Feasibility of implementing an integrated long-term database to advance ecosystem-based management in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin.

The North American Great Lakes have been experiencing dramatic change during the past half-century, highlighting the need for holistic, ecosystem-based approaches to management. To assess interest in ecosystem-based management (EBM), including the value of a comprehensive public database that could serve as a repository for the numerous physical, chemical, and biological monitoring Great Lakes datasets that exist, a two-day workshop was organized, which was attended by 40+ Great Lakes researchers, managers, and stakeholders. While we learned during the workshop that EBM is not an explicit mission of many of the participating research, monitoring, and management agencies, most have been conducting research or monitoring activities that can support EBM. These contributions have ranged from single-resource (-sector) management to considering the ecosystem holistically in a decision-making framework. Workshop participants also identified impediments to implementing EBM, including: 1) high anticipated costs; 2) a lack of EBM success stories to garner agency buy-in; and 3) difficulty in establishing common objectives among groups with different mandates (e.g., water quality vs. fisheries production). We discussed as a group solutions to overcome these impediments, including construction of a comprehensive, research-ready database, a prototype of which was presented at the workshop. We collectively felt that such a database would offer a cost-effective means to support EBM approaches by facilitating research that could help identify useful ecosystem indicators and management targets and allow for management strategy evaluations that account for risk and uncertainty when contemplating future decision-making.

Functional traits reveal the dominant drivers of long-term community change across a North American Great Lake.

Ecosystems worldwide have been impacted by multiple anthropogenic stressors, yet efforts to understand and manage these impacts have been hindered by difficulties in disentangling relative stressor effects. Theoretically, the actions of individual stressors can be delineated based on associated changes in functional traits and these relationships should be generalizable across communities comprised of different species. Thus, combining trait perspectives with community composition data could help to identify the relative influence of different stressors. We evaluated the utility of this combined approach by quantifying shifts in fish species and trait composition in Lake Erie during the past 50 years (1969-2018) in relation to human-driven changes in nutrient inputs, climate warming, and biological invasions. Species and trait shifts were also compared between two Lake Erie basins, which differ in their environmental and biological characteristics, to identify trait responses that were generalizable across different ecosystems versus those that were context dependent. Our analyses revealed consistent species changes across basins, and shifts in feeding and thermal traits, that were primarily associated with altered nutrient inputs (oligotrophication followed by eutrophication). We found no or inconsistent trait-based evidence for the effects of warming and two invasive fishes. Context-dependent trait responses were also evident; nutrient inputs were related to shifts in species tolerant of turbidity in the shallow, eutrophic western basin, which contrasted to shifts between benthopelagic and benthic species in the deeper central basin. Our results reveal the dominant effects of specific stressors on a large freshwater lake and offer a framework for combining species-based and trait-based approaches to delineate the impacts of simultaneous stressors on communities of perturbed natural ecosystems.

Resource supply governs the apparent temperature dependence of animal production in stream ecosystems.

Rising global temperatures are changing how energy and materials move through ecosystems, with potential consequences for the role of animals in these processes. We tested a central prediction of the metabolic scaling framework-the temperature independence of animal community production-using a series of geothermally heated streams and a comprehensive empirical analysis. We show that the apparent temperature sensitivity of animal production was consistent with theory for individuals (Epind  = 0.64 vs. 0.65 eV), but strongly amplified relative to theoretical expectations for communities, both among (Epamong  = 0.67 vs. 0 eV) and within (Epwithin  = 1.52 vs. 0 eV) streams. After accounting for spatial and temporal variation in resources, we show that the apparent positive effect of temperature was driven by resource supply, providing strong empirical support for the temperature independence of invertebrate production and the necessary inclusion of resources in metabolic scaling efforts.

Chemical Changes On, and Through, The Bacterial Envelope in Escherichia coli Mutants Exhibiting Impaired Plasmid Transfer Identified Using Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry.

Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) using a (CO2)6k+ gas cluster ion beam (GCIB) was used to analyze Escherichia coli mutants previously identified as having impaired plasmid transfer capability related to the spread of antibiotic resistance. The subset of mutants selected were expected to result in changes in the bacterial envelope composition through the deletion of genes encoding for FabF, DapF, and Lpp, where the surface sensitivity of ToF-SIMS can be most useful. Analysis of arrays of spotted bacteria allowed changes in the lipid composition of the bacteria to be elucidated using multivariate analysis and confirmed through imaging of individual ion signals. Significant changes in chemical composition were observed, including a surprising loss of cyclopropanated fatty acids in the fabF mutant where FabF is associated with the elongation of FA(16:1) to FA(18:1) and not cyclopropane formation. The ability of the GCIB to generate increased higher mass signals from biological samples allowed intact lipid A (m/z 1796) to be detected on the bacteria and, despite a 40 keV impact energy, depth profiled through the bacterial envelope along with other high mass ions including species at m/z 1820 and 2428, attributed to ECACYC, that were only observed below the surface of the bacteria and were notably absent in the depth profile of the lpp mutant. The analysis provides new insights into the action of the specific pathways targeted in this study and paves the way for whole new avenues for the characterization of intact molecules within the bacterial envelope.

Increased resource use efficiency amplifies positive response of aquatic primary production to experimental warming.

Climate warming is affecting the structure and function of river ecosystems, including their role in transforming and transporting carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). Predicting how river ecosystems respond to warming has been hindered by a dearth of information about how otherwise well-studied physiological responses to temperature scale from organismal to ecosystem levels. We conducted an ecosystem-level temperature manipulation to quantify how coupling of stream ecosystem metabolism and nutrient uptake responded to a realistic warming scenario. A ~3.3°C increase in mean water temperature altered coupling of C, N, and P fluxes in ways inconsistent with single-species laboratory experiments. Net primary production tripled during the year of experimental warming, while whole-stream N and P uptake rates did not change, resulting in 289% and 281% increases in autotrophic dissolved inorganic N and P use efficiency (UE), respectively. Increased ecosystem production was a product of unexpectedly large increases in mass-specific net primary production and autotroph biomass, supported by (i) combined increases in resource availability (via N mineralization and N2 fixation) and (ii) elevated resource use efficiency, the latter associated with changes in community structure. These large changes in C and nutrient cycling could not have been predicted from the physiological effects of temperature alone. Our experiment provides clear ecosystem-level evidence that warming can shift the balance between C and nutrient cycling in rivers, demonstrating that warming will alter the important role of in-stream processes in C, N, and P transformations. Moreover, our results reveal a key role for nutrient supply and use efficiency in mediating responses of primary producers to climate warming.

Shifts in community size structure drive temperature invariance of secondary production in a stream-warming experiment.

A central question at the interface of food-web and climate change research is how secondary production, or the formation of heterotroph biomass over time, will respond to rising temperatures. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) hypothesizes the temperature-invariance of secondary production, driven by matched and opposed forces that reduce biomass of heterotrophs while increasing their biomass turnover rate (production : biomass, or P:B) with warming. To test this prediction at the whole community level, we used a geothermal heat exchanger to experimentally warm a stream in southwest Iceland by 3.8°C for two years. We quantified invertebrate community biomass, production, and P : B in the experimental stream and a reference stream for one year prior to warming and two years during warming. As predicted, warming had a neutral effect on community production, but this result was not driven by opposing effects on community biomass and P:B. Instead, warming had a positive effect on both the biomass and production of larger-bodied, slower-growing taxa (e.g., larval black flies, dipteran predators, snails) and a negative effect on small-bodied taxa with relatively high growth rates (e.g., ostracods, larval chironomids). We attribute these divergent responses to differences in thermal preference between small- vs. large-bodied taxa. Although metabolic demand vs. resource supply must ultimately constrain community production, our results highlight the potential for idiosyncratic community responses to warming, driven by variation in thermal preference and body size within regional species pools.

A global database of nitrogen and phosphorus excretion rates of aquatic animals.

Animals can be important in modulating ecosystem-level nutrient cycling, although their importance varies greatly among species and ecosystems. Nutrient cycling rates of individual animals represent valuable data for testing the predictions of important frameworks such as the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) and ecological stoichiometry (ES). They also represent an important set of functional traits that may reflect both environmental and phylogenetic influences. Over the past two decades, studies of animal-mediated nutrient cycling have increased dramatically, especially in aquatic ecosystems. Here we present a global compilation of aquatic animal nutrient excretion rates. The dataset includes 10,534 observations from freshwater and marine animals of N and/or P excretion rates. These observations represent 491 species, including most aquatic phyla. Coverage varies greatly among phyla and other taxonomic levels. The dataset includes information on animal body size, ambient temperature, taxonomic affiliations, and animal body N:P. This data set was used to test predictions of MTE and ES, as described in Vanni and McIntyre (2016; Ecology DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1582).

Experimental whole-stream warming alters community size structure.

How ecological communities respond to predicted increases in temperature will determine the extent to which Earth's biodiversity and ecosystem functioning can be maintained into a warmer future. Warming is predicted to alter the structure of natural communities, but robust tests of such predictions require appropriate large-scale manipulations of intact, natural habitat that is open to dispersal processes via exchange with regional species pools. Here, we report results of a two-year whole-stream warming experiment that shifted invertebrate assemblage structure via unanticipated mechanisms, while still conforming to community-level metabolic theory. While warming by 3.8 °C decreased invertebrate abundance in the experimental stream by 60% relative to a reference stream, total invertebrate biomass was unchanged. Associated shifts in invertebrate assemblage structure were driven by the arrival of new taxa and a higher proportion of large, warm-adapted species (i.e., snails and predatory dipterans) relative to small-bodied, cold-adapted taxa (e.g., chironomids and oligochaetes). Experimental warming consequently shifted assemblage size spectra in ways that were unexpected, but consistent with thermal optima of taxa in the regional species pool. Higher temperatures increased community-level energy demand, which was presumably satisfied by higher primary production after warming. Our experiment demonstrates how warming reassembles communities within the constraints of energy supply via regional exchange of species that differ in thermal physiological traits. Similar responses will likely mediate impacts of anthropogenic warming on biodiversity and ecosystem function across all ecological communities.

Warming alters coupled carbon and nutrient cycles in experimental streams.

Although much effort has been devoted to quantifying how warming alters carbon cycling across diverse ecosystems, less is known about how these changes are linked to the cycling of bioavailable nitrogen and phosphorus. In freshwater ecosystems, benthic biofilms (i.e. thin films of algae, bacteria, fungi, and detrital matter) act as biogeochemical hotspots by controlling important fluxes of energy and material. Understanding how biofilms respond to warming is thus critical for predicting responses of coupled elemental cycles in freshwater systems. We developed biofilm communities in experimental streamside channels along a gradient of mean water temperatures (7.5-23.6 °C), while closely maintaining natural diel and seasonal temperature variation with a common water and propagule source. Both structural (i.e. biomass, stoichiometry, assemblage structure) and functional (i.e. metabolism, N2 -fixation, nutrient uptake) attributes of biofilms were measured on multiple dates to link changes in carbon flow explicitly to the dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus. Temperature had strong positive effects on biofilm biomass (2.8- to 24-fold variation) and net ecosystem productivity (44- to 317-fold variation), despite extremely low concentrations of limiting dissolved nitrogen. Temperature had surprisingly minimal effects on biofilm stoichiometry: carbon:nitrogen (C:N) ratios were temperature-invariant, while carbon:phosphorus (C:P) ratios declined slightly with increasing temperature. Biofilm communities were dominated by cyanobacteria at all temperatures (>91% of total biovolume) and N2 -fixation rates increased up to 120-fold between the coldest and warmest treatments. Although ammonium-N uptake increased with temperature (2.8- to 6.8-fold variation), the much higher N2 -fixation rates supplied the majority of N to the ecosystem at higher temperatures. Our results demonstrate that temperature can alter how carbon is cycled and coupled to nitrogen and phosphorus. The uncoupling of C fixation from dissolved inorganic nitrogen supply produced large unexpected changes in biofilm development, elemental cycling, and likely downstream exports of nutrients and organic matter.

Smart and Fast Blood Counting of Trace Volumes of Body Fluids from Various Mammalian Species Using a Compact, Custom-Built Microscope Cytometer.

We report an accurate method to count red blood cells, platelets, and white blood cells, as well as to determine hemoglobin in the blood of humans, horses, dogs, cats, and cows. Red and white blood cell counts can also be performed on human body fluids such as cerebrospinal fluid, synovial fluid, and peritoneal fluid. The approach consists of using a compact, custom-built microscope to record large field-of-view, bright-field, and fluorescence images of samples that are stained with a single dye and using automatic algorithms to count blood cells and detect hemoglobin. The total process takes about 15 min, including 5 min for sample preparation, and 10 min for data collection and analysis. The minimum volume of blood needed for the test is 0.5 µL, which allows for minimally invasive sample collection such as using a finger prick rather than a venous draw. Blood counts were compared to gold-standard automated clinical instruments, with excellent agreement between the two methods as determined by a Bland-Altman analysis. Accuracy of counts on body fluids was consistent with hand counting by a trained clinical lab scientist, where our instrument demonstrated an approximately 100-fold lower limit of detection compared to current automated methods. The combination of a compact, custom-built instrument, simple sample collection and preparation, and automated analysis demonstrates that this approach could benefit global health through use in low-resource settings where central hematology laboratories are not accessible.

Does N2 fixation amplify the temperature dependence of ecosystem metabolism?

Variation in resource supply can cause variation in temperature dependences of metabolic processes (e.g., photosynthesis and respiration). Understanding such divergence is particularly important when using metabolic theory to predict ecosystem responses to climate warming. Few studies, however, have assessed the effect of temperature-resource interactions on metabolic processes, particularly in cases where the supply of limiting resources exhibits temperature dependence. We investigated the responses of biomass accrual, gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and N2 fixation to warming during biofilm development in a streamside channel experiment. Areal rates of GPP, CR, biomass accrual, and N2 fixation scaled positively with temperature, showing a 32- to 71-fold range across the temperature gradient (approximately 7 degrees-24 degrees C). Areal N2-fixation rates exhibited apparent activation energies (1.5-2.0 eV; 1 eV = approximately 1.6 x 10(-19) J) approximating the activation energy of the nitrogenase reaction. In contrast, mean apparent activation energies for areal rates of GPP (2.1-2.2 eV) and CR (1.6-1.9 eV) were 6.5- and 2.7-fold higher than estimates based on metabolic theory predictions (i.e., 0.32 and 0.65 eV, respectively) and did not significantly differ from the apparent activation energy observed for N2 fixation. Mass-specific activation energies for N2 fixation (1.4-1.6 eV), GPP (0.3-0.5 eV), and CR (no observed temperature relationship) were near or lower than theoretical predictions. We attribute the divergence of areal activation energies from those predicted by metabolic theory to increases in N2 fixation with temperature, leading to amplified temperature dependences of biomass accrual and areal rates of GPP and R. Such interactions between temperature dependences must be incorporated into metabolic models to improve predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change.

Interactions between temperature and nutrients across levels of ecological organization.

Temperature and nutrient availability play key roles in controlling the pathways and rates at which energy and materials move through ecosystems. These factors have also changed dramatically on Earth over the past century as human activities have intensified. Although significant effort has been devoted to understanding the role of temperature and nutrients in isolation, less is known about how these two factors interact to influence ecological processes. Recent advances in ecological stoichiometry and metabolic ecology provide a useful framework for making progress in this area, but conceptual synthesis and review are needed to help catalyze additional research. Here, we examine known and potential interactions between temperature and nutrients from a variety of physiological, community, and ecosystem perspectives. We first review patterns at the level of the individual, focusing on four traits--growth, respiration, body size, and elemental content--that should theoretically govern how temperature and nutrients interact to influence higher levels of biological organization. We next explore the interactive effects of temperature and nutrients on populations, communities, and food webs by synthesizing information related to community size spectra, biomass distributions, and elemental composition. We use metabolic theory to make predictions about how population-level secondary production should respond to interactions between temperature and resource supply, setting up qualitative predictions about the flows of energy and materials through metazoan food webs. Last, we examine how temperature-nutrient interactions influence processes at the whole-ecosystem level, focusing on apparent vs. intrinsic activation energies of ecosystem processes, how to represent temperature-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models, and patterns with respect to nutrient uptake and organic matter decomposition. We conclude that a better understanding of interactions between temperature and nutrients will be critical for developing realistic predictions about ecological responses to multiple, simultaneous drivers of global change, including climate warming and elevated nutrient supply.

The clot thickens: unusual presentation of a left atrial thrombus.

Left atrial thrombi are a significant cause of cardioembolic morbidity and mortality. Transesophageal echocardiography is the preferred method for complete visualization of atrial thrombi, and has a sensitivity and specificity of up to 100% and 99%, respectively. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging has been shown to be useful in identifying tissue characteristics that may aid in differentiating between atrial myxoma and thrombi. This is an unusual case of a large, free-floating atrial thrombus with a cystic appearance that was surgically removed. The echocardiographic appearance of the cystic atrial mass led to the consideration of another potential etiology for a cardiac mass, namely, atrial myxoma. Histopathologic analyses of the mass led to the final diagnosis of an atrial thrombus.

Climate change and geothermal ecosystems: natural laboratories, sentinel systems, and future refugia.

Understanding and predicting how global warming affects the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems is a key challenge of the 21st century. Isolated laboratory and field experiments testing global change hypotheses have been criticized for being too small-scale and overly simplistic, whereas surveys are inferential and often confound temperature with other drivers. Research that utilizes natural thermal gradients offers a more promising approach and geothermal ecosystems in particular, which span a range of temperatures within a single biogeographic area, allow us to take the laboratory into nature rather than vice versa. By isolating temperature from other drivers, its ecological effects can be quantified without any loss of realism, and transient and equilibrial responses can be measured in the same system across scales that are not feasible using other empirical methods. Embedding manipulative experiments within geothermal gradients is an especially powerful approach, informing us to what extent small-scale experiments can predict the future behaviour of real ecosystems. Geothermal areas also act as sentinel systems by tracking responses of ecological networks to warming and helping to maintain ecosystem functioning in a changing landscape by providing sources of organisms that are preadapted to different climatic conditions. Here, we highlight the emerging use of geothermal systems in climate change research, identify novel research avenues, and assess their roles for catalysing our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to global warming.

Environmental warming increases the importance of high-turnover energy channels in stream food webs.

Warming temperatures are altering communities and trophic networks across Earth's ecosystems. While the overall influence of warming on food webs is often context-dependent, increasing temperatures are predicted to change communities in two fundamental ways: (1) by reducing average body size and (2) by increasing individual metabolic rates. These warming-induced changes have the potential to influence the distribution of food web fluxes, food web stability, and the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic ecological processes shaping community assembly. Here, we quantified patterns and the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes through stream food webs spanning a broad natural temperature gradient (5-27°C). We then related these patterns to species and community trait distributions of mean body size and population biomass turnover (P:B) within and across streams. We predicted that (1) communities in warmer streams would exhibit smaller body size and higher P:B and (2) organic matter fluxes within warmer communities would increasingly skew toward smaller, higher P:B populations. Across the temperature gradient, warmer communities were characterized by smaller body size (~9% per °C) and higher P:B (~7% faster turnover per °C) populations on average. Additionally, organic matter fluxes within warmer streams were increasingly skewed toward higher P:B populations, demonstrating that warming can restructure organic matter fluxes in both an absolute and relative sense. With warming, the relative distribution of organic matter fluxes was decreasingly likely to arise through the random sorting of species, suggesting stronger selection for traits driving high turnover with increasing temperature. Our study suggests that a warming world will favor energy fluxes through "smaller and faster" populations, and that these changes may be more predictable than previously thought.

Understanding temporal variability across trophic levels and spatial scales in freshwater ecosystems.

A tenet of ecology is that temporal variability in ecological structure and processes tends to decrease with increasing spatial scales (from locales to regions) and levels of biological organization (from populations to communities). However, patterns in temporal variability across trophic levels and the mechanisms that produce them remain poorly understood. Here we analyzed the abundance time series of spatially structured communities (i.e., metacommunities) spanning basal resources to top predators from 355 freshwater sites across three continents. Specifically, we used a hierarchical partitioning method to disentangle the propagation of temporal variability in abundance across spatial scales and trophic levels. We then used structural equation modeling to determine if the strength and direction of relationships between temporal variability, synchrony, biodiversity, and environmental and spatial settings depended on trophic level and spatial scale. We found that temporal variability in abundance decreased from producers to tertiary consumers but did so mainly at the local scale. Species population synchrony within sites increased with trophic level, whereas synchrony among communities decreased. At the local scale, temporal variability in precipitation and species diversity were associated with population variability (linear partial coefficient, ß = 0.23) and population synchrony (ß = -0.39) similarly across trophic levels, respectively. At the regional scale, community synchrony was not related to climatic or spatial predictors, but the strength of relationships between metacommunity variability and community synchrony decreased systematically from top predators (ß = 0.73) to secondary consumers (ß = 0.54), to primary consumers (ß = 0.30) to producers (ß = 0). Our results suggest that mobile predators may often stabilize metacommunities by buffering variability that originates at the base of food webs. This finding illustrates that the trophic structure of metacommunities, which integrates variation in organismal body size and its correlates, should be considered when investigating ecological stability in natural systems. More broadly, our work advances the notion that temporal stability is an emergent property of ecosystems that may be threatened in complex ways by biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation.

Watershed- and reach-scale drivers of phosphorus retention and release by streambed sediment in a western Lake Erie watershed during summer.

Reducing phosphorus (P) concentrations in aquatic ecosystems, is necessary to improve water quality and reduce the occurrence of harmful cyanobacterial algal blooms. Managing P reduction requires information on the role rivers play in P transport from land to downstream water bodies, but we have a poor understanding of when and where river systems are P sources or sinks. During the summers of 2019 and 2021, we sampled streambed sediment at 78 sites throughout the Maumee River network (a major source of P loads to Lake Erie) focusing on the zero equilibrium P concentration (EPC0), the soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration at which sediment neither sorbs nor desorbs P. We used structural equation modeling to identify direct and indirect drivers of EPC0. Stream sediment was a P sink at 40 % and 67 % of sites in 2019 and 2021, respectively. During both years, spatial variation in EPC0 was shaped by stream water SRP concentrations, sediment P saturation, and sediment physicochemical characteristics. In turn, SRP concentrations and sediment P saturation (PSR) were influenced by agricultural land use and stream size. Effect of stream size differed among years with stream size having a greater effect on SRP in 2019 and on PSR in 2021. Streambed sediment is currently a net P sink across the sites sampled in the Maumee River network during summer, but sediment at these locations, especially sites in headwater streams, may become a P source if stream water SRP concentrations decrease. Our results improve the understanding of watershed- and reach-scale controls on EPC0 but also indicate the need for further research on how changes in SRP concentration as a result of conservation management implementation influences the role of streambed sediment in P transport to Lake Erie.

River phosphorus cycling during high flow may constrain Lake Erie cyanobacteria blooms.

Cyanobacterial harmful blooms have been increasing worldwide, due in part to excessive phosphorus (P) losses from agriculture-dominated watersheds. Unfortunately, cyanobacteria bloom management is often complicated by uncertainty associated with river P cycling. River P cycling mediates P exports during low flow but has been assumed to be unimportant during high flows. Thus, we examined interactions between dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and suspended sediment P during high flows in the Maumee River network, focusing on March-June Maumee River DRP exports, which fuel recurring cyanobacteria blooms in Lake Erie. We estimate that during 2003-2019 March to June high flow events, P sorption reduced DRP exports by an average of 13-27%, depending upon the colloidal-P:DRP ratio, decreasing the bioavailability of P exports, and potentially constraining cyanobacteria blooms by 13-40%. Phosphorus sorption was likely lower during 2003-2019 than 1975-2002 due to reductions in suspended sediment loads, associated with soil-erosion-minimizing agricultural practices. This unintended outcome of erosion management has likely decreased P sorption, increased DRP exports to Lake Erie, and subsequent cyanobacteria blooms. In other watersheds, DRP-sediment P interactions during high flow could have a positive or negative effect on DRP exports; therefore, P management should consider riverine P cycles, particularly during high flow events, to avoid undermining expensive P mitigation efforts.

Temporal scope influences ecosystem driver-response relationships: A case study of Lake Erie with implications for ecosystem-based management.

Understanding environmental driver-response relationships is critical to the implementation of effective ecosystem-based management. Ecosystems are often influenced by multiple drivers that operate on different timescales and may be nonstationary. In turn, contrasting views of ecosystem state and structure could arise depending on the temporal perspective of analysis. Further, assessment of multiple ecosystem components (e.g., biological indicators) may serve to identify different key drivers and connections. To explore how the timescale of analysis and data richness can influence the identification of driver-response relationships within a large, dynamic ecosystem, this study analyzed long-term (1969-2018) data from Lake Erie (USA-Canada). Data were compiled on multiple biological, physical, chemical, and socioeconomic components of the ecosystem to quantify trends and identify potential key drivers during multiple time intervals (20 to 50 years duration), using zooplankton, bird, and fish community metrics as indicators of ecosystem change. Concurrent temporal shifts of many variables occurred during the 1980s, but asynchronous dynamics were evident among indicator taxa. The strengths and rank orders of predictive drivers shifted among intervals and were sometimes taxon-specific. Drivers related to nutrient loading and lake trophic status were consistently strong predictors of temporal patterns for all indicators; however, within the longer intervals, measures of agricultural land use were the strongest predictors, whereas within shorter intervals, the stronger predictors were measures of tributary or in-lake nutrient concentrations. Physical drivers also tended to increase in predictive ability within shorter intervals. The results highlight how the time interval examined can filter influences of lower-frequency, slower drivers and higher-frequency, faster drivers. Understanding ecosystem change in support of ecosystem-based management requires consideration of both the temporal perspective of analysis and the chosen indicators, as both can influence which drivers are identified as most predictive of ecosystem trends at that timescale.

Light-mediated thresholds in stream-water nutrient composition in a river network.

The elemental composition of solutes transported by rivers reflects combined influences of surrounding watersheds and transformations within stream networks, yet comparatively little is known about downstream changes in effects of watershed loading vs. in-channel processes. In the forested watershed of a river under a mediterranean hydrologic regime, we examined the influence of longitudinal changes in environmental conditions on water-column nutrient composition during summer base flow across a network of sites ranging from strongly heterotrophic headwater streams to larger, more autotrophic sites downstream. Small streams (0.1-10 km2 watershed area) had longitudinally similar nutrient concentration and composition with low (approximately 2) dissolved nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) ratios. Abrupt deviations from this pattern were observed in larger streams with watershed areas > 100 km2 where insolation and algal abundance and production rapidly increased. Downstream, phosphorus and silica concentrations decreased by > 50% compared to headwater streams, and dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen increased by approximately 3-6 times. Decreasing dissolved P and increasing dissolved N raised stream-water N:P to 46 at the most downstream sites, suggesting a transition from N limitation in headwaters to potential P limitation in larger channels. We hypothesize that these changes were mediated by increasing algal photosynthesis and N fixation by benthic algal assemblages, which, in response to increasing light availability, strongly altered stream-water nutrient concentration and stoichiometry in larger streams and rivers.