Pregabalin poisoning: Evaluation of dose-toxicity relationship.

CONTEXT: Pregabalin poisoning is mostly benign, although coma and convulsions occasionally occur. AIM: To determine the dose-toxicity relationship of pregabalin. METHODS: Dose-toxicity data of isolated pregabalin poisonings were collected from (1) a prospective study performed by the Dutch Poisons Information Centre (4 April 2014 to 4 October 2016) and from (2) case reports and case series reported in literature. Poisonings were graded using the Poisoning Severity Score (PSS) and the relationship between dose (mg kg-1 ) and PSS was evaluated. RESULTS: In our study (n = 21 patients), the most commonly observed symptoms were drowsiness (62%), confusion (29%) and apathy (24%). PSS was none in three (14%), minor in 15 (71%), and moderate in three patients (14%). Most case series also reported a PSS of none to minor in the majority of poisonings (69-100%). For 34 individual patients (21 from our study and 13 from literature), detailed data on dose and clinical course were available to examine the dose-toxicity relationship. The median dose was significantly lower in the PSS none-minor group ("benign") (8.6 mg kg-1 , interquartile range (IQ25-75) 5.0-17.6 mg kg-1 ) than in the PSS moderate-severe group ("significant toxicity") (46.7 mg kg-1 , IQ25-75 21.3-64.3 mg kg-1 ); estimate of the median difference = 27.3 mg kg-1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 10-48.6). CONCLUSIONS: In general, higher pregabalin doses result in more severe poisonings. Below 20 mg kg-1 the majority of patients (83%) only suffer from mild poisoning. However, large interindividual differences exist in pregabalin-induced toxicity. Therefore, pre-hospital triage should not only include pregabalin dose, but also underlying illnesses, co-exposures and reported symptoms.

Predicting the outcome in poisoned patients: look at the past!

INTRODUCTION: When predicting future events, we often rely on analyzing past occurrences and projecting them forward. This methodology is crucial in various fields, including toxicology, in which predicting outcomes in poisoned patients plays a vital role in guiding treatment decisions and improving patient care. IMPORTANCE OF PREDICTING OUTCOMES IN POISONED PATIENTS: In cases of poisoning, understanding a patient's medical history, current physiological status, and the toxicokinetics of the ingested substance is essential for predicting potential outcomes and determining appropriate interventions. WHAT TO PREDICT?: Predicting whether an intoxicated patient needs (further) treatment or even admission to the hospital is one of the most difficult decisions a clinician needs to make. The prediction of the course of an intoxication often lacks crucial information, leaving physicians with a sense of uncertainty in treating and advising patients. A significant source of this uncertainty stems from patients' limited awareness of the specific chemical(s) causing their symptoms, making a targeted approach challenging. Adding to the complexity, both patients and physicians frequently lack knowledge of the exposure dose, onset time, and potential interactions, further complicating the prediction of symptom progression. Patients are commonly placed in observation wards until the pharmacodynamic effects have diminished, leading to extended observation periods and unnecessary healthcare utilization and costs. Therefore, a key objective of a predictive model is to determine the necessity for intensive care unit admission. PREDICTING THE REQUIREMENT FOR ADMISSION TO AN INTENSIVE CARE UNIT: Factors such as age, Glasgow Coma Scale, and specific comorbidities like dysrhythmias and chronic respiratory insufficiency significantly influence the likelihood of intensive care unit admission. By examining a patient's trajectory based on past medical history and organ function deterioration, clinicians can better anticipate the need for critical care support. ENHANCING PREDICTION MODELS FOR IMPROVED PATIENT CARE: To enhance prediction models, leveraging modern methodologies like machine learning on large datasets (big data) are crucial. These advanced techniques can uncover previously unknown patient groups with similar outcomes or treatment responses, leading to more personalized and effective interventions. Regular updates to clustering, discrimination, and calibration processes ensure that predictive models remain accurate and relevant as new data emerges. CONCLUSIONS: The field of clinical toxicology stands to benefit greatly from the creation and integration of large datasets to advance toxicological prognostication. By embracing innovative approaches and incorporating diverse data sources, clinicians can enhance their ability to predict outcomes in poisoned patients and improve overall patient management strategies.

Significant Increase in Deliberate Self-Poisonings Among Adolescents During the Second Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a decline in mental health of adolescents. The aim of this study was to analyze the rate of deliberate self-poisonings (DSPs) among adolescents reported to the Dutch Poisons Information Center before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A retrospective study from 2016 until 2021 was performed to characterize DSPs among adolescents, and to analyze trends in the number of DSPs. All DSPs among adolescents with the age of 13 up to and including 17 years were included. DSP characteristics included: age, gender, bodyweight, used substance, dose, and treatment advice. Trends in the number of DSPs were analyzed using time series decomposition and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models. RESULTS: Six thousand nine hundred fifteen DSPs in adolescents were recorded from January first 2016 until December 31st 2021. Females were involved in 84% of adolescent DSPs. A strong increase in the number of DSPs was observed in 2021 (45% increase compared to 2020), which deviated from the predicted trend based on previous years. This increase was most prominent in 13-, 14-, and 15-year-old female adolescents. Commonly involved drugs were paracetamol, ibuprofen, methylphenidate, fluoxetine, and quetiapine. The contribution of paracetamol rose from 33% in 2019 to 40% in 2021. DISCUSSION: The strong increase in the number of DSPs during the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic suggests that long-term containment measures such as quarantines, lockdowns, and school closures may enhance self-harm behavior among adolescents, especially among younger females (13-15 years of age), with a preference for paracetamol as DSP substance.

Estimation of the risk of local and systemic effects in infants after ingestion of low-concentrated weak acids from descaling products.

INTRODUCTION: The accidental ingestion of diluted household descaling products by infants is a phenomenon that poison control centers regularly encounter. Feeding infants with baby milk prepared with water from electric kettles still containing descaler is a common way of exposure. This study aimed to determine the risks related to ingestion of (diluted) descalers by infants. METHODS: pH measurements were performed using acetic acid and three different commercially available electric kettle descalers. The pH of different dilutions was measured in the absence or presence of baby milk powder. In addition, an overview was made of pH values of different electric kettle descalers as given by the product information of the manufacturer. Finally, a simple pharmacokinetic (PK) model was used to predict changes in blood pH in infants after ingestion of acetic acid, which is the most commonly used descaler. RESULTS: Several commercially available electric kettle descalers have a pH <2. Even after diluting such descalers up to 10 times the pH can remain low. The addition of milk powder increases the pH of descalers containing weaker acids, with a pH >1.5, while descalers with stronger acids and pH <1 show little pH increase after the addition of milk powder. Finally, a simple PBPK model for the ingestion of acetic acid predicted that the ingestion of larger amounts of acetic acid (>1000 mg) by an infant could result in relevant changes in blood pH. CONCLUSIONS: Commercially available electric kettle descaling products may pose a health risk to infants in case of accidental ingestion since the pH of some of these products can be very low, even when diluted 10-times or in the presence of baby milk powder. Oral exposure of infants to the common descaler acetic acid, after accidental preparation of baby milk with cleaning vinegar, will probably not result in serious local effects, but changes in blood pH cannot be excluded when larger amounts of acetic acid are ingested.

Cannabinoid modulations of resting state EEG θ power and working memory are correlated in humans.

Object representations in working memory depend on neural firing that is phase-locked to oscillations in the theta band (4-8 Hz). Cannabis intake disrupts synchronicity of theta oscillations and interferes with memory performance. Sixteen participants smoked cigarettes containing 0.0, 29.3, 49.1, or 69.4 mg Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in a randomized crossover design and performed working memory and general attention tasks. Dose-dependent effects of THC were observed for resting state EEG theta and beta power, working memory (per-item search time), and attentional performance (percent errors and RT). The THC effects on EEG theta power and memory performance were correlated, whereas other EEG and behavioral effects were not. These findings confirm and extend previous results in rodents and humans, and corroborate a neurocomputational model that postulates that temporal aspects of information processing in working memory depend causally on nested oscillations in the theta and gamma (>30 Hz) bands.

Disposition of smoked cannabis with high Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol content: a kinetic model.

INTRODUCTION: No model exists to describe the disposition and kinetics of inhaled cannabis containing a high THC dose. We aimed to develop a kinetic model providing estimates of the THC serum concentrations after smoking cannabis cigarettes containing high THC doses (up to 69mg THC). METHODS: Twenty-four male non-daily cannabis users smoked cannabis cigarettes containing 29.3mg, 49.1mg, and 69.4mg THC. Blood samples were collected over a period of 0-8h and serum THC concentrations were measured. A two-compartment open model was fitted on the individual observed data. RESULTS: Large inter-individual variability was observed in the pharmacokinetic parameters. The median pharmacokinetic parameters generated by the model were Cmax=175ng/mL, Tmax=14min, and AUC0-8h=8150ng×min/mL for the 69.4mg THC dose. Median model results show an almost linear dose response relation for Cmax/Dose=2.8×10(-6)/mL and AUC0-8h/Dose=136×10(-6)min/mL. However, for increasing dose level, there was a clear decreasing trend: Cmax/Dose=3.4, 2.6 and 2.5×10(-6)/mL and AUC0-8h/Dose=157, 133 and 117×10(-6)min/mL for the 29.3, 49.1 and 69.4mg dose, respectively. Within the restriction of 8h of observation, the apparent terminal half life of THC was 150min. CONCLUSION: The model offers insight into the pharmacokinetics of THC in recreational cannabis users smoking cannabis containing high doses of THC mixed with tobacco. The model is an objective method for providing serum THC concentrations up to 8h after smoking cannabis with a high THC content (up to 23%).

Clinical Pharmacokinetics and Impact of Hematocrit on Monitoring and Dosing of Tacrolimus Early After Heart and Lung Transplantation.

The calcineurin inhibitor tacrolimus is an effective immunosuppressant and is extensively used in solid organ transplantation. In the first week after heart and lung transplantation, tacrolimus dosing is difficult due to considerable physiological changes because of clinical instability, and toxicity often occurs, even when tacrolimus concentrations are within the therapeutic range. The physiological and pharmacokinetic changes are outlined. Excessive variability in bioavailability may lead to higher interoccasion (dose-to-dose) variability than interindividual variability of pharmacokinetic parameters. Intravenous tacrolimus dosing may circumvent this high variability in bioavailability. Moreover, the interpretation of whole-blood concentrations is discussed. The unbound concentration is related to hematocrit, and changes in hematocrit may increase toxicity, even within the therapeutic range of whole-blood concentrations. Therefore, in clinically unstable patients with varying hematocrit, aiming at the lower therapeutic level is recommended and tacrolimus personalized dosing based on hematocrit-corrected whole-blood concentrations may be used to control the unbound tacrolimus plasma concentrations and subsequently reduce toxicity.

Unbound Plasma, Total Plasma, and Whole-Blood Tacrolimus Pharmacokinetics Early After Thoracic Organ Transplantation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Therapeutic drug monitoring of tacrolimus whole-blood concentrations is standard care in thoracic organ transplantation. Nevertheless, toxicity may appear with alleged therapeutic concentrations possibly related to variability in unbound concentrations. However, pharmacokinetic data on unbound concentrations are not available. The objective of this study was to quantify the pharmacokinetics of whole-blood, total, and unbound plasma tacrolimus in patients early after heart and lung transplantation. METHODS: Twelve-hour tacrolimus whole-blood, total, and unbound plasma concentrations of 30 thoracic organ recipients were analyzed with high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry directly after transplantation. Pharmacokinetic modeling was performed using non-linear mixed-effects modeling. RESULTS: Plasma concentration was < 1% of the whole-blood concentration. Maximum binding capacity of erythrocytes was directly proportional to hematocrit and estimated at 2700 pg/mL (95% confidence interval 1750-3835) with a dissociation constant of 0.142 pg/mL (95% confidence interval 0.087-0.195). The inter-individual variability in the binding constants was considerable (27% maximum binding capacity, and 29% for the linear binding constant of plasma). CONCLUSIONS: Tacrolimus association with erythrocytes was high and suggested a non-linear distribution at high concentrations. Monitoring hematocrit-corrected whole-blood tacrolimus concentrations might improve clinical outcomes in clinically unstable thoracic organ transplants. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NTR 3912/EudraCT 2012-001909-24.

High Variability of Whole-Blood Tacrolimus Pharmacokinetics Early After Thoracic Organ Transplantation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Oral tacrolimus is initiated perioperatively in heart and lung transplantation patients. There have been few studies on oral tacrolimus pharmacokinetics early post-transplantation, even though tacrolimus-related toxicity may occur early, potentially leading to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, we aimed to study the pharmacokinetics of oral tacrolimus in thoracic organ recipients during the first days after transplantation. METHODS: We conducted a pharmacokinetic study in 30 thoracic organ transplants at intensive care at the University Medical Center Utrecht in the first week post-transplantation. Twelve-hour whole-blood tacrolimus profiles were examined using high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) and analysed via population pharmacokinetic modelling. RESULTS: The concentration-time profiles showed high variability. Concentrations at 12 h were outside the target range in 69% of the cases. A two-compartment model with mixed first-order and zero-order absorption adequately described tacrolimus concentrations. The typical value of the apparent clearance was 19.6 L/h (95% CI 16.2-22.9), and the apparent distribution volumes of central and peripheral compartments, V1 and V2, were 231 L (95% CI 199-267) and 521 L (95% CI 441-634), respectively. Inter-occasion (dose-to-dose) variability far exceeded the interindividual variability (IIV), with an estimated variability in relative bioavailability of 55% (95% CI 48.5-64.4). CONCLUSIONS: The high variability of tacrolimus pharmacokinetics early after thoracic organ transplantation is largely due to excessive variability in bioavailability, making individualised dosing based on measured concentrations futile. To bypass this bioavailability issue, we suggest administering tacrolimus intravenously and aiming below the upper therapeutic range early post-transplantation. Clinical Trial Registraion: NTR 3912/EudraCT 2012-001909-24.

A quarter of admitted poisoned patients have a mild poisoning and require no treatment: An observational study.

BACKGROUND: Poisoned patients are frequently admitted following Emergency Department (ED) presentation, while the necessity of such admissions is hardly investigated. We determined the proportion and characteristics of poisoned patients who were admitted, but in retrospect had an uneventful admission. METHODS: For this observational cohort study, all patients presented to the ED of a Dutch University Hospital with various poisonings during a 1.5-year period (January 2015-July 2016) were included. The uneventfulness of admissions, defined as patients with a low Poisoning Severity Score (PSS) who received no treatment, was determined in retrospect. RESULTS: We included 417 patients who visited the ED for poisoning. 247 Patients were admitted: 30% to a general ward, 58% to a MCU, and 12% to the ICU. The poisoning severity scores of the admitted patients were none to mild in 38%, moderate to severe in 59%, and fatal in 2%. Upon admission, 60% of the patients received treatment. In retrospect, 77% of the admitted patients had a moderate, severe or fatal poisoning and/or required treatment. However, 23% of the admitted patients had a mild poisoning and required no treatment. This group involved younger patients (median age of 23 versus 42 years) and a higher proportion of patients reporting exposure to only one substance (65% versus 51%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of poisoned patients presented to the ED was admitted, while in retrospect, a quarter of these admissions were uneventful. Predictive parameters should be sought to identify patients who can be sent home safely.

Delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) serum concentrations and pharmacological effects in males after smoking a combination of tobacco and cannabis containing up to 69 mg THC.

RATIONALE: Delta9-Tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is the main active constituent of cannabis. In recent years, the average THC content of some cannabis cigarettes has increased up to approximately 60 mg per cigarette (20% THC cigarettes). The pharmacokinetics of THC after smoking cannabis cigarettes containing more than approximately 35 mg THC (3.55% THC cigarettes) is unknown. To be able to perform suitable exposure risk analysis, it is important to know if there is a linear relation at higher doses. OBJECTIVES: The present study aimed to characterise the pharmacokinetics of THC, the active metabolite 11-OH-THC and the inactive metabolite THC-COOH after smoking a combination of tobacco and cannabis containing high THC doses. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This double-blind, placebo-controlled, four-way, cross-over study included 24 male non-daily cannabis users (two to nine joints per month). Participants were randomly assigned to smoke cannabis cigarettes containing 29.3, 49.1 and 69.4 mg THC and a placebo. Serial serum samples collected over a period of 0-8 h were analysed by liquid chromatography electrospray tandem mass spectrometry. Effects on heart rate, blood pressure and 'high' feeling were also measured. RESULTS: Mean maximal concentrations (Cmax) were 135.1, 202.9 and 231.0 microg/L for THC and 9.2, 16.4 and 15.8 microg/L for 11-OH-THC after smoking a 29.3-, 49.1- and 69.4-mg THC cigarette, respectively. A large inter-individual variability in Cmax was observed. Heart rate and 'high' feeling significantly increased with increasing THC dose. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that the known linear association between THC dose and THC serum concentration also applies for high THC doses.

Association of Whole Blood Tacrolimus Concentrations with Kidney Injury in Heart Transplantation Patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequently observed after heart transplantation and is associated with morbidity and mortality. However, many confounding factors also contribute to the development of AKI in heart transplants. We hypothesized that supratherapeutic whole-blood tacrolimus trough concentrations are associated with AKI. METHODS: In a retrospective observational cohort from April 2005 to December 2012, all adult heart transplantation patients were included. AKI was assessed in the first 2 weeks after transplantation as classified by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes Network (KDIGO). Whole-blood tacrolimus trough concentrations were determined from day 1 to day 14 and at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months post-transplantation. The therapeutic range was 9 to 15 ng/ml in the first 2 months and tapered to 5-8 ng/ml thereafter. The relationship between supratherapeutic tacrolimus trough concentrations and AKI was evaluated. The impact of various potentially confounding factors on tacrolimus concentrations and AKI was considered. RESULTS: We included 110 patients. AKI occurred in 57% of patients in the first week. Recovery from AKI was seen in 24%. The occurrence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) was 19% at 1 year. Whole-blood tacrolimus trough concentrations were often supratherapeutic and, despite correction for confounding factors, independently associated with AKI (OR 1.66; 95% CI 1.20-2.31). CONCLUSIONS: Supratherapeutic whole-blood tacrolimus trough concentrations are independently associated with the development of AKI in adult heart transplantation patients. More stringent dosing of tacrolimus early after transplantation may be critical in preserving the kidney function.

Modeling the effect of succimer (DMSA; dimercaptosuccinic acid) chelation therapy in patients poisoned by lead.

CONTEXT: Kinetic models could assist clinicians potentially in managing cases of lead poisoning. Several models exist that can simulate lead kinetics but none of them can predict the effect of chelation in lead poisoning. Our aim was to devise a model to predict the effect of succimer (dimercaptosuccinic acid; DMSA) chelation therapy on blood lead concentrations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We integrated a two-compartment kinetic succimer model into an existing PBPK lead model and produced a Chelation Lead Therapy (CLT) model. The accuracy of the model's predictions was assessed by simulating clinical observations in patients poisoned by lead and treated with succimer. The CLT model calculates blood lead concentrations as the sum of the background exposure and the acute or chronic lead poisoning. The latter was due either to ingestion of traditional remedies or occupational exposure to lead-polluted ambient air. The exposure duration was known. The blood lead concentrations predicted by the CLT model were compared to the measured blood lead concentrations. RESULTS: Pre-chelation blood lead concentrations ranged between 99 and 150 µg/dL. The model was able to simulate accurately the blood lead concentrations during and after succimer treatment. The pattern of urine lead excretion was successfully predicted in some patients, while poorly predicted in others. CONCLUSIONS: Our model is able to predict blood lead concentrations after succimer therapy, at least, in situations where the duration of lead exposure is known.

Modelling dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) plasma kinetics in humans.

CONTEXT: No kinetic models presently exist which simulate the effect of chelation therapy on lead blood concentrations in lead poisoning. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to develop a kinetic model that describes the kinetics of dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA; succimer), a commonly used chelating agent, that could be used in developing a lead chelating model. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This was a kinetic modelling study. We used a two-compartment model, with a non-systemic gastrointestinal compartment (gut lumen) and the whole body as one systemic compartment. The only data available from the literature were used to calibrate the unknown model parameters. The calibrated model was then validated by comparing its predictions with measured data from three different experimental human studies. RESULTS: The model predicted total DMSA plasma and urine concentrations measured in three healthy volunteers after ingestion of DMSA 10 mg/kg. The model was then validated by using data from three other published studies; it predicted concentrations within a factor of two, representing inter-human variability. CONCLUSIONS: A simple kinetic model simulating the kinetics of DMSA in humans has been developed and validated. The interest of this model lies in the future potential to use it to predict blood lead concentrations in lead-poisoned patients treated with DMSA.

Evaluation of semi-generic PBTK modeling for emergency risk assessment after acute inhalation exposure to volatile hazardous chemicals.

BACKGROUND: Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic Models (PBTK) may facilitate emergency risk assessment after chemical incidents with inhalation exposure, but they are rarely used due to their relative complexity and skill requirements. We aimed to tackle this problem by evaluating a semi-generic PBTK model built in MS Excel for nine chemicals that are widely-used and often released in a chemical incident. MATERIAL & METHODS: The semi-generic PBTK model was used to predict blood concentration-time curves using inhalation exposure scenarios from human volunteer studies, case reports and hypothetical exposures at Emergency Response Planning Guideline, Level 3 (ERPG-3) levels.(2) Predictions using this model were compared with measured blood concentrations from volunteer studies or case reports, as well as blood concentrations predicted by chemical-specific models. The performances of the semi-generic model were evaluated on biological rationale, accuracy, and ease of use and range of application. RESULTS: Our results indicate that the semi-generic model can be easily used to predict blood levels for eight out of nine parent chemicals (dichloromethane, benzene, xylene, styrene, toluene, isopropanol trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene). However, for methanol, 2-propanol and dichloromethane the semi-generic model could not cope with the endogenous production of methanol and of acetone (being a metabolite of 2-propanol) nor could it simulate the formation of HbCO, which is one of the toxic end-points of dichloromethane. The model is easy and intuitive to use by people who are not so familiar with toxicokinetic models. CONCLUSION: A semi-generic PBTK modeling approach can be used as a 'quick-and-dirty' method to get a crude estimate of the exposure dose.

Methylphenidate intoxications in children and adults: exposure circumstances and evidence-based dose threshold for pre-hospital triage.

CONTEXT: Methylphenidate intoxications mostly have a relatively mild course, although serious complications can occur. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to characterize methylphenidate exposures and reassess our current dose threshold for hospital referral (2 mg/kg). METHODS: In a prospective follow-up study, we analysed 364 consecutive methylphenidate exposures that were reported to the Dutch Poisons Information Center. Patients and/or physicians were surveyed by telephone using standardized questionnaires. Three physicians independently scored the observed severity of the intoxication of each patient as 'no/mild' (observation at home) or 'moderate/severe' (hospital referral necessary). RESULTS: Unintentional exposures (40%) mostly occurred at home involving the patients' own medication or those from a family member. Compared to unintentionally exposed patients, intentionally exposed patients were exposed to relatively high methylphenidate doses (3.1 vs 1.6 mg/kg), more often used immediate release methylphenidate formulations (62 vs 34%) and more frequently had concomitant exposures (71 vs 17%). Severe symptoms like convulsions or coma were reported only in patients with concomitant exposures. Following exposure to methylphenidate only (i.e. no concomitant exposures), the most commonly reported symptoms were dry mucosa, headache, agitation, sleepiness and tachycardia. Our results show that the reported methylphenidate dose is predictive of the observed severity of the intoxication and can therefore aid in pre-hospital triage. CONCLUSION: We increased our current dose threshold for hospital referral from 2 to 3 mg/kg. In addition, we will refer patients at lower doses when clinical symptoms indicate the need for hospital referral. Application of this new dose threshold optimizes triage, thereby reducing unnecessary hospital referral and thus costs, without jeopardising patient safety.

Validation of a model predicting spontaneous pregnancy among subfertile untreated couples.

OBJECTIVE: To provide external validation of the Eimers model, which predicts spontaneous pregnancy among subfertile couples within the first year after the definitive establishment of the diagnostic category. DESIGN: Live birth rates predicted by an adapted version of the Eimers model were tested against observed live birth rates in a Canadian cohort study. SETTING: Fertility clinics in university medical centers. PATIENT(S): One thousand sixty-one couples consulting for subfertility due to cervical hostility, male subfertility, or unexplained subfertility. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): We measured the discriminative ability and reliability of the predictions from the model. RESULT(S): The live birth rate was lower in the Canadian population than in the Eimers population. Overall, the prognostic effect of the predictors did not differ significantly in both populations. The model showed moderate predictive power in the Canadian population. With adjustment of the average live birth rate, the reliability of the model was satisfactory. CONCLUSION(S): The Eimers model gave reliable spontaneous pregnancy predictions in the Canadian validation population after adjustment of the average live birth rate.

A prediction model for selecting patients undergoing in vitro fertilization for elective single embryo transfer.

OBJECTIVE: Construction of a prediction model to enable the selection of patients for elective single ET. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Fertility center in a tertiary referral university hospital. PATIENT(S): Six hundred forty-two women undergoing their first IVF treatment cycle in which no more than two embryos were transferred. INTERVENTION(S): Database analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Ongoing pregnancy and multiple pregnancy. RESULT(S): In multivariate analysis, the best predictors for ongoing pregnancy were female age, the number of retrieved oocytes, the developmental stage score and the morphology score of the two best embryos available for transfer, and the day of transfer. Younger age and high quality of transferred embryos were the best predictors for increased risk of multiple pregnancy. The resulting model enables the calculation of probabilities of pregnancy and twin pregnancy. Depending on embryo quality, there is a threshold age under which the chance of singleton pregnancy is higher if one embryo is transferred compared with two embryos. CONCLUSION(S): Application of this model may enable a reduction in the chance of twin pregnancy without compromising singleton pregnancy rates in a subgroup of patients undergoing IVF.