Modelling the potential impact of global hepatitis B vaccination on the burden of chronic hepatitis B in the United States.

About 80% of persons with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the United States are non-US-born. Despite improvements in infant hepatitis B vaccination globally since 2000, work remains to attain the World Health Organization's (WHO) global 2030 goal of 90% vaccination. We explore the impacts on the United States of global progress in hepatitis B vaccination since 2000 and of achieving WHO hepatitis B vaccination goals. We simulated immigrants with HBV infection arriving to the United States from 2000 to 2070 using models of the 10 countries from which the largest numbers of individuals with HBV infection were born. We estimated costs in the United States among these cohorts using a disease simulation model. We simulated three scenarios: a scenario with no progress in infant vaccination for hepatitis B since 2000 (baseline), current (2020) progress and achieving WHO 2030 goals for hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate current hepatitis B vaccination progress since the 2000 baseline in these 10 countries will lead to 468,686 fewer HBV infections, avoid 35,582 hepatitis B-related deaths and save $4.2 billion in the United States through 2070. Achieving the WHO 2030 90% hepatitis B infant vaccination targets could lead to an additional 16,762 fewer HBV infections, 989 fewer hepatitis B-related deaths and save $143 million through 2070. Global hepatitis B vaccination since 2000 reduced prevalence of HBV infection in the United States. Achieving the WHO 2030 infant vaccination goals globally could lead to over one hundred million dollars in additional savings.

Use of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines in Adults Aged ≥60 Years: Updated Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices - United States, 2024.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory illness and hospitalization in older adults during fall and winter in the United States. The 2023-2024 RSV season was the first during which RSV vaccination was recommended for U.S. adults aged ≥60 years, using shared clinical decision-making. On June 26, 2024, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted to update this recommendation as follows: a single dose of any Food and Drug Administration-approved RSV vaccine (Arexvy [GSK]; Abrysvo [Pfizer]; or mResvia [Moderna]) is now recommended for all adults aged ≥75 years and for adults aged 60-74 years who are at increased risk for severe RSV disease. Adults who have previously received RSV vaccine should not receive another dose. This report summarizes the evidence considered for these updated recommendations, including postlicensure data on vaccine effectiveness and safety, and provides clinical guidance for the use of RSV vaccines in adults aged ≥60 years. These updated recommendations are intended to maximize RSV vaccination coverage among persons most likely to benefit, by clarifying who is at highest risk and by reducing implementation barriers associated with the previous shared clinical decision-making recommendation. Continued postlicensure monitoring will guide future recommendations.

Cost-effectiveness of Staple Line Reinforcement in Laparoscopic Sleeve Gastrectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of staple-line reinforcement in laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Exponential increases in surgical costs have underscored the critical need for evidence-based methods to determine the relative value of surgical devices. One such device is staple-line reinforcement, thought to decrease bleeding rates in laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. METHODS: Two intervention arms were modeled, staple-line reinforcement and standard nonreinforced stapling. Bleed and leak rates and 30-day treatment costs were obtained from national and state registries. Quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) values were drawn from previous literature. Device prices were drawn from institutional data. A final incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 346,530 patient records from 2012 to 2018 were included. Complication rates for the reinforced and standard cohorts were 0.05% for major bleed in both cohorts ( P = 0.8841); 0.45% compared with 0.59% for minor bleed ( P < 0.0001); and 0.24% compared with 0.26% for leak ( P = 0.4812). Median cost for a major bleed was $5552 ($3287, $16,817) and $2406 ($1861, $3484) for a minor bleed. Median leak cost was $9897 ($4589, $21,619) and median cost for patients who did not experience a bleed, leak, or other serious complication was $1908 ($1712, $2739). Mean incremental cost of reinforced stapling compared with standard was $819.60/surgery. Net QALY gain with reinforced stapling compared with standard was 0.00002. The resultant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $40,553,000/QALY. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses failed to produce a value below $150,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with standard stapling, reinforced stapling reduces minor postoperative bleeding but not major bleeding or leaks and is not cost-effective if routinely used in laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy.

Cost-effectiveness of surgical treatment of thumb carpometacarpal joint arthritis: a value of information study.

BACKGROUND: Thumb carpometacarpal (CMC) joint arthritis is one of the most prevalent arthritic conditions commonly treated with trapeziectomy alone or trapeziectomy with ligament reconstruction and tendon interposition (LRTI). We evaluate the cost-effectiveness and value of perfect and sample information of trapeziectomy alone, LRTI, and non-operative treatment. METHODS: A societal perspective decision tree was modeled. To understand the value of future research in comparing quality-of-life after trapeziectomy, LRTI, and non-operative management we characterized uncertainty by fitting distributions to EQ-5D utility data published from the United Kingdom hand surgery registry. We used Monte Carlo simulation for the probabilistic sensitivity analysis and to evaluate the value of perfect and sample information. RESULTS: Both trapeziectomy alone and LRTI were cost-effective compared to non-operative management ($2,540 and $3,511/QALY respectively). Trapeziectomy alone (base case total cost $8,251, QALY 14.08) was dominant compared to LRTI (base case total cost $8,798, QALY 13.34). However, probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested there is a 12.5% chance LRTI may be preferred at a willingness-to-pay of $50,000/QALY. Sensitivity analysis revealed postoperative utilities are the most influential factors in determining cost-effectiveness. The value of perfect information was approximately $1,503/person. A study evaluating the quality-of-life of 1,000 patients in each arm undergoing trapeziectomy alone or LRTI could provide an expected $1,117 of information value. With approximately 40,000 CMC arthroplasties performed each year in the U.S., the annual value is close to $45 million. CONCLUSIONS: Trapeziectomy without LRTI appears to be the most cost-effective procedure in treating late-stage CMC arthritis and should be considered as first-line surgical treatment. There is substantial societal value in conducting additional research to better understand the relative quality-of-life improvements gained from these two common hand surgeries.

Preferences and experiences of pediatricians on implementing national guidelines on universal routine screening of adolescents for major depressive disorder: A qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: To explore the preferences of pediatricians for key factors around the implementation of universal routine screening guidelines for major depressive disorder in adolescent patients in a primary care setting. METHOD: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with U.S. pediatricians. Participants were recruited by convenience sampling and snowball sampling. Qualitive data were summarized using thematic analysis to identify themes relevant to preferences around implementing screening strategies for adolescent patients. Recruitment ended upon reaching thematic saturation when no new themes were revealed. RESULTS: Of the 14 participants, 11 identified as female, 3 male, 10 white, and 4 Asian. Top themes among pediatrician participants were around the screening modality (14/14 participants), screening validity (14/14), time barriers (14/14), and confidentiality barriers (12/14). Less frequently mentioned themes by pediatricians were workplace coordination and logistics (7/14), alternative starting ages for screening (7/14), more frequent screenings than annual screenings (3/14), and additional clinical training regarding depression diagnosis and treatment (2/14). LIMITATIONS: Pool of interviewed participants was limited by diversity in terms of geography, race/ethnicity, or practice settings. CONCLUSIONS: To promote the uptake of universal routine screening of adolescent major depression, pediatricians expressed it was important to address key implementation factors regarding the screening modality, screening validity, time constraints, and confidential care concerns in a primary care delivery context. Findings could be used to inform the development of implementation strategies to facilitate depression screening in primary care. Future research is needed to quantitively assess decisions and tradeoffs that pediatricians make when implementing universal screening to support adolescent mental health.

Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis B Testing and Vaccination of Adults Seeking Care for Sexually Transmitted Infections.

BACKGROUND: The estimated number of people living with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection acquired through sexual transmission was 103,000 in 2018, with an estimated incidence of 8300 new cases per year. Although hepatitis B (HepB) vaccination is recommended by the Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices for persons seeking evaluation and treatment for sexually transmitted infections (STIs), prevaccination testing is not yet recommended. Screening may link persons with chronic hepatitis B to care and reduce unnecessary vaccination. METHODS: We used a Markov model to calculate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of 1-time HBV testing combined with the first dose of the HepB vaccine for adults seeking care for STI. We ran a lifetime, societal perspective analysis for a hypothetical population of 100,000 aged 18 to 69 years. The disease progression estimates were taken from recent cohort studies and meta-analyses. In the United States, an intervention that costs less than $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) is generally considered cost-effective. The strategies that were compared were as follows: (1) vaccination without HBV screening, (2) vaccination and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) screening, (3) vaccination and screening with HBsAg and anti-HBs, and (4) vaccination and screening with HBsAg, anti-HBs, and anti-HBc. Data were obtained from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid services reimbursement, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccine price list, and additional cost-effectiveness literature. RESULTS: Compared with current recommendations, the addition of 1-time HBV testing is cost-saving and would prevent an additional 138 cases of cirrhosis, 47 cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 90 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, 33 liver transplants, and 163 HBV-related deaths, and gain 2185 QALYs, per 100,000 adults screened. Screening with the 3-test panel would save $41.6 to $42.7 million per 100,000 adults tested compared with $41.5 to $42.5 million for the 2-test panel and $40.2 to $40.3 million for HBsAg alone. CONCLUSIONS: One-time HBV prevaccination testing in addition to HepB vaccination for unvaccinated adults seeking care for STI would save lives and prevent new infections and unnecessary vaccination, and is cost-saving.

Cost-effectiveness of alcohol use treatments in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol use treatment such as medication-assisted therapies (MATs) and counseling are available and effective in promoting alcohol abstinence. We sought to explore the cost-effectiveness of different alcohol use treatments among patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis (AC). METHODS: We simulated a cohort of patients with compensated AC receiving care from a hepatology clinic over their lifetimes. We estimated costs (in 2017 US$) and benefits in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from healthcare and societal perspectives. Transition probabilities, costs, and health utility weights were taken from the literature. Treatment effects of FDA-approved MATs (acamprosate and naltrexone) and non-FDA approved MATs (baclofen, gabapentin, and topiramate) and counseling were based on a study of employer-insured patients with AC. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and performed one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to understand the impact of parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: Compared to a do-nothing scenario, MATs and counseling were found to be cost-saving from a healthcare perspective, which means that they provide more benefits with less costs than no intervention. Compared to other interventions, acamprosate and naltrexone cost the least and provide the most QALYs. If the effectiveness of MATs and counseling decreased, these interventions would still be cost-effective based on the commonly used $100,000 per QALY gained threshold. Several sensitivity and scenario analyses showed that our main findings are robust. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with compensated AC, MATs and counseling are extremely cost-effective, and in some cases cost-saving, interventions to prevent decompensation and improve health. Health policies (e.g. payer reimbursement) should emphasize and appropriately compensate for these interventions. LAY SUMMARY: Alcohol use treatments, including physician counseling and medication-assisted therapies (MATs), improve the outcomes of patients with compensated alcohol-related cirrhosis, though use and access have remained suboptimal. In this study, we found that counseling and MATs are extremely cost-effective, and in some cases cost-saving, interventions to help patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis abstain from alcohol and improve their health. Wider use of these interventions should be encouraged.

Burden and Cost of Caring for US Veterans With CKD: Initial Findings From the VA Renal Information System (VA-REINS).

Kidney disease is a common, complex, costly, and life-limiting condition. Most kidney disease registries or information systems have been limited to single institutions or regions. A national US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Renal Information System (VA-REINS) was recently developed. We describe its creation and present key initial findings related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) without kidney replacement therapy (KRT). Data from the VA's Corporate Data Warehouse were processed and linked with national Medicare data for patients with CKD receiving KRT. Operational definitions for VA user, CKD, acute kidney injury, and kidney failure were developed. Among 7 million VA users in fiscal year 2014, CKD was identified using either a strict or liberal operational definition in 1.1 million (16.4%) and 2.5 million (36.3%) veterans, respectively. Most were identified using an estimated glomerular filtration rate laboratory phenotype, some through proteinuria assessment, and very few through International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision coding. The VA spent ∼$18 billion for the care of patients with CKD without KRT, most of which was for CKD stage 3, with higher per-patient costs by CKD stage. VA-REINS can be leveraged for disease surveillance, population health management, and improving the quality and value of care, thereby enhancing VA's capacity as a patient-centered learning health system for US veterans.

Immunologic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Norovirus Transmission in Daycare and School Outbreaks.

BACKGROUND: Norovirus outbreaks are notoriously explosive, with dramatic symptomology and rapid disease spread. Children are particularly vulnerable to infection and drive norovirus transmission due to their high contact rates with each other and the environment. Despite the explosive nature of norovirus outbreaks, attack rates in schools and daycares remain low with the majority of students not reporting symptoms. METHODS: We explore immunologic and epidemiologic mechanisms that may underlie epidemic norovirus transmission dynamics using a disease transmission model. Towards this end, we compared different model scenarios, including innate resistance and acquired immunity (collectively denoted 'immunity'), stochastic extinction, and an individual exclusion intervention. We calibrated our model to daycare and school outbreaks from national surveillance data. RESULTS: Including immunity in the model led to attack rates that were consistent with the data. However, immunity alone resulted in the majority of outbreak durations being relatively short. The addition of individual exclusion (to the immunity model) extended outbreak durations by reducing the amount of time that symptomatic people contribute to transmission. Including both immunity and individual exclusion mechanisms resulted in simulations where both attack rates and outbreak durations were consistent with surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in daycare and school settings cannot be well described by a simple transmission model in which all individuals start as fully susceptible. More studies on how best to design interventions which leverage population immunity and encourage more rigorous individual exclusion may improve venue-level control measures. See video abstract at http://links.lww.com/EDE/B795.

Cost-effectiveness of implantable ventricular assist devices in older children with stable, inotrope-dependent dilated cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: In a stable, inotrope-dependent pediatric patient with dilated cardiomyopathy, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of continuous-flow VAD implantation compared to a watchful waiting approach using chronic inotropic therapy. METHODS: We used a state-transition model to estimate the costs and outcomes of 14-year-old (INTERMACS profile 3) patients receiving either VAD or watchful waiting. We measured benefits in terms of lifetime QALYs gained. Model inputs were taken from the literature. We calculated the ICER, or the cost per additional QALY gained, of VADs and performed multiple sensitivity analyses to test how our assumptions influenced the results. RESULTS: Compared to watchful waiting, VADs produce 0.97 more QALYs for an additional $156 639, leading to an ICER of $162 123 per QALY gained from a healthcare perspective. VADs have 17% chance of being cost-effective given a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 000 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses suggest that VADs can be cost-effective if the costs of implantation decrease or if hospitalization costs or mortality among watchful waiting patients is higher. CONCLUSIONS: As a bridge to transplant, VADs provide a health benefit to children who develop stable, inotrope-dependent heart failure, but immediate implantation is not yet a cost-effective strategy compared to watchful waiting based on commonly used cost-effectiveness thresholds. Early VAD support can be cost-effective in sicker patients and if device implantation is cheaper. In complex conditions such as pediatric heart failure, cost-effectiveness should be just one of many factors that inform clinical decision-making.

Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: An Assessment of Benefits and Harms.

INTRODUCTION: The value of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is defined by the balance of benefits, i.e., early tumor detection, and potential harms, related to false positive and indeterminate results. Although physical harms can be observed in 15%-20% of patients with cirrhosis undergoing HCC surveillance, previous cost-effectiveness analyses have not incorporated costs of harms. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HCC surveillance including both benefits and harms. DESIGN: We constructed a Markov model to compare surveillance strategies of ultrasound (US) alone, US and alpha fetoprotein (AFP), and no surveillance in 1 million simulated patients with compensated cirrhosis. Harms included imaging and biopsy in patients undergoing surveillance for HCC. Model inputs were based on literature review, and costs were derived from the Medicare fee schedule, with all costs inflated to 2018 dollars. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per incremental quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, US with AFP was the dominant strategy over both US alone and no surveillance. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, US with AFP was the most cost-effective strategy in 80.1% of simulations at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. In our threshold analyses, an HCC incidence >0.4% per year and surveillance adherence >19.5% biannually were necessary for US with AFP to be cost-effective compared with no surveillance. DISCUSSION: Accounting for both surveillance-related benefits and harms, US and AFP is more cost-effective for HCC surveillance than US alone or no surveillance in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Projected increase in obesity and non-alcoholic-steatohepatitis-related liver transplantation waitlist additions in the United States.

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis is the fastest growing indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States. We aimed to determine the temporal trend behind the rise in obesity and NASH-related additions to the LT waitlist in the United States and make projections for future NASH burden on the LT waitlist. We used data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database from 2000 to 2014 to obtain the number of NASH-related LT waitlist additions. The obese population in the United States from 2000 to 2014 was estimated using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Based on obesity trends, we established a time lag between obesity prevalence and NASH-related waitlist additions. We used data from the U.S. Census Bureau on population projections from 2016 to 2030 to forecast obesity estimates and NASH-related LT waitlist additions. From 2000 to 2014, the proportion of obese individuals significantly increased 44.9% and the number of NASH-related annual waitlist additions increased from 391 to 1,605. Increase in obesity prevalence was strongly associated with LT waitlist additions 9 years later in derivation and validation cohorts (R2 = 0.9). Based on these data, annual NASH-related waitlist additions are anticipated to increase by 55.4% (1,354-2,104) between 2016 and 2030. There is significant regional variation in obesity rates and in the anticipated increase in NASH-related waitlist additions (P < 0.01). Conclusion: We project a marked increase in demand for LT for NASH given population obesity trends. Continued public health efforts to curb obesity prevalence are needed to reduce the projected future burden of NASH. (Hepatology 2017).

Optimization Models for HIV/AIDS Resource Allocation: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: This study reviews optimization models for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) resource allocation. METHODS: We searched 2 databases for peer-reviewed articles published from January 1985 through August 2019 that describe optimization models for resource allocation in HIV/AIDS. We included models that consider 2 or more competing HIV/AIDS interventions. We extracted data on selected characteristics and identified similarities and differences across models. We also assessed the quality of mathematical disease transmission models based on the best practices identified by a 2010 task force. RESULTS: The final qualitative synthesis included 23 articles that used 14 unique optimization models. The articles shared several characteristics, including the use of dynamic transmission modeling to estimate health benefits and the inclusion of specific high-risk groups in the study population. The models explored similar HIV/AIDS interventions that span primary and secondary prevention and antiretroviral treatment. Most articles were focused on sub-Saharan African countries (57%) and the United States (39%). There was notable variation in the types of optimization objectives across the articles; the most common was minimizing HIV incidence or maximizing infections averted (87%). Articles that utilized mathematical modeling of HIV disease and transmission displayed variable quality. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review of the literature identified examples of optimization models that have been applied in different settings, many of which displayed similar features. There were similarities in objective functions across optimization models, but they did not align with global HIV/AIDS goals or targets. Future work should be applied in countries facing the largest declines in HIV/AIDS funding.

Cost-Effectiveness of Testing and Treatment for Hepatitis B Virus and Hepatitis C Virus Infections: An Analysis by Scenarios, Regions, and Income.

OBJECTIVES: Testing and treatment for hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are highly effective, high-impact interventions. This article aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of scaling up these interventions by scenarios, regions, and income groups. METHODS: We modeled costs and impacts of hepatitis elimination in 67 low- and middle-income countries from 2016 to 2030. Costs included testing and treatment commodities, healthcare consultations, and future savings from cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinomas averted. We modeled disease progression to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) by regions and World Bank income groups, according to 3 scenarios: flatline (status quo), progress (testing/treatment according to World Health Organization guidelines), and ambitious (elimination). RESULTS: Compared with no action, current levels of testing and treatment had an ICER of $807/DALY for HBV and -$62/DALY (cost-saving) for HCV. Scaling up to progress scenario, both interventions had ICERs less than the average gross domestic product/capita of countries (HBV: $532/DALY; HCV: $613/DALY). Scaling up from flatline to elimination led to higher ICERs across countries (HBV: $927/DALY; HCV: $2528/DALY, respectively) that remained lower than the average gross domestic product/capita. Sensitivity analysis indicated discount rates and commodity costs were main factors driving results. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling up testing and treatment for HBV and HCV infection as per World Health Organization guidelines is a cost-effective intervention. Elimination leads to a much larger impact though ICERs are higher. Price reduction strategies are needed to achieve elimination given the substantial budget impact at current commodity prices.

Cost-Effectiveness of Access Expansion to Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Infection Through Primary Care Providers.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major burden on individuals and health care systems. The Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes (Project ECHO) enables primary care providers to deliver best-practice care for complex conditions to underserved populations. The US Congress passed the ECHO Act in late 2016, requiring the Department of Health and Human Services to investigate the model. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to assess diagnosis and treatment of HCV infection in a primary care patient panel with and without the implementation of Project ECHO. METHODS: We used Markov models to simulate disease progression, quality of life, and life expectancy among individuals with HCV infection and for the general population. Data from the University of New Mexico's ECHO operation for HCV show an increase in treatment rates. Corresponding increases in survival, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and resulting budget impact between ECHO and non-ECHO patients with HCV were then compared. RESULTS: Project ECHO increased costs and QALYs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECHO was $10,351 per QALY compared with the status quo; >99.9% of iterations fell below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY. We were unable to confirm whether the increase in rates of treatment associated with Project ECHO were due to increased or more targeted screening, higher adherence, or access to treatment. Our sensitivity analyses show that the results are largely independent of the cause. Budget impact analysis shows payers would have to invest an additional $339.54 million over a 5-year period to increase treatment by 4446 patients, per 1 million covered lives. CONCLUSION: Using a simulated primary care patient panel, we showed that Project ECHO is a cost-effective way to find and treat patients with HCV infection at scale using existing primary care providers. This approach could substantially reduce the burden of chronic HCV infection in the United States, but high budgetary costs suggest that incremental rollout of ECHO may be best.

Cost effectiveness of regorafenib as second-line therapy for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Regorafenib, a multikinase inhibitor, has demonstrated prolonged survival by 2.8 months as a second-line agent in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who progress on sorafenib therapy. The objective of the current study was to examine the cost effectiveness of regorafenib for the treatment of HCC. METHODS: The authors constructed a Markov simulation model of patients with unresectable HCC and Child-Pugh A cirrhosis who received treatment with regorafenib versus best supportive care. Model inputs for regorafenib effectiveness and rates of adverse events in patients with HCC were based on published clinical trial data and literature review. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated along with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of regorafenib therapy. One-way sensitivity analyses also were conducted simultaneously on all model parameters and on various Monte-Carlo simulation parameters, and the regorafenib cost threshold at which cost effectiveness would be achieved was determined. RESULTS: Regorafenib provided an increase of 0.18 QALYs at a cost of $47,112. The ICER for regorafenib, compared with best supportive care, was $224,362. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, there were no scenarios in which regorafenib was cost effective. In cost threshold analysis, regorafenib would have to be priced at or below $67 per pill to be cost effective at an ICER of $100,000. CONCLUSIONS: Regorafenib is not cost effective as a second-line agent in the treatment of HCC, with a marginal increase in QALYs at a high cost. Lowering the cost of regorafenib or improving the selection of patients who can achieve maximal survival benefit would improve its value as a second-line treatment option for patients with HCC. Cancer 2017;123:3725-3731. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Beyond usual care: the economic consequences of expanding treatment options in early pregnancy loss.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to estimate the economic consequences of expanding options for early pregnancy loss (EPL) treatment beyond expectant management and operating room surgical evacuation (usual care). STUDY DESIGN: We constructed a decision model using a hypothetical cohort of women undergoing EPL management within a 30 day horizon. Treatment options under the usual care arm include expectant management and surgical uterine evacuation in an operating room (OR). Treatment options under the expanded care arm included all evidence-based safe and effective treatment options for EPL: expectant management, misoprostol treatment, surgical uterine evacuation in an office setting, and surgical uterine evacuation in an OR. Probabilities of entering various treatment pathways were based on previously published observational studies. RESULTS: The cost per case was US $241.29 lower for women undergoing treatment in the expanded care model as compared with the usual care model (US $1033.29 per case vs US $1274.58 per case, expanded care and usual care, respectively). The model was the most sensitive to the failure rate of the expectant management arm, the cost of the OR surgical procedure, the proportion of women undergoing an OR surgical procedure under usual care, and the additional cost per patient associated with implementing and using the expanded care model. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that expanding women's treatment options for EPL beyond what is typically available can result in lower direct medical expenditures.

Health and economic benefits of early vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions for a human influenza A (H7N9) pandemic: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination for the 2009 pandemic did not occur until late in the outbreak, which limited its benefits. Influenza A (H7N9) is causing increasing morbidity and mortality in China, and researchers have modified the A (H5N1) virus to transmit via aerosol, which again heightens concerns about pandemic influenza preparedness. OBJECTIVE: To determine how quickly vaccination should be completed to reduce infections, deaths, and health care costs in a pandemic with characteristics similar to influenza A (H7N9) and A (H5N1). DESIGN: Dynamic transmission model to estimate health and economic consequences of a severe influenza pandemic in a large metropolitan city. DATA SOURCES: Literature and expert opinion. TARGET POPULATION: Residents of a U.S. metropolitan city with characteristics similar to New York City. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTION: Vaccination of 30% of the population at 4 or 6 months. OUTCOME MEASURES: Infections and deaths averted and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: In 12 months, 48 254 persons would die. Vaccinating at 9 months would avert 2365 of these deaths. Vaccinating at 6 months would save 5775 additional lives and $51 million at a city level. Accelerating delivery to 4 months would save an additional 5633 lives and $50 million. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: If vaccination were delayed for 9 months, reducing contacts by 8% through nonpharmaceutical interventions would yield a similar reduction in infections and deaths as vaccination at 4 months. LIMITATION: The model is not designed to evaluate programs targeting specific populations, such as children or persons with comorbid conditions. CONCLUSION: Vaccination in an influenza A (H7N9) pandemic would need to be completed much faster than in 2009 to substantially reduce morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. Maximizing non-pharmaceutical interventions can substantially mitigate the pandemic until a matched vaccine becomes available. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

Cost-effectiveness of bevacizumab and ranibizumab for newly diagnosed neovascular macular degeneration.

PURPOSE: We sought to determine the most cost-effective treatment for patients with newly diagnosed neovascular macular degeneration: monthly or as-needed bevacizumab injections, or monthly or as-needed ranibizumab injections. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Hypothetical cohort of 80-year-old patients with newly diagnosed neovascular macular degeneration. METHODS: Using a mathematical model with a 20-year time horizon, we compared the incremental cost-effectiveness of treating a hypothetical cohort of 80-year-old patients with newly diagnosed neovascular macular degeneration using monthly bevacizumab, as-needed bevacizumab, monthly ranibizumab, or as-needed ranibizumab. Data came from the Comparison of Age-related macular degeneration Treatment Trial (CATT), the Medicare Fee Schedule, and the medical literature. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental costs per QALY gained. RESULTS: Compared with as-needed bevacizumab, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of monthly bevacizumab is $24,2 357/QALY. Monthly ranibizumab gains an additional 0.02 QALYs versus monthly bevacizumab at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of >$10 million/QALY. As-needed ranibizumab was dominated by monthly bevacizumab, meaning it was more costly and less effective. In sensitivity analyses assuming a willingness to pay of $100,000/QALY, the annual risk of serious vascular events would have to be ≥2.5 times higher with bevacizumab than that observed in the CATT trial for as-needed ranibizumab to have an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of <$100,000/QALY. In another sensitivity analysis, even if every patient receiving bevacizumab experienced declining vision by 1 category (e.g., from 20/25-20/40 to 20/50-20/80) after 2 years but every patient receiving ranibizumab retained their vision level, as-needed ranibizumab would have an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $97,340/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Even after considering the potential for differences in risks of serious adverse events and therapeutic effectiveness, bevacizumab confers considerably greater value than ranibizumab for the treatment of neovascular macular degeneration.