Combined multiplex panel test results are a poor estimate of disease prevalence without adjustment for test error.

Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we might estimate the burden of that disease by combining the results of the panel, for example determining the prevalence of pneumococcal pneumonia as caused by many individual pneumococcal serotypes. When we are dealing with multiplex test panels with many components, test error in the individual components of a panel, even when present at very low levels, can cause significant overall error. Uncertainty in the sensitivity and specificity of the individual tests, and statistical fluctuations in the numbers of false positives and false negatives, will cause large uncertainty in the combined estimates of disease prevalence. In many cases this can be a source of significant bias. In this paper we develop a mathematical framework to characterise this issue, we determine expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of panel tests. In this we identify a counter-intuitive relationship between panel test sensitivity and disease prevalence that means panel tests become more sensitive as prevalence increases. We present novel statistical methods that adjust for bias and quantify uncertainty in prevalence estimates from panel tests, and use simulations to test these methods. As multiplex testing becomes more commonly used for screening in routine clinical practice, accumulation of test error due to the combination of large numbers of test results needs to be identified and corrected for.

Association of ABO and Rhesus blood groups with severe outcomes from non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection: A prospective observational cohort study in Bristol, UK 2020-2022.

Despite significant global morbidity associated with respiratory infection, there is a paucity of data examining the association between severity of non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection and blood group. We analysed a prospective cohort of adults hospitalised in Bristol, UK, from 1 August 2020 to 31 July 2022, including patients with acute respiratory infection (pneumonia [n = 1934] and non-pneumonic lower respiratory tract infection [NP-LRTI] [n = 1184]), a negative SARS-CoV-2 test and known blood group status. The likelihood of cardiovascular complication, survival and hospital admission length was assessed using regression models with group O and RhD-negative status as reference groups. Group A and RhD-positive were over-represented in both pneumonia and NP-LRTI compared to a first-time donor population (p < 0.05 in all); contrastingly, group O was under-represented. ABO group did not influence cardiovascular complication risk; however, RhD-positive patients with pneumonia had a reduced odds ratio (OR) for cardiovascular complications (OR = 0.77 [95% CI = 0.59-0.98]). Compared to group O, group A individuals with NP-LRTI were more likely to be discharged within 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.17 [95% CI = 1.03-1.33]), while group B with pneumonia was less likely (HR = 0.8 [95% CI = 0.66-0.96]). This analysis provides some evidence that blood group status may influence clinical outcome following respiratory infection, with group A having increased risk of hospitalisation and RhD-positive patients having reduced cardiovascular complications.

Syndromic case definitions for lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) are less sensitive in older age: an analysis of symptoms among hospitalised adults.

BACKGROUND: Lower Respiratory Tract Infections (LRTI) pose a serious threat to older adults but may be underdiagnosed due to atypical presentations. Here we assess LRTI symptom profiles and syndromic (symptom-based) case ascertainment in older (≥ 65y) as compared to younger adults (< 65y). METHODS: We included adults (≥ 18y) with confirmed LRTI admitted to two acute care Trusts in Bristol, UK from 1st August 2020- 31st July 2022. Logistic regression was used to assess whether age ≥ 65y reduced the probability of meeting syndromic LRTI case definitions, using patients' symptoms at admission. We also calculated relative symptom frequencies (log-odds ratios) and evaluated how symptoms were clustered across different age groups. RESULTS: Of 17,620 clinically confirmed LRTI cases, 8,487 (48.1%) had symptoms meeting the case definition. Compared to those not meeting the definition these cases were younger, had less severe illness and were less likely to have received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination or to have active SARS-CoV-2 infection. Prevalence of dementia/cognitive impairment and levels of comorbidity were lower in this group. After controlling for sex, dementia and comorbidities, age ≥ 65y significantly reduced the probability of meeting the case definition (aOR = 0.67, 95% CI:0.63-0.71). Cases aged ≥ 65y were less likely to present with fever and LRTI-specific symptoms (e.g., pleurisy, sputum) than younger cases, and those aged ≥ 85y were characterised by lack of cough but frequent confusion and falls. CONCLUSIONS: LRTI symptom profiles changed considerably with age in this hospitalised cohort. Standard screening protocols may fail to detect older and frailer cases of LRTI based on their symptoms.

Relative vaccine effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 boosters in people aged at least 75 years during the spring-summer (monovalent vaccine) and autumn-winter (bivalent vaccine) booster campaigns: a prospective test negative case-control study, United Kingdom, 2022.

BackgroundUnderstanding the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of new COVID-19 vaccine formulations against SARS-CoV-2 infection is a public health priority. A precise analysis of the rVE of monovalent and bivalent boosters given during the 2022 spring-summer and autumn-winter campaigns, respectively, in a defined population remains of interest.AimWe assessed rVE against hospitalisation for the spring-summer (fourth vs third monovalent mRNA vaccine doses) and autumn-winter (fifth BA.1/ancestral bivalent vs fourth monovalent mRNA vaccine dose) boosters.MethodsWe performed a prospective single-centre test-negative design case-control study in ≥ 75-year-old people hospitalised with COVID-19 or other acute respiratory disease. We conducted regression analyses controlling for age, sex, socioeconomic status, patient comorbidities, community SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, vaccine brand and time between baseline dose and hospitalisation.ResultsWe included 682 controls and 182 cases in the spring-summer booster analysis and 572 controls and 152 cases in the autumn-winter booster analysis. A monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as fourth dose showed 46.6% rVE (95% confidence interval (CI): 13.9-67.1) vs those not fully boosted. A bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine as fifth dose had 46.7% rVE (95% CI: 18.0-65.1), compared with a fourth monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose.ConclusionsBoth fourth monovalent and fifth BA.1/ancestral mRNA bivalent COVID-19 vaccine doses demonstrated benefit as a booster in older adults. Bivalent mRNA boosters offered similar protection against hospitalisation with Omicron infection to monovalent mRNA boosters given earlier in the year. These findings support immunisation programmes in several European countries that advised the use of BA.1/ancestral bivalent booster doses.

A novel approach to estimate the local population denominator to calculate disease incidence for hospital-based health events in England.

While incidence studies based on hospitalisation counts are commonly used for public health decision-making, no standard methodology to define hospitals' catchment population exists. We conducted a review of all published community-acquired pneumonia studies in England indexed in PubMed and assessed methods for determining denominators when calculating incidence in hospital-based surveillance studies. Denominators primarily were derived from census-based population estimates of local geographic boundaries and none attempted to determine denominators based on actual hospital access patterns in the community. We describe a new approach to accurately define population denominators based on historical patient healthcare utilisation data. This offers benefits over the more established methodologies which are dependent on assumptions regarding healthcare-seeking behaviour. Our new approach may be applicable to a wide range of health conditions and provides a framework to more accurately determine hospital catchment. This should increase the accuracy of disease incidence estimates based on hospitalised events, improving information available for public health decision making and service delivery planning.

Patient outcomes after hospitalisation with COVID-19 and implications for follow-up: results from a prospective UK cohort.

The longer-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection are uncertain. Consecutive patients hospitalised with COVID-19 were prospectively recruited to this observational study (n=163). At 8-12 weeks postadmission, survivors were invited to a systematic clinical follow-up. Of 131 participants, 110 attended the follow-up clinic. Most (74%) had persistent symptoms (notably breathlessness and excessive fatigue) and limitations in reported physical ability. However, clinically significant abnormalities in chest radiograph, exercise tests, blood tests and spirometry were less frequent (35%), especially in patients not requiring supplementary oxygen during their acute infection (7%). Results suggest that a holistic approach focusing on rehabilitation and general well-being is paramount.

Importance of bacterial replication and alveolar macrophage-independent clearance mechanisms during early lung infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Although the importance of alveolar macrophages for host immunity during early Streptococcus pneumoniae lung infection is well established, the contribution and relative importance of other innate immunity mechanisms and of bacterial factors are less clear. We have used a murine model of S. pneumoniae early lung infection with wild-type, unencapsulated, and para-amino benzoic acid auxotroph mutant TIGR4 strains to assess the effects of inoculum size, bacterial replication, capsule, and alveolar macrophage-dependent and -independent clearance mechanisms on bacterial persistence within the lungs. Alveolar macrophage-dependent and -independent (calculated indirectly) clearance half-lives and bacterial replication doubling times were estimated using a mathematical model. In this model, after infection with a high-dose inoculum of encapsulated S. pneumoniae, alveolar macrophage-independent clearance mechanisms were dominant, with a clearance half-life of 24 min compared to 135 min for alveolar macrophage-dependent clearance. In addition, after a high-dose inoculum, successful lung infection required rapid bacterial replication, with an estimated S. pneumoniae doubling time of 16 min. The capsule had wide effects on early lung clearance mechanisms, with reduced half-lives of 14 min for alveolar macrophage-independent and 31 min for alveolar macrophage-dependent clearance of unencapsulated bacteria. In contrast, with a lower-dose inoculum, the bacterial doubling time increased to 56 min and the S. pneumoniae alveolar macrophage-dependent clearance half-life improved to 42 min and was largely unaffected by the capsule. These data demonstrate the large effects of bacterial factors (inoculum size, the capsule, and rapid replication) and alveolar macrophage-independent clearance mechanisms during early lung infection with S. pneumoniae.

Serological cross reactivity to CMV and EBV causes problems in the diagnosis of acute hepatitis E virus infection.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection is an important public health concern as a major cause of enterically-transmitted hepatitis worldwide. The detectable window of viraemia is narrow, and HEV IgM and IgG rise simultaneously in acute infection. Furthermore, previous investigators have shown HEV IgM false positive reactions occur against EBV, CMV and potentially hepatitis A. A retrospective analysis of HEV serology testing was performed at a London tertiary referral hospital over a 3-year period. A thousand four hundred and twenty three serum samples were tested for HEV serology, with 33 samples HEV IgM positive and 28 HEV IgM equivocal. One hundred and eleven samples were HEV IgG positive but IgM negative suggesting past infection. No patients with HEV IgM positivity had false positive reactions against hepatitis A. A high degree of EBV and CMV cross reactivity was noted, with 33.3% and 24.2% of HEV IgM positive samples also testing positive for EBV and CMV IgM, respectively. HEV RNA was detected in four HEV IgM positive samples, indicating true positivity, although three demonstrated cross reactivity against EBV. Only 13.3% of samples with positive HEV IgM were HEV PCR positive, highlighting a low positive predictive value of serology testing. Overall a high level of HEV, EBV and CMV IgM cross reactivity was demonstrated, indicating that serology is unreliable in the diagnosis of acute viral hepatitis. It is concluded that that the diagnosis of viral hepatitis should be based on clinical features, raised transaminases, serology, and confirmatory PCR testing.

Surveillance of pneumococcal serotypes in adults hospitalised with acute lower respiratory tract infection in Bristol, UK.

INTRODUCTION: Pneumococcus remains a major cause of adult lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI). Few data exist on the relative contribution of serotypes included in pneumococcal vaccines to community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and non-pneumonic (NP) LRTI. We measured the burden of all and vaccine-serotype pneumococcal respiratory infection following SARS-CoV-2 emergence to inform evidence-based vaccination policy. METHODS: A prospective cohort study at two Bristol hospitals (UK) including all adults age ≥ 18-years hospitalised with acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) from Nov2021-Nov2022. LRTI patients were classified as: a) radiographically-confirmed CAP (CAP+/RAD+), b) clinically-diagnosed CAP without radiological confirmation (CAP+/RAD-), or c) NP-LRTI. Pneumococcus was identified by blood culture, BinaxNOW™and serotype-specific urine antigen detection assays (UAD). RESULTS: Of 12,083 aLRTD admissions, 10,026 had LRTI and 2,445 provided urine: 1,097 CAP + RAD+; 207 CAP + RAD-; and 1,141 NP-LRTI. Median age was 71.1y (IQR57.9-80.2) and Charlson comorbidity index = 4 (IQR2-5); 2.7 % of patients required intensive care, and 4.4 % died within 30-days of hospitalisation. Pneumococcus was detected in 280/2445 (11.5 %) participants. Among adults aged ≥ 65y and 18-64y, 12.9 % (198/1534) and 9.0 % (82/911), respectively, tested pneumococcus positive. We identified pneumococcus in 165/1097 (15.0 %) CAP + RAD+, 23/207 (11.1 %) CAP + RAD-, and 92/1141 (8.1 %) NP-LRTI cases. Of the 280 pneumococcal cases, 102 (36.4 %) were due to serotypes included in PCV13 + 6C, 115 (41.7 %) in PCV15 + 6C, 210 (75.0 %) in PCV20 + 6C/15C and 228 (81.4 %) in PPV23 + 15C. The most frequently identified serotypes were 8 (n = 78; 27.9 % of all pneumococcus), 7F (n = 25; 8.9 %), and 3 (n = 24; 8.6 %). DISCUSSION: Among adults hospitalised with respiratory infection, pneumococcus is an important pathogen across all subgroups, including CAP+/RAD- and NP-LRTI. Despite 20-years of PPV23 use in adults ≥ 65-years and herd protection due to 17-years of PCV use in infants, vaccine-serotype pneumococcal disease still causes a significant proportion of LRTI adult hospitalizations. Direct adult vaccination with high-valency PCVs may reduce pneumococcal disease burden.

Estimating the burden of vaccine preventable lower respiratory tract disease in primary care, UK: protocol for a prospective surveillance study (AvonCAP GP2).

BACKGROUND: The true burden of acute lower respiratory tract diseases (aLRTD; includes acute lower respiratory tract infection, acute exacerbation of pre-existing heart failure and chronic lung disease) among adults presenting to primary care, and the proportion that are potentially vaccine preventable, is unknown. AIMS: To describe aLRTD incidence in adults presenting to primary care; estimate proportions caused by RSV, SARS-CoV-2 and pneumococcus; and investigate disease burden from patient and NHS perspectives. DESIGN & SETTING: Primary care prospective cohort study conducted in six representative General Practices (total Ì´83 000 registered adults) in Bristol, UK. METHOD: Adults (aged≥18 years) registered at participating General Practices and presenting to primary care (in-hours or out-of-hours) or emergency department (if not admitted) with aLRTD will be eligible and identified by real-time primary care record searches. Researchers will screen electronic GP records, including free text, contact patients to assess eligibility, and offer enrolment in a surveillance study and an enhanced diagnostic study (urine, saliva and respiratory samples; physical examination; and symptom diaries). Data will be collected for all aLRTD episodes, with patients assigned to one of three arms: surveillance, embedded diagnostic, and descriptive dataset. Outcome measures will include clinical and pathogen defined aLRTD incidence rates, symptom severity and duration, NHS contacts and costs, health-related quality of life changes, and mortality (≤30 days post identification). CONCLUSION: This comprehensive surveillance study of adults presenting to primary care with aLRTD, with embedded detailed data and sample collection, will provide an accurate assessment of aLRTD burden due to vaccine preventable infections.

Impact of vaccination on the association of COVID-19 with cardiovascular diseases: An OpenSAFELY cohort study.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is associated with an increased risk of arterial and venous thrombotic events, but the implications of vaccination for this increased risk are uncertain. With the approval of NHS England, we quantified associations between COVID-19 diagnosis and cardiovascular diseases in different vaccination and variant eras using linked electronic health records for ~40% of the English population. We defined a 'pre-vaccination' cohort (18,210,937 people) in the wild-type/Alpha variant eras (January 2020-June 2021), and 'vaccinated' and 'unvaccinated' cohorts (13,572,399 and 3,161,485 people respectively) in the Delta variant era (June-December 2021). We showed that the incidence of each arterial thrombotic, venous thrombotic and other cardiovascular outcomes was substantially elevated during weeks 1-4 after COVID-19, compared with before or without COVID-19, but less markedly elevated in time periods beyond week 4. Hazard ratios were higher after hospitalised than non-hospitalised COVID-19 and higher in the pre-vaccination and unvaccinated cohorts than the vaccinated cohort. COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of cardiovascular events after COVID-19 infection. People who had COVID-19 before or without being vaccinated are at higher risk of cardiovascular events for at least two years.

Streptococcus pneumoniae capsular serotype invasiveness correlates with the degree of factor H binding and opsonization with C3b/iC3b.

Different capsular serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae vary markedly in their ability to cause invasive infection, but the reasons why are not known. As immunity to S. pneumoniae infection is highly complement dependent, variations in sensitivity to complement between S. pneumoniae capsular serotypes could affect invasiveness. We have used 20 capsule-switched variants of strain TIGR4 to investigate whether differences in the binding of the alternative pathway inhibitor factor H (FH) could be one mechanism causing variations in complement resistance and invasive potential between capsular serotypes. Flow cytometry assays were used to assess complement factor binding and complement-dependent neutrophil association for the TIGR4 capsule-switched strains. FH binding varied with the serotype and inversely correlated with the results of factor B binding, C3b/iC3b deposition, and neutrophil association. Differences between strains in FH binding were lost when assays were repeated with pspC mutant strains, and loss of PspC also reduced differences in C3b/iC3b deposition between strains. Median FH binding was high in capsule-switched mutant strains expressing more invasive serotypes, and a principal component analysis demonstrated a strong correlation between serotype invasiveness, high FH binding, and resistance to complement and neutrophil association. Further data obtained with 33 clinical strains also demonstrated that FH binding negatively correlated with C3b/iC3b deposition and that median FH binding was high in strains expressing more invasive serotypes. These data suggest that variations in complement resistance between S. pneumoniae strains and the association of a serotype with invasiveness could be related to capsular serotype effects on FH binding.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in prevention of hospitalisations and severe disease in adults with SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant between June 2021 and July 2022: A prospective test negative case-control study.

Background: Whilst other studies have reported the effectiveness of mRNA vaccination against hospitalisation, including emergency department or intensive care admission, few have assessed effectiveness against other more clinically robust indices of COVID-19 severity. Methods: A prospective single-centre test-negative design case-control study of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 disease or other acute respiratory disease between 1 June 2021 and 20 July 2022. We assessed VE (vaccine effectiveness) against hospitalisation, length of stay [LOS] >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and supplementary oxygen FiO2 (fraction inspired oxygen) >28%, conducting regression analyses controlling for age, gender, index of multiple deprivation, Charlson comorbidity index, time, and community infection prevalence. Findings: 935 controls and 546 cases were hospitalised during the Delta period, with 721 controls and 372 cases hospitalised during the Omicron study period. Two-dose BNT162b2 was associated with VE 82.5% [95% confidence interval 76.2%-87.2%] against hospitalisation following Delta infection, 63.3% [26.9-81.8%], 58.5% [24.8-77.3%], and 51.5% [16.7-72.1%] against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5, and requirement for FiO2 >28% respectively. Three-dose BNT162b2 protection against hospitalisation with Omicron infection was 30.9% [5.9-49.3%], with sensitivity analyses ranging from 28.8-72.6%. Protection against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and requirement for FiO2 >28% was 56.1% [20.6-76.5%], 58.8% [31.2-75.8%], and 41.5% [-0.4-66.3%], respectively. In the UK, BNT162b2 was prioritised for high-risk individuals and those aged >75 years. In the latter group we found a higher estimate of VE against hospitalisation of 47.2% [16.8-66.6%]. Interpretation: BNT162b2 vaccination results in risk reductions for hospitalisation and multiple patient outcomes following Delta and Omicron COVID-19 infection, particularly in older adults. BNT162b2 remains effective against severe SARS-CoV-2 disease. Funding: AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.

Use of illness severity scores to predict mortality in interstitial lung disease patients hospitalised with acute respiratory deterioration.

INTRODUCTION: Hospitalisations relating to acute respiratory deteriorations (ARD) in Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) have poor outcomes. Factors predicting adverse outcomes are not fully understood and data addressing the use of illness severity scores in prognostication are limited. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the use of CURB-65 and NEWS-2 severity scores in the prediction of mortality following ARD-ILD hospitalisation, using prospective methodology and to validate previously determined cut-offs, derived from a retrospective study cohort. METHODS: A dual-centre prospective observational cohort study of all adults (≥18y) hospitalised with ARD-ILD in Bristol, UK (n = 179). Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP), CURB-65 and NEWS-2 scores were calculated for each eligible admission. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was used to quantify the strength of discrimination for NEWS-2 and CURB-65 scores. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the relationship between baseline severity scores and mortality. RESULTS: GAP showed some merit at predicting 30-day mortality (AUC = 0.64, P = 0.015); whereas CURB-65 showed modest predictive value for in-hospital (AUC = 0.72, P < 0.001) and 90-day mortality (AUC = 0.67, P < 0.001). NEWS-2 showed higher predictive value for in-hospital (AUC = 0.80, P < 0.001) and 90-day mortality (AUC = 0.75, P < 0.001), with an optimal derived cut-off ≥6.5 found to be sensitive and specific for predicting in-hospital (83% and 63%) and 90-day (73% and 72%) mortality. In exploratory analyses, GAP score addition improved the predictive ability of NEWS-2 against 30-day mortality and CURB-65 across all time-periods. CONCLUSION: NEWS-2 has good discriminatory value for predicting in-hospital mortality and moderate discriminatory value for predicting 90-day mortality. The optimal NEWS-2 cut-off value determined was the same as in a previous retrospective cohort, confirming the NEWS-2 score shows promise in predicting mortality following ARD-ILD hospitalisation.

Hyperactive immature state and differential CXCR2 expression of neutrophils in severe COVID-19.

Neutrophils are vital in defence against pathogens, but excessive neutrophil activity can lead to tissue damage and promote acute respiratory distress syndrome. COVID-19 is associated with systemic expansion of immature neutrophils, but the functional consequences of this shift to immaturity are not understood. We used flow cytometry to investigate activity and phenotypic diversity of circulating neutrophils in acute and convalescent COVID-19 patients. First, we demonstrate hyperactivation of immature CD10- subpopulations in severe disease, with elevated markers of secondary granule release. Partially activated immature neutrophils were detectable 12 wk post-hospitalisation, indicating long term myeloid dysregulation in convalescent COVID-19 patients. Second, we demonstrate that neutrophils from moderately ill patients down-regulate the chemokine receptor CXCR2, whereas neutrophils from severely ill individuals fail to do so, suggesting an altered ability for organ trafficking and a potential mechanism for induction of disease tolerance. CD10- and CXCR2hi neutrophil subpopulations were enriched in severe disease and may represent prognostic biomarkers for the identification of individuals at high risk of progressing to severe COVID-19.

Parapneumonic effusions related to Streptococcus pneumoniae: serotype and disease severity trends from 2006 to 2018 in Bristol, UK.

RATIONALE: Streptococcus pneumoniae epidemiology is changing in response to vaccination and some data suggest that empyema incidence is increasing. However, differences exist between the UK and US studies. We describe trends in the clinical phenotype of adult pneumococcal pleural infection, including simple parapneumonic effusions (SPE) in the pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) era. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether there were differences in pneumococcal disease presentation and severity associated with pleural infection. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study, all adults ≥16 years admitted to three large UK hospitals, 2006-2018 with pneumococcal disease. 2477 invasive pneumococcal cases were identified: 459 SPE and 100 pleural infection cases. Medical records were reviewed for each clinical episode. Serotype data were obtained from the UK Health Security Agency national reference laboratory. RESULTS: Incidence increased over time, including non-PCV-serotype disease. PCV7-serotype disease declined following paediatric PCV7 introduction, but the effect of PCV13 was less apparent as disease caused by the additional six serotypes plateaued with serotypes 1 and 3 causing such parapneumonic effusions from 2011 onwards.Patients with pleural infection had a median survival 468 days (95% CI 340 to 590) vs 286 days (95% CI 274 to 335) in those with SPE. Pleural infection associated with frank pus had lower 90-day mortality than pleural infection without pus (0% vs 29%, p<0.0001). 90-day mortality could be predicted by baseline increased RAPID (Renal, Age, Purulence, Infection source, and Dietary factors) score (HR 15.01, 95% CI 1.24 to 40.06, p=0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Pneumococcal infection continues to cause severe disease despite the introduction of PCVs. The predominance of serotype 1 and 3 in this adult UK cohort is in keeping with previous studies in paediatric and non-UK studies. Rising non-PCV serotype disease and limited impact of PCV13 on cases caused by serotypes 1 and 3 offset the reductions in adult pneumococcal parapneumonic effusion disease burden observed following the introduction of the childhood PCV7 programme.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 infective exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on clinical outcomes in a prospective cohort study of hospitalised adults.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) triggered by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have worse outcomes than AECOPD caused by other infectious agents or non-infective AECOPD (NI-COPD). DESIGN: A two-hospital prospective cohort study of adults hospitalised with acute respiratory disease. We compared outcomes with AECOPD and a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 (n = 816), AECOPD triggered by other infections (n = 3038) and NI-COPD (n = 994). We used multivariable modelling to adjust for potential confounders and assessed variation by seasons associated with different SARS-CoV-2 variants. SETTING: Bristol UK, August 2020-May 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (≥18 y) hospitalised with AECOPD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We determined the risk of positive pressure support, longer hospital admission and mortality following hospitalisation with AECOPD due to non-SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with SARS-CoV-2 AECOPD and NI-COPD. RESULTS: Patients with SARS-CoV-2 AECOPD, in comparison to non-SARS-CoV-2 infective AECOPD or NI-COPD, more frequently required positive pressure support (18.5% and 7.5% vs. 11.7%, respectively), longer hospital stays (median [interquartile range, IQR]: 7 [3-15] and 5 [2-10] vs. 4 [2-9] days, respectively) and had higher 30-day mortality (16.9% and 11.1% vs. 5.9%, respectively) (all p < 0.001). In adjusted analyses, SARS-CoV-2 AECOPD was associated with a 55% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 24-93), 26% (95% CI: 15-37) and 35% (95% CI: 10-65) increase in the risk of positive pressure support, hospitalisation length and 30-day mortality, respectively, relative to non-SARS-CoV-2 infective AECOPD. The difference in risk remained similar during periods of wild-type, Alpha and Delta SARS-CoV-2 strain dominance, but diminished during Omicron dominance. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2-related AECOPD had worse patient outcomes compared with non-SARS-CoV-2 AECOPD or NI-AECOPD, although the difference in risks was less pronounced during Omicron dominance.

Severity of Omicron (B.1.1.529) and Delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 infection among hospitalised adults: A prospective cohort study in Bristol, United Kingdom.

Background: There is an urgent public health need to evaluate disease severity in adults hospitalised with Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant infections. However, limited data exist assessing severity of disease in adults hospitalised with Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infections, and to what extent patient-factors, including vaccination, age, frailty and pre-existing disease, affect variant-dependent disease severity. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adults (≥18 years of age) hospitalised with acute lower respiratory tract disease at acute care hospitals in Bristol, UK conducted over 10-months. Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined by positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR and variant identification or inferred by dominant circulating variant. We constructed adjusted regression analyses to assess disease severity using three different measures: FiO2 >28% (fraction inspired oxygen), World Health Organization (WHO) outcome score >5 (assessing need for ventilatory support), and hospital length of stay (LOS) >3 days following admission for Omicron or Delta infection. Findings: Independent of other variables, including vaccination, Omicron variant infection in hospitalised adults was associated with lower severity than Delta. Risk reductions were 58%, 67%, and 16% for supplementary oxygen with >28% FiO2 [Relative Risk (RR) = 0.42 (95%CI: 0.34-0.52), P < 0.001], WHO outcome score >5 [RR = 0.33 (95%CI: 0.21-0.50), P < 0.001], and to have had a LOS > 3 days [RR = 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76-0.92), P < 0.001]. Younger age and vaccination with two or three doses were also independently associated with lower COVID-19 severity. Interpretation: We provide reassuring evidence that Omicron infection results in less serious adverse outcomes than Delta in hospitalised patients. Despite lower severity relative to Delta, Omicron infection still resulted in substantial patient and public health burden and an increased admission rate of older patients with Omicron which counteracts some of the benefit arising from less severe disease. Funding: AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.