Application of causal inference methods in individual-participant data meta-analyses in medicine: addressing data handling and reporting gaps with new proposed reporting guidelines.

Observational data provide invaluable real-world information in medicine, but certain methodological considerations are required to derive causal estimates. In this systematic review, we evaluated the methodology and reporting quality of individual-level patient data meta-analyses (IPD-MAs) conducted with non-randomized exposures, published in 2009, 2014, and 2019 that sought to estimate a causal relationship in medicine. We screened over 16,000 titles and abstracts, reviewed 45 full-text articles out of the 167 deemed potentially eligible, and included 29 into the analysis. Unfortunately, we found that causal methodologies were rarely implemented, and reporting was generally poor across studies. Specifically, only three of the 29 articles used quasi-experimental methods, and no study used G-methods to adjust for time-varying confounding. To address these issues, we propose stronger collaborations between physicians and methodologists to ensure that causal methodologies are properly implemented in IPD-MAs. In addition, we put forward a suggested checklist of reporting guidelines for IPD-MAs that utilize causal methods. This checklist could improve reporting thereby potentially enhancing the quality and trustworthiness of IPD-MAs, which can be considered one of the most valuable sources of evidence for health policy.

Creation of Standardized Common Data Elements for Diagnostic Tests in Infectious Disease Studies: Semantic and Syntactic Mapping.

BACKGROUND: It is necessary to harmonize and standardize data variables used in case report forms (CRFs) of clinical studies to facilitate the merging and sharing of the collected patient data across several clinical studies. This is particularly true for clinical studies that focus on infectious diseases. Public health may be highly dependent on the findings of such studies. Hence, there is an elevated urgency to generate meaningful, reliable insights, ideally based on a high sample number and quality data. The implementation of core data elements and the incorporation of interoperability standards can facilitate the creation of harmonized clinical data sets. OBJECTIVE: This study's objective was to compare, harmonize, and standardize variables focused on diagnostic tests used as part of CRFs in 6 international clinical studies of infectious diseases in order to, ultimately, then make available the panstudy common data elements (CDEs) for ongoing and future studies to foster interoperability and comparability of collected data across trials. METHODS: We reviewed and compared the metadata that comprised the CRFs used for data collection in and across all 6 infectious disease studies under consideration in order to identify CDEs. We examined the availability of international semantic standard codes within the Systemized Nomenclature of Medicine - Clinical Terms, the National Cancer Institute Thesaurus, and the Logical Observation Identifiers Names and Codes system for the unambiguous representation of diagnostic testing information that makes up the CDEs. We then proposed 2 data models that incorporate semantic and syntactic standards for the identified CDEs. RESULTS: Of 216 variables that were considered in the scope of the analysis, we identified 11 CDEs to describe diagnostic tests (in particular, serology and sequencing) for infectious diseases: viral lineage/clade; test date, type, performer, and manufacturer; target gene; quantitative and qualitative results; and specimen identifier, type, and collection date. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of CDEs for infectious diseases is the first step in facilitating the exchange and possible merging of a subset of data across clinical studies (and with that, large research projects) for possible shared analysis to increase the power of findings. The path to harmonization and standardization of clinical study data in the interest of interoperability can be paved in 2 ways. First, a map to standard terminologies ensures that each data element's (variable's) definition is unambiguous and that it has a single, unique interpretation across studies. Second, the exchange of these data is assisted by "wrapping" them in a standard exchange format, such as Fast Health care Interoperability Resources or the Clinical Data Interchange Standards Consortium's Clinical Data Acquisition Standards Harmonization Model.

Burden of Postinfectious Symptoms after Acute Dengue, Vietnam.

We assessed predominantly pediatric patients in Vietnam with dengue and other febrile illness 3 months after acute illness. Among dengue patients, 47% reported >1 postacute symptom. Most resolved by 3 months, but alopecia and vision problems often persisted. Our findings provide additional evidence on postacute dengue burden and confirm children are affected.

Follow-Up Household Serosurvey in Northeast Brazil for Zika Virus: Sexual Contacts of Index Patients Have the Highest Risk for Seropositivity.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne virus that is also transmitted sexually; however, the epidemiological relevance of ZIKV sexual transmission in endemic regions is unclear. METHODS: We performed a household-based serosurvey in Northeast Brazil to evaluate the differential exposure to ZIKV and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) among households. Individuals who participated in our previous arboviral disease cohort (indexes) were recontacted and enrolled, and their household members were newly enrolled. RESULTS: The relative risk of sexual partners being ZIKV-seropositive when living with a ZIKV-seropositive index participant was significantly higher, whereas this was not observed among nonsexual partners of the index. For CHIKV, both sexual and nonsexual partner household members living with a CHIKV-seropositive index had a significantly higher risk of being seropositive. In the nonindex-based dyadic and generalized linear mixed model analyses, the odds of sexual dyads having a concordant ZIKV plaque reduction neutralization test result was significantly higher. We have also analyzed retrospective clinical data according to the participants' exposure to ZIKV and CHIKV. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that ZIKV sexual transmission may be a key factor for the high ZIKV seroprevalence among households in endemic areas and raises important questions about differential disease from the 2 modes of transmission.

ZIKA Virus Neutralizing Antibody Kinetics in Antenatally Exposed Infants.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with severe congenital abnormalities and laboratory diagnosis of antenatal infection is difficult. Here we evaluated ZIKV neutralizing antibody (nAb) kinetics in infants born to mothers with PCR-confirmed ZIKV infection during pregnancy. METHODS: Neonates (n = 98) had serum specimens tested repeatedly for ZIKV nAb over the first 2 years of life using virus neutralization test (VNT). ZIKV neonatal infection was confirmed by RT-PCR in blood or urine and/or presence of ZIKV IgM antibodies, and results were correlated with infant clinical features. RESULTS: Postnatal laboratory evidence of ZIKV vertical transmission was obtained for 60.2% of children, while 32.7% exhibited clinical abnormalities. Congenital abnormalities were found in 37.3% of children with confirmed ZIKV infection and 31.0% of children without confirmed infection (P = .734). All but 1 child displayed a physiologic decline in ZIKV nAb, reflecting maternal antibody decay, despite an early ZIKV-IgM response in one-third of infants. CONCLUSIONS: Infants with antenatal ZIKV exposure do not develop ZIKV nAb despite an early IgM response. Therefore, ZIKV VNT in children is not useful for diagnosis of congenital infection. In light of these findings, it remains to be determined if children infected in utero are potentially susceptible to reinfection.

Higher Plasma Viremia in the Febrile Phase Is Associated With Adverse Dengue Outcomes Irrespective of Infecting Serotype or Host Immune Status: An Analysis of 5642 Vietnamese Cases.

BACKGROUND: One of the generally accepted constructs of dengue pathogenesis is that clinical disease severity is at least partially dependent upon plasma viremia, yet data on plasma viremia in primary versus secondary infections and in relation to clinically relevant endpoints remain limited and contradictory. METHODS: Using a large database comprising detailed clinical and laboratory characterization of Vietnamese participants enrolled in a series of research studies executed over a 15-year period, we explored relationships between plasma viremia measured by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and 3 clinically relevant endpoints-severe dengue, plasma leakage, and hospitalization-in the dengue-confirmed cases. All 4 dengue serotypes and both primary and secondary infections were well represented. In our logistic regression models we allowed for a nonlinear effect of viremia and for associations between viremia and outcome to differ by age, serotype, host immune status, and illness day at study enrollment. RESULTS: Among 5642 dengue-confirmed cases we identified 259 (4.6%) severe dengue cases, 701 (12.4%) patients with plasma leakage, and 1441 of 4008 (40.0%) patients recruited in outpatient settings who were subsequently hospitalized. From the early febrile phase onwards, higher viremia increased the risk of developing all 3 endpoints, but effect sizes were modest (ORs ranging from 1.12-1.27 per 1-log increase) compared with the effects of a secondary immune response (ORs, 1.67-7.76). The associations were consistent across age, serotype, and immune status groups, and in the various sensitivity and subgroup analyses we undertook. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma viremia is associated with increased dengue severity, regardless of serotype or immune status.

Development and Validation of a Multiplex Microsphere Immunoassay Using Dried Blood Spots for SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence: Application in First Responders in Colorado, USA.

Serological testing of large representative populations for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is needed to estimate seroprevalence, transmission dynamics, and the duration of antibody responses from natural infection and vaccination. In this study, a high-throughput SARS-CoV-2 multiplex microsphere immunoassay (MMIA) was developed for the receptor binding domain (RBD) and nucleocapsid (N) that was more sensitive than enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (98% versus 87%). The MMIA was then applied and validated in 264 first responders in Colorado using serum and dried blood spot (DBS) eluates, compared to ELISA, and evaluated for neutralizing antibodies. Four percent (11/264) of first responders were seropositive in July to August 2020. Serum and DBS were highly correlated for anti-RBD and anti-N antibodies (R = 0.83, P < 0.0001 and R = 0.87, P < 0.0001, respectively) by MMIA. The MMIA accurately predicted SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies using DBS (R = 0.76, P = 0.037). On repeat antibody testing 3 months later, anti-RBD IgG decreased less rapidly than anti-N IgG measured by MMIA, with a median change in geometric median fluorescence intensity of 62% versus 79% (P < 0.01) for anti-RBD and anti-N IgG, respectively. This novel MMIA using DBS could be scalable for rapid and affordable SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance in the United States and globally.

The effect of malaria on haemoglobin concentrations: a nationally representative household fixed-effects study of 17,599 children under 5 years of age in Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Although the association between malaria and anaemia is widely studied in patient cohorts, the population-representative causal effects of malaria on anaemia remain unknown. This study estimated the malaria-induced decrease in haemoglobin levels among young children in malaria-endemic Burkina Faso. METHODS: The study was based on pooled individual-level nationally representative health survey data (2010-2011, 2014, 2017-2018) from 17 599 children under 5 years of age. This data was used to estimate the effects of malaria on haemoglobin concentration, controlling for household fixed-effects, age, and sex in a series of regression analyses. The fixed-effects controlled for observed and unobserved confounding on the household level and allowed to determine the impact of malaria infection status on haemoglobin levels and anaemia prevalence. Furthermore, the diagnostic results from microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests were leveraged to provide a quasi-longitudinal perspective of acute and prolonged effects after malaria infection. RESULTS: The prevalence of both malaria (survey prevalence ranging from 17.4% to 65.2%) and anaemia (survey prevalence ranging from 74% to 88.2%) was very high in the included surveys. Malaria was estimated to significantly reduce haemoglobin levels, with an overall effect of - 7.5 g/dL (95% CI - 8.5, - 6.5). Acute malaria resulted in a - 7.7 g/dL (95% CI - 8.8, - 6.6) decrease in haemoglobin levels. Recent malaria without current parasitaemia decreased haemoglobin concentration by - 7.1 g/dL (95% CI - 8.3, - 5.9). The in-sample predicted prevalence of severe anaemia was 9.4% among malaria positives, but only 2.2% among children without malaria. CONCLUSION: Malaria infection has a strong detrimental effect on haemoglobin levels among young children in Burkina Faso. This effect seems to carry over even after acute infection, indicating prolonged haemoglobin reductions even after successful parasite-elimination. The quasi-experimental fixed-effect approach adds a population level perspective to existing clinical evidence.

Vertical transmission of SARS-CoV2 during pregnancy: A high-risk cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Identify the potential for and risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 vertical transmission. METHODS: Symptomatic pregnant women with COVID-19 diagnosis in whom PCR for SARS-CoV-2 was performed at delivery using maternal serum and at least one of the biological samples: cord blood (CB), amniotic fluid (AF), colostrum and/or oropharyngeal swab (OPS) of the neonate. The association of parameters with maternal, AF and/or CB positivity and the influence of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in AF and/or CB on neonatal outcomes were investigated. RESULTS: Overall 73.4% (80/109) were admitted in hospital due to COVID-19, 22.9% needed intensive care and there were four maternal deaths. Positive RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 was observed in 14.7% of maternal blood, 13.9% of AF, 6.7% of CB, 2.1% of colostrum and 3.7% of OPS samples. The interval between COVID-19 symptoms and delivery was inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the maternal blood (p = 0.002) and in the AF and/or CB (p = 0.049). Maternal viremia was associated with positivity for SARS-CoV-2 in AF and/or CB (p = 0.001). SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the compartments was not associated with neonatal outcomes. CONCLUSION: Vertical transmission is possible in pregnant women with COVID-19 and a shorter interval between maternal symptoms and delivery is an influencing factor.

High-density Peptide Arrays Help to Identify Linear Immunogenic B-cell Epitopes in Individuals Naturally Exposed to Malaria Infection.

High-density peptide arrays are an excellent means to profile anti-plasmodial antibody responses. Different protein intrinsic epitopes can be distinguished, and additional insights are gained, when compared with assays involving the full-length protein. Distinct reactivities to specific epitopes within one protein may explain differences in published results, regarding immunity or susceptibility to malaria. We pursued three approaches to find specific epitopes within important plasmodial proteins, (1) twelve leading vaccine candidates were mapped as overlapping 15-mer peptides, (2) a bioinformatical approach served to predict immunogenic malaria epitopes which were subsequently validated in the assay, and (3) randomly selected peptides from the malaria proteome were screened as a control. Several peptide array replicas were prepared, employing particle-based laser printing, and were used to screen 27 serum samples from a malaria-endemic area in Burkina Faso, West Africa. The immunological status of the individuals was classified as "protected" or "unprotected" based on clinical symptoms, parasite density, and age. The vaccine candidate screening approach resulted in significant hits in all twelve proteins and allowed us (1) to verify many known immunogenic structures, (2) to map B-cell epitopes across the entire sequence of each antigen and (3) to uncover novel immunogenic epitopes. Predicting immunogenic regions in the proteome of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, via the bioinformatics approach and subsequent array screening, confirmed known immunogenic sequences, such as in the leading malaria vaccine candidate CSP and discovered immunogenic epitopes derived from hypothetical or unknown proteins.

Performance of Zika Assays in the Context of Toxoplasma gondii, Parvovirus B19, Rubella Virus, and Cytomegalovirus (TORCH) Diagnostic Assays.

Infections during pregnancy that may cause congenital abnormalities have been recognized for decades, but their diagnosis is challenging. This was again illustrated with the emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV), highlighting the inherent difficulties in estimating the extent of pre- and postnatal ZIKV complications because of the difficulties in establishing definitive diagnoses. We reviewed the epidemiology, infection kinetics, and diagnostic methods used for Toxoplasma gondii, parvovirus B19, rubella virus, and cytomegalovirus (TORCH) infections and compared the results with current knowledge of ZIKV diagnostic assays to provide a basis for the inclusion of ZIKV in the TORCH complex evaluations. Similarities between TORCH pathogens and ZIKV support inclusion of ZIKV as an emerging TORCH infection. Our review evaluates the diagnostic performance of various TORCH diagnostic assays for maternal screening, fetal screening, and neonatal screening. We show that the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of TORCH complex pathogens are widely variable, stressing the importance of confirmatory testing and the need for novel techniques for earlier and accurate diagnosis of maternal and congenital infections. In this context it is also important to acknowledge different needs and access to care for different geographic and resource settings.

Rapid Response to Pandemic Threats: Immunogenic Epitope Detection of Pandemic Pathogens for Diagnostics and Vaccine Development Using Peptide Microarrays.

Emergence and re-emergence of pathogens bearing the risk of becoming a pandemic threat are on the rise. Increased travel and trade, growing population density, changes in urbanization, and climate have a critical impact on infectious disease spread. Currently, the world is confronted with the emergence of a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, responsible for yet more than 800 000 deaths globally. Outbreaks caused by viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, HIV, Ebola, influenza, and Zika, have increased over the past decade, underlining the need for a rapid development of diagnostics and vaccines. Hence, the rational identification of biomarkers for diagnostic measures on the one hand, and antigenic targets for vaccine development on the other, are of utmost importance. Peptide microarrays can display large numbers of putative target proteins translated into overlapping linear (and cyclic) peptides for a multiplexed, high-throughput antibody analysis. This enabled for example the identification of discriminant/diagnostic epitopes in Zika or influenza and mapping epitope evolution in natural infections versus vaccinations. In this review, we highlight synthesis platforms that facilitate fast and flexible generation of high-density peptide microarrays. We further outline the multifaceted applications of these peptide array platforms for the development of serological tests and vaccines to quickly encounter pandemic threats.

C-reactive protein as a potential biomarker for disease progression in dengue: a multi-country observational study.

BACKGROUND: Dengue infection can cause a wide spectrum of clinical outcomes. The severe clinical manifestations occur sufficiently late in the disease course, during day 4-6 of illness, to allow a window of opportunity for risk stratification. Markers of inflammation may be useful biomarkers. We investigated the value of C-reactive protein (CRP) measured early on illness days 1-3 to predict dengue disease outcome and the difference in CRP levels between dengue and other febrile illnesses (OFI). METHOD: We performed a nested case-control study using the clinical data and samples collected from the IDAMS-consortium multi-country study. This was a prospective multi-center observational study that enrolled almost 8000 participants presenting with a dengue-like illness to outpatient facilities in 8 countries across Asia and Latin America. Predefined severity definitions of severe and intermediate dengue were used as the primary outcomes. A total of 281 cases with severe/intermediate dengue were compared to 836 uncomplicated dengue patients as controls (ratio 1:3), and also 394 patients with OFI. RESULTS: In patients with confirmed dengue, median (interquartile range) of CRP level within the first 3 days was 30.2 mg/L (12.4-61.2 mg/L) (uncomplicated dengue, 28.6 (10.5-58.9); severe or intermediate dengue, 34.0 (17.4-71.8)). Higher CRP levels in the first 3 days of illness were associated with a higher risk of severe or intermediate outcome (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07-1.29), especially in children. Higher CRP levels, exceeding 30 mg/L, also associated with hospitalization (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.14-1.64) and longer fever clearance time (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.93), especially in adults. CRP levels in patients with dengue were higher than patients with potential viral infection but lower than patients with potential bacterial infection, resulting in a quadratic association between dengue diagnosis and CRP, with levels of approximately 30 mg/L associated with the highest risk of having dengue. CRP had a positive correlation with total white cell count and neutrophils and negative correlation with lymphocytes, but did not correlate with liver transaminases, albumin, or platelet nadir. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, CRP measured in the first 3 days of illness could be a useful biomarker for early dengue risk prediction and may assist differentiating dengue from other febrile illnesses.

Development of Dengue Virus Serotype-Specific NS1 Capture Assays for the Rapid and Highly Sensitive Identification of the Infecting Serotype in Human Sera.

Dengue fever can be caused by one of four distinct dengue virus (DENV) serotypes that cocirculate in many parts of the world. Point of care serotype-specific nonstructural protein-1 (NS1) capture assays for the rapid serotyping of DENV in human sera would greatly support epidemiological surveillance and potentially also prognosis in individual patients. To ensure both serotype specificity and broad coverage of variants within serotypes, we have applied an innovative approach for the generation and selection of serotype-specific anti-NS1 mAbs. To elicit mAbs against conformational epitopes, NMRI mice were immunized with living HEK 293 transfectants expressing the native target Ags in multiple display on the cell surface. For each serotype, three different NS1 sequence variants were sequentially used for immunization of mice, hybridoma selection, and capture assay development, respectively. Selection of optimal combinations of capturing and detecting mAbs yielded highly sensitive and specific NS1 serotyping ELISAs (st-ELISAs) for the four serotypes. st-ELISA testing of 41 dengue patient sera showed a 100% concordance with the serotype determined by serotype-specific reverse transcriptase real-time quantitative PCR. The respective NS1 variants could be detected for ∼10 d after the onset of illness. Ab-dependent enhancement of DENV infections may be associated with a specific range of pre-existing anti-DENV serological Ab titers. Testing of patient sera with the developed st-ELISAs will not only be useful for epidemiological studies and surveillance, but it may also help to develop and validate assays that can distinguish protective versus enhancing Ab responses for risk assessment for the development of severe dengue disease in individual patients.

COVID-19 and newborn health: systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To describe perinatal and neonatal outcomes in newborns exposed to SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted by searching PubMed Central, LILACS, and Google Scholar using the keywords 'covid ' AND 'newborn' OR 'child' OR 'infant,' on 18 March 2020, and again on 17 April 2020. One researcher conducted the search and extracted data on demographics, maternal outcomes, diagnostic tests, imaging, and neonatal outcomes. RESULTS: Of 256 publications identified, 20 met inclusion criteria and comprised neonatal outcome data for 222 newborns whose mothers were suspected or confirmed to be SARS-CoV-2 positive perinatally (17 studies) or of newborns referred to hospital with infection/pneumonia (3 studies). Most (12 studies) were case-series reports; all were from China, except three (Australia, Iran, and Spain). Of the 222 newborns, 13 were reported as positive for SARS-CoV-2; most of the studies reported no or mild symptoms and no adverse perinatal outcomes. Two papers among those from newborns who tested positive reported moderate or severe clinical characteristics. Five studies using data on umbilical cord blood, placenta, and/or amniotic fluid reported no positive results. Nine studies reported radiographic imaging, including 5 with images of pneumonia, increased lung marking, thickened texture, or high-density nodular shadow. Minor, non-specific changes in biochemical variables were reported. Studies that tested breast milk reported negative SARS-CoV-2 results. CONCLUSIONS: Given the paucity of studies at this time, vertical transmission cannot be confirmed or denied. Current literature does not support abstaining from breastfeeding nor separating mothers and newborns. Further evidence and data collection networks, particularly in the Americas, are needed for establishing definitive guidelines and recommendations.

The association between Zika virus infection and microcephaly in Brazil 2015-2017: An observational analysis of over 4 million births.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, high rates of microcephaly were reported in Northeast Brazil following the first South American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. Reported microcephaly rates in other Zika-affected areas were significantly lower, suggesting alternate causes or the involvement of arboviral cofactors in exacerbating microcephaly rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We merged data from multiple national reporting databases in Brazil to estimate exposure to 9 known or hypothesized causes of microcephaly for every pregnancy nationwide since the beginning of the ZIKV outbreak; this generated between 3.6 and 5.4 million cases (depending on analysis) over the time period 1 January 2015-23 May 2017. The association between ZIKV and microcephaly was statistically tested against models with alternative causes or with effect modifiers. We found no evidence for alternative non-ZIKV causes of the 2015-2017 microcephaly outbreak, nor that concurrent exposure to arbovirus infection or vaccination modified risk. We estimate an absolute risk of microcephaly of 40.8 (95% CI 34.2-49.3) per 10,000 births and a relative risk of 16.8 (95% CI 3.2-369.1) given ZIKV infection in the first or second trimester of pregnancy; however, because ZIKV infection rates were highly variable, most pregnant women in Brazil during the ZIKV outbreak will have been subject to lower risk levels. Statistically significant associations of ZIKV with other birth defects were also detected, but at lower relative risks than that of microcephaly (relative risk < 1.5). Our analysis was limited by missing data prior to the establishment of nationwide ZIKV surveillance, and its findings may be affected by unmeasured confounding causes of microcephaly not available in routinely collected surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens the evidence that congenital ZIKV infection, particularly in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy, is associated with microcephaly and less frequently with other birth defects. The finding of no alternative causes for geographic differences in microcephaly rate leads us to hypothesize that the Northeast region was disproportionately affected by this Zika outbreak, with 94% of an estimated 8.5 million total cases occurring in this region, suggesting a need for seroprevalence surveys to determine the underlying reason.

Study protocol for the multicentre cohorts of Zika virus infection in pregnant women, infants, and acute clinical cases in Latin America and the Caribbean: the ZIKAlliance consortium.

BACKGROUND: The European Commission (EC) Horizon 2020 (H2020)-funded ZIKAlliance Consortium designed a multicentre study including pregnant women (PW), children (CH) and natural history (NH) cohorts. Clinical sites were selected over a wide geographic range within Latin America and the Caribbean, taking into account the dynamic course of the ZIKV epidemic. METHODS: Recruitment to the PW cohort will take place in antenatal care clinics. PW will be enrolled regardless of symptoms and followed over the course of pregnancy, approximately every 4 weeks. PW will be revisited at delivery (or after miscarriage/abortion) to assess birth outcomes, including microcephaly and other congenital abnormalities according to the evolving definition of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS). After birth, children will be followed for 2 years in the CH cohort. Follow-up visits are scheduled at ages 1-3, 4-6, 12, and 24 months to assess neurocognitive and developmental milestones. In addition, a NH cohort for the characterization of symptomatic rash/fever illness was designed, including follow-up to capture persisting health problems. Blood, urine, and other biological materials will be collected, and tested for ZIKV and other relevant arboviral diseases (dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever) using RT-PCR or serological methods. A virtual, decentralized biobank will be created. Reciprocal clinical monitoring has been established between partner sites. Substudies of ZIKV seroprevalence, transmission clustering, disabilities and health economics, viral kinetics, the potential role of antibody enhancement, and co-infections will be linked to the cohort studies. DISCUSSION: Results of these large cohort studies will provide better risk estimates for birth defects and other developmental abnormalities associated with ZIKV infection including possible co-factors for the variability of risk estimates between other countries and regions. Additional outcomes include incidence and transmission estimates of ZIKV during and after pregnancy, characterization of short and long-term clinical course following infection and viral kinetics of ZIKV. STUDY REGISTRATIONS: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03188731 (PW cohort), June 15, 2017; clinicaltrials.gov NCT03393286 (CH cohort), January 8, 2018; clinicaltrials.gov NCT03204409 (NH cohort), July 2, 2017.

The global distribution and burden of dengue.

Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries. METHODS: Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories. RESULTS: There was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p < 0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.

Development of standard clinical endpoints for use in dengue interventional trials: introduction and methodology.

BACKGROUND: As increasing numbers of dengue vaccines and therapeutics are in clinical development, standardized consensus clinical endpoint definitions are urgently needed to assess the efficacy of different interventions with respect to disease severity. We aimed to convene dengue experts representing various sectors and dengue endemic areas to review the literature and propose clinical endpoint definitions for moderate and severe disease based on the framework provided by the WHO 2009 classification. METHODS: The endpoints were first proposed and discussed in a structured expert consultation. After that, the Delphi method was carried out to assess the usefulness, validity and feasibility of the standardized clinical disease endpoints for interventional dengue research. RESULTS: Most respondents (> 80%) agreed there is a need for both standardized clinical endpoints and operationalization of severe endpoints. Most respondents (67%) felt there is utility for moderate severity endpoints, but cited challenges in their development. Hospitalization as a moderate endpoint of disease severity or measure of public health impact was deemed to be useful by only 47% of respondents, but 89% felt it could bring about supplemental information if carefully contextualized according to data collection setting. Over half of the respondents favored alignment of the standard endpoints with the WHO guidelines (58%), but cautioned that the endpoints could have ramifications for public health practice. In terms of data granularity of the endpoints, there was a slight preference for a categorical vs numeric system (e.g. 1-10) (47% vs 34%), and 74% of respondents suggested validating the endpoints using large prospective data sets. CONCLUSION: The structured consensus-building process was successful taking into account the history of the debate around potential endpoints for severe dengue. There is clear support for the development of standardized endpoints for interventional clinical research and the need for subsequent validation with prospective data sets. Challenges include the complexity of developing moderate disease research endpoints for dengue.