Influence of pump laser fluence on ultrafast myoglobin structural dynamics.

High-intensity femtosecond pulses from an X-ray free-electron laser enable pump-probe experiments for the investigation of electronic and nuclear changes during light-induced reactions. On timescales ranging from femtoseconds to milliseconds and for a variety of biological systems, time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) has provided detailed structural data for light-induced isomerization, breakage or formation of chemical bonds and electron transfer1,2. However, all ultrafast TR-SFX studies to date have employed such high pump laser energies that nominally several photons were absorbed per chromophore3-17. As multiphoton absorption may force the protein response into non-physiological pathways, it is of great concern18,19 whether this experimental approach20 allows valid conclusions to be drawn vis-à-vis biologically relevant single-photon-induced reactions18,19. Here we describe ultrafast pump-probe SFX experiments on the photodissociation of carboxymyoglobin, showing that different pump laser fluences yield markedly different results. In particular, the dynamics of structural changes and observed indicators of the mechanistically important coherent oscillations of the Fe-CO bond distance (predicted by recent quantum wavepacket dynamics21) are seen to depend strongly on pump laser energy, in line with quantum chemical analysis. Our results confirm both the feasibility and necessity of performing ultrafast TR-SFX pump-probe experiments in the linear photoexcitation regime. We consider this to be a starting point for reassessing both the design and the interpretation of ultrafast TR-SFX pump-probe experiments20 such that mechanistically relevant insight emerges.

Ultrafast structural changes direct the first molecular events of vision.

Vision is initiated by the rhodopsin family of light-sensitive G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs)1. A photon is absorbed by the 11-cis retinal chromophore of rhodopsin, which isomerizes within 200 femtoseconds to the all-trans conformation2, thereby initiating the cellular signal transduction processes that ultimately lead to vision. However, the intramolecular mechanism by which the photoactivated retinal induces the activation events inside rhodopsin remains experimentally unclear. Here we use ultrafast time-resolved crystallography at room temperature3 to determine how an isomerized twisted all-trans retinal stores the photon energy that is required to initiate the protein conformational changes associated with the formation of the G protein-binding signalling state. The distorted retinal at a 1-ps time delay after photoactivation has pulled away from half of its numerous interactions with its binding pocket, and the excess of the photon energy is released through an anisotropic protein breathing motion in the direction of the extracellular space. Notably, the very early structural motions in the protein side chains of rhodopsin appear in regions that are involved in later stages of the conserved class A GPCR activation mechanism. Our study sheds light on the earliest stages of vision in vertebrates and points to fundamental aspects of the molecular mechanisms of agonist-mediated GPCR activation.

Femtosecond-to-millisecond structural changes in a light-driven sodium pump.

Light-driven sodium pumps actively transport small cations across cellular membranes1. These pumps are used by microorganisms to convert light into membrane potential and have become useful optogenetic tools with applications in neuroscience. Although the resting state structures of the prototypical sodium pump Krokinobacter eikastus rhodopsin 2 (KR2) have been solved2,3, it is unclear how structural alterations over time allow sodium to be translocated against a concentration gradient. Here, using the Swiss X-ray Free Electron Laser4, we have collected serial crystallographic data at ten pump-probe delays from femtoseconds to milliseconds. High-resolution structural snapshots throughout the KR2 photocycle show how retinal isomerization is completed on the femtosecond timescale and changes the local structure of the binding pocket in the early nanoseconds. Subsequent rearrangements and deprotonation of the retinal Schiff base open an electrostatic gate in microseconds. Structural and spectroscopic data, in combination with quantum chemical calculations, indicate that a sodium ion binds transiently close to the retinal within one millisecond. In the last structural intermediate, at 20 milliseconds after activation, we identified a potential second sodium-binding site close to the extracellular exit. These results provide direct molecular insight into the dynamics of active cation transport across biological membranes.

RNAcanvas: interactive drawing and exploration of nucleic acid structures.

Two-dimensional drawing of nucleic acid structures, particularly RNA structures, is fundamental to the communication of nucleic acids research. However, manually drawing structures is laborious and infeasible for structures thousands of nucleotides long. RNAcanvas automatically arranges residues into strictly shaped stems and loops while providing robust interactive editing features, including click-and-drag layout adjustment. Drawn elements are highly customizable in a point-and-click manner, including colours, fonts, size and shading, flexible numbering, and outlining of bases. Tertiary interactions can be drawn as draggable, curved lines. Leontis-Westhof notation for depicting non-canonical base-pairs is fully supported, as well as text labels for structural features (e.g. hairpins). RNAcanvas also has many unique features and performance optimizations for large structures that cannot be correctly predicted and require manual refinement based on the researcher's own analyses and expertise. To this end, RNAcanvas has point-and-click structure editing with real-time highlighting of complementary sequences and motif search functionality, novel features that greatly aid in the identification of putative long-range tertiary interactions, de novo analysis of local structures, and phylogenetic comparisons. For ease in producing publication quality figures, drawings can be exported in both SVG and PowerPoint formats. URL: https://rnacanvas.app.

Regional Differences in Clinical Presentation and Prognosis of Patients With Post-Sustained Virologic Response Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Widespread use of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus infection has been paralleled with increased numbers of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving sustained virologic response (post-SVR HCC) worldwide. Few data compare regional differences in the presentation and prognosis of patients with post-SVR HCC. METHODS: We identified patients with advanced fibrosis (F3/F4) who developed incident post-SVR HCC between March 2015 and October 2021 from 30 sites in Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. We compared patient demographics, liver dysfunction, and tumor burden by region. We compared overall survival by region using Kaplan-Meier analysis and identified factors associated with survival using multivariable Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 8796 patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved SVR, 583 (6.6%) developed incident HCC. There was marked regional variation in the proportion of patients detected by surveillance (range: 59.5%-100%), median maximum tumor diameter (range, 1.8-5.0 cm), and the proportion with multinodular HCC (range, 15.4%-60.8%). The prognosis of patients highly varied by region (hazard ratio range, 1.82-9.92), with the highest survival rates in East Asia, North America, and South America, and the lowest survival rates in the Middle East and South Asia. After adjusting for geographic region, HCC surveillance was associated with early stage detection (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 71.0% vs 21.3%; P < .0001) and lower mortality rates (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.18-0.46). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical characteristics, including early stage detection, and prognosis of post-SVR HCC differed significantly across geographic regions. Surveillance utilization appears to be a high-yield intervention target to improve prognosis among patients with post-SVR HCC globally.

Amodiaquine Nonspecifically Binds Double Stranded and Three-Way Junction DNA Structures.

The 4-aminoquinoline class of compounds includes the important antimalarial compounds amodiaquine and chloroquine. Despite their medicinal importance, the mode of action of these compounds is poorly understood. In a previous study we observed these compounds, as well as quinine and mefloquine, tightly bind the DNA cocaine-binding aptamer. Here, we further explore the range of nucleic acid structures bound by these compounds. To gauge a wide range of binding affinities, we used isothermal titration calorimetry to explore high affinity binding (nM to tens of µM) and NMR spectroscopy to assay weak binding biding in the hundreds of micromolar range. We find that amodiaquine tightly binds all double stranded DNA structures explored. Mefloquine binds double stranded DNA duplex molecules tightly and weakly associates with a three-way junction DNA construct. Quinine and chloroquine only weakly bind duplex DNA but do not tightly bind any of the DNA constructs explored. A simulation of the free energy of binding of these ligands to the Dickerson-Drew dodecamer resulted in an excellent agreement between the simulated and experimental free energy. These results provide new insight into the DNA binding of clinically important antimalarial compounds and may play a role in future development of new antimalarials.

Correlation of refractive index based and THz streaking arrival time tools for a hard X-ray free-electron laser.

To fully exploit ultra-short X-ray pulse durations routinely available at X-ray free-electron lasers to follow out-of-equilibrium dynamics, inherent arrival time fluctuations of the X-ray pulse with an external perturbing laser pulse need to be measured. In this work, two methods of arrival time measurement were compared to measure the arrival time jitter of hard X-ray pulses. The methods were photoelectron streaking by a THz field and a transient refractive index change of a semiconductor. The methods were validated by shot-to-shot correction of a pump-probe transient reflectivity measurement. An ultimate shot-to-shot full width at half-maximum error between the devices of 19.2 ± 0.1 fs was measured.

Structural characterization of a new subclass of panicum mosaic virus-like 3' cap-independent translation enhancer.

Canonical eukaryotic mRNA translation requires 5'cap recognition by initiation factor 4E (eIF4E). In contrast, many positive-strand RNA virus genomes lack a 5'cap and promote translation by non-canonical mechanisms. Among plant viruses, PTEs are a major class of cap-independent translation enhancers located in/near the 3'UTR that recruit eIF4E to greatly enhance viral translation. Previous work proposed a single form of PTE characterized by a Y-shaped secondary structure with two terminal stem-loops (SL1 and SL2) atop a supporting stem containing a large, G-rich asymmetric loop that forms an essential pseudoknot (PK) involving C/U residues located between SL1 and SL2. We found that PTEs with less than three consecutive cytidylates available for PK formation have an upstream stem-loop that forms a kissing loop interaction with the apical loop of SL2, important for formation/stabilization of PK. PKs found in both subclasses of PTE assume a specific conformation with a hyperreactive guanylate (G*) in SHAPE structure probing, previously found critical for binding eIF4E. While PTE PKs were proposed to be formed by Watson-Crick base-pairing, alternative chemical probing and 3D modeling indicate that the Watson-Crick faces of G* and an adjacent guanylate have high solvent accessibilities. Thus, PTE PKs are likely composed primarily of non-canonical interactions.

Enhancement and maximum in the isobaric specific-heat capacity measurements of deeply supercooled water using ultrafast calorimetry.

Knowledge of the temperature dependence of the isobaric specific heat (Cp) upon deep supercooling can give insights regarding the anomalous properties of water. If a maximum in Cp exists at a specific temperature, as in the isothermal compressibility, it would further validate the liquid-liquid critical point model that can explain the anomalous increase in thermodynamic response functions. The challenge is that the relevant temperature range falls in the region where ice crystallization becomes rapid, which has previously excluded experiments. Here, we have utilized a methodology of ultrafast calorimetry by determining the temperature jump from femtosecond X-ray pulses after heating with an infrared laser pulse and with a sufficiently long time delay between the pulses to allow measurements at constant pressure. Evaporative cooling of ∼15-µm diameter droplets in vacuum enabled us to reach a temperature down to ∼228 K with a small fraction of the droplets remaining unfrozen. We observed a sharp increase in Cp, from 88 J/mol/K at 244 K to about 218 J/mol/K at 229 K where a maximum is seen. The Cp maximum is at a similar temperature as the maxima of the isothermal compressibility and correlation length. From the Cp measurement, we estimated the excess entropy and self-diffusion coefficient of water and these properties decrease rapidly below 235 K.

'Potentially curative therapies' for hepatocellular carcinoma: how many patients can actually be cured?

BACKGROUND: Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is predicated on early diagnosis such that 'curative therapies' can be successfully applied. The term 'curative' is, however, poorly quantitated. We aimed to complement our previous work by developing a statistical model to predict cure after ablation and to use this analysis to compare the true curative potential of the various 'curative' therapies. METHODS: We accessed data from 1571 HCC patients treated in 5 centres receiving radiofrequency (RFA) or microwave (MWA) ablation and used flexible parametric modelling to determine the curative fraction. The results of this analysis were then combined with our previous estimations to provide a simple calculator applicable to all patients undergoing potentially curative therapies. RESULTS: The cure fraction was 18.3% rising to about 40% in patients with good liver function and very small tumours. CONCLUSION: Cure for HCC treated with ablation occurs in the order of 20% to 30%, similar to that achievable by resection but much inferior to transplantation where the analogous figure is >70%. We provide a 'calculator' that permits clinicians to estimate the chance of cure for any individual patient, based on readily available clinical features.

Finding the Lost Dissociation Constant of Electrochemical Aptamer-Based Biosensors.

Electrochemical aptamer-based (E-AB) biosensors afford real-time measurements of the concentrations of molecules directly in complex matrices and in the body, offering alternative strategies to develop innovative personalized medicine tools. While different electroanalytical techniques have been used to interrogate E-AB sensors (i.e., cyclic voltammetry, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, and chronoamperometry) to resolve the change in electron transfer of the aptamer's covalently attached redox reporter, square-wave voltammetry remains a widely used technique due to its ability to maximize the redox reporter's faradic contribution to the measured current. Several E-AB sensors interrogated with this technique, however, show lower aptamer affinity (i.e., µM-mM) even in the face of employing aptamers that have high affinities (i.e., nM-µM) when characterized using solution techniques such as isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) or fluorescence spectroscopy. Given past reports showing that E-AB sensor's response is dependent on square-wave interrogation parameters (i.e., frequency and amplitude), we hypothesized that the difference in dissociation constants measured with solution techniques stemmed from the electrochemical interrogation technique itself. In response, we decided to compare six dissociation constants of aptamers when characterized in solution with ITC and when interrogated on electrodes with electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, a technique able to, in contrast to square-wave voltammetry, deconvolute and quantify E-AB sensors' contributions to the measured current. In doing so, we found that we were able to measure dissociation constants that were either separated by 2-3-fold or within experimental errors. These results are in contrast with square-wave voltammetry-measured dissociation constants that are at the most separated by 2-3 orders of magnitude from ones measured by ITC. We thus envision that the versatility and time scales covered by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy offer the highest sensitivity to measure target binding in electrochemical biosensors relying on changes in electron-transfer rates.

Redox Reporter - Ligand Competition to Support Signaling in the Cocaine-Binding Electrochemical Aptamer-Based Biosensor.

Electrochemical aptamer-based (E-AB) biosensors have demonstrated capabilities in monitoring molecules directly in undiluted complex matrices and in the body with the hopes of addressing personalized medicine challenges. This sensing platform relies on an electrode-bound, redox-reporter-modified aptamer. The electrochemical signal is thought to originate from the aptamer undergoing a binding-induced conformational change capable of moving the redox reporter closer to the electrode surface. While this is the generally accepted mechanism, it is notable that there is limited evidence demonstrating conformational change or distance-dependent change in electron transfer rates in E-AB sensors. In response, we investigate here the signal transduction of the well-studied cocaine-binding aptamer with different analytical methods and found that this sensor relies on a redox-reporter - ligand competition mechanism rather than a ligand-induced structure formation mechanism. Our results show that the covalently bound redox reporter, methylene blue, binds at or near the ligand binding site on the aptamer resulting in a folded conformation of the cocaine-binding aptamer. Addition of ligand then competes with the redox reporter for binding, altering its electron transfer rate. While we show this for the cocaine-binding aptamer, given the prevalence of methylene blue in E-AB sensors, a similar competition-based may occur in other systems.

Surveillance and treatment of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (aka. STOP HCC): protocol for a prospective cohort study of high-risk patients for HCC using GALAD-score.

BACKGROUND: Vietnam and Saudi Arabia have high disease burden of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Early detection in asymptomatic patients at risk for HCC is a strategy to improve survival outcomes in HCC management. GALAD score, a serum-based panel, has demonstrated promising clinical utility in HCC management. However, in order to ascertain its potential role in the surveillance of the early detection of HCC, GALAD needs to be validated prospectively for clinical surveillance of HCC (i.e., phase IV biomarker validation study). Thus, we propose to conduct a phase IV biomarker validation study to prospectively survey a cohort of patients with advanced fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis, irrespective of etiologies, using semi-annual abdominal ultrasound and GALAD score for five years. METHODS: We plan to recruit a cohort of 1,600 patients, male or female, with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis (i.e., F3 or F4) and MELD ≤ 15, in Vietnam and Saudi Arabia (n = 800 each). Individuals with a liver mass ≥ 1 cm in diameter, elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥ 9 ng/mL), and/or elevated GALAD score (≥ -0.63) will be scanned with dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and a diagnosis of HCC will be made by Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LiRADS) assessment (LiRADS-5). Additionally, those who do not exhibit abnormal imaging findings, elevated AFP titer, and/or elevated GALAD score will obtain a dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI annually for five years to assess for HCC. Only MRI nearest to the time of GALAD score measurement, ultrasound and/or AFP evaluation will be included in the diagnostic validation analysis. MRI will be replaced with an abdominal computed tomography scan when MRI results are poor due to patient conditions such as movement etc. Gadolinium-ethoxybenzyl-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid-enhanced MRI will not be carried out in study sites in both countries. Bootstrap resampling technique will be used to account for repeated measures to estimate standard errors and confidence intervals. Additionally, we will use the Cox proportional hazards regression model with covariates tailored to the hypothesis under investigation for time-to-HCC data as predicted by time-varying biomarker data. DISCUSSION: The present work will evaluate the performance of GALAD score in early detection of liver cancer. Furthermore, by leveraging the prospective cohort, we will establish a biorepository of longitudinally collected biospecimens from patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis to be used as a reference set for future research in early detection of HCC in the two countries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Name of the registry: ClinicalTrials.gov Registration date: 22 April 2022 Trial registration number: NCT05342350 URL of trial registry record.

European' health care indicators and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality: A mediation analysis of Eurostat data and Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

AIM: To highlight correlations existing between incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer, and health care indicators in 36 European countries. METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and Eurostat databases were queried between 2004 and 2019. Incidence and mortality were age-standardized. From Eurostat, indicators regarding expenditure, hospital beds, medical technology, health personnel, physicians by medical specialty and unmet needs for medical examination were extracted. Correlations between GBD and Eurostat data were analysed through mediation analysis applying clustering for countries. RESULTS: Incidence increased by +0.6% per year (p = 0.001) and mortality by +0.3% (p = 0.001), being increasing for most of the European countries considered. Incidence and mortality were strongly positively correlated (p = 0.001). Higher current health expenditure, expenditure in inpatient curative care, the number of available beds, the number of computed tomography scan, magnetic resonance units, practising medical doctors were all related to higher incidence (p < 0.05), whereas the unmet need for medical examinations was related to lower incidence. When the mediator' effect of incidence was handled, these indicators, together with expenditure on outpatient curative cares, the number of pet scanners and of radiation therapy equipment, were related to lower mortality (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Health care environment correlates with reported incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer. This highlights both that ameliorated socio-economic societies suffer from higher incidence but lower mortality, as well as the epidemiological bias originating from countries' diagnostic ability.

A complete Neandertal mitochondrial genome sequence determined by high-throughput sequencing.

A complete mitochondrial (mt) genome sequence was reconstructed from a 38,000 year-old Neandertal individual with 8341 mtDNA sequences identified among 4.8 Gb of DNA generated from approximately 0.3 g of bone. Analysis of the assembled sequence unequivocally establishes that the Neandertal mtDNA falls outside the variation of extant human mtDNAs, and allows an estimate of the divergence date between the two mtDNA lineages of 660,000 +/- 140,000 years. Of the 13 proteins encoded in the mtDNA, subunit 2 of cytochrome c oxidase of the mitochondrial electron transport chain has experienced the largest number of amino acid substitutions in human ancestors since the separation from Neandertals. There is evidence that purifying selection in the Neandertal mtDNA was reduced compared with other primate lineages, suggesting that the effective population size of Neandertals was small.

Spin cascade and doming in ferric hemes: Femtosecond X-ray absorption and X-ray emission studies.

The structure-function relationship is at the heart of biology, and major protein deformations are correlated to specific functions. For ferrous heme proteins, doming is associated with the respiratory function in hemoglobin and myoglobins. Cytochrome c (Cyt c) has evolved to become an important electron-transfer protein in humans. In its ferrous form, it undergoes ligand release and doming upon photoexcitation, but its ferric form does not release the distal ligand, while the return to the ground state has been attributed to thermal relaxation. Here, by combining femtosecond Fe Kα and Kß X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) with Fe K-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES), we demonstrate that the photocycle of ferric Cyt c is entirely due to a cascade among excited spin states of the iron ion, causing the ferric heme to undergo doming, which we identify. We also argue that this pattern is common to a wide diversity of ferric heme proteins, raising the question of the biological relevance of doming in such proteins.

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma with heterotopic ossification, lymphovascular invasion, and nodal and pulmonary metastases in a 23-year-old Morgan gelding.

Primary squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck occurs in the skin or squamous epithelial lining tissues of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, and sinonasal tract. Although it is a common tumor in horses, distant metastatic spread to the lung is rare. This report describes a case of metastatic pulmonary squamous cell carcinoma in a 23-year-old Morgan gelding. The clinical signs displayed by this gelding in some ways mimicked the typical presentation of equine multinodular pulmonary fibrosis or thoracic lymphoma. The postmortem diagnosis in this case was head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, but a primary site of origin could not be ascertained. Cancer-associated heterotopic ossification (HO) was also identified in this case; this is an exceedingly rare finding with equine pulmonary neoplasia. Key clinical message: Careful physical examination should be undertaken in all horses presenting with clinical signs of intrathoracic disease. Clinical and radiographic abnormalities in this case of pulmonary metastatic disease resembled some of those associated with interstitial pneumonia. Rarely encountered in domestic animal species, there has been only 1 previous report of HO in a case of oronasal carcinoma in a horse.

Carcinome épidermoïde de la tête et du cou avec ossification hétérotopique, envahissement lymphovasculaire et métastases ganglionnaires et pulmonaires chez un hongre Morgan de 23 ans. Le carcinome épidermoïde primitif de la tête et du cou survient dans la peau ou les tissus épithéliaux squameux de la cavité buccale, du pharynx, du larynx et du tractus naso-sinusien. Bien qu'il s'agisse d'une tumeur courante chez les chevaux, la propagation métastatique à distance au poumon est rare. Ce rapport décrit un cas de carcinome épidermoïde pulmonaire métastatique chez un hongre Morgan de 23 ans. Les signes cliniques présentés par ce hongre imitaient à certains égards la présentation typique de la fibrose pulmonaire multinodulaire équine ou du lymphome thoracique. Le diagnostic post-mortem dans ce cas était un carcinome épidermoïde de la tête et du cou, mais un site d'origine primaire n'a pas pu être déterminé. L'ossification hétérotopique associée au cancer (HO) a également été identifiée dans ce cas; il s'agit d'une découverte extrêmement rare avec la néoplasie pulmonaire équine.Message clinique clé :Un examen physique attentif doit être entrepris chez tous les chevaux présentant des signes cliniques de maladie intrathoracique. Les anomalies cliniques et radiographiques dans ce cas de maladie pulmonaire métastatique ressemblaient à certaines de celles associées à la pneumonie interstitielle. Rarement rencontré chez les espèces animales domestiques, il n'y a eu qu'un seul signalement antérieur d'HO dans un cas de carcinome oronasal chez un cheval.(Traduit par Dr Serge Messier).

Evaluation of the aMAP score for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: a realistic opportunity to risk stratify.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The aMAP score is a model that predicts risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis. Its performance in a 'real world' surveillance setting has not yet been ascertained. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We had access to a cohort of 3473 individuals enrolled in a rigorously implemented and prospectively accrued surveillance programme (patients undergoing regular ultrasound and biomarker examination between 1998 and 2021). During this period 445 had HCC detected. Of these, 77.8% had early stage disease (within Milan criteria), permitting potentially curative therapy to be implemented in nearly 70% of cases. We applied the recently developed aMAP score to classify patients according to their initial aMAP score in to low, medium and high-risk groups as proposed in the original publication. The performance of the aMAP score was assessed according to the concordance-index and calibration (i.e. agreement between observed and predicted risk). Allowance was made for competing causes of death. RESULTS: The aMAP score achieved an overall C-index of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79-0.82) consistent with the initial report and was unaffected by allowance for competing causes of death. Sub-group analysis showed that the results did not change significantly according to gender, or aetiology. However, aMAP discrimination was greater for younger individuals (versus older individuals), and also for individuals without cirrhosis. The HCC incidence rate was 0.98, 7.05 and 29.1 events per 1000 person-years in the low-, moderate- and high-risk aMAP groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this 'real-world' cohort demonstrate that risk stratification is a realistic prospect and that identification of a subgroup of chronic liver disease patients who have a very low risk of HCC is feasible.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Dynamics and turnover of memory CD8 T cell responses following yellow fever vaccination.

Understanding how immunological memory lasts a lifetime requires quantifying changes in the number of memory cells as well as how their division and death rates change over time. We address these questions by using a statistically powerful mixed-effects differential equations framework to analyze data from two human studies that follow CD8 T cell responses to the yellow fever vaccine (YFV-17D). Models were first fit to the frequency of YFV-specific memory CD8 T cells and deuterium enrichment in those cells 42 days to 1 year post-vaccination. A different dataset, on the loss of YFV-specific CD8 T cells over three decades, was used to assess out of sample predictions of our models. The commonly used exponential and bi-exponential decline models performed relatively poorly. Models with the cell loss following a power law (exactly or approximately) were most predictive. Notably, using only the first year of data, these models accurately predicted T cell frequencies up to 30 years post-vaccination. Our analyses suggest that division rates of these cells drop and plateau at a low level (0.1% per day, ∼ double the estimated values for naive T cells) within one year following vaccination, whereas death rates continue to decline for much longer. Our results show that power laws can be predictive for T cell memory, a finding that may be useful for vaccine evaluation and epidemiological modeling. Moreover, since power laws asymptotically decline more slowly than any exponential decline, our results help explain the longevity of immune memory phenomenologically.