Spatial and temporal variation in survival of a rare reptile: a 22-year study of Sonoran desert tortoises.

Although many species may be vulnerable to changes in climate, forecasting species-level responses can be challenging given the array of physiological, behavioral, and demographic attributes that might be affected. One strategy to improve forecasts is to evaluate how species responded to climatic variation in the past. We used 22 years of capture-recapture data for Sonoran desert tortoises (Gopherus morafkai) collected from 15 locations across their geographic range in Arizona to evaluate how environmental factors affected spatial and temporal variation in survival. Although rates of annual survival were generally high ([Formula: see text] = 0.92), survival of adults decreased with drought severity, especially in portions of their range that were most arid and nearest to cities. In three locations where large numbers of carcasses from marked tortoises were recovered, survival of adults was markedly lower during periods of severe drought ([Formula: see text] = 0.77-0.81) compared to all other periods ([Formula: see text] = 0.93-0.98). Assuming continued levels of dependency of humans on fossil fuels, survival of adult tortoises is predicted to decrease by an average of 3 % during 2035-2060 relative to survival during 1987-2008 in 14 of the 15 populations we studied. This decrease could reduce persistence of tortoise populations, especially in arid portions of their range. Temporal and spatial variation in drought conditions are important determinants of survival in adult desert tortoises.

Testing Taxon Tenacity of Tortoises: evidence for a geographical selection gradient at a secondary contact zone.

We examined a secondary contact zone between two species of desert tortoise, Gopherus agassizii and G. morafkai. The taxa were isolated from a common ancestor during the formation of the Colorado River (4-8 mya) and are a classic example of allopatric speciation. However, an anomalous population of G. agassizii comes into secondary contact with G. morafkai east of the Colorado River in the Black Mountains of Arizona and provides an opportunity to examine reinforcement of species' boundaries under natural conditions. We sampled 234 tortoises representing G. agassizii in California (n - 103), G. morafkai in Arizona (n - 78), and 53 individuals of undetermined assignment in the contact zone including and surrounding the Black Mountains. We genotyped individuals for 25 STR loci and determined maternal lineage using mtDNA sequence data. We performed multilocus genetic clustering analyses and used multiple statistical methods to detect levels of hybridization. We tested hypotheses about habitat use between G. agassizii and G. morafkai in the region where they co-occur using habitat suitability models. Gopherus agassizii and G. morafkai maintain independent taxonomic identities likely due to ecological niche partitioning, and the maintenance of the hybrid zone is best described by a geographical selection gradient model.