RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol consumption has decreased in England in recent decades, while alcohol-specific death rates have remained relatively stable. Age-period-cohort (APC) models offer the potential for understanding these paradoxical trends. This study aimed to use an APC model approach to measure long-term trends in alcohol abstention and consumption in England from 2001 to 2019. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The study used grouped and proxy-variable APC models of repeat cross-sectional survey data, set in England (2001-19). Participants were residents in England aged 13 years or over who took part in the Health Survey for England. MEASUREMENTS: Outcome variables were alcohol abstention and consumption in units. We created nine age groups (13-15, 16-17, 18-24, 25-34, until 65-74 and 75+, reference 45-54 years), four periods (2001-04, 2005-09, 2010-14 to 2015-19, reference 2005-09) and 18 5-year birth cohorts (1915-19 to 2000-04, reference 1960-64). We proxied age effects (systolic and diastolic blood pressure), period effects (alcohol affordability, internet usage and household alcohol expenditure) and birth cohort effects (prevalence of smoking and prevalence of overweight). FINDINGS: The odds of abstaining were considerably larger at young ages, 13-15 years [odds ratio (OR) = 5.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.50-6.43], were lowest during the first period, 2001-04 (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.79-0.86) and had a U-shaped pattern by birth cohort. For units of alcohol, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) increased until age 18-24 years (IRR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.34-1.48) and decreased afterwards, were highest during the first period, 2001-04 (IRR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.05-1.08) and showed an inverted J-shape by birth cohort. Our proxy variable approach revealed that using blood pressure measures, alcohol affordability and prevalence of overweight as proxies resulted in APC effects that differed from our base-case model. However, internet usage, household expenditure on alcohol and smoking prevalence resulted in APC effects similar to our base-case model. CONCLUSIONS: The discrepancy between decreasing alcohol consumption and increasing alcohol-related deaths observed in England from 2001 to 2019 may, in part, be explained by the halt in abstention trends since 2010 and a slight consumption decline since 2001.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Since the early 2000s, there have been marked trends in adolescent health and wellbeing indicators across Europe, North America and Australia. In particular, there have been substantial declines in youth drinking. We know little about how these trends are underpinned by co-occurring indicators within individuals. This paper aims to analyse change over time in how indicators cluster within individuals and differences in these patterns between five countries with different trends in youth drinking. METHODS: We analysed four waves of repeat cross-sectional survey data from 15-year-olds in England (n = 5942), Italy (n = 5234), the Netherlands (n = 5408), Hungary (n = 5274), and Finland (n = 7446), which were included in the Health Behaviours in School-aged Children (HBSC) study between 2001/02 and 2013/14. We defined clusters of individuals using multigroup latent class analyses which accounts for change over time. The class indicators included health behaviours, attitudes, wellbeing and relationships. We modelled associations between class membership, sex, and family affluence over time. RESULTS: We identified four classes in all countries: Overall unhealthy, Overall healthy, Moderately healthy and Substance abstainers with behaviour risk indicators. The proportion of adolescents in the Overall unhealthy class declined between 2001/02 and 2013/14 by between 22.8 percentage points (pp) in England and 3.2pp in Italy. The extent to which indicators of health and wellbeing changed as linked clusters differed across countries, but changes in alcohol consumption, smoking, drug use and sexual activity were typically concurrent. Adolescents with low family affluence were more likely to be in the Overall unhealthy class in all years. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in indicators of adolescent health and well-being are due mainly to concurrent declines in drinking, smoking, sexual activity, and cannabis use, but these declines are not consistently associated with improvements in other domains. They have also not led to reductions in inequalities in indicators of health and well-being.