Is the future female for turtles? Climate change and wetland configuration predict sex ratios of a freshwater species.

Climate change and land-use change are leading drivers of biodiversity decline, affecting demographic parameters that are important for population persistence. For example, scientists have speculated for decades that climate change may skew adult sex ratios in taxa that express temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), but limited evidence exists that this phenomenon is occurring in natural settings. For species that are vulnerable to anthropogenic land-use practices, differential mortality among sexes may also skew sex ratios. We sampled the spotted turtle (Clemmys guttata), a freshwater species with TSD, across a large portion of its geographic range (Florida to Maine), to assess the environmental factors influencing adult sex ratios. We present evidence that suggests recent climate change has potentially skewed the adult sex ratio of spotted turtles, with samples following a pattern of increased proportions of females concomitant with warming trends, but only within the warmer areas sampled. At intermediate temperatures, there was no relationship with climate, while in the cooler areas we found the opposite pattern, with samples becoming more male biased with increasing temperatures. These patterns might be explained in part by variation in relative adaptive capacity via phenotypic plasticity in nest site selection. Our findings also suggest that spotted turtles have a context-dependent and multi-scale relationship with land use. We observed a negative relationship between male proportion and the amount of crop cover (within 300 m) when wetlands were less spatially aggregated. However, when wetlands were aggregated, sex ratios remained consistent. This pattern may reflect sex-specific patterns in movement that render males more vulnerable to mortality from agricultural machinery and other threats. Our findings highlight the complexity of species' responses to both climate change and land use, and emphasize the role that landscape structure can play in shaping wildlife population demographics.

Generating indicator species for bird monitoring within the humid forests of northeast Central America.

The use of indicator species can simplify bird monitoring by reducing the level of specialized skills needed, which increases the potential pool of participants and reduces training costs and complexity. To facilitate monitoring in the humid forests of northeast Central America, we conducted point count surveys for birds across gradients of disturbance in the Cockscomb Basin Wildlife Sanctuary, Belize, and analyzed the association of bird species with remotely sensed metrics of forest condition and anthropogenic disturbance using indicator species analysis. Twenty species exhibited significant associations with one or more of these metrics. We propose six species as indicators for anthropogenic disturbance based on our criteria of being associated with anthropogenically disturbed sites, or anthropogenically disturbed and riparian sites with no explicit mention in the literature of an obligate association with riparian habitats, or association of remotely sensed metrics that appeared to reflect disturbance: yellow-olive flycatcher, red-legged honeycreeper, dusky antbird, blue ground dove, buff-throated saltator, and brown jay. We propose the keel-billed motmot as an indicator of undisturbed forest based on its association with forested sites in our analyses. Green shrike vireo, collard trogon, rufous-tailed jacamar, and rufous piha were associated with a specific elevational range but not associated with disturbance, so upward shifts in elevation that might indicate response to climate change would not be confounded with habitat disturbance or degradation. This exercise yielded a much-reduced list of monitoring targets, which will greatly reduce the cost and complexity of forest bird monitoring in the region, as well as reducing barriers to participation.

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change.

Factors affecting the nesting success of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevational gradient.

Montane birds experience a range of challenges that may limit their breeding success, including nest predation and severe climactic conditions. The continuing effects of climate change are causing shifts in biotic and abiotic factors that may compound these threats to montane bird species. In northeastern montane forests, many bird species are shifting downslope, potentially as the result of increased precipitation and temperature at higher elevations. Although lower elevations might be more favorable in terms of climactic conditions, nest predation is higher at lower elevations. Thus, montane birds might be faced with the opposing pressures of adverse climactic conditions at higher elevations and increased predation at lower elevations. We monitored nests of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevation gradient in the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire in 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2021 to examine the effect of biotic and abiotic factors on daily nest survival rate (DSR). Linear time explained the most variation of DSR in AICc model comparison, indicating that DSR decreases across the breeding season. Rain intensity (mm/h) had a weak negative effect on DSR, indicating that heavier rain per hour decreases Swainson's Thrush DSR. Moreover, we found some support for a negative interaction effect of elevation in conjunction with minimum daily temperature: DSR of Swainson's Thrush nests at low elevations (281 m) increased with increasing minimum daily temperatures and decreased at high elevations with increasing minimum daily temperatures. Our results suggest nesting survival of montane breeding birds may be at risk as heavier precipitation events become more frequent and intense due to the changing climate and raises the possibility that other passerine species could be at risk in this system.

Ecological filtering shapes the impacts of agricultural deforestation on biodiversity.

The biodiversity impacts of agricultural deforestation vary widely across regions. Previous efforts to explain this variation have focused exclusively on the landscape features and management regimes of agricultural systems, neglecting the potentially critical role of ecological filtering in shaping deforestation tolerance of extant species assemblages at large geographical scales via selection for functional traits. Here we provide a large-scale test of this role using a global database of species abundance ratios between matched agricultural and native forest sites that comprises 71 avian assemblages reported in 44 primary studies, and a companion database of 10 functional traits for all 2,647 species involved. Using meta-analytic, phylogenetic and multivariate methods, we show that beyond agricultural features, filtering by the extent of natural environmental variability and the severity of historical anthropogenic deforestation shapes the varying deforestation impacts across species assemblages. For assemblages under greater environmental variability-proxied by drier and more seasonal climates under a greater disturbance regime-and longer deforestation histories, filtering has attenuated the negative impacts of current deforestation by selecting for functional traits linked to stronger deforestation tolerance. Our study provides a previously largely missing piece of knowledge in understanding and managing the biodiversity consequences of deforestation by agricultural deforestation.

A small-scale land-sparing approach to conserving biological diversity in tropical agricultural landscapes.

Two contrasting strategies have been proposed for conserving biological diversity while meeting the increasing demand for agricultural products: land sparing and land sharing production systems. Land sparing involves increasing yield to reduce the amount of land needed for agriculture, whereas land-sharing agricultural practices incorporate elements of native ecosystems into the production system itself. Although the conservation value of these systems has been extensively debated, empirical studies are lacking. We compared bird communities in shade coffee, a widely practiced land-sharing system in which shade trees are maintained within the coffee plantation, with bird communities in a novel, small-scale, land-sparing coffee-production system (integrated open canopy or IOC coffee) in which farmers obtain higher yields under little or no shade while conserving an area of forest equal to the area under cultivation. Species richness and diversity of forest-dependent birds were higher in the IOC coffee farms than in the shade coffee farms, and community composition was more similar between IOC coffee and primary forest than between shade coffee and primary forest. Our study represents the first empirical comparison of well-defined land sparing and land sharing production systems. Because IOC coffee farms can be established by allowing forest to regenerate on degraded land, widespread adoption of this system could lead to substantial increases in forest cover and carbon sequestration without compromising agricultural yield or threatening the livelihoods of traditional small farmers. However, we studied small farms (<5 ha); thus, our results may not generalize to large-scale land-sharing systems. Furthermore, rather than concluding that land sparing is generally superior to land sharing, we suggest that the optimal approach depends on the crop, local climate, and existing land-use patterns.

Abundant, distinct, and seasonally dynamic bee community in the canopy-aerosphere interface above a temperate forest.

Our understanding of how bees (Apoidea) use temperate forests is largely limited to sampling the understory and forest floor. Studies over the last decade have demonstrated that bee communities are vertically stratified within forests, yet the ecology of bee assemblages immediately above the canopy, the canopy-aerosphere interface, remains unexplored. We sampled and compared bee communities above the canopy of a temperate forest to the understory (1 m), midstory (10 m), and canopy (20 m) on the campus of the University of Massachusetts, in Amherst, Massachusetts, United States from April to August, 2021. Overall, we found that assemblages above the canopy had more bees than in the understory, were distinct in composition from all other strata, and included the greatest proportion of unique species. Bee abundance and species richness were highest in the understory throughout the spring (April and May) and decreased as the season progressed, while bee abundance and species richness at higher strata increased into the summer months. We also found that bees with preferences to nest in moist and rotting wood were largely restricted to canopy and midstory strata. We conclude that bee assemblages occupying the space above the forest canopy are abundant and diverse, and their unique composition suggests that this canopy-aerosphere interface plays an additional role in the bee community of temperate forests. Alternatively, our findings question how forest bee communities should be defined while highlighting the need for research on fundamental processes governing species stratification in and above the canopy.

Inference about density and temporary emigration in unmarked populations.

Few species are distributed uniformly in space, and populations of mobile organisms are rarely closed with respect to movement, yet many models of density rely upon these assumptions. We present a hierarchical model allowing inference about the density of unmarked populations subject to temporary emigration and imperfect detection. The model can be fit to data collected using a variety of standard survey methods such as repeated point counts in which removal sampling, double-observer sampling, or distance sampling is used during each count. Simulation studies demonstrated that parameter estimators are unbiased when temporary emigration is either "completely random" or is determined by the size and location of home ranges relative to survey points. We also applied the model to repeated removal sampling data collected on Chestnut-sided Warblers (Dendroica pensylvancia) in the White Mountain National Forest, U.S.A. The density estimate from our model, 1.09 birds/ha, was similar to an estimate of 1.11 birds/ha produced by an intensive spot-mapping effort. Our model is also applicable when processes other than temporary emigration affect the probability of being available for detection, such as in studies using cue counts. Functions to implement the model have been added to the R package unmarked.

Hatching date influences winter habitat occupancy: Examining seasonal interactions across the full annual cycle in a migratory songbird.

Birds experience a sequence of critical events during their life cycle, and past events can subsequently determine future performance via carry-over effects. Events during the non-breeding season may influence breeding season phenology or productivity. Less is understood about how events during the breeding season affect individuals subsequently in their life cycle. Using stable carbon isotopes, we examined carry-over effects throughout the annual cycle of prairie warblers (Setophaga discolor), a declining Nearctic-Neotropical migratory passerine bird. In drier winters, juvenile males that hatched earlier at our study site in Massachusetts, USA, occupied wetter, better-quality winter habitat in the Caribbean, as indicated by depleted carbon isotope signatures. For juveniles that were sampled again as adults, repeatability in isotope signatures indicated similar winter habitat occupancy across years. Thus, hatching date of juvenile males appears to influence lifetime winter habitat occupancy. For adult males, reproductive success did not carry over to influence winter habitat occupancy. We did not find temporally consecutive "domino" effects across the annual cycle (breeding to wintering to breeding) or interseasonal, intergenerational effects. Our finding that a male's hatching date can have a lasting effect on winter habitat occupancy represents an important contribution to our understanding of seasonal interactions in migratory birds.

Investigating the role of matrix habitat use in determining avian area-sensitivity.

The absence of some species from small habitat patches has long posed a challenge for conservationists, yet the underlying mechanisms that cause this "area-sensitivity" remain poorly understood. Capacity of a species to extend their activities into the surrounding matrix habitat represents one potential determinant of area-sensitivity. Species may be able to occupy smaller patches if they can utilize matrix habitat beyond patch boundaries, whereas area-sensitive species may be restricted to larger patches due to their inability to utilize the surrounding matrix. We investigated the potential role of matrix utilization in determining area-sensitivity by mapping the movements of two shrubland-obligate passerines with contrasting patch area requirements in shrub-dominated forest openings ranging in area by nearly an order of magnitude. Our findings were consistent with our predictions; the less area-sensitive chestnut-sided warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica) exhibited greater use of matrix habitat than the highly area-sensitive prairie warbler (S. discolor). Furthermore, chestnut-sided warblers that occupied smaller openings used mature forest more than conspecifics in larger patches, yet forest use by prairie warblers was unrelated to opening size. Chestnut-sided warblers foraged as frequently in mature forest as within shrubland, whereas prairie warblers foraged significantly more in openings compared to forest. The findings of this study suggest that the ability or inclination of a species to utilize surrounding matrix habitat explains at least some of the observed variation in area-sensitivity in songbirds and potentially other taxa.

Modeling animal habitats based on cover types: a critical review.

The simplest type of model describing animal habitats is a "cover-type model," in which a species is assumed to be present in certain vegetation types and absent in others. Ecologists and managers use these models to predict animal distributions for gap analysis and conservation planning. Critics, however, have suggested that the models are overly simplistic and inaccurate. We reviewed the use of cover-type models including assessing their error rates, diagnosing the problems with these models, and determining how they should best be used by managers. To determine models' accuracy rates, we conducted a meta-analysis of 35 studies in which cover-type models were tested against data on animal occurrences. Models had a mean accuracy rate of 0.71 +/- 0.18 (SD). Rates of commission error averaged 0.20 +/- 0.16, and omission errors averaged 0.09 +/- 0.11. A review of the effects of errors in conservation planning suggests that the observed error rates were high enough to call into question any management decisions based on these models. Reasons for the high error rates of cover-type models include the fallibility of expert opinion, the fact that the models oversimplify how animals actually use habitats, and the dynamic nature of animal populations. Given the high rate of errors in cover-type models, any conclusions based on them should be taken with extreme caution. We suggest that these models are best used as coarse filters to identify locations for further study in the field.

Rainfall and habitat interact to affect the condition of a wintering migratory songbird in The Bahamas.

On the subtropical and tropical wintering grounds of migratory birds, variation in moisture levels and habitat can influence the availability of food resources and subsequently impact overwintering birds. Using stable carbon isotopes in blood samples as a measure of moisture, we assessed the interactive effects of rainfall, vegetation, and moisture on the demographics and condition of Prairie Warblers (Setophaga discolor) wintering in The Bahamas. Carbon isotopes in Prairie Warbler blood were more depleted in taller, wetter habitats; we additionally detected novel temporal effects of rainfall on isotope values. During a winter with more rainfall, most birds maintained mass and pectoral muscle regardless of the habitat type occupied. In a winter with less rainfall, birds lost mass and pectoral muscle, and this effect was more pronounced in birds with enriched isotope values and birds that occupied drier, shorter habitat. Prairie Warblers exhibited strong patterns of sexual habitat segregation with males disproportionately observed in areas with taller vegetation and females in shorter vegetation. During the drier winter, older males had better maintenance of pectoral muscle compared to females and younger individuals. Also in the drier winter, daily rainfall patterns explained more of the variation in body condition compared to the date of capture; pectoral muscle was best explained by recent precipitation (during the previous 30 days), while size-corrected mass was more a function of longer-term (90-day) rainfall and habitat moisture. Our findings along with other studies suggest that Prairie Warblers and other migratory birds are sensitive to interactions between annual variation in winter rainfall, within-season daily rainfall patterns, and habitat quality. Increasing drought and habitat loss in the Caribbean may be having a negative impact on wintering bird populations. To best conserve Nearctic-Neotropical migratory passerines in the region, we recommend prioritizing the protection of the least drought-prone wintering areas.

Are shrubland birds edge specialists?

In studies of forest fragmentation, birds of scrubby, early-successional habitats are considered edge specialists. Because these birds are assumed to thrive in fragmented, edge-dominated areas, their landscape ecology has received little attention from ecologists. With populations of shrubland birds declining throughout the eastern United States, the question of whether or not these birds really prefer edge habitats has important conservation implications. We used a meta-analysis to test how edges affect the abundance of shrubland birds in early-successional habitats. We analyzed data for 17 species from seven studies that compared the abundances of birds in the interiors and edges of regenerating clearcuts surrounded by mature forest. The meta-analysis clearly showed that shrubland birds avoid edges. All 17 species tested had higher abundances in patch centers than along edges, and edge effects were significant for 8 of 17 species. The key implication of this result is that small or irregular patches, dominated by edge, are unlikely to provide suitable habitat for shrubland birds. Thus, management for these declining species should involve providing large patches and minimizing edges. These findings demonstrate the importance of testing widely accepted ecological classifications and the need to view landscape ecology from the perspective of non-forest wildlife.

Modeling movement of West Nile virus in the Western hemisphere.

We modeled West Nile virus (WNV) movement rates and patterns based on a migratory bird agent (the Swainson's Thrush) and a resident bird agent (the House Sparrow), and compared the results of these models with actual movement data to investigate the likelihood that the pattern of WNV outbreaks observed in the New World was consistent with migrant bird-mediated spread, as reported from the Old World. We found that, contrary to Old World patterns, WNV activity in the Western Hemisphere does not seem consistent with movement by infected migrant birds. Instead WNV spread appears best explained by a non-directional movement, perhaps that of dispersing resident birds.

The effect of local and landscape-level characteristics on the abundance of forest birds in early-successional habitats during the post-fledging season in western Massachusetts.

Many species of mature forest-nesting birds ("forest birds") undergo a pronounced shift in habitat use during the post-fledging period and move from their forest nesting sites into areas of early-successional vegetation. Mortality is high during this period, thus understanding the resource requirements of post-fledging birds has implications for conservation. Efforts to identify predictors of abundance of forest birds in patches of early-successional habitats have so far been equivocal, yet these previous studies have primarily focused on contiguously forested landscapes and the potential for landscape-scale influences in more fragmented and modified landscapes is largely unknown. Landscape composition can have a strong influence on the abundance and productivity of forest birds during the nesting period, and could therefore affect the number of forest birds in the landscape available to colonize early-successional habitats during the post-fledging period. Therefore, the inclusion of landscape characteristics should increase the explanatory power of models of forest bird abundance in early-successional habitat patches during the post-fledging period. We examined forest bird abundance and body condition in relation to landscape and habitat characteristics of 15 early-successional sites during the post-fledging season in Massachusetts. The abundance of forest birds was influenced by within-patch habitat characteristics, however the explanatory power of these models was significantly increased by the inclusion of landscape fragmentation and the abundance of forest birds in adjacent forest during the nesting period for some species and age groups. Our findings show that including factors beyond the patch scale can explain additional variation in the abundance of forest birds in early-successional habitats during the post-fledging period. We conclude that landscape composition should be considered when siting early-successional habitat to maximize its benefit to forest birds during the post-fledging period, and should also be included in future investigations of post-fledging habitat use by forest birds.