How to enhance the applicability of a risk prediction model for term small-for-gestational-age neonates in clinical settings?

OBJECTIVE: To construct a simple term small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate prediction model that is clinically practical. METHODS: This analysis was based on the Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study (BIGCS). Mothers who had a singleton pregnancy, delivered a term neonate, and had an ultrasonography within 30 + 0 to 32 + 6 weeks of gestation were included. Term SGA was defined with customized population percentiles. Prediction models were constructed with backward selection logistic regression in a four-step approach, where model 1 contained fetal biometrics only, models 2 and 3 included maternal features and a time factor (weeks between ultrasonography and delivery), respectively; and model 4 contained all features mentioned. The prediction performance of individual models was evaluated based on area under the curve (AUC) and a calibration test was performed. RESULTS: The prevalence of SGA in the study population of 21 346 women was 11.5%. With a complete-case analysis approach, data of 19 954 women were used for model construction and validation. The AUC of the four models were 0.781, 0.793, 0.823, and 0.834, respectively, and all were well-calibrated. Model 3 consisted of fetal biometrics and corrected for time to delivery was chosen as the final model to build risk prediction graphs for clinical use. CONCLUSION: A prediction model derived from fetal biometrics in early third trimester is satisfactory to predict SGA.

Associations of Cord Blood Lipids with Childhood Adiposity at the Age of Three Years: A Prospective Birth Cohort Study.

We aimed to examine the associations between cord blood lipids and childhood adiposity and to investigate whether these associations vary across birth weight categories (small for gestational age (SGA), appropriate for gestational age (AGA) and large for gestational age (LGA)) in 1306 infants in the Born in Guangzhou Cohort Study, China. Adiposity outcomes at the age of three years included z-scores of weight-for-length/height (WFLZ), body mass index (BMIZ), subscapular (SSTZ) and triceps skinfold thickness (TSTZ), and the sum of skinfold thicknesses (SSFTZ). Cord blood triglycerides (TG) levels were negatively associated with WFLZ and BMIZ, whereas high density lipoprotein (HDL) levels were positively associated with WFLZ, BMIZ, TSTZ and SSFTZ. These associations were attenuated after adjustment for birth weight. Stratified analyses revealed that total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels were positively associated with childhood adiposity indicators among AGA infants but tended to be negatively associated with the adiposity indicators among LGA infants (p values for interaction <0.05). Furthermore, TG levels appeared to be positively associated with adiposity indicators among SGA infants but negatively associated with the outcomes among LGA infants (p values for interaction <0.05). Cord blood lipids levels might be associated with childhood adiposity, and these associations appear to differ across different birth weight categories. If confirmed in future studies, our findings suggest that individualized management plans might be warranted in preventing obesity.