Tracking the epidemiological trends of female breast cancer in Saudi Arabia since 1990 and forecasting future statistics using global burden of disease data, time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Female breast cancer stands as the prime type of cancer in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), with a high incidence and mortality rates. This study assessed the burden of female breast cancer in KSA by analyzing and forecasting its incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS: We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) about female breast cancer from 1990 to 2021. Time-series analysis used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast female breast cancer statistics from 2022 to 2026. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, KSA reported 77,513 cases of female breast cancer. The age groups with the highest number of cases are 45-49 years, followed by 40-44 years, 50-54 years, and 35-39 years. The analysis also showed fewer cases in the younger age groups, with the lowest number in the less than 20-year-old age group. From 1990 to 2021, KSA reported 19,440 deaths due to breast cancer, increasing from 201 cases in 1990 to 1,190 cases in 2021. The age-standardized incidence rate/100,000 of breast cancer increased from 15.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 11.2-21.0) in 1990 to 46.0 (95%CI 34.5-61.5) in 2021. The forecasted incidence rate of female breast cancer will be 46.5 (95%CI 45.8-46.5) in 2022 and 49.6 (95%CI 46.8-52.3) in 2026. The age-standardized death rate per 100,000 Saudi women with breast cancer increased from 6.73 (95%CI 6.73-9.03) in 1990 to 9.77 (95%CI 7.63-13.00) in 2021. The forecasted female breast cancer death rate will slightly decrease to 9.67 (95%CI 9.49-9.84) in 2022 and to 9.26 (95%CI 8.37-10.15) in 2026. DALYs increased from 229.2 (95%CI 165.7-313.6) in 1990 to 346.1 (95%CI 253.9-467.2) in 2021. The forecasted DALYs of female breast cancer will slightly decrease to 343.3 (95%CI 337.2-349.5) in 2022 reaching 332.1 (95%CI 301.2-363.1) in 2026. CONCLUSIONS: Female breast cancer is still a significant public health burden that challenges the health system in KSA, current policies and interventions should be fashioned to alleviate the disease morbidity and mortality and mitigate its future burden.

The Epidemiological Pattern of Skin Cancer from 2011 to 2022 among the Population of the Aseer Region, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

The overall risk of developing cancer before the age of 75 years in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is 9.9%. We aimed to explore the pattern of skin cancer, specifically among the Saudi population residing in the Aseer region. We obtained data from the medical records of Aseer Central Hospital regional histopathological laboratory considering surgical pathology reports from 2011 to 2021. The 61-80-year-old age group represented most of the cases (41.4%), followed by the 41-60-year-old group at 24.1%. Men made up the majority of the cases (59.4%). Furthermore, the dataset predominantly consisted of Saudi nationals (94.3% of the sample). The percentage of cases diagnosed each year relative to the cumulative number of skin cancer cases varied each year, ranging from 1.6% in 2011 to 11.6% in 2017. The most common diagnoses were squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) with 230 cases (41.1%) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) with 147 cases (26.3%). The majority of cases occurred in the head and neck region (55.4%), followed by the lower limb (16.6%), trunk (13.6%), upper limb (8.2%), and pelvis (2.3%). There was a significant variation in the type of skin cancer across the age groups (p < 0.001) and across different body parts (p < 0.001). The incidence of skin cancer exhibited variability throughout the study period. The predominant diagnoses observed were SSC and BCC. Among the affected areas, the head and neck region displayed the highest prevalence, followed by the lower limb, trunk, upper limb, and pelvis.