Care pathways in older patients seen in a multidisciplinary same day emergency care (SDEC) unit.

BACKGROUND: Same day emergency care (SDEC) services are being advocated in the UK for frail, older patients in whom hospitalisation may be associated with harm but there are few data on the 'ambulatory pathway'. We therefore determined the patient pathways pre- and post-first assessment in a SDEC unit focussed on older people. METHODS: In consecutive patients, we prospectively recorded follow-up SDEC service reviews (face-to-face, telephone, Hospital-at-Home domiciliary visits), outpatient referrals (e.g. to specialist clinics, imaging, and community/voluntary/social services), and hospital admissions <30 days. In the first 67 patients, we also recorded healthcare interactions (except GP attendances) in the 180 days pre- and post-first assessment. RESULTS: Among 533 patients (mean/SD age = 75.0/17.5 years, 246, 46% deemed frail) assessed in an SDEC unit, 210 were admitted within 30 days (152 immediately). In the 381(71%) remaining initially ambulatory, there were 587 SDEC follow-up reviews and 747 other outpatient referrals (mean = 3.5 per patient) with only 34 (9%) patients being discharged with no further follow-up. In the subset (n = 67), the number of 'healthcare days' was greater in the 180 days post- versus pre-SDEC assessment (mean/SD = 26/27 versus 13/22 days, P = 0.003) even after excluding hospital admission days, with greater healthcare days in frail versus non-frail patients. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: SDEC assessment in older, frail patients was associated with a 2-fold increase in frequency of healthcare interactions with complex care pathways involving multiple services. Our findings have implications for the development of admission-avoidance models including cost-effectiveness and optimal delivery of the multi-dimensional aspects of acute geriatric care in the ambulatory setting.

An integrated understanding of the impact of hospital at home: a mixed-methods study to articulate and test a programme theory.

BACKGROUND: Hospital at Home (HaH) provides intensive, hospital-level care in patients' homes for acute conditions that would normally require hospitalisation, using multidisciplinary teams. As a programme of complex medical-social interventions, a HaH programme theory has not been fully articulated although implicit in the structures, functions, and activities of the existing HaH services. We aimed to unearth the tacit theory from international evidence and test the soundness of it by studying UK HaH services. METHODS: We conducted a literature review (29 articles) adopting a 'realist review' approach (theory articulation) and examined 11 UK-based services by interviewing up to 3 staff members from each service (theory testing). The review and interview data were analysed using Framework Analysis and Purposive Text Analysis. RESULTS: The programme theory has three components- the organisational, utilisation and impact theories. The impact theory consists of key assumptions about the change processes brought about by HaH's activities and functions, as detailed in the organisational and utilisation theories. HaH teams should encompass multiple disciplines to deliver comprehensive assessments and have skill sets for physically delivering hospital-level processes of care in the home. They should aim to treat a broad range of conditions in patients who are clinically complex and felt to be vulnerable to hospital acquired harms. Services should cover 7 days a week, have plans for 24/7 response and deliver relational continuity of care through consistent staffing. As a result, patients' and carers' knowledge, skills, and confidence in disease management and self-care should be strengthened with a sense of safety during HaH treatment, and carers better supported to fulfil their role with minimal added care burden. CONCLUSIONS: There are organisational factors for HaH services and healthcare processes that contribute to better experience of care and outcomes for patients. HaH services should deliver care using hospital level processes through teams that have a focus on holistic and individually tailored care with continuity of therapeutic relationships between professionals and patients and carers resulting in less complexity and fragmentation of care. This analysis informs how HaH services can organise resources and design processes of care to optimise patient satisfaction and outcomes.

A multicentre observational study of the prevalence, management, and outcomes of subsegmental pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of subsegmental pulmonary embolism (SSPE) has increased with improvements in imaging technology. There is clinical equipoise for SSPE treatment, with conflicting evidence of improved mortality or reduced venous thromboembolism recurrence with anticoagulation. SSPE studies have significant heterogeneity and often lack adequately matched disease comparator groups. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence, management, and outcomes of SSPE and compare them to patients with main, lobar, segmental, and no pulmonary embolism (PE). PATIENTS/METHODS: All adult patients undergoing CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA) between 2013 and 2019, at 3 UK hospitals were included in the study. CTPA reports were text mined for language relating to PE, and then further manually screened for the presence and anatomical location of PE. Patient groups were propensity matched by age, sex, and year of CTPA prior to analysis. 3-month outcomes of major bleeding, VTE recurrence, and death were recorded. RESULTS: 79 (3.8%) SSPEs were identified from 2,055 diagnoses of PE, and 14,300 CTPA reports. 44 (56%) of SSPEs were single artery emboli, 25 (32%) were multiple unilateral emboli, and 10 (13%) were multiple bilateral emboli. Mortality, VTE recurrence and major bleeding were similar at 3 months across all groups. 87.3% of SSPE imaging reports had an additional radiological diagnosis, with pleural effusion (30%), consolidation (19%), and cardiomegaly (19%) being the most common. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of SSPE was 3.8% of all PEs and there were a substantial number of additional radiological findings in the SSPE group that may have accounted for their symptoms.

Acute care models for older people living with frailty: a systematic review and taxonomy.

BACKGROUND: The need to improve the acute care pathway to meet the care needs of older people living with frailty is a strategic priority for many healthcare systems. The optimal care model for this patient group is unclear. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted to derive a taxonomy of acute care models for older people with acute medical illness and describe the outcomes used to assess their effectiveness. Care models providing time-limited episodes of care (up to 14 days) within 48 h of presentation to patients over the age of 65 with acute medical illness were included. Care models based in hospital and community settings were eligible. Searches were undertaken in Medline, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane databases. Interventions were described and classified in detail using a modified version of the TIDIeR checklist for complex interventions. Outcomes were described and classified using the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) taxonomy. Risk of bias was assessed using RoB2 and ROBINS-I. RESULTS: The inclusion criteria were met by 103 articles. Four classes of acute care model were identified, acute-bed based care, hospital at home, emergency department in-reach and care home models. The field is dominated by small single centre randomised and non-randomised studies. Most studies were judged to be at risk of bias. A range of outcome measures were reported with little consistency between studies. Evidence of effectiveness was limited. CONCLUSION: Acute care models for older people living with frailty are heterogenous. The clinical effectiveness of these models cannot be conclusively established from the available evidence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration (CRD42021279131).

Organizational resilience in healthcare: a review and descriptive narrative synthesis of approaches to resilience measurement and assessment in empirical studies.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus pandemic has had a profound impact on organization and delivery of care. The challenges faced by healthcare organizations in dealing with the pandemic have intensified interest in the concept of resilience. While effort has gone into conceptualising resilience, there has been relatively little work on how to evaluate organizational resilience. This paper reports on an extensive review of approaches to resilience measurement and assessment in empirical healthcare studies, and examines their usefulness for researchers, policymakers and healthcare managers. METHODS: Various databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL (EBSCO host), Cochrane CENTRAL (Wiley), CDSR, Science Citation Index, and Social Science Citation Index) were searched from January 2000 to September 2021. We included quantitative, qualitative and modelling studies that focused on measuring or qualitatively assessing organizational resilience in a healthcare context. All studies were screened based on titles, abstracts and full text. For each approach, information on the format of measurement or assessment, method of data collection and analysis, and other relevant information were extracted. We classified the approaches to organizational resilience into five thematic areas of contrast: (1) type of shock; (2) stage of resilience; (3) included characteristics or indicators; (4) nature of output; and (5) purpose. The approaches were summarised narratively within these thematic areas. RESULTS: Thirty-five studies met the inclusion criteria. We identified a lack of consensus on how to evaluate organizational resilience in healthcare, what should be measured or assessed and when, and using what resilience characteristic and indicators. The measurement and assessment approaches varied in scope, format, content and purpose. Approaches varied in terms of whether they were prospective (resilience pre-shock) or retrospective (during or post-shock), and the extent to which they addressed a pre-defined and shock-specific set of characteristics and indicators. CONCLUSION: A range of approaches with differing characteristics and indicators has been developed to evaluate organizational resilience in healthcare, and may be of value to researchers, policymakers and healthcare managers. The choice of an approach to use in practice should be determined by the type of shock, the purpose of the evaluation, the intended use of results, and the availability of data and resources.

Practitioners' views on community implementation of point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) in the UK: a qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Implementing Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) in community practice could help to decide upon and prioritise initial treatment, procedures and appropriate specialist referral or conveyance to hospital. A recent literature review suggests that image quality, portability and cost of ultrasound devices are all improving with widening indications for community POCUS, but evidence about community POCUS use is needed in the UK. We aimed to explore views of clinical practitioners, actively using ultrasound, on their experiences of using POCUS and potential facilitators and barriers to its wider implementation in community settings in the UK. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative interview study with practitioners from community and secondary care settings actively using POCUS in practice. A convenience sample of eligible participants from different clinical specialties and settings was recruited using social media adverts, through websites of relevant research groups and snowball sampling. Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted online using Microsoft Teams. These were recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using a Framework approach supported by NVivo 12. RESULTS: We interviewed 16 practitioners aged between 40 and 62 years from different professional backgrounds, including paramedics, emergency physicians, general practitioners, and allied health professionals. Participants identified key considerations and facilitators for wider implementation of POCUS in community settings in the UK: resource requirements for deployment and support of working devices; sufficient time and a skilled workforce; attention to training, education and support needs; ensuring proper governance, guidelines and quality assurance; workforce considerations; enabling ease of use in assisting decision making with consideration of unintended consequences; and more robust evidence to support perceptions of improved patient outcomes and experience. CONCLUSIONS: POCUS could be useful for improving patient journey and health outcomes in community care, but this requires further research to evaluate outcomes. The facilitators identified could help make community POCUS a reality.

Rural versus metropolitan comparison of processes of care in the community-based management of TIA and minor stroke in Australia (an analysis from the INSIST study).

OBJECTIVES: To compare processes of care and clinical outcomes of community-based management of TIAs and minor strokes (TIAMS) between rural and metropolitan Australia. DESIGN: Inception cohort study between 2012 and 2016 with 12-month follow-up after index event (sub-study of INSIST). SETTING: Hunter and Manning valley regions of New South Wales, within the referral territory of the John Hunter Hospital Acute Neurovascular Clinic (JHHANC). PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive patients of 16 participating general practices, presenting with possible TIAMS to either primary or secondary care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Processes of care (referrals, key management processes, time-based metrics) and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Of 613 participants with possible TIAMS who completed the baseline interview, 298 were adjudicated as having TIAMS (119 from rural, 179 from metropolitan). Mean age was 72.3 years (SD, 10.7) and 127 (43%) were women. Rural participants were more likely to be managed solely by a general practitioner (GP) than metropolitan participants (34% v 20%) and less likely to be referred to a JHHANC specialist (13% v 38%) or have brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) [24% v 51%]. Those rural participants who were referred, also waited longer (both p < 0.001). Recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction and death at 12 months were not significantly different between rural and metropolitan participants. CONCLUSIONS: Although TIAMS prognosis in rural settings where solely GP care is common is very good, the processes of care in such areas are inferior to metropolitan. This suggests there is further scope to support rural GPs to optimise care of TIAMS patients.

Optimising a person-centred approach to stopping medicines in older people with multimorbidity and polypharmacy using the DExTruS framework: a realist review.

BACKGROUND: Tackling problematic polypharmacy requires tailoring the use of medicines to individual circumstances and may involve the process of deprescribing. Deprescribing can cause anxiety and concern for clinicians and patients. Tailoring medication decisions often entails beyond protocol decision-making, a complex process involving emotional and cognitive work for healthcare professionals and patients. We undertook realist review to highlight and understand the interactions between different factors involved in deprescribing and to develop a final programme theory that identifies and explains components of good practice that support a person-centred approach to deprescribing in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. METHODS: The realist approach involves identifying underlying causal mechanisms and exploring how, and under what conditions they work. We conducted a search of electronic databases which were supplemented by citation checking and consultation with stakeholders to identify other key documents. The review followed the key steps outlined by Pawson et al. and followed the RAMESES standards for realist syntheses. RESULTS: We included 119 included documents from which data were extracted to produce context-mechanism-outcome configurations (CMOCs) and a final programme theory. Our programme theory recognises that deprescribing is a complex intervention influenced by a multitude of factors. The components of our final programme theory include the following: a supportive infrastructure that provides clear guidance around professional responsibilities and that enables multidisciplinary working and continuity of care, consistent access to high-quality relevant patient contextual data, the need to support the creation of a shared explanation and understanding of the meaning and purpose of medicines and a trial and learn approach that provides space for monitoring and continuity. These components may support the development of trust which may be key to managing the uncertainty and in turn optimise outcomes. These components are summarised in the novel DExTruS framework. CONCLUSION: Our findings recognise the complex interpretive practice and decision-making involved in medication management and identify key components needed to support best practice. Our findings have implications for how we design medication review consultations, professional training and for patient records/data management. Our review also highlights the role that trust plays both as a central element of tailored prescribing and a potential outcome of good practice in this area.

Hospital at home for acute medical illness: The 21st century acute medical unit for a changing population.

Recent trends across Europe show a year-on-year increase in the number of patients with acute medical illnesses presenting to hospitals, yet there are no plans for a substantial expansion in acute hospital infrastructure or staffing to address demand. Strategies to meet increasing demand need to consider the fact that there is limited capacity in acute hospitals and focus on new care models in both hospital and community settings. Increasing the efficiency of acute hospital provision by reducing the length of stay entails supporting acute ambulatory care, where patients receive daily acute care interventions but do not stay overnight in the hospitals. This approach may entail daily transfer between home and an acute setting for ongoing treatment, which is unsuitable for some patients living with frailty. Acute hospital at home (HaH) is a care model which, thanks to advances in point of care diagnostic capability, can provide a credible model of acute medical assessment and treatment without the need for hospital transfer. Investment and training to support scaling up of HaH are key strategic aims for integrated healthcare systems.

Frailty assessment and acute frailty service provision in the UK: results of a national 'day of care' survey.

BACKGROUND: The incorporation of acute frailty services into the acute care pathway is increasingly common. The prevalence and impact of acute frailty services in the UK are currently unclear. METHODS: The Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit (SAMBA) is a day of care survey undertaken annually within the UK. SAMBA 2019 (SAMBA19) took place on Thursday 27th June 2019. A questionnaire was used to collect hospital and patient-level data on the structure and organisation of acute care delivery. SAMBA19 sought to establish the frequency of frailty assessment tool use and describe acute frailty services nationally. Hospitals were classified based on the presence of acute frailty services and metrics of performance compared. RESULTS: A total of 3218 patients aged ≥70 admitted to 129 hospitals were recorded in SAMBA19. The use of frailty assessment tools was reported in 80 (62.0%) hospitals. The proportion of patients assessed for the presence of frailty in individual hospitals ranged from 2.2 to 100%. Bedded Acute Frailty Units were reported in 65 (50.3%) hospitals. There was significant variation in admission rates between hospitals. This was not explained by the presence of a frailty screening policy or presence of a dedicated frailty unit. CONCLUSION: Two fifths of participating UK hospitals did not have a routine frailty screening policy: where this existed, rates of assessment for frailty were variable and most at-risk patients were not assessed. Responses to positive results were poorly defined. The provision of acute frailty services is variable throughout the UK. Improvement is needed for the aspirations of national policy to be fully realised.

Response to winter pressures in acute services: analysis from the Winter Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit.

BACKGROUND: There is increased demand for urgent and acute services during the winter months, placing pressure on acute medicine services caring for emergency medical admissions. Hospital services adopt measures aiming to compensate for the effects of this increased pressure. This study aimed to describe the measures adopted by acute medicine services to address service pressures during winter. METHODS: A survey of acute hospitals was conducted during the Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit, a national day-of-care audit, on 30th January 2020. Survey questions were derived from national guidance. Acute medicine services at 93 hospitals in the United Kingdom completed the survey, evaluating service measures implemented to mitigate increased demand, as well as markers of increased pressure on services. RESULTS: All acute internal medicine services had undertaken measures to prepare for increased demand, however there was marked variation in the combination of measures adopted. 81.7% of hospitals had expanded the number of medical inpatient beds available. 80.4% had added extra clinical staff. The specialty of the physicians assigned to provide care for extra inpatient beds varied. A quarter of units had reduced beds available for providing Same Day Emergency Care on the day of the survey. Patients had been waiting in corridors within the emergency medicine department in 56.3% of units. CONCLUSION: Winter pressure places considerable demand on acute services, and impacts the delivery of care. Although increased pressure on acute hospital services during winter is widely recognised, there is considerable variation in the approach to planning for these periods of increased demand.

Nurse staffing levels within acute care: results of a national day of care survey.

INTRODUCTION: The relationship between nurse staffing levels and patient safety is well recognised. Inadequate provision of nursing staff is associated with increased medical error, as well as higher morbidity and mortality. Defining what constitutes safe nurse staffing levels is complex. A range of guidance and planning tools are available to inform staffing decisions. The Society for Acute Medicine (SAM) recommend a 'nurse-to-bed'ratio of greater than 1:6. Whether this standard accurately reflects the pattern and intensity of work on the Acute Medical Unit (AMU) is unclear. METHODS: Nurse staffing levels in AMUs were explored using the Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit 2019 (SAMBA19). Data from 122 acute hospitals were analysed. Nurse-to-bed ratios were calculated and compared. Estimates of the total nursing time available within the acute care system were compared to estimates of the time required to perform nursing activities. RESULTS: The total number of AMU beds across all 122 units was 4997. The mean daytime nurse-to-bed ratio was 1:4.3 and the mean night time nurse-to-bed ratio was 1:5.2. The SAM standard of a nurse to bed ratio of greater than 1:6 was achieved in 99 units (81.9%) during daytime hours and achieved by 74 units (60.6%) at night. The estimated time required to deliver direct clinical care was 35,698 h. A deficit of 4128 h (11.5% of time required) was estimated, representing the time difference between the total number of nursing hours available with current staffing and the estimated time needed for direct clinical care across all participating units. CONCLUSION: This UK-wide study suggests a significant proportion of AMUs do not meet the recommenced SAM staffing levels, particularly at night. A difference was observed between the total number of nursing hours within the acute care system and the estimated time required to perform direct nursing activities. This suggests a workforce shortage of nurses within acute care at the system level.

NEWS2 to assess suspected COVID-19 in the community: a service evaluation of a primary care assessment centre.

BACKGROUND: Primary care has played a central role in the community response to the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic. The use of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) has been advocated as a tool to guide escalation decisions in the community. The performance of this tool applied in this context is unclear. AIM: To evaluate the process of escalation of care to the hospital within a primary care assessment centre (PCAC) designed to assess patients with suspected COVID-19 in the community. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective service evaluation of all adult patients assessed between 30 March and 22 April 2020 within a COVID-19 primary care assessment centre within Sandwell West Birmingham CCG. METHOD: A database of patient demographics, healthcare interactions and physiological observations was constructed. NEWS2 and CRB65 scores were calculated retrospectively. The proportion of patients escalated was within risk groups defined by NHSE guidelines in place during the evaluation period was determined. RESULTS: A total of 150 patients were identified. Following assessment 13.3% (n = 20) patients were deemed to require escalation. The proportion of patients escalated with a NEWS2 greater than or equal to 3 was 46.9% (95% CI 30.8-63.6%). The proportion of patients escalated to secondary care using NHSE defined risk thresholds was 0% in the green group, 22% (n = 4) in the amber group, and 81.3% (n = 13) in the red group. CONCLUSION: Clinical decisions to escalate care to the hospital did not follow initial guidance written for the COVID-19 outbreak but were demonstrated to be safe.

In most cases, coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is a mild illness that resolves on its own. Some patients develop severe disease requiring hospital treatment. Identifying which patients are likely to need hospital treatment is a challenge. Many GP practices have developed specific services designed to assess patients with suspected COVID-19 and establish whether hospital treatment is necessary. We evaluated a service providing this function in Birmingham. We examined the care pathway of 150 patients assessed within the service to established factors associated with the need for hospital assessment. We found a national decision tool designed to aid the process was a poor descriptor of what happened in practice.

Factors associated with admission to bed-based care: observational prospective cohort study in a multidisciplinary same day emergency care unit (SDEC).

BACKGROUND: The development of ambulatory emergency care services, now called 'Same Day Emergency Care' (SDEC) has been advocated to provide sustainable high quality healthcare in an ageing population. However, there are few data on SDEC and the factors associated with successful ambulatory care in frail older people. We therefore undertook a prospective observational study to determine i) the clinical characteristics and frailty burden of a cohort in an SDEC designed around the needs of older patients and ii) the factors associated with hospital admission within 30-days after initial assessment. METHODS: The study setting was the multidisciplinary Abingdon Emergency Medical Unit (EMU) located in a community hospital and led by a senior interface physician (geriatrician or general practitioner). Consecutive patients from August-December 2015 were assessed using a structured paper proforma including cognitive/delirium screen, comorbidities, functional, social, and nutritional status. Physiologic parameters were recorded. Illness severity was quantified using the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS> 1). Factors associated with hospitalization within 30-days were determined using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 533 patients (median (IQR) age = 81 (68-87), 315 (59%) female), 453 (86%) were living at home but 283 (54%) required some form of care and 299 (56%) had Barthel< 20. Falls, urinary incontinence and dementia affected 81/189 (43%), 50 (26%) and 40 (21%) of those aged > 85 years." Severe illness was present in 148 (28%) with broadly similar rates across age groups. Overall, 210 (39%) patients had a hospital admission within 30-days with higher rates in older patients: 96 (87%) of < 65 years remained on an ambulatory pathway versus only 91 (48%) of ≥ 85 years (p < 0.0001). Factors independently associated with hospital admission were severe illness (SIRS/point, OR = 1.46,95% CI = 1.15-1.87, p = 0.002) and markers of frailty: delirium (OR = 11.28,3.07-41.44, p < 0.0001), increased care needs (OR = 3.08,1.55-6.12, p = 0.001), transport requirement (OR = 1.92,1.13-3.27), and poor nutrition (OR = 1.13-3.79, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Even in an SDEC with a multidisciplinary approach, rates of hospital admission in those with severe illness and frailty were high. Further studies are required to understand the key components of hospital bed-based care that need to be replicated by models delivering acute frailty care closer to home, and the feasibility, cost-effectiveness and patient/carer acceptability of such models.

Where should patients with or at risk of delirium be treated in an acute care system? Comparing the rates of delirium in patients receiving usual care vs alternative care: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Delirium is an acute condition that occurs in hospitalised patients and leads to poor patient outcomes that can last long term. Therefore, the importance of prevention is undeniable and adopting new models of care for at-risk patients should be prioritised. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review and meta-analysis will assess the effectiveness of different interventions designed to prevent or manage delirium in acutely unwell hospitalised patients. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, OpenGrey, Web of Science and reference lists of journals were searched. Eligible studies reported on incidence or duration of delirium, used a validated delirium diagnostic tool and compared an intervention to either a control or another intervention group. Meta-analyses were conducted, and GRADEpro software was used to assess the certainty of evidence. This review is registered on PROSPERO. RESULTS: A total of 59 studies were included and 33 were eligible for meta-analysis. Delirium incidence was most significantly reduced by non-pharmacological multicomponent interventions compared with usual care, with pooled risk ratios of 0.57 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.73, 10 randomised controlled trials) and 0.47 (95% CI: 0.35 to 0.64, six observational studies). Single-component interventions did not significantly reduce delirium incidence compared with usual care in seven randomised trials (risk ratio = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.81 to 1.04). The most effective single-component intervention in reducing delirium incidence was a hospital-at-home intervention (risk ratio = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Non-pharmacological multicomponent interventions are effective in preventing delirium; however, the same cannot be said for other interventions because of uncertain results. There is some evidence that providing multicomponent interventions in patients' homes is more effective than in a hospital setting. Therefore, researching the benefits of hospital-at-home interventions in delirium prevention is recommended.

The provision of hospital at home care: Results of a national survey of UK hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Hospital at home (HaH) replicates elements of hospital-based care in the community, to facilitate the safe management of a broad spectrum of acute illness in the patient's usual environment. The extent to which this model of care has been adopted in the United Kingdom is unknown. METHODS: The Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit is a day of care survey undertaken annually within the United Kingdom. Participation is open to all hospital in the United Kingdom receiving acutely unwell medical patients. A questionnaire is used to collect hospital-level data on the structure and organisation of acute care delivery. The survey included questions designed to quantify the number of hospitals that offered HaH. When present, further questions were asked to clarify the characteristics of the HaH service in terms of workforce, range of diagnostic test and interventions. This information was used to build a picture of HaH service provision on a national scale. RESULTS: A total of 130 hospitals contributed organisational data to SAMBA19. The capability to refer to a hospital at home service was recognised by 46.9% (n = 61) of units. The majority of these services, 83.3% (n = 50) were nurse-led. The capability to provide a physician review at home was reported in 23.3% (n = 14). The majority of services could provide intravenous antibiotics at home, but access to other simple interventions, such as intravenous diuretics or acute supplemental oxygen, is limited. CONCLUSION: At present, few acute hospitals for consitency in the United Kingdom have access to a hospital at home service capable of replicating essential elements of inpatient care. Our study suggests organisational change in acute care delivery and significant investment would be required to establish equal access to hospital-at-home care within the United Kingdom.

Variation in referral rates to emergency departments and inpatient services from a GP out of hours service and the potential impact of alternative staffing models.

INTRODUCTION: Out of hours (OOHs) primary care is a critical component of the acute care system overnight and at weekends. Referrals from OOH services to hospital will add to the burden on hospital assessment in the ED and on-call specialties. METHODS: We studied the variation in referral rates (to the ED and direct specialty admission) of individual clinicians working in the Oxfordshire, UK OOH service covering a population of 600 000 people. We calculated the referral probability for each clinician over a 13-month period of practice (1 December 2014 to 31 December 2015), stratifying by clinician factors and location and timing of assessment. We used Simul8 software to determine the range of hospital referrals potentially due to variation in clinician referral propensity. RESULTS: Among the 119 835 contacts with the service, 5261 (4.4%) were sent directly to the ED and 3474 (3.7%) were admitted directly to specialties. More referrals were made to ED by primary care physicians if they did not work in the local practices (5.5% vs 3.5%, p=0.011). For clinicians with >1000 consultations, percentage of patients referred varied from 1% to 21% of consultations. Simulations where propensity to refer was made less extreme showed a difference in maximum referrals of 50 patients each week. CONCLUSIONS: There is substantial variation in clinician referral rates from OOHs primary care to the acute hospital setting. The number of patients referred could be influenced by this variation in clinician behaviour. Referral propensity should be studied including casemix adjustment to determine if interventions targeting such behaviour are effective.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency department attendances and acute medical admissions.

BACKGROUND: To better understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital healthcare, we studied activity in the emergency department (ED) and acute medicine department of a major UK hospital. METHODS: Electronic patient records for all adult patients attending ED (n = 243,667) or acute medicine (n = 82,899) during the pandemic (2020-2021) and prior year (2019) were analysed and compared. We studied parameters including severity, primary diagnoses, co-morbidity, admission rate, length of stay, bed occupancy, and mortality, with a focus on non-COVID-19 diseases. RESULTS: During the first wave of the pandemic, daily ED attendance fell by 37%, medical admissions by 30% and medical bed occupancy by 27%, but all returned to normal within a year. ED attendances and medical admissions fell across all age ranges; the greatest reductions were seen for younger adults in ED attendances, but in older adults for medical admissions. Compared to non-COVID-19 pandemic admissions, COVID-19 admissions were enriched for minority ethnic groups, for dementia, obesity and diabetes, but had lower rates of malignancy. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, non-COVID-19 pandemic admissions had more hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, liver disease, and obesity. There were fewer low severity ED attendances during the pandemic and fewer medical admissions across all severity categories. There were fewer ED attendances with common non-respiratory illnesses including cardiac diagnoses, but no change in cardiac arrests. COVID-19 was the commonest diagnosis amongst medical admissions during the first wave and there were fewer diagnoses of pneumonia, myocardial infarction, heart failure, cellulitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, urinary tract infection and other sepsis, but not stroke. Levels had rebounded by a year later with a trend to higher levels of stroke than before the pandemic. During the pandemic first wave, 7-day mortality was increased for ED attendances, but not for non-COVID-19 medical admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced ED attendances in the first wave of the pandemic suggest opportunities for reducing low severity presentations to ED in the future, but also raise the possibility of harm from delayed or missed care. Reassuringly, recent rises in attendance and admissions indicate that any deterrent effect of the pandemic on attendance is diminishing.

Long-term health outcomes of people with reduced kidney function in the UK: A modelling study using population health data.

BACKGROUND: People with reduced kidney function have increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We present a policy model that simulates individuals' long-term health outcomes and costs to inform strategies to reduce risks of kidney and CVDs in this population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a United Kingdom primary healthcare database, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), linked with secondary healthcare and mortality data, to derive an open 2005-2013 cohort of adults (≥18 years of age) with reduced kidney function (≥2 measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <90 mL/min/1.73 m2 ≥90 days apart). Data on individuals' sociodemographic and clinical characteristics at entry and outcomes (first occurrences of stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and hospitalisation for heart failure; annual kidney disease stages; and cardiovascular and nonvascular deaths) during follow-up were extracted. The cohort was used to estimate risk equations for outcomes and develop a chronic kidney disease-cardiovascular disease (CKD-CVD) health outcomes model, a Markov state transition model simulating individuals' long-term outcomes, healthcare costs, and quality of life based on their characteristics at entry. Model-simulated cumulative risks of outcomes were compared with respective observed risks using a split-sample approach. To illustrate model value, we assess the benefits of partial (i.e., at 2013 levels) and optimal (i.e., fully compliant with clinical guidelines in 2019) use of cardioprotective medications. The cohort included 1.1 million individuals with reduced kidney function (median follow-up 4.9 years, 45% men, 19% with CVD, and 74% with only mildly decreased eGFR of 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 at entry). Age, kidney function status, and CVD events were the key determinants of subsequent morbidity and mortality. The model-simulated cumulative disease risks corresponded well to observed risks in participant categories by eGFR level. Without the use of cardioprotective medications, for 60- to 69-year-old individuals with mildly decreased eGFR (60-89 mL/min/1.73 m2), the model projected a further 22.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 21.8-22.3) years of life if without previous CVD and 18.6 (18.2-18.9) years if with CVD. Cardioprotective medication use at 2013 levels (29%-44% of indicated individuals without CVD; 64%-76% of those with CVD) was projected to increase their life expectancy by 0.19 (0.14-0.23) and 0.90 (0.50-1.21) years, respectively. At optimal cardioprotective medication use, the projected health gains in these individuals increased by further 0.33 (0.25-0.40) and 0.37 (0.20-0.50) years, respectively. Limitations include risk factor measurements from the UK routine primary care database and limited albuminuria measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The CKD-CVD policy model is a novel resource for projecting long-term health outcomes and assessing treatment strategies in people with reduced kidney function. The model indicates clear survival benefits with cardioprotective treatments in this population and scope for further benefits if use of these treatments is optimised.

What are physiotherapists and occupational therapists doing in services that replace acute hospital admission? A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Alternatives to acute hospital admission are required to accommodate the increasing pressures on health services. Since physiotherapists and occupational therapists are integral to inpatient teams, they may also be integral to admission replacement services, and thus their roles in these services merit investigation. AIMS: Primarily to determine the presence and roles of physiotherapists and occupational therapists in services replacing acute hospital admission. The secondary outcome is to determine the impact of therapists in such services. METHODS: Five electronic databases were searched, with keywords related to therapy, discharge, and admission replacement. Inclusion criteria were that studies explicitly described at least one therapist role within a service replacing acute hospital admissions. Two authors independently reviewed all potentially eligible studies. Two reviewers independently assessed data extracted from included studies into a standardized data extraction form. RESULTS: Fifteen studies (3 Hospital at Home, 12 Early Supported Discharge) were included. Both clinical (eg, exercise prescription) and non-clinical (eg, organization and study outcome assessments) therapist roles were described in different admission substitution services. Some roles were only reported among teams, not individually ascribed to therapists. CONCLUSIONS: The roles of therapists in services that replace hospital admission are rarely described in detail, with wide variation in reported roles, including across service types and patient populations. This review could not determine the impact of individual therapists on patient or service-level outcomes. Future studies need to more clearly define therapist roles and impact.