Global incidence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 63 studies and 1,201,807 persons.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing. We aimed to estimate the pooled global NAFLD incidence. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of adults without NAFLD at baseline to evaluate the global incidence of ultrasound-diagnosed NAFLD. RESULTS: A total of 63 eligible studies (1,201,807 persons) were analyzed. Studies were from Mainland China/Hong Kong (n = 26), South Korea (n = 22), Japan (n = 14), other (n = 2, Sri Lanka, Israel); 63.8% were clinical center studies; median study year 2000 to 2016; 87% were good quality. Among the 1,201,807 persons at risk, 242,568 persons developed NAFLD, with an incidence rate of 4,612.8 (95% CI 3,931.5-5,294.2) per 100,000 person-years and no statistically significant differences by study sample size (p = 0.90) or study setting (p = 0.055). Males had higher incidence vs. females (5,943.8 vs. 3,671.7, p = 0.0013). Both the obese (vs. non-obese) and the overweight/obese groups (vs. normal weight) were about threefold more likely to develop NAFLD (8,669.6 vs. 2,963.9 and 8,416.6 vs. 3,358.2, respectively) (both p <0.0001). Smokers had higher incidence than non-smokers (8,043.2 vs. 4,689.7, p = 0.046). By meta-regression, adjusting for study year, study setting, and study location, study period of 2010 or after and study setting were associated with increased incidence (p = 0.010 and p = 0.055, respectively). By country, China had a higher NAFLD incidence compared to non-China regions (p = 0.012) and Japan a lower incidence compared to non-Japan regions (p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD incidence is increasing with a current estimate of 4,613 new cases per 100,000 person-years. Males and overweight/obese individuals had significantly higher incidence rates compared to females and those of normal weight. Public health interventions for prevention of NAFLD are needed with a special emphasis on males, overweight/obese individuals, and higher risk regions. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects approximately 30% of people worldwide and appears to be increasing, but data to estimate the incidence rate are limited. In this meta-analytic study of over 1.2 million people, we estimated an incidence rate of NAFLD of 46.13 per 1,000 person-years with significant differences by sex, BMI, geography, and time-period. As treatment options for NAFLD remain limited, prevention of NAFLD should remain the focus of public health strategies. Studies such as these can help policy makers in determining which and whether their interventions are impactful.

Global treatment rate and barriers to direct-acting antiviral therapy: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 146 studies and 1 760 352 hepatitis C virus patients.

BACKGROUND: Global data on the treatment rate with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) are sparse. We aimed to evaluate the CHC treatment rate and barriers to treatment in the DAA era. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane from inception to 5 August 2021, for relevant articles. Patients treated with DAAs without interferon (IFN) therapy were categorized as IFN-free DAAs. Patients receiving DAA with IFN or unclear IFN status were categorized as DAA/IFN. RESULTS: We identified and analysed data from 146 studies (1 760 352 CHC patients). DAA/IFN treatment rate was 16.0% (95% CI: 9.9-23.3, 49 studies, 886 535 patients). IFN-free DAA treatment rate was 52.3% (95% CI: 46.2-58.4, 123 studies, 1 276 754 patients): 45.4% in North America, 64.2% in South America (1 study), 90.4% in Africa (most data from Egypt), 54.4% in Europe, 60.7% in Australia and 60.5% in Asia, (p < .0001); 49% with hepatitis B co-infection and 32.3% with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Treatment was not a priority in 22.8% of patients in Europe and 16.7% in Australia, compared to only 4.8% in North America and 2.1% in Asia (p < .0001). Poor adherence to clinical follow-up was the cause of no treatment in 74.7% of patients in Australia, 37.0% in North America, 7.9% in Europe and 14.3% in Asia (p < .0001). CONCLUSION: Though a marked improvement from IFN/DAA, the treatment rate with IFN-free DAA remains suboptimal (52.3% overall, 32.3% in HCC patients). Non-adherence to clinical follow-up and lack of disease awareness were treatment barriers.

Transient Elastography and Serum-Based Tests for Diagnosis of Fatty Liver and Advanced Fibrosis in a Community Cohort: A Cross-Sectional Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive tests (NITs) are necessary for knowing the true prevalence of fatty liver (FL) and advanced fibrosis. NITs for diagnosis of FL and fibrosis were compared. METHODS: Data were obtained from the National Health and Examination Survey (2017-2018). Participants were excluded with other liver diseases, missing data for NIT calculation, and/or excessive alcohol use. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) compared the accuracy of 4 FL NITs (CAP, HSI, FLI, USFLI) among themselves and to CAP value of 285 dB/m and 5 fibrosis NITs (transient elastography, APRI, NFS, FIB-4, HEPAmet) among themselves and to LSM ≥8.7 kPa. RESULTS: Among 2,051 participants (average age 47 (±17.7), 48% males, 62% white, 73% overweight/obese, 39% metabolic syndrome), demographics were similar among NIT groups (CAP = 812; HSI = 1,234; FLI = 935; USFLI-824). FL prevalence by NIT: 39% CAP, 58% HSI, 47% FLI, 37% USFLI. Advanced fibrosis prevalence by test: LSM (≥8.7 kPa) 10-14%; FIB-4 (≥2.67) and APRI (≥0.7) 1.3-2.7%; HEPAmet (>0.47) 14-21%. Compared to CAP ≥285, FLI (AUROC = 0.823) and USFLI (AUROC = 0.833) performed better than HSI (AUROC: 0.798). Compared to LSM ≥8.7 kPa, only NFS (AUROC = 0.722) performed well (FIB-4 AUROC = 0.606; APRI = 0.647; HEPAmet = 0.629). Among the CAP cohort, the strongest FL predictor was obesity (OR: 15.2, 95% CI: 7.97-28.9, p < 0.001); the only fibrosis predictor was elevated AST (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.00-1.12, p = 0.04). The addition of CAP or LSM as a second NIT reduced the number of indeterminate patients especially for FL. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of diagnostic method in 2017-2018, the prevalence of NAFLD was >35%. NITs for FL performed well but not for advanced fibrosis. CAP and LSM as a second NIT reduced those considered indeterminate.

Liver Complications in Untreated Treatment-Ineligible versus Treated Treatment-Eligible Patients with Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: A substantial number of patients who do not meet treatment criteria for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) later develop adverse outcomes such as cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aim was to determine whether current practice guidelines adequately identify CHB patients who will benefit from antiviral therapy. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study comparing the incidence of adverse liver outcomes (cirrhosis and/or HCC) in untreated treatment-ineligible (at baseline and throughout follow-up) versus treated treatment-eligible patients according to standard American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) 2018 guidance (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] >70/50 U/L for men/women plus hepatitis B virus [HBV] DNA >20,000/2,000 IU/mL for HBeAg+/-) and with a sensitivity analyses using a lower threshold (ALT >40 U/L and HBV DNA >2,000 IU/mL). RESULTS: We reviewed records of 5,840 patients from 5 clinics in California and identified 2,987 treatment-naive non-HCC CHB patients. Of those, 271 patients remained untreated treatment-ineligible, 514 patients were treatment-eligible and initiated treatment, with 5-year cumulative adverse liver incidences of 12.5% versus 7.2%, p = 0.074. On multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, albumin, platelet count, and HBV DNA, compared to treated treatment-eligible patients, untreated treatment-ineligible patients had a significantly higher risk of adverse liver outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.38, 95% confidence interval 1.03-5.48, p = 0.04) in main analysis by AASLD 2018 criteria but not in sensitivity analysis using the lower treatment threshold (p = 0.09). CONCLUSION: Patients never meeting standard AASLD 2018 criteria for antiviral therapy and never treated had twice the risk of developing cirrhosis and/or HCC when compared to eligible and treated patients.

Natural History and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients With Indeterminate Phase.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Many patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) may not conform to any of the defined phases and hence are classified as indeterminate. We aimed to characterize the baseline prevalence of indeterminate patients and their natural history, phase transition, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 3366 adult untreated noncirrhotic CHB patients seen at 5 US clinics and 7 Taiwanese townships who had at least 1 year of serial laboratory data before enrollment with a mean follow-up period of 12.5 years. Patients' clinical phases were determined at baseline and through serial data during follow-up evaluation, based on the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases 2018 guidance. RESULTS: At baseline, 1303 (38.7%) patients were in the indeterminate phase. By up to year 10 of follow-up evaluation, 686 patients (52.7%) remained indeterminate, while 283 patients (21.7%) became immune active. Compared with patients who remained inactive, patients who remained indeterminate had a higher 10-year cumulative HCC incidence (4.6% vs 0.5%; P < .0001) and adjusted hazard ratio for HCC of 14.1 (P = .03). Among patients who remained indeterminate, age 45 years and older (adjusted hazard ratio, 18.4; P = .005) was associated independently with HCC development. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 40% of patients had indeterminate CHB phase. Of these, half remained indeterminate and one-fifth transitioned to the immune active phase. HCC risk in persistently indeterminate CHB was 14 times higher than inactive CHB. Among persistently indeterminate CHB patients, age 45 years and older was associated with an 18 times higher risk for HCC development. Further studies are needed to evaluate the potential benefit of antiviral therapy for indeterminate patients, especially in the older subgroup.

2019 Global NAFLD Prevalence: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The increasing rates of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus may lead to increased prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to determine the current and recent trends on the global and regional prevalence of NAFLD. METHODS: Systematic search from inception to March 26, 2020 was performed without language restrictions. Two authors independently performed screening and data extraction. We performed meta-regression to determine trends in NAFLD prevalence. RESULTS: We identified 17,244 articles from literature search and included 245 eligible studies involving 5,399,254 individuals. The pooled global prevalence of NAFLD was 29.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 28.6%-31.1%); of these, 82.5% of included articles used ultrasound to diagnose NAFLD, with prevalence of 30.6% (95% CI, 29.2%-32.0%). South America (3 studies, 5716 individuals) and North America (4 studies, 18,236 individuals) had the highest NAFLD prevalence at 35.7% (95% CI, 34.0%-37.5%) and 35.3% (95% CI, 25.4%-45.9%), respectively. From 1991 to 2019, trend analysis showed NAFLD increased from 21.9% to 37.3% (yearly increase of 0.7%, P < .0001), with South America showing the most rapid change of 2.7% per year, followed by Europe at 1.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Despite regional variation, the global prevalence of NAFLD is increasing overall. Policy makers must work toward reversing the current trends by increasing awareness of NAFLD and promoting healthy lifestyle environments.

Association Between Fatty Liver and Cirrhosis, Hepatocellular Carcinoma, and Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Seroclearance in Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and fatty liver (FL) are common, natural history data on concurrent FL and CHB (FL-CHB) are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of FL on cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance incidence in CHB patients. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study of 6786 adult CHB patients, we used propensity score matching (PSM) to balance the FL-CHB and non-FL CHB groups. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to compare cumulative cirrhosis, HCC, and HBsAg seroclearance rates between subgroups. RESULTS: Before PSM, compared to non-FL CHB, FL-CHB patients had lower 10-year cumulative rates of cirrhosis, HCC, and a higher HBsAg seroclearance rate. Similar results were found in the matched FL-CHB and non-FL CHB patients, as well as in the antiviral-treated PSM cohort. Cox proportional hazards model indicated FL to remain significantly and strongly associated with lower risk of cirrhosis and HCC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.19 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .12-.33], P < .001 and HR, 0.21 [95% CI, .09-.51], P = .001, respectively) in antiviral-treated patients but not in untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: FL was significantly associated with lower cirrhosis and HCC risk and higher HBsAg seroclearance. Further studies are needed to confirm our funding and investigate the mechanisms underlying the impact of FL on CHB.

Differential Clinical Characteristics and Mortality Outcomes in Persons With NAFLD and/or MAFLD.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) establishes new criteria for diagnosing fatty liver disease independent of alcohol intake and concomitant viral hepatitis infection. However, the long-term outcomes of patients with MAFLD are sparse. We aimed to describe the characteristics and long-term survival of persons meeting criteria for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) only (non-MAFLD NAFLD), for both NAFLD and MAFLD (NAFLD-MAFLD), and for MAFLD only (non-NAFLD MAFLD). METHODS: Using data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) 1988-1994, 2997 participants with fatty liver identified via ultrasound were categorized into 3 distinct groups: non-MAFLD NAFLD, NAFLD-MAFLD, and non-NAFLD MAFLD. RESULTS: Participants in the NAFLD-MAFLD and non-NAFLD MAFLD groups were older, had more metabolic traits and higher mean liver enzymes. Nearly 8% of participants in the non-NAFLD MAFLD group had advanced fibrosis (Fibrosis-4 index >2.67), while only 1.3% and 1.9% in the NAFLD-MAFLD and non-MAFLD NAFLD groups did, respectively (P < .0001). Non-NAFLD MAFLD participants had the highest cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality (26.2%) followed by those with NAFLD-MAFLD then non-MAFLD NAFLD participants (21.1% and 10.6%, respectively; P < .0001). Similar findings were observed for cardiovascular disease-related and other-cause (noncardiovascular disease, noncancer) mortality. Non-NAFLD MAFLD was independently associated with all-cause mortality compared with non-MAFLD NAFLD (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-4.6; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD criteria identified a significant group of people with more comorbidities and worse prognosis compared with those with NAFLD only. These criteria should be considered in the general population to identify high-risk groups for early interventions.

The Changing Epidemiology of Liver Disease Among US Children and Adolescents From 1999 to 2016.

INTRODUCTION: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) are major causes of liver disease in adults. However, data for children and adolescents are limited. Our study aimed to characterize the prevalence, trend, and risk factors of infection of HBV and HCV and possible NAFLD for this population. METHODS: We analyzed 6,647 children and adolescents (aged 6-21 years) from the 1999-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. RESULTS: Among individuals aged 6-21 years, HBV prevalence decreased after 2011, from 0.72% in 1999-2004 and 0.85% in 2005-2010 to 0.27% in 2011-2016 (P < 0.001), whereas HCV prevalence increased to 0.26% in 2011-2016 after an initial decline from 0.15% in 1999-2004 to 0.02% in 2005-2010 (P = 0.01). Possible NAFLD prevalence also increased by approximately 40% in individuals aged 12-21 years, from 8.54% in 1999-2004 to 10.1% in 2005-2010 and then 11.8% in 2011-2016 (P = 0.033), with most possible NAFLD individuals being male, being obese, or having higher glucose, fasting insulin, hemoglobin A1c, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, liver enzymes, lipids, and uric acid (all P < 0.01). On multivariate logistic regression, hypertension (odds ratio 4.79, 95% confidence interval 1.44-15.9) and dyslipidemia (odds ratio 11.6, 95% confidence interval 5.65-23.9) increased risk for possible NAFLD but not income:poverty ratio, hours spent on computer use, or added sugars. DISCUSSION: Although HBV prevalence has decreased in recent years among US children and adolescents, HCV and possible NAFLD have increased. Public health efforts must seek further understanding of the driving factors of this increase so that age-appropriate interventions can be developed and implemented.

Chronic Hepatitis B Prevalence Among Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born Adults in the United States, 1999-2016.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a major global health problem, exacerbated by poor linkage to care. We aimed to determine the prevalence of HBV infection, exposure, self-reported vaccination, vaccine-induced immunity, disease awareness, and treatment in the United States by birthplace and race/ethnicity during 1999-2016. A total of 47,628 adult participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey who completed HBV core antibody (anti-HBc) and surface antigen (HBsAg) tests and 47,618 adults who completed HBV surface antibody (anti-HBs) and anti-HBc tests were included in the analysis. HBV infection was defined by positive HBsAg and past exposure by positive anti-HBc. Vaccine-mediated immunity was defined by positive anti-HBs and negative anti-HBc. No significant change in the prevalence of HBV infection was observed between 1999 and 2016 (P = 0.442), affecting 0.35% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.28-0.45) or 0.84 million adults. In contrast, a significant decrease in HBV exposure and increase in vaccine-mediated immunity was observed. U.S.-born persons had significantly lower prevalence of HBV infection and exposure as well as higher prevalence of vaccine-mediated immunity and self-reported vaccination than foreign-born persons. Prevalence of HBV infection was highest in non-Hispanic Asians in both foreign- (3.85%; 95% CI, 2.97-4.97) and U.S.-born (0.79%; 95% CI, 0.17-3.59) persons during 2011-2016. Among infected persons, liver disease awareness was only 15.19%, and treatment rate was only 4.60%. Conclusion: This study revealed disparities of HBV infection among ethnic/racial groups and between U.S.-born and foreign-born persons. Awareness of liver disease and treatment rate among infected persons was dismal.

Evaluation of ethnic influence in the application of a hepatocellular carcinoma predictive model for chronic hepatitis C.

Currently, there is no well-established algorithm predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in untreated hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients. We aimed to validate an algorithm (risk evaluation of viral load elevation and associated liver disease/HCV [REVEAL-HCV]: age, AST, ALT, HCV RNA, HCV genotype, and cirrhosis) developed in Taiwanese patients. We analyzed 1381 (50.1% White, 14.7% Hispanic, 13.8% Asian of diverse origin, and 7.8% African American) adult treatment-naïve HCV patients (no viral co-infection, no HCC within 6 months) at 4 U.S. and one Hong Kong centers (11/1994-10/2017). Compared to the non-Asian cohort, the Asian cohort had a higher percentage of patients in the low-risk group (46.1% vs. 26.1%) and a lower percentage in the high-risk group (12.0% vs. 20.3%, p < 0.01). Overall, 5-year HCC incidence were 1.75%, 4.71%, and 24.4% for low, medium, and high-risk patients, respectively (p < 0.0001). For the overall cohort, area under receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for HCC prediction were 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.93), 0.82 (95% CI: 0.75-0.88), and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.77-0.89) for 1-, 3-, and 5-year HCC risk, respectively. There was a slightly lower AUROC for Asians compared to the non-Asian cohort at 3 years (0.75 vs. 0.83) and 5 years (0.78 vs. 0.84), though this was not statistically significant. In multivariable analysis, we found male sex, presence of metabolic syndrome as well as the risk score categories to be independently associated with HCC but not ethnicity. The REVEAL-HCV risk score has good validity for both Asian and non-Asian populations. Further studies should consider additional factors, such as sex, metabolic syndrome, and treatment status.

Validity of International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Codes for Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate identification of patients with cirrhosis is important for research using administrative databases. We aimed to examine the accuracy of several major ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis diagnosis in a large and diverse patient cohort; there is little existing research on this topic. METHODS: Using data from 3,396 patients with chronic liver disease (hepatitis B or C or nonalcoholic fatty liver disease) from 1 university and several community medical centers, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for several major ICD-10 codes for cirrhosis, which was verified by individual chart review. We performed a secondary validation in a general cohort of 1,560 randomly selected patients. RESULTS: While each of the individual study ICD-10 codes were specific (98.08-100%), none of the codes were sufficiently sensitive (0.27-55.70%). PPVs were high in the chronic liver disease cohort (88.41-100%) but lower in the general population (55.53-66.76%). The AUROC for having at least 1 code was higher (0.79) than any code alone (0.50-0.65). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Individual ICD-10 codes are suboptimal for identifying patients with cirrhosis in the general patient population. We recommend conditioning ICD-10 code searches with a chronic liver disease diagnosis code and/or combining diagnostic codes to maximize performance.

Prevalence of Undetectable Vaccine-Induced Immunity Against Hepatitis B Virus in US Adults at High Risk for Infection.

In 2015, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported a substantial increase in the number of acute hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections in the United States. Although national guidelines recommend vaccination of adults at high risk for HBV infection, the prevalence of undetectable immunity (i.e., susceptibility) in this population remains unknown. In this study, we analyzed a nationally representative sample using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to evaluate the prevalence, trend, and predictors of undetectable vaccine-induced antibodies against HBV surface antigen (<10 mIU/mL) among high-risk adults from 2003-2014. Among adults at high risk for HBV infection, the prevalence of undetectable immunity decreased from 83.2% in 2003-2004 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 81.3-85.0) to 69.4% (about 64 million) in 2013-2014 (95% CI: 66.0-72.6). The prevalence decreased significantly in individuals with multiple sex partners or sexually transmitted disease and in pregnant women. However, there were no significant changes in men who have sex with men (MSMs), intravenous drug users (IDUs), hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected and patients with diabetes, and those with elevated aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT). Mexican Americans had the highest prevalence of undetectable immunity (77.6%, 95% CI: 72.6-81.9), followed by non-Hispanic whites (70.1%, 95% CI: 66.9-73.1). Older age, lower socioeconomic status, and having at least 1 high-risk factor were associated with a higher risk of undetectable immunity, whereas an increased risk among the foreign-born disappeared after multivariable adjustment. Conclusion: Approximately 64 million high-risk adults in the United States remain susceptible to HBV infection, especially MSMs, IDUs, diabetics, HCV patients, and populations with elevated AST/ALT. To eliminate HBV, efforts should be made to increase screening and vaccination in high-risk adults.

Global incidence of adverse clinical events in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with a multitude of adverse outcomes. We aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of NAFLD-related adverse events. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of adults with NAFLD to evaluate the pooled incidence of adverse events. RESULTS: 19,406 articles were screened, 409 full-text articles reviewed, and 79 eligible studies (1,377,466 persons) were included. Mean age was 51.47 years and body mass index 28.90 kg/m2. Baseline comorbidities included metabolic syndrome (41.73%), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (16.83%), cirrhosis (21.97%), and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (58.85%). Incidence rate per 1,000 person-years for mortality included: all-cause (14.6), CVD-related (4.53), non-liver cancer-related (4.53), and liver-related (3.10). Incidence for liver-related events included overall (24.3), fibrosis progression (49.0), cirrhosis (10.9), liver transplant (12.0), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (3.39). Incidence for non-liver events included metabolic syndrome (25.4), hypertension (25.8), dyslipidemia (26.4), diabetes (19.0), CVD (24.77), renal impairment (30.3), depression/anxiety (29.1), and non-liver cancer (10.5). Biopsy-proven NASH had higher incidence of HCC (P=0.043) compared to non-NASH. Higher rates of CVD and mortality were observed in North America and Europe, hypertension and non-liver cancer in North America, and HCC in Western Pacific/Southeast Asia (P<0.05). No significant differences were observed by sex. Time-period analyses showed decreasing rates of cardiovascular and non-liver cancer mortality and increasing rates of decompensated cirrhosis (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: People with NAFLD have high incidence of liver and non-liver adverse clinical events, varying by NASH, geographic region, and time-period, but not sex.

Upper limit of normal ALT levels in health and metabolic diseases: Pooled analysis of 423,355 individuals with bootstrap modelling.

INTRODUCTION: Given the global rise in obesity-related metabolic diseases, the upper limit of normal (ULN) alanine aminotransferase (ALT) in individuals with and without metabolic diseases may have changed. We performed a meta-analysis combined with bootstrap modelling to estimate the ALT ULN levels for individuals with and without metabolic diseases. METHODS AND RESULTS: Two separate searches of the PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were performed, one to identify healthy individuals which yielded 12 articles (349,367 individuals); another to include those with potential metabolic diseases but without known liver disease which yielded 35 articles (232,388 individuals). We estimated the mean ALT using a random-effects mixed model and the ULN level (95th-percentile value) via a bootstrap model with 10,000 resamples. In individuals without metabolic diseases and known liver disease, the ALT ULN levels were 32 U/L overall; 36 U/L in males and 28 U/L in females. In analyses that included individuals with metabolic diseases, the ALT ULN levels were 40 U/L among the overweight/obese (29 U/L if normal weight) and 36 U/L among those with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (33 U/L if no T2DM). On meta-regression of study-level factors, body mass index (coefficient 1.49, 95% CI 0.11-2.86, p = 0.03), high-density lipoprotein (coefficient -0.47, 95% CI -0.85-(-0.08), p = 0.02) and triglycerides (coefficient 0.19, 95% CI 0.12-0.25, p < 0.0001) correlated with ALT. CONCLUSION: We provide expected ranges of ALT ULN levels for individuals without known liver disease without metabolic diseases and those with or without T2DM and/or are normal weight or overweight/obese. These data may have implications for clinical care and screening.

Forecasted 2040 global prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease using hierarchical bayesian approach.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Due to increases in obesity and type 2 diabetes, the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has also been increasing. Current forecast models may not include non-obese NAFLD. Here, we used the Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through the year 2040. METHODS: Prevalence data from 245 articles involving 2,699,627 persons were used with a hierarchical Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through 2040. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, gender, presence of metabolic syndrome, region, and smoking status. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for clinical setting and study quality. RESULTS: The forecasted 2040 prevalence was 55.7%, a three-fold increase since 1990 and a 43.2% increase from the 2020 prevalence of 38.9%. The estimated average yearly increase since 2020 was 2.16%. For those aged <50 years and ≥50 years, the 2040 prevalence were not significantly different (56.7% vs. 61.5%, P=0.52). There was a significant difference in 2040 prevalence by sex (males: 60% vs. 50%) but the trend was steeper for females (annual percentage change: 2.5% vs. 1.5%, P=0.025). There was no difference in trends overtime by region (P=0.48). The increase rate was significantly higher in those without metabolic syndrome (3.8% vs. 0.84%, P=0.003) and smokers (1.4% vs. 1.1%, P=0.011). There was no difference by clinical/community setting (P=0.491) or study quality (P=0.85). CONCLUSION: By 2040, over half the adult population is forecasted to have NAFLD. The largest increases are expected to occur in women, smokers, and those without metabolic syndrome. Intensified efforts are needed to raise awareness of NAFLD and to determine long-term solutions addressing the driving factors of the disease.

A population-based US study of hepatitis C diagnosis rate.

BACKGROUND: Underdiagnosis of HCV infection may hinder the obtainment of 2030 elimination goal. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pre-DAA HCV diagnosis rate to inform future public health effort. METHODS: Data were obtained from three nationwide databases (Truven Health MarketScan Research Database 2007-2014, US Census Bureau 2012-2016 and NHANES 2007-2014). HCV diagnosis was defined with either one inpatient or two outpatient HCV International Classification of Disease 9 codes, providing the number of patients with diagnosed HCV (Truven). US Census Bureau data were used for age- and sex-standardization. We derived the total (diagnosed and undiagnosed) HCV infection using the NHANES database. To determine the rate and number of undiagnosed HCV, we subtracted diagnosed HCV burden (Truven) from the total HCV burden (NHANES). RESULTS: Of the 198 073 302 privately insured Americans, 1.49% (2 951 490 persons) had HCV infection. However, only 362 672 (12.29%) persons were diagnosed with HCV, leaving 2 588 818 (87.71%) undiagnosed. About two-third (68.04%) and one-third (33.04%) of diagnosed HCV patients had HCV RNA or genotype tests overall, with even lower rates for the ≥65 age group, respectively. CONCLUSION: In the pre-DAA era, only 12% of insured Americans with HCV were diagnosed. While this grim statistic is expected to rise, much more effort is needed to enhance the HCV care cascade.

Nondestructive Assessment of Early Tooth Demineralization Using Cross-Polarization Optical Coherence Tomography.

New methods are needed for the nondestructive measurement of tooth demineralization and remineralization to monitor the progression of incipient caries lesions (tooth decay) for effective nonsurgical intervention and to evaluate the performance of anticaries treatments such as chemical treatments or laser irradiation. Studies have shown that optical coherence tomography (OCT) has great potential to fulfill this role since it can be used to measure the depth and severity of early lesions with an axial resolution exceeding 10 µm, it is easy to apply in vivo and it can be used to image the convoluted topography of tooth occlusal surfaces. In this paper, a review of the use of polarization-sensitive-OCT for the measurement of tooth demineralization is provided along with some recent results regarding improved methods for the detection of caries lesions in the earliest stages of development. Automated methods of analysis were used to measure the depth and severity of demineralized bovine enamel produced using simulated caries models that emulate demineralization in the mouth. Significant differences in the depth and integrated reflectivity from the lesions were detected after only a few hours of demineralization. These results demonstrate that cross-polarization-OCT is ideally suited for the nondestructive assessment of early demineralization.