Ordered and deterministic cancer genome evolution after p53 loss.

Although p53 inactivation promotes genomic instability1 and presents a route to malignancy for more than half of all human cancers2,3, the patterns through which heterogenous TP53 (encoding human p53) mutant genomes emerge and influence tumorigenesis remain poorly understood. Here, in a mouse model of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma that reports sporadic p53 loss of heterozygosity before cancer onset, we find that malignant properties enabled by p53 inactivation are acquired through a predictable pattern of genome evolution. Single-cell sequencing and in situ genotyping of cells from the point of p53 inactivation through progression to frank cancer reveal that this deterministic behaviour involves four sequential phases-Trp53 (encoding mouse p53) loss of heterozygosity, accumulation of deletions, genome doubling, and the emergence of gains and amplifications-each associated with specific histological stages across the premalignant and malignant spectrum. Despite rampant heterogeneity, the deletion events that follow p53 inactivation target functionally relevant pathways that can shape genomic evolution and remain fixed as homogenous events in diverse malignant populations. Thus, loss of p53-the 'guardian of the genome'-is not merely a gateway to genetic chaos but, rather, can enable deterministic patterns of genome evolution that may point to new strategies for the treatment of TP53-mutant tumours.

Dose-Response Modeling: Extrapolating From Experimental Data to Real-World Populations.

Dose-response modeling of biological agents has traditionally focused on describing laboratory-derived experimental data. Limited consideration has been given to understanding those factors that are controlled in a laboratory, but are likely to occur in real-world scenarios. In this study, a probabilistic framework is developed that extends Brookmeyer's competing-risks dose-response model to allow for variation in factors such as dose-dispersion, dose-deposition, and other within-host parameters. With data sets drawn from dose-response experiments of inhalational anthrax, plague, and tularemia, we illustrate how for certain cases, there is the potential for overestimation of infection numbers arising from models that consider only the experimental data in isolation.

The use and reporting of airline passenger data for infectious disease modelling: a systematic review.

BackgroundA variety of airline passenger data sources are used for modelling the international spread of infectious diseases. Questions exist regarding the suitability and validity of these sources.AimWe conducted a systematic review to identify the sources of airline passenger data used for these purposes and to assess validation of the data and reproducibility of the methodology.MethodsArticles matching our search criteria and describing a model of the international spread of human infectious disease, parameterised with airline passenger data, were identified. Information regarding type and source of airline passenger data used was collated and the studies' reproducibility assessed.ResultsWe identified 136 articles. The majority (n = 96) sourced data primarily used by the airline industry. Governmental data sources were used in 30 studies and data published by individual airports in four studies. Validation of passenger data was conducted in only seven studies. No study was found to be fully reproducible, although eight were partially reproducible.LimitationsBy limiting the articles to international spread, articles focussed on within-country transmission even if they used relevant data sources were excluded. Authors were not contacted to clarify their methods. Searches were limited to articles in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus.ConclusionWe recommend greater efforts to assess validity and biases of airline passenger data used for modelling studies, particularly when model outputs are to inform national and international public health policies. We also recommend improving reporting standards and more detailed studies on biases in commercial and open-access data to assess their reproducibility.

Spatial methods for infectious disease outbreak investigations: systematic literature review.

Investigations of infectious disease outbreaks are conventionally framed in terms of person, time and place. Although geographic information systems have increased the range of tools available, spatial analyses are used relatively infrequently. We conducted a systematic review of published reports of outbreak investigations worldwide to estimate the prevalence of spatial methods, describe the techniques applied and explore their utility. We identified 80 reports using spatial methods published between 1979 and 2013, ca 0.4% of the total number of published outbreaks. Environmental or waterborne infections were the most commonly investigated, and most reports were from the United Kingdom. A range of techniques were used, including simple dot maps, cluster analyses and modelling approaches. Spatial tools were usefully applied throughout investigations, from initial confirmation of the outbreak to describing and analysing cases and communicating findings. They provided valuable insights that led to public health actions, but there is scope for much wider implementation and development of new methods.

Estimating the potential for global dissemination of pandemic pathogens using the global airline network and healthcare development indices.

Pandemics have the potential to incur significant health and economic impacts, and can reach a large number of countries from their origin within weeks. Early identification and containment of a newly emerged pandemic within the source country is key for minimising global impact. To identify a country's potential to control and contain a pathogen with pandemic potential, we compared the quality of a country's healthcare system against its global airline connectivity. Healthcare development was determined using three multi-factorial indices, while detailed airline passenger data was used to identify the global connectivity of all countries. Proximities of countries to a putative 'Worst Case Scenario' (extreme high-connectivity and low-healthcare development) were calculated. We found a positive relationship between a country's connectivity and healthcare metrics. We also identified countries that potentially pose the greatest risk for pandemic dissemination, notably Dominican Republic, India and Pakistan. China and Mexico, both sources of recent influenza and coronavirus pandemics were also identified as among the highest risk countries. Collectively, lower-middle and upper-middle income countries represented the greatest risk, while high income countries represented the lowest risk. Our analysis represents an alternative approach to identify countries where increased within-country disease surveillance and pandemic preparedness may benefit global health.

Modeling Legionnaires' disease outbreaks: estimating the timing of an aerosolized release using symptom-onset dates.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, there have been a number of reported Legionnaires' disease outbreaks resulting from the release of causative organisms from aerosol-producing devices. METHODS: We model a Legionnaires' disease epidemic curve as the convolution of an infection-time distribution (representing the aerosolized release) and an incubation-period distribution. The model is fitted to symptom-onset data from specific outbreaks to estimate the start and end dates of the release. We also develop this retrospective "back-calculation" model into a prospective "real-time" model that can estimate the final size of an ongoing outbreak, in addition to the timing of its release. RESULTS: In the retrospective analysis, the estimated release end dates were generally earlier than reported end dates. This suggests that, in many outbreaks, the release might have already ended by the time the source was reportedly cleaned or closed. Prospective analysis showed that valid estimates of the release start date could be achieved early in the outbreak, the total number of cases could be reasonably determined shortly after the release had ended, and estimates of the release end date could be satisfactorily achieved in the latter stages of the outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: This model could be used in the course of a Legionnaires' disease outbreak to provide early estimates of the total number of cases, thus helping to inform public-health planning. Toward the end of the outbreak, estimates of the release end date could help corroborate standard epidemiologic, environmental, and microbiologic investigations that seek to identify the source.

Perceptions and reactions with regard to pneumonic plague.

We assessed perceptions and likely reactions of 1,005 UK adults to a hypothetical terrorist attack involving pneumonic plague. Likely compliance with official recommendations ranged from good (98% would take antimicrobial drugs) to poor (76% would visit a treatment center). Perceptions about plague were associated with these intentions.

Estimating the location and spatial extent of a covert anthrax release.

Rapidly identifying the features of a covert release of an agent such as anthrax could help to inform the planning of public health mitigation strategies. Previous studies have sought to estimate the time and size of a bioterror attack based on the symptomatic onset dates of early cases. We extend the scope of these methods by proposing a method for characterizing the time, strength, and also the location of an aerosolized pathogen release. A back-calculation method is developed allowing the characterization of the release based on the data on the first few observed cases of the subsequent outbreak, meteorological data, population densities, and data on population travel patterns. We evaluate this method on small simulated anthrax outbreaks (about 25-35 cases) and show that it could date and localize a release after a few cases have been observed, although misspecifications of the spore dispersion model, or the within-host dynamics model, on which the method relies can bias the estimates. Our method could also provide an estimate of the outbreak's geographical extent and, as a consequence, could help to identify populations at risk and, therefore, requiring prophylactic treatment. Our analysis demonstrates that while estimates based on the first ten or 15 observed cases were more accurate and less sensitive to model misspecifications than those based on five cases, overall mortality is minimized by targeting prophylactic treatment early on the basis of estimates made using data on the first five cases. The method we propose could provide early estimates of the time, strength, and location of an aerosolized anthrax release and the geographical extent of the subsequent outbreak. In addition, estimates of release features could be used to parameterize more detailed models allowing the simulation of control strategies and intervention logistics.

Planning for smallpox outbreaks.

Mathematical models of viral transmission and control are important tools for assessing the threat posed by deliberate release of the smallpox virus and the best means of containing an outbreak. Models must balance biological realism against limitations of knowledge, and uncertainties need to be accurately communicated to policy-makers. Smallpox poses the particular challenge that key biological, social and spatial factors affecting disease spread in contemporary populations must be elucidated largely from historical studies undertaken before disease eradication in 1979. We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens.

Factors that influence treatment-seeking expectations in response to infectious intestinal disease: Original survey and multinomial regression.

BACKGROUND: Infectious intestinal disease affects 25% of the UK population annually; 1 in 50 affected people consult health professionals about their illness. AIMS: We tested if anticipated treatment-seeking decisions for suspected infectious intestinal disease could be related to emotional response, tolerance of symptoms, or beliefs about the consequential benefits and harms of seeking treatment (or not). METHODS: Questionnaire survey of adults living in the UK with statistical analysis of responses. A vignette was presented about a hypothetical gastrointestinal illness. People stated their emotional reactions, expected actions in response and beliefs about possible benefits or harms from seeking treatment (or not getting treatment). Multinomial regression looked for predictors of anticipated behaviour. RESULTS: People were inclined to consult a GP when they believed that seeking treatment would be beneficial and that its absence would be harmful. Seeking treatment was less anticipated if the condition was expected to improve quickly. Respondents were also more likely to consult if they strongly disliked fever or headache, and/or if the illness made them feel anxious or angry. Treatment-seeking (or lack of it) was not linked to harms from treatment-seeking, other specific symptoms and emotional responses. CONCLUSION: It was possible to link anticipated treatment-seeking behaviour to specific factors: expected prognosis, perceived benefits of seeking treatment, some emotions and some specific symptoms.

Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: a review of volunteer challenge studies.

The dynamics of viral shedding and symptoms following influenza virus infection are key factors when considering epidemic control measures. The authors reviewed published studies describing the course of influenza virus infection in placebo-treated and untreated volunteers challenged with wild-type influenza virus. A total of 56 different studies with 1,280 healthy participants were considered. Viral shedding increased sharply between 0.5 and 1 day after challenge and consistently peaked on day 2. The duration of viral shedding averaged over 375 participants was 4.80 days (95% confidence interval: 4.31, 5.29). The frequency of symptomatic infection was 66.9% (95% confidence interval: 58.3, 74.5). Fever was observed in 37.0% of A/H1N1, 40.6% of A/H3N2 (p = 0.86), and 7.5% of B infections (p = 0.001). The total symptoms scores increased on day 1 and peaked on day 3. Systemic symptoms peaked on day 2. No such data exist for children or elderly subjects, but epidemiologic studies suggest that the natural history might differ. The present analysis confirms prior expert opinion on the duration of viral shedding or the frequency of asymptomatic influenza infection, extends prior knowledge on the dynamics of viral shedding and symptoms, and provides original results on the frequency of respiratory symptoms or fever.

Assessment of the Public Health Threats Posed by Vector-Borne Disease in the United Kingdom (UK).

In recent years, the known distribution of vector-borne diseases in Europe has changed, with much new information also available now on the status of vectors in the United Kingdom (UK). For example, in 2016, the UK reported their first detection of the non-native mosquito Aedes albopictus, which is a known vector for dengue and chikungunya virus. In 2010, Culex modestus, a principal mosquito vector for West Nile virus was detected in large numbers in the Thames estuary. For tick-borne diseases, data on the changing distribution of the Lyme borreliosis tick vector, Ixodes ricinus, has recently been published, at a time when there has been an increase in the numbers of reported human cases of Lyme disease. This paper brings together the latest surveillance data and pertinent research on vector-borne disease in the UK, and its relevance to public health. It highlights the need for continued vector surveillance systems to monitor our native mosquito and tick fauna, as well as the need to expand surveillance for invasive species. It illustrates the importance of maintaining surveillance capacity that is sufficient to ensure accurate and timely disease risk assessment to help mitigate the UK's changing emerging infectious disease risks, especially in a time of climatic and environmental change and increasing global connectivity.

Forced migrants involved in setting the agenda and designing research to reduce impacts of complex emergencies: combining Swarm with patient and public involvement.

PLAIN ENGLISH SUMMARY: The UK's National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response was asked to undertake research on how to reduce the impact of complex national/international emergencies on public health. How to focus the research and decide on priority topics was challenging, given the nature of complex events. Using a type of structured brain-storming, the researchers identified the ongoing UK, European and international migration crisis as both complex and worthy of deeper research. To further focus the research, two representatives of forced migrant communities were invited to join the project team as patient and public (PPI) representatives. They attended regular project meetings, insightfully contributed to and advised on practical aspects of potential research areas. The representatives identified cultural obstacles and community needs and helped choose the final research study design, which was to interview forced migrants about their strategies to build emotional resilience and prevent mental illness. The representatives also helped design recruitment documents, and undertake recruitment and interviewer training. BACKGROUND: Many events with wide-ranging negative health impacts are notable for complexity: lack of predictability, non-linear feedback mechanisms and unexpected consequences. A multi-disciplinary research team was tasked with reducing the public health impacts from complex events, but without a pre-specified topic area or research design. This report describes using patient and public involvement within an adaptable but structured development process to set research objectives and aspects of implementation. METHODS: An agile adaptive development approach, sometimes described as swarm, was used to identify possible research areas. Swarm is meant to quickly identify strengths and weaknesses of any candidate project, to accelerate early failure before resources are invested. When aspects of the European migration crisis were identified as a potential priority topic area, two representatives of forced migrant communities were recruited to explore possible research ideas. These representatives helped set the specific research objectives and advised on aspects of implementation, still within the swarm framework for project development. RESULTS: Over ten months, many research ideas were considered by the collaborative working group in a series of six group meetings, supplemented by email contact in between. Up to four possible research ideas were scrutinised at any one meeting, with a focus on identifying practical or desirable aspects of each proposed project. Interest settled on a study to solicit original data about successful strategies that forced migrants use to adapt to life in the UK, with an emphasis on successfully promoting resilience and minimizing emotional distress. "Success in resettlement" was identified to be a more novel theme than "barriers to adaption" research. A success approach encourages participation when individuals may find discussion of mental illness stigmatising. The patient representatives helped with design of patient-facing and interview training materials, interviewer training (mock interviews), and aspects of the recruitment. CONCLUSION: Using patient and public involvement (PPI) within an early failure development approach that itself arises from theory on complex adaptive systems, we successfully implemented a dynamic development process to determine research topic and study design. The PPI representatives were closely involved in setting research objectives and aspects of implementation.

Analysis of the potential for survival and seasonal activity of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the United Kingdom.

The international trade in used tires, coupled with the ability to lay non-desiccating eggs, has enabled Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) to travel and establish on new continents, including North, Central, and South America, the Caribbean, Australasia, Africa, and Europe. Concerns have been raised over its potential role in the transmission of arboviruses and Dirofilaria nematodes. Following importation into northerly latitudes, photoperiodically-induced egg diapause enables establishment of Ae. albopictus, and a number of abiotic factors determine the subsequent seasonal activity. The United Kingdom (U.K.) imports over 5 million used tires annually, and this seems the most likely route by which Ae. albopictus would be imported. The anthropophilic and container-breeding nature of Ae. albopictus could cause an urban human biting nuisance and the potential for involvement in (human and veterinary) disease transmission cycles needs to be assessed. This paper addresses the likelihood for importation of Ae. albopictus into the U.K. and assesses, using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based model, the ability for Ae. albopictus to establish, and the likely seasonal activity. It also reviews its possible role as a potential disease vector in the U.K. The model predicts that abiotic risk factors would permit establishment of Ae. albopictus throughout large parts of lowland U.K., with at least four to five months of adult activity (May-September), being more prolonged in the urban centers around London and the southern coastal ports. Pre-emptive surveillance of possible imported Ae. albopictus, through a targeted approach, could prevent the establishment of this exotic mosquito and mitigate any subsequent human and animal health implications for the U.K., either now or in the future.

Phase I trial of Orzel (UFT plus leucovorin), cisplatin, and radiotherapy in the treatment of potentially resectable esophageal cancer.

PURPOSE: Fluorinated pyrimidines have been established as radiosensitizers in the combined modality therapy of esophageal cancer. UFT, an oral combination of a 5-fluorouracil pro-drug (uracil) and a dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase inhibitor (ftorafur), may provide improvement in the ease of administration with equal efficacy. This Phase I study was designed to determine the maximal tolerated dose and dose-limiting toxicity of UFT, leucovorin, and cisplatin when given with radiotherapy in the neoadjuvant treatment of resectable esophageal cancer. METHODS: Chemotherapy consisted of i.v. cisplatin 80 mg/m(2) (Days 1 and 22) and UFT with leucovorin orally on Days 1-35. UFT was escalated in 50-mg/m(2) increments, starting at 200 mg/m(2)/d. Radiotherapy consisted of 4500 cGy in 25 fractions. Patients underwent resection 4-6 weeks after chemoradiotherapy. RESULTS: Ten patients with resectable esophageal cancer were enrolled. Of the 7 patients entered at dose level 1, 1 developed a dose-limiting toxicity of nausea. All 3 patients entered at dose level 2 developed dose-limiting toxicity. The maximal tolerated dose for UFT was the starting level, 200 mg/m(2)/d. Of the 10 patients enrolled, 8 underwent esophagectomy and 2 developed progressive disease and did not undergo surgery. The disease of 6 of the 8 patients was downstaged at surgery. CONCLUSION: The recommended UFT dose for Phase II studies is 200 mg/m(2)/d given orally in two divided doses when given with leucovorin, cisplatin, and radiotherapy.

Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK.

During the early part of the 21st century, an unprecedented change in the status of vector-borne disease in Europe has occurred. Invasive mosquitoes have become widely established across Europe, with subsequent transmission and outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya virus. Malaria has re-emerged in Greece, and West Nile virus has emerged throughout parts of eastern Europe. Tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, continue to increase, or, in the case of tick-borne encephalitis and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses, have changed their geographical distribution. From a veterinary perspective, the emergence of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses show that northern Europe is equally susceptible to transmission of vector-borne disease. These changes are in part due to increased globalisation, with intercontinental air travel and global shipping transport creating new opportunities for invasive vectors and pathogens. However, changes in vector distributions are being driven by climatic changes and changes in land use, infrastructure, and the environment. In this Review, we summarise the risks posed by vector-borne diseases in the present and the future from a UK perspective, and assess the likely effects of climate change and, where appropriate, climate-change adaptation strategies on vector-borne disease risk in the UK. Lessons from the outbreaks of West Nile virus in North America and chikungunya in the Caribbean emphasise the need to assess future vector-borne disease risks and prepare contingencies for future outbreaks. Ensuring that adaptation strategies for climate change do not inadvertently exacerbate risks should be a primary focus for decision makers.

Enhanced West Nile virus surveillance in the North Kent marshes, UK.

BACKGROUND: As part of efforts to more fully understand the potential risks posed by West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) in the UK, and following on from previous reports of a potential bridge vector Culex modestus for these viruses, at wetland sites in North Kent, mosquito surveillance was undertaken more widely across the Isle of Sheppey, the Hoo Peninsula and the Kent mainland. METHODS: Larval surveys were conducted and Mosquito Magnet® adult traps were used to collect adult mosquitoes. Pools of female mosquitoes were tested for the presence of WNV using real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. A subset of samples was tested for USUV. RESULTS: Culex modestus was found in both the pre-imaginal and imago stage at all five locations surveyed, accounting for 90% of adult mosquitoes collected. WNV or USUV were not detected in any sample. CONCLUSIONS: Although no mosquitoes have been shown to be virus positive, the field survey data from this study demonstrated the dominance of an important bridge vector species for WNV in this region. Its wide geographical distribution highlights the need to update risk assessments on WNV introduction, and to maintain vigilance for WNV in the South East of England.

Different invasion phenotypes of Campylobacter isolates in Caco-2 cell monolayers.

The pathogenesis of campylobacter enteritis is not well understood, but invasion into and translocation across intestinal epithelial cells may be involved in the disease process, as demonstrated for a number of other enteric pathogens. However, the mechanisms involved in these processes are not clearly defined for campylobacters. In this study, isolates were compared quantitatively in established assays with the enterocyte-like cell line, Caco-2, to determine the extent to which intracellular invasion contributes to translocation across epithelial cell monolayers, and whether isolates vary in this respect. Ten fresh Campylobacter isolates were compared and shown to differ in invasiveness by a factor of 10-fold by following their recovery from gentamicin-treated Caco-2 cells grown on nonpermeable tissue-culture wells. Four of these isolates with contrasting invasive ability were also shown to vary in their ability to translocate across Caco-2 cells grown on semipermeable Transwell inserts by a factor >10. However, translocation did not quantitatively correlate with the intracellular invasiveness of these isolates. Isolate no. 9752 was poorly invasive but had modest translocation ability, isolate no. 10392 was very invasive but did not translocate significantly and remained within the monolayer, isolate no. 9519 both translocated and invaded well, whereas, isolate no. 235 translocated very efficiently but was poorly invasive. Isolate no. 9519 also uniquely caused a transitory flattening of the Caco-2 cells and a possible drop in trans-epithelial electrical resistance (TEER) of the Transwell monolayers, whereas isolate no. 235 did not show these effects. Together these data demonstrate that there are significantly different 'invasion' phenotypes among Campylobacter strains involving different degrees of intracellular invasion, and either different rates of transcellular trafficking or, alternatively, paracellular trafficking.

Zebrafish reporter lines reveal in vivo signaling pathway activities involved in pancreatic cancer.

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma, one of the worst malignancies of the exocrine pancreas, is a solid tumor with increasing incidence and mortality in industrialized countries. This condition is usually driven by oncogenic KRAS point mutations and evolves into a highly aggressive metastatic carcinoma due to secondary gene mutations and unbalanced expression of genes involved in the specific signaling pathways. To examine in vivo the effects of KRAS(G12D) during pancreatic cancer progression and time correlation with cancer signaling pathway activities, we have generated a zebrafish model of pancreatic adenocarcinoma in which eGFP-KRAS(G12D) expression was specifically driven to the pancreatic tissue by using the GAL4/UAS conditional expression system. Outcrossing the inducible oncogenic KRAS(G12D) line with transgenic zebrafish reporters, harboring specific signaling responsive elements of transcriptional effectors, we were able to follow TGFß, Notch, Bmp and Shh activities during tumor development. Zebrafish transgenic lines expressing eGFP-KRAS(G12D) showed normal exocrine pancreas development until 3 weeks post fertilization (wpf). From 4 to 24 wpf we observed several degrees of acinar lesions, characterized by an increase in mesenchymal cells and mixed acinar/ductal features, followed by progressive bowel and liver infiltrations and, finally, highly aggressive carcinoma. Moreover, live imaging analysis of the exocrine pancreatic tissue revealed an increasing number of KRAS-positive cells and progressive activation of TGFß and Notch pathways. Increase in TGFß, following KRAS(G12D) activation, was confirmed in a concomitant model of medulloblastoma (MDB). Notch and Shh signaling activities during tumor onset were different between MDB and pancreatic adenocarcinoma, indicating a tissue-specific regulation of cell signaling pathways. Moreover, our results show that a living model of pancreatic adenocarcinoma joined with cell signaling reporters is a suitable tool for describing in vivo the signaling cascades and molecular mechanisms involved in tumor development and a potential platform to screen for novel oncostatic drugs.