Can We Use Lung Function Thresholds and Respiratory Symptoms to Identify Pre-Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A Prospective, Population-based Cohort Study.

Rationale: The term "pre-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease" ("pre-COPD") refers to individuals at high risk of developing COPD who do not meet conventional spirometric criteria for airflow obstruction. New approaches to identifying these individuals are needed, particularly in younger populations. Objectives: To determine whether lung function thresholds and respiratory symptoms can be used to identify individuals at risk of developing COPD. Methods: The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study comprises a population-based cohort first studied in 1968 (at age 7 yr). Respiratory symptoms, pre- and post-bronchodilator (BD) spirometry, diffusing capacity, and static lung volumes were measured in a subgroup at age 45, and the incidence of COPD was assessed at age 53. For each lung function measure, z-scores were calculated using Global Lung Function Initiative references. The optimal threshold for best discrimination of COPD incidence was determined by the unweighted Youden index. Measurements and Main Results: Among 801 participants who did not have COPD at age 45, the optimal threshold for COPD incidence by age 53 was pre-BD FEV1/FVC z-score less than -1.264, corresponding to the lowest 10th percentile. Those below this threshold had a 36-fold increased risk of developing COPD over an 8-year follow-up period (risk ratio, 35.8; 95% confidence interval, 8.88 to 144), corresponding to a risk difference of 16.4% (95% confidence interval, 3.7 to 67.4). The sensitivity was 88%, and the specificity was 87%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.79 and 0.14, respectively. Respiratory symptoms, post-BD spirometry, diffusing capacity, and static lung volumes did not improve on the classification achieved by pre-BD FEV1/FVC alone. Conclusions: This is the first study, to our knowledge, to evaluate the discriminatory accuracy of spirometry, diffusing capacity, and static lung volume thresholds for COPD incidence in middle-aged adults. Our findings support the inclusion of pre-BD spirometry in the physiological definition of pre-COPD and indicate that pre-BD FEV1/FVC at the 10th percentile accurately identifies individuals at high risk of developing COPD in community-based settings.

Longitudinal peanut and Ara h 2 specific-IgE, -IgG4, and -IgG4/-IgE ratios are associated with the natural resolution of peanut allergy in childhood.

BACKGROUND: There are no studies of longitudinal immunoglobulin measurements in a population-based cohort alongside challenge-confirmed peanut allergy outcomes. Little is known about biomarkers for identifying naturally resolving peanut allergy during childhood. OBJECTIVES: To measure longitudinal trends in whole peanut and component Ara h 2 sIgE and sIgG4 in the first 10 years of life, in a population cohort of children with challenge-confirmed peanut allergy, and to determine whether peanut-specific immunoglobulin levels or trends are associated with peanut allergy persistence or resolution by 10 years of age. METHODS: One-year-old infants with challenge-confirmed peanut allergy (n = 156) from the HealthNuts study (n = 5276) were prospectively followed at ages 4, 6, and 10 years with questionnaires, skin prick tests, oral food challenges, and plasma total-IgE, sIgE and sIgG4 to peanut and Ara h 2. RESULTS: Peanut allergy resolved in 33.9% (95% CI = 25.3%, 43.3%) of children by 10 years old with most resolving (97.4%, 95% CI = 86.5%, 99.9%) by 6 years old. Decreasing Ara h 2 sIgE (p = .01) and increasing peanut sIgG4 (p < .001), Ara h 2 sIgG4 (p = .01), peanut sIgG4/sIgE (p < .001) and Ara h 2 sIgG4/sIgE (p < .001) from 1 to 10 years of age were associated with peanut allergy resolution. Peanut sIgE measured at 1 year old had the greatest prognostic value (AUC = 0.75 [95% CI = 0.66, 0.82]); however, no single threshold produced both high sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSION: One third of infant peanut allergy resolved by 10 years of age. Decreasing sIgE and sIgG4 to peanut and Ara h 2 over time were associated with natural resolution of peanut allergy. However, biomarker levels at diagnosis were not strongly associated with the natural history of peanut allergy.

Childhood infections, asthma and allergy trajectories, and chronic rhinosinusitis in middle age: A prospective cohort study across six decades.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on the early life risk factors of adult CRS, and the history of asthma and allergies across the life course, is limited. AIM: To investigate relationships between respiratory infective/allergic conditions in childhood, and asthma and allergies across the life course and CRS in middle age. METHODS: Data were from the population-based Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) cohort, first studied in 1968 when aged 6-7 years (n = 8583) and serially followed into middle age (n = 3609). Using a well-accepted epidemiological definition, participants were assigned a CRS-severity subtype at age 53: no sinusitis/CRS (reference); past doctor diagnosis only; current symptoms without doctor diagnosis; and doctor-diagnosed CRS with current symptoms. Relationships with infective/allergic respiratory illnesses at age 7, and previously published asthma-allergy trajectories from 7 to 53 years, were examined using multinominal regression. RESULTS: In middle age, 5.8% reported current CRS symptoms with 2.5% doctor-diagnosed. Childhood conditions associated with symptomatic doctor-diagnosed CRS included frequent head colds (multinomial odds ratio [mOR] = 2.04 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.24, 3.37)), frequent tonsillitis (mOR = 1.61 [95% CI: 1.00, 2.59]) and current childhood asthma (mOR = 2.23 [95% CI: 1.25, 3.98]). Life course trajectories that featured late-onset or persistent asthma and allergies were associated with all CRS subtypes in middle age; early-onset persistent asthma and allergies (mOR = 6.74, 95% CI: 2.76, 16.4); late-onset asthma allergies (mOR = 15.9, 95% CI: 8.06, 31.4), and late-onset hayfever (mOR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.51, 6.06) were associated with symptomatic doctor-diagnosed CRS. CONCLUSION: Current asthma, frequent head colds and tonsillitis at age 7 could signal a susceptible child who is at higher risk for CRS in mid-adult life and who might benefit from closer monitoring and/or proactive management. Concurrent asthma and allergies were strongly associated and are potential treatable traits of adult CRS.

Longitudinal Asthma Phenotypes from Childhood to Middle-Age: A Population-based Cohort Study.

Rationale: Asthma is a heterogeneous condition, and longitudinal phenotyping may provide new insights into the origins and outcomes of the disease. Objectives: We aimed to characterize the longitudinal phenotypes of asthma between the first and sixth decades of life in a population-based cohort study. Methods: Respiratory questionnaires were collected at seven time points in the TAHS (Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study) when participants were aged 7, 13, 18, 32, 43, 50, and 53 years. Current-asthma and ever-asthma status was determined at each time point, and group-based trajectory modeling was used to characterize distinct longitudinal phenotypes. Linear and logistic regression models were fitted to investigate associations of the longitudinal phenotypes with childhood factors and adult outcomes. Measurements and Main Results: Of 8,583 original participants, 1,506 had reported ever asthma. Five longitudinal asthma phenotypes were identified: early-onset adolescent-remitting (40%), early-onset adult-remitting (11%), early-onset persistent (9%), late-onset remitting (13%), and late-onset persistent (27%). All phenotypes were associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease at age 53 years, except for late-onset remitting asthma (odds ratios: early-onset adolescent-remitting, 2.00 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.13-3.56]; early-onset adult-remitting, 3.61 [95% CI, 1.30-10.02]; early-onset persistent, 8.73 [95% CI, 4.10-18.55]; and late-onset persistent, 6.69 [95% CI, 3.81-11.73]). Late-onset persistent asthma was associated with the greatest comorbidity at age 53 years, with increased risk of mental health disorders and cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions: Five longitudinal asthma phenotypes were identified between the first and sixth decades of life, including two novel remitting phenotypes. We found differential effects of these phenotypes on risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and nonrespiratory comorbidities in middle age.

Childhood body mass index trajectories and asthma and allergies: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Previous systematic reviews have focused on associations between single time point measures of Body Mass Index (BMI) and asthma and allergic diseases. As BMI changes dynamically during childhood, examination of associations between longitudinal trajectories in BMI and allergic diseases is needed to fully understand the nature of these relationships. OBJECTIVE: To systematically synthesise the association between BMI trajectories in childhood (0-18 years) and allergic diseases (asthma, eczema, allergic rhinitis, or food allergies outcomes). DESIGN: We conducted a systematic review following the PRISMA guidelines, and two independent reviewers assessed the study quality using the ROBINS-E and GRADE tools. A narrative synthesis was performed as the statistical heterogeneity did not allow a meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: A search was performed on PubMed and EMBASE databases on 4th January 2023. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Longitudinal cohort studies assessing the associations between childhood BMI trajectories and allergic diseases were included. RESULTS: Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria with a total of 37,690 participants between 0 and 53 years of age. Ten studies examined asthma outcomes, three assessed association with allergic rhinitis, two assessed eczema, and one assessed food allergy. High heterogeneity and high risk of bias were observed. Overall, the quality of evidence was very low. Nevertheless, two consistent findings were identified: (1) a persistently high BMI between 6 and 10 years of age may be associated with an increased risk of asthma at 18 years and (2) a rapid increase in BMI in the first 2 years of life may be associated with subsequent asthma. CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining a normal BMI trajectory during childhood may reduce the risk of asthma. Future research that adequately addresses confounding and includes longer-term follow-up is needed. Moreover, additional studies examining potential associations with eczema, food allergies, and allergic rhinitis outcomes are needed.

Is antenatal or early-life vitamin D associated with eczema or food allergy in childhood? A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To summarise the associations between antenatal or early-life blood vitamin D and the development of eczema/food allergy in childhood. DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analyses were conducted to synthesize the published literature. Two reviewers independently performed the study selection and data extraction on Covidence. We assessed the risk of bias for observational studies by using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool for clinical trials. The certainty of the evidence was assessed using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE). DATA SOURCES: We systematically searched PubMed and Embase from inception and April 2022. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Human studies that investigated prospective associations between antenatal or early-life blood vitamin D levels, dietary intake or supplementation and childhood eczema/food allergy. RESULTS: Forty-three articles including six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included. Four RCTs of vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy showed no evidence of an effect on the incidence of eczema (pooled odds ratio [OR] = 0.85; 0.67-1.08, I2  = 6.7%, n = 2074). Three RCTs reported null associations between supplementation in pregnancy/infancy and food allergy. From six cohort studies, increasing cord blood vitamin D levels were associated with reduced prevalence of eczema at/close to age one (OR per 10 nmol/L increase = 0.89; 0.84-0.94, I2  = 0%, 2025 participants). We found no evidence of an association between maternal antenatal or infant vitamin D level or dietary intake and the development of food allergy or eczema in offspring. CONCLUSIONS: We found an association between higher vitamin D levels in cord blood and reduced risk of eczema in cohort studies. Further trials with maternal and infant supplementation are needed to confirm if vitamin D supplementation can effectively prevent eczema or food allergy in childhood. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, No. CRD42013005559.

Biomarkers of asthma relapse and lung function decline in adults with spontaneous asthma remission: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which biomarkers of asthma activity persist in spontaneous asthma remission and whether such markers are associated with future respiratory outcomes remained unclear. We investigated the association between sub-clinical inflammation in adults with spontaneous asthma remission and future asthma relapse and lung function decline. METHODS: The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study is a population-based cohort (n = 8583). Biomarkers of systemic inflammation were measured on participants at age 45, and latent profile analysis was used to identify cytokine profiles. Bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) and nitric oxide products in exhaled breath condensate (EBC NOx) were measured at age 50. Participants with spontaneous asthma remission at ages 45 (n = 466) and 50 (n = 318) were re-evaluated at age 53, and associations between baseline inflammatory biomarkers and subsequent asthma relapse and lung function decline were assessed. RESULTS: We identified three cytokine profiles in adults with spontaneous asthma remission: average (34%), Th2-high (42%) and Th2-low (24%). Compared to the average profile, a Th2-high profile was associated with accelerated decline in post-BD FEV1 /FVC (MD -0.18% predicted per-year; 95% CI -0.33, -0.02), while a Th2-low profile was associated with accelerated decline in both post-BD FEV1 (-0.41%; -0.75, -0.06) and post-BD FVC (-0.31%; -0.62, 0.01). BHR and high TNF-α during spontaneous remission were associated with an increased risk of asthma relapse. In contrast, we found no evidence of association between EBC NOx and either asthma relapse or lung function decline. CONCLUSION: BHR and serum inflammatory cytokines have prognostic value in adults with spontaneous asthma remission. At-risk individuals with BHR, Th2-high or Th2-low cytokine profiles may benefit from closer monitoring and on-going follow-up.

Household use of biomass fuel, especially traditional stove is associated with childhood wheeze and eczema: a cross sectional study of rural communities in Kandy, Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: Most households in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rely on biomass fuel for daily cooking. Studies investigating the association between early life exposure to household air pollution and health outcomes in children in LMICs are limited. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of biomass fuel for cooking and different types of stoves on wheeze and allergies in children of rural Sri Lankan communities. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 452 children aged 5 years and younger in Kandy, Sri Lanka. Mothers completed a questionnaire on the use of biomass fuel and respiratory and allergic outcomes in children. The associations between biomass fuel and outcomes were analyzed using logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Use of biomass fuel for cooking was associated with increased risk of childhood wheeze (aOR 2.29; 95% CI 1.04-5.08) and eczema (aOR 4.57; 95% CI 1.24-16.89) compared with households that used clean fuel (liquid petroleum gas (LPG), electricity and/or biogas). Among households that used biomass fuel, use of traditional biomass stoves was associated with a higher risk of childhood wheeze (aOR 2.95; 95% CI 1.19-7.33), allergic rhinitis (aOR 3.01; 95% CI 1.42-6.39), and eczema (aOR 7.39; 95% CI 1.70-32.06) compared with households that used clean stoves. CONCLUSION: Children living in households that use biomass fuel, especially traditional biomass cookstoves, have a higher risk of wheeze and allergic diseases. Access to affordable clean energy sources that reduce air pollution may help improve the health of children in rural LMICs.Supplemental data for this article is available online at at www.tandfonline.com/ijas .

Exploration of associations between occupational exposures and current adult eczema.

OBJECTIVES: There is a scarcity of evidence on occupational exposures that may increase eczema in adults. We aimed to investigate potential associations between occupational exposures and eczema in middle-aged adults. METHODS: A lifetime work history calendar was collected from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study participants when they were at age 53. Their work history was collated with the occupational asthma-specific job exposure matrix to define ever-exposure and cumulative exposure unit-years since no eczema job exposure matrix is available. Eczema was determined using the report of flexural rash that was coming and going for at least 6 months in the last 12 months. Skin prick tests were used to further subgroup eczema and atopic eczema (AE) or non-AE (NAE). Logistic and multinomial regression models were used to investigate the associations. RESULTS: Eczema prevalence was 9.1%. Current occupational exposure to animals (adjusted OR, aOR=3.06 (95% CI 1.43 to 6.58)), storage mites (aOR=2.96 (95% CI 1.38 to 6.34)) and endotoxin (aOR=1.95 (95% CI 1.04 to 3.64)) were associated with increased risk of current eczema. Furthermore, increased odds of NAE were associated with current exposure to animals (aOR=5.60 (95% CI 1.45 to 21.7)) and storage mites (aOR=5.63 (95% CI 1.45 to 21.9)). Current exposures to isocyanates (aOR=5.27 (95% CI 1.17 to 23.7)) and acrylates (aOR=8.41 (95% CI 1.60 to 44.3)) were associated with AE. There was no evidence of associations between cumulative exposures and eczema prevalence. Cumulative exposure to metalworking fluids (aOR=1.10 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.22)) was associated with NAE and acrylates (aOR=1.24 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.46)) with AE. CONCLUSIONS: In this exploratory assessment, multiple occupational exposures were associated with current eczema in middle-aged adults. Raising awareness and limiting these exposures during an individual's productive working life will likely have various health benefits, including reducing eczema prevalence.

Small for gestational age is associated with reduced lung function in middle age: A prospective study from first to fifth decade of life.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The association between birth weight, particularly relative to gestational age, and adult lung function is uncertain. We investigated the associations between birth weight relative to gestational age and measures of lung function in middle age, and mediation of these associations by adult height. METHODS: Participants in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study who had both known birth weight and lung function assessment at age 45 years were included (n = 849). Linear regression models were fitted to investigate the association between small for gestational age and birth weight with post-bronchodilator lung function measures (forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1 ], forced vital capacity [FVC], FEV1 /FVC, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide [DL co], residual volume [RV] and total lung capacity [TLC]), adjusting for potential confounders. The contribution of adult height as a mediator of these associations was investigated. RESULTS: Compared with infants born with normal weight for gestational age, those born small for gestational age had reduced FEV1 (coefficient: -191 ml [95%CI: -296, -87]), FVC (-205 ml [-330, -81]), TLC (-292 ml [-492, -92]), RV (-126 ml [-253, 0]) and DL co (-0.42 mmol/min/kPa [-0.79, -0.041]) at age 45 years. However, they had comparable FEV1 /FVC. For every 1 kg increase in birth weight, lung function indices increased by an average of 117 ml (95%CI: 40, 196) for FEV1 , 124 ml (30, 218) for FVC, 215 ml (66, 365) for TLC and 0.36 mmol/min/kPa (0.11, 0.62) for DL co, independent of gestational age, but again not for FEV1 /FVC. These associations were significantly mediated by adult height (56%-90%). CONCLUSION: Small for gestational age was associated with reduced lung function that is likely due to smaller lungs with little evidence of any specific parenchymal impairment.

Epidemiology of eczema in South-Eastern Australia.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Eczema is a common chronic debilitating skin condition in childhood. Data on the epidemiology and natural history of eczema across the life course are lacking. This analysis aimed to describe these epidemiological features in Australian children and adults. METHODS: Data collected on eczema from four Australian cohort studies were analysed: namely HealthNuts, Melbourne Atopic Cohort Study (MACS), Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) and the Australian arm of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS). RESULTS: Among children aged under 6 years, 28.8%-35.6% have ever-had eczema, and 16.7%-26.6% had 'current eczema'. Among those aged 6-12 years, 14.6%-24.7% had 'current eczema' with 12.0%-18.5% of those at ages of 6 and 10 years classified as having moderate-to-severe eczema according to the Scoring of Atopic Dermatitis (SCORAD) index. In adults, the prevalence of 'eczema ever' ranged between 13.8% and 48.4%. The 12-month period prevalence of eczema was 15.1% at age 18, while current eczema was 8.5% at an average age of 51, and 8.8% at an average age 53 years. Eczema was more common among young boys, but this difference became non-significant for older children and early adolescents. In contrast, eczema was more common for adult women than men. CONCLUSIONS: Eczema is common both in children and adults. The proportion of severe eczema in children was substantial.

The natural history of peanut and egg allergy in children up to age 6 years in the HealthNuts population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Prospectively collected data on the natural history of food allergy are lacking. OBJECTIVE: We examined the natural history of egg and peanut allergy in children from age 1 to 6 years and assessed whether a skin prick test (SPT) result or other clinical factors at diagnosis are associated with the persistence or resolution of food allergy in early childhood. METHODS: The HealthNuts cohort consists of 5276 children who were recruited at age 1 year and have been followed prospectively. Children with food allergy at age 1 year (peanut [n = 156] or raw egg [n = 471] allergy ) and children who developed new sensitizations or food reactions after age 1 year were assessed for food sensitization and allergy (confirmed by oral food challenge when indicated) at the 6-year follow-up. RESULTS: New-onset food allergy developed by age 6 years was more common for peanut (0.7% [95% CI = 0.5%-1.1%]) than egg (0.09% [95% CI = 0.03%-0.3%]). Egg allergy resolved more commonly (89% [95% CI = 85%-92%]) than peanut allergy (29% [95% CI = 22%-38%]) by age 6 years. The overall weighted prevalence of peanut allergy at age 6 years was 3.1% (95% CI = 2.6-3.7%) and that of egg allergy was 1.2% (95% = CI 0.9%-1.6%). The factors at age 1 year associated with persistence of peanut allergy were peanut SPT result of 8 mm or larger (odds ratio [OR] = 2.35 [95% CI 1.08-5.12]), sensitization to tree nuts (adjusted OR [aOR] = 2.51 [95% CI = 1.00-6.35]), and early-onset severe eczema (aOR = 3.23, [95% CI 1.17-8.88]). Factors at age 1 associated with persistence of egg allergy at age 6 were egg SPT result of 4 mm or larger (OR = 2.98 [95% CI 1.35-6.36]), other (peanut and/or sesame) food sensitizations (aOR = 2.80 [95% CI = 1.11-7.03]), baked egg allergy (aOR = 7.41 [95% CI = 2.16-25.3]), and early-onset severe eczema (aOR = 3.77 [95% CI = 1.35-10.52]). CONCLUSION: Most egg allergy and nearly one-third of peanut allergy resolves naturally by age 6 years. The prevalence of peanut allergy at age 6 years was similar to that observed at age 1 year, largely owing to new-onset food peanut allergy after age 1 year. Infants with early-onset eczema, larger SPT wheals, or multiple food sensitizations and/or allergies were less likely to acquire tolerance to either peanut or egg.

Parental preconception BMI trajectories from childhood to adolescence and asthma in the future offspring.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests that parental exposures before conception can increase the risk of asthma in offspring. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between parents' preconception body mass index (BMI) trajectories from childhood to adolescence and subsequent risk of asthma in their offspring. METHODS: Using group-based trajectory modeling from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study, we identified BMI trajectories for index participants (parents) when aged 4 years to 15 years. Multinomial regression models adjusted for potential confounders were utilized to estimate the association between these early-life parents' BMI trajectories and asthma phenotypes in their subsequent offspring. RESULTS: The main analysis included 1822 parents and 4208 offspring. Four BMI trajectories from age 4 years to 15 years were identified as the best-fitting model: low (8.8%), normal (44.1%), above normal (40.2%), and high (7.0%). Associations were observed between father's high BMI trajectory and risk of asthma in offspring before the age of 10 years (relative risk ratio [RRR] =1.70 [95% CI = 0.98-2.93]) and also asthma ever (RRR = 1.72 [95% CI = 1.00-2.97]), especially allergic asthma ever (RRR = 2.05 [95% CI = 1.12-3.72]). These associations were not mediated by offspring birth weight. No associations were observed for maternal BMI trajectories and offspring asthma phenotypes. CONCLUSION: This cohort study over 6 decades of life and across 2 generations suggests that the high BMI trajectory in fathers, well before conception, increased the risk of asthma in their offspring.

Impact of lifetime body mass index trajectories on the incidence and persistence of adult asthma.

BACKGROUND: High body mass index (BMI) trajectories from childhood to adulthood are associated with the development of some chronic diseases, but whether such trajectories influence adult asthma has not been investigated to date. Therefore, we investigated associations between BMI trajectories from childhood to middle age (5-43 years) and incidence, persistence and relapse of asthma from ages 43 to 53 years. METHODS: In the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (n=4194), weight and height were recorded at eight time-points between 5 and 43 years of age. BMI trajectories were developed using group-based trajectory modelling. Associations between BMI trajectories and asthma incidence, persistence and relapse from age 43 to 53 years, bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR) at age 50 years, and bronchodilator responsiveness at age 53 years were modelled using multiple logistic and linear regression. RESULTS: Five distinct BMI trajectories were identified: average, low, child high-decreasing, child average-increasing and high. Compared with the average trajectory, child average-increasing and high trajectories were associated with increased risk of incident asthma (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6.6 and OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.7-11.4, respectively) and BHR in middle age (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.1-7.5 and OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.1-11.4, respectively). No associations were observed for asthma persistence or relapse. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with child average-increasing and high BMI trajectories from childhood to middle age were at higher risk of incident adult asthma. Thus, encouraging individuals to maintain a normal BMI over the life course may help reduce the burden of adult asthma.

Establishing subclasses of childhood eczema, their risk factors and prognosis.

BACKGROUND: The heterogeneity of development and progression of eczema suggests multiple underlying subclasses for which aetiology and prognosis may vary. A better understanding may provide a comprehensive overview of eczema development and progression in childhood. Thus, we aimed to determine longitudinal eczema subclasses based on assessments and identify their associations with risk factors and allergic outcomes. METHODS: A total of 619 participants with a family history of allergic disease were assessed at 24 time-points from birth to 12 years. At each time, eczema was defined as the report of current rash treated with topical steroid-based preparations. Longitudinal latent class analysis was used to determine eczema subclasses. Subsequent analyses using regression models assessed the associations between eczema subclasses and potential risk factors and allergic outcomes at 18- and 25-year follow-ups (eczema, allergic rhinitis, asthma and allergic sensitization). RESULTS: We identified five eczema subclasses 'early-onset persistent', 'early-onset resolving', 'mid-onset persistent', 'mid-onset resolving' and 'minimal eczema'. Filaggrin null mutations were associated with the early-onset persistent (OR = 2.58 [1.09-6.08]) and mid-onset persistent class (OR = 2.58 [1.32-5.06]). Compared with 'minimal eczema', participants from early-onset persistent class had higher odds of eczema (OR = 11.8 [5.20-26.6]) and allergic rhinitis (OR = 3.13 [1.43-6.85]) at 18 and at 25 years eczema (OR = 9.37 [3.17-27.65]), allergic rhinitis (OR = 3.26 [1.07-9.93]) and asthma (OR = 2.91 [1.14-7.43]). Likewise, mid-onset persistent class had higher odds of eczema (OR = 2.59 [1.31-5.14]), allergic rhinitis (OR = 1.70 [1.00-2.89]) and asthma (OR = 2.00 [1.10-3.63]) at 18 and at 25 years eczema (OR = 6.75 [3.11-14-65]), allergic rhinitis (OR = 2.74 [1.28-5.88]) and asthma (OR = 2.50 [1.25-5.00]). Allergic and food sensitization in early life was more common in those in the persistent eczema subclasses. CONCLUSION: We identified five distinct eczema subclasses. These classes were differentially associated with risk factors, suggesting differences in aetiology, and also with the development of allergic outcomes, highlighting their potential to identify high-risk groups for close monitoring and intervention.

The association between domestic hard water and eczema in adults from the UK Biobank cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Eczema is a chronic inflammatory skin disease. Domestic water with high mineral content (hard water) is a risk factor for eczema in children, but this association has not been assessed in adults. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between domestic hard water supply and eczema prevalence and incidence in adults aged 40-69 years and the contextual effect in eczema outcomes by postcode in adults in the UK. METHODS: We used data from the UK Biobank study collected in 2006-10 (baseline) and 2013-14 (follow-up). Eczema prevalence at baseline (2006-10) and at follow-up (2013-14) and incidence (new onset between baseline and follow-up) were determined from the touchscreen questionnaires and nurse-led interviews. Domestic hard water information was obtained in 2005 and 2013 from the local water supply companies in England, Wales and Scotland as CaCO3 concentrations. We fitted multilevel logistic regression models with random intercepts for postcode areas to examine the effect of domestic hard water on eczema outcomes, and we measured components of variance. RESULTS: In total, 306 531 participants with a mean age of 57 years nested across 7642 postcodes were included in the baseline analysis, and 31 036 participants nested across 3695 postcodes were included in the follow-up analysis. We observed an increase in the odds of eczema at baseline [odds ratio (OR) 1·02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·01-1·04] per 50 mg L-1 of CaCO3 increase. Furthermore, exposure to domestic hard water (> 200 mg L-1 of CaCO3 ) was associated with increased odds of prevalent eczema at baseline (OR 1·12, 95% CI 1·04-1·22). Moreover, there was a significant linear trend (P < 0·001) in which increasing levels of hard water increased eczema prevalence risk. No association was observed with incident eczema or eczema at follow-up. The intraclass correlation coefficient for postcode was 1·6% (95% CI 0·7-3·4), which remained unexplained by area-level socioeconomic measures. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing levels of domestic hard water, as measured by CaCO3 concentrations, were associated with an increased prevalence of eczema in adults but not increased incidence. Ongoing efforts to reduce hard water exposure may have a beneficial effect in reducing the burden of eczema in adults. Further research is needed to explore area-level factors that may lead to eczema. What is already known about this topic? Hard water is formed when minerals are dissolved in water from filtration through sedimentary rocks. Several studies have reported a higher prevalence of eczema in areas with hard water. However, all studies on this topic have assessed this in infants and school-aged children, while this association has not been explored in adults. What does this study add? Our findings suggest that exposure to higher concentrations of domestic hard water is associated with an increase in eczema prevalence in adults aged 40-69 years. Ongoing efforts to reduce hard water exposure may have a beneficial effect in reducing eczema prevalence in adults.

The association between environmental greenness and the risk of food allergy: A population-based study in Melbourne, Australia.

BACKGROUND: While exposure to environmental greenness in childhood has shown mixed associations with the development of allergic disease, the relationship with food allergy has not been explored. We investigated the association between exposure to environmental greenness and challenge-confirmed food allergy in a large population-based cohort. METHODS: The HealthNuts study recruited 5276 12-month-old infants in Melbourne, Australia, who underwent skin prick testing to peanut, egg, and sesame; infants with a detectable wheal underwent food challenges to determine food allergy status. Environmental greenness was estimated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for five buffer zones around the infant's home address: at the home, 100 m, 500 m, 800 m, and 1600 m radial distances. Environmental greenness was categorized into 3 tertiles and mixed effects logistic regression models quantified the association between greenness and the risk of food allergy, adjusting for confounding and accounting for clustering at the neighborhood level. RESULTS: NDVI data were available for n = 5097. For most buffer zones, medium and high greenness, compared to low greenness, was associated with an increased risk of peanut allergy (eg, 100 m tertile 2 aOR 1.89 95% CI 1.22-2.95, tertile 3 aOR 1.78 95% CI 1.13-2.82). For egg allergy, the effect sizes were smaller (100 m tertile 2 aOR 1.52 95% CI 1.16-1.97, tertile 3 aOR 1.38 95% CI 1.05-1.82). Socioeconomic status (SES) modified the association between greenness and peanut allergy, but not egg allergy; associations were apparent in the low SES group but not in the high SES group (p for interaction 0.08 at 100 m). Air pollution (PM2.5) also modified the associations between environmental greenness and food allergy, with associations present in high air pollution areas but not low (p for interaction at 100 m 0.05 for peanut and 0.06 for egg allergy.) CONCLUSION: Increased exposure to environmental greenness in the first year of life was associated with an increased risk of food allergy. Increased greenness may correlate with higher pollen levels which may trigger innate immune responses skewing the immune system to the Th2-dependent allergic phenotype; additionally, some pollen and food allergens are cross-reactive. Given the mixed data on greenness and other allergies, the relationship appears complex and may also be influenced by confounding variables outside those that were measured in this study.

Associations between Body Mass Index Trajectories in the first two years of life and Allergic Rhinitis, Eczema and Food Allergy outcomes up to early adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Early life body mass index (BMI) trajectories influence the risk of asthma at 18 years of age. However, it is unclear if these are also associated with other allergic diseases. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the associations between BMI trajectories and subsequent allergic rhinitis, eczema and food sensitisation/allergies. METHODS: Parent-reported anthropometric data were collected 18 times in the first two years of life from a cohort of 620 participants in a high-risk cohort. Group-based trajectory modelling was applied to develop BMI trajectories. Associations between trajectories and allergic rhinitis, eczema and food sensitisation at 6, 12 and 18 years of age were assessed using logistic regression models. Potential effect modifications by parental allergic disease, sex and allocated infant formula were assessed. RESULTS: We identified five BMI trajectories: average, below average, persistently low, early low and catch up, and persistently high. None showed an association with allergic rhinitis. In participants with maternal allergic rhinitis, 'early-low and catch-up' (OR = 2.83;95%CI 1.34-5.96, Pint  = 0.05) and 'below average' trajectories (OR = 2.39; 1.18-7.23, Pint  = 0.02) were associated with allergic rhinitis at 18 years of age compared with the average trajectory. No associations were observed with eczema or food sensitisation. CONCLUSION: Infants with early-low and catch-up, or below average BMI growth, were at increased risk of allergic rhinitis at 18 years if they had a mother with allergic rhinitis. These results require replication, but suggest that interactions between poor intrauterine growth, failure to thrive and maternal allergies may influence the risk of allergic rhinitis.

The role of short-term grass pollen exposure in food skin-prick test reactivity, food allergy, and eczema flares in children.

BACKGROUND: While the relationship between pollen and respiratory allergies is well-documented, the role of short-term pollen exposure in food allergy and eczema flares has not previously been explored. We aimed to investigate these associations in a population-based sample of children. METHODS: We investigated 1- (n = 1108) and 6-year-old (n = 675) children in the grass pollen season from the HealthNuts cohort. Grass pollen concentrations were considered on the day of testing (lag 0), up to three days before (lag 1-lag 3) and cumulatively (lag 0-3). Associations between grass pollen and food skin-prick test reactivity (SPT ≥ 2 mm at age 1 year and ≥ 3 mm at age 6 years), eczema flares, challenge-confirmed food allergy, reaction threshold to oral food challenges (OFC), and serum food-specific IgE levels were analyzed using either logistic or quantile regression models. Atopy and family history of allergic disease were considered as potent effect modifiers. RESULTS: Grass pollen at lag 0-3 (every 20 grains/m3 increase) was associated with an up to 1.2-fold increased odds of food SPT reactivity and eczema flares in 6-year-olds. In 1-year-olds, the associations were only observed for peanut in those with a family history of food allergy. Increasing grass pollen concentrations were associated with a lower reaction threshold to OFC and higher serum IgE levels in peanut-allergic 1-year-olds only. CONCLUSION: Increasing grass pollen concentration was associated with increased risk of food SPT reactivity and eczema flares in children. The associations in peanut-allergic infants may be related to immune activation and/or peanut and grass pollen cross-reactivity leading to a lower reaction threshold.

The effect of farming environment on asthma; time dependent or universal?

The increasing prevalence of asthma is linked to westernization and urbanization. Farm environments have been associated with a lower risk of asthma development. However, this may not be universal, as the association differs across birth cohorts and farming methods. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations of farm upbringing with asthma in different generations and at different times in history. The study population consisted of three generations: 13,868 subjects participating in the ECRHS in 2010, their 9,638 parents, and their 8,885 offspring participating in RHINESSA in 2013. Information on place of upbringing and self-reported ever asthma was provided via questionnaires. Logistic regression was performed including subgroup analysis stratified by generation and birthyear into ten-year-intervals. The prevalence of asthma increased from 8% among grandparents to 13% among parents and to 18% among offspring. An overall analysis showed an inverse association of farm upbringing on the risk of asthma (OR = 0.64; 95%CI 0.55-0.74). Subgroup analysis stratified into ten-year-intervals showed a tendency towards a more pronounced inverse association between growing up on a farm and asthma among subjects born in the 1940s (0.74; 0.48-1.12), 1950s (0.70; 0.54-0.90) and 1960s (0.70; 0.52-0.93). For subjects born in 1970 and thereafter this association appeared less consistent. While growing up on a farm was associated with a reduced risk of developing asthma in participants born between 1945-1999, this was mainly driven by generations born from 1945 to 1973.