Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: A scoping review.

Plasmodium vivax is one of the most geographically widespread malaria parasites in the world, primarily found across South-East Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. One of the significant characteristics of the P. vivax parasite is its ability to remain dormant in the human liver as hypnozoites and subsequently reactivate after the initial infection (i.e. relapse infections). Mathematical modelling approaches have been widely applied to understand P. vivax dynamics and predict the impact of intervention outcomes. Models that capture P. vivax dynamics differ from those that capture P. falciparum dynamics, as they must account for relapses caused by the activation of hypnozoites. In this article, we provide a scoping review of mathematical models that capture P. vivax transmission dynamics published between January 1988 and May 2023. The primary objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive summary of the mathematical models and techniques used to model P. vivax dynamics. In doing so, we aim to assist researchers working on mathematical epidemiology, disease transmission, and other aspects of P. vivax malaria by highlighting best practices in currently published models and highlighting where further model development is required. We categorise P. vivax models according to whether a deterministic or agent-based approach was used. We provide an overview of the different strategies used to incorporate the parasite's biology, use of multiple scales (within-host and population-level), superinfection, immunity, and treatment interventions. In most of the published literature, the rationale for different modelling approaches was driven by the research question at hand. Some models focus on the parasites' complicated biology, while others incorporate simplified assumptions to avoid model complexity. Overall, the existing literature on mathematical models for P. vivax encompasses various aspects of the parasite's dynamics. We recommend that future research should focus on refining how key aspects of P. vivax dynamics are modelled, including spatial heterogeneity in exposure risk and heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, the accumulation of hypnozoite variation, the interaction between P. falciparum and P. vivax, acquisition of immunity, and recovery under superinfection.

Chronic malaria exposure is associated with inhibitory markers on T cells that correlate with atypical memory and marginal zone-like B cells.

Chronic immune activation from persistent malaria infections can induce immunophenotypic changes associated with T-cell exhaustion. However, associations between T and B cells during chronic exposure remain undefined. We analyzed peripheral blood mononuclear cells from malaria-exposed pregnant women from Papua New Guinea and Spanish malaria-naïve individuals using flow cytometry to profile T-cell exhaustion markers phenotypically. T-cell lineage (CD3, CD4, and CD8), inhibitory (PD1, TIM3, LAG3, CTLA4, and 2B4), and senescence (CD28-) markers were assessed. Dimensionality reduction methods revealed increased PD1, TIM3, and LAG3 expression in malaria-exposed individuals. Manual gating confirmed significantly higher frequencies of PD1+CD4+ and CD4+, CD8+, and double-negative (DN) T cells expressing TIM3 in malaria-exposed individuals. Increased frequencies of T cells co-expressing multiple markers were also found in malaria-exposed individuals. T-cell data were analyzed with B-cell populations from a previous study where we reported an alteration of B-cell subsets, including increased frequencies of atypical memory B cells (aMBC) and reduction in marginal zone (MZ-like) B cells during malaria exposure. Frequencies of aMBC subsets and MZ-like B cells expressing CD95+ had significant positive correlations with CD28+PD1+TIM3+CD4+ and DN T cells and CD28+TIM3+2B4+CD8+ T cells. Frequencies of aMBC, known to associate with malaria anemia, were inversely correlated with hemoglobin levels in malaria-exposed women. Similarly, inverse correlations with hemoglobin levels were found for TIM3+CD8+ and CD28+PD1+TIM3+CD4+ T cells. Our findings provide further insights into the effects of chronic malaria exposure on circulating B- and T-cell populations, which could impact immunity and responses to vaccination.

Comparing malaria risk exposure in rural Cambodia population using GPS tracking and questionnaires.

BACKGROUND: The Great Mekong Subregion has attained a major decline in malaria cases and fatalities over the last years, but residual transmission hotspots remain, supposedly fueled by forest workers and migrant populations. This study aimed to: (i) characterize the fine-scale mobility of forest-goers and understand links between their daily movement patterns and malaria transmission, using parasites detection via real time polymerase chain reaction (RT PCR) and the individual exposure to Anopheles bites by quantification of anti-Anopheles saliva antibodies via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay; (ii) assess the concordance of questionnaires and Global Positioning System (GPS) data loggers for measuring mobility. METHODS: Two 28 day follow-ups during dry and rainy seasons, including a GPS tracking, questionnaires and health examinations, were performed on male forest goers representing the population at highest risk of infection. Their time spent in different land use categories and demographic data were analyzed in order to understand the risk factors driving malaria in the study area. RESULTS: Malaria risk varied with village forest cover and at a resolution of only a few kilometers: participants from villages outside the forest had the highest malaria prevalence compared to participants from forest fringe's villages. The time spent in a specific environment did not modulate the risk of malaria, in particular the time spent in forest was not associated with a higher probability to detect malaria among forest-goers. The levels of antibody response to Anopheles salivary peptide among participants were significantly higher during the rainy season, in accordance with Anopheles mosquito density variation, but was not affected by sociodemographic and mobility factors. The agreement between GPS and self-reported data was only 61.9% in reporting each kind of visited environment. CONCLUSIONS: In a context of residual malaria transmission which was mainly depicted by P. vivax asymptomatic infections, the implementation of questionnaires, GPS data-loggers and quantification of anti-saliva Anopheles antibodies on the high-risk group were not powerful enough to detect malaria risk factors associated with different mobility behaviours or time spent in various environments. The joint implementation of GPS trackers and questionnaires allowed to highlight the limitations of both methodologies and the benefits of using them together. New detection and follow-up strategies are still called for.

Using serological diagnostics to characterize remaining high-incidence pockets of malaria in forest-fringe Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decades, the number of malaria cases has drastically reduced in Cambodia. As the overall prevalence of malaria in Cambodia declines, residual malaria transmission becomes increasingly fragmented over smaller remote regions. The aim of this study was to get an insight into the burden and epidemiological parameters of Plasmodium infections on the forest-fringe of Cambodia. METHODS: 950 participants were recruited in the province of Mondulkiri in Cambodia and followed up from 2018 to 2020. Whole-blood samples were processed for Plasmodium spp. identification by PCR as well as for a serological immunoassay. A risk factor analysis was conducted for Plasmodium vivax PCR-detected infections throughout the study, and for P. vivax seropositivity at baseline. To evaluate the predictive effect of seropositivity at baseline on subsequent PCR-positivity, an analysis of P. vivax infection-free survival time stratified by serological status at baseline was performed. RESULTS: Living inside the forest significantly increased the odds of P. vivax PCR-positivity by a factor of 18.3 (95% C.I. 7.7-43.5). Being a male adult was also a significant predictor of PCR-positivity. Similar risk profiles were identified for P. vivax seropositivity. The survival analysis showed that serological status at baseline significantly correlated with subsequent infection. Serology is most informative outside of the forest, where 94.0% (95% C.I. 90.7-97.4%) of seronegative individuals survived infection-free, compared to 32.4% (95% C.I.: 22.6-46.6%) of seropositive individuals. CONCLUSION: This study justifies the need for serological diagnostic assays to target interventions in this region, particularly in demographic groups where a lot of risk heterogeneity persists, such as outside of the forest.

Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves.

BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), there have been multiple waves of infection and multiple rounds of vaccination rollouts. Both prior infection and vaccination can prevent future infection and reduce severity of outcomes, combining to form hybrid immunity against COVID-19 at the individual and population level. Here, we explore how different combinations of hybrid immunity affect the size and severity of near-future Omicron waves. METHODS: To investigate the role of hybrid immunity, we use an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission with waning immunity to simulate outbreaks in populations with varied past attack rates and past vaccine coverages, basing the demographics and past histories on the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. RESULTS: We find that if the past infection immunity is high but vaccination levels are low, then the secondary outbreak with the same variant can occur within a few months after the first outbreak; meanwhile, high vaccination levels can suppress near-term outbreaks and delay the second wave. Additionally, hybrid immunity has limited impact on future COVID-19 waves with immune-escape variants. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced understanding of the interplay between infection and vaccine exposure can aid anticipation of future epidemic activity due to current and emergent variants, including the likely impact of responsive vaccine interventions.

Antibody to Plasmodium falciparum Variant Surface Antigens, var Gene Transcription, and ABO Blood Group in Children With Severe or Uncomplicated Malaria.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies to variant surface antigens (VSAs) such as Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) may vary with malaria severity. The influence of ABO blood group on antibody development is not understood. METHODS: Immunoglobulin G antibodies to VSAs in Papua New Guinean children with severe (n = 41) or uncomplicated (n = 30) malaria were measured by flow cytometry using homologous P falciparum isolates. Isolates were incubated with ABO-matched homologous and heterologous acute and convalescent plasma. RNA was used to assess var gene transcription. RESULTS: Antibodies to homologous, but not heterologous, isolates were boosted in convalescence. The relationship between antibody and severity varied by blood group. Antibodies to VSAs were similar in severe and uncomplicated malaria at presentation, higher in severe than uncomplicated malaria in convalescence, and higher in children with blood group O than other children. Six var gene transcripts best distinguished severe from uncomplicated malaria, including UpsA and 2 CIDRα1 domains. CONCLUSIONS: ABO blood group may influence antibody acquisition to VSAs and susceptibility to severe malaria. Children in Papua New Guinea showed little evidence of acquisition of cross-reactive antibodies following malaria. Var gene transcripts in Papua New Guinean children with severe malaria were similar to those reported from Africa.

Global Population Genomics of Two Subspecies of Cryptosporidium hominis during 500 Years of Evolution.

Cryptosporidiosis is a major global health problem and a primary cause of diarrhea, particularly in young children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The zoonotic Cryptosporidium parvum and anthroponotic Cryptosporidium hominis cause most human infections. Here, we present a comprehensive whole-genome study of C. hominis, comprising 114 isolates from 16 countries within five continents. We detect two lineages with distinct biology and demography, which diverged circa 500 years ago. We consider these lineages two subspecies and propose the names C. hominis hominis and C. hominis aquapotentis (gp60 subtype IbA10G2). In our study, C. h. hominis is almost exclusively represented by isolates from LMICs in Africa and Asia and appears to have undergone recent population contraction. In contrast, C. h. aquapotentis was found in high-income countries, mainly in Europe, North America, and Oceania, and appears to be expanding. Notably, C. h. aquapotentis is associated with high rates of direct human-to-human transmission, which may explain its success in countries with well-developed environmental sanitation infrastructure. Intriguingly, we detected genomic regions of introgression following secondary contact between the subspecies. This resulted in high diversity and divergence in genomic islands of putative virulence genes, including muc5 (CHUDEA2_430) and a hypothetical protein (CHUDEA6_5270). This diversity is maintained by balancing selection, suggesting a co-evolutionary arms race with the host. Finally, we find that recent gene flow from C. h. aquapotentis to C. h. hominis, likely associated with increased human migration, maybe driving the evolution of more virulent C. hominis variants.

VIVID: A Web Application for Variant Interpretation and Visualization in Multi-dimensional Analyses.

Large-scale comparative genomics- and population genetic studies generate enormous amounts of polymorphism data in the form of DNA variants. Ultimately, the goal of many of these studies is to associate genetic variants to phenotypes or fitness. We introduce VIVID, an interactive, user-friendly web application that integrates a wide range of approaches for encoding genotypic to phenotypic information in any organism or disease, from an individual or population, in three-dimensional (3D) space. It allows mutation mapping and annotation, calculation of interactions and conservation scores, prediction of harmful effects, analysis of diversity and selection, and 3D visualization of genotypic information encoded in Variant Call Format on AlphaFold2 protein models. VIVID enables the rapid assessment of genes of interest in the study of adaptive evolution and the genetic load, and it helps prioritizing targets for experimental validation. We demonstrate the utility of VIVID by exploring the evolutionary genetics of the parasitic protist Plasmodium falciparum, revealing geographic variation in the signature of balancing selection in potential targets of functional antibodies.

Serological assays to measure dimeric IgA antibodies in SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Current serological tests cannot differentiate between total immunoglobulin A (IgA) and dimeric IgA (dIgA) associated with mucosal immunity. Here, we describe two new assays, dIgA-ELISA and dIgA-multiplex bead assay (MBA), that utilize the preferential binding of dIgA to a chimeric form of secretory component, allowing the differentiation between dIgA and monomeric IgA. dIgA responses elicited through severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were measured in (i) a longitudinal panel, consisting of 74 samples (n = 20 individuals) from hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); (ii) a longitudinal panel, consisting of 96 samples (n = 10 individuals) from individuals with mild COVID-19; (iii) a cross-sectional panel with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with mild COVID-19 (n = 199) and (iv) pre-COVID-19 samples (n = 200). The dIgA-ELISA and dIgA-MBA demonstrated a specificity for dIgA of 99% and 98.5%, respectively. Analysis of dIgA responses in the longitudinal panels revealed that 70% (ELISA) and 50% (MBA) of patients elicited a dIgA response by day 20 after PCR diagnosis with a SARS-CoV-2 infection. Individuals with mild COVID-19 displayed increased levels of dIgA within the first 3 weeks after diagnosis but responses appeared to be short lived, compared with sustained IgA levels. However, in samples from hospitalized patients with COVID-19 we observed high and sustained levels of dIgA, up to 245 days after PCR diagnosis. Our results suggest that severe COVID-19 infections are associated with sustained levels of plasma dIgA compared with mild cases.

Global diversity and balancing selection of 23 leading Plasmodium falciparum candidate vaccine antigens.

Investigation of the diversity of malaria parasite antigens can help prioritize and validate them as vaccine candidates and identify the most common variants for inclusion in vaccine formulations. Studies of vaccine candidates of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, have focused on a handful of well-known antigens, while several others have never been studied. Here we examine the global diversity and population structure of leading vaccine candidate antigens of P. falciparum using the MalariaGEN Pf3K (version 5.1) resource, comprising more than 2600 genomes from 15 malaria endemic countries. A stringent variant calling pipeline was used to extract high quality antigen gene 'haplotypes' from the global dataset and a new R-package named VaxPack was used to streamline population genetic analyses. In addition, a newly developed algorithm that enables spatial averaging of selection pressure on 3D protein structures was applied to the dataset. We analysed the genes encoding 23 leading and novel candidate malaria vaccine antigens including csp, trap, eba175, ama1, rh5, and CelTOS. Our analysis shows that current malaria vaccine formulations are based on rare haplotypes and thus may have limited efficacy against natural parasite populations. High levels of diversity with evidence of balancing selection was detected for most of the erythrocytic and pre-erythrocytic antigens. Measures of natural selection were then mapped to 3D protein structures to predict targets of functional antibodies. For some antigens, geographical variation in the intensity and distribution of these signals on the 3D structure suggests adaptation to different human host or mosquito vector populations. This study provides an essential framework for the diversity of P. falciparum antigens to be considered in the design of the next generation of malaria vaccines.

The spatial signature of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections: quantifying the clustering of infections in cross-sectional surveys and cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decades, enormous successes have been achieved in reducing malaria burden globally. In Latin America, South East Asia, and the Western Pacific, many countries now pursue the goal of malaria elimination by 2030. It is widely acknowledged that Plasmodium spp. infections cluster spatially so that interventions need to be spatially informed, e.g. spatially targeted reactive case detection strategies. Here, the spatial signature method is introduced as a tool to quantify the distance around an index infection within which other infections significantly cluster. METHODS: Data were considered from cross-sectional surveys from Brazil, Thailand, Cambodia, and Solomon Islands, conducted between 2012 and 2018. Household locations were recorded by GPS and finger-prick blood samples from participants were tested for Plasmodium infection by PCR. Cohort studies from Brazil and Thailand with monthly sampling over a year from 2013 until 2014 were also included. The prevalence of PCR-confirmed infections was calculated at increasing distance around index infections (and growing time intervals in the cohort studies). Statistical significance was defined as prevalence outside of a 95%-quantile interval of a bootstrap null distribution after random re-allocation of locations of infections. RESULTS: Prevalence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections was elevated in close proximity around index infections and decreased with distance in most study sites, e.g. from 21.3% at 0 km to the global study prevalence of 6.4% for P. vivax in the Cambodian survey. In the cohort studies, the clustering decreased with longer time windows. The distance from index infections to a 50% reduction of prevalence ranged from 25 m to 3175 m, tending to shorter distances at lower global study prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial signatures of P. vivax and P. falciparum infections demonstrate spatial clustering across a diverse set of study sites, quantifying the distance within which the clustering occurs. The method offers a novel tool in malaria epidemiology, potentially informing reactive intervention strategies regarding radius choices of operations around detected infections and thus strengthening malaria elimination endeavours.

Plasmodium vivax spleen-dependent genes encode antigens associated with cytoadhesion and clinical protection.

Plasmodium vivax, the most widely distributed human malaria parasite, causes severe clinical syndromes despite low peripheral blood parasitemia. This conundrum is further complicated as cytoadherence in the microvasculature is still a matter of investigations. Previous reports in Plasmodium knowlesi, another parasite species shown to infect humans, demonstrated that variant genes involved in cytoadherence were dependent on the spleen for their expression. Hence, using a global transcriptional analysis of parasites obtained from spleen-intact and splenectomized monkeys, we identified 67 P. vivax genes whose expression was spleen dependent. To determine their role in cytoadherence, two Plasmodium falciparum transgenic lines expressing two variant proteins pertaining to VIR and Pv-FAM-D multigene families were used. Cytoadherence assays demonstrated specific binding to human spleen but not lung fibroblasts of the transgenic line expressing the VIR14 protein. To gain more insights, we expressed five P. vivax spleen-dependent genes as recombinant proteins, including members of three different multigene families (VIR, Pv-FAM-A, Pv-FAM-D), one membrane transporter (SECY), and one hypothetical protein (HYP1), and determined their immunogenicity and association with clinical protection in a prospective study of 383 children in Papua New Guinea. Results demonstrated that spleen-dependent antigens are immunogenic in natural infections and that antibodies to HYP1 are associated with clinical protection. These results suggest that the spleen plays a major role in expression of parasite proteins involved in cytoadherence and can reveal antigens associated with clinical protection, thus prompting a paradigm shift in P. vivax biology toward deeper studies of the spleen during infections.

Developing sero-diagnostic tests to facilitate Plasmodium vivax Serological Test-and-Treat approaches: modeling the balance between public health impact and overtreatment.

BACKGROUND: Eliminating Plasmodium vivax will require targeting the hidden liver-stage reservoir of hypnozoites. This necessitates new interventions balancing the benefit of reducing vivax transmission against the risk of over-treating some individuals with drugs which may induce haemolysis. By measuring antibodies to a panel of vivax antigens, a strategy of serological-testing-and-treatment (PvSeroTAT) can identify individuals with recent blood-stage infections who are likely to carry hypnozoites and target them for radical cure. This provides a potential solution to selectively treat the vivax reservoir with 8-aminoquinolines. METHODS: PvSeroTAT can identify likely hypnozoite carriers with ~80% sensitivity and specificity. Diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities ranging 50-100% were incorporated into a mathematical model of vivax transmission to explore how they affect the risks and benefits of different PvSeroTAT strategies involving hypnozoiticidal regimens. Risk was measured as the rate of overtreatment and benefit as reduction of community-level vivax transmission. RESULTS: Across a wide range of combinations of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, PvSeroTAT was substantially more effective than bloodstage mass screen and treat strategies and only marginally less effective than mass drug administration. The key test characteristic determining of the benefit of PvSeroTAT strategies is diagnostic sensitivity, with higher values leading to more hypnozoite carriers effectively treated and greater reductions in vivax transmission. The key determinant of risk is diagnostic specificity: higher specificity ensures that a lower proportion of uninfected individuals are unnecessarily treated with primaquine. These relationships are maintained in both moderate and low transmission settings (qPCR prevalence 10% and 2%). Increased treatment efficacy and adherence can partially compensate for lower test performance. Multiple rounds of PvSeroTAT with a lower performing test may lead to similar or higher reductions in vivax transmission than fewer rounds with a higher performing test, albeit with higher rate of overtreatment. CONCLUSIONS: At current performance, PvSeroTAT is predicted to be a safe and efficacious option for targeting the hypnozoite reservoir towards vivax elimination. P. vivax sero-diagnostic tests should aim for both high performance and ease of use in the field. The target product profiles informing such development should thus reflect the trade-offs between impact, overtreatment, and ease of programmatic implementation.

Naturally acquired antibody kinetics against Plasmodium vivax antigens in people from a low malaria transmission region in western Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) is the dominant Plasmodium spp. causing the disease malaria in low-transmission regions outside of Africa. These regions often feature high proportions of asymptomatic patients with sub-microscopic parasitaemia and relapses. Naturally acquired antibody responses are induced after Plasmodium infection, providing partial protection against high parasitaemia and clinical episodes. However, previous work has failed to address the presence and maintenance of such antibody responses to P. vivax particularly in low-transmission regions. METHODS: We followed 34 patients in western Thailand after symptomatic P. vivax infections to monitor antibody kinetics over 9 months, during which no recurrent infections occurred. We assessed total IgG, IgG subclass and IgM levels to up to 52 P. vivax proteins every 2-4 weeks using a multiplexed Luminex® assay and identified protein-specific variation in antibody longevity. Mathematical modelling was used to generate the estimated half-life of antibodies, long-, and short-lived antibody-secreting cells. RESULTS: Generally, an increase in antibody level was observed within 1-week post symptomatic infection, followed by an exponential decay of different rates. We observed mostly IgG1 dominance and IgG3 sub-dominance in this population. IgM responses followed similar kinetic patterns to IgG, with some proteins unexpectedly inducing long-lived IgM responses. We also monitored antibody responses against 27 IgG-immunogenic antigens in 30 asymptomatic individuals from a similar region. Our results demonstrate that most antigens induced robust and long-lived total IgG responses following asymptomatic infections in the absence of (detected) boosting infections. CONCLUSIONS: Our work provides new insights into the development and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity to P. vivax and will guide the potential use of serology to indicate immune status and/or identify populations at risk.

Emergence of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum with kelch13 C580Y mutations on the island of New Guinea.

The rapid and aggressive spread of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum carrying the C580Y mutation in the kelch13 gene is a growing threat to malaria elimination in Southeast Asia, but there is no evidence of their spread to other regions. We conducted cross-sectional surveys in 2016 and 2017 at two clinics in Wewak, Papua New Guinea (PNG) where we identified three infections caused by C580Y mutants among 239 genotyped clinical samples. One of these mutants exhibited the highest survival rate (6.8%) among all parasites surveyed in ring-stage survival assays (RSA) for artemisinin. Analyses of kelch13 flanking regions, and comparisons of deep sequencing data from 389 clinical samples from PNG, Indonesian Papua and Western Cambodia, suggested an independent origin of the Wewak C580Y mutation, showing that the mutants possess several distinctive genetic features. Identity by descent (IBD) showed that multiple portions of the mutants' genomes share a common origin with parasites found in Indonesian Papua, comprising several mutations within genes previously associated with drug resistance, such as mdr1, ferredoxin, atg18 and pnp. These findings suggest that a P. falciparum lineage circulating on the island of New Guinea has gradually acquired a complex ensemble of variants, including kelch13 C580Y, which have affected the parasites' drug sensitivity. This worrying development reinforces the need for increased surveillance of the evolving parasite populations on the island, to contain the spread of resistance.

Comparison of total immunoglobulin G antibody responses to different protein fragments of Plasmodium vivax Reticulocyte binding protein 2b.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax is emerging as the dominant and prevalent species causing malaria in near-elimination settings outside of Africa. Hypnozoites, the dormant liver stage parasite of P. vivax, are undetectable to any currently available diagnostic test, yet are a major reservoir for transmission. Advances have been made to harness the naturally acquired immune response to identify recent exposure to P. vivax blood-stage parasites and, therefore, infer the presence of hypnozoites. This in-development diagnostic is currently able to detect infections within the last 9-months with 80% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Further work is required to optimize protein expression and protein constructs used for antibody detection. METHODS: The antibody response against the top performing predictor of recent infection, P. vivax reticulocyte binding protein 2b (PvRBP2b), was tested against multiple fragments of different sizes and from different expression systems. The IgG induced against the recombinant PvRBP2b fragments in P. vivax infected individuals was measured at the time of infection and in a year-long observational cohort; both conducted in Thailand. RESULTS: The antibody responses to some but not all different sized fragments of PvRBP2b protein are highly correlated with each other, significantly higher 1-week post-P. vivax infection, and show potential for use as predictors of recent P. vivax infection. CONCLUSIONS: To achieve P. vivax elimination goals, novel diagnostics are required to aid in detection of hidden parasite reservoirs. PvRBP2b was previously shown to be the top candidate for single-antigen classification of recent P. vivax exposure and here, it is concluded that several alternative recombinant PvRBP2b fragments can achieve equal sensitivity and specificity at predicting recent P. vivax exposure.

Acquisition of antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax antigens in pregnant women living in a low malaria transmission area of Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women have increased susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum malaria and acquire protective antibodies over successive pregnancies. Most studies that investigated malaria antibody responses in pregnant women are from high transmission areas in sub-Saharan Africa, while reports from Latin America are scarce and inconsistent. The present study sought to explore the development of antibodies against P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax antigens in pregnant women living in a low transmission area in the Brazilian Amazon. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, plasma samples from 408 pregnant women (of whom 111 were infected with P. falciparum, 96 had infections with P. falciparum and P. vivax, and 201 had no Plasmodium infection) were used to measure antibody levels. Levels of IgG and opsonizing antibody to pregnancy-specific variant surface antigens (VSAs) on infected erythrocytes (IEs), 10 recombinant VAR2CSA Duffy binding like (DBL domains), 10 non-pregnancy-specific P. falciparum merozoite antigens, and 10 P. vivax antigens were measured by flow cytometry, ELISA, and multiplex assays. Antibody levels and seropositivity among the groups were compared. RESULTS: Antibodies to VSAs on P. falciparum IEs were generally low but were higher in currently infected women and women with multiple P. falciparum episodes over pregnancy. Many women (21%-69%) had antibodies against each individual VAR2CSA DBL domain, and antibodies to DBLs correlated with each other (r ≥ 0.55, p < 0.0001), but not with antibody to VSA or history of infection. Infection with either malaria species was associated with higher seropositivity rate for antibodies against P. vivax proteins, adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) ranged from 5.6 (3.2, 9.7), p < 0.0001 for PVDBPII-Sal1 to 15.7 (8.3, 29.7), p < 0.0001 for PvTRAg_2. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnant Brazilian women had low levels of antibodies to pregnancy-specific VSAs that increased with exposure. They frequently recognized both VAR2CSA DBL domains and P. vivax antigens, but only the latter varied with infection. Apparent antibody prevalence is highly dependent on the assay platform used.

Prevalence and force of Plasmodium vivax blood-stage infection and associated clinical malaria burden in the Brazilian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiology of malaria through the molecular force of the blood-stage infection of Plasmodium vivax (molFOB) may provide a detailed assessment of malaria transmission. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we investigated risk factors and spatial-temporal patterns of incidence of Plasmodium infection and clinical malaria episodes in three peri-urban communities of Manaus, Western Brazilian Amazon. METHODS: Monthly samples were collected in a cohort of 1,274 individuals between April 2013 and March 2014. DNA samples were subject to Plasmodium species. molFOB was calculated by counting the number of genotypes observed on each visit, which had not been present in the preceding two visits and adjusting these counts by the respective times-at-risk. FINDINGS: Respectively, 77.8% and 97.2% of the population remained free of P. vivax and P. falciparum infection. Expected heterozygosity for P. vivax was 0.69 for MSP1_F3 and 0.86 for MS2. Multiplicity of infection in P. vivax was close to the value of 1. The season was associated with P. vivax positivity [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.6 (1.9-5.7)] and clinical disease [aHR 10.6 (2.4-47.2)]. P. falciparum infection was associated with previous malarial episodes [HR 9.7 (4.5-20.9)]. Subjects who reported possession of a bed net [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.6 (1.2-2.2)] or previous malaria episodes [IRR 3.0 (2.0-4.5)] were found to have significantly higher P. vivax molFOB. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Overall, P. vivax infection prevailed in the area and infections were mostly observed as monoclonal. Previous malaria episodes were associated with significantly higher P. vivax molFOB.

Kinetics of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Response and Serological Estimation of Time Since Infection.

BACKGROUND: Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a complex antibody response that varies by orders of magnitude between individuals and over time. METHODS: We developed a multiplex serological test for measuring antibodies to 5 SARS-CoV-2 antigens and the spike proteins of seasonal coronaviruses. We measured antibody responses in cohorts of hospitalized patients and healthcare workers followed for up to 11 months after symptoms. A mathematical model of antibody kinetics was used to quantify the duration of antibody responses. Antibody response data were used to train algorithms for estimating time since infection. RESULTS: One year after symptoms, we estimate that 36% (95% range, 11%-94%) of anti-Spike immunoglobulin G (IgG) remains, 31% (95% range, 9%-89%) anti-RBD IgG remains, and 7% (1%-31%) of anti-nucleocapsid IgG remains. The multiplex assay classified previous infections into time intervals of 0-3 months, 3-6 months, and 6-12 months. This method was validated using data from a seroprevalence survey in France, demonstrating that historical SARS-CoV-2 transmission can be reconstructed using samples from a single survey. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to diagnosing previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, multiplex serological assays can estimate the time since infection, which can be used to reconstruct past epidemics.

Fine-scale Spatiotemporal Mapping of Asymptomatic and Clinical Plasmodium falciparum Infections: Epidemiological Evidence for Targeted Malaria Elimination Interventions.

BACKGROUND: A detailed understanding of the contribution of the asymptomatic Plasmodium reservoir to the occurrence of clinical malaria at individual and community levels is needed to guide effective elimination interventions. This study investigated the relationship between asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum carriage and subsequent clinical malaria episodes in the Dielmo and Ndiop villages in Senegal. METHODS: The study used a total of 2792 venous and capillary blood samples obtained from asymptomatic individuals and clinical malaria datasets collected from 2013 to 2016. Mapping, spatial clustering of infections, and risk analysis were performed using georeferenced households. RESULTS: High incidences of clinical malaria episodes were observed to occur predominantly in households of asymptomatic P falciparum carriers. A statistically significant association was found between asymptomatic carriage in a household and subsequent episode of clinical malaria occurring in that household for each individual year (P values were 0.0017, 6 × 10-5, 0.005, and 0.008 for the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 respectively) and the combined years (P = 8.5 × 10-8), which was not found at the individual level. In both villages, no significant patterns of spatial clustering of P falciparum clinical cases were found, but there was a higher risk of clinical episodes <25 m from asymptomatic individuals in Ndiop attributable to clustering within households. CONCLUSION: The findings provide strong epidemiological evidence linking the asymptomatic P falciparum reservoir to clinical malaria episodes at household scale in Dielmo and Ndiop villagers. This argues for a likely success of a mass testing and treatment intervention to move towards the elimination of malaria in the villages of Dielmo and Ndiop.