Evaluating the importance of individual heterogeneity in reproduction to Weddell seal population dynamics using integral projection models.

Identifying and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demographic models is important for estimating population-level vital rates and identifying diverse life-history strategies, but much less is known about how this individual heterogeneity influences population dynamics. We aimed to understand how the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproductive and survival rates influenced population dynamics using vital rates from a Weddell seal population by altering the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction, which also altered the distribution of individual survival rates through the incorporation of our estimate of the correlation between the two rates and assessing resulting changes in population growth. We constructed an integral projection model (IPM) structured by age and reproductive state using estimates of vital rates for a long-lived mammal that has recently been shown to exhibit large individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Using output from the IPM, we evaluated how population dynamics changed with different underlying distributions of unobserved individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Results indicate that the changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction cause very small changes in the population growth rate and other population metrics. The largest difference in the estimated population growth rate resulting from changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity was less than 1%. Our work highlights the differing importance of individual heterogeneity at the population level compared to the individual level. Although individual heterogeneity in reproduction may result in large differences in the lifetime fitness of individuals, changing the proportion of above- or below-average breeders in the population results in much smaller differences in annual population growth rate. For a long-lived mammal with stable and high adult-survival that gives birth to a single offspring, individual heterogeneity in reproduction has a limited effect on population dynamics. We posit that the limited effect of individual heterogeneity on population dynamics may be due to canalization of life-history traits.

Contact Tracing and Exposure Investigation in Response to the First Case of Monkeypox Virus Infection in the United States During the 2022 Global Monkeypox Outbreak.

BACKGROUND: In May 2022, the first case of monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection in the United States in the current global outbreak was identified. As part of the public health and health care facility response, a contact tracing and exposure investigation was done. OBJECTIVE: To describe the contact tracing, exposure identification, risk stratification, administration of postexposure prophylaxis (PEP), and exposure period monitoring for contacts of the index patient, including evaluation of persons who developed symptoms possibly consistent with MPXV infection. DESIGN: Contact tracing and exposure investigation. SETTING: Multiple health care facilities and community settings in Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS: Persons identified as contacts of the index patient. INTERVENTION: Contact notification, risk stratification, and symptom monitoring; PEP administration in a subset of contacts. MEASUREMENTS: Epidemiologic and clinical data collected through standard surveillance procedures at each facility and then aggregated and analyzed. RESULTS: There were 37 community and 129 health care contacts identified, with 4 at high risk, 49 at intermediate risk, and 113 at low or uncertain risk. Fifteen health care contacts developed symptoms during the monitoring period. Three met criteria for MPXV testing, with negative results. Two community contacts developed symptoms. Neither met criteria for MPXV testing, and neither showed disease progression consistent with monkeypox. Among 4 persons with high-risk exposures offered PEP, 3 elected to receive PEP. Among 10 HCP with intermediate-risk exposures for which PEP was offered as part of informed clinical decision making, 2 elected to receive PEP. No transmissions were identified at the conclusion of the 21-day monitoring period, despite the delay in recognition of monkeypox in the index patient. LIMITATION: Descriptions of exposures are subject to recall bias, which affects risk stratification. CONCLUSION: In a contact tracing investigation involving 166 community and health care contacts of a patient with monkeypox, no secondary cases were identified. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species' life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Sources of variation in maternal allocation in a long-lived mammal.

Life history theory predicts allocation of energy to reproduction varies with maternal age, but additional maternal features may be important to the allocation of energy to reproduction. We aimed to characterize age-specific variation in maternal allocation and assess the relationship between maternal allocation and other static and dynamic maternal features. Mass measurements of 531 mothers and pups were used with Bayesian hierarchical models to explain the relationship between diverse maternal attributes and both the proportion of mass allocated by Weddell seal mothers, and the efficiency of mass transfer from mother to pup during lactation as well as the weaning mass of pups. Our results demonstrated that maternal mass was strongly and positively associated with the relative reserves allocated by a mother and a pup's weaning mass but that the efficiency of mass transfer declines with maternal parturition mass. Birthdate was positively associated with proportion mass allocation and pup weaning mass, but mass transfer efficiency was predicted to be highest at the mean birthdate. The relative allocation of maternal reserves declined with maternal age but the efficiency of mass transfer to pups increases, suggestive of selective disappearance of poor-quality mothers. These findings highlight the importance of considering multiple maternal features when assessing variation in maternal allocation.

Development and deployment of tools for rapid response notification of Monkeypox exposure, exposure risk assessment and stratification, and symptom monitoring.

OBJECTIVES: Public health authorities recommend symptom monitoring of healthcare personnel (HCP) after defined exposures to monkeypox. We report on the rapid development and implementation of mobile responsive survey solutions for notification of possible exposure, exposure risk assessment and stratification, and symptom monitoring. SETTING: An academic health center in Boston, Massachusetts, after admission of first diagnosed case of monkeypox in the United States during the current global outbreak. PARTICIPANTS: Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) design and programmers, infection control, occupational health, and emergency preparedness specialists, and HCP with possible exposure to monkeypox. INTERVENTIONS: Design and deployment of REDCap tools to identify HCP with possible exposure to monkeypox, to perform exposure risk assessment and stratification for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP), and to conduct symptom monitoring during the exposure window. Project enhancements included dashboards for HCP tracking and short message service (SMS text) reminders for symptom monitoring. RESULTS: Tools to support the contact tracing and exposure investigation were deployed within 24 hours of identification of a patient with suspected monkeypox, with the full suite in production within 4 days of confirmation of the monkeypox diagnosis. Clinical follow-up of HCP was integrated into the design, and real-time versioning allowed for improvements in HCP symptom monitoring compliance and enhanced tracking. CONCLUSIONS: During the current monkeypox outbreak, timely and comprehensive evaluation of potential HCP exposures is necessary but presents logistical challenges. Rapid development of monkeypox-specific solutions using REDCap facilitated flexibility in design and approach, and integration of targeted clinical support enhanced functionality.