RESUMO
During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many countries opted for strict public health measures, including closing schools. After some time, they have started relaxing some of those restrictions. To avoid overwhelming health systems, predictions for the number of new COVID-19 cases need to be considered when choosing a school reopening strategy. Using a computer simulation based on a stochastic compartmental model that includes a heterogeneous and dynamic network, we analyse different strategies to reopen schools in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area, including one similar to the official reopening plan. Our model allows us to describe different types of relations between people, each type with a different infectiousness. Based on our simulations and model assumptions, our results indicate that reopening schools with all students at once has a big impact on the number of new COVID-19 cases, which could cause a collapse of the health system. On the other hand, our results also show that a controlled school reopening could possibly avoid the collapse of the health system, depending on how people follow sanitary measures. We estimate that postponing the schools' return date for after a vaccine becomes available may save tens of thousands of lives just in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area compared to a controlled reopening considering a worst-case scenario. We also discuss our model constraints and the uncertainty of its parameters.
Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Instituições Acadêmicas/tendências , Brasil/epidemiologia , COVID-19/classificação , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/transmissão , Cidades/epidemiologia , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Processos EstocásticosRESUMO
A two-dimensional class of mean-field models serving as a minimal frame to study long-range interaction in two space dimensions is considered. In the case of an anisotropic mixed attractive-repulsive interaction, an initially spatially homogeneous cold fluid is dynamically unstable and evolves towards a quasi-stationary state in which the less energetic particles get trapped into clusters forming a Bravais-like lattice, mimicking a crystalline state. Superimposed to this, one observes in symplectic numerical simulations a flux of slightly more energetic particles channeling through this crystalline background. The resultant system combines the rigidity features of a solid, as particles from a displaced core are shown to snap back into place after a transient, and the dynamical diffusive features of a liquid for the fraction of channeling and free particles. The combination of solid and liquid properties is numerically observed here within the classical context. The quantum transposition of the model may be experimentally reached using the latest ultracold atoms techniques to generate long-range interactions.
RESUMO
Neste estudo, 308 amostras de fetos mumificados foram testadas para parvovírus suíno (PPV), circovírus suíno tipos 2 e 3 (PCV2 e PCV3) e leptospiras patogênicas. A idade gestacional no momento da perda gestacional e a frequência da mumificação fetal de acordo com a ordem de parto também foram investigadas. As amostras foram coletadas em granjas comerciais de criação de suínos da região sul do Brasil que apresentassem taxas de mumificação fetal igual ou maiores a 2,5%. Fragmentos de pulmão, rim, fígado e coração de fetos suínos mumificados foram coletados para análise molecular. Resultados da PCR foram classificados de acordo com a região de origem das amostras, tendo Santa Catarina, Paraná e Rio Grande do Sul contabilizado 87 (28,25%), 89 (28,90%) e 132 (42,86%) do total de amostras de fetos suínos mumificados, respectivamente. Coinfecções foram observadas na maioria dos casos e PCV3 foi o agente mais prevalente detectado, encontrado em 298 amostras (96,75%). A maioria das perdas gestacionais foi observada entre 50 e 70 dias de gestação (168; 54,5%) e a mumificação fetal não foi associada à ordem de parto das matrizes. Os achados sugerem que as altas taxas de fetos suínos mumificados na região Sul do Brasil podem ser explicadas pela infecção com esses agentes virais.(AU)