Ability of the ash dieback pathogen to reproduce and to induce damage on its host are controlled by different environmental parameters.

Ash dieback, induced by an invasive ascomycete, Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, has emerged in the late 1990s as a severe disease threatening ash populations in Europe. Future prospects for ash are improved by the existence of individuals with natural genetic resistance or tolerance to the disease and by limited disease impact in many environmental conditions where ash is common. Nevertheless, it was suggested that, even in those conditions, ash trees are infected and enable pathogen transmission. We studied the influence of climate and local environment on the ability of H. fraxineus to infect, be transmitted and cause damage on its host. We showed that healthy carriers, i.e. individuals showing no dieback but carrying H. fraxineus, exist and may play a significant role in ash dieback epidemiology. The environment strongly influenced H. fraxineus with different parameters being important depending on the life cycle stage. The ability of H. fraxineus to establish on ash leaves and to reproduce on the leaf debris in the litter (rachises) mainly depended on total precipitation in July-August and was not influenced by local tree cover. By contrast, damage to the host, and in particular shoot mortality was significantly reduced by high summer temperature in July-August and by high autumn average temperature. As a consequence, in many situations, ash trees are infected and enable H. fraxineus transmission while showing limited or even no damage. We also observed a decreasing trend of severity (leaf necrosis and shoot mortality probability) with the time of disease presence in a plot that could be significant for the future of ash dieback.

Surprising low diversity of the plant pathogen Phytophthora in Amazonian forests.

The genus Phytophthora represents a group of plant pathogens with broad global distribution. The majority of them cause the collar and root-rot of diverse plant species. Little is known about Phytophthora communities in forest ecosystems, especially in the Neotropical forests where natural enemies could maintain the huge plant diversity via negative density dependence. We characterized the diversity of soil-borne Phytophthora communities in the North French Guiana rainforest and investigated how they are structured by host identity and environmental factors. In this little-explored habitat, 250 soil cores were sampled from 10 plots hosting 10 different plant families across three forest environments (Terra Firme, Seasonally Flooded and White Sand). Phytophthora diversity was studied using a baiting approach and metabarcoding (High-Throughput Sequencing) on environmental DNA extracted from both soil samples and baiting-leaves. These three approaches revealed very similar communities, characterized by an unexpected low diversity of Phytophthora species, with the dominance of two cryptic species close to Phytophthora heveae. As expected, the Phytophthora community composition of the French Guiana rainforest was significantly impacted by the host plant family and environment. However, these plant pathogen communities are very small and are dominated by generalist species, questioning their potential roles as drivers of plant diversity in these Amazonian forests.

The genetics of exapted resistance to two exotic pathogens in pedunculate oak.

Exotic pathogens cause severe damage in natural populations in the absence of coevolutionary dynamics with their hosts. However, some resistance to such pathogens may occur in naive populations. The objective of this study was to investigate the genetics of this so-called 'exapted' resistance to two pathogens of Asian origin (Erysiphe alphitoides and Phytophthora cinnamomi) in European oak. Host-pathogen compatibility was assessed by recording infection success and pathogen growth in a full-sib family of Quercus robur under controlled and natural conditions. Two high-resolution genetic maps anchored on the reference genome were used to study the genetic architecture of resistance and to identify positional candidate genes. Two genomic regions, each containing six strong and stable quantitative trait loci (QTLs) accounting for 12-19% of the phenotypic variation, were mainly associated with E. alphitoides infection. Candidate genes, especially genes encoding receptor-like-kinases and galactinol synthases, were identified in these regions. The three QTLs associated with P. cinnamomi infection did not colocate with QTLs found for E. alphitoides. These findings provide evidence that exapted resistance to E. alphitoides and P. cinnamomi is present in Q. robur and suggest that the underlying molecular mechanisms involve genes encoding proteins with extracellular signaling functions.

Can Oak Powdery Mildew Severity be Explained by Indirect Effects of Climate on the Composition of the Erysiphe Pathogenic Complex?

Coinfection by several pathogens is increasingly recognized as an important feature in the epidemiology and evolution of plant fungal pathogens. Oak mildew is induced by two closely related Erysiphe invasive species (Erysiphe alphitoides and E. quercicola) which differ in their mode of overwintering. We investigated how climate influences the co-occurrence of the two species in oak young stands and whether this is important for the disease epidemiology. We studied the frequency of flag-shoots (i.e., shoots developing from infected buds, usually associated with E. quercicola) in 95 oak regenerations over a 6-year period. Additionally, in 2012 and 2013, the oak mildew severity and the two Erysiphe spp. relative frequencies were determined in both spring and autumn in 51 regenerations and 43 1-year-old plantations of oaks. Both the frequency of flag-shoots and the proportion of Erysiphe lesions with E. quercicola presence were related to climate. We showed that survival of E. quercicola was improved after mild winters, with increase of both the flag-shoot frequency and the proportion of Erysiphe lesions with E. quercicola presence in spring. However, disease severity was not related to any complementarity effect between the two Erysiphe spp. causing oak powdery mildew. By contrast, increased E. alphitoides prevalence in spring was associated with higher oak mildew severity in autumn. Our results point out the critical role of between-season transmission and primary inoculum to explain disease dynamics which could be significant in a climate-warming context.

Genetic Diversity and Origins of the Homoploid-Type Hybrid Phytophthora ×alni.

Assessing the process that gives rise to hybrid pathogens is central to understanding the evolution of emerging plant diseases. Phytophthora ×alni, a pathogen of alder, results from the homoploid hybridization of two related species, Phytophthora uniformis and Phytophthora ×multiformis Describing the genetic characteristics of P ×alni should help us understand how reproductive mechanisms and historical processes shaped the population structure of this emerging hybrid pathogen. The population genetic structure of P ×alni and the relationship with its parental species were investigated using 12 microsatellites and one mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) marker on a European collection of 379 isolates. Populations of P ×alni were dominated by one multilocus genotype (MLG). The frequency of this dominant MLG increased after the disease emergence together with a decline in diversity, suggesting that it was favored by a genetic mechanism such as drift or selection. Combined microsatellite and mtDNA results confirmed that P ×alni originated from multiple hybridization events that involved different genotypes of the progenitors. Our detailed analyses point to a geographic structure that mirrors that observed for P. uniformis in Europe. The study provides more insights on the contribution of P. uniformis, an invasive species in Europe, to the emergence of Phytophthora-induced alder decline. IMPORTANCE: Our study describes an original approach to assess the population genetics of polyploid organisms using microsatellite markers. By studying the parental subgenomes present in the interspecific hybrid P. ×alni, we were able to assess the geographical and temporal structure of European populations of the hybrid, shedding new light on the evolution of an emerging plant pathogen. In turn, the study of the parental subgenomes permitted us to assess some genetic characteristics of the parental species of P. ×alni, P. uniformis, and P ×multiformis, which are seldom sampled in nature. The subgenomes found in P. ×alni represent a picture of the "fossilized" diversity of the parental species.

Périgord black truffle genome uncovers evolutionary origins and mechanisms of symbiosis.

The Périgord black truffle (Tuber melanosporum Vittad.) and the Piedmont white truffle dominate today's truffle market. The hypogeous fruiting body of T. melanosporum is a gastronomic delicacy produced by an ectomycorrhizal symbiont endemic to calcareous soils in southern Europe. The worldwide demand for this truffle has fuelled intense efforts at cultivation. Identification of processes that condition and trigger fruit body and symbiosis formation, ultimately leading to efficient crop production, will be facilitated by a thorough analysis of truffle genomic traits. In the ectomycorrhizal Laccaria bicolor, the expansion of gene families may have acted as a 'symbiosis toolbox'. This feature may however reflect evolution of this particular taxon and not a general trait shared by all ectomycorrhizal species. To get a better understanding of the biology and evolution of the ectomycorrhizal symbiosis, we report here the sequence of the haploid genome of T. melanosporum, which at approximately 125 megabases is the largest and most complex fungal genome sequenced so far. This expansion results from a proliferation of transposable elements accounting for approximately 58% of the genome. In contrast, this genome only contains approximately 7,500 protein-coding genes with very rare multigene families. It lacks large sets of carbohydrate cleaving enzymes, but a few of them involved in degradation of plant cell walls are induced in symbiotic tissues. The latter feature and the upregulation of genes encoding for lipases and multicopper oxidases suggest that T. melanosporum degrades its host cell walls during colonization. Symbiosis induces an increased expression of carbohydrate and amino acid transporters in both L. bicolor and T. melanosporum, but the comparison of genomic traits in the two ectomycorrhizal fungi showed that genetic predispositions for symbiosis-'the symbiosis toolbox'-evolved along different ways in ascomycetes and basidiomycetes.

Mate Finding, Sexual Spore Production, and the Spread of Fungal Plant Parasites.

Sexual reproduction and dispersal are often coupled in organisms mixing sexual and asexual reproduction, such as fungi. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of mate limitation on the spreading speed of fungal plant parasites. Starting from a simple model with two coupled partial differential equations, we take advantage of the fact that we are interested in the dynamics over large spatial and temporal scales to reduce the model to a single equation. We obtain a simple expression for speed of spread, accounting for both sexual and asexual reproduction. Taking Black Sigatoka disease of banana plants as a case study, the model prediction is in close agreement with the actual spreading speed (100 km per year), whereas a similar model without mate limitation predicts a wave speed one order of magnitude greater. We discuss the implications of these results to control parasites in which sexual reproduction and dispersal are intrinsically coupled.

Rising Out of the Ashes: Additive Genetic Variation for Crown and Collar Resistance to Hymenoscyphus fraxineus in Fraxinus excelsior.

Since the early 1990s, ash dieback due to the invasive ascomycete Hymenoscyphus fraxineus is threatening Fraxinus excelsior in most of its natural range. Previous studies reported significant levels of genetic variability in susceptibility in F. excelsior either in field or inoculation experiments. The present study was based on a field experiment planted in 1995, 15 years before onset of the disease. Crown and collar status were monitored on 777 trees from 23 open-pollinated progenies originating from three French provenances. Health status was modeled using a Bayesian approach where spatiotemporal effects were explicitly taken into account. Moderate narrow-sense heritability was found for crown dieback (h2 = 0.42). This study is first to show that resistance at the collar level is also heritable (h2 = 0.49 for collar lesions prevalence and h2 = 0.42 for their severity) and that there is significant genetic correlation (r = 0.40) between the severities of crown and collar symptoms. There was no evidence for differences between provenances. Family effects were detected, but computing individual breeding values showed that most of the genetic variation lies within families. In agreement with previous reports, early flushing correlates with healthier crown. Implications of these results in disease management and breeding are discussed.

Compartmentalized and contrasted response of ectomycorrhizal and soil fungal communities of Scots pine forests along elevation gradients in France and Spain.

Fungi are principal actors of forest soils implied in many ecosystem services and the mediation of tree's responses. Forecasting fungal responses to environmental changes is necessary for maintaining forest productivity, although our partial understanding of how abiotic and biotic factors affect fungal communities is restricting the predictions. We examined fungal communities of Pinus sylvestris along elevation gradients to check potential responses to climate change-associated factors. Fungi of roots and soils were analysed at a regional scale, by using a high-throughput sequencing approach. Overall soil fungal richness increased with pH, whereas it did not vary with climate. However, when representative sub-assemblages, i.e. Ascomycetes/Basidiomycetes, and families were analysed, they differentially answered to climatic and edaphic variables. This response was dependent on where they settled, i.e. soil versus roots, and/or on their lifestyle, i.e. mycorrhizal or not, suggesting different potential functional weights within the community. Our results revealed a highly compartmentalized and contrasted response of fungal communities in forest soils. The different response of fungal sub-assemblages indicated a range of possible selective direct and indirect (i.e. via host) impacts of climatic variations on these communities, of unknown functional consequences, that helps in understanding potential fungal responses under future global change scenarios.

Modeling climate impact on an emerging disease, the Phytophthora alni-induced alder decline.

Alder decline caused by Phytophthora alni is one of the most important emerging diseases in natural ecosystems in Europe, where it has threatened riparian ecosystems for the past 20 years. Environmental factors, such as mean site temperature and soil characteristics, play an important role in the occurrence of the disease. The objective of the present work was to model and forecast the effect of environment on the severity of alder Phytophthora outbreaks, and to determine whether recent climate change might explain the disease emergence. Two alder sites networks in NE and SW France were surveyed to assess the crown health of trees; the oomycete soil inoculum was also monitored in the NE network. The main factors explaining the temporal annual variation in alder crown decline or crown recovery were the mean previous winter and previous summer temperatures. Both low winter temperatures and high summer temperatures were unfavorable to the disease. Cold winters promoted tree recovery because of poor survival of the pathogen, while hot summer temperature limited the incidence of tree decline. An SIS model explaining the dynamics of the P. alni-induced alder decline was developed using the data of the NE site network and validated using the SW site network. This model was then used to simulate the frequency of declining alder over time with historical climate data. The last 40 years' weather conditions have been generally favorable to the establishment of the disease, indicating that others factors may be implicated in its emergence. The model, however, showed that the climate of SW France was much more favorable for the disease than that of the Northeast, because it seldom limited the overwintering of the pathogen. Depending on the European area, climate change could either enhance or decrease the severity of the alder decline.

Climatic variations explain annual fluctuations in French Périgord black truffle wholesale markets but do not explain the decrease in black truffle production over the last 48 years.

Production of the black truffle (Tuber melanosporum Vittad.) has experienced a decline in France over the last century. Different sociological factors as well as climate change have been suggested as possible explanations for this decline. The aims of this study were to assess the effects of annual climatic variations on black truffle sales by analysing reliable data. Over the past 25 years, almost 90% of French truffle sales occurred in the southeastern region of France and, despite a decrease in southwestern France, for the last 25 years, sales were stable for France as a whole. An analysis of the two main southeastern wholesale markets (Richerenches and Carpentras) revealed that the main factor explaining the huge annual variations was the cumulative hydric balance from May to August of the year n. For the first time, frost days were also identified as an important factor in Richerenches. Using the model established for the past 25 years and the climatic data for the Richerenches and Carpentras basins, the truffle sales would have been stable from 1965 to nowadays. This simulation suggested that the production decline observed since 48 years could be attributed more to the change of rural world than to the climatic changes. The stability of production or the slight increase observed during the last 25 years could reflect the input of truffle orchards recently planted.

Climate acts as an environmental filter to plant pathogens.

Climate shapes the distribution of plant-associated microbes such as mycorrhizal and endophytic fungi. However, the role of climate in plant pathogen community assembly is less understood. Here, we explored the role of climate in the assembly of Phytophthora communities at >250 sites along a latitudinal gradient from Spain to northern Sweden and an altitudinal gradient from the Spanish Pyrenees to lowland areas. Communities were detected by ITS sequencing of river filtrates. Mediation analysis supported the role of climate in the biogeography of Phytophthora and ruled out other environmental factors such as geography or tree diversity. Comparisons of functional and species diversity showed that environmental filtering dominated over competitive exclusion in Europe. Temperature and precipitation acted as environmental filters at different extremes of the gradients. In northern regions, winter temperatures acted as an environmental filter on Phytophthora community assembly, selecting species adapted to survive low minimum temperatures. In southern latitudes, a hot dry climate was the main environmental filter, resulting in communities dominated by drought-tolerant Phytophthora species with thick oospore walls, a high optimum temperature for growth, and a high maximum temperature limit for growth. By taking a community ecology approach, we show that the establishment of Phytophthora plant pathogens in Europe is mainly restricted by cold temperatures.

The ADnet Bayesian belief network for alder decline: Integrating empirical data and expert knowledge.

The globalization in plant material trading has caused the emergence of invasive pests in many ecosystems, such as the alder pathogen Phytophthora ×alni in European riparian forests. Due to the ecological importance of alder to the functioning of rivers and the increasing incidence of P. ×alni-induced alder decline, effective and accessible decision tools are required to help managers and stakeholders control the disease. This study proposes a Bayesian belief network methodology to integrate diverse information on the factors affecting the survival and infection ability of P. ×alni in riparian habitats to help predict and manage disease incidence. The resulting Alder Decline Network (ADnet) management tool integrates information about alder decline from scientific literature, expert knowledge and empirical data. Expert knowledge was gathered through elicitation techniques that included 19 experts from 12 institutions and 8 countries. An original dataset was created covering 1189 European locations, from which P. ×alni occurrence was modeled based on bioclimatic variables. ADnet uncertainty was evaluated through its sensitivity to changes in states and three scenario analyses. The ADnet tool indicated that mild temperatures and high precipitation are key factors favoring pathogen survival. Flood timing, water velocity, and soil type have the strongest influence on disease incidence. ADnet can support ecosystem management decisions and knowledge transfer to address P. ×alni-induced alder decline at local or regional levels across Europe. Management actions such as avoiding the planting of potentially infected trees or removing man-made structures that increase the flooding period in disease-affected sites could decrease the incidence of alder disease in riparian forests and limit its spread. The coverage of the ADnet tool can be expanded by updating data on the pathogen's occurrence, particularly from its distributional limits. Research on the role of genetic variability in alder susceptibility and pathogen virulence may also help improve future ADnet versions.

Strong genetic differentiation between North American and European populations of Phytophthora alni subsp. uniformis.

Alder decline caused by Phytophthora alni has been one of the most important diseases of natural ecosystems in Europe during the last 20 years. The emergence of P. alni subsp. alni -the pathogen responsible for the epidemic-is linked to an interspecific hybridization event between two parental species: P. alni subsp. multiformis and P. alni subsp. uniformis. One of the parental species, P. alni subsp. uniformis, has been isolated in several European countries and, recently, in North America. The objective of this work was to assess the level of genetic diversity, the population genetic structure, and the putative reproduction mode and mating system of P. alni subsp. uniformis. Five new polymorphic microsatellite markers were used to contrast both geographical populations. The study comprised 71 isolates of P. alni subsp. uniformis collected from eight European countries and 10 locations in North America. Our results revealed strong differences between continental populations (Fst = 0.88; Rst = 0.74), with no evidence for gene flow. European isolates showed extremely low genetic diversity compared with the North American collection. Selfing appears to be the predominant mating system in both continental collections. The results suggest that the European P. alni subsp. uniformis population is most likely alien and derives from the introduction of a few individuals, whereas the North American population probably is an indigenous population.

Population structure and diversity of the needle pathogen Dothistroma pini suggests human-mediated movement in Europe.

Dothistroma needle blight (DNB) is an important disease of Pinus species that can be caused by one of two distinct but closely related pathogens; Dothistroma septosporum and Dothistroma pini. Dothistroma septosporum has a wide geographic distribution and is relatively well-known. In contrast, D. pini is known only from the United States and Europe, and there is a distinct lack of knowledge regarding its population structure and genetic diversity. The recent development of 16 microsatellite markers for D. pini provided an opportunity to investigate the diversity, structure, and mode of reproduction for populations collected over a period of 12 years, on eight different hosts in Europe. In total, 345 isolates from Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Romania, Western Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, and Ukraine were screened using microsatellite and species-specific mating type markers. A total of 109 unique multilocus haplotypes were identified and structure analyses suggested that the populations are influenced by location rather than host species. Populations from France and Spain displayed the highest levels of genetic diversity followed by the population in Ukraine. Both mating types were detected in most countries, with the exception of Hungary, Russia and Slovenia. Evidence for sexual recombination was supported only in the population from Spain. The observed population structure and several shared haplotypes between non-bordering countries provides good evidence that the movement of D. pini in Europe has been strongly influenced by human activity in Europe.

Do interactions between plant and soil biota change with elevation? A study on Fagus sylvatica.

Theoretical models predict weakening of negative biotic interactions and strengthening of positive interactions with increasing abiotic stress. However, most empirical tests have been restricted to plant-plant interactions. No empirical study has examined theoretical predictions of interactions between plants and below-ground micro-organisms, although soil biota strongly regulates plant community composition and dynamics. We examined variability in soil biota effects on tree regeneration across an abiotic gradient. Our candidate tree species was European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), whose regeneration is extremely responsive to soil biota activity. In a greenhouse experiment, we measured tree survival in sterilized and non-sterilized soils collected across an elevation gradient in the French Alps. Negative effects of soil biota on tree survival decreased with elevation, similar to shifts observed in plant-plant interactions. Hence, soil biota effects must be included in theoretical models of plant biotic interactions to accurately represent and predict the effects of abiotic gradient on plant communities.

Unravelling hybridization in Phytophthora using phylogenomics and genome size estimation.

The genus Phytophthora comprises many economically and ecologically important plant pathogens. Hybrid species have previously been identified in at least six of the 12 phylogenetic clades. These hybrids can potentially infect a wider host range and display enhanced vigour compared to their progenitors. Phytophthora hybrids therefore pose a serious threat to agriculture as well as to natural ecosystems. Early and correct identification of hybrids is therefore essential for adequate plant protection but this is hampered by the limitations of morphological and traditional molecular methods. Identification of hybrids is also important in evolutionary studies as the positioning of hybrids in a phylogenetic tree can lead to suboptimal topologies. To improve the identification of hybrids we have combined genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) and genome size estimation on a genus-wide collection of 614 Phytophthora isolates. Analyses based on locus- and allele counts and especially on the combination of species-specific loci and genome size estimations allowed us to confirm and characterize 27 previously described hybrid species and discover 16 new hybrid species. Our method was also valuable for species identification at an unprecedented resolution and further allowed correct naming of misidentified isolates. We used both a concatenation- and a coalescent-based phylogenomic method to construct a reliable phylogeny using the GBS data of 140 non-hybrid Phytophthora isolates. Hybrid species were subsequently connected to their progenitors in this phylogenetic tree. In this study we demonstrate the application of two validated techniques (GBS and flow cytometry) for relatively low cost but high resolution identification of hybrids and their phylogenetic relations.

Development, comparison, and validation of real-time and conventional PCR tools for the detection of the fungal pathogens causing brown spot and red band needle blights of pine.

Dothistroma pini, D. septosporum, and Lecanosticta acicola are fungal pathogens that cause severe foliage diseases in conifers. All three pathogens are listed as quarantine organisms in numerous countries throughout the world and, thus, are subject to specific monitoring. Detection and identification of these pathogens still often relies on cumbersome and unsatisfactory methods that are based upon the morphological characterization of fungal fruiting bodies and conidia. In this study, we present the development of several new molecular tools that enable a rapid and specific in planta detection of each of these pathogens. Several DNA extraction procedures starting from infected needles were compared and four commercial DNA extraction kits provided DNA of satisfactory quality for amplification by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). In addition, we developed several sets of conventional PCR primers, dual-labeled probes (DLPs), and duplex-scorpion probes (DSPs), all of which targeted each pathogen. Their ability to detect the pathogens in a series of naturally infected needle samples was compared. The quadruplex DLP real-time assay proved to be more sensitive than the DSP assay and conventional PCR but the two real-time probe formats yielded identical results in the naturally infected samples. Both real-time assays proved to be significantly superior to the technique of humid chamber incubation, which often failed to produce spores for the accurate identification of the pathogens.

A statistical model to detect asymptomatic infectious individuals with an application in the Phytophthora alni-induced alder decline.

In some diseases-in particular, tree root infection-stages of infection and inoculum production level and timing are not readily observable because of uncertainty or time lags in symptom appearance. Here, we pose a criterion, based on relative hazard of disease symptoms, to discriminate between healthy and asymptomatic infected individuals. We design a statistical procedure to estimate the criterion for a 6-year survey of alder decline along a northeastern French river. Individual tree symptom hazard was modeled with Cox's regression model, taking estimation of local infection pressure as a risk factor. From an inoculum production experiment, we thereafter assessed the inoculum production level of target trees, including symptomatic and asymptomatic trees ranked according to their symptoms hazard. Using receiver operating characteristic methods, we first evaluated the criterion performance and determined the discrimination threshold to sort out asymptomatic individuals into healthy and infected. Then, we highlighted the fact that the infected asymptomatic trees were among the major inoculum producers whereas severely declining and dead trees were found to be poor inoculum sources.

Prediction and Mapping of the Impact of Winter Temperature on the Development of Phytophthora cinnamomi-Induced Cankers on Red and Pedunculate Oak in France.

ABSTRACT Phytophthora cinnamomi is the causal agent of a perennial canker that develops on the lower bole on northern red oak and pedunculate oak. The disease has a limited range in Europe, being reported only in southwest France. This limited distribution is probably linked to the susceptibility of P. cinnamomi to frost. A model was developed in previous work to estimate the impact of temperatures of <0 degrees C on the winter survival of P. cinnamomi in trunk cortical tissues and on the subsequent development of cankers. In this article, we report the use of this model to simulate canker development in 503 locations across France during a 30-year period. The predicted canker extension decreased sharply when the median P. cinnamomi winter survival index decreased from 0.95 to 0.65, with cankers that poorly developed when the median survival index was lower than 0.5 to 0.6. The actual incidence of the disease in 192 stands located across southwest France was compared with that of the model outputs. Both presence of disease in stands and frequency of cankered trees in infected stands, but not canker size on infected trees, were strongly related to the median P. cinnamomi survival index. No disease was present in stands with median survival index lower than 0.65, and the frequency of cankered trees in infected stands remained very low in stands with a median survival index between 0.65 and 0.70. Aspect was an additional factor explaining disease incidence, while the effect of elevation was likely due to its effect on winter temperatures. Maps of winter suitability to P. cinnamomi-induced cankers on oaks in France are presented.