Mortality Among Persons Entering HIV Care Compared With the General U.S. Population : An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding advances in the care and treatment of adults with HIV as well as remaining gaps requires comparing differences in mortality between persons entering care for HIV and the general population. OBJECTIVE: To assess the extent to which mortality among persons entering HIV care in the United States is elevated over mortality among matched persons in the general U.S. population and trends in this difference over time. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Thirteen sites from the U.S. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PARTICIPANTS: 82 766 adults entering HIV clinical care between 1999 and 2017 and a subset of the U.S. population matched on calendar time, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county using U.S. mortality and population data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. MEASUREMENTS: Five-year all-cause mortality, estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. RESULTS: Overall 5-year mortality among persons entering HIV care was 10.6%, and mortality among the matched U.S. population was 2.9%, for a difference of 7.7 (95% CI, 7.4 to 7.9) percentage points. This difference decreased over time, from 11.1 percentage points among those entering care between 1999 and 2004 to 2.7 percentage points among those entering care between 2011 and 2017. LIMITATION: Matching on available covariates may have failed to account for differences in mortality that were due to sociodemographic factors rather than consequences of HIV infection and other modifiable factors. CONCLUSION: Mortality among persons entering HIV care decreased dramatically between 1999 and 2017, although those entering care remained at modestly higher risk for death in the years after starting care than comparable persons in the general U.S. population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Current and Past Immunodeficiency Are Associated With Higher Hospitalization Rates Among Persons on Virologically Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy for up to 11 Years.

BACKGROUND: Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) with persistently low CD4 counts despite efficacious antiretroviral therapy could have higher hospitalization risk. METHODS: In 6 US and Canadian clinical cohorts, PWH with virologic suppression for ≥1 year in 2005-2015 were followed until virologic failure, loss to follow-up, death, or study end. Stratified by early (years 2-5) and long-term (years 6-11) suppression and lowest presuppression CD4 count <200 and ≥200 cells/µL, Poisson regression models estimated hospitalization incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) comparing patients by time-updated CD4 count category, adjusted for cohort, age, gender, calendar year, suppression duration, and lowest presuppression CD4 count. RESULTS: The 6997 included patients (19 980 person-years) were 81% cisgender men and 40% white. Among patients with lowest presuppression CD4 count <200 cells/µL (44%), patients with current CD4 count 200-350 vs >500 cells/µL had aIRRs of 1.44 during early suppression (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-2.06), and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.03-2.72) during long-term suppression. Among patients with lowest presuppression CD4 count ≥200 (56%), patients with current CD4 351-500 vs >500 cells/µL had an aIRR of 1.22 (95% CI, .93-1.60) during early suppression and 2.09 (95% CI, 1.18-3.70) during long-term suppression. CONCLUSIONS: Virologically suppressed patients with lower CD4 counts experienced higher hospitalization rates and could potentially benefit from targeted clinical management strategies.

Hospitalization Rates and Causes Among Persons With HIV in the United States and Canada, 2005-2015.

BACKGROUND: To assess the possible impact of antiretroviral therapy improvements, aging, and comorbidities, we examined trends in all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization rates among persons with HIV (PWH) from 2005 to 2015. METHODS: In 6 clinical cohorts, we followed PWH in care (≥1 outpatient CD4 count or HIV load [VL] every 12 months) and categorized ICD codes of primary discharge diagnoses using modified Clinical Classifications Software. Poisson regression estimated hospitalization rate ratios for calendar time trends, adjusted for demographics, HIV risk factor, and annually updated age, CD4, and VL. RESULTS: Among 28 057 patients (125 724 person-years), from 2005 to 2015, the median CD4 increased from 389 to 580 cells/µL and virologic suppression from 55% to 85% of patients. Unadjusted all-cause hospitalization rates decreased from 22.3 per 100 person-years in 2005 (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.6-24.1) to 13.0 in 2015 (95% CI, 12.2-14.0). Unadjusted rates decreased for almost all diagnostic categories. Adjusted rates decreased for all-cause, cardiovascular, and AIDS-defining conditions, increased for non-AIDS-defining infection, and were stable for most other categories. CONCLUSIONS: Among PWH with increasing CD4 counts and viral suppression, unadjusted hospitalization rates decreased for all-cause and most cause-specific hospitalizations, despite the potential effects of aging, comorbidities, and cumulative exposure to HIV and antiretrovirals.

Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation and Risk of Cancer Among Persons Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: Persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) experience a high burden of cancer. It remains unknown which cancer types are reduced in PLWH with earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We evaluated AIDS-free, ART-naive PLWH during 1996-2014 from 22 cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PLWH were followed from first observed CD4 of 350-500 cells/µL (baseline) until incident cancer, death, lost-to-follow-up, or December 2014. Outcomes included 6 cancer groups and 5 individual cancers that were confirmed by chart review or cancer registry linkage. We evaluated the effect of earlier (in the first 6 months after baseline) versus deferred ART initiation on cancer risk. Marginal structural models were used with inverse probability weighting to account for time-dependent confounding and informative right-censoring, with weights informed by subject's age, sex, cohort, baseline year, race/ethnicity, HIV transmission risk, smoking, viral hepatitis, CD4, and AIDS diagnoses. RESULTS: Protective results for earlier ART were found for any cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], .37-.86), AIDS-defining cancers (HR 0.23; 95% CI, .11-.49), any virus-related cancer (HR 0.30; 95% CI, .16-.54), Kaposi sarcoma (HR 0.25; 95% CI, .10-.61), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (HR 0.22; 95% CI, .06-.73). By 15 years, there was also an observed reduced risk with earlier ART for virus-related NADCs (0.6% vs 2.3%; adjusted risk difference -1.6; 95% CI, -2.8, -.5). CONCLUSIONS: Earlier ART initiation has potential to reduce the burden of virus-related cancers in PLWH but not non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) without known or suspected viral etiology.

Transportability From Randomized Trials to Clinical Care: On Initial HIV Treatment With Efavirenz and Suicidal Thoughts or Behaviors.

In an analysis of randomized trials, use of efavirenz for treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was associated with increased suicidal thoughts/behaviors. However, analyses of observational data have found no evidence of increased risk. To assess whether population differences might explain this divergence, we transported the effect of efavirenz use from these trials to a specific target population. Using inverse odds weights and multiple imputation, we transported the effect of efavirenz on suicidal thoughts/behaviors in these randomized trials (participants were enrolled in 2001-2007) to a trials-eligible cohort of US adults initiating antiretroviral therapy while receiving HIV clinical care at medical centers between 1999 and 2015. Overall, 8,291 cohort participants and 3,949 trial participants were eligible. Prescription of antidepressants (19% vs. 13%) and injection drug history (16% vs. 10%) were more frequent in the cohort than in the trial participants. Compared with the effect in trials, the estimated hazard ratio for efavirenz on suicidal thoughts/behaviors was attenuated in our target population (trials: hazard ratio (HR) = 2.3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2, 4.4); transported: HR = 1.8 (95% CI: 0.9, 4.4)), whereas the incidence rate difference was similar (trials: HR = 5.1 (95% CI: 1.6, 8.7); transported: HR = 5.4 (95% CI: -0.4, 11.4)). In our target population, there was greater than 20% attenuation of the hazard ratio estimate as compared with the trials-only estimate. Transporting results from trials to a target population is informative for addressing external validity.

HIV Viremia and Risk of Stroke Among People Living with HIV Who Are Using Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Rates of stroke are higher in people living with HIV compared with age-matched uninfected individuals. Causes of elevated stroke risk, including the role of viremia, are poorly defined. METHODS: Between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2014, we identified incident strokes among people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy at five sites across the United States. We considered three parameterizations of viral load (VL) including (1) baseline (most recent VL before study entry), (2) time-updated, and (3) cumulative VL (copy-days/mL of virus). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke risk comparing the 75th percentile ("high VL") to the 25th percentile ("low VL") of baseline and time-updated VL. We used marginal structural Cox models, with most models adjusted for traditional stroke risk factors, to estimate HRs for stroke associated with cumulative VL. RESULTS: Among 15,974 people living with HIV, 139 experienced a stroke (113 ischemic; 18 hemorrhagic; eight were unknown type) over a median follow-up of 4.2 years. Median baseline VL was 38 copies/mL (interquartile interval: 24, 3,420). High baseline VL was associated with increased risk of both ischemic (HR: 1.3; 95% CI = 0.96-1.7) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR: 3.1; 95% CI = 1.6-5.9). In time-updated models, high VL was also associated with an increased risk of any stroke (HR: 1.8; 95% CI = 1.4-2.3). We observed no association between cumulative VL and stroke risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that elevated HIV VL may increase stroke risk, regardless of previous VL levels.

Changing Patterns of Alcohol Use and Probability of Unsuppressed Viral Load Among Treated Patients with HIV Engaged in Routine Care in the United States.

We examined HIV viral load non-suppression ([Formula: see text] 200 copies/mL) subsequent to person-periods (3-18 months) bookended by two self-reports of alcohol use on a standardized patient reported outcome assessment among adults in routine HIV care. We examined the relative risk (RR) of non-suppression associated with increases and decreases in alcohol use (relative to stable use), stratified by use at the start of the person-period. Increases in drinking from abstinence were associated with higher risk of viral non-suppression (low-risk without binge: RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.03, 1.32; low-risk with binge: RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.11, 1.63; high-risk: RR 1.89, 95% CI 1.16, 3.08). Decreases in drinking from high-risk drinking were weakly, and not statistically significantly associated with lower risk of viral non-suppression. Other changes in alcohol use were not associated with viral load non-suppression. Most changes in alcohol consumption among people using alcohol at baseline were not strongly associated with viral non-suppression.

Clinic-Level Factors Associated With Retention in Care Among People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in a Multisite US Cohort, 2010-2016.

BACKGROUND: Retention in care (RIC) leads to reduced HIV transmission and mortality. Few studies have investigated clinic services and RIC among people living with HIV (PLWH) in the United States. We conducted a multisite retrospective cohort study to identify clinic services associated with RIC from 2010-2016 in the United States. METHODS: PLWH with ≥1 HIV primary care visit from 2010-2016 at 7 sites in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) were included. Clinic-level factors evaluated via site survey included patients per provider/trainee, navigation, RIC posters/brochures, laboratory test timing, flexible scheduling, appointment reminder methods, and stigma support services. RIC was defined as ≥2 encounters per year, ≥90 days apart, observed until death, administrative censoring (31 December 2016), or loss to follow-up (censoring at first 12-month interval without a visit with no future visits). Poisson regression with robust error variance, clustered by site adjusting for calendar year, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and HIV transmission risk factor, estimated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for RIC. RESULTS: Among 21 046 PLWH contributing 103 348 person-years, 67% of person-years were retained. Availability of text appointment reminders (RR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03-1.24) and stigma support services (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04-1.19) were associated with better RIC. Disparities persisted for age, sex, and race. CONCLUSIONS: Availability of text appointment reminders and stigma support services was associated with higher rates of RIC, indicating that these may be feasible and effective approaches for improving RIC.

Association of Immunosuppression and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Viremia With Anal Cancer Risk in Persons Living With HIV in the United States and Canada.

BACKGROUND: People living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) have a markedly elevated anal cancer risk, largely due to loss of immunoregulatory control of oncogenic human papillomavirus infection. To better understand anal cancer development and prevention, we determined whether recent, past, cumulative, or nadir/peak CD4+ T-cell count (CD4) and/or HIV-1 RNA level (HIV RNA) best predict anal cancer risk. METHODS: We studied 102 777 PLWH during 1996-2014 from 21 cohorts participating in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Using demographics-adjusted, cohort-stratified Cox models, we assessed associations between anal cancer risk and various time-updated CD4 and HIV RNA measures, including cumulative and nadir/peak measures during prespecified moving time windows. We compared models using the Akaike information criterion. RESULTS: Cumulative and nadir/peak CD4 or HIV RNA measures from approximately 8.5 to 4.5 years in the past were generally better predictors for anal cancer risk than their corresponding more recent measures. However, the best model included CD4 nadir (ie, the lowest CD4) from approximately 8.5 years to 6 months in the past (hazard ratio [HR] for <50 vs ≥500 cells/µL, 13.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.5-51.0) and proportion of time CD4 <200 cells/µL from approximately 8.5 to 4.5 years in the past (a cumulative measure; HR for 100% vs 0%, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.5-6.6). CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with anal cancer promotion by severe, prolonged HIV-induced immunosuppression. Nadir and cumulative CD4 may represent useful markers for identifying PLWH at higher anal cancer risk.

Genetic architecture of cardiometabolic risks in people living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Advances in antiretroviral therapies have greatly improved the survival of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (PLWH); yet, PLWH have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease than those without HIV. While numerous genetic loci have been linked to cardiometabolic risk in the general population, genetic predictors of the excessive risk in PLWH are largely unknown. METHODS: We screened for common and HIV-specific genetic variants associated with variation in lipid levels in 6284 PLWH (3095 European Americans [EA] and 3189 African Americans [AA]), from the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort. Genetic hits found exclusively in the PLWH cohort were tested for association with other traits. We then assessed the predictive value of a series of polygenic risk scores (PRS) recapitulating the genetic burden for lipid levels, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and myocardial infarction (MI) in EA and AA PLWH. RESULTS: We confirmed the impact of previously reported lipid-related susceptibility loci in PLWH. Furthermore, we identified PLWH-specific variants in genes involved in immune cell regulation and previously linked to HIV control, body composition, smoking, and alcohol consumption. Moreover, PLWH at the top of European-based PRS for T2D distribution demonstrated a > 2-fold increased risk of T2D compared to the remaining 95% in EA PLWH but to a much lesser degree in AA. Importantly, while PRS for MI was not predictive of MI risk in AA PLWH, multiethnic PRS significantly improved risk stratification for T2D and MI. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that genetic loci involved in the regulation of the immune system and predisposition to risky behaviors contribute to dyslipidemia in the presence of HIV infection. Moreover, we demonstrate the utility of the European-based and multiethnic PRS for stratification of PLWH at a high risk of cardiometabolic diseases who may benefit from preventive therapies.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Viral Suppression After Transition From Having No Healthcare Coverage and Relying on Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program Support to Medicaid or Private Health Insurance.

Among 1942 persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) without healthcare coverage in 2012-2015, transitioning to Medicaid (adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.95 [0.87, 1.04]) or to private health insurance (1.04 [0.95, 1.13]) was not associated with a change in consistent HIV viral suppression compared to continued reliance on the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program.

Life-Expectancy Disparities Among Adults With HIV in the United States and Canada: The Impact of a Reduction in Drug- and Alcohol-Related Deaths Using the Lives Saved Simulation Model.

Improvements in life expectancy among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States and Canada might differ among key populations. Given the difference in substance use among key populations and the current opioid epidemic, drug- and alcohol-related deaths might be contributing to the disparities in life expectancy. We sought to estimate life expectancy at age 20 years in key populations (and their comparison groups) in 3 time periods (2004-2007, 2008-2011, and 2012-2015) and the potential increase in expected life expectancy with a simulated 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related deaths using the novel Lives Saved Simulation model. Among 92,289 PLWH, life expectancy increased in all key populations and comparison groups from 2004-2007 to 2012-2015. Disparities in survival of approximately a decade persisted among black versus white men who have sex with men and people with (vs. without) a history of injection drug use. A 20% reduction in drug- and alcohol-related mortality would have the greatest life-expectancy benefit for black men who have sex with men, white women, and people with a history of injection drug use. Our findings suggest that preventing drug- and alcohol-related deaths among PLWH could narrow disparities in life expectancy among some key populations, but other causes of death must be addressed to further narrow the disparities.

Who Will Show? Predicting Missed Visits Among Patients in Routine HIV Primary Care in the United States.

Missed HIV medical visits predict poor clinical outcomes. We sought to identify patients at high risk of missing visits. We analyzed 2002-2014 data from six large US HIV clinics. At each visit, we predicted the likelihood of missing the next scheduled visit using demographic, clinical, and patient-reported psychosocial variables. Overall, 10,374 participants contributed 105,628 HIV visits. For 17% of visits, the next scheduled appointment was missed. The strongest predictor of a future missed visit was past-year missed visits. A model with only this predictor had area under the receiver operator curve = 0.65; defining "high risk" as those with any past-year missed visits had 73% sensitivity and 51% specificity in correctly identifying a future missed visit. Inclusion of other clinical and psychosocial predictors only slightly improved performance. Past visit attendance can identify those at increased risk for future missed visits, allowing for proactive allocation of resources to those at greatest risk.

Alcohol Use Patterns and Subsequent Sexual Behaviors Among Women, Men who have Sex with Men and Men who have Sex with Women Engaged in Routine HIV Care in the United States.

Among people with HIV, alcohol use is associated with increased prevalence of sexual transmission behaviors. We examined associations between alcohol use in the prior year and sexual behaviors approximately six months later among 1857 women, 6752 men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2685 men who have sex with women (MSW). Any alcohol use was associated with increased risk of unsafe vaginal sex among women; anal sex and =>2 anal sex partners among MSM; and anal sex, =>2 anal or vaginal sex partners, and unsafe vaginal sex among MSW. In particular, among women >7 alcoholic drinks/week and among MSW =>5 alcoholic drinks/drinking day increased the likelihood of certain subsequent sexual behaviors. For all groups, especially women, the risk of sex under the influence of drugs/alcohol markedly increased with increases in quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption. These different patterns of drinking and sexual behaviors indicate the importance of tailored counseling messages to women, MSM and MSW.

Cognitive-affective depressive symptoms and substance use among Latino and non-Latino White patients in HIV care: an analysis of the CFAR network of integrated clinical systems cohort.

The disparity in viral suppression rates between Latino and non-Latino White patients in HIV care appears to be narrowing, but it is unclear if depression and substance use perpetuate this disparity. We analyzed electronic medical records from the CFAR network of integrated clinical systems cohort. First observations/enrollment data collected between 2007 and 2013 were analyzed, which included survey (race/ethnicity, depression, substance use, adherence) and clinical data (viral suppression). We estimated indirect effects with a regression-based bootstrapping method. In 3129 observations, Latinos and non-Latino Whites did not differ in depression or alcohol use (ORs 1.11, 0.99, ns), but did in drug use (OR 1.13, p < .001). For all patients, depression and substance use were indirectly associated with small increases (ORs 1.02-1.66) in the odds for a detectable viral load, via worse adherence. We conclude that variables not captured in EMR systems (e.g., health literacy, structural factors) may better explain viral suppression disparities that persist.

HIV Viral Suppression Trends Over Time Among HIV-Infected Patients Receiving Care in the United States, 1997 to 2015: A Cohort Study.

Background: Because HIV viral suppression is essential for optimal outcomes and prevention efforts, understanding trends and predictors is imperative to inform public health policy. Objective: To evaluate viral suppression trends in people living with HIV (PLWH), including the relationship of associated factors, such as demographic characteristics and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (ISTI) use. Design: Longitudinal observational cohort study. Setting: 8 HIV clinics across the United States. Participants: PLWH receiving clinical care. Measurements: To understand trends in viral suppression (≤400 copies/mL), annual viral suppression rates from 1997 to 2015 were determined. Analyses were repeated with tests limited to 1 random test per person per year and using inverse probability of censoring weights to address loss to follow-up. Joint longitudinal and survival models and linear mixed models of PLWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) were used to examine associations between viral suppression or continuous viral load (VL) levels and demographic factors, substance use, adherence, and ISTI use. Results: Viral suppression increased from 32% in 1997 to 86% in 2015 on the basis of all tests among 31 930 PLWH. In adjusted analyses, being older (odds ratio [OR], 0.76 per decade [95% CI, 0.74 to 0.78]) and using an ISTI-based regimen (OR, 0.54 [CI, 0.51 to 0.57]) were associated with lower odds of having a detectable VL, and black race was associated with higher odds (OR, 1.68 [CI, 1.57 to 1.80]) (P < 0.001 for each). Similar patterns were seen with continuous VL levels; when analyses were limited to 2010 to 2015; and with adjustment for adherence, substance use, or depression. Limitation: Results are limited to PLWH receiving clinical care. Conclusion: HIV viral suppression rates have improved dramatically across the United States, which is likely partially attributable to improved ART, including ISTI-based regimens. However, disparities among younger and black PLWH merit attention. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health.

Sensitivity Analyses for Misclassification of Cause of Death in the Parametric G-Formula.

Cause-specific mortality is an important outcome in studies of interventions to improve survival, yet causes of death can be misclassified. Here, we present an approach to performing sensitivity analyses for misclassification of cause of death in the parametric g-formula. The g-formula is a useful method to estimate effects of interventions in epidemiologic research because it appropriately accounts for time-varying confounding affected by prior treatment and can estimate risk under dynamic treatment plans. We illustrate our approach using an example comparing acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related mortality under immediate and delayed treatment strategies in a cohort of therapy-naive adults entering care for human immunodeficiency virus infection in the United States. In the standard g-formula approach, 10-year risk of AIDS-related mortality under delayed treatment was 1.73 (95% CI: 1.17, 2.54) times the risk under immediate treatment. In a sensitivity analysis assuming that AIDS-related death was measured with sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 90%, the 10-year risk ratio comparing AIDS-related mortality between treatment plans was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.13, 3.14). When sensitivity and specificity are unknown, this approach can be used to estimate the effects of dynamic treatment plans under a range of plausible values of sensitivity and specificity of the recorded event type.

Evaluating the Population Impact on Racial/Ethnic Disparities in HIV in Adulthood of Intervening on Specific Targets: A Conceptual and Methodological Framework.

Reducing racial/ethnic disparities in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease is a high priority. Reductions in HIV racial/ethnic disparities can potentially be achieved by intervening on important intermediate factors. The potential population impact of intervening on intermediates can be evaluated using observational data when certain conditions are met. However, using standard stratification-based approaches commonly employed in the observational HIV literature to estimate the potential population impact in this setting may yield results that do not accurately estimate quantities of interest. Here we describe a useful conceptual and methodological framework for using observational data to appropriately evaluate the impact on HIV racial/ethnic disparities of interventions. This framework reframes relevant scientific questions in terms of a controlled direct effect and estimates a corresponding proportion eliminated. We review methods and conditions sufficient for accurate estimation within the proposed framework. We use the framework to analyze data on 2,329 participants in the CFAR [Centers for AIDS Research] Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (2008-2014) to evaluate the potential impact of universal prescription of and ≥95% adherence to antiretroviral therapy on racial disparities in HIV virological suppression. We encourage the use of the described framework to appropriately evaluate the potential impact of targeted interventions in addressing HIV racial/ethnic disparities using observational data.

Predictors of Longitudinal Trajectories of Alcohol Consumption in People with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to describe alcohol consumption trajectories in a cohort of people living with HIV and determine clinical and sociodemographic predictors of each trajectory. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of 7,906 patients in the 7 Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems sites. Alcohol consumption was categorized as none, moderate, and alcohol misuse. Predictors included age, race/ethnicity, depressive or anxiety symptoms, illicit drug use (opioids, methamphetamines, cocaine/crack), marijuana use, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, HIV transmission risk factor, and HIV disease progression. We estimated sex-stratified alcohol consumption trajectories and their predictors. RESULTS: We found 7 trajectories of alcohol consumption in men: stable nondrinking and increased drinking (71% and 29% of initial nondrinking); stable moderate, reduced drinking, and increased alcohol misuse (59%, 21%, and 21% of initial moderate alcohol use); and stable alcohol misuse and reduced alcohol misuse (75% and 25% of initial alcohol misuse). Categories were similar in women, except lack of an increase to alcohol misuse trajectory among women that begin with moderate use. Older men and women were more likely to have stable nondrinking, while younger men were more likely to increase to or remain in alcohol misuse. Minorities, people with depressive or anxiety symptoms, HCV-infected individuals, and people who injected drugs were more likely to reduce use. Illicit drug use was associated with a reduction in overall drinking, while marijuana use was associated with stable moderate drinking or misuse. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal trajectories of increasing alcohol use and stable misuse highlight the need to integrate routine screening and alcohol misuse interventions into HIV primary care.

Estimating multiple time-fixed treatment effects using a semi-Bayes semiparametric marginal structural Cox proportional hazards regression model.

Marginal structural models for time-fixed treatments fit using inverse-probability weighted estimating equations are increasingly popular. Nonetheless, the resulting effect estimates are subject to finite-sample bias when data are sparse, as is typical for large-sample procedures. Here we propose a semi-Bayes estimation approach which penalizes or shrinks the estimated model parameters to improve finite-sample performance. This approach uses simple symmetric data-augmentation priors. Limited simulation experiments indicate that the proposed approach reduces finite-sample bias and improves confidence-interval coverage when the true values lie within the central "hill" of the prior distribution. We illustrate the approach with data from a nonexperimental study of HIV treatments.