Pulmonary arterial hypertension treatment: an individual participant data network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Effective therapies that target three main signalling pathways are approved to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). However, there are few large patient-level studies that compare the effectiveness of these pathways. The aim of this analysis was to compare the effectiveness of the treatment pathways in PAH and to assess treatment heterogeneity. METHODS: A network meta-analysis was performed using individual participant data of 6811 PAH patients from 20 Phase III randomized clinical trials of therapy for PAH that were submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration. Individual drugs were grouped by the following treatment pathways: endothelin, nitric oxide, and prostacyclin pathways. RESULTS: The mean (±standard deviation) age of the sample was 49.2 (±15.4) years; 78.4% were female, 59.7% had idiopathic PAH, and 36.5% were on background PAH therapy. After covariate adjustment, targeting the endothelin + nitric oxide pathway {ß: 43.7 m [95% confidence interval (CI): 32.9, 54.4]}, nitric oxide pathway [ß: 29.4 m (95% CI: 22.6, 36.3)], endothelin pathway [ß: 25.3 m (95% CI: 19.8, 30.8)], and prostacyclin pathway [oral/inhaled ß: 19.1 m (95% CI: 14.2, 24.0), intravenous/subcutaneous ß: 24.4 m (95% CI: 15.1, 33.7)] significantly increased 6 min walk distance at 12 or 16 weeks compared with placebo. Treatments also significantly reduced the likelihood of having clinical worsening events. There was significant heterogeneity of treatment effects by age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary artery disease. CONCLUSIONS: Drugs targeting the three traditional treatment pathways significantly improve outcomes in PAH, with significant treatment heterogeneity in patients with some comorbidities. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to identify the most effective treatment strategies in a personalized approach.

Apo CIII Proteoforms, Plasma Lipids, and Cardiovascular Risk in MESA.

BACKGROUND: Apo CIII (apolipoprotein CIII) is an important regulator of triglyceride metabolism and was associated with cardiovascular risk in several cohorts. It is present in 4 major proteoforms, a native peptide (CIII0a), and glycosylated proteoforms with zero (CIII0b), 1 (CIII1, most abundant), or 2 (CIII2) sialic acids, which may differentially modify lipoprotein metabolism. We studied the relationships of these proteoforms with plasma lipids and cardiovascular risk. METHODS: Apo CIII proteoforms were measured by mass spectrometry immunoassay in baseline plasma samples of 5791 participants of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, an observational community-based cohort. Standard plasma lipids were collected for up to 16 years and cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or stroke) were adjudicated for up to 17 years. RESULTS: Apo CIII proteoform composition differed by age, sex, race and ethnicity, body mass index, and fasting glucose. Notably, CIII1 was lower in older participants, men and Black and Chinese (versus White) participants, and higher in obesity and diabetes. In contrast, CIII2 was higher in older participants, men, Black, and Chinese persons, and lower in Hispanic individuals and obesity. Higher CIII2 to CIII1 ratio (CIII2/III1) was associated with lower triglycerides and higher HDL (high-density lipoprotein) in cross-sectional and longitudinal models, independently of clinical and demographic risk factors and total apo CIII. The associations of CIII0a/III1 and CIII0b/III1 with plasma lipids were weaker and varied through cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Total apo CIII and CIII2/III1 were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk (n=669 events, hazard ratios, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.04-1.25] and 1.21 [1.11-1.31], respectively); however, the associations were attenuated after adjustment for clinical and demographic characteristics (1.07 [0.98-1.16]; 1.07 [0.97-1.17]). In contrast, CIII0b/III1 was inversely associated with cardiovascular disease risk even after full adjustment including plasma lipids (0.86 [0.79-0.93]). CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate differences in clinical and demographic relationships of apo CIII proteoforms, and highlight the importance of apo CIII proteoform composition in predicting future lipid patterns and cardiovascular disease risk.

Minimal Clinically Important Difference in the 6-minute-walk Distance for Patients with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

Rationale: The 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD) is an important clinical and research metric in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH); however, there is no consensus about what minimal change in 6MWD is clinically significant. Objectives: We aimed to determine the minimal clinically important difference in the 6MWD. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis using individual participant data from eight randomized clinical trials of therapy for PAH submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to derive minimal clinically important differences in the 6MWD. The estimates were externally validated using the Pulmonary Hypertension Association Registry. We anchored the change in 6MWD to the change in the Medical Outcomes Survey Short Form physical component score. Measurements and Main Results: The derivation (clinical trial) and validation (Pulmonary Hypertension Association Registry) samples were comprised of 2,404 and 537 adult patients with PAH, respectively. The mean ± standard deviation age of the derivation sample was 50.5 ± 15.2 years, and 1,849 (77%) were female, similar to the validation sample. The minimal clinically important difference in the derivation sample was 33 meters (95% confidence interval, 27-38), which was almost identical to that in the validation sample (36 m [95% confidence interval, 29-43]). The minimal clinically important difference did not differ by age, sex, race, pulmonary hypertension etiology, body mass index, use of background therapy, or World Health Organization functional class. Conclusions: We estimated a 6MWD minimal clinically important difference of approximately 33 meters for adults with PAH. Our findings can be applied to the design of clinical trials of therapies for PAH.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The MESA Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in population health, marked racial and ethnic disparities in longevity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist. This study aimed to describe risks for all-cause and CVD mortality by race and ethnicity, before and after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES) and other factors, in the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: MESA recruited 6814 US adults, 45 to 84 years of age, free of clinical CVD at baseline, including Black, White, Hispanic, and Chinese individuals (2000-2002). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-updated covariates, we evaluated the association of self-reported race and ethnicity with all-cause and adjudicated CVD mortality, with progressive adjustments for age and sex, SES (neighborhood SES, income, education, and health insurance), lifestyle and psychosocial risk factors, clinical risk factors, and immigration history. RESULTS: During a median of 15.8 years of follow-up, 22.8% of participants (n=1552) died, of which 5.3% (n=364) died of CVD. After adjusting for age and sex, Black participants had a 34% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]), Chinese participants had a 21% lower mortality hazard (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]), and there was no mortality difference in Hispanic participants (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86-1.14]) compared with White participants. After adjusting for SES, the mortality HR for Black participants compared with White participants was reduced (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.34]) but still statistically significant. With adjustment for SES, the mortality hazards for Chinese and Hispanic participants also decreased in comparison with White participants. After further adjustment for additional risk factors and immigration history, Hispanic participants (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]) had a lower mortality risk than White participants, and hazard ratios for Black participants (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.26]) and Chinese participants (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60-1.08]) were not significantly different from those of White participants. Similar trends were seen for CVD mortality, although the age- and sex-adjusted HR for CVD mortality for Black participants compared with White participants was greater than all-cause mortality (HR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.34-2.21] compared with HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight persistent racial and ethnic differences in overall and CVD mortality, largely attributable to social determinants of health, and support the need to identify and act on systemic factors that shape differences in health across racial and ethnic groups.

Heterogeneity of treatment effects by risk in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

BACKGROUND: It is currently unknown if disease severity modifies response to therapy in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). We aimed to explore if disease severity, as defined by established risk-prediction algorithms, modified response to therapy in randomised clinical trials in PAH. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis using individual participant data from 18 randomised clinical trials of therapy for PAH submitted to the United States Food and Drug Administration to determine if predicted risk of 1-year mortality at randomisation modified the treatment effect on three outcomes: change in 6-min walk distance (6MWD), clinical worsening at 12 weeks and time to clinical worsening. RESULTS: Of 6561 patients with a baseline US Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL 2.0) score, we found that individuals with higher baseline risk had higher probabilities of clinical worsening but no difference in change in 6MWD. We detected a significant interaction of REVEAL 2.0 risk and treatment assignment on change in 6MWD. For every 3-point increase in REVEAL 2.0 score, there was a 12.49 m (95% CI 5.86-19.12 m; p=0.001) greater treatment effect in change in 6MWD. We did not detect a significant risk by treatment interaction on clinical worsening with most of the risk-prediction algorithms. CONCLUSIONS: We found that predicted risk of 1-year mortality in PAH modified treatment effect as measured by 6MWD, but not clinical worsening. Our findings highlight the importance of identifying sources of treatment heterogeneity by predicted risk to tailor studies to patients most likely to have the greatest treatment response.

Incidence of Interstitial Lung Abnormalities: The MESA Lung Study.

The incidence of newly developed interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) and fibrotic ILA have not been previously reported.Trained thoracic radiologists evaluated 13 944 cardiac CT scans for the presence of ILA in 6197 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis longitudinal cohort study participants >45 years of age from 2000 to 2012. 5% of the scans were re-read by the same or a different observer in a blinded fashion. After exclusion of participants with ILA at baseline, incidence rates and incidence rate ratios for ILA and fibrotic ILA were calculated.The intra-reader agreement of ILA was 92.0% (Gwet AC1=0.912, ICC=0.982) and the inter-reader agreement of ILA was 83.5% (Gwet AC1=0.814; ICC=0.969). Incidence of ILA and fibrotic ILA was estimated to be 13.1 cases/1000 person-years and 3.5/1000 person-years, respectively. In multivariable analyses, age (HR 1.06 (1.05, 1.08), p <0.001; HR 1.08 (1.06, 1.11), p <0.001), high attenuation area (HAA) at baseline (HR 1.05 (1.03, 1.07), p <0.001; HR 1.06 (1.02, 1.10), p=0.002), and the MUC5B promoter SNP (HR 1.73 (1.17, 2.56) p=0.01; HR 4.96 (2.68, 9.15), p <0.001) were associated with incident ILA and fibrotic ILA, respectively. Ever smoking (HR 2.31 (1.34, 3.96), p= 0.002) and an IPF polygenic risk score (HR 2.09 (1.61-2.71), p<0.001) were associated only with incident fibrotic ILA.Incident ILA and fibrotic ILA were estimated by review of cardiac imaging studies. These findings may lead to wider application of a screening tool for atherosclerosis to identify preclinical lung disease.

Risk factor associations with individual myocardial infarction subtypes and acute non-ischemic myocardial injury in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA): Design and rationale.

BACKGROUND: Despite different prevalence, pathobiology, and prognosis between etiologically distinct myocardial infarction (MI) subtypes, prospective study of risk factor for MI in large NHLBI-sponsored cardiovascular cohorts is limited to acute MI as a singular entity. Therefore, we sought to utilize the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a large prospective primary prevention cardiovascular study, to define the incidence and risk factor profile of individual myocardial injury subtypes. METHODS: We describe the rationale and design of re-adjudicating 4,080 events that occurred over the first 14 years of follow-up in MESA for the presence and subtype of myocardial injury as defined by the Fourth Universal Definition of MI: MI type 1 to 5, acute non-ischemic myocardial injury, and chronic myocardial injury. The project utilizes a 2-physician adjudication process via examination of medical records, abstracted data collection forms, cardiac biomarker results, and electrocardiograms of all relevant clinical events. Comparison of the magnitude and direction of associations between baseline traditional and novel cardiovascular risk factors with incident and recurrent acute MI subtypes and acute non-ischemic myocardial injury events will be made. CONCLUSIONS: This project will result in one of the first large prospective cardiovascular cohort with modern classification of acute MI subtypes, as well as a full accounting of non-ischemic myocardial injury events, with implications for numerous ongoing and future studies in MESA. By creating precise MI phenotypes, and defining their epidemiology, this project will allow for discovery of novel pathobiology-specific risk factors, allow for development of more accurate risk prediction, and suggest more targeted preventive strategies.

The association of upper airway anatomy with cognitive test performance: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Numerous upper airway anatomy characteristics are risk factors for sleep apnea, which affects 26% of older Americans, and more severe sleep apnea is associated with cognitive impairment. This study explores the pathophysiology and links between upper airway anatomy, sleep, and cognition. METHODS: Participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis underwent an upper airway MRI, polysomnography to assess sleep measures including the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and completed the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI). Two model selection techniques selected from among 67 upper airway measures those that are most strongly associated with CASI score. The associations of selected upper airway measures with AHI, AHI with CASI score, and selected upper airway anatomy measures with CASI score, both alone and after adjustment for AHI, were assessed using linear regression. RESULTS: Soft palate volume, maxillary divergence, and upper facial height were significantly positively associated with higher CASI score, indicating better cognition. The coefficients were small, with a 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in these variables being associated with a 0.83, 0.75, and 0.70 point higher CASI score, respectively. Additional adjustment for AHI very slightly attenuated these associations. Larger soft palate volume was significantly associated with higher AHI (15% higher AHI (95% CI 2%,28%) per SD). Higher AHI was marginally associated with higher CASI score (0.43 (95% CI 0.01,0.85) per AHI doubling). CONCLUSIONS: Three upper airway measures were weakly but significantly associated with higher global cognitive test performance. Sleep apnea did not appear to be the mechanism through which these upper airway and cognition associations were acting. Further research on the selected upper airway measures is recommended.

Plasma proteoforms of apolipoproteins C-I and C-II are associated with plasma lipids in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Apolipoproteins (apo) C-I and C-II are key regulators of triglyceride and HDL metabolism. Both exist as full-size native and truncated (apoC-I'; apoC-II') posttranslational proteoforms. However, the determinants and the role of these proteoforms in lipid metabolism are unknown. Here, we measured apoC-I and apoC-II proteoforms by mass spectrometry immunoassay in baseline and 10-year follow-up plasma samples from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. We found that baseline total apoC-I (mean = 9.2 mg/dl) was lower in African Americans (AA), Chinese Americans (CA), and Hispanics (by 1.8; 1.0; 1.0 mg/dl vs. whites), higher in women (by 1.2 mg/dl), and positively associated with plasma triglycerides and HDL. Furthermore, we observed that the truncated-to-native apoC-I ratio (apoC-I'/C-I) was lower in CA, negatively associated with triglycerides, and positively associated with HDL. We determined that total apoC-II (8.8 mg/dl) was lower in AA (by 0.8 mg/dl) and higher in CA and Hispanics (by 0.5 and 0.4 mg/dl), positively associated with triglycerides, and negatively associated with HDL. In addition, apoC-II'/C-II was higher in AA and women, negatively associated with triglycerides, and positively associated with HDL. We showed that the change in triglycerides was positively associated with changes in total apoC-I and apoC-II and negatively associated with changes in apoC-I'/C-I and apoC-II'/C-II, whereas the change in HDL was positively associated with changes in total apoC-I and apoC-II'/C-II and negatively associated with change in total apoC-II. This study documents racial/ethnic variation in apoC-I and apoC-II plasma levels and highlights apolipoprotein posttranslational modification as a potential regulator of plasma lipids.

Rationale and design of the Kidney Precision Medicine Project.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI) are common, heterogeneous, and morbid diseases. Mechanistic characterization of CKD and AKI in patients may facilitate a precision-medicine approach to prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. The Kidney Precision Medicine Project aims to ethically and safely obtain kidney biopsies from participants with CKD or AKI, create a reference kidney atlas, and characterize disease subgroups to stratify patients based on molecular features of disease, clinical characteristics, and associated outcomes. An additional aim is to identify critical cells, pathways, and targets for novel therapies and preventive strategies. This project is a multicenter prospective cohort study of adults with CKD or AKI who undergo a protocol kidney biopsy for research purposes. This investigation focuses on kidney diseases that are most prevalent and therefore substantially burden the public health, including CKD attributed to diabetes or hypertension and AKI attributed to ischemic and toxic injuries. Reference kidney tissues (for example, living-donor kidney biopsies) will also be evaluated. Traditional and digital pathology will be combined with transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic analysis of the kidney tissue as well as deep clinical phenotyping for supervised and unsupervised subgroup analysis and systems biology analysis. Participants will be followed prospectively for 10 years to ascertain clinical outcomes. Cell types, locations, and functions will be characterized in health and disease in an open, searchable, online kidney tissue atlas. All data from the Kidney Precision Medicine Project will be made readily available for broad use by scientists, clinicians, and patients.

Protein-Defined Subspecies of HDLs (High-Density Lipoproteins) and Differential Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in 4 Prospective Studies.

OBJECTIVE: HDL (high-density lipoprotein) contains functional proteins that define single subspecies, each comprising 1% to 12% of the total HDL. We studied the differential association with coronary heart disease (CHD) of 15 such subspecies. Approach and Results: We measured plasma apoA1 (apolipoprotein A1) concentrations of 15 protein-defined HDL subspecies in 4 US-based prospective studies. Among participants without CVD at baseline, 932 developed CHD during 10 to 25 years. They were matched 1:1 to controls who did not experience CHD. In each cohort, hazard ratios for each subspecies were computed by conditional logistic regression and combined by meta-analysis. Higher levels of HDL subspecies containing alpha-2 macroglobulin, CoC3 (complement C3), HP (haptoglobin), or PLMG (plasminogen) were associated with higher relative risk compared with the HDL counterpart lacking the defining protein (hazard ratio range, 0.96-1.11 per 1 SD increase versus 0.73-0.81, respectively; P for heterogeneity <0.05). In contrast, HDL containing apoC1 or apoE were associated with lower relative risk compared with the counterpart (hazard ratio, 0.74; P=0.002 and 0.77, P=0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Several subspecies of HDL defined by single proteins that are involved in thrombosis, inflammation, immunity, and lipid metabolism are found in small fractions of total HDL and are associated with higher relative risk of CHD compared with HDL that lacks the defining protein. In contrast, HDL containing apoC1 or apoE are robustly associated with lower risk. The balance between beneficial and harmful subspecies in a person's HDL sample may determine the risk of CHD pertaining to HDL and paths to treatment.

Cholesterol Mass Efflux Capacity, Incident Cardiovascular Disease, and Progression of Carotid Plaque.

Objective- To assess the role of HDL (high-density lipoprotein)-mediated cholesterol mass efflux capacity (CMEC) in incident cardiovascular disease and carotid plaque progression. Approach and Results- We measured CMEC in 2 cohorts aged 45 to 84 years at baseline derived from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Cohort 1 comprised 465 cases with incident cardiovascular disease events during 10 years of follow-up and 465 age- and sex-matched controls; cohort 2 comprised 407 cases with progression of carotid plaque measured by ultrasonography at 2 exams >10 years and 407 similarly matched controls. Covariates and outcome events were ascertained according to the MESA protocol. CMEC level was modestly correlated with HDL cholesterol ( R=0.13; P<0.001) but was not associated with age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, alcohol use, smoking status, or statin use. Higher CMEC level was significantly associated with lower odds of cardiovascular disease (odds ratio, 0.82 per SD of CMEC [95% CI, 0.69-0.98; P=0.031] in the fully adjusted model) in cohort 1 but higher odds of carotid plaque progression (odds ratio, 1.24 per SD of CMEC [95% CI, 1.04-1.48; P=0.018] in the fully adjusted model) in cohort 2 but without dose-response effect. In subgroup analysis within cohort 1, higher CMEC was associated with lower risk of incident coronary heart disease events (odds ratio, 0.72 per SD of CMEC (95% CI, 0.5-0.91; P=0.007) while no association was found with stroke events. Conclusions- These findings support a role for HDL-mediated cholesterol efflux in an atheroprotective mechanism for coronary heart disease but not stroke.

Reference values for high attenuation areas on chest CT in a healthy, never-smoker, multi-ethnic sample: The MESA study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Normative values for HAA-a quantitative, CT-based measure of subclinical ILD-in healthy adults are needed to improve interpretability in clinical and research settings. METHODS: HAA was measured on full-lung CT in 3110 participants in the MESA study. Clinical prediction models were developed using a healthy never-smoker subset with normal spirometry (n = 696). RMSE on cross-validation was used as the primary criterion for model selection. Parametric and non-parametric methods were considered. z-Scores were calculated for the entire study sample. Associations between z-scores and several ILD features were estimated. RESULTS: In the healthy never-smoker subset, the mean age was 69 years with a range of 54-93 years. The median HAA was 4.3% with a range of 2.7-17.8%. Linear regression had better predictive performance than other methods. The final model included race, height, weight, age and sex. The standard error of the estimate was 1.62 with a cross-validated RMSE of 1.64 and an adjusted R2 of 0.139. z-Scores were associated with several ILD outcomes in adjusted models, including ILA (OR: 1.40 per z-unit; 95% CI: 1.30, 1.52), exertional dyspnoea (OR: 1.08 per z-unit; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.15) and FVC (expected increase per z-unit: -2.49; 95% CI: -2.95, - 2.03). CONCLUSION: We present a reference equation and z-scores to define expected values of HAA on full-lung CT to aid HAA interpretation in middle-aged and older adults.

Apolipoprotein C-III and its defined lipoprotein subspecies in relation to incident diabetes: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Apolipoprotein C-III (apoC-III) is a small proinflammatory protein that may play a key role in diabetes pathophysiology. However, prior observational studies have been limited to predominantly white populations, and the biological links between apoC-III and diabetes, particularly the role of apoC-III on specific lipoprotein particles, are not yet well understood. We therefore investigated associations of total apoC-III and apoC-III-defined lipoprotein subspecies with incident diabetes and glucose metabolism measures in a multi-ethnic cohort. METHODS: For the current analyses, baseline (2000-2002) plasma total apoC-III and apolipoprotein A-I concentrations of HDL containing or lacking apoC-III were newly measured via sandwich ELISA in 4579 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine associations of apolipoproteins with incident diabetes until early 2012 (567 cases), and linear mixed models were used to estimate associations with longitudinally assessed continuous measures of glucose metabolism. Similar exploratory analyses of plasma apolipoprotein B concentrations of LDL and VLDL containing or lacking apoC-III were performed in a subset of participants (LDL, n = 1545; VLDL, n = 1526). RESULTS: In the overall population, elevated total apoC-III concentrations were associated with a higher rate of diabetes (top vs bottom quintile, HR 1.88; 95% CI 1.42, 2.47; ptrend = 0.0002). ApoC-III-defined HDL subspecies displayed opposing associations with incidence of diabetes (p for heterogeneity = 0.02). While HDL lacking apoC-III was inversely associated with incidence of diabetes (top vs bottom quintile, HR 0.66; 95% CI 0.46, 0.93; ptrend = 0.002), HDL containing apoC-III was not associated (HR 1.11; 95% CI 0.78, 1.58; ptrend = 0.61). Similarly, only HDL lacking apoC-III was beneficially associated with plasma glucose (ptrend = 0.003), HbA1c (ptrend = 0.04) and insulin sensitivity (ptrend < 0.0001), and higher HDL containing apoC-III was associated with lower insulin sensitivity (ptrend = 0.04). Neither of the apoC-III-defined LDL subspecies was associated with incident diabetes, while VLDL was more strongly associated with the incidence of diabetes when it lacked apoC-III. Further adjustment for plasma triacylglycerols as a potential intermediate attenuated the associations of total apoC-III and apoC-III-defined lipoprotein subspecies. No statistically significant differences were observed across racial/ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our findings in a multi-ethnic population support the involvement of apoC-III in the development of diabetes, potentially through its association with circulating triacylglycerols. The presence of apoC-III on HDL also diminished the protective association of HDL with incident diabetes. Further investigation of apoC-III and apoC-III-defined HDL subspecies may inform the development of novel diabetes treatment and prevention strategies.

Astronaut Cardiovascular Health and Risk Modification (Astro-CHARM) Coronary Calcium Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Calculator.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a powerful novel risk indicator for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Currently, there is no available ASCVD risk prediction tool that integrates traditional risk factors and CAC. METHODS: To develop a CAC ASCVD risk tool for younger individuals in the general population, subjects aged 40 to 65 without prior cardiovascular disease from 3 population-based cohorts were included. Cox proportional hazards models were developed incorporating age, sex, systolic blood pressure, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, diabetes mellitus, hypertension treatment, family history of myocardial infarction, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and CAC scores (Astro-CHARM model [Astronaut Cardiovascular Health and Risk Modification]) as dependent variables and ASCVD (nonfatal/fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) as the outcome. Model performance was assessed internally, and validated externally in a fourth cohort. RESULTS: The derivation study comprised 7382 individuals with a mean age 51 years, 45% women, and 55% nonwhite. The median CAC was 0 (25th, 75th [0,9]), and 304 ASCVD events occurred in a median 10.9 years of follow-up. The c-statistic was 0.784 for the risk factor model, and 0.817 for Astro-CHARM ( P<0.0001). In comparison with the risk factor model, the Astro-CHARM model resulted in integrated discrimination improvement (0.0252), and net reclassification improvement (0.121; P<0.0001), as well. The Astro-CHARM model demonstrated good discrimination (c=0.78) and calibration (Nam-D'Agostino χ2, 13.2; P=0.16) in the validation cohort (n=2057; 55 events). A mobile application and web-based tool were developed to facilitate clinical application of this tool ( www.AstroCHARM.org ). CONCLUSION: The Astro-CHARM tool is the first integrated ASCVD risk calculator to incorporate risk factors, including high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and family history, and CAC data. It improves risk prediction in comparison with traditional risk factor equations and could be useful in risk-based decision making for cardiovascular disease prevention in the middle-aged general population.

High-Density Lipoprotein Subspecies Defined by Presence of Apolipoprotein C-III and Incident Coronary Heart Disease in Four Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The causal role of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in cardioprotection has been questioned by genetic and randomized studies. Novel measures that relate to HDL function may contribute new information to the prediction of cardiovascular risk. Apolipoprotein C-III (apoC-III) is a key regulator of lipoprotein metabolism. We investigated whether subspecies of HDL defined by apoC-III are associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: We used immunoaffinity chromatography to measure the apoA-I concentrations of HDL that contains and lacks apoC-III in 2 prospective studies of adults free of CHD. In MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), 5657 participants (52% women, 52-72 years of age) were followed for risk of CHD from 2000 to 2002 through 2013. In a case-cohort study nested within the DCH study (Danish Diet, Cancer, and Health), 3642 participants (47% women, 51-64 years of age) were followed from 1994 to 1997 through 2010. Subsequently, we conducted a meta-analysis that combined these results with the previously published findings from 2 cohort studies that used similar laboratory methodology to measure lipoproteins, totaling 2997 incident cases. RESULTS: ApoC-III was found on 6% to 8% of apoA-I. The 2 HDL subspecies showed opposing associations, with risk of CHD in each of the individual cohorts and in the meta-analysis (P heterogeneity between the 2 subspecies <0.01). HDL that contains apoC-III was associated with a higher risk of CHD (pooled relative risk per standard deviation, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.18), whereas HDL that lacks apoC-III was associated with lower risk (relative risk, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.83). The relative risk for HDL lacking apoC-III was even more negative than the relative risk for total HDL (relative risk, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings from 4 prospective studies support the hypothesis that apoC-III may mark a subfraction of HDL that is associated with higher risk of CHD. New measures reflecting HDL structure and function may provide novel insights for cardiovascular risk that extend beyond traditional plasma HDL cholesterol concentrations.

Spot Urine Sodium-to-Potassium Ratio Is a Predictor of Stroke.

Background and Purpose- Dietary sodium reduction with concurrent increase in potassium intake is a current public health priority to reduce risk of cardiovascular events. This study explored associations between the spot urine sodium-to-potassium ratio and cardiovascular events in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) longitudinal cohort. Methods- The MESA is a prospective cohort study of 6814 adults from 4 ethnic groups (European-, Asian-, African- and Hispanic-American) with a mean age of 62 (±10.2) years and an average of 11.7 (±2.2) years of follow-up. Participants were free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline. Spot urine sodium and potassium excretion, as a marker of dietary intake, was collected at baseline. The impact of urinary sodium-to-potassium ratio on adjudicated cardiovascular events was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. Results- Only 39% of MESA participants had a urinary sodium-to-potassium ratio ≤1, and these participants experienced only 74 of the 236 strokes. A sodium-to-potassium ratio >1 was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.47 (95% CI,1.07-2.00) for risk of stroke, adjusting for age, sex, race, cardiovascular risk factors, socio-demographic characteristics, body size, and kidney function. Conclusions- The spot urine sodium-to-potassium ratio (measurable in routine care) is associated with stroke. A urine sodium-to-potassium ratio of ≤1, may be related to a clinically relevant reduction in stroke risk and is a feasible target for health interventions.

Relationship of fibroblast growth factor 21 with kidney function and albuminuria: multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) may play a role in the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We therefore investigated the relationship of plasma FGF21 levels with kidney function and albuminuria in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). METHODS: The analysis included 5724 MESA participants ages 45-84 years between 2000 and 2002, free of clinically apparent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Participants were followed up in person at four additional clinic visits over 10 years. Plasma FGF21 levels were measured at baseline examination by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Kidney function was assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Outcomes were urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (UACR) progression, incident CKD by eGFR (reaching eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 with eGFR loss rate ≥1 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) and rapid kidney function decline (eGFR decline >5%/year). RESULTS: At baseline, higher FGF21 levels, assessed as both continuous and categorical quartile variables, were significantly associated with lower eGFR and higher UACR, after adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic and other confounding factors [adjusted mean differences of -2.63 mL/min/1.73 m2 in eGFR and 0.134 in log normally transformed UACR (mg/g) for the highest FGF21 quartile compared with the lowest quartile, all P < 0.001]. However, in longitudinal analyses, baseline FGF21 levels did not predict incident CKD by eGFR, rapid kidney function decline or UACR progression. No significant interaction with sex and race/ethnicity was found (all P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study does not support a role of FGF21 as a biomarker for predicting kidney function decline or albuminuria in adults free of clinically apparent CVD at baseline.

Thoracic Aorta Calcification and Noncardiovascular Disease-Related Mortality.

Objective- Arterial calcification is highly correlated with underlying atherosclerosis. Arterial calcification of the thoracic aorta is evident in many older individuals at high susceptibility to aging-related diseases and non-cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality. In this study, we evaluated the association of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC) with non-CVD morbidity and mortality. Approach and Results- We analyzed data from participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a prospective cohort study of subclinical atherosclerosis, in which participants underwent cardiac computed tomography at baseline and were followed longitudinally for incident CVD events and non-CVD events. Using modified proportional hazards models accounting for the competing risk of CVD death and controlling for demographics, CVD risk factors, coronary artery calcium, and CVD events, we evaluated whether TAC was independently associated with non-CVD morbidity and mortality. Among 6765 participants (mean age, 62 years), 704 non-CVD deaths occurred for a median follow-up of 12.2 years. Compared with no TAC, the highest tertile of TAC volume was associated with a higher risk of non-CVD mortality (hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-1.97), as well as several non-CVD diagnoses, including hip fracture (2.14; 1.03-4.46), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.06; 1.29-3.29), and pneumonia (1.79; 1.30-2.45), with magnitudes of association that were larger than for those of coronary artery calcium. Conclusions- TAC is associated with non-CVD morbidity and non-CVD mortality, potentially through a pathway that is unrelated to atherosclerosis. TAC may be a general marker of biological aging and an indicator of increased risk of non-CVD and death.

Carotid artery displacement and cardiovascular disease risk in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Novel technology permits quantification of common carotid artery (CCA) displacement, which is traditionally ignored. We evaluated associations with CCA displacement and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and events in a large, multi-ethnic cohort. Right CCA longitudinal displacement (LD), transverse displacement (TD), and grayscale median (GSM) were evaluated using ultrasound speckle-tracking and texture analysis software in 2050 participants. Regression analyses were used to define relationships between CCA LD, TD, GSM, and CVD risk factors. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess relationships between LD, TD, and incident CVD events. Participants were mean (SD) 64 (10) years old. There were 791 cases with a CVD event over a 12-year median follow-up. The mean LD was 0.29 (0.20) mm. In multivariable models including age, sex, race/ethnicity, heart rate, and CVD risk factors, LD was associated positively with active smoking (ß = 0.08, p < 0.001) and inversely with black (ß = -0.08, p < 0.001), Chinese (ß = -0.05, p < 0.001), and Hispanic (ß = -0.04, p < 0.05) race/ethnicities relative to white individuals, heart rate (ß = -0.03/10 beats/min, p < 0.001), and diastolic blood pressure (ß = -0.01/5 mmHg, p < 0.05). In fully adjusted models, LD and TD were associated with GSM (p < 0.01), but neither predicted incident CVD events (LD: hazard ratio (HR) 0.77 [0.48 to 1.24], p = 0.3; TD: HR 1.12 [0.8 to 1.57], p = 0.5). CCA LD and TD are associated with race/ethnicity and CVD risk factors but not incident CVD events. LD and TD are not measures of arterial stiffness but their association with GSM suggests that lower LD and TD may be related to structural changes within the carotid arterial wall.