Vitamin D did not reduce multiple sclerosis disease activity after a clinically isolated syndrome.

Low serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and low sunlight exposure are known risk factors for the development of multiple sclerosis. Add-on vitamin D supplementation trials in established multiple sclerosis have been inconclusive. The effects of vitamin D supplementation to prevent multiple sclerosis is unknown. We aimed to test the hypothesis that oral vitamin D3 supplementation in high-risk clinically isolated syndrome (abnormal MRI, at least three T2 brain and/or spinal cord lesions), delays time to conversion to definite multiple sclerosis, that the therapeutic effect is dose-dependent, and that all doses are safe and well tolerated. We conducted a double-blind trial in Australia and New Zealand. Eligible participants were randomized 1:1:1:1 to placebo, 1000, 5000 or 10 000 international units (IU) of oral vitamin D3 daily within each study centre (n = 23) and followed for up to 48 weeks. Between 2013 and 2021, we enrolled 204 participants. Brain MRI scans were performed at baseline, 24 and 48 weeks. The main study outcome was conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis based on the 2010 McDonald criteria defined as either a clinical relapse or new brain MRI T2 lesion development. We included 199 cases in the intention-to-treat analysis based on assigned dose. Of these, 116 converted to multiple sclerosis by 48 weeks (58%). Compared to placebo, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for conversion were 1000 IU 0.87 (0.50, 1.50); 5000 IU 1.37 (0.82, 2.29); and 10 000 IU 1.28 (0.76, 2.14). In an adjusted model including age, sex, latitude, study centre and baseline symptom number, clinically isolated syndrome onset site, presence of infratentorial lesions and use of steroids, the hazard ratios (versus placebo) were 1000 IU 0.80 (0.45, 1.44); 5000 IU 1.36 (0.78, 2.38); and 10 000 IU 1.07 (0.62, 1.85). Vitamin D3 supplementation was safe and well tolerated. We did not demonstrate reduction in multiple sclerosis disease activity by vitamin D3 supplementation after a high-risk clinically isolated syndrome.

Predictors of relapse risk and treatment response in AQP4-IgG positive and seronegative NMOSD: A multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) can be categorised into aquaporin-4 antibody (AQP4-IgG) NMOSD or seronegative NMOSD. While our knowledge of AQP4-IgG NMOSD has evolved significantly in the past decade, seronegative NMOSD remains less understood. This study aimed to evaluate the predictors of relapses and treatment responses in AQP4-IgG NMOSD and seronegative NMOSD. METHODS: This was a multicentre, international, retrospective cohort study using the MSBase registry. Recurrent relapse risk was assessed using an Andersen-Gill model and risk of first relapse was evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Covariates that putatively influence relapse risk included demographic factors, clinical characteristics and immunosuppressive therapies; the latter was assessed as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS: A total of 398 patients (246 AQP4-IgG NMOSD and 152 seronegative NMOSD) were included. The AQP4-IgG NMOSD and seronegative NMOSD patients did not significantly differ by age at disease onset, ethnicity or annualised relapse rate. Both low-efficacy and high-efficacy immunosuppressive therapies were associated with significant reductions in recurrent relapse risk, with notably greater protection conferred by high-efficacy therapies in both AQP4-IgG NMOSD (HR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15 to 0.49, p<0.001) and seronegative NMOSD (HR 0.21, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.51, p<0.001). Longer disease duration (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99, p<0.001) and male sex (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.34 to 0.84, p=0.007) were additional protective variables in reducing the recurrent relapse risk for the AQP4-IgG NMOSD group. CONCLUSION: Although further studies are needed to improve our understanding of seronegative NMOSD, our findings underscore the importance of aggressive treatment with high-efficacy immunotherapies in both NMOSD subtypes, regardless of serostatus.

Routine CSF parameters as predictors of disease course in multiple sclerosis: an MSBase cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters can serve as predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course. METHODS: This large-scale cohort study included persons with MS with CSF data documented in the MSBase registry. CSF parameters to predict time to reach confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4, 6 and 7 and annualised relapse rate in the first 2 years after diagnosis (ARR2) were assessed using (cox) regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 11 245 participants were included of which 93.7% (n=10 533) were persons with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). In RRMS, the presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) was associated with shorter time to disability milestones EDSS 4 (adjusted HR=1.272 (95% CI, 1.089 to 1.485), p=0.002), EDSS 6 (HR=1.314 (95% CI, 1.062 to 1.626), p=0.012) and EDSS 7 (HR=1.686 (95% CI, 1.111 to 2.558), p=0.014). On the other hand, the presence of CSF pleocytosis (≥5 cells/µL) increased time to moderate disability (EDSS 4) in RRMS (HR=0.774 (95% CI, 0.632 to 0.948), p=0.013). None of the CSF variables were associated with time to disability milestones in persons with primary progressive MS (PPMS). The presence of CSF pleocytosis increased ARR2 in RRMS (adjusted R2=0.036, p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In RRMS, the presence of CSF OCBs predicts shorter time to disability milestones, whereas CSF pleocytosis could be protective. This could however not be found in PPMS. CSF pleocytosis is associated with short-term inflammatory disease activity in RRMS. CSF analysis provides prognostic information which could aid in clinical and therapeutic decision-making.

Effectiveness of cladribine compared to fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Comparisons between cladribine and other potent immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis (MS) are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness of cladribine against fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting MS. METHODS: Patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with cladribine, fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab or alemtuzumab were identified in the global MSBase cohort and two additional UK centres. Patients were followed for ⩾6/12 and had ⩾3 in-person disability assessments. Patients were matched using propensity score. Four pairwise analyses compared annualised relapse rates (ARRs) and disability outcomes. RESULTS: The eligible cohorts consisted of 853 (fingolimod), 464 (natalizumab), 1131 (ocrelizumab), 123 (alemtuzumab) or 493 (cladribine) patients. Cladribine was associated with a lower ARR than fingolimod (0.07 vs. 0.12, p = 0.006) and a higher ARR than natalizumab (0.10 vs. 0.06, p = 0.03), ocrelizumab (0.09 vs. 0.05, p = 0.008) and alemtuzumab (0.17 vs. 0.04, p < 0.001). Compared to cladribine, the risk of disability worsening did not differ in patients treated with fingolimod (hazard ratio (HR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-2.47) or alemtuzumab (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.26-2.07), but was lower for patients treated with natalizumab (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94) and ocrelizumab (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.78). There was no evidence for a difference in disability improvement. CONCLUSION: Cladribine is an effective therapy that can be viewed as a step up in effectiveness from fingolimod, but is less effective than the most potent intravenous MS therapies.

Associations of postprandial ghrelin, liver-expressed antimicrobial peptide 2 and leptin levels with body composition, disease progression and survival in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Loss of appetite contributes to weight loss and faster disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Impairment of appetite control in ALS may include altered production or action of orexigenic (i.e., ghrelin) and anorexigenic (i.e., liver-expressed antimicrobial peptide 2 [LEAP2] and leptin) hormones. We aimed to determine if postprandial circulating ghrelin levels, LEAP2 levels, LEAP2:ghrelin molar ratio and leptin levels differ in ALS patients compared to non-neurodegenerative disease controls, and whether they are associated with disease progression and body composition. METHODS: In this prospective natural history study, we assessed postprandial plasma levels of ghrelin, LEAP2 and leptin in patients with ALS (cases; n = 46) and controls (controls; n = 43). For cases, measures were compared to changes in body weight, body composition and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Postprandial ghrelin level was decreased by 52% in cases compared to controls (p = 0.013). LEAP2:ghrelin molar ratio was increased by 249% (p = 0.009), suggesting greater ghrelin resistance. Patients with lower LEAP2:ghrelin tended to have better functional capacity at assessment, as inferred by the ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (τ = -0.179, p = 0.086). Furthermore, ghrelin and LEAP2:ghrelin molar ratio correlated with diagnostic delay (ghrelin, τ = 0.223, p = 0.029; LEAP2:ghrelin, τ = -0.213, p = 0.037). Baseline ghrelin level, LEAP2 level, LEAP2:ghrelin ratio and leptin level were, however, not predictive of change in functional capacity during follow-up. Also, patients with higher postprandial ghrelin levels (hazard ratio [HR] 1.375, p = 0.048), and lower LEAP2:ghelin ratios (HR 0.828, p = 0.051) had an increased risk of earlier death. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced postprandial ghrelin levels, coupled with increased LEAP2:ghrelin molar ratios, suggests a loss of ghrelin action in patients with ALS. Given ghrelin's actions on appetite, metabolism and neuroprotection, reduced ghrelin and greater ghrelin resistance could contribute to impaired capacity to tolerate the physiological impact of disease. Comprehensive studies are needed to explain how ghrelin and LEAP2 contribute to body weight regulation and disease progression in ALS.

General neurology: Current challenges and future implications.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In the coming decades, the world will face an increasing burden of neurological disorders (ND) and an urgent need to promote brain health. These challenges contrast with an insufficient neurological workforce in most countries, as well as decreasing numbers of general neurologists and neurologists attracted to work in general neurology (GN). This white paper aims to review the current situation of GN and reflect on its future. METHODS: The European Academy of Neurology (EAN) task force (TF) met nine times between November 2021 and June 2023. During the 2023 EAN annual meeting, attendees were asked to answer five questions concerning the future of GN. The document was sent for suggestions and eventually approval to the board and the presidents of the 47 national societies of the EAN. RESULTS: The TF first identified four relevant current and future challenges related to GN: (i) definition, (ii) practice, (iii) education, and (iv) research. The TF then identified seven initiatives to further develop GN at both the academic and community level. Finally, the TF formulated 16 recommendations to promote GN in the future. CONCLUSIONS: GN will remain essential in the coming decades to provide rapid, accessible, and comprehensive management of patients with ND that is affordable and cost-effective. There is also a need for research, education, and other initiatives aiming to facilitate improved working conditions, recognition, and prestige for those pursuing a career in GN.

Gut Symptoms, Gut Dysbiosis and Gut-Derived Toxins in ALS.

Many pathogenetic mechanisms have been proposed for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Recently, there have been emerging suggestions of a possible role for the gut microbiota. Gut microbiota have a range of functions and could influence ALS by several mechanisms. Here, we review the possible role of gut-derived neurotoxins/excitotoxins. We review the evidence of gut symptoms and gut dysbiosis in ALS. We then examine a possible role for gut-derived toxins by reviewing the evidence that these molecules are toxic to the central nervous system, evidence of their association with ALS, the existence of biochemical pathways by which these molecules could be produced by the gut microbiota and existence of mechanisms of transport from the gut to the blood and brain. We then present evidence that there are increased levels of these toxins in the blood of some ALS patients. We review the effects of therapies that attempt to alter the gut microbiota or ameliorate the biochemical effects of gut toxins. It is possible that gut dysbiosis contributes to elevated levels of toxins and that these could potentially contribute to ALS pathogenesis, but more work is required.

Longitudinal changes in intrinsic motoneuron excitability in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis are dependent on disease progression.

Increased amplitude of persistent inward currents (PICs) is observed in pre-symptomatic genetically modified SOD1 mice models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). However, at the symptomatic stage this reverses and there is a large reduction in PIC amplitude. It remains unclear whether these changes in PICs can be observed in humans, with cross-sectional studies in humans reporting contradictory findings. In people with ALS, we estimated the PIC contribution to self-sustained firing of motoneurons, using the paired-motor unit analysis to calculate the Δfrequency (ΔF), to compare the weaker and stronger muscles during the course of disease. We hypothesised that, with disease progression, ΔFs would relatively increase in the stronger muscles; and decline in the weaker muscles. Forty-three individuals with ALS were assessed in two occasions on average 17 weeks apart. Tibialis anterior high-density electromyograms were recorded during dorsiflexion (40% of maximal capacity) ramped contractions, followed by clinical tests. ∆F increased from 3.14 (2.57, 3.71) peaks per second (pps) to 3.55 (2.94, 4.17) pps on the stronger muscles (0.41 (0.041, 0.781) pps, standardised difference (d) = 0.287 (0.023, 0.552), P = 0.030). ∆F reduced from 3.38 (95% CI 2.92, 3.84) pps to 2.88 (2.40, 3.36) pps on the weaker muscles (-0.50 (-0.80, -0.21) pps, d = 0.353 (0.138, 0.567), P = 0.001). The ALSFRS-R score reduced 3.9 (2.3, 5.5) points. These data indicate that the contribution of PICs to motoneuron self-sustained firing increases over time in early stages of the disease when there is little weakness before decreasing as the disease progresses and muscle weakness exacerbates, in alignment with the findings from studies using SOD1 mice. KEY POINTS: Research on mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) suggests that the amplitude of persistent inward currents (PICs) is increased in early stages before decreasing as the disease progresses. Cross-sectional studies in humans have reported contradictory findings with both higher and lower PIC contributions to motoneuron self-sustained firing. In this longitudinal (∼17 weeks) study we tracked changes in PIC contribution to motoneuron self-sustained firing, using the ΔF calculation (i.e. onset-offset hysteresis of motor unit pairs), in tibialis anterior muscles with normal strength and with clinical signs of weakness in people with ALS. ΔFs decreased over time in muscles with clinical signs of weakness. The PIC contribution to motoneuron self-sustained firing increases before the onset of muscle weakness, and subsequently decreases when muscle weakness progresses.

Heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories in patients with secondary progressive MS: a latent class analysis from Big MS Data network.

BACKGROUND: Over the decades, several natural history studies on patients with primary (PPMS) or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) were reported from international registries. In PPMS, a consistent heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories was demonstrated. The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of patients with SPMS with similar longitudinal trajectories of disability over time. METHODS: All patients with MS collected within Big MS registries who received an SPMS diagnosis from physicians (cohort 1) or satisfied the Lorscheider criteria (cohort 2) were considered. Longitudinal Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were modelled by a latent class growth analysis (LCGA), using a non-linear function of time from the first EDSS visit in the range 3-4. RESULTS: A total of 3613 patients with SPMS were included in the cohort 1. LCGA detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=1297; 35.9%), a moderate (n=1936; 53.6%) and a severe (n=380; 10.5%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 6 was 12.1, 5.0 and 1.7 years, for the three groups, respectively; the probability to reach EDSS 6 at 8 years was 14.4%, 78.4% and 98.3%, respectively. Similar results were found among 7613 patients satisfying the Lorscheider criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to previous interpretations, patients with SPMS progress at greatly different rates. Our identification of distinct trajectories can guide better patient selection in future phase 3 SPMS clinical trials. Additionally, distinct trajectories could reflect heterogeneous pathological mechanisms of progression.

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Lower hypothalamic volume with lower body mass index is associated with shorter survival in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Weight loss in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is associated with faster disease progression and shorter survival. Decreased hypothalamic volume is proposed to contribute to weight loss due to loss of appetite and/or hypermetabolism. We aimed to investigate the relationship between hypothalamic volume and body mass index (BMI) in ALS and Alzheimer's disease (AD), and the associations of hypothalamic volume with weight loss, appetite, metabolism and survival in patients with ALS. METHODS: We compared hypothalamic volumes from magnetic resonance imaging scans with BMI for patients with ALS (n = 42), patients with AD (n = 167) and non-neurodegenerative disease controls (n = 527). Hypothalamic volumes from patients with ALS were correlated with measures of appetite and metabolism, and change in anthropomorphic measures and disease outcomes. RESULTS: Lower hypothalamic volume was associated with lower and higher BMI in ALS (quadratic association; probability of direction = 0.96). This was not observed in AD patients or controls. Hypothalamic volume was not associated with loss of appetite (p = 0.58) or hypermetabolism (p = 0.49). Patients with lower BMI and lower hypothalamic volume tended to lose weight (p = 0.08) and fat mass (p = 0.06) over the course of their disease, and presented with an increased risk of earlier death (hazard ratio [HR] 3.16, p = 0.03). Lower hypothalamic volume alone trended for greater risk of earlier death (HR 2.61, p = 0.07). CONCLUSION: These observations suggest that lower hypothalamic volume in ALS contributes to positive and negative energy balance, and  is not universally associated with loss of appetite or hypermetabolism. Critically, lower hypothalamic volume with lower BMI was associated with weight loss and earlier death.

Bi-allelic loss-of-function OBSCN variants predispose individuals to severe recurrent rhabdomyolysis.

Rhabdomyolysis is the acute breakdown of skeletal myofibres in response to an initiating factor, most commonly toxins and over exertion. A variety of genetic disorders predispose to rhabdomyolysis through different pathogenic mechanisms, particularly in patients with recurrent episodes. However, most cases remain without a genetic diagnosis. Here we present six patients who presented with severe and recurrent rhabdomyolysis, usually with onset in the teenage years; other features included a history of myalgia and muscle cramps. We identified 10 bi-allelic loss-of-function variants in the gene encoding obscurin (OBSCN) predisposing individuals to recurrent rhabdomyolysis. We show reduced expression of OBSCN and loss of obscurin protein in patient muscle. Obscurin is proposed to be involved in sarcoplasmic reticulum function and Ca2+ handling. Patient cultured myoblasts appear more susceptible to starvation as evidenced by a greater decreased in sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ content compared to control myoblasts. This likely reflects a lower efficiency when pumping Ca2+ back into the sarcoplasmic reticulum and/or a decrease in Ca2+ sarcoplasmic reticulum storage ability when metabolism is diminished. OSBCN variants have previously been associated with cardiomyopathies. None of the patients presented with a cardiomyopathy and cardiac examinations were normal in all cases in which cardiac function was assessed. There was also no history of cardiomyopathy in first degree relatives, in particular in any of the carrier parents. This cohort is relatively young, thus follow-up studies and the identification of additional cases with bi-allelic null OBSCN variants will further delineate OBSCN-related disease and the clinical course of disease.

Prediction of multiple sclerosis outcomes when switching to ocrelizumab.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) are switched to highly effective disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) such as ocrelizumab. OBJECTIVE: To determine predictors of relapse and disability progression when switching from another DMT to ocrelizumab. METHODS: Patients with RRMS who switched to ocrelizumab were identified from the MSBase Registry and grouped by prior disease-modifying therapy (pDMT; interferon-ß/glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, fingolimod or natalizumab) and washout duration (<1 month, 1-2 months or 2-6 months). Survival analyses including multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify predictors of on-ocrelizumab relapse within 1 year, and 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP). RESULTS: After adjustment, relapse hazard when switching from fingolimod was greater than other pDMTs, but only in the first 3 months of ocrelizumab therapy (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.57-11.11, p = 0.004). The adjusted hazard for CDP was significantly higher with longer washout (2-6 m compared to <1 m: HR = 9.57, 95% CI = 1.92-47.64, p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: The risk of disability worsening during switch to ocrelizumab is reduced by short treatment gaps. Patients who cease fingolimod are at heightened relapse risk in the first 3 months on ocrelizumab. Prospective evaluation of strategies such as washout reduction may help optimise this switch.

Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

Age of Onset and Length of Survival of Queensland Patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Details of Subjects with Early Onset and Subjects with Long Survival.

INTRODUCTION: The aims of the study were to document the characteristics of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients in Queensland, to examine factors influencing age of onset, and survival, and to study those with early-onset (<45 years) disease and those with long (>5 years) survival. METHODS: We studied subjects seen at the ALS Clinic at the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital. We recorded sex, age of onset, region of onset, length of survival, presence of family history, type of disease, and evidence of cognitive involvement. We analysed the influence of these features on age of onset and survival. We analysed the features of patients with early onset of disease and patients with long survival. RESULTS: There were 855 ALS patients (505 males) in the cohort. The age of onset was lower in males than females, in patients with a family history of ALS compared to those without, and in patients with spinal onset compared to bulbar onset. Early-onset disease was seen in 10% of patients, and had a greater proportion of males, spinal onset, and classical ALS phenotype compared to late-onset disease. Survival was shorter in females, in patients with bulbar onset, and in patients with classical ALS. Long survival was seen in 18% of patients. Patients with long survival had younger age of onset, greater proportion of males, spinal onset, and fewer patients with classical ALS. CONCLUSION: Our study confirms that ALS is more prevalent in males and that spinal onset is more common than bulbar onset. Males have earlier onset but longer survival. We found that overall, patients with classical ALS have worse survival than ALS variants, but some patients who were considered to have classical ALS had long survival. This study confirms the similarity of ALS in our region to ALS in other geographical regions.

The potential interplay between energy metabolism and innate complement activation in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal and rapidly progressing motor neuron disease without effective treatment. Although the precise mechanisms leading to ALS are yet to be determined, there is now increasing evidence implicating the defective energy metabolism and components of the innate immune complement system in the onset and progression of its motor phenotypes. This review will survey the mechanisms by which the energy metabolism and the complement system are altered during the disease progression of ALS and how it can contribute to disease. Furthermore, it will also examine how complement activation can modify the energy metabolism in metabolic disorders, in order to highlight how the complement system and energy metabolism may be linked in ALS.

Real-world effectiveness of cladribine for Australian patients with multiple sclerosis: An MSBase registry substudy.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Observational clinical data from cladribine-treated patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recorded in the Australian MS registry powered by the MSBase registry platform (5-year follow-up) and analysed to complement information from the pivotal cladribine clinical trials in MS. METHODS: A cohort of 90 cladribine-treated patients with follow-up data reported by treating physicians and recorded in the Australian MSBase registry (database lock February 2016) were examined. Clinical data included Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, relapses and other disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) administered before and after cladribine treatment. RESULTS: Mean age on starting cladribine was 47 years; mean age at MS onset was 34 years, and median baseline EDSS score was 5.25. Disability trajectories in patients with sufficient follow-up suggested an overall increasing trend prior to cladribine treatment which was reduced during the 2-year post-treatment. Approximately 80% of patients were EDSS progression-free, 65% remained relapse-free after 2 years and median time to next DMD was 1.7 years. CONCLUSION: These observational data suggest a disease-modifying effect in this cohort of relapsing MS patients characterised by older and more disabled patients. Since these data represent a single-arm cohort, clinical trials and larger comparative post-marketing studies are needed to validate and extend these findings.

Prediction of on-treatment disability worsening in RRMS with the MAGNIMS score.

BACKGROUND: The magnetic resonance imaging in multiple sclerosis (MAGNIMS) score combines relapses and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions to predict disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with interferon-ß. OBJECTIVE: To validate the MAGNIMS score and extend to other disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). To examine the prognostic value of gadolinium contrast-enhancing (Gd+) lesions. METHODS: This RRMS MSBase cohort study (n = 2293) used a Cox model to examine the prognostic value of relapses, MRI activity and the MAGNIMS score for disability worsening during treatment with interferon-ß and three other DMTs. RESULTS: Three new T2 lesions (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.60, p = 0.028) or two relapses (HR = 2.24, p = 0.002) on interferon-ß (for 12 months) were predictive of disability worsening over 4 years. MAGNIMS score = 2 (1 relapse and ⩾3 T2 lesions or ⩾2 relapses) was associated with a greater risk of disability worsening on interferon-ß (HR = 2.0, p = 0.001). In pooled cohort of four DMTs, similar associations were seen (MAGNIMS score = 2: HR = 1.72, p = 0.001). Secondary analyses demonstrated that the addition of Gd+ to the MAGNIMS did not materially improve its prediction of disability worsening. CONCLUSION: We have validated the MAGNIMS score in RRMS and extended its application to three other DMTs: 1 relapse and ⩾3 T2 lesions or ⩾2 relapses predicted worsening of disability. Contrast-enhancing lesions did not substantially improve the prognostic score.

Disability outcomes of early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cerebellar and brainstem symptoms are common in early stages of multiple sclerosis (MS) yet their prognostic values remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate long-term disability outcomes in patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms. METHODS: This study used data from MSBase registry. Patients with early cerebellar/brainstem presentations were identified as those with cerebellar/brainstem relapse(s) or functional system score ⩾ 2 in the initial 2 years. Early pyramidal presentation was chosen as a comparator. Andersen-Gill models were used to compare cumulative hazards of (1) disability progression events and (2) relapses between patients with and without early cerebellar/brainstem symptoms. Mixed effect models were used to estimate the associations between early cerebellar/brainstem presentations and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 10,513 eligible patients, including 2723 and 3915 patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms, respectively. Early cerebellar presentation was associated with greater hazard of progression events (HR = 1.37, p < 0.001) and EDSS (ß = 0.16, p < 0.001). Patients with early brainstem symptoms had lower hazard of progression events (HR = 0.89, p = 0.01) and EDSS (ß = -0.06, p < 0.001). Neither presentation was associated with changes in relapse risk. CONCLUSION: Early cerebellar presentation is associated with unfavourable outcomes, while early brainstem presentation is associated with favourable prognosis. These presentations may be used as MS prognostic markers and guide therapeutic approach.