Improved survival for individuals with common chronic conditions in the Medicare population.

It is well established that the United States lags behind peer nations in life expectancy, but it is less established that there is heterogeneity in life expectancy trends. We compared mortality trends from 2004 to 2014 for the United States with 17 high-income countries for persons under and over 65. The United States ranked last in survival gains for the young but ranked near the middle for persons over 65, the group with universal access to public insurance. To explore the over-65 mortality trend, we estimated Cox proportional hazards models for individuals soon after entering Medicare. These were estimated separately by race and sex, controlling for 26 chronic conditions and condition-specific time trends. The separate regressions enabled survival comparisons for the 2004 and 2014 cohorts by race and sex, conditional on baseline health. We predicted 5-year survival for all combinations of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and ischemic heart disease (IHD). All 16 combinations of these conditions showed survival gains, with diabetes as a key driver. Notably, survival improved and racial disparities narrowed for individuals with diabetes, hypertension, and IHD. White females, black females, white males, and black males gained 3.61, 3.90, 3.57, and 5.89 percentage points in 5-year survival, respectively.

Preparedness of Americans for the Affordable Care Act.

This paper investigates whether individuals are sufficiently informed to make reasonable choices in the health insurance exchanges established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA). We document knowledge of health reform, health insurance literacy, and expected changes in healthcare using a nationally representative survey of the US population in the 5 wk before the introduction of the exchanges, with special attention to subgroups most likely to be affected by the ACA. Results suggest that a substantial share of the population is unprepared to navigate the new exchanges. One-half of the respondents did not know about the exchanges, and 42% could not correctly describe a deductible. Those earning 100-250% of federal poverty level (FPL) correctly answered, on average, 4 out of 11 questions about health reform and 4.6 out of 7 questions about health insurance. This compares with 6.1 and 5.9 correct answers, respectively, for those in the top income category (400% of FPL or more). Even after controlling for potential confounders, a low-income person is 31% less likely to score above the median on ACA knowledge questions, and 54% less likely to score above the median on health insurance knowledge than a person in the top income category. Uninsured respondents scored lower on health insurance knowledge, but their knowledge of ACA is similar to the overall population. We propose that simplified options, decision aids, and health insurance product design to address the limited understanding of health insurance contracts will be crucial for ACA's success.

Subjective mortality risk and bequests.

This paper investigates the ability of subjective expectations about life expectancy to predict wealth holding patterns in later life. Based on panel data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old, we estimate a structural life-cycle model with bequests. Each individual's subjective survival rates in the future are estimated with data on his belief of survival probabilities to a target age. This estimation is build upon a Bayesian updating method developed in Gan et al. (2005). We find that life-cycle model using subjective survival rates performs better than using life-table survival rates in predicting wealth holdings. This result suggests that subjective survival expectations play an important role in deciding consumption and savings. In addition, the estimation results show that most bequests are involuntary or accidental.

Social support and trauma experiences of imprisoned men in Northern Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Social Support has multiple benefits for health and mental wellbeing. Its existence, and the extent to which it can be beneficial, is dependent upon the context in which it is provided, and the recipients' view of it. Social support has long been established as a 'buffer' to the negative impact of stressful life experiences. Trauma can negatively impact upon social support, reducing the extent of social networks and ability of some trauma experienced individuals to sustain extensive social support networks. However, some trauma experiences can also strengthen social relationships. Imprisoned men are disproportionately likely to have experienced a traumatic event when compared with the general population. Past research has found that traumatic events can lead to a decrease in social support among imprisoned men but more research is needed to understand the variations in perceived social support experienced by imprisoned men and to determine how different types of trauma may be related to perceived social support. METHOD: A cross-sectional survey of 384 adult men detained in the Northern Ireland Prison Service was conducted between November 2022 and January 2023. The survey collected data on the men's demographics, mental health, substance use, and criminal history. Respondents were also asked to complete a Trauma History Questionnaire (THQ) and the Multi-dimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS). Regression analysis was then used to investigate the possible associations between individual characteristics, different types of trauma experiences and perceived social support. RESULTS: Most types of trauma experiences were not associated with lower levels of perceived social support. Only those who had experienced crime related trauma were more likely to report lower levels of social support. Older imprisoned men and those using substances were more likely to report lower levels of perceived social support, while those who had served a sentence of less than one year reported higher levels of perceived social support. DISCUSSION: Crime related trauma experiences were found to be associated with lower levels of perceived social support. There were no significant findings around perceived social support and any of the other trauma types i.e. physical, sexual and general disaster experiences. Trauma informed policy responses should be cognisant of this, as those with experiences of crime related victimisation are less likely to have the social support needed to buffer against future trauma experiences. The findings demonstrate that some individuals experience lower levels of perceived social support and several factors are associated with this including age, time served and substance use history. This will potentially impact upon them during release and affect their reintegration into society. Specific policies aimed at these groups should be considered to prevent them from experiencing a lack of support and any accompanying adversity upon release.

Genesis of change: Substance use treatment for forensic patients with mental health concerns.

Substance use disorders are highly prevalent among forensic patients. They are associated with many challenges for patients with these problems, including their ability to rehabilitate and successfully move through secure forensic mental health services, as well as increasing risk for recidivism. Traditionally, forensic services have been more adept at focusing on and treating the primary mental health diagnosis alone and have been less likely to prioritise this co-occurring patient need. Opportunities exist to foster effective treatment strategies for substance use disorders, and past research has produced positive outcomes among forensic patients in studies in both Australia and the UK to navigate a new course for patients with these problems. By providing empirically validated, co-produced and culturally competent treatment responses, forensic patients living with substance use disorders will have the opportunity to significantly improve their wellbeing and progress through the system. They will also be more prepared and equipped to face challenges upon discharge into the community, including increased availability of alcohol and other drugs, social stigma and barriers to employment. Moreover, by prioritising effective substance use treatment programs during inpatient rehabilitation, services can reduce the levels of post-discharge recidivism.

A Cross-Sectional Examination of the Mental Wellbeing, Coping and Quality of Working Life in Health and Social Care Workers in the UK at Two Time Points of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve around the world, it is important to examine its effect on societies and individuals, including health and social care (HSC) professionals. The aim of this study was to compare cross-sectional data collected from HSC staff in the UK at two time points during the COVID-19 pandemic: Phase 1 (May-July 2020) and Phase 2 (November 2020-January 2021). The HSC staff surveyed consisted of nurses, midwives, allied health professionals, social care workers and social workers from across the UK (England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland). Multiple regressions were used to examine the effects of different coping strategies and demographic and work-related variables on participants' wellbeing and quality of working life to see how and if the predictors changed over time. An additional multiple regression was used to directly examine the effects of time (Phase 1 vs. Phase 2) on the outcome variables. Findings suggested that both wellbeing and quality of working life deteriorated from Phase 1 to Phase 2. The results have the potential to inform interventions for HSC staff during future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, other infectious outbreaks or even other circumstances putting long-term pressures on HSC systems.

Toward a 21st-century health care system: recommendations for health care reform.

The coverage, cost, and quality problems of the U.S. health care system are evident. Sustainable health care reform must go beyond financing expanded access to care to substantially changing the organization and delivery of care. The FRESH-Thinking Project (www.fresh-thinking.org) held a series of workshops during which physicians, health policy experts, health insurance executives, business leaders, hospital administrators, economists, and others who represent diverse perspectives came together. This group agreed that the following 8 recommendations are fundamental to successful reform: 1. Replace the current fee-for-service payment system with a payment system that encourages and rewards innovation in the efficient delivery of quality care. The new payment system should invest in the development of outcome measures to guide payment. 2. Establish a securely funded, independent agency to sponsor and evaluate research on the comparative effectiveness of drugs, devices, and other medical interventions. 3. Simplify and rationalize federal and state laws and regulations to facilitate organizational innovation, support care coordination, and streamline financial and administrative functions. 4. Develop a health information technology infrastructure with national standards of interoperability to promote data exchange. 5. Create a national health database with the participation of all payers, delivery systems, and others who own health care data. Agree on methods to make de-identified information from this database on clinical interventions, patient outcomes, and costs available to researchers. 6. Identify revenue sources, including a cap on the tax exclusion of employer-based health insurance, to subsidize health care coverage with the goal of insuring all Americans. 7. Create state or regional insurance exchanges to pool risk, so that Americans without access to employer-based or other group insurance could obtain a standard benefits package through these exchanges. Employers should also be allowed to participate in these exchanges for their employees' coverage. 8. Create a health coverage board with broad stakeholder representation to determine and periodically update the affordable standard benefit package available through state or regional insurance exchanges.

Plan selection in Medicare Part D: evidence from administrative data.

We study the Medicare Part D prescription drug insurance program as a bellwether for designs of private, non-mandatory health insurance markets, focusing on the ability of consumers to evaluate and optimize their choices of plans. Our analysis of administrative data on medical claims in Medicare Part D suggests that fewer than 25% of individuals enroll in plans that are ex ante as good as the least cost plan specified by the Plan Finder tool made available to seniors by the Medicare administration, and that consumers on average have expected excess spending of about $300 per year, or about 15% of expected total out-of-pocket cost for drugs and Part D insurance. These numbers are hard to reconcile with decision costs alone; it appears that unless a sizeable fraction of consumers place large values on plan features other than cost, they are not optimizing effectively.

Suit the action to the word, the word to the action: Hypothetical choices and real decisions in Medicare Part D.

In recent years, consumer choice has become an important element of public policy. One reason is that consumers differ in their tastes and needs, which they can express most easily through their own choices. Elements that strengthen consumer choice feature prominently in the design of public insurance markets, for instance in the United States in the recent introduction of prescription drug coverage for older individuals via Medicare Part D. For policy makers who design such a market, an important practical question in the design phase of such a new program is how to deduce enrollment and plan selection preferences prior to its introduction. In this paper, we investigate whether hypothetical choice experiments can serve as a tool in this process. We combine data from hypothetical and real plan choices, elicited around the time of the introduction of Medicare Part D. We first analyze how well the hypothetical choice data predict willingness to pay and market shares at the aggregate level. We then analyze predictions at the individual level, in particular how insurance demand varies with observable characteristics. We also explore whether the extent of adverse selection can be predicted using hypothetical choice data alone.

Exenatide therapy and the risk of pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer in a privately insured population.

BACKGROUND: Postmarketing reports have linked exenatide use with acute pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer, but a definitive relationship has yet to be established. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of patients with type 2 diabetes with employer-provided health insurance from 2007 to 2009. Multivariate models estimated the association between exenatide use and acute pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer. We required at least 1 year of exenatide exposure in the pancreatic cancer analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted that quasirandomized exenatide use based on patient out-of-pocket costs. RESULTS: Among 268,561 patients included in the acute pancreatitis analysis, only 2.6% used exenatide. Hospitalization for acute pancreatitis was rare (0.247% of patients). In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, patients who did not use exenatide were more likely to be hospitalized for acute pancreatitis (0.249% vs. 0.196% in unadjusted analysis), but the difference was not statistically significant in either analysis (P = 0.22 and P = 0.70, respectively). Among 209,306 patients in the pancreatic cancer analysis, 0.070% were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, and 0.88% had at least 1 year of continuous exenatide exposure prior to the diagnosis. Those with exenatide exposure had higher rates of pancreatic cancer compared with those without (0.081% vs. 0.070% in unadjusted analysis). In both unadjusted and adjusted analyses, the difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.80 and P = 0.46, respectively). In sensitivity analyses, results were similar. CONCLUSIONS: We found no association between exenatide use and either hospitalization for acute pancreatitis or pancreatic cancer in a large sample of privately insured U.S. patients.

Who failed to enroll in Medicare Part D, and why? Early results.

Early results on the Medicare Part D prescription drug program, from a survey of people age sixty-five and older who were interviewed just before enrollment started and just after it ended, indicate that Medicare has met its target of 90 percent coverage. Enrollment rates in vulnerable subpopulations-poor health, low income, or cognitive impairment-are almost high enough to offset lower rates of other coverage. However, sizable numbers of elderly people remain uncovered, contrary to their self-interest. Seniors give Part D mixed reviews, and majorities are less satisfied with Medicare and with the government as a result of their experience with this program.

Medicare prescription drug coverage: consumer information and preferences.

We investigate prescription drug use, and information and enrollment intentions for the new Medicare Part D drug insurance program, using a sample of Medicare-eligible subjects surveyed before open enrollment began for this program. We find that, despite the complexity of competing plans offered by private insurers under Part D, a majority of the Medicare population had information on this program and a substantial majority planned to enroll. We find that virtually all elderly, even those with no current prescription drug use, can expect to benefit from enrollment in a Part D Standard plan at the low premiums available in the current market. However, there is a significant risk that many eligible seniors, particularly low-income elderly with poor health or cognitive impairment, will make poor enrollment and plan choices.

The educative impact of health care treatment on malarial prevention behavior for the poor in Guinea, West Africa.

We analyze the malarial health behavior of rural populations by using data from the 1999 Demographic and Health Survey for Guinea, West Africa. We find that prior formal health care treatment is associated with heightened malaria prevention behaviors for the poorest uneducated populations in this rural cohort. Individuals from this subgroup that report no history of malarial infection and exclude themselves from health care treatment further appear to be misdiagnosing the disease at a substantial level. We conjecture that the use of formal health care options provides informational exposure to the clinical aspects of malarial pathogenesis. For individuals steeped in the most severe poverty, this exposure appears to have a particularly robust educative effect. The health behavioral dynamics we observe here have putative extensions for regional health policy as well with other infectious diseases, such as HIV/AIDS.