Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities.

As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiagvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Multi-omics of permafrost, active layer and thermokarst bog soil microbiomes.

Over 20% of Earth's terrestrial surface is underlain by permafrost with vast stores of carbon that, once thawed, may represent the largest future transfer of carbon from the biosphere to the atmosphere. This process is largely dependent on microbial responses, but we know little about microbial activity in intact, let alone in thawing, permafrost. Molecular approaches have recently revealed the identities and functional gene composition of microorganisms in some permafrost soils and a rapid shift in functional gene composition during short-term thaw experiments. However, the fate of permafrost carbon depends on climatic, hydrological and microbial responses to thaw at decadal scales. Here we use the combination of several molecular 'omics' approaches to determine the phylogenetic composition of the microbial communities, including several draft genomes of novel species, their functional potential and activity in soils representing different states of thaw: intact permafrost, seasonally thawed active layer and thermokarst bog. The multi-omics strategy reveals a good correlation of process rates to omics data for dominant processes, such as methanogenesis in the bog, as well as novel survival strategies for potentially active microbes in permafrost.

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

Mycobiont contribution to tundra plant acquisition of permafrost-derived nitrogen.

As Arctic soils warm, thawed permafrost releases nitrogen (N) that could stimulate plant productivity and thus offset soil carbon losses from tundra ecosystems. Although mycorrhizal fungi could facilitate plant access to permafrost-derived N, their exploration capacity beyond host plant root systems into deep, cold active layer soils adjacent to the permafrost table is unknown. We characterized root-associated fungi (RAF) that colonized ericoid (ERM) and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) shrub roots and occurred below the maximum rooting depth in permafrost thaw-front soil in tussock and shrub tundra communities. We explored the relationships between root and thaw front fungal composition and plant uptake of a 15 N tracer applied at the permafrost boundary. We show that ERM and ECM shrubs associate with RAF at the thaw front providing evidence for potential mycelial connectivity between roots and the permafrost boundary. Among shrubs and tundra communities, RAF connectivity to the thaw boundary was ubiquitous. The occurrence of particular RAF in both roots and thaw front soil was positively correlated with 15 N recovered in shrub biomass Taxon-specific RAF associations could be a mechanism for the vertical redistribution of deep, permafrost-derived nutrients, which may alleviate N limitation and stimulate productivity in warming tundra.

Comparing the efficacy and tolerability of biologic therapies in psoriasis: an updated network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The rapid expansion of psoriasis biologics has led to an urgent need to understand their relative efficacy and tolerability to inform treatment decisions better and, specifically, to inform guideline development. OBJECTIVES: To update a 2017 meta-analysis on the comparative efficacy and tolerability of biologic treatments for psoriasis. METHODS: We searched the MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases for randomized controlled trials (RCTs), published up to 7 September 2018, of 11 licensed, NICE-approved biologics targeting tumour necrosis factor (adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, certolizumab pegol), interleukin (IL)-12/IL-23p40 (ustekinumab), IL-17A (secukinumab, ixekizumab), IL-17RA (brodalumab) and IL-23p19 (guselkumab, tildrakizumab, risankizumab). A frequentist network meta-analysis ascertained direct or indirect evidence comparing biologics with one another, methotrexate or placebo. This was combined with hierarchical cluster analyses to consider efficacy (≥ 90% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI 90) or Physician's Global Assessment 0 or 1; PASI 75; Dermatology Life Quality Index improvement) and tolerability (drug withdrawal due to adverse events) outcomes at 10-16 weeks, followed by assessments of study quality, heterogeneity and inconsistency. RESULTS: We identified 62 RCTs presenting data on direct comparisons (31 899 participants). All biologics were efficacious compared with placebo or methotrexate at 10-16 weeks. Hierarchical cluster analyses revealed that adalimumab, brodalumab, certolizumab pegol, guselkumab, risankizumab, secukinumab, tildrakizumab and ustekinumab were comparable with respect to high short-term efficacy and tolerability. Infliximab and ixekizumab clustered together, with high short-term efficacy but relatively lower tolerability than the other agents, although the number of drug withdrawal events across the network was low, so these findings should be treated with caution. CONCLUSIONS: Using our methodology we found that most biologics cluster together with respect to short-term efficacy and tolerability, and we did not identify any single agent as 'best'. These data need to be interpreted in the context of longer-term efficacy, effectiveness data, safety, posology and drug acquisition costs when making treatment decisions.

Quantifying Argonaute 2 (Ago2) expression to stratify breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Argonaute-2 (Ago2) is an essential component of microRNA biogenesis implicated in tumourigenesis. However Ago2 expression and localisation in breast cancer remains undetermined. The aim was to define Ago2 expression (mRNA and protein) and localisation in breast cancer, and investigate associations with clinicopathological details. METHODS: Ago2 protein was stained in breast cancer cell lines and tissue microarrays (TMAs), with intensity and localization assessed. Staining intensity was correlated with clinicopathological details. Using independent databases, Ago2 mRNA expression and gene alterations in breast cancer were investigated. RESULTS: In the breast cancer TMAs, 4 distinct staining intensities were observed (Negative, Weak, Moderate, Strong), with 64.2% of samples stained weak or negatively for Ago2 protein. An association was found between strong Ago2 staining and, the Her2 positive or basal subtypes, and between Ago2 intensity and receptor status (Estrogen or Progesterone). In tumours Ago2 mRNA expression correlated with reduced relapse free survival. Conversely, Ago2 mRNA was expressed significantly lower in SK-BR-3 (HER2 positive) and BT-20 (Basal/Triple negative) cell lines. Interestingly, high levels of Ago2 gene amplification (10-27%) were observed in breast cancer across multiple patient datasets. Importantly, knowledge of Ago2 expression improves predictions of breast cancer subtype by 20%, ER status by 15.7% and PR status by 17.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of Ago2 improves the stratification of breast cancer and suggests a differential role for Ago2 in breast cancer subtypes, based on levels and cellular localisation. Further investigation of the mechanisms affecting Ago2 dysregulation will reveal insights into the molecular differences underpinning breast cancer subtypes.

Fuel-reduction management alters plant composition, carbon and nitrogen pools, and soil thaw in Alaskan boreal forest.

Increasing wildfire activity in Alaska's boreal forests has led to greater fuel-reduction management. Management has been implemented to reduce wildfire spread, but the ecological impacts of these practices are poorly known. We quantified the effects of hand-thinning and shearblading on above- and belowground stand characteristics, plant species composition, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools, and soil thaw across 19 sites dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana) in interior Alaska treated 2-12 years prior to sampling. The density of deciduous tree seedlings was significantly higher in shearbladed areas compared to unmanaged forest (6.4 vs. 0.1 stems/m2 ), and unmanaged stands exhibited the highest mean density of conifer seedlings and layers (1.4 stems/m2 ). Understory plant community composition was most similar between unmanaged and thinned stands. Shearblading resulted in a near complete loss of aboveground tree biomass C pools while thinning approximately halved the C pool size (1.2 kg C/m2 compared to 3.1 kg C/m2 in unmanaged forest). Significantly smaller soil organic layer (SOL) C and N pools were observed in shearbladed stands (3.2 kg C/m2 and 116.8 g N/m2 ) relative to thinned (6.0 kg C/m2 and 192.2 g N/m2 ) and unmanaged (5.9 kg C/m2 and 178.7 g N/m2 ) stands. No difference in C and N pool sizes in the uppermost 10 cm of mineral soil was observed among stand types. Total C stocks for measured pools was 2.6 kg C/m2 smaller in thinned stands and 5.8 kg C/m2 smaller in shearbladed stands when compared to unmanaged forest. Soil thaw depth averaged 13 cm deeper in thinned areas and 46 cm deeper in shearbladed areas relative to adjacent unmanaged stands, although variability was high across sites. Deeper soil thaw was linked to shallower SOL depth for unmanaged stands and both management types, however for any given SOL depth, thaw tended to be deeper in shearbladed areas compared to unmanaged forest. These findings indicate that fuel-reduction management alters plant community composition, C and N pools, and soil thaw depth, with consequences for ecosystem structure and function beyond those intended for fire management.

The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska.

It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km2 ), are influencing and will influence state-wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period (1950-2009) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store ~50 Pg C (with ~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (-6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010-2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO2 fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO2 , we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO2 increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO2 sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO2 to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional.

The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska.

Wetlands are critical terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska, covering ~177,000 km2 , an area greater than all the wetlands in the remainder of the United States. To assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration, and fire regime on carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of Alaska, a modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used. Spatially explicit simulations were conducted at 1-km resolution for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). Simulations estimated that wetland ecosystems of Alaska lost 175 Tg carbon (C) in the historical period. Ecosystem C storage in 2009 was 5,556 Tg, with 89% of the C stored in soils. The estimated loss of C as CO2 and biogenic methane (CH4 ) emissions resulted in wetlands of Alaska increasing the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. Simulations for the projection period were conducted for six climate change scenarios constructed from two climate models forced under three CO2 emission scenarios. Ecosystem C storage averaged among climate scenarios increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 to 4.42 Tg C/yr. These increases were driven primarily by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than losses from increased decomposition and fire. The NPP increase was driven by CO2 fertilization (~5% per 100 parts per million by volume increase) and by increases in air temperature (~1% per °C increase). Increases in air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations (~15% per °C increase). Ecosystem CO2 sequestration offset the increase in CH4 emissions during the 21st century to decrease the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. However, beyond 2100, we expect that this forcing will ultimately increase as wetland ecosystems transition from being a sink to a source of atmospheric CO2 because of (1) decreasing sensitivity of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO2 , (2) increasing availability of soil C for decomposition as permafrost thaws, and (3) continued positive sensitivity of biogenic CH4 emissions to increases in soil temperature.

Assessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications.

We summarize the results of a recent interagency assessment of land carbon dynamics in Alaska, in which carbon dynamics were estimated for all major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for the historical period (1950-2009) and a projection period (2010-2099). Between 1950 and 2009, upland and wetland (i.e., terrestrial) ecosystems of the state gained 0.4 Tg C/yr (0.1% of net primary production, NPP), resulting in a cumulative greenhouse gas radiative forcing of 1.68 × 10-3  W/m2 . The change in carbon storage is spatially variable with the region of the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) losing carbon because of fire disturbance. The combined carbon transport via various pathways through inland aquatic ecosystems of Alaska was estimated to be 41.3 Tg C/yr (17% of terrestrial NPP). During the projection period (2010-2099), carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska was projected to increase (22.5-70.0 Tg C/yr), primarily because of NPP increases of 10-30% associated with responses to rising atmospheric CO2 , increased nitrogen cycling, and longer growing seasons. Although carbon emissions to the atmosphere from wildfire and wetland CH4 were projected to increase for all of the climate projections, the increases in NPP more than compensated for those losses at the statewide level. Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems continue to warm the climate for four of the six future projections and cool the climate for only one of the projections. The attribution analyses we conducted indicated that the response of NPP in terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO2 (~5% per 100 ppmv CO2 ) saturates as CO2 increases (between approximately +150 and +450 ppmv among projections). This response, along with the expectation that permafrost thaw would be much greater and release large quantities of permafrost carbon after 2100, suggests that projected carbon gains in terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska may not be sustained. From a national perspective, inclusion of all of Alaska in greenhouse gas inventory reports would ensure better accounting of the overall greenhouse gas balance of the nation and provide a foundation for considering mitigation activities in areas that are accessible enough to support substantive deployment.

Biodiversity influences plant productivity through niche-efficiency.

The loss of biodiversity is threatening ecosystem productivity and services worldwide, spurring efforts to quantify its effects on the functioning of natural ecosystems. Previous research has focused on the positive role of biodiversity on resource acquisition (i.e., niche complementarity), but a lack of study on resource utilization efficiency, a link between resource and productivity, has rendered it difficult to quantify the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship. Here we demonstrate that biodiversity loss reduces plant productivity, other things held constant, through theory, empirical evidence, and simulations under gradually relaxed assumptions. We developed a theoretical model named niche-efficiency to integrate niche complementarity and a heretofore-ignored mechanism of diminishing marginal productivity in quantifying the effects of biodiversity loss on plant productivity. Based on niche-efficiency, we created a relative productivity metric and a productivity impact index (PII) to assist in biological conservation and resource management. Relative productivity provides a standardized measure of the influence of biodiversity on individual productivity, and PII is a functionally based taxonomic index to assess individual species' inherent value in maintaining current ecosystem productivity. Empirical evidence from the Alaska boreal forest suggests that every 1% reduction in overall plant diversity could render an average of 0.23% decline in individual tree productivity. Out of the 283 plant species of the region, we found that large woody plants generally have greater PII values than other species. This theoretical model would facilitate the integration of biological conservation in the international campaign against several pressing global issues involving energy use, climate change, and poverty.

A decade of boreal rich fen greenhouse gas fluxes in response to natural and experimental water table variability.

Rich fens are common boreal ecosystems with distinct hydrology, biogeochemistry and ecology that influence their carbon (C) balance. We present growing season soil chamber methane emission (FCH4 ), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) fluxes from a 9-years water table manipulation experiment in an Alaskan rich fen. The study included major flood and drought years, where wetting and drying treatments further modified the severity of droughts. Results support previous findings from peatlands that drought causes reduced magnitude of growing season FCH4 , GPP and NEE, thus reducing or reversing their C sink function. Experimentally exacerbated droughts further reduced the capacity for the fen to act as a C sink by causing shifts in vegetation and thus reducing magnitude of maximum growing season GPP in subsequent flood years by ~15% compared to control plots. Conversely, water table position had only a weak influence on ER, but dominant contribution to ER switched from autotrophic respiration in wet years to heterotrophic in dry years. Droughts did not cause inter-annual lag effects on ER in this rich fen, as has been observed in several nutrient-poor peatlands. While ER was dependent on soil temperatures at 2 cm depth, FCH4 was linked to soil temperatures at 25 cm. Inter-annual variability of deep soil temperatures was in turn dependent on wetness rather than air temperature, and higher FCH4 in flooded years was thus equally due to increased methane production at depth and decreased methane oxidation near the surface. Short-term fluctuations in wetness caused significant lag effects on FCH4 , but droughts caused no inter-annual lag effects on FCH4 . Our results show that frequency and severity of droughts and floods can have characteristic effects on the exchange of greenhouse gases, and emphasize the need to project future hydrological regimes in rich fens.

Historical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska.

Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socioecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive ecosystem changes throughout Alaska. Here we present research that improves our understanding of the main drivers of the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon dynamics using in situ observations, remote sensing data, and an array of modeling techniques. In the last 60 yr, Alaska has seen a large increase in mean annual air temperature (1.7°C), with the greatest warming occurring over winter and spring. Warming trends are projected to continue throughout the 21st century and will likely result in landscape-level changes to ecosystem structure and function. Wetlands, mainly bogs and fens, which are currently estimated to cover 12.5% of the landscape, strongly influence exchange of methane between Alaska's ecosystems and the atmosphere and are expected to be affected by thawing permafrost and shifts in hydrology. Simulations suggest the current proportion of near-surface (within 1 m) and deep (within 5 m) permafrost extent will be reduced by 9-74% and 33-55% by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Since 2000, an average of 678 595 ha/yr was burned, more than twice the annual average during 1950-1999. The largest increase in fire activity is projected for the boreal forest, which could result in a reduction in late-successional spruce forest (8-44%) and an increase in early-successional deciduous forest (25-113%) that would mediate future fire activity and weaken permafrost stability in the region. Climate warming will also affect vegetation communities across arctic regions, where the coverage of deciduous forest could increase (223-620%), shrub tundra may increase (4-21%), and graminoid tundra might decrease (10-24%). This study sheds light on the sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to change that has the potential to significantly affect local and regional carbon balance, but more research is needed to improve estimates of land-surface and subsurface properties, and to better account for ecosystem dynamics affected by a myriad of biophysical factors and interactions.

Are physicians prepared for whole genome sequencing? a qualitative analysis.

Although the integration of whole genome sequencing (WGS) into standard medical practice is rapidly becoming feasible, physicians may be unprepared to use it. Primary care physicians (PCPs) and cardiologists enrolled in a randomized clinical trial of WGS received genomics education before completing semi-structured interviews. Themes about preparedness were identified in transcripts through team-based consensus-coding. Data from 11 PCPs and 9 cardiologists suggested that physicians enrolled in the trial primarily to prepare themselves for widespread use of WGS in the future. PCPs were concerned about their general genomic knowledge, while cardiologists were concerned about how to interpret specific types of results and secondary findings. Both cohorts anticipated preparing extensively before disclosing results to patients by using educational resources with which they were already familiar, and both cohorts anticipated making referrals to genetics specialists as needed. A lack of laboratory guidance, time pressures, and a lack of standards contributed to feeling unprepared. Physicians had specialty-specific concerns about their preparedness to use WGS. Findings identify specific policy changes that could help physicians feel more prepared, and highlight how providers of all types will need to become familiar with interpreting WGS results.

The unseen iceberg: plant roots in arctic tundra.

Plant roots play a critical role in ecosystem function in arctic tundra, but root dynamics in these ecosystems are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we synthesized available literature on tundra roots, including their distribution, dynamics and contribution to ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, and highlighted key aspects of their representation in terrestrial biosphere models. Across all tundra ecosystems, belowground plant biomass exceeded aboveground biomass, with the exception of polar desert tundra. Roots were shallowly distributed in the thin layer of soil that thaws annually, and were often found in surface organic soil horizons. Root traits - including distribution, chemistry, anatomy and resource partitioning - play an important role in controlling plant species competition, and therefore ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, under changing climatic conditions, but have only been quantified for a small fraction of tundra plants. Further, the annual production and mortality of fine roots are key components of ecosystem processes in tundra, but extant data are sparse. Tundra root traits and dynamics should be the focus of future research efforts. Better representation of the dynamics and characteristics of tundra roots will improve the utility of models for the evaluation of the responses of tundra ecosystems to changing environmental conditions.

Polygonal tundra geomorphological change in response to warming alters future CO2 and CH4 flux on the Barrow Peninsula.

The landscape of the Barrow Peninsula in northern Alaska is thought to have formed over centuries to millennia, and is now dominated by ice-wedge polygonal tundra that spans drained thaw-lake basins and interstitial tundra. In nearby tundra regions, studies have identified a rapid increase in thermokarst formation (i.e., pits) over recent decades in response to climate warming, facilitating changes in polygonal tundra geomorphology. We assessed the future impact of 100 years of tundra geomorphic change on peak growing season carbon exchange in response to: (i) landscape succession associated with the thaw-lake cycle; and (ii) low, moderate, and extreme scenarios of thermokarst pit formation (10%, 30%, and 50%) reported for Alaskan arctic tundra sites. We developed a 30 × 30 m resolution tundra geomorphology map (overall accuracy:75%; Kappa:0.69) for our ~1800 km² study area composed of ten classes; drained slope, high center polygon, flat-center polygon, low center polygon, coalescent low center polygon, polygon trough, meadow, ponds, rivers, and lakes, to determine their spatial distribution across the Barrow Peninsula. Land-atmosphere CO2 and CH4 flux data were collected for the summers of 2006-2010 at eighty-two sites near Barrow, across the mapped classes. The developed geomorphic map was used for the regional assessment of carbon flux. Results indicate (i) at present during peak growing season on the Barrow Peninsula, CO2 uptake occurs at -902.3 10(6) gC-CO2 day(-1) (uncertainty using 95% CI is between -438.3 and -1366 10(6) gC-CO2 day(-1)) and CH4 flux at 28.9 10(6) gC-CH4 day(-1) (uncertainty using 95% CI is between 12.9 and 44.9 10(6) gC-CH4 day(-1)), (ii) one century of future landscape change associated with the thaw-lake cycle only slightly alter CO2 and CH4 exchange, while (iii) moderate increases in thermokarst pits would strengthen both CO2 uptake (-166.9 10(6) gC-CO2 day(-1)) and CH4 flux (2.8 10(6) gC-CH4 day(-1)) with geomorphic change from low to high center polygons, cumulatively resulting in an estimated negative feedback to warming during peak growing season.