Levels of frailty and frailty progression in older urban- and regional-living First Nations Australians.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the prevalence of frailty, association between frailty and mortality, and transitions between frailty states in urban- and regional-living First Nations Australians. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of longitudinal data from the Koori Growing Old Well Study. First Nations Australians aged 60 years or more from five non-remote communities were recruited in 2010-2012 and followed up six years later (2016-2018). Data collected at both visits were used to derive a 38-item Frailty Index (FI). The FI (range 0-1.0) was classified as robust (<0.1), pre-frail (0.1- < 0.2), mildly (0.2- < 0.3), moderately (0.3- < 0.4) or severely frail (≥0.4). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association between frailty and mortality, examined using logistic regression and transitions in frailty (the percentage of participants who changed frailty category) during follow-up. RESULTS: At baseline, 313 of 336 participants (93 %) had sufficient data to calculate a FI. Median FI score was 0.26 (interquartile range 0.21-0.39); 4.79 % were robust, 20.1 % pre-frail, 31.6 % mildly frail, 23.0 % moderately frail and 20.5 % severely frail. Higher baseline frailty was associated with mortality among severely frail participants (adjusted odds ratio 7.11, 95 % confidence interval 2.51-20.09) but not moderately or mildly frail participants. Of the 153 participants with a FI at both baseline and follow-up, their median FI score increased from 0.26 to 0.28. CONCLUSIONS: Levels of frailty in this First Nations cohort are substantially higher than in similar-aged non-Indigenous populations. Screening for frailty before the age of 70 years may be warranted in First Nations Australians. Further research is urgently needed to determine the factors that are driving such high levels of frailty and propose solutions to prevent or manage frailty in this population.

Quality of data in perinatal population health databases: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Administrative or population health datasets (PHDS) are increasingly being used for research related to maternal and infant health. However, the accuracy and completeness of the information in the PHDS is important to ensure validity of the results of this research. OBJECTIVE: To compile and review studies that validate the reporting of conditions and procedures related to pregnancy, childbirth, and newborns and provide a tool of reference for researchers. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted of Medline and EMBASE databases to find studies that validated routinely collected datasets containing diagnoses and procedures related to pregnancy, childbirth, and newborns. To be included datasets had to be validated against a gold standard, such as review of medical records, maternal interview or survey, specialized register, or laboratory data. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and/or κ statistic for each diagnosis or procedure code were calculated. RESULTS: Forty-three validation studies were included. Under-enumeration was common, with the level of ascertainment increasing as time from diagnosis/procedure to birth decreased. Most conditions and procedures had high specificities indicating few false positives, and procedures were more accurately reported than diagnoses. Hospital discharge data were generally more accurate than birth data, however identifying cases from more than 1 dataset further increased ascertainment. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive collection of validation studies summarizing the quality of perinatal population data will be an invaluable resource to all researchers working with PHDS.

Validation and application of a death proxy in adult cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Fact of death is not always available on data sets used for pharmacoepidemiological research. Proxies may be an appropriate substitute in the absence of death data. The purposes of this study were to validate a proxy for death in adult cancer patients and to assess its performance when estimating survival in two cohorts of cancer patients. METHODS: We evaluated 30-, 60-, 90- and 180-day proxies overall and by cancer type using data from 12 394 Australian veterans with lung, colorectal, breast or prostate cancer. The proxy indicated death if the difference between the last dispensing record and the end of the observational period exceeded the proxy cutoff. We then compared actual survival to 90-day proxy estimates in a subset of 4090 veterans with 'full entitlements' for pharmaceutical items and in 3704 Australian women receiving trastuzumab for HER2+ metastatic breast cancer. RESULTS: The 90-day proxy was optimal with an overall sensitivity of 99.3% (95%CI: 98.4-99.7) and a specificity of 97.6% (95%CI: 91.8-99.4). These measures remained high when evaluated by cancer type and spread of disease. The application of the proxy using the most conservative date of death estimate (date of last dispensing) generally underestimated survival, with estimates up to 3 months shorter than survival based on fact of death. CONCLUSIONS: A 90-day death proxy is a robust substitute to identify death in a chronic population when fact of death is not available. The proxy is likely to be valid across a range of chronic diseases as it relies on the presence of 'regular' dispensing records for individual patients. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Investigation of relative risk estimates from studies of the same population with contrasting response rates and designs.

BACKGROUND: There is little empirical evidence regarding the generalisability of relative risk estimates from studies which have relatively low response rates or are of limited representativeness. The aim of this study was to investigate variation in exposure-outcome relationships in studies of the same population with different response rates and designs by comparing estimates from the 45 and Up Study, a population-based cohort study (self-administered postal questionnaire, response rate 18%), and the New South Wales Population Health Survey (PHS) (computer-assisted telephone interview, response rate ~60%). METHODS: Logistic regression analysis of questionnaire data from 45 and Up Study participants (n = 101,812) and 2006/2007 PHS participants (n = 14,796) was used to calculate prevalence estimates and odds ratios (ORs) for comparable variables, adjusting for age, sex and remoteness. ORs were compared using Wald tests modelling each study separately, with and without sampling weights. RESULTS: Prevalence of some outcomes (smoking, private health insurance, diabetes, hypertension, asthma) varied between the two studies. For highly comparable questionnaire items, exposure-outcome relationship patterns were almost identical between the studies and ORs for eight of the ten relationships examined did not differ significantly. For questionnaire items that were only moderately comparable, the nature of the observed relationships did not differ materially between the two studies, although many ORs differed significantly. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that for a broad range of risk factors, two studies of the same population with varying response rate, sampling frame and mode of questionnaire administration yielded consistent estimates of exposure-outcome relationships. However, ORs varied between the studies where they did not use identical questionnaire items.

Assessing the impact of vaccination programmes on burden of disease: Underlying complexities and statistical methods.

It is important to assess the impact a vaccination programme has on the burden of disease after it is implemented. For example, this may reveal herd immunity effects or vaccine-induced shifts in the incidence of disease or in circulating strains or serotypes of the pathogen. In this article we summarise the key features of infectious diseases that need to be considered when trying to detect any changes in the burden of diseases at a population level as a result of vaccination efforts. We outline the challenges of using routine surveillance databases to monitor infectious diseases, such as the identification of diseased cases and the availability of vaccination status for cases. We highlight the complexities in modelling the underlying patterns in infectious disease rates (e.g. presence of autocorrelation) and discuss the main statistical methods that can be used to control for periodicity (e.g. seasonality) and autocorrelation when assessing the impact of vaccination programmes on burden of disease (e.g. cosinor terms, generalised additive models, autoregressive processes and moving averages). For some analyses, there may be multiple methods that can be used, but it is important for authors to justify the method chosen and discuss any limitations. We present a case study review of the statistical methods used in the literature to assess the rotavirus vaccination programme impact in Australia. The methods used varied and included generalised linear models and descriptive statistics. Not all studies accounted for autocorrelation and seasonality, which can have a major influence on results. We recommend that future analyses consider the strength and weakness of alternative statistical methods and justify their choice.

CareTrack Kids-part 2. Assessing the appropriateness of the healthcare delivered to Australian children: study protocol for a retrospective medical record review.

INTRODUCTION: Australian and international clinical practice guidelines are available for common paediatric conditions. Yet there is evidence that there are substantial variations between the guidelines, recommendations (appropriate care) and the care delivered. This paper describes a study protocol to determine the appropriateness of the healthcare delivered to Australian children for 16 common paediatric conditions in acute and primary healthcare settings. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A random sample of 6000-8000 medical records representing a cross-section of the Australian paediatric population will be reviewed for appropriateness of care against a set of indicators within three Australian states (New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia) using multistage, stratified sampling. Medical records of children aged <16 years who presented with at least one of the study conditions during 2012 and 2013 will be reviewed. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Human Research Ethics Committee approvals have been received from the Sydney Children's Hospital Network, Children's Health Queensland Hospital and Health Service and Women's and Children's Hospital Network (South Australia). An application is under review for the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. The authors will submit the results of the study to relevant journals and offer oral presentations to researchers, clinicians and policymakers at national and international conferences.

CareTrack Kids-part 1. Assessing the appropriateness of healthcare delivered to Australian children: study protocol for clinical indicator development.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the widespread availability of clinical guidelines, considerable gaps remain between the care that is recommended (appropriate care) and the care provided. This protocol describes a research methodology to develop clinical indicators for appropriate care for common paediatric conditions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will identify conditions amenable to population-level appropriateness of care research and develop clinical indicators for each condition. Candidate conditions have been identified from published research; burden of disease, prevalence and frequency of presentation data; and quality of care priority lists. Clinical indicators will be developed through searches of national and international guidelines, and formatted with explicit criteria for inclusion, exclusion, time frame and setting. Experts will review the indicators using a wiki-based approach and modified Delphi process. A formative evaluation of the wiki process will be undertaken. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Human Research Ethics Committee approvals have been received from Sydney Children's Hospital Network, Children's Health Queensland Hospital and Health Service, and the Women's and Children's Health Network (South Australia). Applications are under review with Macquarie University and the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. We will submit the results of the study to relevant journals and offer national and international presentations.

The association between admission systolic blood pressure and mortality in significant traumatic brain injury: a multi-centre cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Low systolic blood pressure (SBP) is an important secondary insult following traumatic brain injury (TBI), but its exact relationship with outcome is not well characterised. Although a SBP of <90 mmHg represents the threshold for hypotension in consensus TBI treatment guidelines, recent studies suggest redefining hypotension at higher levels. This study therefore aimed to fully characterise the association between admission SBP and mortality to further inform resuscitation endpoints. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre cohort study using data from the largest European trauma registry. Consecutive adult patients with AIS head scores >2 admitted directly to specialist neuroscience centres between 2005 and July 2012 were studied. Multilevel logistic regression models were developed to examine the association between admission SBP and 30 day inpatient mortality. Models were adjusted for confounders including age, severity of injury, and to account for differential quality of hospital care. RESULTS: 5057 patients were included in complete case analyses. Admission SBP demonstrated a smooth u-shaped association with outcome in a bivariate analysis, with increasing mortality at both lower and higher values, and no evidence of any threshold effect. Adjusting for confounding slightly attenuated the association between mortality and SBP at levels <120 mmHg, and abolished the relationship for higher SBP values. Case-mix adjusted odds of death were 1.5 times greater at <120 mmHg, doubled at <100 mmHg, tripled at <90 mmHg, and six times greater at SBP<70 mmHg, p<0.01. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that TBI studies should model SBP as a continuous variable and may suggest that current TBI treatment guidelines, using a cut-off for hypotension at SBP<90 mmHg, should be reconsidered.

Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND: Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS: This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS: A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION: We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic study, level II.

Assessing patterns of home and community care service use and client profiles in Australia: a cluster analysis approach using linked data.

The planning and delivery of care systems require knowledge on the ways in which individuals access available services that are funded by a range of health and community services. The aims of this study were to identify distinct groups of Home and Community Care (HACC) clients in New South Wales, Australia, based on patterns of actual service use, and to understand the health and social needs and resources of client groups that access different mixes of services. Multiple data sets linked at the individual level - including the 45 and Up Study community survey, the HACC Minimum Data Set and the Admitted Patient Data Collection for hospitals - provide an innovative basis to investigate the complexity of access to service use. Data were collected between 2006 and 2008. A cluster analysis based on clients' type and volume of community service use was conducted on the 4890 HACC clients in the linked dataset and nine distinct clusters of clients were identified. Three of these clusters were considered 'complex', in terms of the range of community and hospital assistance received, while the others comprised mainly of one or two dominant service types. The analytical approach and findings developed here provide a client-centred approach to monitor and evaluate access to local service systems that are being reformed to better integrate the delivery of health and community services currently funded and managed separately by national and state governments.

Serum glucose levels for predicting death in patients admitted to hospital for community acquired pneumonia: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether acute dysglycaemia predicts death in people admitted to hospital with community acquired pneumonia. DESIGN: Multicentre prospective cohort study. SETTING: Hospitals and private practices in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. PARTICIPANTS: 6891 patients with community acquired pneumonia included in the German community acquired pneumonia competence network (CAPNETZ) study between 2003 and 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Univariable and multivariable hazard ratios adjusted for sex, age, current smoking status, severity of community acquired pneumonia using the CRB-65 score (confusion, respiratory rate >30/min, systolic blood pressure ≤ 90 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≤ 60 mm Hg, and age ≥ 65 years), and various comorbidities for death at 28, 90, and 180 days according to serum glucose levels on admission. RESULTS: An increased serum glucose level at admission to hospital in participants with community acquired pneumonia and no pre-existing diabetes was a predictor of death at 28 and 90 days. Compared with participants with normal serum glucose levels on admission, those with mild acute hyperglycaemia (serum glucose concentration 6-10.99 mmol/L) had a significantly increased risk of death at 90 days (1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 2.01; P<0.001), and this risk increased to 2.37 (1.62 to 3.46; P<0.001) when serum glucose concentrations were ≥ 14 mmol/L. In sensitivity analyses the predictive value of serum glucose levels on admission for death was confirmed at 28 days and 90 days. Patients with pre-existing diabetes had a significantly increased overall mortality compared with those without diabetes (crude hazard ratio 2.47, 95% confidence interval 2.05 to 2.98; P<0.001). This outcome was not significantly affected by serum glucose levels on admission (P = 0.18 for interaction). CONCLUSIONS: Serum glucose levels on admission to hospital can predict death in patients with community acquired pneumonia without pre-existing diabetes. Acute hyperglycaemia may therefore identify patients in need of intensified care to reduce the risk of death from community acquired pneumonia.

Impact of scoring algorithm on physical activity prevalence estimates in Australian adults.

Public health recommendations for physical activity are operationalised by defining thresholds for frequency (sessions/week), duration (min/week), or volume (MET-min/week). This study compared estimates of meeting physical activity recommendations when scoring algorithms varied in specifications for frequency and duration but were comparable in volume. Data were obtained from 13,105 Australian adult respondents to the 2006 Exercise, Recreation and Sport Survey (ERASS). Prevalence estimates were calculated using algorithms defined by (i) frequency only (≥5 sessions/week); (ii) duration only (≥150 min/week); (iii) duration only when minutes of vigorous activity were weighted by 2 (≥150 weighted-min/week); (iv) frequency and duration (≥5 sessions/week, ≥150 min/week); (v) volume only (≥600 MET-min/week); and (vi) volume and frequency (≥600 MET-min/week, ≥5 sessions/week). The proportion of adults who met recommendations operationalised without a frequency requirement was twice the proportions obtained for algorithms with frequency requirements. Volume or duration-based algorithms yielded higher estimates for men than women, and for the younger age groups (<35 years) than the older groups, with the opposite observation for frequency-based algorithms. Consistent for all algorithms, people classified at the highest educational attainment had the highest prevalence of meeting recommendations. Agreement in achieving 600 MET-min/week when activities were categorised using activity-specific MET values versus median MET values was 98.3%. Prevalence rates based on 600 MET-min/week were similar to 150 weighted-min/week. In conclusion, varying frequency and duration requirements of scoring algorithms can yield different population estimates and patterns by population subgroup of physical activity for a health benefit.

Strategies for increasing high-quality intervention research in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health: views of leading researchers.

OBJECTIVE: To identify policy strategies that are perceived by researchers active in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health as effective in increasing the amount of high-quality intervention research undertaken in this field. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional study using a web-based survey was emailed to researchers based in clinical, public health and other academic institutions. PARTICIPANTS: Researchers who had published more than once in Aboriginal health between 1 January 2005 and 1 August 2009, based on a MEDLINE search. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants selected and weighted 17 strategies that were, in their opinion, important for increasing the amount of high-quality intervention research being conducted in Aboriginal health. RESULTS: We invited 157 researchers to complete the survey, and received 74 completed surveys. The most highly weighted strategies were: for research funding bodies to give funding priority to intervention research proposals that target Aboriginal populations (median weighted score,15%); for peak bodies representing Aboriginal communities to clearly specify intervention research priorities in a national Aboriginal health research agenda (median weighted score, 10%); for research funding bodies to fund research to develop reliable measures of health for Aboriginal people (median weighted score, 9.5%); for health care organisations to participate more in intervention research targeting Aboriginal populations (median, 8.5%); and for research review panels to accept intervention research designs other than the randomised controlled trial (median weighted score, 8%). CONCLUSIONS: Researchers who are active in Aboriginal health research perceive that improvements in funding mechanisms, priority setting and research systems are required to increase the amount of high-quality intervention research being conducted in this field. A national intervention research agenda that encourages multidisciplinary research teams and community partnerships may offer a solution.