Use of a counterfactual approach to evaluate the effect of area closures on fishing location in a tropical tuna fishery.

Spatial closures are widely used in marine conservation and fisheries management and it is important to understand their contribution to achieving management objectives. Many previous evaluations of closed area effects have used before-after comparisons, which, without controlling for a full range of factors, cannot ascribe changes in fleet behaviour to area closures per se. In this study we used a counterfactual approach to disentangle the effect of two closed areas on fishing location from other competing effects on the behaviour of the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery. Our results revealed an inconsistent effect of the one of the closed areas between years, after taking into account the influence of environmental conditions on fleet behaviour. This suggests that the policy of closing the area per se was not the main driver for the fleet allocating its effort elsewhere. We also showed a marked difference in effect between the two closed areas resulting from their different locations in the fishery area. These findings highlight the need to account for other key fleet behavioural drivers when predicting or evaluating the contribution of area closures to achieving conservation and fishery management objectives.

Modelling the spatial behaviour of a tropical tuna purse seine fleet.

Industrial tuna fisheries operate in the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but concerns over sustainability and environmental impacts of these fisheries have resulted in increased scrutiny of how they are managed. An important but often overlooked factor in the success or failure of tuna fisheries management is the behaviour of fishers and fishing fleets. Uncertainty in how a fishing fleet will respond to management or other influences can be reduced by anticipating fleet behaviour, although to date there has been little research directed at understanding and anticipating the human dimension of tuna fisheries. The aim of this study was to address gaps in knowledge of the behaviour of tuna fleets, using the Indian Ocean tropical tuna purse seine fishery as a case study. We use statistical modelling to examine the factors that influence the spatial behaviour of the purse seine fleet at broad spatiotemporal scales. This analysis reveals very high consistency between years in the use of seasonal fishing grounds by the fleet, as well as a forcing influence of biophysical ocean conditions on the distribution of fishing effort. These findings suggest strong inertia in the spatial behaviour of the fleet, which has important implications for predicting the response of the fleet to natural events or management measures (e.g., spatial closures).