Communication strategies and media discourses in the age of COVID-19: an urgent need for action.

Identified in December 2019 in China, the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Pandemics share features that increase fear. While some fear can stimulate preventive health behaviors, extreme fear can lead to adverse psychological and behavioral response. The media play a major role shaping these responses. When dealing with a PHEIC, the authorities' communication strategies are embedded in a multilevel governance and a highly hierarchal system, which adds another layer of complexity. Carrying out more 'real-world research' is crucial to generate evidence relating to the psychosocial and behavioral aspects involved during the COVID-19 pandemic and how it is shaped by authorities and media discourses. Interdisciplinary research and international collaborations could contribute to improve our understanding and management of risk information. Emerging from a socio-ecological perspective, future research must integrate multilevel analytical elements, to ensure triangulation of evidence and co-constructing robust recommendations. A mixed-method approach should be privileged to address these issues. At the micro-level, a population-based survey could be conducted in various jurisdictions to assess and compare psychosocial issues according to sociocultural groups. Then, a quantitative/qualitative discourse analysis of the media could be performed. Finally, a network analysis could allow assessing how official information flows and circulates across levels of governance. The COVID-19 represents an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of information/communication strategy and misinformation on various cultural and socioeconomic groups, providing important lessons that could be applied to future health emergencies and disasters.

Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasitaemia among indigenous Batwa and non-indigenous communities of Kanungu district, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The indigenous Batwa of southwestern Uganda are among the most highly impoverished populations in Uganda, yet there is negligible research on the prevalence of malaria in this population. Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasitaemia prevalence was estimated in an indigenous Batwa and a non-indigenous neighbouring population, and an exploration of modifiable risk factors was carried out to identify potential entry points for intervention. Additionally, evidence of zooprophylaxis was assessed, hypothesizing that livestock ownership may play a role in malaria risk. METHODS: Two cross-sectional surveys of Batwa and non-Batwa communities were carried out in Kanungu District, Uganda in July 2013 and April 2014 based on a census of adult Batwa and a two-stage systematic random sample of adult non-Batwa in ten Local Councils where Batwa settlements are located. A community-based questionnaire and antigen rapid diagnostic test for P. falciparum were carried out in the cross-sectional health surveys. A multivariable logistic regression model was built to identify risk factors associated with positive malaria diagnostic test. A subset analysis of livestock owners tested for zooprophylaxis. RESULTS: Batwa experienced higher prevalence of malaria parasitaemia than non-Batwa (9.35 versus 4.45 %, respectively) with over twice the odds of infection (OR 2.21, 95 % CI 1.23-3.98). Extreme poverty (OR 1.96, 95 % CI 0.98-3.94) and having an iron sheet roof (OR 2.54, 95 % CI 0.96-6.72) increased the odds of infection in both Batwa and non-Batwa. Controlling for ethnicity, wealth, and bed net ownership, keeping animals inside the home at night decreased the odds of parasitaemia among livestock owners (OR 0.29, 95 % CI 0.09-0.94). CONCLUSION: A health disparity exists between indigenous Batwa and non-indigenous community members with Batwa having higher prevalence of malaria relative to non-Batwa. Poverty was associated with increased odds of malaria infection for both groups. Findings suggest that open eaves and gaps in housing materials associated with iron sheet roofing represent a modifiable risk factor for malaria, and may facilitate mosquito house entry; larger sample sizes will be required to confirm this finding. Evidence for possible zooprophylaxis was observed among livestock owners in this population for those who sheltered animals inside the home at night.

Acceptability of tick control interventions to prevent Lyme disease in Switzerland and Canada: a mixed-method study.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease control strategies may include tick control interventions in high risk areas. Public authorities may be interested to assess how these types of interventions are perceived by the public which may then impact their acceptability. The aims of this paper are to compare socio-cognitive factors associated with high acceptability of tick control interventions and to describe perceived issues that may explain their low acceptability in populations living in two different regions, one being an endemic region for LD since the last 30 years, the Neuchâtel canton, in Switzerland, and another where the disease is emerging, the Montérégie region, in Canada. METHODS: A mixed methods' design was chosen. Quantitative data were collected using web-surveys conducted in both regions (n = 814). Multivariable logistic regressions were used to compare socio-cognitive factors associated with high acceptability of selected interventions. Qualitative data were collected using focus group's discussions to describe perceived issues relative to these interventions. RESULTS: Levels of acceptability in the studied populations were the lowest for the use of acaricides and landscaping and were under 50 % in both regions for six out of eight interventions, but were higher overall in Montérégie. High perceived efficacy of the intervention was strongly associated with high acceptability of tick control interventions. A high perceived risk about LD was also associated with a high acceptability of intervention under some models. High level of knowledge about LD was negatively associated with high acceptability of the use of acaricides in Neuchâtel. Perceived issues explaining low acceptability included environmental impacts, high costs to the public system, danger of individual disempowerment and perceptions that tick control interventions were disproportionate options for the level of LD risk. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the perceived efficacy and LD risk perception may be key factors to target to increase the acceptability of tick control interventions. Community-level issues seem to be important considerations driving low acceptability of public health interventions. Results of this study highlight the importance for decision-makers to account for socio-cognitive factors and perceived issues that may affect the acceptability of public health interventions in order to maximize the efficacy of actions to prevent and control LD.

A systematic, realist review of zooprophylaxis for malaria control.

BACKGROUND: Integrated vector management (IVM) is recommended as a sustainable approach to malaria control. IVM consists of combining vector control methods based on scientific evidence to maximize efficacy and cost-effectiveness while minimizing negative impacts, such as insecticide resistance and environmental damage. Zooprophylaxis has been identified as a possible component of IVM as livestock may draw mosquitoes away from humans, decreasing human-vector contact and malaria transmission. It is possible, however, that livestock may actually draw mosquitoes to humans, increasing malaria transmission (zoopotentiation). The goal of this paper is to take a realist approach to a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature to understand the contexts under which zooprophylaxis or zoopotentiation occur. METHODS: Three electronic databases were searched using the keywords 'zooprophylaxis' and 'zoopotentiation', and forward and backward citation tracking employed, to identify relevant articles. Only empirical, peer-reviewed articles were included. Critical appraisal was applied to articles retained for full review. RESULTS: Twenty empirical studies met inclusion criteria after critical appraisal. A range of experimental and observational study designs were reported. Outcome measures included human malaria infection and mosquito feeding behaviour. Two key factors were consistently associated with zooprophylaxis and zoopotentiation: the characteristics of the local mosquito vector, and the location of livestock relative to human sleeping quarters. These associations were modified by the use of bed nets and socio-economic factors. DISCUSSION: This review suggests that malaria risk is reduced (zooprophylaxis) in areas where predominant mosquito species do not prefer human hosts, where livestock are kept at a distance from human sleeping quarters at night, and where mosquito nets or other protective measures are used. Zoopotentiation occurs where livestock are housed within or near human sleeping quarters at night and where mosquito species prefer human hosts. CONCLUSION: The evidence suggests that zooprophylaxis could be part of an effective strategy to reduce malaria transmission under specific ecological and geographical conditions. The current scientific evidence base is inconclusive on understanding the role of socio-economic factors, optimal distance between livestock and human sleeping quarters, and the effect of animal species and number on zooprophylaxis.

Factors associated with preventive behaviors regarding Lyme disease in Canada and Switzerland: a comparative study.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease (LD) is a vector-borne disease that is endemic in many temperate countries, including Switzerland, and is currently emerging in Canada. This study compares the importance of knowledge, exposure and risk perception for the adoption of individual preventive measures, within and between two different populations, one that has been living in a LD endemic region for several decades, the Neuchâtel canton in Switzerland, and another where the disease is currently emerging, the Montérégie region in the province of Québec, Canada. METHODS: A web-based survey was carried out in both study regions (814 respondents) in 2012. Comparative analysis of the levels of adoption of individual preventive measures was performed and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to test and compare how knowledge, exposure and risk perception were associated with the adoption of selected measures in both regions and globally. RESULTS: In Montérégie, the proportion of reported adoption of five of the most commonly recommended preventive measures varied from 6% for 'applying acaricides on one's property' to 49% for 'wearing protective clothing', and in Neuchâtel, proportions ranged from 6% (acaricides) to 77% for 'checking for ticks (tick check)'. Differences were found within gender, age groups and exposure status in both regions. The perceived efficacy of a given measure was the strongest factor associated with the adoption of three specific preventive behaviors for both regions: tick check, protective clothing and tick repellent. Risk perception and a high level of knowledge about LD were also significantly associated with some of these specific behaviors, but varied by region. CONCLUSIONS: These results strongly suggest that social and contextual factors such as the epidemiological status of a region are important considerations to take into account when designing effective prevention campaigns for Lyme disease. It furthermore underlines the importance for public health authorities to better understand and monitor these factors in targeted populations in order to be able to implement preventive programs that are well adapted to a population and the epidemiological contexts therein.

Design of an inorganic dual-paste apatite cement using cation exchange.

The use of hydraulic calcium phosphate cements (CPCs) as bone substitute is impaired by their relatively poor handling due to the need to mix a powder and a liquid during surgery. The aim of the present study was to assess the possibility to design CPCs as inorganic dual-paste cements, where both pastes would be stable for years, but would react as soon as they are mixed together. Results showed that aqueous pastes of α-tricalcium phosphate (α-TCP) powder could be stabilized for up to a year at room temperature by the use of 0.1 M Mg chloride solution. Adding a calcium chloride solution in a 1:4 volume ratio activated α-TCP pastes provided the Ca/Mg ratio was larger than one. Mechanistic investigations suggest that Ca ions can displace Mg cations adsorbed at the surface of α-TCP particles to initiate α-TCP transformation to calcium-deficient hydroxyapatite and concomitant paste hardening. The compressive strength (29 MPa) was similar to that of commercial formulations (5-80 MPa). Other divalent cations (Ba, Ni, Sr) had a similar effect although with a different degree of efficacy.

From Lyme disease emergence to endemicity: a cross sectional comparative study of risk perceptions in different populations.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease (LD) is a tick-borne emerging disease in Canada that has been endemic in many temperate countries for decades. Currently, one of the main approaches for LD prevention is the promotion of individual-level preventive behaviors against ticks. Health behaviors are influenced by individual and social factors, one important of which is risk perception. This study aims to describe and compare risk perception of LD, within and between general populations and experts living in two different regions: the Neuchâtel canton in Switzerland, where LD is endemic, and the Montérégie region in Québec (Canada), where LD is emerging. METHOD: A web-based survey was conducted in both study regions (814 respondents) in 2012, and a questionnaire was administered to 16 experts. Comparative analyses of knowledge, risk exposure and different components of LD risk perception were performed. Multivariate analyses were used to calculate a global risk perception score and to identify determinants of risk perception in both regions. RESULTS: In Montérégie, only 15% of the survey respondents had a good level of knowledge of LD compared to Neuchâtel where 51% of survey respondents had good levels of knowledge. In Montérégie, 24% of respondents perceived themselves as being at high or very high risk of contracting LD vs 54% in Neuchâtel; however, a higher percentage of respondents from this region believed that personal protection was simple to carry out (73% vs 58% in Montérégie). Based on the population surveys, almost all of the identified determinants of risk perception were different between both populations except for gender. A good level of knowledge, living in the risk zone and knowing someone who has had LD increased risk perception, while a high level of education and being 18-34 years of age decreased this perception. The majority of the studied components of risk perception were different between populations and their regional experts. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that risk perception of LD differs between populations and regional experts living in different epidemiological situations. Monitoring of knowledge and risk perception in local populations may help to better target LD communication efforts in accordance with population specific attributes thereby enhancing prevention efficacy.

Multi-criteria decision analysis as an innovative approach to managing zoonoses: results from a study on Lyme disease in Canada.

BACKGROUND: Zoonoses are a growing international threat interacting at the human-animal-environment interface and call for transdisciplinary and multi-sectoral approaches in order to achieve effective disease management. The recent emergence of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada is a good example of a complex health issue for which the public health sector must find protective interventions. Traditional preventive and control interventions can have important environmental, social and economic impacts and as a result, decision-making requires a systems approach capable of integrating these multiple aspects of interventions. This paper presents the results from a study of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach for the management of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada. MCDA methods allow a comparison of interventions or alternatives based on multiple criteria. METHODS: MCDA models were developed to assess various prevention and control decision criteria pertinent to a comprehensive management of Lyme disease: a first model was developed for surveillance interventions and a second was developed for control interventions. Multi-criteria analyses were conducted under two epidemiological scenarios: a disease emergence scenario and an epidemic scenario. RESULTS: In general, we observed a good level of agreement between stakeholders. For the surveillance model, the three preferred interventions were: active surveillance of vectors by flagging or dragging, active surveillance of vectors by trapping of small rodents and passive surveillance of vectors of human origin. For the control interventions model, basic preventive communications, human vaccination and small scale landscaping were the three preferred interventions. Scenarios were found to only have a small effect on the group ranking of interventions in the control model. CONCLUSIONS: MCDA was used to structure key decision criteria and capture the complexity of Lyme disease management. This facilitated the identification of gaps in the scientific literature and enabled a clear identification of complementary interventions that could be used to improve the relevance and acceptability of proposed prevention and control strategy. Overall, MCDA presents itself as an interesting systematic approach for public health planning and zoonoses management with a "One Health" perspective.

Assessing and monitoring agroenvironmental determinants of recreational freshwater quality using remote sensing.

Diverse fecal and nonfecal bacterial contamination and nutrient sources (e.g. agriculture, human activities and wildlife) represent a considerable non-point source load entering natural recreational waters which may adversely affect water quality. Monitoring of natural recreational water microbial quality is most often based mainly on testing a set of microbiological indicators. The cost and labour involved in testing numerous water samples may be significant when a large number of sites must be monitored repetitively over time. In addition to water testing, ongoing monitoring of key environmental factors known to influence microbial contamination may be carried out as an additional component. Monitoring of environmental factors can now be performed using remote sensing technology which represents an increasingly recognized source of rigorous and recurrent data, especially when monitoring over a large or difficult to access territory is needed. To determine whether this technology could be useful in the context of recreational water monitoring, we evaluated a set of agroenvironmental determinants associated with fecal contamination of recreational waters through a multivariable logistic regression model built with data extracted from satellite imagery. We found that variables describing the proportions of land with agricultural and impervious surfaces, as derived from remote sensing observations, were statistically associated (odds ratio, OR = 11 and 5.2, respectively) with a higher level of fecal coliforms in lake waters in the southwestern region of Quebec, Canada. From a technical perspective, remote sensing may provide important added-value in the monitoring of microbial risk from recreational waters and further applications of this technology should be investigated to support public health risk assessments and environmental monitoring programs relating to water quality.

Multilevel analysis of childhood nonviral gastroenteritis associated with environmental risk factors in Quebec, 1999-2006.

Childhood nonviral gastroenteritis is a priority for various public health authorities. Given that waterborne transmission is sometimes incriminated during investigation of gastroenteritis outbreaks, the authors hypothesized that watershed characteristics may influence the occurrence of this disease and could contribute additional insights for better prevention and control. The study described here aimed to investigate watershed characteristics in relation to nonviral gastroenteritis and specifically three bacterial and parasitic forms of childhood gastroenteritis to assess their relative importance in the province of Quebec, Canada. Information on children aged 0-4 years with bacterial or parasitic enteric infections reported through ongoing surveillance between 1999 and 2006 in the province of Quebec was collected. Factors measured at the municipal and watershed levels were analyzed using multilevel models with a Poisson distribution and log link function. Childhood nonviral gastroenteritis, giardiasis, and campylobacteriosis were positively associated with small ruminants and cattle density. Childhood salmonellosis was positively associated with cattle density. Also, childhood campylobacteriosis incidence was positively associated with larger watershed agricultural surface. In addition to local agroenvironmental factors, this analysis revealed an important watershed effect.

Environmental and demographic risk factors for campylobacteriosis: do various geographical scales tell the same story?

BACKGROUND: Campylobacter is a common cause of bacterial gastro-enteritis characterized by multiple environmental sources and transmission pathways. Ecological studies can be used to reveal important regional characteristics linked to campylobacteriosis risk, but their results can be influenced by the choice of geographical units of analysis. This study was undertaken to compare the associations between the incidence of campylobacteriosis in Quebec, Canada and various environmental characteristics using seven different sets of geographical units. METHODS: For each set of geographical unit, a conditional autoregressive model was used to model the incidence of reported cases of campylobacteriosis according to environmental (poultry density, ruminant density, slaughterhouse presence, temperature, and precipitation) and demographic (population density, level of education) characteristics. Models were compared in terms of number of significant predictors, differences in direction and magnitude of predictors, and fit of the models. RESULTS: In general, the number of significant predictors was reduced as the aggregation level increased. More aggregated scales tend to show larger but less precise estimates for all variables, with the exception of slaughterhouse presence. Regional characteristics associated with an increased regional risk of campylobacteriosis, for at least some geographical units, were high ruminant density, high poultry density, high population density, and presence of a large poultry slaughterhouse, whereas a reduction in risk was associated with a lower percentage of people with diplomas, a lower level of precipitation, and warmer temperature. Two clusters of elevated residual risk were observed, with different location and size depending on the geographical unit used. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our results suggest that the use of municipality or census consolidated subdivision were the most optimal scales for studying environmental determinants of campylobacteriosis at a regional level. This study highlights the need for careful selection and analysis of geographical units when using ecological study designs.

Antimicrobial-resistant Escherichia coli in public beach waters in Quebec.

INTRODUCTION: Human exposure to antimicrobial-resistant bacteria may result in the transfer of resistance to commensal or pathogenic microbes present in the gastrointestinal tract, which may lead to severe health consequences and difficulties in treatment of future bacterial infections. It was hypothesized that the recreational waters from beaches represent a source of antimicrobial-resistant Escherichia coli for people engaging in water activities. OBJECTIVE: To describe the occurrence of antimicrobial-resistant E coli in the recreational waters of beaches in southern Quebec. METHODS: Sampling occurred over two summers; in 2004, 674 water samples were taken from 201 beaches, and in 2005, 628 water samples were taken from 177 beaches. The minimum inhibitory concentrations of the antimicrobial-resistant E coli isolates against a panel of 16 antimicrobials were determined using microbroth dilution. RESULTS: For 2004 and 2005, respectively, 28% and 38% of beaches sampled had at least one water sample contaminated by E coli resistant to one or more antimicrobials, and more than 10% of the resistant isolates were resistant to at least one antimicrobial of clinical importance for human medicine. The three antimicrobials with the highest frequency of resistance were tetracycline, ampicillin and sulfamethoxazole. DISCUSSION: The recreational waters of these beaches represent a potential source of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria for people engaging in water activities. Investigations relating the significance of these findings to public health should be pursued.

INTRODUCTION: L'exposition humaine à des bactéries résistant aux antimicrobiens peut provoquer le transfert de la résistance à des microbes commensaux ou pathogènes présents dans le tube digestif, ce qui peut avoir de graves conséquences sur la santé et compliquer le traitement de futures infections bactériennes. On a soulevé l'hypothèse que les eaux de baignade des plages représentent une source d'infection à l'Escherichia coli résistant aux antimicrobiens pour les personnes qui s'adonnent à des activités aquatiques. La présente étude visait principalement à décrire l'occurrence d'E coli résistant aux antimicrobiens dans les eaux de baignade du sud du Québec. MÉTHODOLOGIE: Les chercheurs ont procédé à l'échantillonnage sur deux étés. En 2004, ils ont prélevé 674 échantillons d'eau sur 201 plages, et en 2005, 628 échantillons d'eau sur 177 plages. Ils ont établi les concentrations inhibitrices minimales des isolats d'E coli résistant aux antimicrobiens par rapport à un groupe de 16 antimicrobiens au moyen d'une dilution en bouillon. RÉSULTATS: En 2004 et en 2005, respectivement, 28 % et 38 % des plages échantillonnées comptaient au moins un échantillon d'eau contaminée par l'E coli résistant à au moins un antimicrobien, et plus de 10 % de ces isolats résistaient à un moins un antimicrobien d'importance clinique en médecine humaine. La tétracycline, l'ampicilline et le sulfaméthoxazole étaient les trois antimicrobiens les plus touchés par la résistance. EXPOSÉ: Les eaux de baignade de ces plages représentent une source potentielle de bactéries résistant aux antimicrobiens pour les personnes qui s'adonnent à des activités aquatiques. Il faudrait poursuivre les recherches sur la signification de ces observations en matière de santé publique.

Clinical characteristics of external bacterial ocular and periocular infections and their antimicrobial treatment patterns among a Ghanaian ophthalmic population.

Empirical antimicrobial therapy is linked to a surge in antimicrobial resistant infections. However, an insight on the bacteria etiology of ocular infections is essential in the appropriation of choice of antimicrobial among clinicians, yet there remains a dearth of data from Ghana. We investigated the bacteria etiology of external ocular and periocular infections and antimicrobial treatment patterns among a Ghanaian ophthalmic population. A multicenter study design with purposive sampling approach was employed. Patients demographics and clinical data were collated using a pretested structure questionnaire. Cornea specimens and conjunctival swabs were obtained for bacterial isolation following standard protocols. About 95% (98/103) of ocular samples were positive for bacteria culture. The proportion of Gram-negative bacteria was 58.2%, and the predominant bacteria species were Pseudomonas aeruginosa 38.8% and Staphylococcus aureus 27.6%. Conjunctivitis 40.0% and keratitis 75.0% were mostly caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The routinely administered antimicrobial therapy were polymyxin B 41.2%, neomycin 35.1% and ciprofloxacin 31.6%. Participants demographic and clinical characteristics were unrelated with positive bacteria culture (p > 0.05). Our results showed a markedly high burden of ocular bacterial infections and variations in etiology. Bacterial infection-control and antimicrobial agent management programs should be urgently institutionalized to prevent the emergence of resistant infections.

Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases.

The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular.

Do patients with recurrent episodes of campylobacteriosis differ from those with a single disease event?

BACKGROUND: Although Campylobacter is the leading cause of reported bacterial gastro-enteritis in industrialized countries, little is known on its recurrence. The objective of this study is to describe the risk and the patient characteristics of recurrent episodes of human campylobacteriosis reported in Quebec. METHODS: Laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacteriosis reported in the province of Quebec, Canada, through ongoing surveillance between 1996 and 2006 were analyzed. The risk of having a recurrent episode of campylobacteriosis was described using life table estimates. Logistic regression was used to assess if gender, age and patient residential location were associated with an increased risk of recurrence. RESULTS: Compared to the baseline risk, the risk for a recurrent disease event was higher for a period of four years and followed a decreasing trend. This increased risk of a recurrent event was similar across gender, but higher for people from rural areas and lower for children under four years of age. CONCLUSIONS: These results may suggest the absence of durable immunity or clinical resilience following a first episode of campylobacteriosis and periodical re-exposure, at least among cases reported through the surveillance system.

Geographical variation of Crohn's disease residual incidence in the Province of Quebec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) is clinically expressed as a chronic affection of the gastrointestinal tract currently known to have a multifactorial etiology involving a complex pathophysiological host response modulated by genetic susceptibilities, demographic determinants and environmental factors. With more than 20 cases per 100,000 person-years, the province of Quebec, Canada is among regions of the world with highest reported occurrence of CD in relation to other places where comparable estimates are available. This ecological study was designed to provide a medium-scale spatial exploration of CD incidence after accounting for the influence of known population and regional determinants. Health records of consulting patients in southern Quebec were compiled from 1995 to 2000 and used to estimate age and sex standardized rates per health area (n = 156). Various statistical models taking into account the regional effect of Jewish ethnicity, aboriginal ancestry, material deprivation, prescription for oral contraceptives, reportable enteric infection incidence, smoking as well as latitude and longitude locations were fitted. RESULTS: The final regression model presented a coefficient of determination of 22.8% and there was evidence of an eastern trend in the residual incidence (p = 0.018). Overall, the smoothed residual incidence presented a heterogeneous spatial pattern with evidence of patches (multiple health areas) of high, low and contrasting values. Health areas with most extreme incidence residuals where also distributed over the whole province including one area in the metropolitan area of Montreal and others in surrounding areas. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that known populational and regional factors derived through census information only explain a limited fraction of the geographical variation of CD incidence and lead to speculate that the effects of these factors may be incompletely captured (imperfect construction of proxy variables) or that other important factors remain unmeasured. In this view, markers of genetic profiles of homogeneous sub-populations, and other factors linked to agroenvironmental microbial exposure should be further investigated. Once accounting for known factors, it would also be worth comparing adjacent geographical areas demonstrating abrupt changes in residual incidence rates to further explore effect linked to regional factors from those resulting from various reporting systems.

Broiler Campylobacter contamination and human campylobacteriosis in Iceland.

To examine whether there is a relationship between the degree of Campylobacter contamination observed in product lots of retail Icelandic broiler chicken carcasses and the incidence of human disease, 1,617 isolates from 327 individual product lots were genetically matched (using the flaA short variable region [SVR[) to 289 isolates from cases of human campylobacteriosis whose onset was within approximately 2 weeks from the date of processing. When there was genetic identity between broiler isolates and human isolates within the appropriate time frame, a retail product lot was classified as implicated in human disease. According to the results of this analysis, there were multiple clusters of human disease linked to the same process lot or lots. Implicated and nonimplicated retail product lots were compared for four lot descriptors: lot size, prevalence, mean contamination, and maximum contamination (as characterized by direct rinse plating). For retail product distributed fresh, Mann-Whitney U tests showed that implicated product lots had significantly (P = 0.0055) higher mean contamination than nonimplicated lots. The corresponding median values were 3.56 log CFU/carcass for implicated lots and 2.72 log CFU/carcass for nonimplicated lots. For frozen retail product, implicated lots were significantly (P = 0.0281) larger than nonimplicated lots. When the time frame was removed, retail product lots containing Campylobacter flaA SVR genotypes also seen in human disease had significantly higher mean and maximum contamination numbers than lots containing no genotypes seen in human disease for both fresh and frozen product. Our results suggest that cases of broiler-borne campylobacteriosis may occur in clusters and that the differences in mean contamination levels may provide a basis for regulatory action that is more specific than a presence-absence standard.

Risk maps for range expansion of the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis, in Canada now and with climate change.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease is the commonest vector-borne zoonosis in the temperate world, and an emerging infectious disease in Canada due to expansion of the geographic range of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis. Studies suggest that climate change will accelerate Lyme disease emergence by enhancing climatic suitability for I. scapularis. Risk maps will help to meet the public health challenge of Lyme disease by allowing targeting of surveillance and intervention activities. RESULTS: A risk map for possible Lyme endemicity was created using a simple risk algorithm for occurrence of I. scapularis populations. The algorithm was calculated for each census sub-division in central and eastern Canada from interpolated output of a temperature-driven simulation model of I. scapularis populations and an index of tick immigration. The latter was calculated from estimates of tick dispersion distances by migratory birds and recent knowledge of the current geographic range of endemic I. scapularis populations. The index of tick immigration closely predicted passive surveillance data on I. scapularis occurrence, and the risk algorithm was a significant predictor of the occurrence of I. scapularis populations in a prospective field study. Risk maps for I. scapularis occurrence in Canada under future projected climate (in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s) were produced using temperature output from the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model 2 with greenhouse gas emission scenario enforcing 'A2' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CONCLUSION: We have prepared risk maps for the occurrence of I. scapularis in eastern and central Canada under current and future projected climate. Validation of the risk maps provides some confidence that they provide a useful first step in predicting the occurrence of I. scapularis populations, and directing public health objectives in minimizing risk from Lyme disease. Further field studies are needed, however, to continue validation and refinement of the risk maps.

Evidence for an effect of landscape connectivity on Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto dispersion in a zone of range expansion.

In North America, different strains of the Lyme disease-causing bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto cluster into phylogenetic groups that are associated with different levels of pathogenicity and, for some, specific rodent reservoir hosts. Here we explore whether landscape connectivity, by impacting host dispersal, influences B. burgdorferi s.s. spread patterns. This question is central to modelling spatial patterns of the spread of Lyme disease risk in the zone of northward range-expansion of B. burgdorferi s.s. in southeastern Canada where the study was conducted. We used multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) to characterise B. burgdorferi s.s. in positive ticks collected at 13 sites in southern Quebec, Canada during the early stages of B. burgdorferi s.s. invasion. We used mixed effects logistic regression to investigate whether landscape connectivity (probability of connectivity; PC) affected the probability that samples collected at different sites were of the same strain (MLST sequence type: ST). PC was calculated from a habitat map based on high spatial resolution (15 m) Landsat 8 imagery to identify woodland habitat that are preferred by rodent hosts of B. burgdorferi s.s. There was a significant positive association between the likelihood that two samples were of the same ST and PC, when PC values were grouped into three categories of low, medium and high. When analysing data for individual STs, samples at different sites were significantly more likely to be the same when PC was higher for the rodent-associated ST1. These findings support the hypothesis that dispersion trajectories of B. burgdorferi s.s. in general, and some rodent-associated strains in particular, are at least partly determined by landscape connectivity. This may suggest that dispersion of B. burgdorferi s.s. is more common by terrestrial mammal hosts (which would likely disperse according to landscape connectivity) than by birds, the dispersal of which is likely less constrained by landscape. This study suggests that accounting for landscape connectivity may improve model-based predictions of spatial spread patterns of B. burgdorferi s.s. The findings are consistent with possible past dispersal patterns of B. burgdorferi s.s. as determined by phylogeographic studies.

A field-based indicator for determining the likelihood of Ixodes scapularis establishment at sites in Ontario, Canada.

The emergence of the vector Ixodes scapularis in Ontario, Canada poses a significant public health risk. Both passive and active surveillance approaches have been employed by public health professionals (i.e., government employees) to monitor for the range expansion of this tick. Field surveillance using drag sampling for questing ticks is a recognized and effective method to identify reproducing tick populations. The degree of effort (i.e., number of visits per site) can enhance the sensitivity and specificity of surveillance, but increased effort conflicts with the cost to public health for field surveillance. Here we developed an indicator to determine the likelihood of I. scapularis establishment based on field sampling results. Field data from two established populations of I. scapularis in Ontario were incorporated with previous analyses of surveillance data to create the indicator, which is in the form of a scoring system. The life stage(s) collected, overall abundance and past surveillance findings from a site are all considered and a level is assigned for the likelihood of I. scapularis establishment based on current field sampling results. The likelihood levels are non-zero (i.e., no I. scapularis detected, but risk still present due to adventitious ticks), low, medium or high, and recommendations for future surveillance and public health measures are provided. The indicator was validated against field sampling results from five other established sites in the province and correctly categorized all five areas as high likelihood of establishment. The indicator was also applied to field sampling results from 36 sites of unknown status that were visited twice during the period of 2014-2016. There was substantial agreement of levels between measurements, as calculated using a weighted kappa. The indicator can assist public health professionals with the interpretation of field sampling results and direct their efforts for ongoing surveillance and public health interventions for I. scapularis-borne diseases, including Lyme disease.