Global trends toward urban street-network sprawl.

We present a global time series of street-network sprawl-that is, sprawl as measured through the local connectivity of the street network. Using high-resolution data from OpenStreetMap and a satellite-derived time series of urbanization, we compute and validate changes over time in multidimensional street connectivity measures based on graph-theoretic and geographic concepts. We report on global, national, and city-level trends since 1975 in the street-network disconnectedness index (SNDi), based on every mapped node and edge in the world. Streets in new developments in 90% of the 134 most populous countries have become less connected since 1975, while just 29% show an improving trend since 2000. The same period saw a near doubling in the relative frequency of a street-network type characterized by high circuity, typical of gated communities. We identify persistence in street-network sprawl, indicative of path-dependent processes. Specifically, cities and countries with low connectivity in recent years also had relatively low preexisting connectivity in our earliest time period. We discuss implications for policy intervention in road building in new and expanding cities as a top priority for sustainable urban development.

A century of sprawl in the United States.

The urban street network is one of the most permanent features of cities. Once laid down, the pattern of streets determines urban form and the level of sprawl for decades to come. We present a high-resolution time series of urban sprawl, as measured through street network connectivity, in the United States from 1920 to 2012. Sprawl started well before private car ownership was dominant and grew steadily until the mid-1990s. Over the last two decades, however, new streets have become significantly more connected and grid-like; the peak in street-network sprawl in the United States occurred in ∼ 1994. By one measure of connectivity, the mean nodal degree of intersections, sprawl fell by ∼ 9% between 1994 and 2012. We analyze spatial variation in these changes and demonstrate the persistence of sprawl. Places that were built with a low-connectivity street network tend to stay that way, even as the network expands. We also find suggestive evidence that local government policies impact sprawl, as the largest increases in connectivity have occurred in places with policies to promote gridded streets and similar New Urbanist design principles. We provide for public use a county-level version of our street-network sprawl dataset comprising a time series of nearly 100 y.

Peak oil demand: the role of fuel efficiency and alternative fuels in a global oil production decline.

Some argue that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity. We examine the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Our model uses historical relationships to project future demand for (a) transport services, (b) all liquid fuels, and (c) substitution with alternative energy carriers, including electricity. Results show great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil. Demand for liquids inputs to refineries declines significantly after 2070. By 2100 transport energy demand rises >1000% in Asia, while flattening in North America (+23%) and Europe (-20%). Conventional oil demand declines after 2035, and cumulative oil production is 1900 Gbbl from 2010 to 2100 (close to the U.S. Geological Survey median estimate of remaining oil, which only includes projected discoveries through 2025). These results suggest that effort is better spent to determine and influence the trajectory of oil substitution and efficiency improvement rather than to focus on oil resource scarcity. The results also imply that policy makers should not rely on liquid fossil fuel scarcity to constrain damage from climate change. However, there is an unpredictable range of emissions impacts depending on which mix of substitutes for conventional oil gains dominance-oil sands, electricity, coal-to-liquids, or others.

Urban form and its impacts on air pollution and access to green space: A global analysis of 462 cities.

A better understanding of urban form metrics and their environmental outcomes can help urban policymakers determine which policies will lead to more sustainable growth. In this study, we have examined five urban form metrics-weighted density, density gradient slope, density gradient intercept, compactness, and street connectivity-for 462 metropolitan areas worldwide. We compared urban form metrics and examined their correlations with each other across geographic regions and socioeconomic characteristics such as income. Using the K-Means clustering algorithm, we then developed a typology of urban forms worldwide. Furthermore, we assessed the associations between urban form metrics and two important environmental outcomes: green space access and air pollution. Our results demonstrate that while higher density is often emphasized as the way to reduce driving and thus PM2.5 emissions, it comes with a downside-less green space access and more exposure to PM2.5. Moreover, street connectivity has a stronger association with reduced PM2.5 emissions from the transportation sector. We further show that it is not appropriate to generalize urban form characteristics and impacts from one income group or geographical region to another, since the correlations between urban form metrics are context specific. Our conclusions indicate that density is not the only proxy for different aspects of urban form and multiple indicators such as street connectivity are needed. Our findings provide the foundation for future work to understand urban processes and identify effective policy responses.

Addressing the "minimum parking" problem for on-demand mobility.

Parking infrastructure is pervasive and occupies large swaths of land in cities. However, on-demand (OD) mobility has started reducing parking needs in urban areas around the world. This trend is expected to grow significantly with the advent of autonomous driving, which might render on-demand mobility predominant. Recent studies have started looking at expected parking reductions with on-demand mobility, but a systematic framework is still lacking. In this paper, we apply a data-driven methodology based on shareability networks to address what we call the "minimum parking" problem: what is the minimum parking infrastructure needed in a city for given on-demand mobility needs? While solving the problem, we also identify a critical tradeoff between two public policy goals: less parking means increased vehicle travel from deadheading between trips. By applying our methodology to the city of Singapore we discover that parking infrastructure reduction of up to 86% is possible, but at the expense of a 24% increase in traffic measured as vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT). However, a more modest 57% reduction in parking is achievable with only a 1.3% increase in VKT. We find that the tradeoff between parking and traffic obeys an inverse exponential law which is invariant with the size of the vehicle fleet. Finally, we analyze parking requirements due to passenger pick-ups and show that increasing convenience produces a substantial increase in parking for passenger pickup/dropoff. The above findings can inform policy-makers, mobility operators, and society at large on the tradeoffs required in the transition towards pervasive on-demand mobility.

A global assessment of street-network sprawl.

Disconnected urban street networks, which we call "street-network sprawl," are strongly associated with increased vehicle travel, energy use and CO2 emissions, as shown by previous research in Europe and North America. In this paper, we provide the first systematic and globally commensurable measures of street-network sprawl based on graph-theoretic and geographic concepts. Using data on all 46 million km of mapped streets worldwide, we compute these measures for the entire Earth at the highest possible resolution. We generate a summary scalar measure for street-network sprawl, the Street-Network Disconnectedness index (SNDi), as well as a data-driven multidimensional classification that identifies eight empirical street-network types that span the spectrum of connectivity, from gridiron to dendritic (tree-like) and circuitous networks. Our qualitative validation shows that both the scalar and multidimensional measures are meaningfully comparable within and across countries, and successfully capture varied dimensions of walkability and urban development. We further show that in select high-income countries, our measures explain cross-sectional variation in household transportation decisions, and a one standard-deviation increase in SNDi is associated with an extra 0.25 standard deviations in cars owned per household. We aggregate our measures to the scale of countries, cities, and smaller geographies and describe patterns in street-network sprawl around the world. Latin America, Japan, South Korea, much of Europe, and North Africa stand out for their low levels of street-network sprawl, while the highest levels are found in south-east Asia, the United States, and the British Isles. Our calculations provide the foundation for future work to understand urban processes, predict future pathways of transportation energy consumption and emissions, and identify effective policy responses.

Correction: The world's user-generated road map is more than 80% complete.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0180698.].

The world's user-generated road map is more than 80% complete.

OpenStreetMap, a crowdsourced geographic database, provides the only global-level, openly licensed source of geospatial road data, and the only national-level source in many countries. However, researchers, policy makers, and citizens who want to make use of OpenStreetMap (OSM) have little information about whether it can be relied upon in a particular geographic setting. In this paper, we use two complementary, independent methods to assess the completeness of OSM road data in each country in the world. First, we undertake a visual assessment of OSM data against satellite imagery, which provides the input for estimates based on a multilevel regression and poststratification model. Second, we fit sigmoid curves to the cumulative length of contributions, and use them to estimate the saturation level for each country. Both techniques may have more general use for assessing the development and saturation of crowd-sourced data. Our results show that in many places, researchers and policymakers can rely on the completeness of OSM, or will soon be able to do so. We find (i) that globally, OSM is ∼83% complete, and more than 40% of countries-including several in the developing world-have a fully mapped street network; (ii) that well-governed countries with good Internet access tend to be more complete, and that completeness has a U-shaped relationship with population density-both sparsely populated areas and dense cities are the best mapped; and (iii) that existing global datasets used by the World Bank undercount roads by more than 30%.