Allocation of hospital beds on the emergence of new infectious disease: A mathematical model.

This paper is concerned to a mathematical model for the management of hospital beds when a new infection emerges in the population with the existing infections. The study of this joint dynamics presents formidable mathematical challenges due to a limited number of hospital beds. We have derived the invasion reproduction number, which investigates the potential of a newly emerged infectious disease to persist when some infectious diseases are already invaded the host population. We have shown that the proposed system exhibits transcritical, saddle-node, Hopf, and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations under certain conditions. We have also shown that the total number of infected individuals may increase if the fraction of the total number of hospital beds is not properly allotted to the existing and a newly emerged infectious disease. The analytically obtained results are verified with the help of numerical simulations.

Modeling the role of renewable energy to mitigate the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide along with sustainable development.

In the past few decades, the use of fossil fuels has increased dramatically due to industrialization in developing nations. The elevation of carbon dioxide (CO2) has become a serious concern for the entire world. Therefore, most countries want to reduce the use of fossil fuels by transitioning to renewable energy sources. In this research work, we formulate a nonlinear mathematical model to study the interplay between atmospheric CO2, human population, and energy production through traditional energy sources (coal, oil, and gas) and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and hydro). For the model formulation, we consider that the atmospheric level of CO2 increases due to human activities and energy production through traditional energy sources. Additionally, we consider that the dependency of the human population shifts from traditional to renewable sources of energy as the atmospheric level of CO2 increases. Through the model analysis, we have obtained a condition that implies a change in the equilibrium level of CO2 by increasing the deployment rate of renewable energy sources. This condition demonstrates that the atmospheric level of CO2 can be reversed from its current level through sufficient deployment of renewable energy sources. Moreover, for a certain critical value of the growth rate parameter of renewable energy, three interior equilibria may exist. This situation indicates the presence of hysteresis, which implies that the system may undergo discontinuous jumps between different stable steady states. Furthermore, we discuss an optimal control problem to minimize atmospheric CO2, simultaneously minimizing the cost of the considered strategy.

Potential use of Tinospora cordifolia as a herbal supplement in dairy animals: a review.

Supplementation is an integral part of modern dairy-feeding practices which mainly emphasise on higher production. Different supplements have been utilized by the farmers according to the need and action of supplements. Tinospora cordifolia (TC) is one such herbal supplement which can be utilized to feed dairy animals either alone or in combination with other supplements. TC is a herb found in tropical countries and having number of medicinal properties. Beneficial health effects of TC include immunostimulation, protection against inflammation and bacterial action, hepatoprotection, antioxidant and antineoplastic effects. Available studies on TC supplementation in dairy animals have shown a positive effect on health, body parameters and production performance. Supplementing TC is economically feasible, and it can be adopted by farmers as it helps in improving their net income. However, more research is needed in the field of dairy animals to explore the full potential of this herb. This review is written with the objective of highlighting the possibilities of using TC in dairy animal rations and promoting research in the concerned field to fill the gaps in knowledge. Thorough knowledge about TC and its effect in dairy animals can add a new concept to the supplementation process and developments of dairy rations.

Modeling the importance of temporary hospital beds on the dynamics of emerged infectious disease.

To explore the impact of available and temporarily arranged hospital beds on the prevention and control of an infectious disease, an epidemic model is proposed and investigated. The stability analysis of the associated equilibria is carried out, and a threshold quantity basic reproduction number ( R0) that governs the disease dynamics is derived and observed whether it depends both on available and temporarily arranged hospital beds. We have used the center manifold theory to derive the normal form and have shown that the proposed model undergoes different types of bifurcations including transcritical (backward and forward), Bogdanov-Takens, and Hopf-bifurcation. Bautin bifurcation is obtained at which the first Lyapunov coefficient vanishes. We have taken advantage of Sotomayor's theorem to establish the saddle-node bifurcation. Numerical simulations are performed to support the theoretical findings.

Effect of bypass fatty acid and Tinospora cordifolia supplementation on production performance and milk fatty acid profiling in Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis).

Buffaloes contribute about 49% of total milk production and are considered as major milk-producing animals in India. During the early stage of lactation, mostly high producing animals suffer from negative energy balance (NEB) due to imbalance between the needs and availability of energy, and this NEB has a negative impact on production and health of buffaloes. Taking this into consideration, a study was conducted at National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal on 20 freshly calved healthy Murrah buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis). Buffaloes were grouped depending on their previous milk yield, body weight, and parity as T0 (control), T1 (fatty acids), T2 (Tinospora), and T3 (mix) groups having five animals each. Supplementation of 150 g of bypass fatty acids in T1 group, 150 g of Tinospora powder in T2 group, and combination of 150 of bypass fatty acid and 150 g of Tinospora powder in T3 group over and above the standard feeding schedule was done for a duration of 90 days whereas standard feeding schedule was followed in T0 group. A significant (P < 0.05) increase in average daily milk yield was observed in T1 (10.06 ± 0.56 kg/d/h), T2 (10.30 ± 0.53 kg/d/h), and T3 (10.11 ± 0.48 kg/d/h) in comparison to control group (8.05 ± 0.38 kg/d/h). Significantly (P < 0.05) higher milk fat percent and total solids were also recorded in treatment groups over the control group. Other milk constituents (SNF, protein, lactose, ash) and milk properties (pH, conductivity, freezing point, density) remained unaffected by the supplementations. The somatic cell count values were significantly (P < 0.05) decreased in T2 and T3 with the advancement in the lactation in comparison to T0 and T1. Supplementation also leads to significantly (P < 0.05) higher MUFA and PUFA contents in milk of treatment group buffaloes in comparison to control group. The study outcomes state that combination of bypass fatty acids and Tinospora cordifolia supplementation improves milk production and its composition in lactating Murrah buffaloes.

Modeling the Effect of Prey Refuge on a Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey System with the Allee Effect.

The extinction of species is a major threat to the biodiversity. The species exhibiting a strong Allee effect are vulnerable to extinction due to predation. The refuge used by species having a strong Allee effect may affect their predation and hence extinction risk. A mathematical study of such behavioral phenomenon may aid in management of many endangered species. However, a little attention has been paid in this direction. In this paper, we have studied the impact of a constant prey refuge on the dynamics of a ratio-dependent predator-prey system with strong Allee effect in prey growth. The stability analysis of the model has been carried out, and a comprehensive bifurcation analysis is presented. It is found that if prey refuge is less than the Allee threshold, the incorporation of prey refuge increases the threshold values of the predation rate and conversion efficiency at which unconditional extinction occurs. Moreover, if the prey refuge is greater than the Allee threshold, situation of unconditional extinction may not occur. It is found that at a critical value of prey refuge, which is greater than the Allee threshold but less than the carrying capacity of prey population, system undergoes cusp bifurcation and the rich spectrum of dynamics exhibited by the system disappears if the prey refuge is increased further.

Prevalence and trends of metabolic syndrome among adults in the asia-pacific region: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The Asia-Pacific region is home to nearly half of the world's population. The region has seen a recent rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity, type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The present systematic review summarizes the recent prevalence and trends of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) among adults in countries of the Asia-Pacific Region. METHODS: Data on MetS in Asia-Pacific countries were obtained using a stepwise process by searching the online Medline database using MeSH terms 'Metabolic Syndrome X' and 'Epidemiology/EP'. For the purpose of describing prevalence data for the individual countries, studies that were most recent, nationally representative or with the largest sample size were included. When evaluating secular trends in prevalence in a country we only considered studies that evaluated the temporal change in prevalence between similar populations, prospective studies based on the same population or National surveys conducted during different time periods. RESULTS: This literature search yielded a total of 757 articles, and five additional article were identified by screening of reference lists. From this total, 18 studies were eligible to be included in the final analysis. Of the 51 Asia-Pacific countries (WHO) we only located data for 15. There was wide between country variation in prevalence of MetS. A national survey from Philippines conducted in 2003 revealed the lowest reported prevalence of 11.9% according to NCEP ATP III criteria. In contrast, the highest recorded prevalence in the region (49.0%) came from a study conducted in urban Pakistan (Karachchi, 2004). Most studies reported a higher prevalence of MetS in females and urban residents. Data on secular trends were available for China, South Korea and Taiwan. An increase in the prevalence of MetS was observed in all three countries. CONCLUSION: Despite differences in methodology, diagnostic criteria and age of subjects studied, the Asia-Pacific region is facing a significant epidemic of MetS. In most countries nearly 1/5th of the adult population or more were affected by MetS with a secular increase in prevalence. Strategies aimed at primary prevention are required to ameliorate a further increase in the epidemic and for the reduction of the morbidity and mortality associated with MetS.

The role of algae in agriculture: a mathematical study.

Synthetic fertilizers and livestock manure are nowadays widely used in agriculture to improve crop yield but nitrogen and phosphorous runoff resulting from their use compromises water quality and contributes to eutrophication phenomena in waterbeds within the countryside and ultimately in the ocean. Alternatively, algae could play an important role in agriculture where they can be used as biofertilizers and soil stabilizers. To examine the possible reuse of the detritus generated by dead algae as fertilizer for crops, we develop three mathematical models building upon each other. A system is proposed in which algae recover waste nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) for reuse in agricultural production. The results of our study show that in so doing, the crop yield may be increased and simultaneously the density of algae in the lake may be reduced. This could be a way to mitigate and possibly solve the environmental and economic issues nowadays facing agriculture.

Phonon-Assisted Resonant Tunneling of Electrons in Graphene-Boron Nitride Transistors.

We observe a series of sharp resonant features in the differential conductance of graphene-hexagonal boron nitride-graphene tunnel transistors over a wide range of bias voltages between 10 and 200 mV. We attribute them to electron tunneling assisted by the emission of phonons of well-defined energy. The bias voltages at which they occur are insensitive to the applied gate voltage and hence independent of the carrier densities in the graphene electrodes, so plasmonic effects can be ruled out. The phonon energies corresponding to the resonances are compared with the lattice dispersion curves of graphene-boron nitride heterostructures and are close to peaks in the single phonon density of states.

Genetic diversity and structure in hill rice (Oryza sativa L.) landraces from the North-Eastern Himalayas of India.

BACKGROUND: Hill rices (Oryza sativa L.) are direct seeded rices grown on hill slopes of different gradients. These landraces have evolved under rainfed and harsh environmental conditions and may possess genes governing adaptation traits such as tolerance to cold and moisture stress. In this study, 64 hill rice landraces were collected from the state of Arunachal Pradesh of North-Eastern region of India, and assessed by agro-morphological variability and microsatellite markers polymorphism. Our aim was to use phenotypic and genetic diversity data to understand the basis of farmers' classification of hill rice landraces into two groups: umte and tening. Another goal was to understand the genetic differentiation of hill rices into Indica or japonica subspecies. RESULTS: According to farmers' classification, hill rices were categorized into two groups: umte (large-grained, late maturing) and tening (small-grained, early maturing). We did not find significant difference in days to 50 % flowering between the groups. Principal component analysis revealed that two groups can be distinguished on the basis of kernel length-to-width ration (KLW), kernel length (KL), grain length (GrL), grain length-to-width ration (GrLW) and plant height (Ht). Stepwise canonical discriminant analysis identified KL and Ht as the main discriminatory characters between the cultivar groups. Genetic diversity analysis with 35 SSR markers revealed considerable genetic diversity in the hill rice germplasm (gene diversity: 0.66; polymorphism information content: 0.62). Pair-wise allelic difference between umte and tening groups was not statistically significant. The model-based population structure analysis showed that the hill rices were clustered into two broad groups corresponding to Indica and Japonica. The geographic distribution and cultivars grouping of hill rices were not congruent in genetic clusters. Both distance- and model-based approaches indicated that the hill rices were predominantly japonica or admixture among the groups within the subspecies. These findings were further supported by combined analysis hill rices with 150 reference rice accessions representing major genetic groups of rice. CONCLUSION: This study collected a valuable set of hill rice germplasm for rice breeding and for evolutionary studies. It also generated a new set of information on genetic and phenotypic diversity of hill rice landraces in North-Eastern region of India. The collected hill rices were mostly japonica or admixture among the subpopulations of Indica or Japonica. The findings are useful for utilization and conservation of hill rice germplasm.

Development of CAPS markers to identify Indian tea (Camellia sinensis) clones with high catechin content.

Tea leaves are rich in plant secondary phenolics, especially flavonoids. Catechins are considered to be the most valuable flavonoids, and the catechin content in tea is an important trait for determining its quality. We have developed cleaved amplified polymorphic sequence (CAPS)-based markers for evaluating total catechin content that target two important secondary metabolite pathway genes, PAL (phenylalanine ammonia-lyase) and CHS (chalcone synthase). Catechin content levels in the tea samples tested ranged from 9 to 33 mg/mg. The CAPS technique identified clones with the homozygous profile PRc1, which has relatively lower catechin content than clones with the heterozygous profile PRc2. A significant difference (t = 16.85) in the level of catechin content was also detected between heterozygotes and homozygotes in the tea seed stock TS379. We found a polynomial relationship between the marker developed for CHS2 and catechin content in these tea samples with R2 = 0.9788. Moreover, PAL has less of a relationship with catechin content. Therefore, we recommend tea clones with heterozygous CAPS profiles for the gene CHS2+RcaI for the further improvement in these clones.

Experimental Quantification of Resolved Shear Stresses for Dislocation Motion in TiN.

Experimental quantification of the critical resolved shear stress (CRSS) at the level of unit dislocation glide is still a challenge. By using in situ nanoindentation in a high-resolution transmission electron microscope and strain analysis of the acquired structural images, the CRSS for the motion of individual dislocations on {110}⟨011⟩ slip system and glide dislocation re-emission from a tilt grain boundary in TiN are quantified. This work offers an approach to measure the local stresses associated with dislocation motion in high-strength materials.

Modeling the impact of awareness on the mitigation of algal bloom in a lake.

The proliferation of algal bloom in water bodies due to the enhanced concentration of nutrient inflow is becoming a global issue. A prime reason behind this aquatic catastrophe is agricultural runoff, which carries a large amount of nutrients that make the lakes more fertile and cause algal blooms. The only solution to this problem is curtailing the nutrient loading through agricultural runoff. This could be achieved by raising awareness among farmers to minimize the use of fertilizers in their farms. In view of this, in this paper, we propose a mathematical model to study the effect of awareness among the farmers of the mitigation of algal bloom in a lake. The growth rate of awareness among the farmers is assumed to be proportional to the density of algae in the lake. It is further assumed that the presence of awareness among the farmers reduces the inflow rate of nutrients through agricultural runoff and helps to remove the detritus by cleaning the bottom of the lake. The results evoke that raising awareness among farmers may be a plausible factor for the mitigation of algal bloom in the lake. Numerical simulations identify the most critical parameters that influence the blooms and provide indications to possibly mitigate it.

Decadal changes in the land use/land cover and shoreline along the coastal districts of southern Gujarat, India.

The coastal zone along the districts of Surat, Navsari, and Valsad in southern Gujarat, India, is reported to be facing serious environmental challenges in the form of shoreline erosion, wetland loss, and man-made encroachments. This study assesses the decadal land use/ land cover (LULC) changes in these three districts for the years 1990, 2001, and 2014 using satellite datasets of Landsat TM, ETM, and OLI. The LULC changes are identified by using band ratios as a pre-classification step, followed by implementation of hybrid classification (a combination of supervised and unsupervised classification). An accuracy assessment is carried out for each dataset, and the overall accuracy ranges from 90 to 95%. It is observed that the spatial extents of aquaculture, urban built-up, and barren classes have appreciated over time, whereas the coverage of mudflats has depreciated due to rapid urbanization. The changes in the shoreline of these districts have also been analyzed for the same years, and significant changes are found in the form of shoreline erosion. The LULC maps prepared as well as the shoreline change analysis done for this study area will enable the local decision makers to adopt better land-use planning and shoreline protection measures, which will further aid in sustainable future developments in this region.

Diabetes in South Asians.

Economic, dietary and other lifestyle transitions have been occurring rapidly in most South Asian countries, making their populations more vulnerable to developing Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Recent data show an increasing prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in urban areas as well as in semi-urban and rural areas, inclusive of people belonging to middle and low socio-economic strata. Prime determinants for Type 2 diabetes in South Asians include physical inactivity, imbalanced diets, abdominal obesity, excess hepatic fat and, possibly, adverse perinatal and early life nutrition and intra-country migration. It is reported that Type 2 diabetes affects South Asians a decade earlier and some complications, for example nephropathy, are more prevalent and progressive than in other races. Further, prevalence of pre-diabetes is high, and so is conversion to diabetes, while more than 50% of those who are affected remain undiagnosed. Attitudes, cultural differences and religious and social beliefs pose barriers in effective prevention and management of Type 2 diabetes in South Asians. Inadequate resources, insufficient healthcare budgets, lack of medical reimbursement and socio-economic factors contribute to the cost of diabetes management. The challenge is to develop new translational strategies, which are pragmatic, cost-effective and scalable and can be adopted by the South Asian countries with limited resources. The key areas that need focus are: generation of awareness, prioritizing health care for vulnerable subgroups (children, women, pregnant women and the underprivileged), screening of high-risk groups, maximum coverage of the population with essential medicines, and strengthening primary care. An effective national diabetes control programme in each South Asian country should be formulated, with these issues in mind.

Forecasting of Indian tourism industry using modeling approach.

Currently, India has become one of the largest economies of the world in which tourism and hospitality have significantly contributed; however, the growth rate of tourism industry has been greatly affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we have used the modeling approach to analyze and understand the growth pattern of Indian tourism industry. To achieve this, we consider the data of international tourist arrivals before and after the lockdown. The Dickey-Fuller test, AIC and BIC methods are used to obtain the best fitted model and further, the accuracy of obtained model is also analyzed. Data and forecasting indicate that the weather and public holidays significantly affect the tourism industry.

Modeling the impact of hospital beds and vaccination on the dynamics of an infectious disease.

The unprecedented scale and rapidity of dissemination of re-emerging and emerging infectious diseases impose new challenges for regulators and health authorities. To curb the dispersal of such diseases, proper management of healthcare facilities and vaccines are core drivers. In the present work, we assess the unified impact of healthcare facilities and vaccination on the control of an infectious disease by formulating a mathematical model. To formulate the model for any region, we consider four classes of human population; namely, susceptible, infected, hospitalized, and vaccinated. It is assumed that the increment in number of beds in hospitals is continuously made in proportion to the number of infected individuals. To ensure the occurrence of transcritical, saddle-node and Hopf bifurcations, the conditions are derived. The normal form is obtained to show the existence of Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. To validate the analytically obtained results, we have conducted some numerical simulations. These results will be useful to public health authorities for planning appropriate health care resources and vaccination programs to diminish prevalence of infectious diseases.

Stable storage of helium in nanoscale platelets at semicoherent interfaces.

He implanted into metals precipitates into nanoscale bubbles that may later grow into voids, degrading the properties of engineering alloys. Using multiscale modeling, we show that a different class of He precipitates may form at semicoherent interfaces: nanoscale platelets. These platelets grow by wetting high-energy interface regions, remain stable under irradiation, and reduce He-induced swelling. Stable storage of He at interfaces may impart unprecedented He resistance to future structural materials.

Are nanoporous materials radiation resistant?

The key to perfect radiation endurance is perfect recovery. Since surfaces are perfect sinks for defects, a porous material with a high surface to volume ratio has the potential to be extremely radiation tolerant, provided it is morphologically stable in a radiation environment. Experiments and computer simulations on nanoscale gold foams reported here show the existence of a window in the parameter space where foams are radiation tolerant. We analyze these results in terms of a model for the irradiation response that quantitatively locates such window that appears to be the consequence of the combined effect of two length scales dependent on the irradiation conditions: (i) foams with ligament diameters below a minimum value display ligament melting and breaking, together with compaction increasing with dose (this value is typically ∼5 nm for primary knock on atoms (PKA) of ∼15 keV in Au), while (ii) foams with ligament diameters above a maximum value show bulk behavior, that is, damage accumulation (few hundred nanometers for the PKA's energy and dose rate used in this study). In between these dimensions, (i.e., ∼100 nm in Au), defect migration to the ligament surface happens faster than the time between cascades, ensuring radiation resistance for a given dose-rate. We conclude that foams can be tailored to become radiation tolerant.

Return of visual acuity to normal in old age.

Changes occur in our body through out life. Decreased visual acuity is probably the most common effect of age-related anatomical and neurological changes in the eyes and the visual pathway. However, this case is an exception as at the age of 75 years, his power of accommodation has returned to normal. The improvement in accommodation and visual acuity is hard to explain. Likely explanations given need to be further investigated.