Altering product placement to create a healthier layout in supermarkets: Outcomes on store sales, customer purchasing, and diet in a prospective matched controlled cluster study.

BACKGROUND: Previous product placement trials in supermarkets are limited in scope and outcome data collected. This study assessed the effects on store-level sales, household-level purchasing, and dietary behaviours of a healthier supermarket layout. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a prospective matched controlled cluster trial with 2 intervention components: (i) new fresh fruit and vegetable sections near store entrances (replacing smaller displays at the back) and frozen vegetables repositioned to the entrance aisle, plus (ii) the removal of confectionery from checkouts and aisle ends opposite. In this pilot study, the intervention was implemented for 6 months in 3 discount supermarkets in England. Three control stores were matched on store sales and customer profiles and neighbourhood deprivation. Women customers aged 18 to 45 years, with loyalty cards, were assigned to the intervention (n = 62) or control group (n = 88) of their primary store. The trial registration number is NCT03518151. Interrupted time series analysis showed that increases in store-level sales of fruits and vegetables were greater in intervention stores than predicted at 3 (1.71 standard deviations (SDs) (95% CI 0.45, 2.96), P = 0.01) and 6 months follow-up (2.42 SDs (0.22, 4.62), P = 0.03), equivalent to approximately 6,170 and approximately 9,820 extra portions per store, per week, respectively. The proportion of purchasing fruits and vegetables per week rose among intervention participants at 3 and 6 months compared to control participants (0.2% versus -3.0%, P = 0.22; 1.7% versus -3.5%, P = 0.05, respectively). Store sales of confectionery were lower in intervention stores than predicted at 3 (-1.05 SDs (-1.98, -0.12), P = 0.03) and 6 months (-1.37 SDs (-2.95, 0.22), P = 0.09), equivalent to approximately 1,359 and approximately 1,575 fewer portions per store, per week, respectively; no differences were observed for confectionery purchasing. Changes in dietary variables were predominantly in the expected direction for health benefit. Intervention implementation was not within control of the research team, and stores could not be randomised. It is a pilot study, and, therefore, not powered to detect an effect. CONCLUSIONS: Healthier supermarket layouts can improve the nutrition profile of store sales and likely improve household purchasing and dietary quality. Placing fruits and vegetables near store entrances should be considered alongside policies to limit prominent placement of unhealthy foods. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03518151 (pre-results).

Examination of how food environment and psychological factors interact in their relationship with dietary behaviours: test of a cross-sectional model.

BACKGROUND: To improve population diet environmental strategies have been hailed the panacea because they require little agency or investment of personal resources; this contrasts with conventional strategies that rely on individuals to engage high levels of agency and make deliberate choices. There is an immediate need to improve understanding of the synergy between the psychological and environmental determinants of diet in order to optimise allocation of precious public health resources. This study examined the synergistic and relative association between a number of food environment and psychological factors and the dietary behaviours of a population sample of women with young children. METHODS: Women in Hampshire were recruited from children's centres and asked about their demographic characteristics, psychological resources, dietary behaviours (food frequency questionnaire) and perceptions of healthy food access and affordability. Three local food environment factors were objectively assessed: i) spatial access to food outlets using activity spaces; ii) healthfulness of the supermarket where women did their main food shop, (based on nine in-store factors including price, placement and promotion on seven healthy and five less healthy foods); iii) nutrition environment of children's centres visited frequently by the women, assessed via staff-administered questionnaire. A theoretical model linking environmental factors to dietary behaviours, both directly and indirectly through three factors representing individual agency (psychological resources, perceived food affordability, perceived food accessibility), was tested using Structural Equation Modelling. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 753 women. The environment of women's main supermarket was indirectly related to their dietary behaviours through psychological resources and perceived food affordability. Shopping at supermarkets classified as having a healthier in-store environment was associated with having greater psychological resources associated with healthy eating (standardised regression weight ß = 0.14SD, p = 0.03) and fewer food affordability concerns (ß = - 0.14SD, p = 0.01), which in turn related to healthier dietary behaviours (ß = 0.55SD, < 0.001 and ß = - 0.15, p = 0.01 respectively). The three food environment factors were not directly associated with dietary behaviour (p > 0.3). The overall model fit was good (CFI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.05 [0.05, 0.06]). CONCLUSIONS: This pathway analysis identified three focal points for intervention and suggests that high-agency interventions targeting individual psychological resources when combined with low-agency supermarket environment interventions may confer greater benefits on dietary behaviours than either intervention alone.

Smoking and Religion: Untangling Associations Using English Survey Data.

While factors affecting smoking are well documented, the role of religion has received little attention. This national study aims to assess the extent to which religious affiliation is associated with current-smoking and ever-smoking, controlling for age, sex, ethnicity and socio-economic status. Variations between adult and youth populations are examined using secondary analysis of individual-level data from 5 years of the Health Survey for England for adult (aged >20, n = 39,837) and youth (aged 16-20, n = 2355) samples. Crude prevalence statistics are contrasted with binary logistic models for current-smoking and ever-smoking in the adult and youth samples. Analyses suggest that Muslims smoke substantially less than Christians. Highest levels of smoking characterise people not professing any religion. Associations between smoking and the Muslim religion attenuate to statistical insignificance in the face of ethnic and socio-economic factors. An association between smoking and the absence of a religious affiliation is sustained. An understanding of the association between smoking and religion is essential to the development of tobacco control programmes.

A realist approach to the evaluation of complex mental health interventions.

Conventional approaches to evidence that prioritise randomised controlled trials appear increasingly inadequate for the evaluation of complex mental health interventions. By focusing on causal mechanisms and understanding the complex interactions between interventions, patients and contexts, realist approaches offer a productive alternative. Although the approaches might be combined, substantial barriers remain.Declaration of interestAll authors had financial support from the National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme while completing this work. The views and opinions expressed therein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Health Service, the National Institute for Health Research, the Medical Research Council, Central Commissioning Facility, National Institute for Health Research Evaluation, Trials and Studies Coordinating Centre, the Health Services and Delivery Research Programme or the Department of Health. S.P.S. is part funded by Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care West Midlands. K.B. is editor of the British Journal of Psychiatry.

The spatial structure of chronic morbidity: evidence from UK census returns.

BACKGROUND: Disease prevalence models have been widely used to estimate health, lifestyle and disability characteristics for small geographical units when other data are not available. Yet, knowledge is often lacking about how to make informed decisions around the specification of such models, especially regarding spatial assumptions placed on their covariance structure. This paper is concerned with understanding processes of spatial dependency in unexplained variation in chronic morbidity. METHODS: 2011 UK census data on limiting long-term illness (LLTI) is used to look at the spatial structure in chronic morbidity across England and Wales. The variance and spatial clustering of the odds of LLTI across local authority districts (LADs) and middle layer super output areas are measured across 40 demographic cross-classifications. A series of adjacency matrices based on distance, contiguity and migration flows are tested to examine the spatial structure in LLTI. Odds are then modelled using a logistic mixed model to examine the association with district-level covariates and their predictive power. RESULTS: The odds of chronic illness are more dispersed than local age characteristics, mortality, hospitalisation rates and chance alone would suggest. Of all adjacency matrices, the three-nearest neighbour method is identified as the best fitting. Migration flows can also be used to construct spatial weights matrices which uncover non-negligible autocorrelation. Once the most important characteristics observable at the LAD-level are taken into account, substantial spatial autocorrelation remains which can be modelled explicitly to improve disease prevalence predictions. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic investigation of spatial structures and dependency is important to develop model-based estimation tools in chronic disease mapping. Spatial structures reflecting migration interactions are easy to develop and capture autocorrelation in LLTI. Patterns of spatial dependency in the geographical distribution of LLTI are not comparable across ethnic groups. Ethnic stratification of local health information is needed and there is potential to further address complexity in prevalence models by improving access to disaggregated data.

Using geocoded survey data to improve the accuracy of multilevel small area synthetic estimates.

This paper examines the secondary data requirements for multilevel small area synthetic estimation (ML-SASE). This research method uses secondary survey data sets as source data for statistical models. The parameters of these models are used to generate data for small areas. The paper assesses the impact of knowing the geographical location of survey respondents on the accuracy of estimates, moving beyond debating the generic merits of geocoded social survey datasets to examine quantitatively the hypothesis that knowing the approximate location of respondents can improve the accuracy of the resultant estimates. Four sets of synthetic estimates are generated to predict expected levels of limiting long term illnesses using different levels of knowledge about respondent location. The estimates were compared to comprehensive census data on limiting long term illness (LLTI). Estimates based on fully geocoded data were more accurate than estimates based on data that did not include geocodes.

Small area synthetic estimates of smoking prevalence during pregnancy in England.

BACKGROUND: Complete and accurate data on maternal smoking prevalence during pregnancy are not available at a local geographical scale in England. We employ a synthetic estimation approach to predict the expected prevalence of smoking during pregnancy and smoking at delivery by Primary Care Trust (PCT). METHODS: Multilevel logistic regression models were used with data from the 2010 Infant Feeding Survey and 2011 Census to predict the probability of mothers (a) smoking at any point during pregnancy and (b) smoking at delivery, according to age, deprivation, and the ethnic profile of the home area. These probabilities were applied to demographic information on mothers giving birth from 2010/11 Hospital Episode Statistics data to produce expected counts, and prevalence figures, of smokers by PCT, with Bayesian 95 % credible intervals. The expected prevalence of smoking at delivery by PCT was compared with midwife-collected Smoking at the Time of Delivery (SATOD) data using a Bland-Altman plot. RESULTS: The expected prevalence of smoking during pregnancy by PCT ranged from 8.1 % (95 % CI 5.6-1.0) to 31.6 % (27.5-34.8). The expected prevalence of smoking at delivery ranged from 2.5 % (1.4-4.0) to 17.1 % (13.7-20.4). Figures for expected smoking prevalence at delivery showed some agreement with SATOD, though SATOD data were generally higher than the synthetic estimates (mean difference 2.99 %). CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to derive good estimates of expected smoking prevalence during pregnancy for small areas, potentially at much lower cost than conducting large surveys. Such data may be useful to help plan and commission smoking cessation services and monitor their effectiveness.

Measuring the healthfulness of food retail stores: variations by store type and neighbourhood deprivation.

BACKGROUND: The consumer nutrition environment has been conceptualised as in-store environmental factors that influence food shopping habits. More healthful in-store environments could be characterised as those which promote healthful food choices such as selling good quality healthy foods or placing them in prominent locations to prompt purchasing. Research measuring the full-range of in-store environmental factors concurrently is limited. PURPOSE: To develop a summary score of 'healthfulness' composed of nine in-store factors that influence food shopping behaviour, and to assess this score by store type and neighbourhood deprivation. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of 601 retail food stores, including supermarkets, grocery stores and convenience stores, was completed in Hampshire, United Kingdom between July 2010 and June 2011. The survey measured nine variables (variety, price, quality, promotions, shelf placement, store placement, nutrition information, healthier alternatives and single fruit sale) to assess the healthfulness of retail food stores on seven healthy and five less healthy foods that are markers of diet quality. Four steps were completed to create nine individual variable scores and another three to create an overall score of healthfulness for each store. RESULTS: Analysis of variance showed strong evidence of a difference in overall healthfulness by store type (p < 0.001). Large and premium supermarkets offered the most healthful shopping environments for consumers. Discount supermarkets, 'world', convenience and petrol stores offered less healthful environments to consumers however there was variation across the healthfulness spectrum. No relationship between overall healthfulness and neighbourhood deprivation was observed (p = 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: A new composite measure of nine variables that can influence food choices was developed to provide an overall assessment of the healthfulness of retail food stores. This composite score could be useful in future research to measure the relationship between main food store and quality of diet, and to evaluate the effects of multi-component food environment interventions.

Chronic kidney disease, albuminuria and socioeconomic status in the Health Surveys for England 2009 and 2010.

BACKGROUND: Renal replacement therapy rates are inversely related to socioeconomic status (SES) in developed countries. The relationship between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and SES is less clear. This study examined the relationships between SES and CKD and albuminuria in England. METHODS: Data from the Health Survey for England 2009 and 2010 were combined. The prevalence of CKD 3-5 and albuminuria was calculated, and logistic regression used to determine their association with five individual-level measures and one area-level measure of SES. RESULTS: The prevalence of CKD 3-5 was 5.2% and albuminuria 8.0%. Age-sex-adjusted CKD 3-5 was associated with lack of qualifications [odds ratio (OR) 2.27 (95% confidence interval 1.40-3.69)], low income [OR 1.50 (1.02-2.21)] and renting tenure [OR 1.36 (1.01-1.84)]. Only tenure remained significant in fully adjusted models suggesting that co-variables were on the causal pathway. Albuminuria remained associated with several SES measures on full adjustment: low income [OR 1.55 (1.14-2.11)], no vehicle [OR 1.38 (1.05-1.81)], renting [OR 1.31 [1.03-1.67)] and most deprived area-level quintile [OR 1.55 (1.07-2.25)]. CONCLUSIONS: CKD 3-5 and albuminuria were associated with low SES using several measures. For albuminuria this was not explained by known measured causal factors.

Do general medical practice characteristics influence the effectiveness of smoking cessation programs? A multilevel analysis.

INTRODUCTION: General practice is a recommended setting for the delivery of smoking cessation programs. Little is known about the types of practice that achieve higher cessation rates. To address this gap in knowledge, we assessed the impact of general practice characteristics on the outcomes of a large scale smoking cessation intervention delivered in general practice settings. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 7,778 participants enrolled on a structured cessation program comprising repeated brief interventions in one-to-one sessions and nicotine replacement therapy in Christchurch New Zealand, 2001-2007. We employed a logistic multilevel analysis of respondents nested in general practices with cessation at 6 months as the outcome measure. RESULTS: After taking into account relevant individual-level predictors (age, sex, smoking intensity) and area-level surrogates for individual predictors (socioeconomic status and access to tobacco retail outlets), there remained significant variation in quit rates between practices. This variation reduced when practice characteristics were included. Practices with a majority of male doctors and practices with fewer male patients were associated with better quit rates. Practices with large numbers of doctors were less effective in achieving cessation with heavy smokers. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of smoking cessation programs can be influenced significantly by practice characteristics. To increase quit rates, more attention should be paid to the institutional setting of smoking cessation programs. Assessments of the effectiveness of cessation programs should give appropriate recognition to the fact that some practices may find higher quit rates more difficult to achieve.

Geography and global health.

In the wake of the report of the World Health Organisation's Commission on the Social Determinants of Health, Closing the gap in a generation (Marmot 2008), this invited commentary considers the scope for geographical research on global health. We reflect on current work and note future possibilities, particularly those that take a critical perspective on the interplay of globalisation, security and health.

Navigating the LGB Data Landscape: A Review of Appropriate Secondary Data Sources for Sexuality and Substance Use Research in the UK.

Research has found that sexual minority individuals are more likely to experience health inequalities and have higher rates of substance use compared with their heterosexual counterparts. This association between sexuality and health outcomes is increasingly being explored using quantitative methodologies within the context of public health, psychology and health geography. Much of this research, however, has relied on primary data, despite the wide availability of secondary sources, mainly survey data, collecting information on sexuality and different types of health outcomes and health risk behaviours, such as substance use. This study reviewed recent surveys in the UK that are appropriate for exploring topics related to LGB populations and substance use behaviours. We carried out a narrative review of secondary data sources in the UK to assess the accessibility and suitability of secondary sources for sexuality and substance use research. We identified eight cross-sectional and two longitudinal surveys that contained both sexuality and substance use data. We summarised the possible applications of each survey and the scope of questions within sexuality and substance use research that could be addressed by each survey. The identification of appropriate surveys in this review can allow researchers to extend the use of secondary data sources in the UK to examine substance use inequalities between sexuality groups, further advancing this key topic.

Adult diet in England: Where is more support needed to achieve dietary recommendations?

BACKGROUND: Small-area estimation models are regularly commissioned by public health bodies to identify areas of greater inequality and target areas for intervention in a range of behaviours and outcomes. Such local modelling has not been completed for diet consumption in England despite diet being an important predictor of health status. The study sets out whether aspects of adult diet can be modelled from previously collected data to define and evaluate area-level interventions to address obesity and ill-health. METHODS: Adults aged 16 years and over living in England. Consumption of fruit, vegetables, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are modelled using small-area estimation methods in English neighbourhoods (Middle Super Output Areas [MSOA]) to identify areas where reported portions are significantly different from recommended levels of consumption. The selected aspects of diet are modelled from respondents in the National Diet and Nutrition Survey using pooled data from 2008-2016. RESULTS: Estimates indicate that the average prevalence of adults consuming less than one portion of fruit, vegetables or 100% juice each day by MSOA is 6.9% (range of 4.3 to 14.7%, SE 0.06) and the average prevalence of drinking more than 330ml/day of SSB is 11.5% (range of 5.7 to 30.5%, SE 0.03). Credible intervals around the estimates are wider for SSB consumption. The results identify areas including regions in London, urban areas in the North of England and the South coast which may be prioritised for targeted interventions to support reduced consumption of SSB and/or an increase in portions of fruit and vegetables. CONCLUSION: These estimates provide valuable information at a finer spatial scale than is presently feasible, allowing for within-country and locality prioritisation of resources to improve diet. Local, targeted interventions to improve fruit and vegetable consumption such as subsidies or voucher schemes should be considered where consumption of these foods is predicted to be low.

Do geodemographic typologies explain variations in uptake in colorectal cancer screening? An assessment using routine screening data in the south of England.

BACKGROUND: Uptake of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in UK is less than 60%. Geodemographic typologies are useful in describing patterns of individual preventive health behaviour but little is known of their value in assessing uptake of CRC screening, or how this compares to traditional measures of area deprivation. METHODS: We used data on CRC screening uptake in the South Central, South-East Coast and South-West England National Health Service regions in multilevel logistic regression to describe the effects of individual composition and contextual factors (area deprivation and geodemographic segments) on non-response to screening invitation. The relative impact of geodemographic segmentation and the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) 2007 was compared. The potential population impact of a targeted increase in uptake in specific geodemographic segments was examined. RESULTS: About 88 891 eligible adults were invited to be screened from 2006 to 2008. Uptake rate was 57.3% (CI: 57.0-57.7) and was lower amongst younger persons, men, residents of more deprived areas and people in specific geodemographic segments. Age and gender were significant determinants of uptake and contextual factors explained an additional 3% of the variation. Geodemographic segmentation reduced this residual contextual variation in uptake more than the IMD 2007 (72% vs. 53% reduction). The three geodemographic types that best predicted non-response were characterized by both ethnic mix and a higher than average proportion of single pensioner households renting council properties. Achieving average uptake in the 2.3% of the study population in these geodemographic segments would only increase the total population uptake rate by 0.5% (57.3-57.8%). CONCLUSION: Variation in the CRC screening uptake in Southern England is principally explained by characteristics of individuals but contextual factors also have a small but significant effect. This effect is captured in greater detail by geodemographic segmentation than by IMD 2007. This information could be used to inform the design of interventions aiming to improve uptake.

Twenty-five years of Health & Place: Citation classics, internationalism and interdisciplinarity.

To mark 25 years of Health & Place Health & Place, we identify and appraise some key contributions to the journal over this period. We use citation data to identify 'classics' from the journal's back catalogue. We also examine trends in the international reach and disciplinary homes of our authors. We show that there has been a near 7-fold increase in the number of published papers between the early and most recent years of the journal and that the journal's citation levels are amongst the top 2% of social science journals. Amongst the most cited papers, some clear themes are evident such as physical activity, diet/food, obesity and topics relating to greenspace. The profile of the journal's authors is becoming more internationally diverse, represents a broader range of disciplines, and increasingly demonstrating cross/interdisciplinary ways of working. Although Anglophone countries have led the way, there is an increasing number of contributions from elsewhere including emerging economies such as China. We conclude with some comments on likely future directions for the journal including enduring concerns such as greenspace, obesity, diet and unhealthy commodities (alcohol, tobacco, ultra-processed food) as well as more recent directions including planetary health, longitudinal and lifecourse analyses, and the opportunities (and challenges) of big data and machine learning. Whatever the thematic concerns of the papers over next 25 years, we will continue to welcome outstanding research that is concerned with the importance place makes to health.

Trends in smoking prevalence over time and space: A comparison between sexual minority and heterosexual populations.

Research has suggested that lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) individuals are more likely to smoke tobacco than heterosexual individuals, but specific geographic patterns have not been examined frequently. We analysed change in smoking prevalence over time across Great Britain for LGB and heterosexual populations, comparing models for men and women. Smoking prevalence remained greater for sexual minority (SM) women over time than for other groups. Across Great Britain, decreases in smoking prevalence in urban areas were more pronounced for SM men compared with SM women. Future anti-smoking policies should consider sexuality and its association with place to eradicate smoking inequalities.

Protocol of a natural experiment to evaluate a supermarket intervention to improve food purchasing and dietary behaviours of women (WRAPPED study) in England: a prospective matched controlled cluster design.

INTRODUCTION: Poor diet is a leading risk factor for non-communicable diseases and costs the National Health Service £5.8 billion annually. Product placement strategies used extensively in food outlets, like supermarkets, can influence customers' preferences. Policy-makers, including the UK Government, are considering legislation to ensure placement strategies promote healthier food purchasing and dietary habits. High-quality scientific evidence is needed to inform future policy action. This study will assess whether healthier placement strategies in supermarkets improve household purchasing patterns and the diets of more than one household member. METHODS AND ANALYSES: This natural experiment, with a prospective matched controlled cluster design, is set in discount supermarkets across England. The primary objective is to investigate whether enhanced placement of fresh fruit and vegetables improves household-level purchasing of these products after 6 months. Secondary objectives will examine: (1) differences in intervention effects on purchasing by level of educational attainment, (2) intervention effects on the dietary quality of women and their young children, (3) intervention effects on store-level sales of fruit and vegetables and (4) cost-effectiveness of the intervention from individual, retailer and societal perspectives. Up to 810 intervention and 810 control participants will be recruited from 18 intervention and 18 matched control stores. Eligible participants will be women aged 18-45 years, who hold a loyalty card and shop in a study store. Each control store will be matched to an intervention store on: (1) sales profile, (2) neighbourhood deprivation and (3) customer profile. A detailed process evaluation will assess intervention implementation, mechanisms of impact and, social and environmental contexts. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was obtained from the University of Southampton, Faculty of Medicine Ethics Committee (ID 20986.A5). Primary, secondary and process evaluation results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals and shared with policy-makers. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03573973; Pre-results.

Moving beyond randomized controlled trials in the evaluation of compulsory community treatment.

Compulsory community treatment for people with severe mental illness remains controversial due to conflicting research evidence. Recently, there have been challenges to the conventional view that trial-based evidence should take precedence. This paper adds to these challenges in three ways. First, it emphasizes the need for critiques of trials to engage with conceptual and not just technical issues. Second, it develops a critique of trials centred on both how we can have knowledge and what it is we can have knowledge of. Third, it uses this critique to develop a research strategy that capitalizes on the information in large-scale datasets.

Community inequality and smoking cessation in New Zealand, 1981-2006.

The overall prevalence of smoking in New Zealand reduced from 32% in 1981 to 23.5% in 2006 but rates of smoking cessation have not been consistent among all social, demographic and ethnic groups. The period 1981-2006 also saw macroeconomic changes in New Zealand that resulted in profound increases in social and economic inequalities. Within this socio-political context we address two questions. First, has there been a social polarisation in smoking prevalence and cessation in New Zealand between 1981 and 2006? Second, to what extent can ethnic variation in rates of quitting be explained by community inequality, independently of socio-economic status? We find that smoking behaviour in New Zealand has become socially and ethnically more polarised over the past two decades, with greater levels of smoking cessation among higher socio-economic groups, and among New Zealanders of European origin. Variations in quit rates between Maori and European New Zealanders cannot be fully accounted for by ethnic differences in socio-economic status. Community inequality exerted a significant influence on Maori (but not European) smoking quit rates. The association with community inequality was particularly profound among women, and for particular age groups living in urban areas. These findings extend the international evidence for a relationship between social inequality and health, and in particular smoking behaviour. The research also confirms the importance of considering the role of contextual factors when attempting to elucidate the mechanisms linking socio-economic factors to health outcomes. Our findings emphasise that, if future smoking cessation strategies are to be successful, attention has to shift from policies that focus solely on engineering individual behavioural change, to an inclusion of the role of environmental stressors such as community inequality.

Smoking cessation in England: intentionality, anticipated ease of quitting and advice provision.

Smoking prevalence in England continues to reduce but further reduction is increasingly difficult. Cessation policy has successfully targeted those who want to quit but further reduction will need to shift attention to more difficult 'core smoker' populations. Following the established 'stages of change' perspective, this paper considers the characteristics of people who do not intend to quit smoking, anticipate difficulties in quitting and have not received advice about quitting. We deploy multilevel models of data drawn from the Health Survey for England years 2002-2004, and the NHS Primary Care Trust Patient Surveys for 2004 and 2005. It was found that variations in intentionality and anticipated ease of quitting are associated with individual factors such as smoking intensity, parental smoking, age/length of time as a smoker and the nature of the advice-giving consultation. Household composition and household income are also implicated in the intention to quit and anticipated difficulties in quitting. Once individual and household factors are taken into account the only identifiable area-level variation is reduced intentionality towards quitting in rural areas. We conclude by arguing that further gains in smoking cessation must focus on understanding the characteristics of 'hard-to-engage' populations.