Statistical approaches for the integration of external controls in a cystic fibrosis clinical trial: a simulation and an application.

Development of new therapeutics for a rare disease such as cystic fibrosis (CF) is hindered by challenges in accruing enough patients for clinical trials. Using external controls from well-matched historical trials can reduce prospective trial sizes, and this approach has supported regulatory approval of new interventions for other rare diseases. We consider three statistical methods that incorporate external controls into a hypothetical clinical trial of a new treatment to reduce pulmonary exacerbations in CF patients: 1) inverse probability weighting, 2) Bayesian modeling with propensity score-based power priors, and 3) hierarchical Bayesian modeling with commensurate priors. We compare the methods via simulation study and in a real clinical trial data setting. Simulations showed that bias in the treatment effect was <4% using any of the methods, with type 1 error (or in the Bayesian cases, posterior probability of the null hypothesis) usually <5%. Inverse probability weighting was sensitive to similarity in prevalence of the covariates between historical and prospective trial populations. The commensurate prior method performed best with real clinical trial data. Using external controls to reduce trial size in future clinical trials holds promise and can advance the therapeutic pipeline for rare diseases.

Road Traffic Injuries and the Built Environment in Bogotá, Colombia, 2015-2019: A Cross-Sectional Analysis.

Nine in 10 road traffic deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite this disproportionate burden, few studies have examined built environment correlates of road traffic injury in these settings, including in Latin America. We examined road traffic collisions in Bogotá, Colombia, occurring between 2015 and 2019, and assessed the association between neighborhood-level built environment features and pedestrian injury and death. We used descriptive statistics to characterize all police-reported road traffic collisions that occurred in Bogotá between 2015 and 2019. Cluster detection was used to identify spatial clustering of pedestrian collisions. Adjusted multivariate Poisson regression models were fit to examine associations between several neighborhood-built environment features and rate of pedestrian road traffic injury and death. A total of 173,443 police-reported traffic collisions occurred in Bogotá between 2015 and 2019. Pedestrians made up about 25% of road traffic injuries and 50% of road traffic deaths in Bogotá between 2015 and 2019. Pedestrian collisions were spatially clustered in the southwestern region of Bogotá. Neighborhoods with more street trees (RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98), traffic signals (0.89, 0.81-0.99), and bus stops (0.89, 0.82-0.97) were associated with lower pedestrian road traffic deaths. Neighborhoods with greater density of large roads were associated with higher pedestrian injury. Our findings highlight the potential for pedestrian-friendly infrastructure to promote safer interactions between pedestrians and motorists in Bogotá and in similar urban contexts globally.

Identifying emerging hot spots of road traffic injury severity using spatiotemporal methods: longitudinal analyses on major roads in Ghana from 2005 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Although road traffic injuries and deaths have decreased globally, there is substantial national and sub-national heterogeneity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Ghana is one of few countries in Africa collecting comprehensive, spatially detailed data on motor vehicle collisions (MVCs). This data is a critical step towards improving roadway safety, as accurate and reliable information is essential for devising targeted countermeasures. METHODS: Here, we analyze 16 years of police-report data using emerging hot spot analysis in ArcGIS to identify hot spots with trends of increasing injury severity (a weighted composite measure of MVCs, minor injuries, severe injuries, and deaths), and counts of injuries, severe injuries, and deaths along major roads in urban and rural areas of Ghana. RESULTS: We find injury severity index sums and minor injury counts are significantly decreasing over time in Ghana while severe injury and death counts are not, indicating the latter should be the focus for road safety efforts. We identify new, consecutive, intensifying, and persistent hot spots on 2.65% of urban roads and 4.37% of rural roads. Hot spots are intensifying in terms of severity and frequency on major roads in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: A few key road sections, particularly in rural areas, show elevated levels of road traffic injury severity, warranting targeted interventions. Our method for evaluating spatiotemporal trends in MVC, road traffic injuries, and deaths in a LMIC includes sufficient detail for replication and adaptation in other countries, which is useful for targeting countermeasures and tracking progress.

Association between any underlying health condition and COVID-19-associated hospitalization by age group, Washington State, 2020-2021: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Presence of at least one underlying health condition (UHC) is positively associated with severe COVID-19, but there is limited research examining this association by age group, particularly among young adults. METHODS: We examined age-stratified associations between any UHC and COVID-19-associated hospitalization using a retrospective cohort study of electronic health record data from the University of Washington Medicine healthcare system for adult patients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test from February 29, 2020, to March 13, 2021. Any UHC was defined as documented diagnosis of at least one UHC identified by the CDC as a potential risk factor for severe COVID-19. Adjusting for sex, age, race and ethnicity, and health insurance, we estimated risk ratios (aRRs) and risk differences (aRDs), overall and by age group (18-39, 40-64, and 65 + years). RESULTS: Among patients aged 18-39 (N = 3,249), 40-64 (N = 2,840), 65 + years (N = 1,363), and overall (N = 7,452), 57.5%, 79.4%, 89.4%, and 71.7% had at least one UHC, respectively. Overall, 4.4% of patients experienced COVID-19-associated hospitalization. For all age groups, the risk of COVID-19-associated hospitalization was greater for patients with any UHC vs. those without (18-39: 2.2% vs. 0.4%; 40-64: 5.6% vs. 0.3%; 65 + : 12.2% vs. 2.8%; overall: 5.9% vs. 0.6%). The aRR comparing patients with vs. those without UHCs was notably higher for patients aged 40-64 years (aRR [95% CI] for 18-39: 4.3 [1.8, 10.0]; 40-64: 12.9 [3.2, 52.5]; 65 + : 3.1 [1.2, 8.2]; overall: 5.3 [3.0, 9.6]). The aRDs increased across age groups (aRD [95% CI] per 1,000 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons for 18-39: 10 [2, 18]; 40-64: 43 [33, 54]; 65 + : 84 [51, 116]; overall: 28 [21, 35]). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with UHCs are at significantly increased risk of COVID-19-associated hospitalization regardless of age. Our findings support the prevention of severe COVID-19 in adults with UHCs in all age groups and in older adults aged 65 + years as ongoing local public health priorities.

G-Computation and Agent-Based Modeling for Social Epidemiology: Can Population Interventions Prevent Posttraumatic Stress Disorder?

Agent-based modeling and g-computation can both be used to estimate impacts of intervening on complex systems. We explored each modeling approach within an applied example: interventions to reduce posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We used data from a cohort of 2,282 adults representative of the adult population of the New York City metropolitan area from 2002-2006, of whom 16.3% developed PTSD over their lifetimes. We built 4 models: g-computation, an agent-based model (ABM) with no between-agent interactions, an ABM with violent-interaction dynamics, and an ABM with neighborhood dynamics. Three interventions were tested: 1) reducing violent victimization by 37.2% (real-world reduction); 2) reducing violent victimization by100%; and 3) supplementing the income of 20% of lower-income participants. The g-computation model estimated population-level PTSD risk reductions of 0.12% (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.16, 0.29), 0.28% (95% CI: -0.30, 0.70), and 1.55% (95% CI: 0.40, 2.12), respectively. The ABM with no interactions replicated the findings from g-computation. Introduction of interaction dynamics modestly decreased estimated intervention effects (income-supplement risk reduction dropped to 1.47%), whereas introduction of neighborhood dynamics modestly increased effectiveness (income-supplement risk reduction increased to 1.58%). Compared with g-computation, agent-based modeling permitted deeper exploration of complex systems dynamics at the cost of further assumptions.

Associations between neighborhood disinvestment and breast cancer outcomes within a populous state registry.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BrCa) outcomes vary by social environmental factors, but the role of built-environment factors is understudied. The authors investigated associations between environmental physical disorder-indicators of residential disrepair and disinvestment-and BrCa tumor prognostic factors (stage at diagnosis, tumor grade, triple-negative [negative for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 receptor] BrCa) and survival within a large state cancer registry linkage. METHODS: Data on sociodemographic, tumor, and vital status were derived from adult women who had invasive BrCa diagnosed from 2008 to 2017 ascertained from the New Jersey State Cancer Registry. Physical disorder was assessed through virtual neighborhood audits of 23,276 locations across New Jersey, and a personalized measure for the residential address of each woman with BrCa was estimated using universal kriging. Continuous covariates were z scored (mean ± standard deviation [SD], 0 ± 1) to reduce collinearity. Logistic regression models of tumor factors and accelerated failure time models of survival time to BrCa-specific death were built to investigate associations with physical disorder adjusted for covariates (with follow-up through 2019). RESULTS: There were 3637 BrCa-specific deaths among 40,963 women with a median follow-up of 5.3 years. In adjusted models, a 1-SD increase in physical disorder was associated with higher odds of late-stage BrCa (odds ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.15). Physical disorder was not associated with tumor grade or triple-negative tumors. A 1-SD increase in physical disorder was associated with a 10.5% shorter survival time (95% confidence interval, 6.1%-14.6%) only among women who had early stage BrCa. CONCLUSIONS: Physical disorder is associated with worse tumor prognostic factors and survival among women who have BrCa diagnosed at an early stage.

Differences in Weight Gain Following Residential Relocation in the Moving to Health (M2H) Study.

BACKGROUND: Neighborhoods may play an important role in shaping long-term weight trajectory and obesity risk. Studying the impact of moving to another neighborhood may be the most efficient way to determine the impact of the built environment on health. We explored whether residential moves were associated with changes in body weight. METHODS: Kaiser Permanente Washington electronic health records were used to identify 21,502 members aged 18-64 who moved within King County, WA between 2005 and 2017. We linked body weight measures to environment measures, including population, residential, and street intersection densities (800 m and 1,600 m Euclidian buffers) and access to supermarkets and fast foods (1,600 m and 5,000 m network distances). We used linear mixed models to estimate associations between postmove changes in environment and changes in body weight. RESULTS: In general, moving from high-density to moderate- or low-density neighborhoods was associated with greater weight gain postmove. For example, those moving from high to low residential density neighborhoods (within 1,600 m) gained an average of 4.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.0, 5.9) lbs 3 years after moving, whereas those moving from low to high-density neighborhoods gained an average of 1.3 (95% CI = -0.2, 2.9) lbs. Also, those moving from neighborhoods without fast-food access (within 1600m) to other neighborhoods without fast-food access gained less weight (average 1.6 lbs [95% CI = 0.9, 2.4]) than those moving from and to neighborhoods with fast-food access (average 2.8 lbs [95% CI = 2.5, 3.2]). CONCLUSIONS: Moving to higher-density neighborhoods may be associated with reductions in adult weight gain.

A Clinician's Guide to Conducting Research on Causal Effects.

Surgeons are uniquely poised to conduct research to improve patient care, yet a gap often exists between the clinician's desire to guide patient care with causal evidence and having adequate training necessary to produce causal evidence. This guide aims to address this gap by providing clinically relevant examples to illustrate necessary assumptions required for clinical research to produce causal estimates.

Wage theft and life expectancy inequities in the United States: A simulation study.

Wage theft - employers not paying workers their legally entitled wages and benefits - costs workers billions of dollars annually. We tested whether preventing wage theft could increase U.S. life expectancy and decrease inequities therein. We obtained nationally representative estimates of the 2001-2014 association between income and expected age at death for 40-year-olds (40 plus life expectancy at age 40) compiled from tax and Social Security Administration records, and estimates of the burden of wage theft from several sources, including estimates regarding minimum-wage violations (not paying workers the minimum wage) developed from Current Population Survey data. After modeling the relationship between income and expected age at death, we simulated the effects of scenarios preventing wage theft on mean expected age at death, assuming a causal effect of income on expected age at death. We simulated several scenarios, including one using data suggesting minimum-wage violations constituted 38% of all wage theft and caused 58% of affected workers' losses. Among women in the lowest income decile, mean expected age at death was 0.17 years longer in the counterfactual scenario than observed (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11-0.22), corresponding to 528,685 (95% CI: 346,018-711,353) years extended in the total 2001-2014 age-40 population. Among men in the lowest decile, the estimates were 0.12 (95% CI: 0.07-0.17) and 380,502 (95% CI: 229,630-531,374). Moreover, among women, mean expected age at death in the counterfactual scenario increased 0.16 (95% CI: 0.06-0.27) years more among the lowest decile than among the highest decile; among men, the estimate was 0.12 (95% CI: 0.03-0.21).

Earned Income Tax Credit and Youth Violence: Findings from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System.

Family- and neighborhood-level poverty are associated with youth violence. Economic policies may address this risk factor by reducing parental stress and increasing opportunities. The federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the largest cash transfer program in the US providing support to low-income working families. Many states have additional EITCs that vary in structure and generosity. To estimate the association between state EITC and youth violence, we conducted a repeated cross-sectional analysis using the variation in state EITC generosity over time by state and self-reported data in the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) from 2005 to 2019. We estimated the association for all youth and then stratified by sex and race and ethnicity. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 3.8% lower prevalence of physical fighting among youth, overall (PR: 0.96; 95% CI 0.94-0.99), and for male students, 149 fewer (95% CI: -243, -55) students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting. A 10-percentage point greater state EITC was significantly associated with 118 fewer (95% CI: -184, -52) White students per 10,000 experiencing physical fighting in the past 12 months while reductions among Black students (75 fewer; 95% CI: -176, 26) and Hispanic/Latino students (14 fewer; 95% CI: -93, 65) were not statistically significant. State EITC generosity was not significantly associated with measures of violence at school. Economic policies that increase financial security and provide financial resources may reduce the burden of youth violence; further attention to their differential benefits among specific population subgroups is warranted.

Thirteen Questions About Using Machine Learning in Causal Research (You Won't Believe the Answer to Number 10!).

Machine learning is gaining prominence in the health sciences, where much of its use has focused on data-driven prediction. However, machine learning can also be embedded within causal analyses, potentially reducing biases arising from model misspecification. Using a question-and-answer format, we provide an introduction and orientation for epidemiologists interested in using machine learning but concerned about potential bias or loss of rigor due to use of "black box" models. We conclude with sample software code that may lower the barrier to entry to using these techniques.

Does the Union Make Us Strong? Labor-Union Membership, Self-Rated Health, and Mental Illness: A Parametric G-Formula Approach.

Union members enjoy better wages and benefits and greater power than nonmembers, which can improve health. However, the longitudinal union-health relationship remains uncertain, partially because of healthy-worker bias, which cannot be addressed without high-quality data and methods that account for exposure-confounder feedback and structural nonpositivity. Applying one such method, the parametric g-formula, to US-based Panel Study of Income Dynamics data, we analyzed the longitudinal relationships between union membership, poor/fair self-rated health (SRH), and moderate mental illness (Kessler 6-item score of ≥5). The SRH analyses included 16,719 respondents followed from 1985-2017, while the mental-illness analyses included 5,813 respondents followed from 2001-2017. Using the parametric g-formula, we contrasted cumulative incidence of the outcomes under 2 scenarios, one in which we set all employed-person-years to union-member employed-person-years (union scenario), and one in which we set no employed-person-years to union-member employed-person-years (nonunion scenario). We also examined whether the contrast varied by sex, sex and race, and sex and education. Overall, the union scenario was not associated with reduced incidence of poor/fair SRH (relative risk = 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95, 1.09; risk difference = 0.01, 95% CI: -0.03, 0.04) or moderate mental illness (relative risk = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.92, 1.12; risk difference = 0.01, 95% CI: -0.04, 0.06) relative to the nonunion scenario. These associations largely did not vary by subgroup.

Differential associations of the built environment on weight gain by sex and race/ethnicity but not age.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the built environment (BE) and weight change relationship by age, sex, and racial/ethnic subgroups in adults. METHODS: Weight trajectories were estimated using electronic health records for 115,260 insured Kaiser Permanente Washington members age 18-64 years. Member home addresses were geocoded using ArcGIS. Population, residential, and road intersection densities and counts of area supermarkets and fast food restaurants were measured with SmartMaps (800 and 5000-meter buffers) and categorized into tertiles. Linear mixed-effect models tested whether associations between BE features and weight gain at 1, 3, and 5 years differed by age, sex, and race/ethnicity, adjusting for demographics, baseline weight, and residential property values. RESULTS: Denser urban form and greater availability of supermarkets and fast food restaurants were associated with differential weight change across sex and race/ethnicity. At 5 years, the mean difference in weight change comparing the 3rd versus 1st tertile of residential density was significantly different between males (-0.49 kg, 95% CI: -0.68, -0.30) and females (-0.17 kg, 95% CI: -0.33, -0.01) (P-value for interaction = 0.011). Across race/ethnicity, the mean difference in weight change at 5 years for residential density was significantly different among non-Hispanic (NH) Whites (-0.47 kg, 95% CI: -0.61, -0.32), NH Blacks (-0.86 kg, 95% CI: -1.37, -0.36), Hispanics (0.10 kg, 95% CI: -0.46, 0.65), and NH Asians (0.44 kg, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.78) (P-value for interaction <0.001). These findings were consistent for other BE measures. CONCLUSION: The relationship between the built environment and weight change differs across demographic groups. Careful consideration of demographic differences in associations of BE and weight trajectories is warranted for investigating etiological mechanisms and guiding intervention development.

Does the built environment have independent obesogenic power? Urban form and trajectories of weight gain.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether selected features of the built environment can predict weight gain in a large longitudinal cohort of adults. METHODS: Weight trajectories over a 5-year period were obtained from electronic health records for 115,260 insured patients aged 18-64 years in the Kaiser Permanente Washington health care system. Home addresses were geocoded using ArcGIS. Built environment variables were population, residential unit, and road intersection densities captured using Euclidean-based SmartMaps at 800-m buffers. Counts of area supermarkets and fast food restaurants were obtained using network-based SmartMaps at 1600, and 5000-m buffers. Property values were a measure of socioeconomic status. Linear mixed effects models tested whether built environment variables at baseline were associated with long-term weight gain, adjusting for sex, age, race/ethnicity, Medicaid insurance, body weight, and residential property values. RESULTS: Built environment variables at baseline were associated with differences in baseline obesity prevalence and body mass index but had limited impact on weight trajectories. Mean weight gain for the full cohort was 0.06 kg at 1 year (95% CI: 0.03, 0.10); 0.64 kg at 3 years (95% CI: 0.59, 0.68), and 0.95 kg at 5 years (95% CI: 0.90, 1.00). In adjusted regression models, the top tertile of density metrics and frequency counts were associated with lower weight gain at 5-years follow-up compared to the bottom tertiles, though the mean differences in weight change for each follow-up year (1, 3, and 5) did not exceed 0.5 kg. CONCLUSIONS: Built environment variables that were associated with higher obesity prevalence at baseline had limited independent obesogenic power with respect to weight gain over time. Residential unit density had the strongest negative association with weight gain. Future work on the influence of built environment variables on health should also examine social context, including residential segregation and residential mobility.

Union Burying Ground: Mortality, Mortality Inequities, and Sinking Labor Union Membership in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Over the last several decades in the United States, socioeconomic life-expectancy inequities have increased 1-2 years. Declining labor-union density has fueled growing income inequities across classes and exacerbated racial income inequities. Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, we examined the longitudinal union-mortality relationship and estimated whether declining union density has also exacerbated mortality inequities. METHODS: Our sample included respondents ages 25-66 to the 1979-2015 PSID with mortality follow-up through age 68 and year 2017. To address healthy-worker bias, we used the parametric g-formula. First, we estimated how a scenario setting all (versus none) of respondents' employed-person-years to union-member employed-person-years would have affected mortality incidence. Next, we examined gender, racial, and educational effect modification. Finally, we estimated how racial and educational mortality inequities would have changed if union-membership prevalence had remained at 1979 (vs. 2015) levels throughout follow-up. RESULTS: In the full sample (respondents = 23,022, observations = 146,681), the union scenario was associated with lower mortality incidence than the nonunion scenario (RR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.80, 0.99; RD per 1,000 = -19, 95% CI = -37, -1). This protective association generally held across subgroups, although it was stronger among the more-educated. However, we found little evidence mortality inequities would have lessened if union membership had remained at 1979 levels. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this was the first individual-level US-based study with repeated union-membership measurements to analyze the union-mortality relationship. We estimated a protective union-mortality association, but found little evidence declining union density has exacerbated mortality inequities; importantly, we did not incorporate contextual-level effects. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B839.

At-risk-measure Sampling in Case-Control Studies with Aggregated Data.

Transient exposures are difficult to measure in epidemiologic studies, especially when both the status of being at risk for an outcome and the exposure change over time and space, as when measuring built-environment risk on transportation injury. Contemporary "big data" generated by mobile sensors can improve measurement of transient exposures. Exposure information generated by these devices typically only samples the experience of the target cohort, so a case-control framework may be useful. However, for anonymity, the data may not be available by individual, precluding a case-crossover approach. We present a method called at-risk-measure sampling. Its goal is to estimate the denominator of an incidence rate ratio (exposed to unexposed measure of the at-risk experience) given an aggregated summary of the at-risk measure from a cohort. Rather than sampling individuals or locations, the method samples the measure of the at-risk experience. Specifically, the method as presented samples person-distance and person-events summarized by location. It is illustrated with data from a mobile app used to record bicycling. The method extends an established case-control sampling principle: sample the at-risk experience of a cohort study such that the sampled exposure distribution approximates that of the cohort. It is distinct from density sampling in that the sample remains in the form of the at-risk measure, which may be continuous, such as person-time or person-distance. This aspect may be both logistically and statistically efficient if such a sample is already available, for example from big-data sources like aggregated mobile-sensor data.

The association between three key social determinants of health and life dissatisfaction: A 2017 behavioral risk factor surveillance system analysis.

Poor health outcomes disproportionately impact certain populations in the United States owing to the inequitable distribution of social determinants of health (SDOH). Using the 2017 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), we estimated the association of three adverse SDOH (housing insecurity, food insecurity, and financial instability) with life dissatisfaction. Participants were from Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio, the only states that included the SDOH and Emotional Support and Life Satisfaction modules (n = 25,850). Six percent of respondents reported life dissatisfaction. Those who reported housing insecurity (Prevalence difference (PD) = 14.2 per 100, 95% CI [7.6, 20.7]), food insecurity (PD = 10.9 [7.1, 14.7]), and financial instability (PD = 5.6 [4.9, 6.3]) had higher prevalence of life dissatisfaction. The differences in prevalence of life dissatisfaction, comparing those with and without an adverse SDOH, decreased with increased emotional support (for housing insecurity, food insecurity, and financial instability, respectively: low support, PD = 30.2 [11.6, 48.8], 22.1 [11.6, 32.6], 16.4 [12.0, 20.8]; high support, PD = 4.8 [-2.9, 12.6], 4.8 [0.0, 9.7], 1.7 [1.1, 2.3]). Participants with frequent mental distress (FMD) had greater prevalence differences than those without FMD (for housing insecurity, food insecurity, and financial instability, respectively: with FMD, PD = 15.4 [7.5, 23.3], 10.7 [4.7, 16.7], 14.4 [9.6, 19.3]; without FMD, PD = 6.1 [-0.5, 12.5], 5.3 [1.6, 9.0], 2.5 [2.0, 3.0]). Social determinants may not only influence physical health but also have an impact on psychological well-being. This impact may be altered by levels of emotional support and FMD.

State earned income tax credits and suicidal behavior: A repeated cross-sectional study.

Suicide is an increasingly common cause of death in the United States and recent increases in suicide rates disproportionately impact low income individuals. We sought to assess the impact of income support in the form of state earned income tax credit policies on suicide-related behaviors. This state-level study used repeated cross-sectional data from vital records and the National Survey of Drug Use and Health data representative at the state-level. The population included adults who either died by suicide or were selected for in-person NSDUH interviews between 2008 and 2018. Exposure was measured as the generosity of a refundable state earned income tax credit policy measured as a percentage of the federal policy. Outcomes assessed were suicidal ideation, suicidal planning, non-fatal suicide attempt, suicide deaths, and combined fatal and non-fatal suicide attempts. Analyses were performed between April and June 2020. A 10 percentage-point increase in the generosity of state earned income tax credit was associated with lower frequency of non-fatal suicide attempts (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-0.99), combined fatal and non-fatal suicide attempts (PR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-0.99), and suicide deaths (PR = 0.99; 95% CI: 0.99-1.00). This translates to 4 fewer suicide attempts per 10,000 population each year. Generous state earned income tax credit policies are associated with reductions in the frequency of most severe suicidal behavior. Income support policies may be one way to reduce suicide attempts and death, especially among low-income adults.

Pathways between objective and perceived neighborhood factors among Black breast cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Mounting evidence supports associations between objective neighborhood disorder, perceived neighborhood disorder, and health, yet alternative explanations involving socioeconomic and neighborhood social cohesion have been understudied. We tested pathways between objective and perceived neighborhood disorder, perceived neighborhood social cohesion, and socioeconomic factors within a longitudinal cohort. METHODS: Demographic and socioeconomic information before diagnosis was obtained at interviews conducted approximately 10 months post-diagnosis from participants in the Women's Circle of Health Follow-up Study - a cohort of breast cancer survivors self-identifying as African American or Black women (n = 310). Neighborhood perceptions were obtained during follow-up interviews conducted approximately 24 months after diagnosis. Objective neighborhood disorder was from 9 items audited across 23,276 locations using Google Street View and scored to estimate disorder values at each participant's residential address at diagnosis. Census tract socioeconomic and demographic composition covariates were from the 2010 U.S. Census and American Community Survey. Pathways to perceived neighborhood disorder were built using structural equation modelling. Model fit was assessed from the comparative fit index and root mean square error approximation and associations were reported as standardized coefficients and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Higher perceived neighborhood disorder was associated with higher objective neighborhood disorder (ß = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.33), lower neighborhood social cohesion, and lower individual-level socioeconomic factors (final model root mean square error approximation 0.043 (90% CI: 0.013, 0.068)). Perceived neighborhood social cohesion was associated with individual-level socioeconomic factors and objective neighborhood disorder (ß = - 0.11, 95% CI: - 0.24, 0.02). CONCLUSION: Objective neighborhood disorder might be related to perceived disorder directly and indirectly through perceptions of neighborhood social cohesion.

Development and Validation of a Google Street View Pedestrian Safety Audit Tool.

BACKGROUND: Assessing aspects of intersections that may affect the risk of pedestrian injury is critical to developing child pedestrian injury prevention strategies, but visiting intersections to inspect them is costly and time-consuming. Several research teams have validated the use of Google Street View to conduct virtual neighborhood audits that remove the need for field teams to conduct in-person audits. METHODS: We developed a 38-item virtual audit instrument to assess intersections for pedestrian injury risk and tested it on intersections within 700 m of 26 schools in New York City using the Computer-assisted Neighborhood Visual Assessment System (CANVAS) with Google Street View imagery. RESULTS: Six trained auditors tested this instrument for inter-rater reliability on 111 randomly selected intersections and for test-retest reliability on 264 other intersections. Inter-rater kappa scores ranged from -0.01 to 0.92, with nearly half falling above 0.41, the conventional threshold for moderate agreement. Test-retest kappa scores were slightly higher than but highly correlated with inter-rater scores (Spearman rho = 0.83). Items that were highly reliable included the presence of a pedestrian signal (K = 0.92), presence of an overhead structure such as an elevated train or a highway (K = 0.81), and intersection complexity (K = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Built environment features of intersections relevant to pedestrian safety can be reliably measured using a virtual audit protocol implemented via CANVAS and Google Street View.