Wildfire prediction using zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models: Application to Spain.

Wildfires have changed in recent decades. The catastrophic wildfires make it necessary to have accurate predictive models on a country scale to organize firefighting resources. In Mediterranean countries, the number of wildfires is quite high but they are mainly concentrated around summer months. Because of seasonality, there are territories where the number of fires is zero in some months and is overdispersed in others. Zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models are adapted to this type of data because they can describe patterns that explain both number of fires and their non-occurrence and also provide useful prediction tools. In addition to model-based predictions, a parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating mean squared errors and constructing prediction intervals. The statistical methodology and developed software are applied to model and to predict number of wildfires in Spain between 2002 and 2015 by provinces and months.

Genetic Contribution in Low Back Pain: A Prospective Genetic Association Study.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic pain is one of the most common reasons individuals seek medical attention. It is a major issue because of the wide interindividual variability in the analgesic response. This might be partly explained by the presence of variants in genes encoding molecules involved in pharmacodynamics and pharmacokinetics. The aim was to analyze opioid effectiveness in chronic low back pain (CLBP) relief after opioid titration, unveiling the impact of pharmacogenetics. METHODS: The study included 231 opioid-naïve patients from the Spine Unit; age 63 ± 14 years, 64% female, body mass index 29 ± 6 kg/m2 , visual analog scale pain intensity score 73 ± 16 mm. Clinical data were collected at baseline, 3 months after opioid titration, and after 2 to 4 years of follow-up concerning pain (intensity and relief), quality of life, disability, comorbidities, and drug prescription (opioid dose, rotations, and adverse events). The genotype influence of OPRM1, COMT, UGT2B7, ABCB1, KCNJ6, and CYP3A5*3A in analgesic response was analyzed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction genotyping. RESULTS: Patients with the COMT G472A-AA genotype (rs4680) and KCNJ6 A1032G-A allele (rs2070995) CLBP responded differently to opioid titration, with higher pain intensity requiring higher dosing. Furthermore, GG- genotypes of A118G (OPRM1, rs1799971) and A854G (UGT2B7, rs776746) influenced the neuropathic component. After opioid titration, CLBP intensity, neuropathic component, low back pain disability, anxiety, and depression significantly decreased, while quality of life improved. CONCLUSION: Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in genes involved in pain transmission and opioid metabolism might predispose to exaggerated sensitivity and differences in the opioid analgesic effect in patients with CLBP. We encourage clinical trials for their clinical application in chronic pain management.

Response and survival benefit with chemoimmunotherapy in Epstein-Barr virus-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a haematologic malignancy with poor prognosis when treated with chemotherapy. We evaluated response and survival benefits of chemoimmunotherapy in EBV-positive DLBCL patients. A total of 117 DLBCL patients were included in our retrospective analysis; 33 were EBV-positive (17 treated with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone [R-CHOP] and 16 with CHOP), and 84 were EBV-negative (all treated with R-CHOP). The outcomes of interest were complete response (CR) and overall survival (OS) in EBV-positive DLBCL patients (R-CHOP versus CHOP) and in DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP (EBV-positive vs EBV-negative). There were no differences in the clinical characteristics between EBV-positive and EBV-negative DLBCL patients. Among EBV-positive DLBCL patients, R-CHOP was associated with higher odds of CR (OR 3.14, 95% CI 0.75-13.2; P = .10) and better OS (hazard ratio 0.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.09-0.94; P = .04). There were no differences in CR rate (OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.18-1.56; P = .25) or OS (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.32-2.67; P = .89) between EBV-positive and EBV-negative DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP. Based on our study, the addition of rituximab to CHOP is associated with improved response and survival in EBV-positive DLBCL patients. Epstein-Barr virus status does not seem to affect response or survival in DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP.

Randomized, Controlled, Crossover Study of Self-administered Jacobson Relaxation in Chronic, Nonspecific, Low-back Pain.

CONTEXT: Opioids decrease pain and improve functional capacity and quality of life; however, they are not always effective and are associated with harmful side effects. Few studies have shown that relaxation-based therapies, in comparison with usual care, can decrease pain. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to investigate whether a controlled relaxation treatment, Jacobson progressive muscular relaxation (PMR), was effective in relieving chronic low-back pain (CLBP) and reducing pain comorbidities. The research team hypothesized that PMR-controlled relaxation could be more effective in reducing CLBP than music. DESIGN: The research team designed a randomized, controlled, crossover study. SETTING: The study took place in the pain unit, a clinic, in the Department of Health at Alicante-General Hospital (Alicante, Spain). PARTICIPANTS: Participants in this study were 58 adults with nononcological CLBP, secondary to lumbar canal stenosis, who had been treated with opioids without any changes in the 3 mo prior to the study. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 groups, each of which received 2 treatments, but in a different order (ie, either AB or BA where A was the standardized PMR, the intervention, and B was relaxing music, the control. For both groups, the 2 treatment periods were 8 wk in length, with a 1-mo washout period between them. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measures included (1) a visual analogue scale-pain and relief intensity; (2) the 12-item short form health survey-quality of life; (3) the hospital anxiety and depression scale-anxiety and depression; and (4) the medical outcomes study sleep scale-sleep disturbances. Secondary outcome measures included a self-efficacy scale and a measure of satisfaction with treatment and compliance. RESULTS: Pain was mostly mild to moderate. Greater decreases in pain between baseline and postintervention were observed for the PMR vs the control treatment in the mild pain category, with a VAS difference of 1.8 cm and P = .018. Significant differences were also found in anxiety, depression, quality of life, and sleep between participants in the 3 pain categories. Self-rated adherence was high. CONCLUSIONS: Findings support the efficacy and acceptability of a self-guided PMR intervention for reducing CLBP with minimal time with a therapist.

Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia.

[Primary non-polipoid intestinal folicular lymphoma: case report and review of the literature]. / Linfoma folicular primario intestinal no polipósico: reporte de un caso y revisión de la literatura.

The primary intestinal follicular lymphoma is a rare disease described in the last classification of lymphomas from WHO. It is a localized disease with excellent prognosis. We describe in this article ,a 64 year-old Peruvian female with abdominal pain and delayed vomiting for the last two years, has undergone a partial intestinal resection due to bowel obstruction. There was a well-circumscribed annular tumor. A diagnosis of non-polypoid primary intestinal follicular lymphoma was made. We report the case and review the literature in this article.

Extranodal marginal zone lymphoma from ocular adnexae with subcutaneous involvement.

Extranodal marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue usually originates from cutaneous or mucosal surfaces. A rare site of involvement is the subcutaneous tissue of any location. Here, we describe a 58-year-old man who presented with bilateral extranodal MZL of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue from ocular adnexae that involved subcutaneous tissue and subsequently extended to multiple anatomical locations in the head and neck, upper back, and arm. The neoplastic cells expressed B-cell markers, and the plasma cells expressed IgG4. The unusual pattern of infiltration of this extranodal MZL and the possible significance of IgG4 expression in this case are discussed.

Clinical prediction of opioid use disorder in chronic pain patients: a cohort-retrospective study with a pharmacogenetic approach.

BACKGROUND: Opioids are widely used in chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP) management. However, they remain controversial due to serious risk of causing opioid use disorder (OUD). Our main aim was to develop a predictive model for future clinical translation that include pharmacogenetic markers. METHODS: An observational study was conducted in 806 pre-screened Spanish CNCP patients, under long-term use of opioids, to compare cases (with OUD, N.=137) with controls (without OUD, N.=669). Mu-opioid receptor 1 (OPRM1, A118G, rs1799971) and catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT, G472A, rs4680) genetic variants plus cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6) liver enzyme phenotypes were analyzed. Socio-demographic, clinical and pharmacological outcomes were also registered. A logistic regression model was performed. The model performance and diagnostic accuracy were calculated. RESULTS: OPRM1-AA genotype and CYP2D6 poor and ultrarapid metabolizers together with three other potential predictors: 1) age; 2) work disability; 3) oral morphine equivalent daily dose (MEDD), were selected with a satisfactory diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity: 0.82 and specificity: 0.85), goodness of fit (P=0.87) and discrimination (0.89). Cases were ten-year younger with lower incomes, more sleep disturbances, benzodiazepines use, and history of substance use disorder in front of controls. CONCLUSIONS: Functional polymorphisms related to OPRM1 variant and CYP2D6 phenotypes may predict a higher OUD risk. Established risk factors such as young age, elevated MEDD and lower incomes were identified. A predictive model is expected to be implemented in clinical setting among CNCP patients under long-term opioids use.

Long-term deprescription in chronic pain and opioid use disorder patients: Pharmacogenetic and sex differences.

More than half of patients with opioid use disorder for chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP) reduced their dose through a progressive opioid withdrawal supported by a rotation to buprenorphine and/or tramadol. The aim of this research is to analyse the long-term effectiveness of opioid deprescription taking into account the impact of sex and pharmacogenetics on the inter-individual variability. A cross-sectional study was carried out from October 2019 to June 2020 on CNCP patients who had previously undergone an opioid deprescription (n = 119 patients). Demographic, clinical (pain, relief and adverse events) and therapeutic (analgesic use) outcomes were collected. Effectiveness (< 50 mg per day of morphine equivalent daily dose without any aberrant opioid use behaviour) and safety (number of side-effects) were analysed in relation to sex differences and pharmacogenetic markers impact [OPRM1 genotype (rs1799971) and CYP2D6 phenotypes]. Long-term opioid deprescription was achieved in 49 % of the patients with an increase in pain relief and a reduction of adverse events. CYP2D6 poor metabolizers showed the lowest long-term opioid doses. Here, women showed a higher degree of opioid deprescription, but increased use of tramadol and neuromodulators, as well as an increased number of adverse events. Long-term deprescription was successful in half of the cases. Understanding sex and gender interaction plus a genetic impact could help to design more individualized strategies for opioid deprescription.

Isolated cardiac valve involvement in smoldering adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma.

Adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATLL) is an aggressive mature T-cell neoplasm caused by infection with the Human T-cell Lymphotropic Virus Type 1 (HTLV-1). Cardiac involvement in patients with ATLL is infrequent, and when it happens it is usually seen in aggressive ATLL subtypes. However, ATLL presenting as isolated cardiac valve involvement is extremely rare. To date, only three histologically proven cases of ATLL with isolated cardiac valve involvement have been reported. Herein, we describe a 61-year-old Peruvian man who presented heart failure symptoms secondary to progressive cardiac valve infiltration. The patient underwent mitral valve replacement with a mechanical prosthesis. Histopathological evaluation of the resected valve revealed leaflet thickening with a nodular appearance due to fibrous tissue containing atypical T-lymphocytes with Foxp3 expression, infiltrating all layers of the resected valve. Interestingly, tumor cells were distributed around an incidental venous malformation (i.e., cavernous hemangioma). Postoperative evaluation demonstrated positive serology for HTLV-1, and a diagnosis of ATLL was established. Postoperative positron emission tomography/computed tomography did not show lesions outside the heart and cell blood counts were within normal range with low level of circulating CD4+ CD25+ lymphoma cell counts (7%); therefore, patient's disease was considered as smoldering ATLL and a "watch and wait" strategy was pursued. Currently, the patient is alive with no progression of disease after 18 months from diagnosis. Isolated cardiac valve involvement by ATLL should be considered in the differential diagnosis of HTLV-1 carriers with progressive heart failure, even when systemic lymphoma involvement is absent or not apparent.

On the Use of Aggregate Survey Data for Estimating Regional Major Depressive Disorder Prevalence.

Major depression is a severe mental disorder that is associated with strongly increased mortality. The quantification of its prevalence on regional levels represents an important indicator for public health reporting. In addition to that, it marks a crucial basis for further explorative studies regarding environmental determinants of the condition. However, assessing the distribution of major depression in the population is challenging. The topic is highly sensitive, and national statistical institutions rarely have administrative records on this matter. Published prevalence figures as well as available auxiliary data are typically derived from survey estimates. These are often subject to high uncertainty due to large sampling variances and do not allow for sound regional analysis. We propose a new area-level Poisson mixed model that accounts for measurement errors in auxiliary data to close this gap. We derive the empirical best predictor under the model and present a parametric bootstrap estimator for the mean squared error. A method of moments algorithm for consistent model parameter estimation is developed. Simulation experiments are conducted to show the effectiveness of the approach. The methodology is applied to estimate the major depression prevalence in Germany on regional levels crossed by sex and age groups.

Small area estimation of expenditure means and ratios under a unit-level bivariate linear mixed model.

Under a unit-level bivariate linear mixed model, this paper introduces small area predictors of expenditure means and ratios, and derives approximations and estimators of the corresponding mean squared errors. For the considered model, the REML estimation method is implemented. Several simulation experiments, designed to analyze the behavior of the introduced fitting algorithm, predictors and mean squared error estimators, are carried out. An application to real data from the Spanish household budget survey illustrates the behavior of the proposed statistical methodology. The target is the estimation of means of food and non-food household annual expenditures and of ratios of food household expenditures by Spanish provinces.

Sex-Differences in Pain and Opioid Use Disorder Management: A Cross-Sectional Real-World Study.

(1) Background: It is essential to focus attention on sex-specific factors which are clinically relevant in pain management, especially with regards to opioid use disorder (OUD) risk. The aim of this study was to explore potential sex-differences in chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP) outpatients. (2) Methods: An observational cross-sectional study was conducted under CNCP outpatients with long-term prescribed opioids (n = 806), wherein 137 patients had an OUD diagnosis (cases, 64% females) and 669 did not (controls, 66% females). Socio-demographic, clinical, and pharmacological outcomes were analyzed. (3) Results: Female controls presented an older age and less intensive pain therapy but higher psychotropic prescriptions and emergency department visits compared to male controls. Meanwhile, cases demonstrated a younger age, higher work disability, double morphine equivalent daily dose, and benzodiazepine use compared with controls. Here, female cases showed an 8% greater substance use disorder (OR 2.04 [1.11-3.76]) and 24% lower tramadol use, while male cases presented a 22% higher fentanyl use (OR 2.97 [1.52-5.81]) and reported the highest number of adverse drug reactions (24%, OR 2.40 [1.12-5.16]) compared with controls. (4) Conclusions: An OUD individual risk profile was evidenced with sex-differences to take into consideration to design equal prevention programs.

Oxycodone/naloxone versus tapentadol in real-world chronic non-cancer pain management: an observational and pharmacogenetic study.

Tapentadol (TAP) and oxycodone/naloxone (OXN) potentially offer an improved opioid tolerability. However, real-world studies in chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP) remain scarce. Our aim was to compare effectiveness and security in daily pain practice, together with the influence of pharmacogenetic markers. An observational study was developed with ambulatory test cases under TAP (n = 194) or OXN (n = 175) prescription with controls (prescribed with other opioids (control), n = 216) CNCP patients. Pain intensity and relief, quality of life, morphine equivalent daily doses (MEDD), concomitant analgesic drugs, adverse events (AEs), hospital frequentation and genetic variants of OPRM1 (rs1799971, A118G) and COMT (rs4680, G472A) genes, were analysed. Test CNCP cases evidenced a significantly higher pain relief predictable due to pain intensity and quality of life (R2 = 0.3), in front of controls. Here, OXN achieved the greatest pain relief under a 28% higher MEDD, 8-13% higher use of pregabalin and duloxetine, and 23% more prescription change due to pain, compared to TAP. Whilst, TAP yielded a better tolerability due the lower number of 4 [0-6] AEs/patient, in front of OXN. Furthermore, OXN COMT-AA homozygotes evidenced higher rates of erythema and vomiting, especially in females. CNCP real-world patients achieved higher pain relief than other traditional opioids with a better tolerability for TAP. Further research is necessary to clarify the potential influence of COMT and sex on OXN side-effects.

EBV-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of the elderly: a case series from Peru.

EBV-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) of the elderly is an entity recently included in the WHO classification of lymphoid tumors. We have reviewed our experience and clinical outcomes of this distinct subtype of DLBCL. Between 2002 and 2009, cases of DLBCL were identified from medical records of the Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati Martins in Lima, Peru, and underwent pathological evaluation including immunohistochemistry for CD20, CD10, bcl-6, MUM1/IRF4, and EBV-encoded RNA in situ hybridization. Clinical data were gathered, tabulated, and reported descriptively. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier estimates. Out of 199 cases of DLBCL, 28 cases of EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly were identified. The median age was 75 years with male predominance (1.5:1). B-symptoms were present in 43%, advanced stage in 50% and International Prognostic Index (IPI) score > 2 in 57% of patients; 68% of patients had a nongerminal center (NGC) phenotype. The complete response rates to R-CHOP and CHOP were 63% and 33%, respectively. The median overall survival (OS) for the group was 5 months. In the univariate analysis, age ≥70 years, lymphocyte count <1.0 × 10(9) /L, and advanced clinical stage were associated with worse OS in patients treated with chemotherapy with and without rituximab. EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly is a clinically aggressive entity with a short OS and typically presents with advanced stage, high IPI score, and a NGC phenotype. Further studies are needed to investigate if rituximab-containing regimens are associated with better response and OS rates in EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly.

l2-Penalized temporal logit-mixed models for the estimation of regional obesity prevalence over time.

Obesity is considered to be one of the primary health risks in modern industrialized societies. Estimating the evolution of its prevalence over time is an essential element of public health reporting. This requires the application of suitable statistical methods on epidemiologic data with substantial local detail. Generalized linear-mixed models with medical treatment records as covariates mark a powerful combination for this purpose. However, the task is methodologically challenging. Disease frequencies are subject to both regional and temporal heterogeneity. Medical treatment records often show strong internal correlation due to diagnosis-related grouping. This frequently causes excessive variance in model parameter estimation due to rank-deficiency problems. Further, generalized linear-mixed models are often estimated via approximate inference methods as their likelihood functions do not have closed forms. These problems combined lead to unacceptable uncertainty in prevalence estimates over time. We propose an l2-penalized temporal logit-mixed model to solve these issues. We derive empirical best predictors and present a parametric bootstrap to estimate their mean-squared errors. A novel penalized maximum approximate likelihood algorithm for model parameter estimation is stated. With this new methodology, the regional obesity prevalence in Germany from 2009 to 2012 is estimated. We find that the national prevalence ranges between 15 and 16%, with significant regional clustering in eastern Germany.

[Gastric adult T cell leukemia/lymphoma: report of four cases and review of literature]. / Leucemia/linfoma T del adulto gástrico: reporte de cuatro casos y revisión de la literatura.

Adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATLL) is an aggressive disease associated with human T-cell lymphotropic virus type-I (HTLV-I) with heterogeneous clinical presentation and outcomes. We report four cases with gastric involvement. We describe clinical and endoscopic findings of cases and review literature.

Sex Bias and Genotype Influence on Opioid Safety Profile in Chronic Low Back Pain.

OBJECTIVES: The use of opioids to relieve pain is a challenge because of the high variability in dose requirements and tolerance profiles. Among potential modulators are the individual's genetic background and being female. Our aim was to evaluate sex bias and genotype-related influence on opioid titration safety, in chronic low back pain (CLBP), the most frequent chronic noncancer pain. METHODS: A 3-year prospective study was developed in opioid-naive CLBP patients. Data were self-reported by patients (pain [Visual Analogy Scale], adverse events [AEs], and health care resource utilization) and physicians (analgesic prescription, morphine equivalent daily dose, and suspected adverse drug reactions [ADRs]). Outcomes were analyzed as patients with AEs (case) or without (control) together with patients' sex and genotype. Gene variants in OPRM1 (rs1799971), COMT (rs4680), ABCB1 (rs1045642), UGT2B7 (rs12233719 and rs7438135), KCNJ6 (rs2070995 and rs6517442), and CYP3A5*3 (rs776746) were assessed. The hospital ethics committee approved the study, and statistical analyses were performed with R, v.3.2.4. RESULTS: A total of 179 patients were included (64% female, mean pain intensity 73±16 mm), and 90% of them presented at least 1 AE (median of 3 (1 to 6) AEs/patient) with a rate of 5 AEs: 1 ADR without differences due to sex. However, there is a significant delay in referral of female patients (a mean of 6 years) to the Pain Unit, being significantly 3 to 5 times more likely to present sleep or psychiatric disorders. Meanwhile male individuals showed more sexual and reproductive system disorders. Genotypes influenced skin (COMT, G472A-GG) and gastrointestinal (ABCB1, C3435T-CC) related problems. CONCLUSIONS: Sex bias affects female patients resulting in a CLBP diagnostic delay and a different analgesic safety profile. Moreover, the individual's genetic background might be useful to predict certain AEs in opioid-naive patients under an opioid titration procedure. Addressing sex in necessary to resolve inequalities in health care access.

Alternative methods for sampling and preservation of photosynthetic pigments and tocopherols in plant material from remote locations.

Current methods for the study of pigments involve freezing in liquid nitrogen and storage at -80 degrees C or lyophilization until HPLC analysis. These requirements greatly restrict ecophysiological research in remote areas where such resources are hardly available. We aimed to overcome such limitations by developing several techniques not requiring freezing or lyophilization. Two species with contrasting foliar characteristics (Olea europaea and Taraxacum officinale) were chosen. Seven preservation methods were designed, optimized and tested in a field trial. These protocols were compared with a control immediately frozen after collection. Pigments and tocopherols were analysed by HPLC. Main artefacts were chlorophyll epimerization or phaeophytinization, carotenoid isomerization, altered de-epoxidation index and tocopherol degradation. Among all methods, sample desiccation in silica gel provides robust samples (pigment composition was unaffected by storage time or temperature) and almost unaltered pigment profiles, except for a shift in epoxidation state. Although liquid nitrogen freezing and subsequent lyophilization or freezer storage were preferred, when these facilities are either not available or not suitable for long-distance transport, desiccation with silica gel, passive extraction in acetone and/or storage of fresh samples in water vapour saturated atmospheres enable a complete pigment characterization. Silica gel is advisable for long-term sample conservation.