Comparison of prediction models for cardiovascular and mortality risk in people with type 2 diabetes: An external validation in 23 685 adults included in the UK Biobank.

AIMS: To validate cardiovascular risk prediction models for individuals with diabetes using the UK Biobank in order to assess their applicability. METHODS: We externally validated 19 cardiovascular risk scores from seven risk prediction models (Chang et al., Framingham, University of Hong Kong-Singapore [HKU-SG], Li et al, RECODe [risk equations for complications of type 2 diabetes], SCORE [Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation] and the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 [UKPDS OM2]), identified from systematic reviews, using UK Biobank data from 2006 to 2021 (n = 23 685; participant age 40-71 years, 63.5% male). We evaluated performance by assessing the discrimination and calibration of the models for the endpoints of mortality, cardiovascular mortality, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease. RESULTS: Over a total of 269 430 person-years of follow-up (median 11.89 years), the models showed low-to-moderate discrimination performance on external validation (concordance indices [c-indices] 0.50-0.71). Most models had low calibration with overprediction of the observed risk. RECODe outperformed other models across four comparable endpoints for discrimination: all-cause mortality (c-index 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.69), congestive heart failure (c-index 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.72), myocardial infarction (c-index 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.68); and stroke (c-index 0.65, 95% CI 0.62-0.68), and for calibration (except for all-cause mortality). The UKPDS OM2 had comparable performance to RECODe for all-cause mortality (c-index 0.67, 95% CI 0.66-0.69) and cardiovascular mortality (c-index 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.73), but worse performance for other outcomes. The models performed better for younger participants and somewhat better for non-White ethnicities. Models developed from non-Western datasets showed worse performance in our UK-based validation set. CONCLUSIONS: The RECODe model led to better risk estimations in this predominantly White European population. Further validation is needed in non-Western populations to assess generalizability to other populations.

Evaluation of vaccine allergy safety track program to assess potential COVID-19 vaccine allergy: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Concerns about new COVID-19 vaccines played a key role in vaccine hesitancy and hampered population uptake. Hong Kong initiated a Vaccine Allergy Safety Track (VAS-Track) program to assess potential COVID-19 vaccine-associated allergies. A 'Hub-and-Spoke' model of predominately non-specialists supported by the allergist hub was established to meet overwhelming demand despite limited specialists. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of VAS-Track as a pre- and post-vaccination assessment service for individuals potentially at high risk of COVID-19 vaccine-related allergy. METHODS: An individual-level decision-analytical model was constructed using data from VAS-Track participants supplemented by published estimates. Analyses were from a health service provider perspective over 12 months. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to estimate the cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Willingness-to-pay threshold was based on local GDP per capita (US$ 49,590). Sensitivity analyses examined robustness of findings. RESULTS: Cost-effectiveness varied widely across age groups. VAS-Track was cost-saving for older adults (dominant strategy for age ≥ 50) compared with standard practice across a range of sensitivity analyses. VAS-Track was not cost-effective for younger groups (age 18-49: ICER: US$ 410,914/QALY for pre-vaccination and US$ 213,786/QALY for post-vaccination assessments). Infection rate, cost of treating severe infection, and vaccination rate were most influential on cost-effectiveness estimates. CONCLUSION: VAS-Track was cost-effective both as a pre- and post-vaccination assessment service for adults over 50. The 'Hub-and-Spoke' model using non-specialists with limited allergy specialist resources to provide vaccine allergy assessment services would provide high economic value compared with usual care for adults aged 50 and over.

Estimating the US Baseline Distribution of Health Inequalities Across Race, Ethnicity, and Geography for Equity-Informative Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Information on how life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy varies across equity-relevant subgroups is required to conduct distributional cost-effectiveness analysis. These summary measures are not comprehensively available in the United States, given limitations in nationally representative data across racial and ethnic groups. METHODS: Through linkage of US national survey data sets and use of Bayesian models to address missing and suppressed mortality data, we estimate health outcomes across 5 racial and ethnic subgroups (non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Hispanic). Mortality, disability, and social determinant of health data were combined to estimate sex- and age-based outcomes for equity-relevant subgroups based on race and ethnicity, as well as county-level social vulnerability. RESULTS: Life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy at birth declined from 79.5, 69.4, and 64.3 years, respectively, among the 20% least socially vulnerable (best-off) counties to 76.8, 63.6, and 61.1 years, respectively, among the 20% most socially vulnerable (worst-off) counties. Considering differences across racial and ethnic subgroups, as well as geography, gaps between the best-off (Asian and Pacific Islander; 20% least socially vulnerable counties) and worst-off (American Indian/Alaska Native; 20% most socially vulnerable counties) subgroups were large (17.6 life-years, 20.9 disability-free life-years, and 18.0 quality-adjusted life-years) and increased with age. CONCLUSIONS: Existing disparities in health across geographies and racial and ethnic subgroups may lead to distributional differences in the impact of health interventions. Data from this study support routine estimation of equity effects in healthcare decision making, including distributional cost-effectiveness analysis.

The Impact of Funding Inpatient Treatments for COVID-19 on Health Equity in the United States: A Distributional Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) to evaluate how Medicare funding of inpatient COVID-19 treatments affected health equity in the United States. METHODS: A DCEA, based on an existing cost-effectiveness analysis model, was conducted from the perspective of a single US payer, Medicare. The US population was divided based on race and ethnicity (Hispanic, non-Hispanic black, and non-Hispanic white) and county-level social vulnerability index (5 quintile groups) into 15 equity-relevant subgroups. The baseline distribution of quality-adjusted life expectancy was estimated across the equity subgroups. Opportunity costs were estimated by converting total spend on COVID-19 inpatient treatments into health losses, expressed as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), using base-case assumptions of an opportunity cost threshold of $150 000 per QALY gained and an equal distribution of opportunity costs across equity-relevant subgroups. RESULTS: More socially vulnerable populations received larger per capita health benefits due to higher COVID-19 incidence and baseline in-hospital mortality. The total direct medical cost of inpatient COVID-19 interventions in the United States in 2020 was estimated at $25.83 billion with an estimated net benefit of 735 569 QALYs after adjusting for opportunity costs. Funding inpatient COVID-19 treatment reduced the population-level burden of health inequality by 0.234%. Conclusions remained robust across scenario and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first DCEA to quantify the equity implications of funding COVID-19 treatments in the United States. Medicare funding of COVID-19 treatments in the United States could improve overall health while reducing existing health inequalities.

COVID-19 Vaccine Allergy Safety Track (VAS-Track) pathway: real-world outcomes on vaccination rates and antibody protection.

BACKGROUND: Misdiagnosed vaccine-related "allergies" lead to unnecessary vaccine deferrals and incomplete vaccinations, leaving patients unprotected against COVID-19. To overcome limitations and queues for Allergist assessment, the "VAS-Track" pathway was developed to evaluate patients via a multi-disciplinary triage model including nurses, non-specialists, and Allergists. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effectiveness and safety of VAS-Track and evaluate its real-world impact in terms of vaccination rates and COVID-19 protection. METHODS: Patients referred to VAS-Track between September 2021 and March 2022 were recruited. Subgroup analysis was performed with prospective pre- and post-clinic antibody levels. RESULTS: Nurse-assisted screening identified 10,412 (76%) referrals as inappropriate. 369 patients were assessed by VAS-Track. Overall, 100% of patients were recommended to complete vaccination and 332 (90%) completed their primary series. No patients reported any significant allergic reactions following subsequent vaccination. Vaccination completion rates between patients seen by non-specialists and additional Allergist review were similar (90% vs. 89%, p = 0.617). Vaccination rates were higher among patients with prior history of immediate-type reactions (odds ratio: 2.43, p = 0.025). Subgroup analysis revealed that only 20% (56/284) of patients had seropositive COVID-19 neutralizing antibody levels (≥ 15 AU/mL) prior to VAS-Track, which increased to 92% after vaccine completion (pre-clinic antibody level 6.0 ± 13.5 AU/mL vs. post-clinic antibody level 778.8 ± 337.4 AU/mL, p > 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A multi-disciplinary allergy team was able to streamline our COVID-19 VAS services, enabling almost all patients to complete their primary series, significantly boosting antibody levels and real-world COVID-19 protection. We propose similar multidisciplinary models to be further utilized, especially in the settings with limited allergy services.

The Role of the Allergist in Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Allergy Safety: A Pilot Study on a "Hub-and-Spoke" Model for Population-Wide Allergy Service.

BACKGROUND: Hong Kong started its coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination program in February 2021. A territory-wide Vaccine Allergy Safety (VAS) clinic was set up to assess individuals deemed at "higher risk" of COVID-19 vaccine-associated allergies. A novel "hub-and-spoke" model was piloted to tackle the overwhelming demand of services by allowing nonallergists to conduct assessment. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the outcomes of the VAS hub-and-spoke model for allergy assessment. METHODS: Records of patients attending the VAS hub-and-spoke Clinics between March and August 2021 were reviewed (n = 2725). We studied the overall results between the Hub (allergist led) and Spoke (nonallergist led) Clinics. The Hub and the Hong Kong West Cluster Spoke Clinic were selected for subgroup analysis as they saw the largest number of patients (n = 1411). RESULTS: A total of 2725 patients were assessed under the VAS hub-and-spoke model. Overall, 2324 patients (85.3%) were recommended to proceed with vaccination. Allergists recommended significantly more patients for vaccination than nonallergists (odds ratio = 21.58; P < .001). Subgroup analysis revealed that 881 of 1055 (83.5%) patients received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccination safely after assessment. Among those recommended vaccination, more patients assessed by allergists received their first dose of vaccination (odds ratio = 4.18; P < .001). CONCLUSION: The hub-and-spoke model has proven to be successful for the vaccination campaign. This study has illustrated the crucial role of allergists in countering vaccine hesitancy. Results from the study revealed considerable differences in outcomes between allergist-led and nonallergist-led clinics. Precise reasons for these differences warrant further evaluation. We are hopeful that the hub-and-spoke model can be similarly adapted for other allergist-integrative services in the future.

Development and validation of the CHIME simulation model to assess lifetime health outcomes of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in Chinese populations: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Existing predictive outcomes models for type 2 diabetes developed and validated in historical European populations may not be applicable for East Asian populations due to differences in the epidemiology and complications. Despite the continuum of risk across the spectrum of risk factor values, existing models are typically limited to diabetes alone and ignore the progression from prediabetes to diabetes. The objective of this study is to develop and externally validate a patient-level simulation model for prediabetes and type 2 diabetes in the East Asian population for predicting lifetime health outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a health outcomes model from a population-based cohort of individuals with prediabetes or type 2 diabetes: Hong Kong Clinical Management System (CMS, 97,628 participants) from 2006 to 2017. The Chinese Hong Kong Integrated Modeling and Evaluation (CHIME) simulation model comprises of 13 risk equations to predict mortality, micro- and macrovascular complications, and development of diabetes. Risk equations were derived using parametric proportional hazard models. External validation of the CHIME model was assessed in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, 4,567 participants) from 2011 to 2018 for mortality, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, renal failure, cataract, and development of diabetes; and against 80 observed endpoints from 9 published trials using 100,000 simulated individuals per trial. The CHIME model was compared to United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS-OM2) and Risk Equations for Complications Of type 2 Diabetes (RECODe) by assessing model discrimination (C-statistics), calibration slope/intercept, root mean square percentage error (RMSPE), and R2. CHIME risk equations had C-statistics for discrimination from 0.636 to 0.813 internally and 0.702 to 0.770 externally for diabetes participants. Calibration slopes between deciles of expected and observed risk in CMS ranged from 0.680 to 1.333 for mortality, myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, retinopathy, neuropathy, ulcer of the skin, cataract, renal failure, and heart failure; 0.591 for peripheral vascular disease; 1.599 for cerebrovascular disease; and 2.247 for amputation; and in CHARLS outcomes from 0.709 to 1.035. CHIME had better discrimination and calibration than UKPDS-OM2 in CMS (C-statistics 0.548 to 0.772, slopes 0.130 to 3.846) and CHARLS (C-statistics 0.514 to 0.750, slopes -0.589 to 11.411); and small improvements in discrimination and better calibration than RECODe in CMS (C-statistics 0.615 to 0.793, slopes 0.138 to 1.514). Predictive error was smaller for CHIME in CMS (RSMPE 3.53% versus 10.82% for UKPDS-OM2 and 11.16% for RECODe) and CHARLS (RSMPE 4.49% versus 14.80% for UKPDS-OM2). Calibration performance of CHIME was generally better for trials with Asian participants (RMSPE 0.48% to 3.66%) than for non-Asian trials (RMPSE 0.81% to 8.50%). Main limitations include the limited number of outcomes recorded in the CHARLS cohort, and the generalizability of simulated cohorts derived from trial participants. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that the CHIME model is a new validated tool for predicting progression of diabetes and its outcomes, particularly among Chinese and East Asian populations that has been lacking thus far. The CHIME model can be used by health service planners and policy makers to develop population-level strategies, for example, setting HbA1c and lipid targets, to optimize health outcomes.

Liver complications of haemoglobin H disease in adults.

Haemoglobin H (HbH) disease is a type of non-transfusion-dependent thalassaemia. This cross-sectional study aimed at determining the prevalence and severity of liver iron overload and liver fibrosis in patients with HbH disease. Risk factors for advanced liver fibrosis were also identified. A total of 80 patients were evaluated [median (range) age 53 (24-79) years, male 34%, non-deletional HbH disease 24%]. Patients underwent 'observed' T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging examination for liver iron concentration (LIC) quantification, and transient elastography for liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and fibrosis staging. In all, 25 patients (31%) had moderate-to-severe liver iron overload (LIC ≥7 mg/g dry weight). The median LIC was higher in non-deletional than in deletional HbH disease (7·8 vs. 2.9 mg/g dry weight, P = 0·002). In all, 16 patients (20%) had advanced liver fibrosis (LSM >7.9 kPa) and seven (9%) out of them had probable cirrhosis (LSM >11.9 kPa). LSM positively correlated with age (R = 0·24, P = 0·03), serum ferritin (R = 0·36, P = 0·001) and LIC (R = 0·28, P = 0·01). In multivariable regression, age ≥65 years [odds ratio (OR) 4·97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·52-17·50; P = 0·047] and moderate-to-severe liver iron overload (OR 3·47, 95% CI 1·01-12·14; P = 0·01) were independently associated with advanced liver fibrosis. The findings suggest that regular screening for liver complications should be considered in the management of HbH disease.

Health State Utility Values for Type 2 Diabetes and Related Complications in East and Southeast Asia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: East and Southeast Asia has the greatest burden of diabetes in the world. We sought to derive a reference set of utility values for type 2 diabetes without complication and disutility (utility decrement) values for important diabetes-related complications to better inform economic evaluation. METHODS: A systematic review to identify utility values for diabetes and related complications reported in East and Southeast Asia. We searched MEDLINE (OVID) from inception to May 26, 2020 for utility values elicited using direct and indirect methods. Identified studies were assessed for quality based on the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidelines. Utility and disutility estimates were pooled by meta-analyses with subgroup analyses to evaluate differences by nationality and valuation instrument. (PROSPERO: CRD42020191075). RESULTS: We identified 17 studies for the systematic review from a total of 13 035 studies in the initial search, of which 13 studies met the quality criteria for inclusion in the meta-analyses. The pooled utility value for diabetes without complication was 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.93), with the pooled utility decrement for associated complications ranged from 0.00 (for excess BMI) to 0.18 (for amputation). The utility values were consistently more conservative than previous estimates derived in Western populations. Utility decrements were comparable for SF-6D and EQ-5D valuation instruments and for Chinese and other Asian groups. CONCLUSIONS: A reference set of pooled disutility and utility values for type 2 diabetes and its complications in East and Southeast Asian populations yielded more conservative estimates than Western populations.

Stratification of BMI categories among older adults within and across countries.

OBJECTIVE: Within- and across-country nutritional disparities were examined among older adults in six different countries at varying levels of development. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Older adults (aged 50 years or over) in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia and South Africa using the Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE). RESULTS: While the distribution of BMI categories varied by country, development-related characteristics were generally related to BMI category in a similar way: urban-living, educated and wealthier individuals were typically more likely to be in a higher BMI category. However, there were some exceptions that corroborate findings in more developed countries. Indeed, a pooled partial proportional odds model which included gross domestic product per capita interactions made the case for intertwining processes of development and the nutrition transition. CONCLUSIONS: Population segments to be targeted by nutrition policy and programme implementation might need to change over the course of development.

Anaphylaxis after vaccination reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: Anaphylaxis, a rare and potentially life-threatening hypersensitivity reaction, can occur after vaccination. OBJECTIVE: We sought to describe reports of anaphylaxis after vaccination made to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) during 1990-2016. METHODS: We identified domestic reports of anaphylaxis within VAERS using a combination of Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activity queries and Preferred Terms. We performed a descriptive analysis, including history of hypersensitivity (anaphylaxis, respiratory allergies, and drug allergies) and vaccines given. We reviewed all serious reports and all nonserious reports with available medical records to determine if they met the Brighton Collaboration case definition for anaphylaxis or received a physician's diagnosis. RESULTS: During the analytic period, VAERS received 467,960 total reports; 828 met the Brighton Collaboration case definition or received a physician's diagnosis of anaphylaxis: 654 (79%) were classified as serious, and 669 (81%) had medical records available. Of 478 reports in children aged less than 19 years, 65% were male; childhood vaccines were most commonly reported. Of 350 reports in persons aged 19 years or greater, 80% were female, and influenza vaccines were most frequently reported. Overall, 41% of reports described persons with no history of hypersensitivity. We identified 8 deaths, 4 among persons with no history of hypersensitivity. CONCLUSION: Anaphylaxis after vaccination is rare in the United States and can occur among persons with no history of hypersensitivity. Most persons recover fully with treatment, but serious complications, including death, can occur.

Postlicensure Safety Surveillance of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (Shingrix) - United States, October 2017-June 2018.

Recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV; Shingrix), an adjuvanted glycoprotein vaccine, was licensed by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices for adults aged ≥50 years in October 2017 (1). The previously licensed live-attenuated zoster vaccine (ZVL; Zostavax) is recommended for adults aged ≥60 years. RZV is administered intramuscularly as a 2-dose series, with an interval of 2-6 months between doses. In prelicensure clinical trials, 85% of 6,773 vaccinated study participants reported local or systemic reactions after receiving RZV, with approximately 17% experiencing a grade 3 reaction (erythema or induration >3.5 inches or systemic symptoms that interfere with normal activity). However, rates of serious adverse events (i.e., hospitalization, prolongation of existing hospitalization, life-threatening illness, permanent disability, congenital anomaly or birth defect, or death) were similar in the RZV and placebo groups (2). After licensure, CDC and FDA began safety monitoring of RZV in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) (3). During the first 8 months of use, when approximately 3.2 million RZV doses were distributed (GlaxoSmithKline, personal communication, 2018), VAERS received a total of 4,381 reports of adverse events, 130 (3.0%) of which were classified as serious. Commonly reported signs and symptoms included pyrexia (fever) (1,034; 23.6%), injection site pain (985; 22.5%), and injection site erythema (880; 20.1%). No unexpected patterns were detected in reports of adverse events or serious adverse events. Findings from early monitoring of RZV are consistent with the safety profile observed in prelicensure clinical trials.

Effect of EMG-biofeedback robotic-assisted body weight supported treadmill training on walking ability and cardiopulmonary function on people with subacute spinal cord injuries - a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Body weight supported treadmill training (BWSTT) is a frequently used approach for restoring the ability to walk after spinal cord injury (SCI). However, the duration of BWSTT is usually limited by fatigue of the therapists and patients. Robotic-assisted body weight supported treadmill training (RABWSTT) was developed to tackle the aforesaid limitation. Currently, limited randomized controlled trials are available to investigate its effectiveness, especially on cardiopulmonary function. The aim of this two-arm, parallel-group randomized controlled trial is to examine the feasibility of adapting an EMG-biofeedback system for assist-as-needed RABWSTT and its effects on walking and cardiopulmonary function in people with SCI. METHODS: Sixteen incomplete SCI subjects were recruited and randomly allocated into an intervention group or control group. The intervention group received 30 min of RABWSTT with EMG biofeedback system over the vastus lateralis muscle to enhance active participation. Dose equivalent passive lower limbs mobilization exercise was provided to subjects in the control group. RESULTS: Significant time-group interaction was found in the Walking Index for Spinal Cord Injury version II (WISCI II) (p = 0.020), Spinal Cord Independence Measure version III (SCIM III) mobility sub-score (p < 0.001), bilateral symmetry (p = 0.048), maximal oxygen consumption (p = 0.014) and peak expiratory flow rate (p = 0.048). Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed that the intervention group had significant improvement in the above-mentioned outcomes after the intervention except WISCI II, which also yielded marginal significance level. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrated that the use of EMG-biofeedback RABWSTT enhanced the walking performance for SCI subjects and improve cardiopulmonary function. Positive outcomes reflect that RABSTT training may be able to enhance their physical fitness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study protocol was approved by the Research Ethics Committee (Kowloon Central/ Kowloon East), Hospital Authority on 6 December 2013, and the Human Subjects Ethics Sub-committee of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University on 15 May 2013, with reference numbers KC/KC-13-0181/ER-2 and HSEARS20130510002 respectively. The study was registered in ClinicalTrials.gov on 20 November 2013, with reference number NCT01989806 .).

Association of genetic and behavioral characteristics with the onset of diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Prior work has established sociodemographic, lifestyle, and behavioral risk factors for diabetes but the contribution of these factors to the onset of diabetes remains unclear when accounting for genetic propensity for diabetes. We examined the contribution of a diabetes polygenic score (PGS) to the onset of diabetes in the context of modifiable known risk factors for diabetes. METHODS: Our sample consisted of 15,190 respondents in the United States-based Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal study with up to 22 years of follow-up. We performed multivariate Cox regression models stratified by race (non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black) with time-varying covariates. RESULTS: We observed 4217 (27.76%) cases of incident diabetes over the survey period. The diabetes PGS was statistically significantly associated with diabetes onset for both non-Hispanic whites (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.30, 1.46) and non-Hispanic blacks (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.06, 1.40) after adjusting for a range of known risk factors for diabetes, highlighting the critical role genetic endowment might play. Nevertheless, genetics do not downplay the role that modifiable characteristics could still play in diabetes management; even with the inclusion of the diabetes PGS, several behavioral and lifestyle characteristics remained significant for both race groups. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of genetic and lifestyle characteristics should be taken into consideration for both future studies and diabetes management.

FROM BIRTH TO ADULTHOOD: ANTHROPOMETRIC TRAJECTORIES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRONIC DISEASES IN GUATEMALA.

The objective of this paper was to study nutritional status and growth, as measured by height and weight, over the life course and their connection with chronic diseases in Guatemala, a country with high levels of child undernutrition and adult overnutrition, using data from the Institute of Nutrition of Central America and Panama (INCAP) Nutrition Trial Cohort study. The study sample comprised a birth cohort of 1570 individuals who had data in the original 1969-1977 survey as well as the 2002-2004 follow-up, allowing for an analysis of the nutritional transition from childhood to adulthood. The associations between childhood and adulthood anthropometrics were analysed, and the links of these with chronic disease indicators were assessed using multiple regression analysis and structural equation modelling. Moving upwards in nutritional status from childhood to adulthood was observed frequently in the study population. Unlike sex and place of residence, early anthropometrics were not generally found to be associated with adult body mass index (BMI). However, direct relationships were found between childhood nutritional status and growth and adulthood high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting blood glucose. Furthermore, these relationships were not mediated by BMI. The findings were not sensitive to the metric of childhood anthropometrics, as the use of length-for-age, weight-for-age and weight-for-length all resulted in similar conclusions. These relationships demonstrate the importance of early childhood conditions for later-life outcomes. However, the lack of such relationships for blood pressure suggests that the biological links between childhood anthropometrics and various chronic diseases might vary.

Comparative safety and effectiveness of serotonin receptor antagonists in patients undergoing chemotherapy: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although serotonin (5-HT3) receptor antagonists are effective in reducing nausea and vomiting, they may be associated with increased cardiac risk. Our objective was to examine the comparative safety and effectiveness of 5-HT3 receptor antagonists (e.g., dolasetron, granisetron, ondansetron, palonosetron, tropisetron) alone or combined with steroids for patients undergoing chemotherapy. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception until December 2015 for studies comparing 5-HT3 receptor antagonists with each other or placebo in chemotherapy patients. The search results were screened, data were abstracted, and risk of bias was appraised by pairs of reviewers, independently. Random-effects meta-analyses and network meta-analyses (NMAs) were conducted. RESULTS: After screening 9226 citations and 970 full-text articles, we included 299 studies (n = 58,412 patients). None of the included studies reported harms for active treatment versus placebo. For NMAs on the risk of arrhythmia (primary outcome; three randomized controlled trials [RCTs], 627 adults) and mortality (secondary outcome; eight RCTs, 4823 adults), no statistically significant differences were observed between agents. A NMA on the risk of QTc prolongation showed a significantly greater risk for dolasetron + dexamethasone versus ondansetron + dexamethasone (four RCTs, 3358 children and adults, odds ratio 2.94, 95% confidence interval 2.13-4.17). For NMAs on the number of patients without nausea (44 RCTs, 11,664 adults, 12 treatments), number of patients without vomiting (63 RCTs, 15,460 adults, 12 treatments), and number of patients without chemotherapy-induced nausea or vomiting (27 RCTs, 10,924 adults, nine treatments), all agents were significantly superior to placebo. For a NMA on severe vomiting (10 RCTs, 917 adults), all treatments decreased the risk, but only ondansetron and ramosetron were significantly superior to placebo. According to a rank-heat plot with the surface under the cumulative ranking curve results, palonosetron + steroid was ranked the safest and most effective agent overall. CONCLUSIONS: Most 5-HT3 receptor antagonists were relatively safe when compared with each other, yet none of the studies compared active treatment with placebo for harms. However, dolasetron + dexamethasone may prolong the QTc compared to ondansetron + dexamethasone. All agents were effective for reducing risk of nausea, vomiting, and chemotherapy-induced nausea or vomiting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered at PROSPERO: ( CRD42013003564 ).

A scoping review on the conduct and reporting of scoping reviews.

BACKGROUND: Scoping reviews are used to identify knowledge gaps, set research agendas, and identify implications for decision-making. The conduct and reporting of scoping reviews is inconsistent in the literature. We conducted a scoping review to identify: papers that utilized and/or described scoping review methods; guidelines for reporting scoping reviews; and studies that assessed the quality of reporting of scoping reviews. METHODS: We searched nine electronic databases for published and unpublished literature scoping review papers, scoping review methodology, and reporting guidance for scoping reviews. Two independent reviewers screened citations for inclusion. Data abstraction was performed by one reviewer and verified by a second reviewer. Quantitative (e.g. frequencies of methods) and qualitative (i.e. content analysis of the methods) syntheses were conducted. RESULTS: After searching 1525 citations and 874 full-text papers, 516 articles were included, of which 494 were scoping reviews. The 494 scoping reviews were disseminated between 1999 and 2014, with 45% published after 2012. Most of the scoping reviews were conducted in North America (53%) or Europe (38%), and reported a public source of funding (64%). The number of studies included in the scoping reviews ranged from 1 to 2600 (mean of 118). Using the Joanna Briggs Institute methodology guidance for scoping reviews, only 13% of the scoping reviews reported the use of a protocol, 36% used two reviewers for selecting citations for inclusion, 29% used two reviewers for full-text screening, 30% used two reviewers for data charting, and 43% used a pre-defined charting form. In most cases, the results of the scoping review were used to identify evidence gaps (85%), provide recommendations for future research (84%), or identify strengths and limitations (69%). We did not identify any guidelines for reporting scoping reviews or studies that assessed the quality of scoping review reporting. CONCLUSION: The number of scoping reviews conducted per year has steadily increased since 2012. Scoping reviews are used to inform research agendas and identify implications for policy or practice. As such, improvements in reporting and conduct are imperative. Further research on scoping review methodology is warranted, and in particular, there is need for a guideline to standardize reporting.

Comparative efficacy of serotonin (5-HT3) receptor antagonists in patients undergoing surgery: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Serotonin (5-HT3) receptor antagonists are commonly used to decrease nausea and vomiting for surgery patients. We conducted a systematic review on the comparative efficacy of 5-HT3 receptor antagonists. METHODS: Searches were done in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to identify studies comparing 5-HT3 receptor antagonists with each other, placebo, and/or combined with other antiemetic agents for patients undergoing surgical procedures. Screening search results, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment were conducted by two reviewers independently. Random-effects pairwise meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted. PROSPERO registry number: CRD42013003564. RESULTS: Overall, 450 studies and 80,410 patients were included after the screening of 7,608 citations and 1,014 full-text articles. Significantly fewer patients experienced nausea with any drug relative to placebo, except for ondansetron plus metoclopramide in a NMA including 195 RCTs and 24,230 patients. Significantly fewer patients experienced vomiting with any drug relative to placebo except for palonosetron plus dexamethasone in NMA including 238 RCTs and 12,781 patients. All agents resulted in significantly fewer patients with postoperative nausea and vomiting versus placebo in a NMA including 125 RCTs and 16,667 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Granisetron plus dexamethasone was often the most effective antiemetic, with the number needed to treat ranging from two to nine.

Comparative safety of serotonin (5-HT3) receptor antagonists in patients undergoing surgery: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Serotonin (5-HT3) receptor antagonists are commonly used to decrease nausea and vomiting for surgery patients, but these agents may be harmful. We conducted a systematic review on the comparative safety of 5-HT3 receptor antagonists. METHODS: Searches were done in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to identify studies comparing 5-HT3 receptor antagonists with each other, placebo, and/or other antiemetic agents for patients undergoing surgical procedures. Screening search results, data abstraction, and risk of bias assessment were conducted by two reviewers independently. Random-effects pairwise meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted. PROSPERO registry number: CRD42013003564. RESULTS: Overall, 120 studies and 27,787 patients were included after screening of 7,608 citations and 1,014 full-text articles. Significantly more patients receiving granisetron plus dexamethasone experienced an arrhythmia relative to placebo (odds ratio (OR) 2.96, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.11-7.94), ondansetron (OR 3.23, 95 % CI 1.17-8.95), dolasetron (OR 4.37, 95 % CI 1.51-12.62), tropisetron (OR 3.27, 95 % CI 1.02-10.43), and ondansetron plus dexamethasone (OR 5.75, 95 % CI 1.71-19.34) in a NMA including 31 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and 6,623 patients of all ages. No statistically significant differences in delirium frequency were observed across all treatment comparisons in a NMA including 18 RCTs and 3,652 patients. CONCLUSION: Granisetron plus dexamethasone increases the risk of arrhythmia.