The ecology of human-carnivore coexistence.

With a shrinking supply of wilderness and growing recognition that top predators can have a profound influence on ecosystems, the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes has emerged as one of the greatest conservation challenges of our time. Carnivores fascinate society, yet these animals pose threats to people living near them, resulting in high rates of carnivore death near human settlements. We used 41 y of demographic data for more than 2,500 brown bears-one of the world's most widely distributed and conflict-prone carnivores-to understand the behavioral and demographic mechanisms promoting carnivore coexistence in human-dominated landscapes. Bear mortality was high and unsustainable near people, but a human-induced shift to nocturnality facilitated lower risks of bear mortality and rates of conflict with people. Despite these behavioral shifts, projected population growth rates for bears in human-dominated areas revealed a source-sink dynamic. Despite some female bears successfully reproducing in the sink areas, bear persistence was reliant on a supply of immigrants from areas with minimal human influence (i.e., wilderness). Such mechanisms of coexistence reveal a striking paradox: Connectivity to wilderness areas supplies bears that likely will die from people, but these bears are essential to avert local extirpation. These insights suggest carnivores contribute to human-carnivore coexistence through behavioral and demographic mechanisms, and that connected wilderness is critical to sustain coexistence landscapes.

Gene flow and climate-associated genetic variation in a vagile habitat specialist.

Previous work in landscape genetics suggests that geographic isolation is of greater importance to genetic divergence than variation in environmental conditions. This is intuitive when configurations of suitable habitat are a dominant factor limiting dispersal and gene flow, but has not been thoroughly examined for habitat specialists with strong dispersal capability. Here, we evaluate the effects of geographic and environmental isolation on genetic divergence for a vagile invertebrate with high habitat specificity and a discrete dispersal life stage: Dod's Old World swallowtail butterfly, Papilio machaon dodi. In Canada, P. m. dodi are generally restricted to eroding habitat along major river valleys where their larval host plant occurs. A series of causal and linear mixed effects models indicate that divergence of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms is best explained by a combination of environmental isolation (variation in summer temperatures) and geographic isolation (Euclidean distance). Interestingly, least-cost path and circuit distances through a resistance surface parameterized as the inverse of habitat suitability were not supported. This suggests that, although habitat associations of many butterflies are specific due to reproductive requirements, habitat suitability and landscape permeability are not equivalent concepts due to considerable adult vagility. We infer that divergent selection related to variation in summer temperatures has produced two genetic clusters within P. m. dodi, differing in voltinism and diapause propensity. Within the next century, temperatures are predicted to rise by amounts greater than the present-day difference between regions of the genetic clusters, potentially affecting the persistence of the northern cluster under continued climate change.

Examining forest resilience to changing fire frequency in a fire-prone region of boreal forest.

Future changes in climate are widely anticipated to increase fire frequency, particularly in boreal forests where extreme warming is expected to occur. Feedbacks between vegetation and fire may modify the direct effects of warming on fire activity and shape ecological responses to changing fire frequency. We investigate these interactions using extensive field data from the Boreal Shield of Saskatchewan, Canada, a region where >40% of the forest has burned in the past 30 years. We use geospatial and field data to assess the resistance and resilience of eight common vegetation states to frequent fire by quantifying the occurrence of short-interval fires and their effect on recovery to a similar vegetation state. These empirical relationships are combined with data from published literature to parameterize a spatially explicit, state-and-transition simulation model of fire and forest succession. We use this model to ask if and how: (a) feedbacks between vegetation and wildfire may modify fire activity on the landscape, and (b) more frequent fire may affect landscape forest composition and age structure. Both field and GIS data suggest the probability of fire is low in the initial decades after fire, supporting the hypothesis that fuel accumulation may exert a negative feedback on fire frequency. Field observations of pre- and postfire composition indicate that switches in forest state are more likely in conifer stands that burn at a young age, supporting the hypothesis that resilience is lower in immature stands. Stands dominated by deciduous trees or jack pine were generally resilient to fire, while mixed conifer and well-drained spruce forests were less resilient. However, simulation modeling suggests increased fire activity may result in large changes in forest age structure and composition, despite the feedbacks between vegetation-fire likely to occur with increased fire activity.

Perceptual Range, Targeting Ability, and Visual Habitat Detection by Greater Fritillary Butterflies Speyeria cybele (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and Speyeria atlantis.

Butterflies are widely invoked as model organisms in studies of metapopulation and dispersal processes. Integral to such investigations are understandings of perceptual range; the maximum distance at which organisms are able to detect patches of suitable habitat. To infer perceptual range, researchers have released butterflies at varying distances from habitat patches and observed their subsequent flight behaviors. It is often assumed that butterflies rely on visual senses for habitat detection; however, this assumption has not been explicitly investigated. Here, we assess the extent and sensory determinants of perceptual range for the great spangled fritillary (Speyeria cybele (Fabricius, 1775)) and Atlantis fritillary (Speyeria atlantis (W.H. Edwards, 1862)). This was achieved by experimentally releasing butterflies over open water at various distances from a lake island, representing an isolated habitat patch in a dichotomous habitat-matrix landscape. To infer whether butterflies rely on vision for habitat detection, we exposed a subset of butterflies to a series of intense light flashes before release to induce flash blindness (bleaching of photoreceptive rhodopsins) without affecting olfaction. Flashed individuals were 30.1 times less likely to successfully navigate to the target island after release, suggesting butterflies rely primarily on visual senses to navigate fragmented landscapes. For unflashed butterflies, the likelihood of successful navigation decreased by a factor of 2.1 for every 10 m increase in release distance. However, no specific distance threshold for perceptual range was observed. We therefore suggest that perceptual range is best viewed as a continuum of probabilities (targeting ability), reflecting the likelihood of habitat detection across a range of distances.

Trophic interactions among vertebrate guilds and plants shape global patterns in species diversity.

Trophic interactions play critical roles in structuring biotic communities. Understanding variation in trophic interactions among systems provides important insights into biodiversity maintenance and conservation. However, the relative importance of bottom-up versus top-down trophic processes for broad-scale patterns in biodiversity is poorly understood. Here, we used global datasets on species richness of vascular plants, mammals and breeding birds to evaluate the role of trophic interactions in shaping large-scale diversity patterns. Specifically, we used non-recursive structural equation models to test for top-down and bottom-up forcing of global species diversity patterns among plants and trophic guilds of mammals and birds (carnivores, invertivores and herbivores), while accounting for extrinsic environmental drivers. The results show that trophic linkages emerged as being more important to explaining species richness than extrinsic environmental drivers. In particular, there were strong, positive top-down interactions between mammal herbivores and plants, and moderate to strong bottom-up and/or top-down interactions between herbivores/invertivores and carnivores. Estimated trophic interactions for separate biogeographical regions were consistent with global patterns. Our findings demonstrate that, after accounting for environmental drivers, large-scale species richness patterns in plant and vertebrate taxa consistently support trophic interactions playing a major role in shaping global patterns in biodiversity. Furthermore, these results suggest that top-down forces often play strong complementary roles relative to bottom-up drivers in structuring biodiversity patterns across trophic levels. These findings underscore the importance of integrating trophic forcing mechanisms into studies of biodiversity patterns.

Combining aggregated and dispersed tree retention harvesting for conservation of vascular plant communities.

Retention harvesting (also called tree retention or structural retention), in which live mature trees are selectively retained within harvested stands at different retention levels and in different patterns (aggregated to dispersed), is increasingly being used to mitigate the negative impacts of forest harvesting on biodiversity. However, the effectiveness of combining different patterns of retention harvesting for conservation and recovery of understory vascular plants in the long term is largely unknown. To address this gap, we compared understory vascular plant diversity, abundance, and composition between aggregated retention and five levels of surrounding dispersed retention (0% [clearcut], 10%, 20%, 50%, 75%) 15 yr postharvest. We also investigated the influence of dispersed retention on the ability of embedded retention patches to support plant communities characteristic of unharvested forests, and whether it varies by patch size of aggregated retention (0.20 ha or 0.46 ha) and position within patches (edge or interior). Species richness, diversity, and cover were higher in the dispersed retention than in the patch retention as the harvested areas favored early-seral plant species. Graminoid cover was greater at the edges than in the interior of large patches. Retention patches as small as 0.2 ha more effectively supported shade-tolerant (forest interior) plant communities when they were surrounded by higher levels of dispersed retention (as compared to patches retained within clearcuts). Overall, the combined use of both aggregated and dispersed retention within a given cutblock benefits both late- and early-seral plant species and thus could effectively conserve understory plant assemblages in harvested landscapes. Sustainable forest management should therefore consider using a range of retention patch sizes combined with varying levels of surrounding dispersed retention in harvest designs to achieve objectives for plant conservation.

Narrow anthropogenic corridors direct the movement of a generalist boreal butterfly.

Ecological and anthropogenic corridors are becoming more common worldwide, but little is known about how corridor size (width) affects species' movements, and thus their effects. Here we investigated whether 4- and 8-m wide anthropogenic corridors (seismic lines) cleared for petroleum (oil sands) exploration in boreal forests in Alberta, Canada, act on altering the behaviour of a habitat generalist butterfly, the Arctic fritillary (Boloria chariclea). Specifically, we captured 539 Arctic fritillaries and released them in seismic line corridor or control sites with no structural directionality (i.e. forests and clearings), and recorded both their initial direction (along the seismic line or not) and persistence in directional movements. Arctic fritillaries moved inside these lines twice as often as they left them, and maintained their initial direction more often, regardless of line size and independently of forest structure or sex of individuals. Thus, anthropogenic corridors as narrow as 4 m can affect insect movements. Given the vast area of boreal forests disturbed from seismic assessments, investigating if the effects of these dense, localized lines affect population dynamics and species interactions would provide important insights to managing this ecosystem and identifying restoration actions.

Decoupling habitat fragmentation from habitat loss: butterfly species mobility obscures fragmentation effects in a naturally fragmented landscape of lake islands.

Since the publication of the theory of island biogeography, ecologists have postulated that fragmentation of continuous habitat presents a prominent threat to species diversity. However, negative fragmentation effects may be artifacts; the result of species diversity declining with habitat loss, and habitat loss correlating positively with degree of fragmentation. In this study, we used butterfly assemblages on islands of Lake of the Woods, Ontario, Canada to decouple habitat fragmentation from habitat loss and test two competing hypotheses: (1) the island effect hypothesis, which predicts that decreasing fragment size and increasing fragment isolation reduces species diversity beyond the effects of habitat loss, and (2) the habitat amount hypothesis, which negates fragmentation effects and predicts that only total habitat area determines the diversity of species persisting on fragmented landscapes. Using eight independent size classes of islands (ranging from 0.1 to 8.0 ha) that varied in number of islands while holding total area constant, species diversity comparisons, species accumulation curves, and species-area relationship extrapolations demonstrated that smaller insular habitats contained at least as many butterfly species as continuous habitat. However, when highly mobile species occurring on islands without their larval food plants were excluded from analyses, island effects on potentially reproducing species became apparent. Similarily, generalized linear models suggested that effects of island isolation and vascular plant richness on insular butterfly richness were confounded by species of high mobility. We conclude that inter-fragment movements of highly mobile species may obscure important fragmentation effects on potentially reproducing populations, questioning support for the habitat amount hypothesis.

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales.

Forbidden fruit: human settlement and abundant fruit create an ecological trap for an apex omnivore.

Habitat choice is an evolutionary product of animals experiencing increased fitness when preferentially occupying high-quality habitat. However, an ecological trap (ET) can occur when an animal is presented with novel conditions and the animal's assessment of habitat quality is poorly matched to its resulting fitness. We tested for an ET for grizzly (brown) bears using demographic and movement data collected in an area with rich food resources and concentrated human settlement. We derived measures of habitat attractiveness from occurrence models of bear food resources and estimated demographic parameters using DNA mark-recapture information collected over 8 years (2006-2013). We then paired this information with grizzly bear mortality records to investigate kill and movement rates. Our results demonstrate that a valley high in both berry resources and human density was more attractive than surrounding areas, and bears occupying this region faced 17% lower apparent survival. Despite lower fitness, we detected a net flow of bears into the ET, which contributed to a study-wide population decline. This work highlights the presence and pervasiveness of an ET for an apex omnivore that lacks the evolutionary cues, under human-induced rapid ecological change, to assess trade-offs between food resources and human-caused mortality, which results in maladaptive habitat selection.

REVIEW: Can habitat selection predict abundance?

Habitats have substantial influence on the distribution and abundance of animals. Animals' selective movement yields their habitat use. Animals generally are more abundant in habitats that are selected most strongly. Models of habitat selection can be used to distribute animals on the landscape or their distribution can be modelled based on data of habitat use, occupancy, intensity of use or counts of animals. When the population is at carrying capacity or in an ideal-free distribution, habitat selection and related metrics of habitat use can be used to estimate abundance. If the population is not at equilibrium, models have the flexibility to incorporate density into models of habitat selection; but abundance might be influenced by factors influencing fitness that are not directly related to habitat thereby compromising the use of habitat-based models for predicting population size. Scale and domain of the sampling frame, both in time and space, are crucial considerations limiting application of these models. Ultimately, identifying reliable models for predicting abundance from habitat data requires an understanding of the mechanisms underlying population regulation and limitation.

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities).

Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.

Trophic cascades: linking ungulates to shrub-dependent birds and butterflies.

1. Studies demonstrating trophic cascades through the loss of top-down regulatory processes in productive and biologically diverse terrestrial ecosystems are limited. 2. Elk Island National Park, Alberta and surrounding protected areas have a wide range of ungulate density due to the functional loss of top predators, management for high ungulate numbers and variable hunting pressure. This provides an ideal setting for studying the effects of hyper-abundant ungulates on vegetation and shrub-dependent bird and butterfly species. 3. To examine the cascading effects of high ungulate density, we quantified vegetation characteristics and abundances of yellow warbler Dendroica petechia and Canadian tiger swallowtail Papilio canadensis under different ungulate density in and around Elk Island National Park. 4. Using Structural Equation Models we found that ungulate density was inversely related to shrub cover, whereas shrub cover was positively related to yellow warbler abundance. In addition, chokecherry Prunus virginiana abundance was inversely related to browse impact but positively related to P. canadensis abundance. 5. These results demonstrate a cascade resulting from hyper-abundant ungulates on yellow warblers and Canadian tiger swallowtails through reductions in shrub cover and larval host plant density. The combined effect of the functional loss of top predators and management strategies that maintain high ungulate numbers can decouple top-down regulation of productive temperate ecosystems.

Environmental, biological and anthropogenic effects on grizzly bear body size: temporal and spatial considerations.

BACKGROUND: Individual body growth is controlled in large part by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of, and competition for, resources. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos L.) are an excellent species for studying the effects of resource heterogeneity and maternal effects (i.e. silver spoon) on life history traits such as body size because their habitats are highly variable in space and time. Here, we evaluated influences on body size of grizzly bears in Alberta, Canada by testing six factors that accounted for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environments during maternal, natal and 'capture' (recent) environments. After accounting for intrinsic biological factors (age, sex), we examined how body size, measured in mass, length and body condition, was influenced by: (a) population density; (b) regional habitat productivity; (c) inter-annual variability in productivity (including silver spoon effects); (d) local habitat quality; (e) human footprint (disturbances); and (f) landscape change. RESULTS: We found sex and age explained the most variance in body mass, condition and length (R(2) from 0.48-0.64). Inter-annual variability in climate the year before and of birth (silver spoon effects) had detectable effects on the three-body size metrics (R(2) from 0.04-0.07); both maternal (year before birth) and natal (year of birth) effects of precipitation and temperature were related with body size. Local heterogeneity in habitat quality also explained variance in body mass and condition (R(2) from 0.01-0.08), while annual rate of landscape change explained additional variance in body length (R(2) of 0.03). Human footprint and population density had no observed effect on body size. CONCLUSIONS: These results illustrated that body size patterns of grizzly bears, while largely affected by basic biological characteristics (age and sex), were also influenced by regional environmental gradients the year before, and of, the individual's birth thus illustrating silver spoon effects. The magnitude of the silver spoon effects was on par with the influence of contemporary regional habitat productivity, which showed that both temporal and spatial influences explain in part body size patterns in grizzly bears. Because smaller bears were found in colder and less-productive environments, we hypothesize that warming global temperatures may positively affect body mass of interior bears.

Landscape-scale factors affecting feral horse habitat use during summer within the rocky mountain foothills.

Public lands occupied by feral horses in North America are frequently managed for multiple uses with land use conflict occurring among feral horses, livestock, wildlife, and native grassland conservation. The factors affecting habitat use by horses is critical to understand where conflict may be greatest. We related horse presence and abundance to landscape attributes in a GIS to examine habitat preferences using 98 field plots sampled within a portion of the Rocky Mountain Forest Reserve of SW Alberta, Canada. Horse abundance was greatest in grassland and cut block habitats, and lowest in conifer and mixedwood forest. Resource selection probability functions and count models of faecal abundance indicated that horses preferred areas closer to water, with reduced topographic ruggedness, situated farther from forests, and located farther away from primary roads and trails frequented by recreationalists, but closer to small linear features (i.e. cut lines) that may be used as beneficial travel corridors. Horse presence and abundance were closely related to cattle presence during summer, suggesting that both herbivores utilise the same habitats. Estimates of forage biomass removal (44 %) by mid-July were near maximum acceptable levels. In contrast to horse-cattle associations, horses were negatively associated with wild ungulate abundance, although the mechanism behind this remains unclear and warrants further investigation. Our results indicate that feral horses in SW Alberta exhibit complex habitat selection patterns during spring and summer, including overlap in use with livestock. This finding highlights the need to assess and manage herbivore populations consistent with rangeland carrying capacity and the maintenance of range health.

Lake Superior's summer cooling of shorelines and adjacent inland forests: Implications for refugia of boreal forests and disjunct arctic-alpine plants.

Climate refugia can serve as remnant habitat for cold-adapted species and delay forest transitions. The world's largest freshwater lake by surface area, Lake Superior, serves as a model system for understanding cooling-mediated refugia effects, as its cool summer water temperatures have maintained disjunct populations of arctic-alpine plants on its shoreline since deglaciation. It is known to affect local inland climates by providing a summer cooling effect; however, the inland temperature gradient and spatial patterns of cooling have not been well quantified. Here, we describe the extent, degree, and patterns of temperature buffering and examine drivers of buffering and disjunct plant occurrence for Lake Superior's north shore over a 3-year period at distances of 10, 100 m, 1, 10, and 100 km inland. We analyzed temperature data by year, month, summer maximum (July), and growing degree days (GDD0) for each site. Average summertime cooling at shore sites (10 m) was ~5°C cooler than reference sites (100 km inland), with a maximum difference of -19.2°C. The magnitude of cooling varied geographically, with sites further west and southeast showing little to no cooling effect, while the exposed north-central shore showed the highest degree of buffering (5.8°C cooler) and had a shorter growing season than reference sites. Finally, north-central shorelines had fewer days above 16°C, a threshold above which disjunct plants are unlikely to grow. These sites also showed the highest proportion of disjunct arctic-alpine species, reflecting the highest buffering from inland sites. On north-central shores, sites up to 10 km inland had less than 10 days per year warmer than 20°C, a threshold identified for boreal forest transition. An understanding of the extent of lake-mediated cooling on adjacent forests can better inform the risk to disjunct species, inland forests, and vegetation transition models on Lake Superior's north shore.

Mule deer fawn recruitment dynamics in an energy disturbed landscape.

Wildlife population dynamics are modulated by abiotic and biotic factors, typically climate, resource availability, density-dependent effects, and predator-prey interactions. Understanding whether and how human-caused disturbances shape these ecological processes is helpful for the conservation and management of wildlife and their habitats within increasingly human-dominated landscapes. However, many jurisdictions lack either long-term longitudinal data on wildlife populations or measures of the interplay between human-mediated disturbance, climate, and predator density. Here, we use a 50-year time series (1962-2012) on mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) demographics, seasonal weather, predator density, and oil and gas development patterns from the North Dakota Badlands, USA, to investigate long-term effects of landscape-level disturbance on mule deer fawn fall recruitment, which has declined precipitously over the last number of decades. Mule deer fawn fall recruitment in this study represents the number of fawns per female (fawn:female ratio) that survive through the summer to October. We used this fawn recruitment index to evaluate the composite effects of interannual extreme weather conditions, energy development, and predator density. We found that density-dependent effects and harsh seasonal weather were the main drivers of fawn fall recruitment in the North Dakota Badlands. These effects were further shaped by the interaction between harsh seasonal weather and predator density (i.e., lower fawn fall recruitment when harsh weather was combined with higher predator density). Additionally, we found that fawn fall recruitment was modulated by interactions between seasonal weather and energy development (i.e., lower fawn fall recruitment when harsh weather was combined with higher density of active oil and gas wells). Interestingly, we found that the combined effect of predator density and energy development was not interactive but rather additive. Our analysis demonstrates how energy development may modulate fluctuations in mule deer fawn fall recruitment concurrent with biotic (density-dependency, habitat, predation, woody vegetation encroachment) and abiotic (harsh seasonal weather) drivers. Density-dependent patterns emerge, presumably due to limited quality habitat, being the primary factor influencing fall fawn recruitment in mule deer. Secondarily, stochastic weather events periodically cause dramatic declines in recruitment. And finally, the additive effects of human disturbance and predation can induce fluctuations in fawn fall recruitment. Here we make the case for using long-term datasets for setting long-term wildlife management goals that decision makers and the public can understand and support.

Topographic and vegetation drivers of thermal heterogeneity along the boreal-grassland transition zone in western Canada: Implications for climate change refugia.

Climate change refugia are areas that are relatively buffered from contemporary climate change and may be important safe havens for wildlife and plants under anthropogenic climate change. Topographic variation is an important driver of thermal heterogeneity, but it is limited in relatively flat landscapes, such as the boreal plain and prairie regions of western Canada. Topographic variation within this region is mostly restricted to river valleys and hill systems, and their effects on local climates are not well documented. We sought to quantify thermal heterogeneity as a function of topography and vegetation cover within major valleys and hill systems across the boreal-grassland transition zone. Using iButton data loggers, we monitored local temperature at four hills and 12 river valley systems that comprised a wide range of habitats and ecosystems in Alberta, Canada (N = 240), between 2014 and 2020. We then modeled monthly temperature by season as a function of topography and different vegetation cover types using general linear mixed effect models. Summer maximum temperatures (T max) varied nearly 6°C across the elevation gradient sampled. Local summer mean (T mean) and maximum (T max) temperatures on steep, north-facing slopes (i.e., low levels of potential solar radiation) were up to 0.70°C and 2.90°C cooler than highly exposed areas, respectively. T max in incised valleys was between 0.26 and 0.28°C cooler than other landforms, whereas areas with greater terrain roughness experienced maximum temperatures that were up to 1.62°C cooler. We also found that forest cover buffered temperatures locally, with coniferous and mixedwood forests decreasing summer T mean from 0.23 to 0.72°C and increasing winter T min by up to 2°C, relative to non-forested areas. Spatial predictions of temperatures from iButton data loggers were similar to a gridded climate product (ClimateNA), but the difference between them increased with potential solar radiation, vegetation cover, and terrain roughness. Species that can track their climate niche may be able to compensate for regional climate warming through local migrations to cooler microsites. Topographic and vegetation characteristics that are related to cooler local climates should be considered in the evaluation of future climate change impacts and to identify potential refugia from climate change.

Using digital time-lapse cameras to monitor species-specific understorey and overstorey phenology in support of wildlife habitat assessment.

Critical to habitat management is the understanding of not only the location of animal food resources, but also the timing of their availability. Grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) diets, for example, shift seasonally as different vegetation species enter key phenological phases. In this paper, we describe the use of a network of seven ground-based digital camera systems to monitor understorey and overstorey vegetation within species-specific regions of interest. Established across an elevation gradient in western Alberta, Canada, the cameras collected true-colour (RGB) images daily from 13 April 2009 to 27 October 2009. Fourth-order polynomials were fit to an RGB-derived index, which was then compared to field-based observations of phenological phases. Using linear regression to statistically relate the camera and field data, results indicated that 61% (r (2) = 0.61, df = 1, F = 14.3, p = 0.0043) of the variance observed in the field phenological phase data is captured by the cameras for the start of the growing season and 72% (r (2) = 0.72, df = 1, F = 23.09, p = 0.0009) of the variance in length of growing season. Based on the linear regression models, the mean absolute differences in residuals between predicted and observed start of growing season and length of growing season were 4 and 6 days, respectively. This work extends upon previous research by demonstrating that specific understorey and overstorey species can be targeted for phenological monitoring in a forested environment, using readily available digital camera technology and RGB-based vegetation indices.