Population-based validation of the prognostic model ADJUVANT! for early breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Adjuvant! (www.adjuvantonline.com) is a web-based tool that predicts 10-year breast cancer outcomes with and without adjuvant systemic therapy, but it has not been independently validated. METHODS: Using the British Columbia Breast Cancer Outcomes Unit (BCOU) database, demographic, pathologic, staging, and treatment data on 4,083 women diagnosed between 1989 and 1993 in British Columbia with T1-2, N0-1, M0 breast cancer were abstracted and entered into Adjuvant! to calculate predicted 10-year overall survival (OS), breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), and event-free survival (EFS) for each patient. Individual BCOU observed outcomes at 10 years were independently determined. Predicted and observed outcomes were compared. RESULTS: Across all 4,083 patients, 10-year predicted and observed outcomes were within 1% for OS, BCSS, and EFS (all P > .05). Predicted and observed outcomes were within 2% for most demographic, pathologic, and treatment-defined subgroups. Adjuvant! overestimated OS, BCSS, and EFS in women younger than age 35 years (predicted-observed = 8.6%, 9.6%, and 13.6%, respectively; all P < .001) or with lymphatic or vascular invasion (LVI; predicted-observed = 3.6%, 3.8%, and 4.2%, respectively; all P < .05); these two prognostic factors were not automatically incorporated within the Adjuvant! algorithm. After adjusting for the distribution of LVI, using the prognostic factor impact calculator in Adjuvant!, 10-year predicted and observed outcomes were no longer significantly different. CONCLUSION: Adjuvant! performed reliably. Patients younger than age 35 or with known additional adverse prognostic factors such as LVI require adjustment of risks to derive reliable predictions of prognosis without adjuvant systemic therapy and the absolute benefits of adjuvant systemic therapy.

Randomized trial of tamoxifen versus combined tamoxifen and octreotide LAR Therapy in the adjuvant treatment of early-stage breast cancer in postmenopausal women: NCIC CTG MA.14.

PURPOSE: Somatostatin analogs act directly on breast cancer cells and indirectly on insulin and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) levels. This trial was undertaken to assess whether octreotide would lower insulin and IGF-1 levels and reduce risk of breast cancer recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The NCIC CTG MA.14 (NCIC Clinical Trials Group MA.14) trial randomly assigned postmenopausal women to 5 years of tamoxifen 20 mg daily (TAM) or TAM plus 2 years of octreotide 90 mg depot intramuscular injections monthly (TAM-OCT) as adjuvant therapy. The primary end point was event-free survival (EFS). Secondary end points were relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), toxicity, and effects of treatment on IGF physiology. RESULTS: Among 667 women with a median follow-up of 7.9 years, 220 events occurred-108 with TAM-OCT and 112 with TAM. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs; TAM-OCT to TAM) were 0.93 for EFS (95% CI, 0.71 to 1.22; P = .62), 0.84 for RFS (95% CI, 0.59 to 1.18; P = .31), and 0.97 for OS (95% CI, 0.69 to 1.37; P = .86). Among patients with normal baseline gallbladder imaging, cholecystectomy was required in 23.0% of those receiving TAM-OCT but in only 1.4% of those receiving TAM (P < .001). At 4 months, TAM-OCT had significantly (P < .001) lowered IGF-1, IGF binding protein 3, and C-peptide levels. Older age (P = .02), tumor size (P = .001), nodal status (P = .01), high C-peptide levels (P < .001), and higher body mass index (BMI) in models excluding C-peptide (P < .001) were associated with poorer EFS in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Octreotide-related changes in circulating IGF-1 and C-peptide levels were statistically significant. Octreotide did not add significant clinical benefit. High C-peptide levels (surrogate for insulin secretion rate) and high BMI were associated with poor outcome.