Modelling runway incursion severity.

Analysis of the causes underlying runway incursions is fundamental for the development of effective mitigation measures. However, there are significant weaknesses in the current methods to model these factors. This paper proposes a structured framework for modelling causal factors and their relationship to severity, which includes a description of the airport surface system architecture, establishment of terminological definitions, the determination and collection of appropriate data, the analysis of occurrences for severity and causes, and the execution of a statistical analysis framework. It is implemented in the context of U.S. airports, enabling the identification of a number of priority interventions, including the need for better investigation and causal factor capture, recommendations for airfield design, operating scenarios and technologies, and better training for human operators in the system. The framework is recommended for the analysis of runway incursions to support safety improvements and the methodology is transferable to other areas of aviation safety risk analysis.

The impact of airport characteristics on airport surface accidents and incidents.

INTRODUCTION: Airport surface safety and in particular runway and taxiway safety is acknowledged globally as one of aviation's greatest challenges. To improve this key area of aviation safety, it is necessary to identify and understand the causal and contributing factors on safety occurrences. While the contribution of human factors, operations, and procedures has been researched extensively, the impact of the airport and its associated characteristics itself has received little or no attention. METHOD: This paper introduces a novel methodology for risk and hazard assessment of airport surface operations, and models the relationships between airport characteristics, and (a) the rate of occurrences, (b) the severity of occurrences, and (c) the causal factors underlying occurrences. RESULTS: The results show for the first time how the characteristics of airports, and in particular its infrastructure and operations, influence the safety of surface operations.

A spatial and temporal analysis of safety-belt usage and safety-belt laws.

Safety-belt usage has increased significantly in the US since the introduction of mandatory safety-belt usage laws in the 1980s. This paper analyzes the impact of these laws on increasing safety-belt usage while controlling for other state-specific variables. A fixed effects cross-sectional time-series analyses shows the relative significance of various state-level attributes in explaining safety-belt usage, including whether or not primary or secondary safety-belt laws have been passed. To further explore these relationships we employ spatial analyses techniques and find spatial autocorrelation in the data. Spatial correlation also exhibits a clear east-west direction. When the analyses is further corrected for temporal autocorrelation we find that the spatial autocorrelation is greatly diminished and that many variables lose their statistical significance, though safety-belt laws are still statistically significant. Results suggest that for this data, it is critical to control for temporal autocorrelation while spatial autocorrelation is less important. We also find that our spatial analyses does provide interesting information on similarities between various regions on the effectiveness of safety-belt laws.