Ranking the risk of animal-to-human spillover for newly discovered viruses.

The death toll and economic loss resulting from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are stark reminders that we are vulnerable to zoonotic viral threats. Strategies are needed to identify and characterize animal viruses that pose the greatest risk of spillover and spread in humans and inform public health interventions. Using expert opinion and scientific evidence, we identified host, viral, and environmental risk factors contributing to zoonotic virus spillover and spread in humans. We then developed a risk ranking framework and interactive web tool, SpillOver, that estimates a risk score for wildlife-origin viruses, creating a comparative risk assessment of viruses with uncharacterized zoonotic spillover potential alongside those already known to be zoonotic. Using data from testing 509,721 samples from 74,635 animals as part of a virus discovery project and public records of virus detections around the world, we ranked the spillover potential of 887 wildlife viruses. Validating the risk assessment, the top 12 were known zoonotic viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Several newly detected wildlife viruses ranked higher than known zoonotic viruses. Using a scientifically informed process, we capitalized on the recent wealth of virus discovery data to systematically identify and prioritize targets for investigation. The publicly accessible SpillOver platform can be used by policy makers and health scientists to inform research and public health interventions for prevention and rapid control of disease outbreaks. SpillOver is a living, interactive database that can be refined over time to continue to improve the quality and public availability of information on viral threats to human health.

Incorporating multiple sets of eQTL weights into gene-by-environment interaction analysis identifies novel susceptibility loci for pancreatic cancer.

It is of great scientific interest to identify interactions between genetic variants and environmental exposures that may modify the risk of complex diseases. However, larger sample sizes are usually required to detect gene-by-environment interaction (G × E) than required to detect genetic main association effects. To boost the statistical power and improve the understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms, we incorporate functional genomics information, specifically, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs), into a data-adaptive G × E test, called aGEw. This test adaptively chooses the best eQTL weights from multiple tissues and provides an extra layer of weighting at the genetic variant level. Extensive simulations show that the aGEw test can control the Type 1 error rate, and the power is resilient to the inclusion of neutral variants and noninformative external weights. We applied the proposed aGEw test to the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium (discovery cohort of 3,585 cases and 3,482 controls) and the PanScan II genome-wide association study data (replication cohort of 2,021 cases and 2,105 controls) with smoking as the exposure of interest. Two novel putative smoking-related pancreatic cancer susceptibility genes, TRIP10 and KDM3A, were identified. The aGEw test is implemented in an R package aGE.

Coronavirus surveillance of wildlife in the Lao People's Democratic Republic detects viral RNA in rodents.

Coronaviruses can become zoonotic, as in the case of COVID-19, and hunting, sale, and consumption of wild animals in Southeast Asia increases the risk for such incidents. We sampled and tested rodents (851) and other mammals and found betacoronavirus RNA in 12 rodents. The sequences belong to two separate genetic clusters and are closely related to those of known rodent coronaviruses detected in the region and distantly related to those of human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1. Considering the close human-wildlife contact with many species in and beyond the region, a better understanding of virus diversity is urgently needed for the mitigation of future risks.

First evidence of a new simian adenovirus clustering with Human mastadenovirus F viruses.

BACKGROUND: Adenoviruses play an important role as human pathogens, though most infections are believed to be asymptomatic. The over 100 human adenovirus types are classified into seven species (A-G), some of which include simian adenoviruses. Recent findings have highlighted that simian adenoviruses have a zoonotic potential and that some human adenoviruses are likely the result of relatively recent spillover events. METHODS: In order to evaluate the risks associated with primates hunted and sold as bushmeat, multiple samples from 24 freshly killed monkeys were collected in the Republic of the Congo and tested for adenovirus DNA by PCRs targeting the conserved DNA polymerase and hexon genes. RESULTS: The DNA of a novel simian adenovirus was detected in a moustached monkey (Cercopithecus cephus) by the DNA polymerase PCR, but not by the hexon PCR. The 275 nucleotide amplicon was most closely related to members of the Human mastadenovirus F species (93% HAdV-40 and 89% HAdV-41 amino acid identity), rather than to other known simian adenoviruses. CONCLUSIONS: The phylogenetic clustering with Human mastadenovirus F sequences suggests a common ancestor, more recent than the last common ancestor of humans and moustached monkeys. The findings increase concerns about the zoonotic potential of simian adenoviruses and highlight the need for more research and surveillance on the issue.

Bats are not squirrels: Revisiting the cost of cooling in hibernating mammals.

Many species use stored energy to hibernate through periods of resource limitation. Hibernation, a physiological state characterized by depressed metabolism and body temperature, is critical to winter survival and reproduction, and therefore has been extensively quantified and modeled. Hibernation consists of alternating phases of extended periods of torpor (low body temperature, low metabolic rate), and energetically costly periodic arousals to normal body temperature. Arousals consist of multiple phases: warming, euthermia, and cooling. Warming and euthermic costs are regularly included in energetic models, but although cooling to torpid body temperature is an important phase of the torpor-arousal cycle, it is often overlooked in energetic models. When included, cooling cost is assumed to be 67% of warming cost, an assumption originally derived from a single study that measured cooling cost in ground squirrels. Since this study, the same proportional value has been assumed across a variety of hibernating species. However, no additional values have been derived. We derived a model of cooling cost from first principles and validated the model with empirical energetic measurements. We compared the assumed 67% proportional cooling cost with our model-predicted cooling cost for 53 hibernating mammals. Our results indicate that using 67% of warming cost only adequately represents cooling cost in ground squirrel-sized mammals. In smaller species, this value overestimates cooling cost and in larger species, the value underestimates cooling cost. Our model allows for the generalization of energetic costs for multiple species using species-specific physiological and morphometric parameters, and for predictions over variable environmental conditions.

Post-mortem findings in southern right whales Eubalaena australis at Península Valdés, Argentina, 2003-2012.

Between 2003 and 2012, 605 southern right whales (SRW; Eubalaena australis) were found dead along the shores of Península Valdés (PV), Argentina. These deaths included alarmingly high annual losses between 2007 and 2012, a peak number of deaths (116) in 2012, and a significant number of deaths across years in calves-of-the-year (544 of 605 [89.9%]; average = 60.4 yr(-1)). Post-mortem examination and pathogen testing were performed on 212 whales; 208 (98.1%) were calves-of-the-year and 48.0% of these were newborns or neonates. A known or probable cause of death was established in only a small number (6.6%) of cases. These included ship strike in a juvenile and blunt trauma or lacerations (n = 5), pneumonia (n = 4), myocarditis (n = 2), meningitis (n = 1), or myocarditis and meningitis (n = 1) in calves. Ante-mortem gull parasitism was the most common gross finding. It was associated with systemic disease in a single 1-2 mo old calf. Immunohistochemical labeling for canine distemper virus, Toxoplasma gondii and Brucella spp., and PCR for cetacean morbillivirus (CeMV), influenza A, and apicomplexan protozoa were negative on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded lung and brain samples from a subset of whales; PCR for Brucella spp. was positive in a newborn/neonate with pneumonia. Skin samples from whales with gull parasitism were PCR negative for CeMV, poxvirus, and papillomavirus. This is the first long-term study to investigate and summarize notable post-mortem findings in the PV SRW population. Consistent, significant findings within or between years to explain the majority of deaths and those in high-mortality years remain to be identified.

Drivers of Emerging Infectious Disease Events as a Framework for Digital Detection.

The growing field of digital disease detection, or epidemic intelligence, attempts to improve timely detection and awareness of infectious disease (ID) events. Early detection remains an important priority; thus, the next frontier for ID surveillance is to improve the recognition and monitoring of drivers (antecedent conditions) of ID emergence for signals that precede disease events. These data could help alert public health officials to indicators of elevated ID risk, thereby triggering targeted active surveillance and interventions. We believe that ID emergence risks can be anticipated through surveillance of their drivers, just as successful warning systems of climate-based, meteorologically sensitive diseases are supported by improved temperature and precipitation data. We present approaches to driver surveillance, gaps in the current literature, and a scientific framework for the creation of a digital warning system. Fulfilling the promise of driver surveillance will require concerted action to expand the collection of appropriate digital driver data.

The sampling scheme matters: Pan troglodytes troglodytes and P. t. schweinfurthii are characterized by clinal genetic variation rather than a strong subspecies break.

Populations of an organism living in marked geographical or evolutionary isolation from other populations of the same species are often termed subspecies and expected to show some degree of genetic distinctiveness. The common chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) is currently described as four geographically delimited subspecies: the western (P. t. verus), the nigerian-cameroonian (P. t. ellioti), the central (P. t. troglodytes) and the eastern (P. t. schweinfurthii) chimpanzees. Although these taxa would be expected to be reciprocally monophyletic, studies have not always consistently resolved the central and eastern chimpanzee taxa. Most studies, however, used data from individuals of unknown or approximate geographic provenance. Thus, genetic data from samples of known origin may shed light on the evolutionary relationship of these subspecies. We generated microsatellite genotypes from noninvasively collected fecal samples of 185 central chimpanzees that were sampled across large parts of their range and analyzed them together with 283 published eastern chimpanzee genotypes from known localities. We observed a clear signal of isolation by distance across both subspecies. Further, we found that a large proportion of comparisons between groups taken from the same subspecies showed higher genetic differentiation than the least differentiated between-subspecies comparison. This proportion decreased substantially when we simulated a more clumped sampling scheme by including fewer groups. Our results support the general concept that the distribution of the sampled individuals can dramatically affect the inference of genetic population structure. With regard to chimpanzees, our results emphasize the close relationship of equatorial chimpanzees from central and eastern equatorial Africa and the difficult nature of subspecies definitions.

The genetic population structure of wild western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) living in continuous rain forest.

To understand the evolutionary histories and conservation potential of wild animal species it is useful to assess whether taxa are genetically structured into different populations and identify the underlying factors responsible for any clustering. Landscape features such as rivers may influence genetic population structure, and analysis of structure by sex can further reveal effects of sex-specific dispersal. Using microsatellite genotypes obtained from noninvasively collected fecal samples we investigated the population structure of 261 western lowland gorillas (WLGs) (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) from seven locations spanning an approximately 37,000 km(2) region of mainly continuous rain forest within Central African Republic (CAR), Republic of Congo and Cameroon. We found our sample to consist of two or three significantly differentiated clusters. The boundaries of the clusters coincided with courses of major rivers. Moreover, geographic distance detoured around rivers better-explained variation in genetic distance than straight line distance. Together these results suggest that major rivers in our study area play an important role in directing WLG gene flow. The number of clusters did not change when males and females were analyzed separately, indicating a lack of greater philopatry in WLG females than males at this scale.

Diversity and prevalence of zoonotic infections at the animal-human interface of primate trafficking in Peru.

Wildlife trafficking creates favorable scenarios for intra- and inter-specific interactions that can lead to parasite spread and disease emergence. Among the fauna affected by this activity, primates are relevant due to their potential to acquire and share zoonoses - infections caused by parasites that can spread between humans and other animals. Though it is known that most primate parasites can affect multiple hosts and that many are zoonotic, comparative studies across different contexts for animal-human interactions are scarce. We conducted a multi-parasite screening targeting the detection of zoonotic infections in wild-caught monkeys in nine Peruvian cities across three contexts: captivity (zoos and rescue centers, n = 187); pet (households, n = 69); and trade (trafficked or recently confiscated, n = 132). We detected 32 parasite taxa including mycobacteria, simian foamyvirus, bacteria, helminths, and protozoa. Monkeys in the trade context had the highest prevalence of hemoparasites (including Plasmodium malariae/brasilianum, Trypanosoma cruzi, and microfilaria) and enteric helminths and protozoa were less common in pet monkeys. However, parasite communities showed overall low variation between the three contexts. Parasite richness (PR) was best explained by host genus and the city where the animal was sampled. Squirrel (genus Saimiri) and wooly (genus Lagothrix) monkeys had the highest PR, which was ~2.2 times the PR found in tufted capuchins (genus Sapajus) and tamarins (genus Saguinus/Leontocebus) in a multivariable model adjusted for context, sex, and age. Our findings illustrate that the threats of wildlife trafficking to One Health encompass exposure to multiple zoonotic parasites well-known to cause disease in humans, monkeys, and other species. We demonstrate these threats continue beyond the markets where wildlife is initially sold; monkeys trafficked for the pet market remain a reservoir for and contribute to the translocation of zoonotic parasites to households and other captive facilities where contact with humans is frequent. Our results have practical applications for the healthcare of rescued monkeys and call for urgent action against wildlife trafficking and ownership of monkeys as pets.

Historical prevalence and distribution of avian influenza virus A(H7N9) among wild birds.

We examined 48 published studies for which sample sizes could be ascertained to determine the historic prevalence of influenza A(H7N9) virus in wild bird populations and reviewed GenBank data to further establish its distribution. Low prevalence (0.0093%) in Asia suggests > 30,000 samples would be required to detect the H7N9 subtype in wild birds.

Case report: Lumpy skin disease in an endangered wild banteng (Bos javanicus) and initiation of a vaccination campaign in domestic livestock in Cambodia.

We describe a case of lumpy skin disease in an endangered banteng in Cambodia and the subsequent initiation of a vaccination campaign in domestic cattle to protect wild bovids from disease transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface. Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) was first detected in domestic cattle in Cambodia in June of 2021 and rapidly spread throughout the country. In September 2021, a banteng was seen in Phnom Tnout Phnom Pok wildlife sanctuary with signs of lumpy skin disease. Scab samples were collected and tested positive for LSDV. Monitoring using line transect surveys and camera traps in protected areas with critical banteng and gaur populations was initiated from December 2021-October 2022. A collaborative multisector vaccination campaign to vaccinate domestic livestock in and around priority protected areas with banteng and gaur was launched July 2022 and a total of 20,089 domestic cattle and water buffalo were vaccinated with LumpyvaxTM. No signs of LSDV in banteng or gaur in Cambodia have been observed since this initial case. This report documents the first case of lumpy skin disease in wildlife in Cambodia and proposes a potential intervention to mitigate the challenge of pathogen transmission at the domestic-wildlife interface. While vaccination can support local livestock-based economies and promote biodiversity conservation, it is only a component of an integrated solution and One Health approach to protect endangered species from threats at the wildlife-livestock interface.

Ecological characterization of 175 low-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses isolated from wild birds in Mongolia, 2009-2013 and 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Since 2005, highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N1 viruses have spread from Asia worldwide, infecting poultry, humans and wild birds. Subsequently, global interest in avian influenza (AI) surveillance increased. OBJECTIVES: Mongolia presents an opportunity to study viruses in wild birds because the country has very low densities of domestic poultry and supports large concentrations of migratory water birds. METHODS: We conducted AI surveillance in Mongolia over two time periods, 2009-2013 and 2016-2018, utilizing environmental fecal sampling. Fresh fecal samples were collected from water bird congregation sites. Hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) subtypes of positive samples were identified through viral isolation or molecular assays, with pathogenicity determined by HA subtype or sequencing the HA cleavage site. RESULTS: A total of 10,222 samples were collected. Of these, 7,025 fecal samples were collected from 2009 to 2013, and 3,197 fecal samples were collected from 2016 to 2018. Testing revealed 175 (1.7%) positive samples for low-pathogenicity influenza A, including 118 samples from 2009 to 2013 (1.7%) and 57 samples from 2016 to 2018 (1.8%). HA and NA subtyping of all positives identified 11 subtypes of HA and nine subtypes of NA in 29 different combinations. Within periods, viruses were detected more frequently during the fall season than in the early summer. CONCLUSION: Mongolia's critical wild bird habitat is positioned as a crossroad of multiple migratory flyways. Our work demonstrates the feasibility of using an affordable environmental fecal sampling approach for AI surveillance and contributes to understanding the prevalence and ecology of low-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses in this important location, where birds from multiple flyways mix.

One Health Surveillance Highlights Circulation of Viruses with Zoonotic Potential in Bats, Pigs, and Humans in Viet Nam.

A One Health cross-sectoral surveillance approach was implemented to screen biological samples from bats, pigs, and humans at high-risk interfaces for zoonotic viral spillover for five viral families with zoonotic potential in Viet Nam. Over 1600 animal and human samples from bat guano harvesting sites, natural bat roosts, and pig farming operations were tested for coronaviruses (CoVs), paramyxoviruses, influenza viruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses using consensus PCR assays. Human samples were also tested using immunoassays to detect antibodies against eight virus groups. Significant viral diversity, including CoVs closely related to ancestors of pig pathogens, was detected in bats roosting at the human-animal interfaces, illustrating the high risk for CoV spillover from bats to pigs in Viet Nam, where pig density is very high. Season and reproductive period were significantly associated with the detection of bat CoVs, with site-specific effects. Phylogeographic analysis indicated localized viral transmission among pig farms. Our limited human sampling did not detect any known zoonotic bat viruses in human communities living close to the bat cave and harvesting bat guano, but our serological assays showed possible previous exposure to Marburg virus-like (Filoviridae), Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus-like (Bunyaviridae) viruses and flaviviruses. Targeted and coordinated One Health surveillance helped uncover this viral pathogen emergence hotspot.

WildHealthNet: Supporting the development of sustainable wildlife health surveillance networks in Southeast Asia.

Wildlife and wildlife interfaces with people and livestock are essential surveillance targets to monitor emergent or endemic pathogens or new threats affecting wildlife, livestock, and human health. However, limitations of previous investments in scope and duration have resulted in a neglect of wildlife health surveillance (WHS) systems at national and global scales, particularly in lower and middle income countries (LMICs). Building on decades of wildlife health activities in LMICs, we demonstrate the implementation of a locally-driven multi-pronged One Health approach to establishing WHS in Cambodia, Lao PDR and Viet Nam under the WildHealthNet initiative. WildHealthNet utilizes existing local capacity in the animal, public health, and environmental sectors for event based or targeted surveillance and disease detection. To scale up surveillance systems to the national level, WildHealthNet relies on iterative field implementation and policy development, capacity bridging, improving data collection and management systems, and implementing context specific responses to wildlife health intelligence. National WHS systems piloted in Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam engaged protected area rangers, wildlife rescue centers, community members, and livestock and human health sector staff and laboratories. Surveillance activities detected outbreaks of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds, African swine fever in wild boar (Sus scrofa), Lumpy skin disease in banteng (Bos javanicus), and other endemic zoonotic pathogens identified as surveillance priorities by local stakeholders. In Cambodia and Lao PDR, national plans for wildlife disease surveillance are being signed into legislation. Cross-sectoral and trans-disciplinary approaches are needed to implement effective WHS systems. Long-term commitment, and paralleled implementation and policy development are key to sustainable WHS networks. WildHealthNet offers a roadmap to aid in the development of locally-relevant and locally-led WHS systems that support the global objectives of the World Organization for Animal Health's Wildlife Health Framework and other international agendas.

Lean Mass Dynamics in Hibernating Bats and Implications for Energy and Water Budgets.

AbstractHibernation requires balancing energy and water demands over several months. Many studies have noted the importance of fat for hibernation energy budgets, but protein catabolism in hibernation has received less attention, and whole-animal changes in lean mass have not previously been considered. We used quantitative magnetic resonance body composition analysis to measure deposition of fat and lean mass of cave myotis (Myotis velifer) during the prehibernation period and decreases in fat and lean mass of Townsend's big-eared bats (Corynorhinus townsendii) during hibernation. For cave myotis, lean mass represented 25% and 38% (female and male, respectively) of prehibernation mass gain. In hibernating Townsend's big-eared bats, lean mass decrease was similar for females and males. We used values for Townsend's big-eared bats to explore the functional implications of lean mass change for water and energy budgets. Lean mass accounted for a substantial proportion of mass change during hibernation (female: 18%, male: 35%), and although not accounting for a large proportion of the energy budget (female: 3%, male: 7%), lean mass catabolism represented an important contribution to water production (female: 14%, male: 29%). Although most mammals cannot rely on protein catabolism for metabolic water production because of the water cost of excreting urea, we propose a variation of the protein-for-water strategy whereby hibernators could temporally compartmentalize the benefits of protein catabolism to periods of torpor and the water cost to periodic arousals when free drinking water is typically available. Combined, our analyses demonstrate the importance of considering changes in lean mass during hibernation.

Orbivirus RNA in a Banana Serotine (Afronycteris nanus) Bat in the Republic of the Congo.

Orbiviruses are arthropod borne viruses of vertebrates, with some of them being important pathogens of veterinary, conservation and economic importance, while others are occasionally associated with human disease. Some apparently bat specific orbiviruses have been detected, but little is known about their distribution and diversity. We thus sampled and screened 52 bats living in the Congo Basin, and detected RNA indicative of a novel orbivirus in a single banana serotine (Afronycteris nanus) by PCR. The detected RNA clusters with epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus, bluetongue virus, and others. The findings highlight the need for more studies into arbovirus presence and diversity in bat species.

Similar hibernation physiology in bats across broad geographic ranges.

Species with broad geographic ranges may experience varied environmental conditions throughout their range leading to local adaptation. Variation among populations reflects potential adaptability or plasticity, with implications for populations impacted by disease, climate change, and other anthropogenic influences. However, behavior may counteract divergent selection among populations. We studied intraspecific variation in hibernation physiology of Myotis lucifugus (little brown myotis) and Corynorhinus townsendii (Townsend's big-eared bat), two species of bats with large geographic ranges. We studied M. lucifugus at three hibernacula which spanned a latitudinal gradient of 1500 km, and C. townsendii from 6 hibernacula spread across 1200 km latitude and 1200 km longitude. We found no difference in torpid metabolic rate among populations of either species, nor was there a difference in the effect of ambient temperature among sites. Evaporative water loss was similar among populations of both species, with the exception of one C. townsendii pairwise site difference and one M. lucifugus site that differed from the others. We suggest the general lack of geographic variation is a consequence of behavioral microhabitat selection. As volant animals, bats can travel relatively long distances in search of preferred microclimates for hibernation. Despite dramatic macroclimate differences among populations, hibernating bats are able to find preferred microclimate conditions within their range, resulting in similar selection pressures among populations spread across wide geographic ranges.

Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win-win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control.

As sustainable development practitioners have worked to "ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all" and "conserve life on land and below water", what progress has been made with win-win interventions that reduce human infectious disease burdens while advancing conservation goals? Using a systematic literature review, we identified 46 proposed solutions, which we then investigated individually using targeted literature reviews. The proposed solutions addressed diverse conservation threats and human infectious diseases, and thus, the proposed interventions varied in scale, costs, and impacts. Some potential solutions had medium-quality to high-quality evidence for previous success in achieving proposed impacts in one or both sectors. However, there were notable evidence gaps within and among solutions, highlighting opportunities for further research and adaptive implementation. Stakeholders seeking win-win interventions can explore this Review and an online database to find and tailor a relevant solution or brainstorm new solutions.