A framework for considering the utility of models when facing tough decisions in public health: a guideline for policy-makers.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the combined disciplines of public health, infectious disease and policy modelling squarely into the spotlight. Never before have decisions regarding public health measures and their impacts been such a topic of international deliberation, from the level of individuals and communities through to global leaders. Nor have models-developed at rapid pace and often in the absence of complete information-ever been so central to the decision-making process. However, after nearly 3 years of experience with modelling, policy-makers need to be more confident about which models will be most helpful to support them when taking public health decisions, and modellers need to better understand the factors that will lead to successful model adoption and utilization. We present a three-stage framework for achieving these ends.

Tumor testing to identify lynch syndrome in two Australian colorectal cancer cohorts.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Tumor testing of colorectal cancers (CRC) for mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency is an effective approach to identify carriers of germline MMR gene mutation (Lynch syndrome). The aim of this study was to identify MMR gene mutation carriers in two cohorts of population-based CRC utilizing a combination of tumor and germline testing approaches. METHODS: Colorectal cancers from 813 patients diagnosed with CRC < 60 years of age from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR) and from 826 patients from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) were tested for MMR protein expression using immunohistochemistry, microsatellite instability (MSI), BRAFV600E somatic mutation, and for MLH1 methylation. MMR gene mutation testing (Sanger sequencing and Multiplex Ligation Dependent Probe Amplification) was performed on germline DNA of patients with MMR-deficient tumors and a subset of MMR-proficient CRCs. RESULTS: Of the 813 ACCFR probands, 90 probands demonstrated tumor MMR deficiency (11.1%), and 42 had a MMR gene germline mutation (5.2%). For the MCCS, MMR deficiency was identified in the tumors of 103 probands (12.5%) and seven had a germline mutation (0.8%). All the mutation carriers were diagnosed prior to 70 years of age. Probands with a MMR-deficient CRC without MLH1 methylation and a gene mutation were considered Lynch-like and comprised 41.1% and 25.2% of the MMR-deficient CRCs for the ACCFR and MCCS, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Identification of MMR gene mutation carriers in Australian CRC-affected patients is optimized by immunohistochemistry screening of CRC diagnosed before 70 years of age. A significant proportion of MMR-deficient CRCs will have unknown etiology (Lynch-like) proving problematic for clinical management.

Female Hormonal Factors and the Risk of Endometrial Cancer in Lynch Syndrome.

IMPORTANCE: Apart from hysterectomy, there is no consensus recommendation for reducing endometrial cancer risk for women with a mismatch repair gene mutation (Lynch syndrome). OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between hormonal factors and endometrial cancer risk in Lynch syndrome. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective cohort study included 1128 women with a mismatch repair gene mutation identified from the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Data were analyzed with a weighted cohort approach. Participants were recruited between 1997 and 2012 from centers across the United States, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. EXPOSURES: Age at menarche, first and last live birth, and menopause; number of live births; hormonal contraceptive use; and postmenopausal hormone use. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Self-reported diagnosis of endometrial cancer. RESULTS: Endometrial cancer was diagnosed in 133 women (incidence rate per 100 person-years, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.24 to 0.34). Endometrial cancer was diagnosed in 11% (n = 70) of women with age at menarche greater than or equal to 13 years compared with 12.6% (n = 57) of women with age at menarche less than 13 years (incidence rate per 100 person-years, 0.27 vs 0.31; rate difference, -0.04 [95% CI, -0.15 to 0.05]; hazard ratio per year, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.73 to 0.99]; P = .04). Endometrial cancer was diagnosed in 10.8% (n = 88) of parous women compared with 14.4% (n = 40) of nulliparous women (incidence rate per 100 person-years, 0.25 vs 0.43; rate difference, -0.18 [95% CI, -0.32 to -0.04]; hazard ratio, 0.21 [95% CI, 0.10 to 0.42]; P < .001). Endometrial cancer was diagnosed in 8.7% (n = 70) of women who used hormonal contraceptives greater than or equal to 1 year compared with 19.2% (n = 57) of women who used contraceptives less than 1 year (incidence rate per 100 person-years, 0.22 vs 0.45; rate difference, -0.23 [95% CI, -0.36 to -0.11]; hazard ratio, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.23 to 0.64]; P < .001). There was no statistically significant association between endometrial cancer and age at first and last live birth, age at menopause, and postmenopausal hormone use. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: For women with a mismatch repair gene mutation, some endogenous and exogenous hormonal factors were associated with a lower risk of endometrial cancer. These directions and strengths of associations were similar to those for the general population. If replicated, these findings suggest that women with a mismatch repair gene mutation may be counseled like the general population in regard to hormonal influences on endometrial cancer risk.

The total health gains and cost savings of eradicating cold housing in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Cold indoor temperature (<18 °C) is associated with hypertension-related and respiratory disease, depression, and anxiety. We estimate total health, health expenditure and income impacts of permanently lifting the temperature in living areas of the home to 18 °C in cold homes in South-eastern Australia (N = 17 million). METHODS: A proportional multistate lifetable model was used to estimate health adjusted life years (HALYs), health expenditure and income earnings, over the remainder of the lifespan of the population alive in 2021 (3% discount rate). Multiple data were integrated including the prevalence of cold housing (5.87%; mean temperature 15 °C), the effect of temperature to hypertension-related, respiratory disease, depression and anxiety. FINDINGS: Eradicating cold housing was predicted to lead to 89,600 (95% UI 47,700 to 177,000) lifetime HALYs gained over the population's remaining lifespan, nearly half of which occurred from 2021 to 2040. Respiratory disease (32.4%) and mental illness (60.6%) made large contributions to HALYs gained, but also had large uncertainty (95% UI 30.0%-42.9% and 45.1%-64.6%, respectively) due to uncertain estimates of their magnitude of causal association with cold housing. Health gains per capita were 6.1 times greater (95% UI 4.7 to 8.1) among the most compared to least deprived quintile. From 2021 to 2040, health expenditure decreased by AUD$0.87 billion (0.35-1.98) and income earnings increased by AUD$4.35 billion (1.89-9.81). INTERPRETATION: Eliminating cold housing would lead to substantial health gains, reductions in health inequalities, savings in health expenditure, and productivity gains. Next steps require research to reduce uncertainty about the magnitude of causal associations of cold with mental and respiratory health.

The Colorectal cancer RISk Prediction (CRISP) trial: a randomised controlled trial of a decision support tool for risk-stratified colorectal cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: A risk-stratified approach to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening could result in a more acceptable balance of benefits and harms, and be more cost-effective. AIM: To determine the effect of a consultation in general practice using a computerised risk assessment and decision support tool (Colorectal cancer RISk Prediction, CRISP) on risk-appropriate CRC screening. DESIGN AND SETTING: Randomised controlled trial in 10 general practices in Melbourne, Australia, from May 2017 to May 2018. METHOD: Participants were recruited from a consecutive sample of patients aged 50-74 years attending their GP. Intervention consultations included CRC risk assessment using the CRISP tool and discussion of CRC screening recommendations. Control group consultations focused on lifestyle CRC risk factors. The primary outcome was risk-appropriate CRC screening at 12 months. RESULTS: A total of 734 participants (65.1% of eligible patients) were randomised (369 intervention, 365 control); the primary outcome was determined for 722 (362 intervention, 360 control). There was a 6.5% absolute increase (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.28 to 13.2) in risk-appropriate screening in the intervention compared with the control group (71.5% versus 65.0%; odds ratio [OR] 1.36, 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.86, P = 0.057). In those due CRC screening during follow-up, there was a 20.3% (95% CI = 10.3 to 30.4) increase (intervention 59.8% versus control 38.9%; OR 2.31, 95% CI = 1.51 to 3.53, P<0.001) principally by increasing faecal occult blood testing in those at average risk. CONCLUSION: A risk assessment and decision support tool increases risk-appropriate CRC screening in those due screening. The CRISP intervention could commence in people in their fifth decade to ensure people start CRC screening at the optimal age with the most cost-effective test.

Attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years caused by infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and the European Economic Area in 2015: a population-level modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Infections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria are threatening modern health care. However, estimating their incidence, complications, and attributable mortality is challenging. We aimed to estimate the burden of infections caused by antibiotic-resistant bacteria of public health concern in countries of the EU and European Economic Area (EEA) in 2015, measured in number of cases, attributable deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). METHODS: We estimated the incidence of infections with 16 antibiotic resistance-bacterium combinations from European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) 2015 data that was country-corrected for population coverage. We multiplied the number of bloodstream infections (BSIs) by a conversion factor derived from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control point prevalence survey of health-care-associated infections in European acute care hospitals in 2011-12 to estimate the number of non-BSIs. We developed disease outcome models for five types of infection on the basis of systematic reviews of the literature. FINDINGS: From EARS-Net data collected between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2015, we estimated 671 689 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 583 148-763 966) infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, of which 63·5% (426 277 of 671 689) were associated with health care. These infections accounted for an estimated 33 110 (28 480-38 430) attributable deaths and 874 541 (768 837-989 068) DALYs. The burden for the EU and EEA was highest in infants (aged <1 year) and people aged 65 years or older, had increased since 2007, and was highest in Italy and Greece. INTERPRETATION: Our results present the health burden of five types of infection with antibiotic-resistant bacteria expressed, for the first time, in DALYs. The estimated burden of infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the EU and EEA is substantial compared with that of other infectious diseases, and has increased since 2007. Our burden estimates provide useful information for public health decision-makers prioritising interventions for infectious diseases. FUNDING: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Averting the AMR crisis: what are the avenues for policy action for countries in Europe?

This policy brief summarizes some of the key policy avenues for tackling antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Following the widely accepted ‘One Health’ approach to combating AMR, the brief aims to support the implementation of national action plans (NAPs) on AMR, drawing on numerous examples of effective policies implemented by European Union Member States and involving the human, animal and environmental health sectors.