RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The term "Overlap Syndrome" (OS) describes the presence of both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in a single individual. Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) is a common symptom of OS shown to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) that could be reduced through exercise. Thus, we propose to investigate a novel exercise intervention in individuals with the EDS-OS phenotype as they are at highest risk of CVD yet have the greatest barriers to exercise. METHODS: We will conduct a single-site, randomized, two-arm, parallel group-controlled exercise trial in individuals with EDS-OS. The Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) will be assessed at baseline. Individuals with OS and the EDS-OS phenotype (ESS >10) (n = 46) will be randomized to a moderate intensity interval training (MIIT, i.e. intervals of 5 min at 50% VO2peak followed by 3 min of active recovery at 10% VO2peak) or a control group of standard of care. We will investigate if MIIT intervention decreases the risk of CVD in EDS-OS, which will be assessed by: 1) quality of life, measured by the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey; 2) physical activity, measured by daily step counts; and 3) cardiovascular health, assessed as VO2peak, flow-mediated dilation and serum high sensitivity C-reactive protein, lipids, and glucose. CONCLUSION: Our findings will guide future development and implementation of exercise interventions that could reduce the risk of CVD in the understudied EDS-OS phenotype.
Assuntos
Distúrbios do Sono por Sonolência Excessiva , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica , Apneia Obstrutiva do Sono , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Treinamento Intervalado de Alta Intensidade/métodos , Consumo de Oxigênio , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/complicações , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/terapia , Qualidade de Vida , Apneia Obstrutiva do Sono/terapia , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: When added to age, CD4 count and human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA alone (Restricted Index), hemoglobin, FIB-4 Index, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and estimated glomerular filtration rate improve prediction of mortality. Weighted and combined, these 7 routine clinical variables constitute the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index. Because nonroutine biomarkers of inflammation (interleukin 6 [IL-6]), coagulation (D-dimer), and monocyte activation (sCD14) also predict mortality, we test the association of these indices and biomarkers with each other and with mortality. METHODS: Samples from 1302 HIV-infected veterans on antiretroviral therapy were analyzed. Indices were calculated closest to date of collection. We calculated Spearman correlations stratified by HIV-1 RNA and HCV status and measured association with mortality using C statistics and net reclassification improvement (NRI). RESULTS: Of 1302 subjects, 915 had HIV-1 RNA <500 copies/mL and 154 died. The VACS Index was more correlated with IL-6, D-dimer, and sCD14 than the Restricted Index (P < .001). It was also more predictive of mortality (C statistic, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], .72-.80) than any biomarker (C statistic, 0.66-0.70) or the Restricted Index (C statistic, 0.71; 95% CI, .67-.75). Compared to the Restricted Index alone, NRI resulted from incremental addition of VACS Index components (10%), D-dimer (7%), and sCD14 (4%), but not from IL-6 (0%). CONCLUSIONS: Among HIV-infected individuals, independent of CD4, HIV-1 RNA, and age, hemoglobin and markers of liver and renal injury are associated with inflammation. Addition of D-dimer and sCD14, but not IL-6, improves the predictive accuracy of the VACS Index for mortality.
Assuntos
Envelhecimento , Biomarcadores/sangue , Produtos de Degradação da Fibrina e do Fibrinogênio/análise , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/mortalidade , Interleucina-6/sangue , Receptores de Lipopolissacarídeos/sangue , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/patologia , HIV-1/imunologia , HIV-1/patogenicidade , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Análise de SobrevidaRESUMO
Little is known about longitudinal change in physical functioning of older African American/Black and White HIV-infected persons. We examined up to 10 years of data on African American (N = 1,157) and White (N = 400) men with HIV infection and comparable HIV-negative men (n = 1,137 and 530, respectively), age 50-91 years from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Survey sample. Physical functioning was assessed using the SF-12 (12-Item Short Form Health Survey) physical component summary (PCS) score. Mixed-effects models examined association of demographics, health conditions, health behaviors, and selected interactions with PCS score; HIV biomarkers were evaluated for HIV-infected persons. PCS scores were approximately one standard deviation below that of the general U.S. population of similar age. Across the four HIV/race groups, over time and through ages 65-75 years, PCS scores were maintained; differences were not clinically significant. PCS score was not associated with race or with interactions among age, race, and HIV status. CD4 and viral load counts of African American and White HIV-infected men were similar. Older age, low socioeconomic status, chronic health conditions and depression, lower body mass index, and smoking were associated with poorer PCS score in both groups. Exercising and, counterintuitively, being HIV infected were associated with better PCS score. Among these older African American and White male veterans, neither race nor HIV status was associated with PCS score, which remained relatively stable over time. Chronic disease, depression, and lack of exercise were associated with lower PCS score. To maintain independence in this population, attention should be paid to controlling chronic conditions, and emphasizing good health behaviors.
Assuntos
Envelhecimento , Negro ou Afro-Americano/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por HIV/etnologia , Veteranos/estatística & dados numéricos , População Branca/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Biomarcadores/sangue , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Qualidade de Vida , Fatores Raciais , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Inflammation in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients is associated with poorer health outcomes. Whether inflammation as measured by the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) adds information to existing prognostic indices is not known. METHODS: We analyzed data from 2000 to 2012 in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS), overall and stratified by HIV/hepatitis C virus status (n = 89 786). We randomly selected a visit date at which all laboratory values of interest were available within 180 days; participants with HIV received at least 1 year of antiretroviral therapy. We followed patients for (1) mortality and (2) hepatic decompensation (HD) and analyzed associations using Cox regression, adjusted for a validated mortality risk index (VACS Index 2.0). In VACS Biomarker Cohort, we considered correlation with biomarkers of inflammation: interleukin-6, D-dimer, and soluble CD-14. RESULTS: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and PLR demonstrated strong unadjusted associations with mortality (P < .0001) and HD (P < .0001) and were weakly correlated with other inflammatory biomarkers. Although NLR remained statistically independent for mortality, as did PLR for HD, the addition of NLR and PLR to the VACS Index 2.0 did not result in significant improvement in discrimination compared with VACS Index 2.0 alone for mortality (C-statistic 0.767 vs 0.758) or for HD (C-statistic 0.805 vs 0.801). CONCLUSIONS: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and PLR were strongly associated with mortality and HD and weakly correlated with inflammatory biomarkers. However, most of their association was explained by VACS Index 2.0. Addition of NLR and PLR to VACS 2.0 did not substantially improve discrimination for either outcome.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Overlap syndrome (OS) describes the association of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in a single individual. Subjects with OS have increased cardiovascular mortality which is presumed to be inflammation-mediated. As a clinical biomarker, an increased neutrophil count correlates with the severity of coronary artery stenosis. OBJECTIVES: As little is known about the role of neutrophils in the underlying inflammatory mechanisms in OS, we aimed to assess the percentage of peripheral neutrophils (PPN) in OS vs in COPD alone. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study of patients with COPD and severe comorbidities, as defined by a Care Assessment Need score over 95, were seen in the Pulmonary Tele-Health Clinic at the Salem Veteran Affairs Medical Center, USA, over a 1-year period. Demographic and polysomnographic data, FEV1 and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were extracted from the Electronic Medical Records. Obstructive sleep apnea was defined according to the American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) guidelines. Serum inflammatory markers (PPN, CRP, fibrinogen and procalcitonin) were obtained after the Tele-Health appointment. RESULTS: Out of the 38 subjects with COPD, 17 (44%) had OS. Compliance with continuous positive airway pressure therapy (CPAP) was excellent in 7 OS subjects (41%). There was a significant difference in the PPN of subjects with OS vs COPD alone, regardless of whether they were compliant (p = 0.03) with the CPAP therapy or not (p = 0.005). No differences in the severity of COPD, baseline comorbidity, smoking, or inflammatory markers were found between the OS and COPD-only subjects. Body mass index (BMI), COPD severity, smoking, and home oxygen therapy (HOT) use were not associated with PPN (p > 0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Overlap syndrome subjects have higher PPN than those with COPD alone, regardless of their CPAP compliance. Our results could be used to motivate OS subjects to improve their lifestyles and to comply with drug therapies aimed at reducing cardiovascular disease (CVD).
Assuntos
Neutrófilos/imunologia , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/diagnóstico , Apneia Obstrutiva do Sono/diagnóstico , Doenças do Tecido Conjuntivo Indiferenciado , Biomarcadores , Comorbidade , Pressão Positiva Contínua nas Vias Aéreas , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/complicações , Apneia Obstrutiva do Sono/complicaçõesRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: The success of antiretroviral therapy has led to dramatic changes in causes of morbidity and mortality among U.S. Veterans with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Among the 25,000 Veterans treated for HIV, 70% are over age 50 and the rate of obesity has doubled in this population. Veterans with HIV have a 50% increased risk of myocardial infarction yet have limited presence in prevention-related programs designed to lower cardiovascular disease risk. METHODS: This mixed methods study (focus groups, Schwarzer and Renner physical activity, and nutrition self-efficacy questionnaires) was used to explore factors related to health behavior and identify barriers that overweight Veterans with HIV face in enrolling in the MOVE weight management program. Institutional review board approval was granted before the start of the study. All participants were recruited from the Infectious Disease clinic if they met national inclusion criteria for the MOVE weight management program and had not previously participated in the program. Transcribed audio recordings were independently analyzed and coded by four of the researchers using an exploratory process to obtain consensus regarding themes. An interrater reliability analysis for the Kappa statistic was performed to determine consistency among raters. The relationship between physical activity self-efficacy scores and nutrition self-efficacy scores was tested using Spearman's correlation coefficient. RESULTS: The median age of the sample was 56 with high rates of diabetes (36%), hypertension (73%), hyperlipidemia (36%), and tobacco use history (82%). External barriers to participation were discussed in addition to 8 other themes, which influence treatment engagement for Veterans with obesity and HIV including adaptation, stigma, self-management, and support. Veterans held strong beliefs about responsibility and commitment to their health and wanted to assume an active and informed role in their health care. Veterans with high levels of perceived self-efficacy indicated intention to overcome barriers to improve their nutrition and increase their physical activity. Refer to the full manuscript online to see the results in tables. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the chronic life-threatening nature of their condition, Veterans with HIV display a remarkable ability to adapt and commit to their treatment regimen. However, the dual stigma of obesity and HIV was a significant barrier to participation in weight management. This group placed high value on exercise over eating healthier and the importance of social support particularly from their Veteran peers. Focus groups allowed for fluid interaction between group members and researchers, rich conversation, and allowed additional clarification and exploration of topics. One unanticipated effect of the focus groups was that participants may feel less isolated after being a part of the discussion and may develop supportive relationships with their peers. It is possible that participants demonstrated more positive behavioral adaptation or other possible sources of bias. The study findings provide insight into health beliefs and barriers to weight management for all populations struggling with chronic disease and stigma. Data collected will inform future recruitment and retention strategies to engage Veterans with HIV in prevention-related programs designed to enhance long-term health and wellness.
Assuntos
Manutenção do Peso Corporal , Infecções por HIV/psicologia , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Veteranos/psicologia , Índice de Massa Corporal , Exercício Físico , Feminino , Grupos Focais , Infecções por HIV/fisiopatologia , HIV-1/patogenicidade , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Política Nutricional , Obesidade/fisiopatologia , Obesidade/psicologia , Autoeficácia , Autogestão , Estigma Social , Inquéritos e Questionários , Estados Unidos , United States Department of Veterans Affairs/organização & administração , VirginiaRESUMO
The nature of the HIV epidemic in the United States and Canada has changed with a shift toward rural areas. Socioeconomic factors, geography, cultural context, and evolving epidemics of injection drug use are coalescing to move the epidemic into locations where populations are dispersed and health care resources are limited. Rural-urban differences along the care continuum demonstrate the implications of this sociogeographic shift. Greater attention is needed to build a more comprehensive understanding of the rural HIV epidemic in the United States and Canada, including research efforts, innovative approaches to care delivery, and greater community engagement in prevention and care.
Assuntos
Continuidade da Assistência ao Paciente/organização & administração , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Canadá , Humanos , População Rural , Estados UnidosRESUMO
Importance: With improved survival, heart failure (HF) has become a major complication for individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. It is unclear if this risk extends to different types of HF in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) era. Determining whether HIV infection is associated with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), or both is critical because HF types differ with respect to underlying mechanism, treatment, and prognosis. Objectives: To investigate whether HIV infection increases the risk of future HFrEF and HFpEF and to assess if this risk varies by sociodemographic and HIV-specific factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study evaluated 98â¯015 participants without baseline cardiovascular disease from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study, an observational cohort of HIV-infected veterans and uninfected veterans matched by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and clinical site, enrolled on or after April 1, 2003, and followed up through September 30, 2012. The dates of the analysis were October 2015 to November 2016. Exposure: Human immunodeficiency virus infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included HFpEF (EF≥50%), borderline HFpEF (EF 40%-49%), HFrEF (EF<40%), and HF of unknown type (EF missing). Results: Among 98â¯015 participants, the mean (SD) age at enrollment in the study was 48.3 (9.8) years, 97.0% were male, and 32.2% had HIV infection. During a median follow-up of 7.1 years, there were 2636 total HF events (34.6% were HFpEF, 15.5% were borderline HFpEF, 37.1% were HFrEF, and 12.8% were HF of unknown type). Compared with uninfected veterans, HIV-infected veterans had an increased risk of HFpEF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.03-1.41), borderline HFpEF (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.09-1.72), and HFrEF (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.40-1.86). The risk of HFrEF was pronounced in veterans younger than 40 years at baseline (HR, 3.59; 95% CI, 1.95-6.58). Among HIV-infected veterans, time-updated HIV-1 RNA viral load of at least 500 copies/mL compared with less than 500 copies/mL was associated with an increased risk of HFrEF, and time-updated CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/mm3 compared with at least 500 cells/mm3 was associated with an increased risk of HFrEF and HFpEF. Conclusions and Relevance: Individuals who are infected with HIV have an increased risk of HFpEF, borderline HFpEF, and HFrEF compared with uninfected individuals. The increased risk of HFrEF can manifest decades earlier than would be expected in a typical uninfected population. Future research should focus on prevention, risk stratification, and identification of the mechanisms for HFrEF and HFpEF in the HIV-infected population.
Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Insuficiência Cardíaca/epidemiologia , Volume Sistólico , Veteranos , Adulto , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Contagem de Linfócito CD4 , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Insuficiência Cardíaca/fisiopatologia , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Comportamento de Redução do Risco , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , United States Department of Veterans Affairs , Carga ViralRESUMO
IMPORTANCE: Whether people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are at an increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) compared with uninfected people is not clear. Without demographically and behaviorally similar uninfected comparators and without uniformly measured clinical data on risk factors and fatal and nonfatal AMI events, any potential association between HIV status and AMI may be confounded. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether HIV is associated with an increased risk of AMI after adjustment for all standard Framingham risk factors among a large cohort of HIV-positive and demographically and behaviorally similar (ie, similar prevalence of smoking, alcohol, and cocaine use) uninfected veterans in care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Participants in the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Virtual Cohort from April 1, 2003, through December 31, 2009. PARTICIPANTS: After eliminating those with baseline cardiovascular disease, we analyzed data on HIV status, age, sex, race/ethnicity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, smoking, hepatitis C infection, body mass index, renal disease, anemia, substance use, CD4 cell count, HIV-1 RNA, antiretroviral therapy, and incidence of AMI. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Acute myocardial infarction. RESULTS: We analyzed data on 82 459 participants. During a median follow-up of 5.9 years, there were 871 AMI events. Across 3 decades of age, the mean (95% CI) AMI events per 1000 person-years was consistently and significantly higher for HIV-positive compared with uninfected veterans: for those aged 40 to 49 years, 2.0 (1.6-2.4) vs 1.5 (1.3-1.7); for those aged 50 to 59 years, 3.9 (3.3-4.5) vs 2.2 (1.9-2.5); and for those aged 60 to 69 years, 5.0 (3.8-6.7) vs 3.3 (2.6-4.2) (P < .05 for all). After adjusting for Framingham risk factors, comorbidities, and substance use, HIV-positive veterans had an increased risk of incident AMI compared with uninfected veterans (hazard ratio, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.27-1.72). An excess risk remained among those achieving an HIV-1 RNA level less than 500 copies/mL compared with uninfected veterans in time-updated analyses (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.17-1.66). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Infection with HIV is associated with a 50% increased risk of AMI beyond that explained by recognized risk factors.
Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/complicações , Infarto do Miocárdio/etiologia , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Adulto , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Comorbidade , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infarto do Miocárdio/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Risco , Fumar/epidemiologia , VeteranosAssuntos
Fístula Biliar/patologia , Colecistite/patologia , Colelitíase/patologia , Vesícula Biliar/patologia , Dor Abdominal/etiologia , Dor Abdominal/fisiopatologia , Idoso , Fístula Biliar/diagnóstico , Fístula Biliar/fisiopatologia , Análise Química do Sangue , Colangite/diagnóstico , Colangite/fisiopatologia , Colecistite/diagnóstico , Colecistite/fisiopatologia , Colelitíase/diagnóstico , Colelitíase/fisiopatologia , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Humanos , Icterícia/etiologia , Icterícia/fisiopatologia , MasculinoRESUMO
It is unknown whether smoking confers similar mortality risk in HIV-positive as in HIV-negative patients. We compared overall mortality stratified by HIV and smoking of 1,034 HIV-positive block-matched to 739 HIV-negative veterans, enrolled 2001-2002 in the Veterans Aging Cohort 5 Site Study. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) for mortality were calculated using Poisson regression. Mortality was significantly increased in HIV-positive veterans according to both smoking status and pack-years in unadjusted and adjusted analyses (adjusted IRR 2.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.53-3.49 for HIV-positive current smokers and IRR 1.32, 95% CI 0.67-2.61 for HIV-negative current smokers). Comorbid diseases were also significantly increased according to smoking status and pack-years. Current smoking is associated with poor outcomes; even lower levels of exposure appear to be detrimental in HIV-infected veterans. These findings support the need for improvements in smoking cessation and for studies of mechanisms and diseases underlying increased mortality in smokers with HIV.
Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/mortalidade , Soronegatividade para HIV , Soropositividade para HIV/mortalidade , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Veteranos/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Contagem de Linfócito CD4 , Estudos de Coortes , Comorbidade , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Soropositividade para HIV/tratamento farmacológico , HIV-1/imunologia , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Qualidade de Vida , Fumar/epidemiologia , Análise de Sobrevida , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Carga ViralRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) is a study of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected and uninfected patients seen in infectious disease and general medical clinics. VACS includes the earlier 3 and 5 site studies (VACS 3 and VACS 5) as well as the ongoing 8 site study. OBJECTIVES: We sought to provide background and context for analyses based upon VACS data, including study design and rationale as well as its basic protocol and the baseline characteristics of the enrolled sample. RESEARCH DESIGN: We undertook a prospectively consented multisite observational study of veterans in care with and without HIV infection. MEASURES: Data were derived from patient and provider self report, telephone interviews, blood and DNA samples, focus groups, and full access to the national VA "paperless" electronic medical record system. RESULTS: More than 7200 veterans have been enrolled in at least one of the studies. The 8 site study (VACS) has enrolled 2979 HIV-infected and 3019 HIV-uninfected age-race-site matched comparators and has achieved stratified enrollment targets for race/ethnicity and age and 99% of its total target enrollment as of October 30, 2005. Participants in VACS are similar to other veterans receiving care within the VA. VACS participants are older and more predominantly black than those reported by the Centers for Disease Control. CONCLUSIONS: VACS has assembled a rich, in-depth, and representative sample of veterans in care with and without HIV infection to conduct longitudinal analyses of questions concerning the association between alcohol use and related comorbid and AIDS-defining conditions.
Assuntos
Envelhecimento , Estudos de Coortes , Desenvolvimento de Programas , Veteranos , Idoso , Causas de Morte , Doença Crônica , DNA/sangue , Coleta de Dados , Feminino , Grupos Focais , Infecções por HIV , Testes Hematológicos , Humanos , Entrevistas como Assunto , Masculino , Sistemas Computadorizados de Registros Médicos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Seleção de Pacientes , Estudos Prospectivos , Controle de QualidadeRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to define early virologic and immunologic determinants of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 disease progression among 22 case subjects with acute infection from the Trinidad Seroconvertor Cohort. METHODS: A linear segmented regression model was fitted to sequential quantitative virus load measurements. Parameters of virus kinetics during different phases of primary infection were correlated with clinical and immunologic end points, by use of Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression. RESULTS: Ten individuals developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events. In univariate analysis, progression to AIDS was associated with rate of initial HIV clearance (P=.002), virus load during set point (P=.008), and CD4(+) cell count during steady state (P=.04). In the multivariate analysis, a rapid rate of initial clearance was the sole independent predictor of subsequent progression to AIDS and was associated with a 92% reduction in the risk of AIDS. The rate of initial clearance is inversely correlated with the number of early symptoms (r=-0.66; P=.0008). However, symptoms did not predict subsequent risk of AIDS. CONCLUSION: Among a subset of patients, rapid clearance of plasma HIV-1 after peak viremia is associated with lower viral set point, prolonged virus suppression before loss of virologic control, and decreased risk of AIDS. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that effective immune responses during the earliest phase of infection are important determinants of the subsequent natural history.