Genetic testing to guide screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Results of a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: First-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have elevated PDAC risk, partially due to germline genetic variants. We evaluated the potential effectiveness of genetic testing to target MRI-based screening among FDRs. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of PDAC, calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, to estimate the potential life expectancy (LE) gain of screening for each of the following groups of FDRs: individuals who test positive for each of eight variants associated with elevated PDAC risk (e.g., BRCA2, CDKN2A); individuals who test negative; and individuals who do not test. Screening was assumed to take place if LE gains were achievable. We simulated multiple screening approaches, defined by starting age and frequency. Sensitivity analysis evaluated changes in results given varying model assumptions. RESULTS: For women, 92% of mutation carriers had projected LE gains from screening for PDAC, if screening strategies (start age, frequency) were optimized. Among carriers, LE gains ranged from 0.1 days (ATM+ women screened once at age 70) to 510 days (STK11+ women screened annually from age 40). For men, LE gains were projected for all mutation carriers, ranging from 0.2 days (BRCA1+ men screened once at age 70) to 620 days (STK11+ men screened annually from age 40). For men and women who did not undergo genetic testing, or for whom testing showed no variant, screening yielded small LE benefit (0-2.1 days). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic testing of FDRs can inform targeted PDAC screening by identifying which FDRs may benefit.

Abdominal Imaging Findings in COVID-19: Preliminary Observations.

Background Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, a target of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), demonstrates its highest surface expression in the lung, small bowel, and vasculature, suggesting abdominal viscera may be susceptible to injury. Purpose To report abdominal imaging findings in patients with coronavirus disease 2019. Materials and Methods In this retrospective cross-sectional study, patients consecutively admitted to a single quaternary care center from March 27 to April 10, 2020, who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were included. Abdominal imaging studies performed in these patients were reviewed, and salient findings were recorded. Medical records were reviewed for clinical data. Univariable analysis and logistic regression were performed. Results A total of 412 patients (average age, 57 years; range, 18 to >90 years; 241 men, 171 women) were evaluated. A total of 224 abdominal imaging studies were performed (radiography, n = 137; US, n = 44; CT, n = 42; MRI, n = 1) in 134 patients (33%). Abdominal imaging was associated with age (odds ratio [OR], 1.03 per year of increase; P = .001) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (OR, 17.3; P < .001). Bowel-wall abnormalities were seen on 31% of CT images (13 of 42) and were associated with ICU admission (OR, 15.5; P = .01). Bowel findings included pneumatosis or portal venous gas, seen on 20% of CT images obtained in patients in the ICU (four of 20). Surgical correlation (n = 4) revealed unusual yellow discoloration of the bowel (n = 3) and bowel infarction (n = 2). Pathologic findings revealed ischemic enteritis with patchy necrosis and fibrin thrombi in arterioles (n = 2). Right upper quadrant US examinations were mostly performed because of liver laboratory findings (87%, 32 of 37), and 54% (20 of 37) revealed a dilated sludge-filled gallbladder, suggestive of bile stasis. Patients with a cholecystostomy tube placed (n = 4) had negative bacterial cultures. Conclusion Bowel abnormalities and gallbladder bile stasis were common findings on abdominal images of patients with coronavirus disease 2019. Patients who underwent laparotomy often had ischemia, possibly due to small-vessel thrombosis. © RSNA, 2020.

Management implications of fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/magnetic resonance in untreated intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

PURPOSE: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is associated with a poor prognosis with surgical resection offering the best chance for long-term survival and potential cure. However, in up to 36% of patients who undergo surgery, more extensive disease is found at time of operation requiring cancellation of surgery. PET/MR is a novel hybrid technology that might improve local and whole-body staging in ICC patients, potentially influencing clinical management. This study was aimed to investigate the possible management implications of PET/MR, relative to conventional imaging, in patients affected by untreated intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. METHODS: Retrospective review of the clinicopathologic features of 37 patients with iCCC, who underwent PET/MR between September 2015 and August 2018, was performed to investigate the management implications that PET/MR had exerted on the affected patients, relative to conventional imaging. RESULTS: Of the 37 patients enrolled, median age 63.5 years, 20 (54%) were female. The same day PET/CT was performed in 26 patients. All patients were iCCC-treatment-naïve. Conventional imaging obtained as part of routine clinical care demonstrated early-stage resectable disease for 15 patients and advanced stage disease beyond the scope of surgical resection for 22. PET/MR modified the clinical management of 11/37 (29.7%) patients: for 5 patients (13.5%), the operation was cancelled due to identification of additional disease, while 4 "inoperable" patients (10.8%) underwent an operation. An additional 2 patients (5.4%) had a significant change in their operative plan based on PET/MR. CONCLUSIONS: When compared with standard imaging, PET/MR significantly influenced the treatment plan in 29.7% of patients with iCCC. TRIAL REGISTRATION: 2018P001334.

Personalized Treatment for Small Renal Tumors: Decision Analysis of Competing Causes of Mortality.

Purpose To compare the effectiveness of personalized treatment for small (≤4 cm) renal tumors versus routine partial nephrectomy (PN), accounting for various competing causes of mortality. Materials and Methods A state-transition microsimulation model was constructed to compare life expectancy of management strategies for small renal tumors by using 1 000 000 simulations in the following ways: routine PN or personalized treatment involving percutaneous ablation for risk factors for worsening chronic kidney disease (CKD), and otherwise PN; biopsy, with triage of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) to PN or ablation depending on risk factors for worsening CKD; active surveillance for growth; and active surveillance when MRI findings are indicative of papillary RCC. Transition probabilities were incorporated from the literature. Effects of parameter variability were assessed in sensitivity analysis. Results In patients of all ages with normal renal function, routine PN yielded the longest life expectancy (eg, 0.67 years in 65-year-old men with nephrometry score [NS] of 4). Otherwise, personalized strategies extended life expectancy versus routine PN: in CKD stages 2 or 3a, moderate or high NS, and no comorbidities, MRI guidance for active surveillance extended life expectancy (eg, 2.60 years for MRI vs PN in CKD 3a, NS 10); and with Charlson comorbidity index of 1 or more, biopsy or active surveillance for growth extended life expectancy (eg, 2.70 years for surveillance for growth in CKD 3a, NS 10). CKD 3b was most effectively managed by using MRI to help predict papillary RCC for surveillance. Conclusion For patients with chronic kidney disease and small renal tumors, personalized treatment selection likely extends life expectancy. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Barriers to Lung Cancer Screening Engagement from the Patient and Provider Perspective.

Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer mortality in the United States. Lung cancer screening (LCS) with low-dose CT reduces mortality among high-risk current and former smokers and has been covered by public and private insurers without cost sharing since 2015. Patients and referring providers confront numerous barriers to participation in screening. To best serve in multidisciplinary efforts to expand LCS nationwide, radiologists must be knowledgeable of these challenges. A better understanding of the difficulties confronted by other stakeholders will help radiologists continue to collaboratively guide the growth of LCS programs in their communities. This article reviews barriers to participation in LCS for patients and referring providers, as well as possible solutions and interventions currently underway.

Testing for Verification Bias in Reported Malignancy Risks for Side-Branch Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: A Simulation Modeling Approach.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to test for the possibility that published malignancy risks for side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are overestimates, likely due to verification bias. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We tested for possible verification bias using simulation modeling techniques. First, in age-defined hypothetical cohorts of 10 million persons, we projected the frequency of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) arising from side-branch IPMNs over 5 years using published estimates of their prevalence (4.4%) and rate of malignant transformation (1.9%). Second, we projected the total number of PDAC cases in corresponding cohorts over the same time horizon using national cancer registry data. For each cohort, we determined whether the percentage of all PDAC cases that arose from side-branch IPMNs (i.e., side-branch IPMN-associated PDAC cases) was clinically plausible using an upper limit of 10% to define plausibility, as estimated from the literature. Model assumptions and parameter uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Across all cohorts, percentages of side-branch IPMN-associated PDACs greatly exceeded 10%. In the base case (mean age = 55.7 years), 80% of PDAC cases arose from side-branch IPMNs (7877/9786). In the oldest cohort evaluated (mean age = 75 years), this estimate was 76% (14,227/18,714). In a secondary analysis, we found that if an upper limit threshold of 10% for side-branch IPMN-associated PDAC was imposed, the model-predicted rate of malignancy for side-branch IPMNs would be less than 0.24% over a 5-year time horizon, substantially lower than most literature-based estimates. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that reported malignancy risks associated with side-branch IPMNs are likely to be overestimates and imply the presence of verification bias.

Repeat CT Performed Within One Month of CT Conducted in the Emergency Department for Abdominal Pain: A Secondary Analysis of Data From a Prospective Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to determine both the frequency of repeat CT performed within 1 month after a patient visits the emergency department (ED) and undergoes CT evaluation for abdominal pain and the frequency of worsened or new CT-based diagnoses. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Secondary analysis was performed on data collected during a prospective multicenter study. The parent study included patients who underwent CT in the ED for abdominal pain between 2012 and 2014, and these patients constituted the study group of the present analysis. The proportion of patients who underwent (in any setting) repeat abdominal CT within 1 month of the index CT examination was calculated. For each of these patients, results of the index and repeat CT scans were compared by an independent panel and categorized as follows: no change (group 1); same process, improved (group 2); same process, worse (group 3); or different process (group 4). The proportion of patients in groups 1 and 2 versus groups 3 and 4 was calculated, and patient and ED physician characteristics were compared. RESULTS: The parent study included 544 patients (246 of whom were men [45%]; mean patient age, 49.4 years). Of those 544 patients, 53 (10%; 95% CI, 7.5-13%) underwent repeat abdominal CT. Patients' CT comparisons were categorized as follows: group 1 for 43% of patients (23/53), group 2 for 26% (14/53), group 3 for 15% (8/53), and group 4 for 15% (8/53). New or worse findings were present in 30% of patients (16/53) (95% CI, 19-44%). When patients with findings in groups 1 and 2 were compared to patients with findings in groups 3 and 4, no significant difference was noted in patient age (p = 0.25) or sex (p = 0.76), the number of days between scans (p = 0.98), and the diagnostic confidence of the ED physician after the index CT scan was obtained (p = 0.33). CONCLUSION: Short-term, repeat abdominal CT was performed for 10% of patients who underwent CT in the ED for abdominal pain, and it yielded new or worse findings for 30% of those patients.

What Patients Want to Know about Imaging Examinations: A Multiinstitutional U.S. Survey in Adult and Pediatric Teaching Hospitals on Patient Preferences for Receiving Information before Radiologic Examinations.

Purpose To identify what information patients and parents or caregivers found useful before an imaging examination, from whom they preferred to receive information, and how those preferences related to patient-specific variables including demographics and prior radiologic examinations. Materials and Methods A 24-item survey was distributed at three pediatric and three adult hospitals between January and May 2015. The χ2 or Fisher exact test (categorical variables) and one-way analysis of variance or two-sample t test (continuous variables) were used for comparisons. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine associations between responses and demographics. Results Of 1742 surveys, 1542 (89%) were returned (381 partial, 1161 completed). Mean respondent age was 46.2 years ± 16.8 (standard deviation), with respondents more frequently female (1025 of 1506, 68%) and Caucasian (1132 of 1504, 75%). Overall, 78% (1117 of 1438) reported receiving information about their examination most commonly from the ordering provider (824 of 1292, 64%), who was also the most preferred source (1005 of 1388, 72%). Scheduled magnetic resonance (MR) imaging or nuclear medicine examinations (P < .001 vs other examination types) and increasing education (P = .008) were associated with higher rates of receiving information. Half of respondents (757 of 1452, 52%) sought information themselves. The highest importance scores for pre-examination information (Likert scale ≥4) was most frequently assigned to information on examination preparation and least frequently assigned to whether an alternative radiation-free examination could be used (74% vs 54%; P < .001). Conclusion Delivery of pre-examination information for radiologic examinations is suboptimal, with half of all patients and caregivers seeking information on their own. Ordering providers are the predominant and preferred source of examination-related information, with respondents placing highest importance on information related to examination preparation. © RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Imaging Follow-up of Low-Risk Incidental Pancreas and Kidney Findings: Effects of Patient Age and Comorbidity on Projected Life Expectancy.

Purpose To determine the effects of patient age and comorbidity level on life expectancy (LE) benefits associated with imaging follow-up of Bosniak IIF renal cysts and pancreatic side-branch (SB) intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). Materials and Methods A decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate LE benefits was developed. Hypothetical cohorts with varied age (60-80 years) and comorbidities (none, mild, moderate, or severe) were evaluated. For each finding, LE projections from two strategies were compared: imaging follow-up and no imaging follow-up. Under follow-up, it was assumed that cancers associated with the incidental finding were successfully treated before they spread. For patients without follow-up, mortality risks from Bosniak IIF cysts (renal cell carcinoma) and SBIPMNs (pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma) were incorporated. Model assumptions and parameter uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analysis. Results In the youngest, healthiest cohorts (age, 60 years; no comorbidities), projected LE benefits from follow-up were as follows: Bosniak IIF cyst, 6.5 months (women) and 5.8 months (men); SBIPMN, 6.4 months (women) and 5.3 months (men). Follow-up of Bosniak IIF cysts in 60-year-old women with severe comorbidities yielded a LE benefit of 3.9 months; in 80-year-old women with no comorbidities, the benefit was 2.8 months, and with severe comorbidities the benefit was 1.5 months. Similar trends were observed in men and for SBIPMN. Results were sensitive to the performance of follow-up for cancer detection; malignancy risks; and stage at presentation of malignant, unfollowed Bosniak IIF cysts. Conclusion With progression of age and comorbidity level, follow-up of low-risk incidental findings yields increasingly limited benefits for patients. © RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Current Applications and Future Impact of Machine Learning in Radiology.

Recent advances and future perspectives of machine learning techniques offer promising applications in medical imaging. Machine learning has the potential to improve different steps of the radiology workflow including order scheduling and triage, clinical decision support systems, detection and interpretation of findings, postprocessing and dose estimation, examination quality control, and radiology reporting. In this article, the authors review examples of current applications of machine learning and artificial intelligence techniques in diagnostic radiology. In addition, the future impact and natural extension of these techniques in radiology practice are discussed.

Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model.

OBJECTIVES: To gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) METHODS: We revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection. RESULTS: We estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential future early detection strategies.

Modeling treatment outcomes for patients with advanced ovarian cancer: Projected benefits of a test to optimize treatment selection.

OBJECTIVE: For patients with advanced stage epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), substantial emphasis has been placed on diagnostic tests that can discern which of two treatment options - primary cytoreductive surgery (PCS) or neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by interval cytoreductive surgery (NACT+ICS) - optimizes patient-level outcomes. Our goal was to project potential life expectancy (LE) gains that could be achieved by use of such a test. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model to project LE for patients with stage IIIC EOC. We compared: a "standard-of-care" strategy, in which patients were triaged to PCS vs. NACT+ICS based on current clinical practice; and a "test" strategy, in which patients were triaged based on results of a hypothetical test. We identified those test performance characteristics for which the test strategy outperformed the standard-of-care strategy, from a LE standpoint. Effects of parameter uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Even with a perfect test, the LE gain was modest (LE with test vs. standard-of-care strategy=67.6 vs. 66.4months; LE gain=1.2months). In order to outperform the standard-of-care, the test had to have a high probability of correctly identifying "resectable" patients at PCS (i.e. those for whom complete or optimal cytoreduction would be possible); this test property was more important than correct triage of unresectable patients to NACT+ICS. Results were sensitive to the proportion of patients whose underlying disease was resectable at PCS. CONCLUSION: Diagnostic tests that are designed to triage patients with advanced stage EOC will likely have only a modest effect on LE.

Role of CT in the Diagnosis of Nonspecific Abdominal Pain: A Multicenter Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to determine whether specific patient and physician factors-known before CT-are associated with a diagnosis of nonspecific abdominal pain (NSAP) after CT in the emergency department (ED). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data originally collected in a prospective multicenter study. In the parent study, we identified ED patients referred to CT for evaluation of abdominal pain. We surveyed their physicians before and after CT to identify changes in leading diagnoses, diagnostic confidence, and admission decisions. In the current study, we conducted a multiple regression analysis to identify whether the following were associated with a post-CT diagnosis of NSAP: patient age; patient sex; physicians' years of experience; physicians' pre-CT diagnostic confidence; and physicians' pre-CT admission decision if CT had not been available. We analyzed patients with and those without a pre-CT diagnosis of NSAP separately. For the sensitivity analysis, we excluded patients with different physicians before and after CT. RESULTS: In total, 544 patients were included: 10% (52/544) with a pre-CT diagnosis of NSAP and 90% (492/544) with a pre-CT diagnosis other than NSAP. The leading diagnoses changed after CT in a large proportion of patients with a pre-CT diagnosis of NSAP (38%, 20/52). In regression analysis, we found that physicians' pre-CT diagnostic confidence was inversely associated with a post-CT diagnosis of NSAP in patients with a pre-CT diagnosis other than NSAP (p = 0.0001). No other associations were significant in both primary and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: With the exception of physicians' pre-CT diagnostic confidence, the factors evaluated were not associated with a post-CT diagnosis of NSAP.

Changes in Physician Decision Making after CT: A Prospective Multicenter Study in Primary Care Settings.

Purpose To determine the effect of computed tomography (CT) results on physician decision making in three common clinical scenarios in primary care. Materials and Methods This research was approved by the institutional review board (IRB) and was HIPAA compliant. All physicians consented to participate with an opt-in or opt-out mechanism; patient consent was waived with IRB approval. In this prospective multicenter observational study, outpatients referred by primary care providers (PCPs) for CT evaluation of abdominal pain, hematuria, or weight loss were identified. Prior to CT, PCPs were surveyed to elicit their leading diagnosis, confidence in that diagnosis (confidence range, 0%-100%), a rule-out diagnosis, and a management plan if CT were not available. Surveys were repeated after CT. Study measures were the proportion of patients in whom leading diagnoses and management changed (PCP management vs specialist referral vs emergency department transfer), median changes in diagnostic confidence, and the proportion of patients in whom CT addressed rule-out diagnoses. Regression analyses were used to identify associations between study measures and site and participant characteristics. Specifically, logistic regression analysis was used for binary study measures (change in leading diagnosis, change in management), and linear regression analysis was used for the continuous study measure (change in diagnostic confidence). Accrual began on September 5, 2012, and ended on June 28, 2014. Results In total, 91 PCPs completed pre- and post-CT surveys in 373 patients. In patients with abdominal pain, hematuria, or weight loss, leading diagnoses changed after CT in 53% (131 of 246), 49% (36 of 73), and 57% (27 of 47) of patients, respectively. Management changed in 35% (86 of 248), 27% (20 of 74), and 54% (26 of 48) of patients, respectively. Median absolute changes in diagnostic confidence were substantial and significant (+20%, +20%, and +19%, respectively; P ≤ .001 for all); median confidence after CT was high (90%, 88%, and 80%, respectively). PCPs reported CT was helpful in confirming or excluding rule-out diagnoses in 98% (184 of 187), 97% (59 of 61), and 97% (33 of 34) of patients, respectively. Significant associations between primary measures and site and participant characteristics were not identified. Conclusion Changes in PCP leading diagnoses and management after CT were common, and diagnostic confidence increased substantially. © RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

CT in the Emergency Department: A Real-Time Study of Changes in Physician Decision Making.

PURPOSE: To determine how physicians' diagnoses, diagnostic uncertainty, and management decisions are affected by the results of computed tomography (CT) in emergency department settings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was approved by the institutional review board and compliant with HIPAA. Data were collected between July 12, 2012, and January 13, 2014. The requirement to obtain patient consent was waived. In this prospective, four-center study, patients presenting to the emergency department who were referred for CT with abdominal pain, chest pain and/or dyspnea, or headache were identified. Physicians were surveyed before and after CT to determine the leading diagnosis, diagnostic confidence (on a scale of 0% to 100%), alternative "rule out" diagnosis, and management decisions. Primary measures were the proportion of patients for whom the leading diagnosis or admission decision changed and median changes in diagnostic confidence. Secondary measures addressed alternative diagnoses and return-to-care visits (eg, to emergency department) at 1-month follow-up. Regression analysis was used to identify associations between primary measures and site and participant characteristics. RESULTS: Both surveys were completed for 1280 patients by 245 physicians. The leading diagnosis changed in 235 of 460 patients with abdominal pain (51%), 163 of 387 with chest pain and/or dyspnea (42%), and 103 of 433 with headache (24%). Pre-CT diagnostic confidence was inversely associated with the likelihood of a diagnostic change (P < .0001). Median changes in confidence were substantial (increases of 25%, 20%, and 13%, respectively, for patients with abdominal pain, chest pain and/or dyspnea, and headache; P < .0001); median post-CT confidence was high (95% for all three groups). CT helped confirm or exclude at least 95% of alternative diagnoses. Admission decisions changed in 116 of 457 patients with abdominal pain (25%), 72 of 387 with chest pain and/or dyspnea (19%), and 81 of 426 with headache (19%). During follow-up, 70 of 450 patients with abdominal pain (15%), 53 of 387 with chest pain and/or dyspnea (14%), and 49 of 433 with headache (11%) returned for the same indication. In general, changes in leading diagnosis, diagnostic confidence, and admission decisions were not well explained with site or participant characteristics. CONCLUSION: Physicians' diagnoses and admission decisions changed frequently after CT, and diagnostic uncertainty was alleviated.

Tumor Anatomy Scoring and Renal Function for Nephron-Sparing Treatment Selection in Patients With Small Renal Masses: A Microsimulation-Based Decision Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to compare the effectiveness of a treatment algorithm for small renal tumors incorporating the nephrometry score, a renal tumor anatomy scoring system developed by urologists, with the current standard of uniformly recommended partial nephrectomy in patients with mild-to-moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed a state-transition microsimulation model to project life expectancy (LE) in hypothetic patients with baseline mild or moderate CKD undergoing treatment of small renal masses. Our model incorporated the nephrometry score, which is predictive of postsurgical renal function loss. The two tested strategies were uniform treatment with partial nephrectomy and selective treatment based on nephrometry score and CKD stage, including percutaneous ablation for CKD stages 2 or 3a and intermediate-to-high nephrometry score or stage 3b CKD and any nephrometry score; otherwise, partial nephrectomy was assumed for other CKD stages and nephrometry scores. The model accounted for benign and malignant lesions, renal function decline, recurrence, and metastatic disease rates specific to each treatment, mortality by CKD stage, and comorbidities. Sensitivity analysis tested the stability of results when varying key parameters. RESULTS: Selective treatment with partial nephrectomy resulted in an average LE benefit of 0.48 year (95% interpercentile range, 0.42-0.54 year) in 65-year-old men and 0.37 year (95% interpercentile range, 0.30-0.43 year) in 65-year-old women relative to nondiscriminatory surgery, due to worsening CKD and cardiovascular mortality associated with partial nephrectomy. Model results were most sensitive to the rate of renal function decline and CKD-related mortality. CONCLUSION: Nephron-sparing treatment selection for small renal masses based on nephrometry score may improve LE in patients with mild or moderate CKD.