Assessing the effect of interventions on the risk of cattle and sheep carrying Escherichia coli O157:H7 to the abattoir using a stochastic model.

Escherichia coli O157:H7 persists in being a threat to food safety. The mechanisms behind the spread of E. coli O157:H7 on the farm are complex and poorly understood. The objective of this study was to apply a Monte Carlo model, constructed to simulate the propagation of E. coli O157:H7 in cattle and sheep on the farm, to both test the effect of different interventions on the risk of animals carrying E. coli O157:H7 to the abattoir and to develop understanding of the underlying processes, including the identification of areas that could benefit from further research. An overview of the model including key assumptions is given. The output statistics from batches of 100 runs of the model were collected. From the model output, a cumulative frequency distribution of the prevalence and specific shedding level for the groups of cattle or sheep being sent to the abattoir were generated. Stochastic dominance was used to compare the results of the model outputs. Using the shorthand that "risk" means the likelihood of carrying E. coli O157:H7 to the abattoir, key conclusions from the study included: mixing sheep and cattle increases the risk in both groups; merging groups of animals of the same species into larger groups increases the risk substantially; increasing stocking density increases the risk independently of group size; decreasing the group size decreases the E. coli O157:H7 prevalence independently of stocking density; a very high level of barn hygiene reduces the risk; a shorter time between spreading farmyard manure and grazing and an increased background level of E. coli O157:H7 in the model increases the risk. The background level could be influenced by the presence of wild animals carrying the organism. The parameters to which the model is most sensitive are those related to transmission from grass and enclosures to animals, pathogen survival on grass, in slurry and in barns and contact between animals.

A comparison of three modelling approaches for quantitative risk assessment using the case study of Salmonella spp. in poultry meat.

A comprehensive review of both the scientific literature and industry practices was undertaken to identify and quantify all sources of contamination throughout the entire poultry meat production chain by Salmonella spp. This information was used to develop a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model for Salmonella in the production chain from the breeder farm to the chilled carcass. This was subsequently used as the basis on which to compare the merits of three approaches to QRA modelling in such systems. The original model used a Bayesian Network (BN). The second method was a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, a numerical Bayesian technique which retained a similar network structure but allowed further development, such as the separation of variability and uncertainty. The third method was a more detailed simulation model. The BN responds immediately to changes, such as entering evidence, because it does not use simulation and can propagate information from any point in the network to all others by Bayesian inference. However, it requires all the variables to be discrete, which introduces errors if continuous variables have to be discretized. These errors can accumulate. The MCMC approach does not require discrete variables while retaining some of the properties of the BN model, such as the ability to draw inferences from evidence. Finally, the simulation offers greater flexibility, such as consideration of the individual carcass, but may be more complex to implement as a result and sacrifices the ability to propagate evidence.

End tidal CO2 is an independent determinant of systolic blood pressure in women.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have shown that high resting end tidal CO2 (PECO2) is a marker for blood pressure sensitivity to high sodium intake by normotensive humans. The present study investigated the association of resting PECO2 with resting blood pressure in participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging (BLSA). DESIGN: PECO2 of 314 healthy participants (153 men and 161 women, aged 21-79 years) was measured by a respiratory gas monitor during 25 min of seated rest, and blood pressure every 5 min by an automated oscillometric system. The independent associations of PECO2 and other variables with systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure were analysed via multiple regression. Sex differences in age-associated changes in PECO2 and in the role of pulmonary capacity in the PECO2 -blood pressure relationships were also studied. RESULTS: Resting PECO2 was an independent predictor of SBP in women (beta = 0.215; P<0.0015; overall r2 = 0.27; P<0.0001), and accounted for more than 10% of the variance in SBP in women over age 50 years. No such associations of PECO2 with SBP of men, or with DBP of men or women, were observed. PECO2 was lower in younger women (36.0+/-0.9 mm Hg) than in younger men (40.4+/-2.0), but higher in older women (37.1+/-0.5) than in older men (35.5+/-0.4). CONCLUSIONS: PECO2 is an independent determinant of resting SBP in women, especially those aged 50 years or more. The origin of individual differences in resting PECO2 and its possible role in the development of chronic hypertension remain to be clarified.

High end tidal CO2 association with blood pressure response to sodium loading in older adults.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that blood pressure of older adults with high resting end tidal CO2 (PETCO2) is sensitive to high dietary intake of sodium chloride. DESIGN AND METHODS: Forty-four Caucasian men and women, aged 41-79 years (mean +/- SEM 55.5 +/- 1.4), restricted their dietary intake of sodium chloride for 11 days and ingested sodium chloride capsules (an additional 190 mmol sodium/day) during the last seven of those days. On days 1, 4 and 11, resting PETCO2 and blood pressure were monitored for 25 min in the laboratory, followed by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in the natural environment for 24 h. Overnight urine samples were obtained at days 4 and 11 to estimate excretion of sodium and of an endogenous digitalis-like factor (EDLF) that is sensitive to changes in plasma volume. RESULTS: Individual resting PETCO2 remained stable within and between laboratory monitoring sessions and was correlated with urinary excretion of the endogenous digitalis-like factor, both before and after the period of high sodium intake. The high-sodium diet was associated with increased urinary sodium excretion and body weight in all quartiles of PETCO2. The high-sodium diet produced significant increases in resting and in 24 h systolic blood pressures in the upper two quartiles of the PETCO2 distribution, and significant increases in resting and in 24 h diastolic blood pressures in the highest PETCO2 quartile only. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate blood pressure sensitivity to sodium loading is differentially associated with high resting PETCO2 in older adults. A high PETCO2 may be an index of a dynamic steady state that influences sodium transport mechanisms.

Racial differences in resting end-tidal CO2 and circulating sodium pump inhibitor.

Previous studies have shown that high end-tidal CO2 (PetCO2) is a marker for sodium sensitivity of blood pressure (BP) in White Americans, and that the BP of African Americans is more sensitive to high sodium intake than that of whites. The present study tested the hypothesis that resting PetCO2 is higher in normotensive African Americans than in whites. Resting end-tidal CO2 of 395 white and 125 African American participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging was monitored for 20 min with a respiratory gas monitor, and BP and heart rate were recorded every 5 min by oscillometric methodology. Twenty-four-hour urinary excretion of a circulating sodium pump inhibitor marinobufagenin-like compound (MBG), which increases when plasma volume is expanded, was also analyzed by fluoroimmunoassay in racial groups. Mean resting PetCO2 of African American men was higher than that of white men (38.1+/-0.5 v 36.4+/-0.3 mm Hg), and resting PetCO2 of African American women was higher than that of white women (37.7+/-0.3 v 36.2+/-0.3 mm Hg). The differences were not significant in either men or women less than 50 years old, but were substantial in both men and women more than 50 years. Twenty-four-hour urinary excretion of MBG was higher in white (2.7+/-0.2 pmol) than in African American (2.1+/-0.2 pmol) participants, and high PetCO2 was a significant independent predictor of high MBG excretion in African Americans. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that the higher resting PetCO2 in African Americans plays a role in slower urinary excretion of sodium, greater BP sensitivity to high sodium intake, and increased prevalence of chronic hypertension.

Post-fire uptake of nutrients by diverse ephemeral herbs in chamise chaparral.

Diverse populations of ephemeral herbs form the dominant element of community biomass in the first year of growth following a fall burn in chamise chaparral. Ephemeral herbs constituted 337 kg ha-1 of above-ground biomass after the first season of post-fire growth. This was 64% of the total, with the majority of the remaining biomass being in resprouts of Adenostoma fasciculatum. Ephemeral herb biomass following fire in other stands was as high as 1117 kg ha-1. Nutrient contents of ephemeral herbs were 6.68 kg N ha-1, 0.71 kg P ha-1, 10.05 kg K ha-1, 4.75 kg Ca ha-1 and 0.91 kg Mg ha-1. These were 55, 54, 81, 71 and 70% respectively of the above-ground totals. In the second year following fire, the total herb biomass was 40% higher, but the nutrient pool in above-ground biomass of these herbs was only 30-60% of what it had been the first year. Resprouts of A. fasciculatum and short-lived wood shrubs constituted more than 90% of above-ground biomass at this stage of postfire succession.

Population structure of Adenostoma fasciculatum in mature stands of chamise chaparral in the southern Sierra Nevada, California.

In the low elevation chaparral areas of Sequoia National Park, California, pure stands of chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) are periodically rejuvenated by fire. Mature stands showed considerable variability in density and total biomass even though a positive correlation exists between the two. Mature stands showed a preponderance of individuals in the smaller size classes (inverse-J shape distribution). Dead shrubs found in mature stands also tended to be in the smaller size classes. This relatively high mortality of small individuals is important to post-fire stand development. In addition, resprout and seedling biomass one year after fire both showed inverse-J shaped size-class structures. A positive correlation existed between the preburn basal area of a shrub and its first year resprout biomass. Shrub biomass and distance to nearest neighbor were poorly correlated. A significant correlation existed between stand density and a stand's variance-to-mean ratio, indicating a trend toward more regular spacing as density increases. Pre-burn and fire-induced mortality tended to move the stand towards a more clumped distribution. Seedlings replaced dead individuals after a fire and thus restored regular spacing.

Geostatistical analysis of the spatial distribution of mycotoxin concentration in bulk cereals.

Deoxynivalenol (DON) and ochratoxin A (OTA) in agricultural commodities present hazards to human and animal health. Bulk lots are routinely sampled for their presence, but it is widely acknowledged that designing sampling plans is particularly problematical because of the heterogeneous distribution of the mycotoxins. Previous studies have not explicitly looked at the interactions between the spatial distribution of the mycotoxin and the strategy used to take samples from bulk. Sampling plans are therefore designed on the assumption of random distributions. The objective of this study was to analyse the spatial distribution of DON and OTA in bulk commodities with geostatistics. This study was the first application of geostatistical analysis to data on mycotoxins contamination of bulk commodities. Data sets for DON and OTA in bulk storage were collected from the literature and personal communications, of which only one contained data suitable for geostatistical analysis. This data set represented a 26-tonne truck of wheat with a total of 100 sampled points. The mean concentrations of DON and OTA were 1342 and 0.59 microg kg(-1), respectively. The results showed that DON presented spatial structure, whilst OTA was randomly distributed in space. This difference between DON and OTA probably reflected the fact that DON is produced in the field, whereas OTA is produced in storage. The presence of spatial structure for DON implies that sampling plans need to consider the location of sample points in addition to the number of points sampled in order to obtain reliable estimates of quantities such as the mean contamination.

Resting end-tidal CO2 association with age, gender, and personality.

OBJECTIVES: A previous study found that individuals with blood pressure sensitivity to high sodium intake tend to have a high resting partial pressure of end-tidal CO2 (PetCO2). The present study analyzed the test-retest reliability of individual PetCO2 over 6 months, and the association of individual PetCO2 with age, gender, and personality characteristics. METHODS: PetCO2 of 104 men and women (mean ages 42.1+/-1.5 years) was monitored via a respiratory gas monitor for 25 minutes during each of three sessions over an 11-day interval, and 59 subjects also participated in a 25-minute follow-up session 261+/-10 days later. Each subject completed the NEO Personality Inventory. RESULTS: PetCO2 remained stable within and between monitoring sessions over a 6-month period. PetCO2 was higher in men than in women, and decreased progressively over the life span. PetCO2 was not correlated with the Extraversion, Openness, Agreeableness, or Conscientiousness Scales of the NEO Personality Inventory, but was highly positively associated with the Neuroticism Scale of the NEO Personality Inventory, and with its subscales. CONCLUSIONS: High resting end-tidal CO2 tends to be a stable individual characteristic that is accompanied by a tendency to worry and experience negative emotions.