Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover.

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

Preserving the woody plant tree of life in China under future climate and land-cover changes.

The tree of life (TOL) is severely threatened by climate and land-cover changes. Preserving the TOL is urgent, but has not been included in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Protected areas (PAs) are fundamental for biological conservation. However, we know little about the effectiveness of existing PAs in preserving the TOL of plants and how to prioritize PA expansion for better TOL preservation under future climate and land-cover changes. Here, using high-resolution distribution maps of 8732 woody species in China and phylogeny-based Zonation, we find that current PAs perform poorly in preserving the TOL both at present and in 2070s. The geographical coverage of TOL branches by current PAs is approx. 9%, and less than 3% of the identified priority areas for preserving the TOL are currently protected. Interestingly, the geographical coverage of TOL branches by PAs will be improved from 9% to 52-79% by the identified priority areas for PA expansion. Human pressures in the identified priority areas are high, leading to high cost for future PA expansion. We thus suggest that besides nature reserves and national parks, other effective area-based conservation measures should be considered. Our study argues for the inclusion of preserving the TOL in the post-2020 conservation framework, and provides references for decision-makers to preserve the Earth's evolutionary history.

Correlation of native and exotic species richness: a global meta-analysis finds no invasion paradox across scales.

Support for the "biotic resistance hypothesis," that species-rich communities are more successful at resisting invasion by exotic species than are species-poor communities, has long been debated. It has been argued that native-exotic richness relationships (NERR) are negative at small spatial scales and positive at large scales, but evidence for the role of spatial scale on NERR has been contradictory. However, no formal quantitative synthesis has previously examined whether NERR is scale-dependent across multiple studies, and previous studies on NERR have not distinguished spatial grain and extent, which may drive very different ecological processes. We used a global systematic review and hierarchical mixed-effects meta-analysis to provide a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the patterns of NERR over a range of spatial grain sizes and spatial extents, based on 204 individual cases of observational (non-experimental) NERRs from 101 publications. We show that NERR was indeed highly scale dependent across studies and increased with the log of grain size. However, mean NERR was not negative at any grain size, although there was high heterogeneity at small grain sizes. We found no clear patterns of NERR across different spatial extents, suggesting that extent plays a less important role in determining NERR than does grain, although there was a complex interaction between extent and grain size. Almost all studies on NERR were conducted in North America, western Europe, and a few other regions, with little information on tropical or Arctic regions. We did find that NERR increased northward in temperate regions and also varied with longitude. We discuss possible explanations for the patterns we found, and caution that our results do not show that invasive species are benign or have no negative consequences for biodiversity preservation. This study represents the first global quantitative analysis of scale-based NERR, and casts doubt on the existence of an "invasion paradox" of negative NERR at small scales and positive correlations at large scales in non-experimental studies.

Global multifaceted biodiversity patterns, centers, and conservation needs in angiosperms.

The Convention on Biological Diversity seeks to conserve at least 30% of global land and water areas by 2030, which is a challenge but also an opportunity to better preserve biodiversity, including flowering plants (angiosperms). Herein, we compiled a large database on distributions of over 300,000 angiosperm species and the key functional traits of 67,024 species. Using this database, we constructed biodiversity-environment models to predict global patterns of taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity in terrestrial angiosperms and provide a comprehensive mapping of the three diversity facets. We further evaluated the current protection status of the biodiversity centers of these diversity facets. Our results showed that geographical patterns of the three facets of plant diversity exhibited substantial spatial mismatches and nonoverlapping conservation priorities. Idiosyncratic centers of functional diversity, particularly of herbaceous species, were primarily distributed in temperate regions and under weaker protection compared with other biodiversity centers of taxonomic and phylogenetic facets. Our global assessment of multifaceted biodiversity patterns and centers highlights the insufficiency and unbalanced conservation among the three diversity facets and the two growth forms (woody vs. herbaceous), thus providing directions for guiding the future conservation of global plant diversity.

Incorporating global change reveals extinction risk beyond the current Red List.

Global changes over the past few decades have caused species distribution shifts and triggered population declines and local extinctions of many species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (Red List) is regarded as the most comprehensive tool for assessing species extinction risk and has been used at regional, national, and global scales. However, most Red Lists rely on the past and current status of species populations and distributions but do not adequately reflect the risks induced by future global changes. Using distribution maps of >4,000 endemic woody species in China, combined with ensembled species distribution models, we assessed the species threat levels under future climate and land-cover changes using the projected changes in species' suitable habitats and compared our updated Red List with China's existing Red List. We discover an increased number of threatened species in the updated Red List and increased threat levels of >50% of the existing threatened species compared with the existing one. Over 50% of the newly identified threatened species are not adequately covered by protected areas. The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, rather than the Hengduan Mountains, is the distribution center of threatened species on the updated Red Lists, as opposed to the threatened species on the existing Red List. Our findings suggest that using Red Lists without considering the impacts of future global changes will underestimate the extinction risks and lead to a biased estimate of conservation priorities, potentially limiting the ability to meet the Kunming-Montreal global conservation targets.

Global association of greenness exposure with risk of nervous system disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Nervous system disease (NSD) is a global health burden with increasing prevalence in the last 30 years. There is evidence that greenness can improve nervous system health through a variety of mechanisms; however, the evidence is inconsistent. In the present systematic review and meta-analysis, we examined the relationship between greenness exposure and NSD outcomes. Studies on the relationship between greenness and NSD health outcomes published till July 2022 were searched in PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science. In addition, we searched the cited literature and updated our search on Jan 20, 2023, to identify any new studies. We included human epidemiological studies that assess the association of greenness exposure with the risk of NSD. Greenness exposure was measured using NDVI (the normalized difference vegetation index) and the outcome was the mortality or morbidity of NSD. The pooled relative risks (RRs) were estimated using a random effects model. Of 2059 identified studies, 15 studies were included in our quantitative evaluation, in which 11 studies found a significant inverse relationship between the risk of NSD mortality or incidence/prevalence and an increase in surrounding greenness. The pooled RRs for cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD), neurodegenerative diseases (ND), and stroke mortality were 0.98 (95 % CI: 0.97, 1.00), 0.98 (95 % CI: 0.98, 0.99), and 0.96 (95 % CI: 0.93, 1.00), respectively. The pooled RRs for PD incidence and stroke prevalence/incidence were 0.89 (95 % CI: 0.78, 1.02) and 0.98 (95 % CI: 0.97, 0.99), respectively. The confidence of evidence for ND mortality, stroke mortality, and stroke prevalence/incidence was downgraded to "low", while CBVD mortality and PD incidence were downgraded to "very low" due to inconsistency. We found no evidence of publication bias and the sensitivity analysis results of all subgroups are robust except for the stroke mortality subgroup. This is the first comprehensive meta-analysis of greenness exposure and NSD outcomes in which an inverse relationship was observed. It is necessary to conduct further research to ascertain the role greenness exposure plays in various NSDs and the management of greenness should be considered a public health strategy.

Effects of Climate, Plant Height, and Evolutionary Age on Geographical Patterns of Fruit Type.

Fruit type is a key reproductive trait associated with plant evolution and adaptation. However, large-scale geographical patterns in fruit type composition and the mechanisms driving these patterns remain to be established. Contemporary environment, plant functional traits and evolutionary age may all influence fruit type composition, while their relative importance remains unclear. Here, using data on fruit types, plant height and distributions of 28,222 (∼ 90.1%) angiosperm species in China, we analyzed the geographical patterns in the proportion of fleshy-fruited species for all angiosperms, trees, shrubs, and herbaceous species separately, and compared the relative effects of contemporary climate, ecosystem primary productivity, plant height, and evolutionary age on these patterns. We found that the proportion of fleshy-fruited species per grid cell for all species and different growth forms all showed significant latitudinal patterns, being the highest in southeastern China. Mean plant height per grid cell and actual evapotranspiration (AET) representing ecosystem primary productivity were the strongest drivers of geographical variations in the proportion of fleshy-fruited species, but their relative importance varied between growth forms. From herbaceous species to shrubs and trees, the relative effects of mean plant height decreased. Mean genus age had significant yet consistently weaker effects on proportion of fleshy-fruited species than mean plant height and AET, and environmental temperature and precipitation contributed to those of only trees and shrubs. These results suggest that biotic and environmental factors and evolutionary age of floras jointly shape the pattern in proportion of fleshy-fruited species, and improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying geographical variations in fruit type composition. Our study also demonstrates the need of integrating multiple biotic and abiotic factors to fully understand the drivers of large-scale patterns of plant reproductive traits.

Upward shift and elevational range contractions of subtropical mountain plants in response to climate change.

Elevational range shifts of mountain species in response to climate change have profound impact on mountain biodiversity. However, current evidence indicates great controversies in the direction and magnitude of elevational range shifts across species and regions. Here, using historical and recent occurrence records of 83 plant species in a subtropical mountain, Mt. Gongga (Sichuan, China), we evaluated changes in species elevation centroids and limits (upper and lower) along elevational gradients, and explored the determinants of elevational changes. We found that 63.9% of the species shifted their elevation centroids upward, while 22.9% shifted downward. The changes in centroid elevations and range size were more strongly correlated with changes in lower than upper limits of species elevational ranges. The magnitude of centroid elevation shifts was larger than predicted by climate warming and precipitation changes. Our results show complex changes in species elevational distributions and range sizes in Mt. Gongga, and that climate change, species traits and climate adaptation of species all influenced their elevational movement. As Mt. Gongga is one of the global biodiversity hotspots, and contains many threatened plant species, these findings provide support to future conservation planning.

Effects of elevated mean and extremely high temperatures on the physio-ecological characteristics of geographically distinctive populations of Cunninghamia lanceolata.

Conventional models for predicting species distribution under global warming scenarios often treat one species as a homogeneous whole. In the present study, we selected Cunninghamia lanceolata (C. lanceolata), a widely distributed species in China, to investigate the physio-ecological responses of five populations under different temperature regimes. The results demonstrate that increased mean temperatures induce increased growth performance among northern populations, which exhibited the greatest germination capacity and largest increase in the overlap between the growth curve and the monthly average temperature. However,tolerance of the southern population to extremely high temperatures was stronger than among the population from the northern region,shown by the best growth and the most stable photosynthetic system of the southern population under extremely high temperature. This result indicates that the growth advantage among northern populations due to increased mean temperatures may be weakened by lower tolerance to extremely high temperatures. This finding is antithetical to the predicted results. The theoretical coupling model constructed here illustrates that the difference in growth between populations at high and low latitudes and altitudes under global warming will decrease because of the frequent occurrence of extremely high temperatures.