Five decades of northern land carbon uptake revealed by the interhemispheric CO2 gradient.

The global land and ocean carbon sinks have increased proportionally with increasing carbon dioxide emissions during the past decades1. It is thought that Northern Hemisphere lands make a dominant contribution to the global land carbon sink2-7; however, the long-term trend of the northern land sink remains uncertain. Here, using measurements of the interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 1958 to 2016, we show that the northern land sink remained stable between the 1960s and the late 1980s, then increased by 0.5 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year during the 1990s and by 0.6 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon per year during the 2000s. The increase of the northern land sink in the 1990s accounts for 65% of the increase in the global land carbon flux during that period. The subsequent increase in the 2000s is larger than the increase in the global land carbon flux, suggesting a coincident decrease of carbon uptake in the Southern Hemisphere. Comparison of our findings with the simulations of an ensemble of terrestrial carbon models5,8 over the same period suggests that the decadal change in the northern land sink between the 1960s and the 1990s can be explained by a combination of increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate variability and changes in land cover. However, the increase during the 2000s is underestimated by all models, which suggests the need for improved consideration of changes in drivers such as nitrogen deposition, diffuse light and land-use change. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of Northern Hemispheric land as a carbon sink.

Mapping tree density at a global scale.

The global extent and distribution of forest trees is central to our understanding of the terrestrial biosphere. We provide the first spatially continuous map of forest tree density at a global scale. This map reveals that the global number of trees is approximately 3.04 trillion, an order of magnitude higher than the previous estimate. Of these trees, approximately 1.39 trillion exist in tropical and subtropical forests, with 0.74 trillion in boreal regions and 0.61 trillion in temperate regions. Biome-level trends in tree density demonstrate the importance of climate and topography in controlling local tree densities at finer scales, as well as the overwhelming effect of humans across most of the world. Based on our projected tree densities, we estimate that over 15 billion trees are cut down each year, and the global number of trees has fallen by approximately 46% since the start of human civilization.

Relatively stable response of fruiting stage to warming and cooling relative to other phenological events.

The timing of the fruit-set stage (i.e., start and end of fruit set) is crucial in a plant's life cycle, but its response to temperature change is still unclear. We investigated the timing of seven phenological events, including fruit-set dates during 3 yr for six alpine plants transplanted to warmer (approximately +3.5°C in soils) and cooler (approximately -3.5°C in soils) locations along an altitudinal gradient in the Tibetan area. We found that fruit-set dates remained relatively stable under both warming and cooling during the 3-yr transplant experiment. Three earlier phenological events (emergence of first leaf, first bud set, and first flowering) and two later phenological events (first leaf coloring and complete leaf coloring) were earlier by 4.8-8.2 d/°C and later by 3.2-7.1 d/°C in response to warming. Conversely, cooling delayed the three earlier events by 3.8-6.9 d/°C and advanced the two later events by 3.2-8.1 d/°C for all plant species. The timing of the first and/or last fruit-set dates, however, did not change significantly compared to earlier and later phenological events. Statistical analyses also showed that the dates of fruit set were not significantly correlated or had lower correlations with changes of soil temperature relative to the earlier and later phenological events. Alpine plants may thus acclimate to changes in temperature for their fruiting function by maintaining relatively stable timings of fruit set compared with other phenological events to maximize the success of seed maturation and dispersal in response to short-term warming or cooling.

Fertile forests produce biomass more efficiently.

Trees with sufficient nutrition are known to allocate carbon preferentially to aboveground plant parts. Our global study of 49 forests revealed an even more fundamental carbon allocation response to nutrient availability: forests with high-nutrient availability use 58 ± 3% (mean ± SE; 17 forests) of their photosynthates for plant biomass production (BP), while forests with low-nutrient availability only convert 42 ± 2% (mean ± SE; 19 forests) of annual photosynthates to biomass. This nutrient effect largely overshadows previously observed differences in carbon allocation patterns among climate zones, forest types and age classes. If forests with low-nutrient availability use 16 ± 4% less of their photosynthates for plant growth, what are these used for? Current knowledge suggests that lower BP per unit photosynthesis in forests with low- versus forests with high-nutrient availability reflects not merely an increase in plant respiration, but likely results from reduced carbon allocation to unaccounted components of net primary production, particularly root symbionts.

Improvement of the Irrigation Scheme in the ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model and Impacts of Irrigation on Regional Water Budgets Over China.

In China, irrigation is widespread in 40.7% cropland to sustain crop yields. By its action on water cycle, irrigation affects water resources and local climate. In this study, a new irrigation module, including flood and paddy irrigation technologies, was developed in the ORCHIDEE-CROP land surface model which describes crop phenology and growth in order to estimate irrigation demands over China from 1982 to 2014. Three simulations were performed including NI (no irrigation), IR (with irrigation limited by local water resources), and FI (with irrigation demand fulfilled). Observations and census data were used to validate the simulations. Results showed that the estimated irrigation water withdrawal ( W ) based on IR and FI scenarios bracket statistical W with fair spatial agreements ( r = 0 . 68 ± 0 . 07 ; p < 0 . 01 ). Improving irrigation efficiency was found to be the dominant factor leading to the observed W decrease. By comparing simulated total water storage (TWS) with GRACE observations, we found that simulated TWS with irrigation well explained the TWS variation over China. However, our simulation overestimated the seasonality of TWS in the Yangtze River Basin due to ignoring regulation of artificial reservoirs. The observed TWS decrease in the Yellow River Basin caused by groundwater depletion was not totally captured in our simulation, but it can be inferred by combining simulated TWS with census data. Moreover, we demonstrated that land use change tended to drive W locally but had little effect on total W over China due to water resources limitation.

Atmospheric deposition, CO2, and change in the land carbon sink.

Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) have continued to increase whereas atmospheric deposition of sulphur and nitrogen has declined in Europe and the USA during recent decades. Using time series of flux observations from 23 forests distributed throughout Europe and the USA, and generalised mixed models, we found that forest-level net ecosystem production and gross primary production have increased by 1% annually from 1995 to 2011. Statistical models indicated that increasing atmospheric CO2 was the most important factor driving the increasing strength of carbon sinks in these forests. We also found that the reduction of sulphur deposition in Europe and the USA lead to higher recovery in ecosystem respiration than in gross primary production, thus limiting the increase of carbon sequestration. By contrast, trends in climate and nitrogen deposition did not significantly contribute to changing carbon fluxes during the studied period. Our findings support the hypothesis of a general CO2-fertilization effect on vegetation growth and suggest that, so far unknown, sulphur deposition plays a significant role in the carbon balance of forests in industrialized regions. Our results show the need to include the effects of changing atmospheric composition, beyond CO2, to assess future dynamics of carbon-climate feedbacks not currently considered in earth system/climate modelling.

The carbon balance of Africa: synthesis of recent research studies.

The African continent contributes one of the largest uncertainties to the global CO(2) budget, because very few long-term measurements are carried out in this region. The contribution of Africa to the global carbon cycle is characterized by its low fossil fuel emissions, a rapidly increasing population causing cropland expansion, and degradation and deforestation risk to extensive dryland and savannah ecosystems and to tropical forests in Central Africa. A synthesis of the carbon balance of African ecosystems is provided at different scales, including observations of land-atmosphere CO(2) flux and soil carbon and biomass carbon stocks. A review of the most recent estimates of the net long-term carbon balance of African ecosystems is provided, including losses from fire disturbance, based upon observations, giving a sink of the order of 0.2 Pg C yr(-1) with a large uncertainty around this number. By comparison, fossil fuel emissions are only of the order of 0.2 Pg C yr(-1) and land-use emissions are of the order of 0.24 Pg C yr(-1). The sources of year-to-year variations in the ecosystem carbon-balance are also discussed. Recommendations for the deployment of a coordinated carbon-monitoring system for African ecosystems are given.