Does 'net zero' mean zero cows?

A significant share of anthropogenic global warming comes from livestock production. There is debate about whether there can be any role for livestock in a climatically sustainable future; the debate is particularly heated for cows and sheep, largely due to the methane they burp out. However, short-lived gases like methane affect climate in a fundamentally different way than long-lived gases like carbon dioxide. Consequently, climate stabilization does not require zeroing-out cattle herds. But this doesn't mean we can eat our beef and have it (a tolerable climate) too-livestock still contribute to global warming. Preventing or limiting future growth in livestock-related emissions can represent a sensible part of the portfolio of responses to the climate crisis, particularly when carbon dioxide emissions are not on track to reach net zero sufficiently quickly.

Are single global warming potential impact assessments adequate for carbon footprints of agri-food systems?

The vast majority of agri-food climate-based sustainability analyses use global warming potential (GWP100) as an impact assessment, usually in isolation; however, in recent years, discussions have criticised the 'across-the-board' application of GWP100 in Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs), particularly of food systems which generate large amounts of methane (CH4) and considered whether reporting additional and/or alternative metrics may be more applicable to certain circumstances or research questions (e.g. Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP)). This paper reports a largescale sensitivity analysis using a pasture-based beef production system (a high producer of CH4 emissions) as an exemplar to compare various climatatic impact assessments: CO2-equivalents using GWP100 and GTP100, and 'CO2-warming-equivalents' using 'GWP Star', or GWP*. The inventory for this system was compiled using data from the UK Research and Innovation National Capability, the North Wyke Farm Platform, in Devon, SW England. LCAs can have an important bearing on: (i) policymakers' decisions; (ii) farmer management decisions; (iii) consumers' purchasing habits; and (iv) wider perceptions of whether certain activities can be considered 'sustainable' or not; it is, therefore, the responsibility of LCA practitioners and scientists to ensure that subjective decisions are tested as robustly as possible through appropriate sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We demonstrate herein that the choice of climate impact assessment has dramatic effects on interpretation, with GWP100 and GTP100 producing substantially different results due to their different treatments of CH4 in the context of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents. Given its dynamic nature and previously proven strong correspondence with climate models, out of the three assessments covered, GWP* provides the most complete coverage of the temporal evolution of temperature change for different greenhouse gas emissions. We extend previous discussions on the limitations of static emission metrics and encourage LCA practitioners to consider due care and attention where additional information or dynamic approaches may prove superior, scientifically speaking, particularly in cases of decision support.

CO2 Ocean Bistability on Terrestrial Exoplanets.

Cycling of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and interior of rocky planets can stabilize global climate and enable planetary surface temperatures above freezing over geologic time. However, variations in global carbon budget and unstable feedback cycles between planetary sub-systems may destabilize the climate of rocky exoplanets toward regimes unknown in the Solar System. Here, we perform clear-sky atmospheric radiative transfer and surface weathering simulations to probe the stability of climate equilibria for rocky, ocean-bearing exoplanets at instellations relevant for planetary systems in the outer regions of the circumstellar habitable zone. Our simulations suggest that planets orbiting G- and F-type stars (but not M-type stars) may display bistability between an Earth-like climate state with efficient carbon sequestration and an alternative stable climate equilibrium where CO2 condenses at the surface and forms a blanket of either clathrate hydrate or liquid CO2. At increasing instellation and with ineffective weathering, the latter state oscillates between cool, surface CO2-condensing and hot, non-condensing climates. CO2 bistable climates may emerge early in planetary history and remain stable for billions of years. The carbon dioxide-condensing climates follow an opposite trend in pCO2 versus instellation compared to the weathering-stabilized planet population, suggesting the possibility of observational discrimination between these distinct climate categories.

Agriculture's Contribution to Climate Change and Role in Mitigation Is Distinct From Predominantly Fossil CO2-Emitting Sectors.

Agriculture is a significant contributor to anthropogenic global warming, and reducing agricultural emissions-largely methane and nitrous oxide-could play a significant role in climate change mitigation. However, there are important differences between carbon dioxide (CO2), which is a stock pollutant, and methane (CH4), which is predominantly a flow pollutant. These dynamics mean that conventional reporting of aggregated CO2-equivalent emission rates is highly ambiguous and does not straightforwardly reflect historical or anticipated contributions to global temperature change. As a result, the roles and responsibilities of different sectors emitting different gases are similarly obscured by the common means of communicating emission reduction scenarios using CO2-equivalence. We argue for a shift in how we report agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and think about their mitigation to better reflect the distinct roles of different greenhouse gases. Policy-makers, stakeholders, and society at large should also be reminded that the role of agriculture in climate mitigation is a much broader topic than climate science alone can inform, including considerations of economic and technical feasibility, preferences for food supply and land-use, and notions of fairness and justice. A more nuanced perspective on the impacts of different emissions could aid these conversations.

Vertically Resolved Magma Ocean-Protoatmosphere Evolution: H2, H2O, CO2, CH4, CO, O2, and N2 as Primary Absorbers.

The earliest atmospheres of rocky planets originate from extensive volatile release during magma ocean epochs that occur during assembly of the planet. These establish the initial distribution of the major volatile elements between different chemical reservoirs that subsequently evolve via geological cycles. Current theoretical techniques are limited in exploring the anticipated range of compositional and thermal scenarios of early planetary evolution, even though these are of prime importance to aid astronomical inferences on the environmental context and geological history of extrasolar planets. Here, we present a coupled numerical framework that links an evolutionary, vertically resolved model of the planetary silicate mantle with a radiative-convective model of the atmosphere. Using this method, we investigate the early evolution of idealized Earth-sized rocky planets with end-member, clear-sky atmospheres dominated by either H2, H2O, CO2, CH4, CO, O2, or N2. We find central metrics of early planetary evolution, such as energy gradient, sequence of mantle solidification, surface pressure, or vertical stratification of the atmosphere, to be intimately controlled by the dominant volatile and outgassing history of the planet. Thermal sequences fall into three general classes with increasing cooling timescale: CO, N2, and O2 with minimal effect, H2O, CO2, and CH4 with intermediate influence, and H2 with several orders of magnitude increase in solidification time and atmosphere vertical stratification. Our numerical experiments exemplify the capabilities of the presented modeling framework and link the interior and atmospheric evolution of rocky exoplanets with multiwavelength astronomical observations.

High levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide necessary for the termination of global glaciation.

The possibility that the Earth suffered episodes of global glaciation as recently as the Neoproterozoic period, between about 900 and 543 million years ago, has been widely discussed. Termination of such 'hard snowball Earth' climate states has been proposed to proceed from accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Many salient aspects of the snowball scenario depend critically on the threshold of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations needed to trigger deglaciation. Here I present simulations with a general circulation model, using elevated carbon dioxide levels to estimate this deglaciation threshold. The model simulates several phenomena that are expected to be significant in a 'snowball Earth' scenario, but which have not been considered in previous studies with less sophisticated models, such as a reduction of vertical temperature gradients in winter, a reduction in summer tropopause height, the effect of snow cover and a reduction in cloud greenhouse effects. In my simulations, the system remains far short of deglaciation even at atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 550 times the present levels (0.2 bar of CO2). I find that at much higher carbon dioxide levels, deglaciation is unlikely unless unknown feedback cycles that are not captured in the model come into effect.

Demonstrating GWP*: a means of reporting warming-equivalent emissions that captures the contrasting impacts of short- and longlived climate pollutants.

The atmospheric lifetime and radiative impacts of different climate pollutants can both differ markedly, so metrics that equate emissions using a single scaling factor, such as the 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100), can be misleading. An alternative approach is to report emissions as 'warming-equivalents' that result in similar warming impacts without requiring a like-for-like weighting per emission. GWP*, an alternative application of GWPs where the CO2-equivalence of short-lived climate pollutant emissions is predominantly determined by changes in their emission rate, provides a straightforward means of generating warming-equivalent emissions. In this letter we illustrate the contrasting climate impacts resulting from emissions of methane, a short-lived greenhouse gas, and CO2, and compare GWP100 and GWP* CO2-equivalents for a number of simple emissions scenarios. We demonstrate that GWP* provides a useful indication of warming, while conventional application of GWP100 falls short in many scenarios and particularly when methane emissions are stable or declining, with important implications for how we consider 'zero emission' or 'climate neutral' targets for sectors emitting different compositions of gases. We then illustrate how GWP* can provide an improved means of assessing alternative mitigation strategies. GWP* allows warming-equivalent emissions to be calculated directly from CO2-equivalent emissions reported using GWP100, consistent with the Paris Rulebook agreed by the UNFCCC, on condition that short-lived and cumulative climate pollutants are aggregated separately, which is essential for transparency. It provides a direct link between emissions and anticipated warming impacts, supporting stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal and compatible with cumulative emissions budgets.

Climate impacts of cultured meat and beef cattle.

Improved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission efficiency of production has been proposed as one of the biggest potential advantages of cultured meat over conventional livestock production systems. Comparisons with beef are typically highlighted, as it is a highly emissions intensive food product. In this study we present a more rigorous comparison of the potential climate impacts of cultured meat and cattle production than has previously been made. Warming impacts are evaluated using a simple climate model that simulates the different behaviours of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), rather than relying on carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) metrics. We compare the temperature impact of beef cattle and cultured meat production at all times to 1000 years in the future, using four synthetic meat GHG footprints currently available in the literature and three different beef production systems studied in an earlier climate modelling paper. Cattle systems are associated with the production of all three GHGs above, including significant emissions of CH4, while cultured meat emissions are almost entirely CO2 from energy generation. Under continuous high global consumption, cultured meat results in less warming than cattle initially, but this gap narrows in the long term and in some cases cattle production causes far less warming, as CH4 emissions do not accumulate, unlike CO2. We then model a decline in meat consumption to more sustainable levels following high consumption, and show that although cattle systems generally result in greater peak warming than cultured meat, the warming effect declines and stabilises under the new emission rates of cattle systems, while the CO2 based warming from cultured meat persists and accumulates even under reduced consumption, again overtaking cattle production in some scenarios. We conclude that cultured meat is not prima facie climatically superior to cattle production; its relative impact instead depends on the availability of decarbonised energy generation and the specific production systems that are realised.

Dynamics of atmospheres with a non-dilute condensible component.

The diversity of characteristics for the host of recently discovered exoplanets opens up a great deal of fertile new territory for geophysical fluid dynamics, particularly when the fluid flow is coupled to novel thermodynamics, radiative transfer or chemistry. In this paper, we survey one of these new areas-the climate dynamics of atmospheres with a non-dilute condensible component, defined as the situation in which a condensible component of the atmosphere makes up a substantial fraction of the atmospheric mass within some layer. Non-dilute dynamics can occur for a wide range of condensibles, generically applying near both the inner and the outer edges of the conventional habitable zone and in connection with runaway greenhouse phenomena. It also applies in a wide variety of other planetary circumstances. We first present a number of analytical results developing some key features of non-dilute atmospheres, and then show how some of these features are manifest in simulations with a general circulation model adapted to handle non-dilute atmospheres. We find that non-dilute atmospheres have weak horizontal temperature gradients even for rapidly rotating planets, and that their circulations are largely barotropic. The relative humidity of the condensible component tends towards 100% as the atmosphere becomes more non-dilute, which has important implications for runaway greenhouse thresholds. Non-dilute atmospheres exhibit a number of interesting organized convection features, for which there is not yet any adequate theoretical understanding.

Decay of passive scalars under the action of single scale smooth velocity fields in bounded two-dimensional domains: from non-self-similar probability distribution functions to self-similar eigenmodes.

We examine the decay of passive scalars with small, but nonzero, diffusivity in bounded two-dimensional (2D) domains. The velocity fields responsible for advection are smooth (i.e., they have bounded gradients) and of a single large scale. Moreover, the scale of the velocity field is taken to be similar to the size of the entire domain. The importance of the initial scale of variation of the scalar field with respect to that of the velocity field is strongly emphasized. If these scales are comparable and the velocity field is time periodic, we see the formation of a periodic scalar eigenmode. The eigenmode is numerically realized by means of a deterministic 2D map on a lattice. Analytical justification for the eigenmode is available from theorems in the dynamo literature. Weakening the notion of an eigenmode to mean statistical stationarity, we provide numerical evidence that the eigenmode solution also holds for aperiodic flows (represented by random maps). Turning to the evolution of an initially small scale scalar field, we demonstrate the transition from an evolving (i.e., non-self-similar) probability distribution function (pdf) to a stationary (self-similar) pdf as the scale of variation of the scalar field progresses from being small to being comparable to that of the velocity field (and of the domain). Furthermore, the non-self-similar regime itself consists of two stages. Both stages are examined and the coupling between diffusion and the distribution of the finite time Lyapunov exponents is shown to be responsible for the pdf evolution.

Lattice models of advection-diffusion.

We present a synthesis of theoretical results concerning the probability distribution of the concentration of a passive tracer subject to both diffusion and to advection by a spatially smooth time-dependent flow. The freely decaying case is contrasted with the equilibrium case. A computationally efficient model of advection-diffusion on a lattice is introduced, and used to test and probe the limits of the theoretical ideas. It is shown that the probability distribution for the freely decaying case has fat tails, which have slower than exponential decay. The additively forced case has a Gaussian core and exponential tails, in full conformance with prior theoretical expectations. An analysis of the magnitude and implications of temporal fluctuations of the conditional diffusion and dissipation is presented, showing the importance of these fluctuations in governing the shape of the tails. Some results concerning the probability distribution of dissipation, and concerning the spatial scaling properties of concentration fluctuation, are also presented. Though the lattice model is applied only to smooth flow in the present work, it is readily applicable to problems involving rough flow, and to chemically reacting tracers. (c) 2000 American Institute of Physics.

Surface quasigeostrophic turbulence: The study of an active scalar.

We study the statistical and geometrical properties of the potential temperature (PT) field in the surface quasigeostrophic (SQG) system of equations. In addition to extracting information in a global sense via tools such as the power spectrum, the g-beta spectrum, and the structure functions we explore the local nature of the PT field by means of the wavelet transform method. The primary indication is that an initially smooth PT field becomes rough (within specified scales), though in a qualitatively sparse fashion. Similarly, initially one-dimensional iso-PT contours (i.e., PT level sets) are seen to acquire a fractal nature. Moreover, the dimensions of the iso-PT contours satisfy existing analytical bounds. The expectation that the roughness will manifest itself in the singular nature of the gradient fields is confirmed via the multifractal nature of the dissipation field. Following earlier work on the subject, the singular and oscillatory nature of the gradient field is investigated by examining the scaling of a probability measure and a sign singular measure, respectively. A physically motivated derivation of the relations between the variety of scaling exponents is presented, the aim being to bring out some of the underlying assumptions which seem to have gone unnoticed in previous presentations. Apart from concentrating on specific properties of the SQG system, a broader theme of the paper is a comparison of the diagnostic inertial range properties of the SQG system with both the two- and three-dimensional Euler equations. (c) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Hydrogen-nitrogen greenhouse warming in Earth's early atmosphere.

Understanding how Earth has sustained surface liquid water throughout its history remains a key challenge, given that the Sun's luminosity was much lower in the past. Here we show that with an atmospheric composition consistent with the most recent constraints, the early Earth would have been significantly warmed by H(2)-N(2) collision-induced absorption. With two to three times the present-day atmospheric mass of N(2) and a H(2) mixing ratio of 0.1, H(2)-N(2) warming would be sufficient to raise global mean surface temperatures above 0°C under 75% of present-day solar flux, with CO(2) levels only 2 to 25 times the present-day values. Depending on their time of emergence and diversification, early methanogens may have caused global cooling via the conversion of H(2) and CO(2) to CH(4), with potentially observable consequences in the geological record.

The effect of host star spectral energy distribution and ice-albedo feedback on the climate of extrasolar planets.

Planetary climate can be affected by the interaction of the host star spectral energy distribution with the wavelength-dependent reflectivity of ice and snow. In this study, we explored this effect with a one-dimensional (1-D), line-by-line, radiative transfer model to calculate broadband planetary albedos as input to a seasonally varying, 1-D energy balance climate model. A three-dimensional (3-D) general circulation model was also used to explore the atmosphere's response to changes in incoming stellar radiation, or instellation, and surface albedo. Using this hierarchy of models, we simulated planets covered by ocean, land, and water-ice of varying grain size, with incident radiation from stars of different spectral types. Terrestrial planets orbiting stars with higher near-UV radiation exhibited a stronger ice-albedo feedback. We found that ice extent was much greater on a planet orbiting an F-dwarf star than on a planet orbiting a G-dwarf star at an equivalent flux distance, and that ice-covered conditions occurred on an F-dwarf planet with only a 2% reduction in instellation relative to the present instellation on Earth, assuming fixed CO(2) (present atmospheric level on Earth). A similar planet orbiting the Sun at an equivalent flux distance required an 8% reduction in instellation, while a planet orbiting an M-dwarf star required an additional 19% reduction in instellation to become ice-covered, equivalent to 73% of the modern solar constant. The reduction in instellation must be larger for planets orbiting cooler stars due in large part to the stronger absorption of longer-wavelength radiation by icy surfaces on these planets in addition to stronger absorption by water vapor and CO(2) in their atmospheres, which provides increased downwelling longwave radiation. Lowering the IR and visible-band surface ice and snow albedos for an M-dwarf planet increased the planet's climate stability against changes in instellation and slowed the descent into global ice coverage. The surface ice-albedo feedback effect becomes less important at the outer edge of the habitable zone, where atmospheric CO(2) could be expected to be high such that it maintains clement conditions for surface liquid water. We showed that ∼3-10 bar of CO(2) will entirely mask the climatic effect of ice and snow, leaving the outer limits of the habitable zone unaffected by the spectral dependence of water ice and snow albedo. However, less CO(2) is needed to maintain open water for a planet orbiting an M-dwarf star than would be the case for hotter main-sequence stars.

Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization.

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO(2) concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO(2) emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO(2) relative to other major climate forcing agents.

The dynamics behind Titan's methane clouds.

We present results of an axisymmetric global circulation model of Titan with a simplified suite of atmospheric physics forced by seasonally varying insolation. The recent discovery of midlatitude tropospheric clouds on Titan has caused much excitement about the roles of surface sources of methane and the global circulation in forming clouds. Although localized surface sources, such as methane geysers or "cryovolcanoes," have been invoked to explain these clouds, we find in this work that clouds appear in regions of convergence by the mean meridional circulation and over the poles during solstices, where the solar forcing reaches its seasonal maximum. Other regions are inhibited from forming clouds because of dynamical transports of methane and strong subsidence. We find that for a variety of moist regimes, i.e., with the effect of methane thermodynamics included, the observed cloud features can be explained by the large-scale dynamics of the atmosphere. Clouds at the solsticial pole are found to be a robust feature of Titan's dynamics, whereas isolated midlatitude clouds are present exclusively in a variety of moist dynamical regimes. In all cases, even without including methane thermodynamics, our model ceases to produce polar clouds approximately 4-6 terrestrial years after solstices.

The hydrologic cycle in deep-time climate problems.

Hydrology refers to the whole panoply of effects the water molecule has on climate and on the land surface during its journey there and back again between ocean and atmosphere. On its way, it is cycled through vapour, cloud water, snow, sea ice and glacier ice, as well as acting as a catalyst for silicate-carbonate weathering reactions governing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Because carbon dioxide affects the hydrologic cycle through temperature, climate is a pas des deux between carbon dioxide and water, with important guest appearances by surface ice cover.