Non-invasive assessment of stroke volume and cardiovascular parameters based on peripheral pressure waveform.

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death globally, making the development of non-invasive and simple-to-use tools that bring insights into the state of the cardiovascular system of utmost importance. We investigated the possibility of using peripheral pulse wave recordings to estimate stroke volume (SV) and subject-specific parameters describing the selected properties of the cardiovascular system. Peripheral pressure waveforms were recorded in the radial artery using applanation tonometry (SphygmoCor) in 35 hemodialysis (HD) patients and 14 healthy subjects. The pressure waveforms were then used to estimate subject-specific parameters of a mathematical model of pulse wave propagation coupled with the elastance-based model of the left ventricle. Bioimpedance cardiography measurements (PhysioFlow) were performed to validate the model-estimated SV. Mean absolute percentage error between the simulated and measured pressure waveforms was 4.0% and 2.8% for the HD and control group, respectively. We obtained a moderate correlation between the model-estimated and bioimpedance-based SV (r = 0.57, p<0.05, and r = 0.58, p<0.001, for the control group and HD patients, respectively). We also observed a correlation between the estimated end-systolic elastance of the left ventricle and the peripheral systolic pressure in both HD patients (r = 0.84, p<0.001) and the control group (r = 0.70, p<0.01). These preliminary results suggest that, after additional validation and possibly further refinement to increase accuracy, the proposed methodology could support non-invasive assessment of stroke volume and selected heart function parameters and vascular properties. Importantly, the proposed method could be potentially implemented in the existing devices measuring peripheral pressure waveforms.

Classical mathematical models for prediction of response to chemotherapy and immunotherapy.

Classical mathematical models of tumor growth have shaped our understanding of cancer and have broad practical implications for treatment scheduling and dosage. However, even the simplest textbook models have been barely validated in real world-data of human patients. In this study, we fitted a range of differential equation models to tumor volume measurements of patients undergoing chemotherapy or cancer immunotherapy for solid tumors. We used a large dataset of 1472 patients with three or more measurements per target lesion, of which 652 patients had six or more data points. We show that the early treatment response shows only moderate correlation with the final treatment response, demonstrating the need for nuanced models. We then perform a head-to-head comparison of six classical models which are widely used in the field: the Exponential, Logistic, Classic Bertalanffy, General Bertalanffy, Classic Gompertz and General Gompertz model. Several models provide a good fit to tumor volume measurements, with the Gompertz model providing the best balance between goodness of fit and number of parameters. Similarly, when fitting to early treatment data, the general Bertalanffy and Gompertz models yield the lowest mean absolute error to forecasted data, indicating that these models could potentially be effective at predicting treatment outcome. In summary, we provide a quantitative benchmark for classical textbook models and state-of-the art models of human tumor growth. We publicly release an anonymized version of our original data, providing the first benchmark set of human tumor growth data for evaluation of mathematical models.

Carbonic Anhydrase IX Suppression Shifts Partial Response to Checkpoint Inhibitors into Complete Tumor Eradication: Model-Based Investigation.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized the treatment of solid malignancies, including non-small-cell lung cancer. However, immunotherapy resistance constitutes a significant challenge. To investigate carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) as a driver of resistance, we built a differential equation model of tumor-immune interactions. The model considers treatment with the small molecule CAIX inhibitor SLC-0111 in combination with ICIs. Numerical simulations showed that, given an efficient immune response, CAIX KO tumors tended toward tumor elimination in contrast to their CAIX-expressing counterparts, which stabilized close to the positive equilibrium. Importantly, we demonstrated that short-term combination therapy with a CAIX inhibitor and immunotherapy could shift the asymptotic behavior of the original model from stable disease to tumor eradication. Finally, we calibrated the model with data from murine experiments on CAIX suppression and combination therapy with anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4. Concluding, we have developed a model that reproduces experimental findings and enables the investigation of combination therapies. Our model suggests that transient CAIX inhibition may induce tumor regression, given a sufficient immune infiltrate in the tumor, which can be boosted with ICIs.

Evaluating key characteristics of ideal colorectal cancer screening modalities: the microsimulation approach.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) can effectively reduce CRC incidence and mortality. Besides colonoscopy, tests for the detection of biomarkers in stool, blood, or serum, including the fecal immunochemical test (FIT), ColoGuard, Epi proColon, and PolypDx, have recently been advanced. We aimed to identify the characteristics of theoretic, highly efficient screening tests and calculated the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of available screening tests. METHODS: Using the microsimulation-based colon modeling open-source tool (CMOST), we simulated 142,501 theoretic screening tests with variable assumptions for adenoma and carcinoma sensitivity, specificity, test frequency, and adherence, and we identified highly efficient tests outperforming colonoscopy. For available screening tests, we simulated 10 replicates of a virtual population of 2 million individuals, using epidemiologic characteristics and costs assumptions of the United States. RESULTS: Highly efficient theoretic screening tests were characterized by high sensitivity for advanced adenoma and carcinoma and high patient adherence. All simulated available screening tests were effective at 100% adherence to screening and at expected real-world adherence rates. All tests were cost effective below the threshold of 100,000 U.S. dollars per life year gained. With perfect adherence, FIT was the most effective and cost-efficient intervention, whereas Epi proColon was the most effective at expected real-world adherence rates. In our sensitivity analysis, assumptions for patient adherence had the strongest impact on effectiveness of screening. CONCLUSIONS: Our microsimulation study identified characteristics of highly efficient theoretic screening tests and confirmed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy and available urine-, blood-, and stool-based tests. Better patient adherence results in superior effectiveness for CRC prevention in the whole population.

Association between Biomarkers of Mineral and Bone Metabolism and Removal of Calcium and Phosphate in Hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: A significant drop of serum phosphate and calcium removal or loading during hemodialysis induce reactions in mineral and bone remodeling that may inversely affect phosphate and calcium removal during dialysis. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyze the interdependencies between biomarkers of mineral and bone metabolism and removal of phosphate and calcium during hemodialysis, as this complex relationship is not fully understood. METHODS: Three subsequent hemodialysis sessions during a 1-week treatment cycle with interdialytic periods of 2-2-3 days were monitored in 25 anuric patients. Calcium and phosphate concentrations were measured in serum before, at 1, 2, and 3 h, at the end, and 45 min after each session and in the outlet dialysate every 30 min. Biomarkers associated with mineral and bone metabolism: parathyroid hormone (PTH 1-34 and PTH 1-84), calcitonin, 25(OH)-vitamin D, fetuin-A, osteopontin, osteocalcin 1-43/49, and intact osteocalcin were assayed once in each patient before the midweek hemodialysis session. RESULTS: Post-dialytic and intra-dialytic serum phosphate of midweek hemodialysis session and phosphate mass removed within 1 week correlated positively with serum PTH (0.40 < rho <0.46, p value <0.05). Higher concentration of serum PTH was associated with an increased level of osteocalcin. Pre-dialytic, post-dialytic, average for treatment time and average weekly concentrations of ionized calcium in serum correlated positively with serum osteocalcin. Serum osteocalcin and osteopontin levels were associated with the masses of total and ionized calcium, respectively, removed during 3 hemodialysis sessions. CONCLUSIONS: During hemodialysis, phosphate removal was associated with serum PTH, whereas calcium kinetics was influenced by serum osteocalcin and osteopontin. These results demonstrate that active processes involving biomarkers of mineral and bone metabolism are affected by the phosphate and calcium kinetics already within 4 h hemodialysis sessions.

Alterations of peritoneal transport characteristics in dialysis patients with ultrafiltration failure: tissue and capillary components.

BACKGROUND: Ultrafiltration failure (UFF) in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients is due to altered peritoneal transport properties leading to reduced capacity to remove excess water. Here, with the aim to establish the role of local alterations of the two major transport barriers, peritoneal tissue and capillary wall, we investigate changes in overall peritoneal transport characteristics in UFF patients in relation to corresponding local alterations of peritoneal tissue and capillary wall transport properties. METHODS: Six-hour dwell studies using 3.86% glucose solutions and radioisotopically labelled serum albumin added to dialysate as a volume marker were analysed in 31 continuous ambulatory PD patients, 20 with normal ultrafiltration (NUF) and 11 with UFF. For each patient, the physiologically based parameters were evaluated for both transport barriers using the spatially distributed approach based on the individual intraperitoneal profiles of volume and concentrations of glucose, sodium, urea and creatinine. RESULTS: UFF patients as compared with NUF patients had increased solute diffusivity in both barriers, peritoneal tissue and capillary wall, decreased tissue hydraulic conductivity and increased local lymphatic absorption and functional decrease in the fraction of the ultra-small pores. This resulted in altered distribution of fluid and solutes in the peritoneal tissue, and decreased penetration depths of fluid and solutes into the tissue in UFF patients. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical modelling using a spatially distributed approach for the description of clinical data suggests that alterations both in the capillary wall and in the tissue barrier contribute to UFF through their effect on transport and distribution of solutes and fluid within the tissue.

Patient-specific pulse wave propagation model identifies cardiovascular risk characteristics in hemodialysis patients.

Risk of cardiovascular associated death in dialysis patients is the highest among all other co-morbidities. Improving the identification of patients with the highest cardiovascular risk to design an adequate treatment is, therefore, of utmost importance. There are several non-invasive cardiovascular state biomarkers based on the pulse (pressure) wave propagation properties, but their major determinants are not fully understood. In the current study we aimed to provide a framework to precisely dissect the information available in non-invasively recorded pulse wave in hemodialysis patients. Radial pressure wave profiles were recorded before, during and after two independent hemodialysis sessions in 35 anuric prevalent hemodialysis patients and once in a group of 32 healthy volunteers. Each recording was used to estimate six subject-specific parameters of pulse wave propagation model. Pressure profiles were also analyzed using SphygmoCor software (AtCor Medical, Australia) to derive values of already established biomarkers, i.e. augmentation index and sub-endocardial viability ratio (SEVR). Data preprocessing using propensity score matching allowed to compare hemodialysis and healthy groups. Augmentation index remained on average stable at 142 ± 28% during dialysis and had similar values in both considered groups. SEVR, whose pre-dialytic value was on average lower by 12% compared to healthy participants, was improved by hemodialysis, with post-dialytic values indistinguishable from those in healthy population (p-value > 0.2). The model, however, identified that the patients on hemodialysis had significantly increased stiffness of both large and small arteries compared to healthy counterparts (> 60% before dialysis with p-value < 0.05 or borderline) and that it was only transiently decreased during hemodialysis session. Additionally, correlation-based clustering revealed that augmentation index reflects the shape of heart ejection profile and SEVR is associated with stiffness of larger arteries. Patient-specific pulse wave propagation modeling coupled with radial pressure profile recording correctly identified increased arterial stiffness in hemodialysis patients, while regular pulse wave analysis based biomarkers failed to show significant differences. Further model testing in larger populations and investigating other biomarkers are needed to confirm these findings.

Toward early detection of Helicobacter pylori-associated gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: Gastric cancer is typically diagnosed at a late stage, leading to poor prognoses. Helicobacter pylori is responsible for 70% of gastric cancers globally, and patients with this bacterial infection often present with early stages of the carcinogenic pathway such as inflammation or gastritis. Although many patients continue to progress to advanced-stage disease after antibacterial treatment, there are no follow-up screening protocols for patients with a history of H. pylori. METHODS: Several biomarkers (Lgr5, CD133, CD44) become upregulated during gastric carcinogenesis. A logistic regression model is developed using clinical data from 59 patients at different stages of the carcinogenic pathway to identify the likelihood of being at an advanced stage of disease for all combinations of age, sex, and marker positivity. Using these likelihood distributions and the observed rate of marker positivity increase, time to high likelihood (probability >0.8) of advanced disease for individual patients is predicted. RESULTS: A strong correlation between marker positivity and disease stage was found for all three markers. Disease stage was accurately classified by the respective regression models for more than 86% of retrospective patients. Highly patient-specific predictions of time to onset of dysplasia were made, allowing the classification of 17 patients initially diagnosed with intestinal metaplasia into high-, intermediate-, or low-risk categories. CONCLUSIONS: We present an approach designed to integrate pathology, mathematics, and statistics for detection of the earliest precancerous, treatable lesion. Given the simplicity and robustness of the framework, such technique has the potential to guide personalized screening schedules to minimize the risk of undetected malignant transformation.

Predicting Patient-Specific Radiotherapy Protocols Based on Mathematical Model Choice for Proliferation Saturation Index.

Radiation is commonly used in cancer treatment. Over 50% of all cancer patients will undergo radiotherapy (RT) as part of cancer care. Scientific advances in RT have primarily focused on the physical characteristics of treatment including beam quality and delivery. Only recently have inroads been made into utilizing tumor biology and radiobiology to design more appropriate RT protocols. Tumors are composites of proliferating and growth-arrested cells, and overall response depends on their respective proportions at irradiation. Prokopiou et al. (Radiat Oncol 10:159, 2015) developed the concept of the proliferation saturation index (PSI) to augment the clinical decision process associated with RT. This framework is based on the application of the logistic equation to pre-treatment imaging data in order to estimate a patient-specific tumor carrying capacity, which is then used to recommend a specific RT protocol. It is unclear, however, how dependent clinical recommendations are on the underlying tumor growth law. We discuss a PSI framework with a generalized logistic equation that can capture kinetics of different well-known growth laws including logistic and Gompertzian growth. Estimation of model parameters on the basis of clinical data revealed that the generalized logistic model can describe data equally well for a wide range of the generalized logistic exponent value. Clinical recommendations based on the calculated PSI, however, are strongly dependent on the specific growth law assumed. Our analysis suggests that the PSI framework may best be utilized in clinical practice when the underlying tumor growth law is known, or when sufficiently many tumor growth models suggest similar fractionation protocols.

SPECT/CT image-based dosimetry for Yttrium-90 radionuclide therapy: Application to treatment response.

This work demonstrates the efficacy of voxel-based 90 Y microsphere dosimetry utilizing post-therapy SPECT/CT imaging and applies it to the prediction of treatment response for the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A 90 Y microsphere dosimetry navigator (RapidSphere) within a commercial platform (Velocity, Varian Medical Systems) was demonstrated for three microsphere cases that were imaged using optimized bremsstrahlung SPECT/CT. For each case, the 90 Y SPECT/CT was registered to follow-up diagnostic MR/CT using deformable image registration. The voxel-based dose distribution was computed using the local deposition method with known injected activity. The system allowed the visualization of the isodose distributions on any of the registered image datasets and the calculation of dose-volume histograms (DVHs). The dosimetric analysis illustrated high local doses that are characteristic of blood-flow directed brachytherapy. In the first case, the HCC mass demonstrated a complete response to treatment indicated by a necrotic region in follow-up MR imaging. This result was dosimetrically predicted since the gross tumor volume (GTV) was well covered by the prescription isodose volume (V150 Gy = 85%). The second case illustrated a partial response to treatment which was characterized by incomplete necrosis of an HCC mass and a remaining area of solid enhancement in follow-up MR imaging. This result was predicted by dosimetric analysis because the GTV demonstrated incomplete coverage by the prescription isodose volume (V470 Gy = 18%). The third case demonstrated extrahepatic activity. The dosimetry indicated that the prescription (125 Gy) isodose region extended outside of the liver into the duodenum (178 Gy maximum dose). This was predictive of toxicity as the patient later developed a duodenal ulcer. The ability to predict outcomes and complications using deformable image registration, calculated isodose distributions, and DVHs, points to the clinical utility of patient-specific dose calculations for 90 Y radioembolization treatment planning.

GammaKnife versus VMAT radiosurgery plan quality for many brain metastases.

The purpose of this work was to compare dose distributions between two radiosurgery modalities, single-isocenter volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and GammaKnife Perfexion (GK), in the treatment of a large number (≥7) of brain metastases. Twelve patients with 103 brain metastases were analyzed. The median number of targets per patient was 8 (range: 7-14). GK plans were compared to noncoplanar VMAT plans using both 6-MV flattening filter-free (FFF) and 10-MV FFF modes. Parameters analyzed included radiation therapy oncology group conformity index (CI), 12, 6, and 3 Gy isodose volumes (V12 Gy, V6 Gy, V3 Gy), mean and maximum hippocampal dose, and maximum skin dose. There were statistically significant differences in CI (2.5 ± 1.6 vs 1.6 ± 0.8 and 1.7 ± 0.9, P < 0.001, P < 0.001), V12 Gy (2.8 ± 6.1 cc vs 3.0 ± 5.2 cc and 3.1 ± 5.4 cc, P = 0.003, P < 0.001), and V3 Gy (323.0 ± 294.8 cc vs, 880.1 ± 369.1 cc and 937.9 ±  vs 361.9 cc, P = 0.005, P = 0.001) between GK versus both 6-MV FFF and 10-MV FFF. No significant differences existed for maximum hippocampal or skin doses. In conclusion, highly optimized VMAT produced improved conformity at the expense of a higher V12 Gy and V3 Gy volume when compared with highly optimized GK.

The Optimal Radiation Dose to Induce Robust Systemic Anti-Tumor Immunity.

The synergy of radiation and the immune system is currently receiving significant attention in oncology as numerous studies have shown that cancer irradiation can induce strong anti-tumor immune responses. It remains unclear, however, what are the best radiation fractionation protocols to maximize the therapeutic benefits of this synergy. Here, we present a novel mathematical model that can be used to predict and dissect the complexity of the immune-mediated response at multiple tumor sites after applying focal irradiation and systemic immunotherapy. We successfully calibrate the proposed framework with published experimental data, in which two tumors were grown in mice at two spatially-separated sites from which only one was irradiated using various radiation fractionation protocols with and without concurrent systemic immunotherapy. The proposed model is calibrated to fit the temporal dynamics of tumor volume at both sites and can predict changes in immune infiltration in the non-irradiated tumors. The model was then used to investigate additional radiation fractionation protocols. Model simulations suggest that the optimal radiation doses per fraction to maximize anti-tumor immunity are between 10 and 13 Gy, at least for the experimental setting used for model calibration. This work provides the framework for evaluating radiation fractionation protocols for radiation-induced immune-mediated systemic anti-tumor responses.

Neoadjuvant radiotherapy of early-stage breast cancer and long-term disease-free survival.

BACKGROUND: Compared with surgery alone, postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) improves relapse-free survival of patients with early-stage breast cancer. We evaluated the long-term overall and disease-free survival rates of neoadjuvant (presurgical) versus adjuvant RT in early-stage breast cancer patients. METHODS: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database provided by the National Institutes of Health to derive an analytic dataset of 250,195 female patients with early-stage breast cancer who received RT before (n = 2554; 1.02%) or after (n = 247,641; 98.98%) surgery. Disease-free survival, defined as time to diagnosis of a second primary tumor at any location, was calculated from automated patient identification matching of all SEER records. RESULTS: Partial and complete mastectomies were performed in 94.4% and 5.6% of patients, respectively. In the largest cohort of estrogen receptor-positive women who underwent partial mastectomy, the HR of developing a second primary tumor after neoadjuvant compared with adjuvant RT was 0.64 (95% CI 0.55-0.75; P < 0.0001). Overall survival was independent of radiation sequence (HR 1; P = 0.95). Neoadjuvant RT also resulted in a lower HR for second primary cancer among estrogen receptor-positive patients who underwent mastectomy compared with those who received adjuvant RT (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.26-0.87; P = 0.0162). CONCLUSIONS: Neoadjuvant RT may significantly improve disease-free survival without reducing overall survival, especially for estrogen receptor-positive patients with early-stage breast cancer. This finding warrants further exploration of potential long-term benefits of neoadjuvant radiotherapy for early-stage breast cancer in a controlled, prospective clinical trial setting, with correlative studies done to identify potential mechanisms of superiority.

Evolution and phenotypic selection of cancer stem cells.

Cells of different organs at different ages have an intrinsic set of kinetics that dictates their behavior. Transformation into cancer cells will inherit these kinetics that determine initial cell and tumor population progression dynamics. Subject to genetic mutation and epigenetic alterations, cancer cell kinetics can change, and favorable alterations that increase cellular fitness will manifest themselves and accelerate tumor progression. We set out to investigate the emerging intratumoral heterogeneity and to determine the evolutionary trajectories of the combination of cell-intrinsic kinetics that yield aggressive tumor growth. We develop a cellular automaton model that tracks the temporal evolution of the malignant subpopulation of so-called cancer stem cells(CSC), as these cells are exclusively able to initiate and sustain tumors. We explore orthogonal cell traits, including cell migration to facilitate invasion, spontaneous cell death due to genetic drift after accumulation of irreversible deleterious mutations, symmetric cancer stem cell division that increases the cancer stem cell pool, and telomere length and erosion as a mitotic counter for inherited non-stem cancer cell proliferation potential. Our study suggests that cell proliferation potential is the strongest modulator of tumor growth. Early increase in proliferation potential yields larger populations of non-stem cancer cells(CC) that compete with CSC and thus inhibit CSC division while a reduction in proliferation potential loosens such inhibition and facilitates frequent CSC division. The sub-population of cancer stem cells in itself becomes highly heterogeneous dictating population level dynamics that vary from long-term dormancy to aggressive progression. Our study suggests that the clonal diversity that is captured in single tumor biopsy samples represents only a small proportion of the total number of phenotypes.

Phosphate Kinetics in Hemodialysis: Application of Delayed Pseudo One-Compartment Model.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Various body-regulating mechanisms try to counteract rapid changes in serum phosphate levels during hemodialysis (HD). Neither recently proposed nor other existing standard compartment models are able to capture clinically observed intradialytic serum phosphate rebound. METHODS: Phosphate serum concentration was frequently measured during 75 HD sessions in 25 patients. Time delay was introduced into the standard pseudo one-compartment model in order to reflect the time needed for the body-regulating mechanism to affect serum phosphate level. RESULTS: Measured serum phosphate concentration at the end of 4 h dialysis session was on average larger than 1 h earlier (p value = 0.015). The model with time delay reproduced successfully 19 out of 21 and 9 out of 10 sessions with and without recorded intradialytic rebound, respectively. CONCLUSION: The intradialytic serum phosphate rebound is associated with the time delay reflecting efficacy of body-regulating mechanisms, that is, the larger the delay the larger is the intradialytic rebound.

Phosphate Kinetics During Weekly Cycle of Hemodialysis Sessions: Application of Mathematical Modeling.

Both hyperphosphatemia and hypophosphatemia are associated with increased morbidity and mortality among patients on dialysis. The control of serum phosphate concentration is a considerable clinical problem. Our study aimed to improve understanding of phosphate kinetics in patients on dialysis using mathematical modeling. Three consecutive hemodialysis sessions with breaks of 2-2-3 days were monitored in 25 patients. Phosphate concentration was measured every hour and 45 min after the end of dialysis in blood serum and every 30 min in dialysate during each session. Volume of fluid compartments and body composition were assessed by bioimpedance. The pseudo one-compartment model was applied to describe the profile of phosphate in blood serum during intra- and interdialytic periods of 1-week cycle of three hemodialysis sessions. Model parameters, such as phosphate internal clearance (KM ) and the rate of phosphate mobilization (RM ), were correlated with the reduction of serum phosphate concentration during dialysis (Cpost /Cpre ) and with equivalent continuous clearance (ECC) for phosphate. KM correlated negatively with predialysis serum phosphate concentration. There was significant positive correlation between RM and age. Postdialysis volume of phosphate central compartment was lower than, but correlated to, extracellular water volume. Parameters of the pseudo one-compartment model, phosphate internal clearance, and the rate of phosphate inflow to the central compartment (the one accessible for dialysis) from other phosphate body reservoirs correlated with the indices of dialysis adequacy, such as reduction of serum phosphate and ECC. The pseudo one-compartment model can be successfully extended from a single hemodialysis to the standard weekly cycle of sessions and the model parameters strongly correlate with the adequacy parameters of dialytic removal of phosphate.

Retrospective Observational Study to Determine the Epidemiology and Treatment Patterns of Patients with Triple-Negative Breast Cancer.

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) poses a serious therapeutic challenge due to the occurrence of frequently aggressive, heterogenic, and metastatic tumours. The absence of therapeutic targets for traditional therapies is a hindrance to establishing a standardised therapy for TNBC. There is limited TNBCs epidemiological and real-world data about TNBC treatment regimens in Poland. We retrospectively analysed clinical data from our hospital registry from 2015 and 2020. A total of 8103 individuals with breast cancer were admitted to the MSCI, while 856 (10.6%) were diagnosed with TNBC. Most of the early-stage or locally advanced TNBC individuals had underlying conditions, presented mostly poorly differentiated (G3) stage II tumours and featured a bi-modal age distribution. On average, one-third of all tested TNBCs carried BRCA mutations and its identification impacted surgery preference. We observed a significant increase in the use of systemic therapy among TNBCs, whereas carboplatin and dose-dense regimens showed the most prominent upsurge in the neoadjuvant setting. Moreover, the use of neoadjuvants was positively correlated with less invasive breast and lymph node surgeries. The presented data align with general trends observed in other countries and will contribute to expanding knowledge in the planning of treatment regimens and their outcomes.

Optimal timing of a colonoscopy screening schedule depends on adenoma detection, adenoma risk, adherence to screening and the screening objective: A microsimulation study.

Colonoscopy-based screening provides protection against colorectal cancer (CRC), but the optimal starting age and time intervals of screening colonoscopies are unknown. We aimed to determine an optimal screening schedule for the US population and its dependencies on the objective of screening (life years gained or incidence, mortality, or cost reduction) and the setting in which screening is performed. We used our established open-source microsimulation model CMOST to calculate optimized colonoscopy schedules with one, two, three or four screening colonoscopies between 20 and 90 years of age. A single screening colonoscopy was most effective in reducing life years lost from CRC when performed at 55 years of age. Two, three and four screening colonoscopy schedules saved a maximum number of life years when performed between 49-64 years; 44-69 years; and 40-72 years; respectively. However, for maximum incidence and mortality reduction, screening colonoscopies needed to be scheduled 4-8 years later in life. The optimum was also influenced by adenoma detection efficiency with lower values for these parameters favoring a later starting age of screening. Low adherence to screening consistently favored a later start and an earlier end of screening. In a personalized approach, optimal screening would start earlier for high-risk patients and later for low-risk individuals. In conclusion, our microsimulation-based approach supports colonoscopy screening schedule between 45 and 75 years of age but the precise timing depends on the objective of screening, as well as assumptions regarding individual CRC risk, efficiency of adenoma detection during colonoscopy and adherence to screening.

An in silico model to study the impact of carbonic anhydrase IX expression on tumour growth and anti-PD-1 therapy.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are revolutionary cancer treatments. However, the mechanisms behind their effectiveness are not yet fully understood. Here, we aimed to investigate the role of the pH-regulatory enzyme carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) in ICI success. Consequently, we developed an in silico model of the tumour microenvironment. The hybrid model consists of an agent-based model of tumour-immune cell interactions, coupled with a set of diffusion-reaction equations describing substances in the environment. It is calibrated with data from the literature, enabling the study of its qualitative behaviour. In our model, CAIX-expressing tumours acidified their neighbourhood, thereby reducing immune infiltration by 90% (p < 0.001) and resulting in a 25% increase in tumour burden (p < 0.001). Moreover, suppression of CAIX improved the response to anti-PD-1 (23% tumour reduction in CAIX knockouts and 6% in CAIX-expressing tumours, p < 0.001), independently of initial PD-L1 expression. Our simulations suggest that patients with CAIX-expressing tumours could respond favourably to combining ICIs with CAIX suppression, even in the absence of pre-treatment PD-L1 expression. Furthermore, when calibrated with tumour-type-specific data, our model could serve as a high-throughput tool for testing the effectiveness of such a combinatorial approach.

Incidental Diagnosis of Urothelial Bladder Cancer: Associations with Overall Survival.

BACKGROUND: We investigated whether an incidental diagnosis (ID) of bladder cancer (BC) was associated with improved survival. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed data of consecutive patients with no prior diagnosis of urothelial cancer who underwent a primary transurethral resection of bladder tumor (pTURBT) between January 2013 and February 2021 and were subsequently diagnosed with urothelial BC. The type of diagnosis (incidental or non-incidental) was identified. Overall, relative, recurrence-free, and progression-free survival rates (OS, RS, RFS, and PFS) after pTURBT were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier curves and long-rank tests. A multivariable Cox regression model for the overall mortality was developed. RESULTS: A total of 435 patients were enrolled. The median follow-up was 2.7 years. ID cases were more likely to be low-grade (LG) and non-muscle-invasive. ID vs. non-ID was associated with a trend toward an improved 7-year OS (66% vs. 49%, p = 0.092) and a significantly improved 7-year OS, if incidental cases were limited to ultrasound-detected tumors (75% vs. 49%, p = 0.013). ID was associated with improved survival among muscle-invasive BC (MIBC) patients (3-year RS: 97% vs. 23%, p < 0.001), but not among other subgroups stratified according to disease stage or grade. In multivariable analysis, only age, MIBC, and high-grade (HG) cancer demonstrated an association with mortality. PFS and RFS among non-MIBC patients did not differ in regard to the type of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Incidental diagnosis may contribute to an improved survival in BC patients, most probably in the mechanism of the relative downgrading of the disease, including the possible overdiagnosis of LG tumors. Nevertheless, in the subgroup analyses, we noted marked survival benefits in MIBC cases. Further prospective studies are warranted to gain a deeper understanding of the observed associations.