Smoking data quality of primary care practices in comparison with smoking data from the New Zealand Maori and Pacific abdominal aortic aneurysm screening programme: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Quality smoking data is crucial for assessing smoking-related health risk and eligibility for interventions related to that risk. Smoking information collected in primary care practices (PCPs) is a major data source; however, little is known about the PCP smoking data quality. This project compared PCP smoking data to that collected in the Maori and Pacific Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) screening programme. METHODS: A two stage review was conducted. In Stage 1, data quality was assessed by comparing the PCP smoking data recorded close to AAA screening episodes with the data collected from participants at the AAA screening session. Inter-rater reliability was analysed using Cohen's kappa scores. In Stage 2, an audit of longitudinal smoking status was conducted, of a subset of participants potentially misclassified in Stage 1. Data were compared in three groups: current smoker (smoke at least monthly), ex-smoker (stopped > 1 month ago) and never smoker (smoked < 100 cigarettes in lifetime). RESULTS: Of the 1841 people who underwent AAA screening, 1716 (93%) had PCP smoking information. Stage 1 PCP smoking data showed 82% concordance with the AAA data (adjusted kappa 0.76). Fewer current or ex-smokers were recorded in PCP data. In the Stage 2 analysis of discordant and missing data (N = 313), 212 were enrolled in the 29 participating PCPs, and of these 13% were deceased and 41% had changed PCP. Of the 93 participants still enrolled in the participating PCPs, smoking status had been updated for 43%. Data on quantity, duration, or quit date of smoking were largely missing in PCP records. The AAA data of ex-smokers who were classified as never smokers in the Stage 2 PCP data (N = 27) showed a median smoking cessation duration of 32 years (range 0-50 years), with 85% (N = 23) having quit more than 15 years ago. CONCLUSIONS: PCP smoking data quality compared with the AAA data is consistent with international findings. PCP data captured fewer current and ex-smokers, suggesting ongoing improvement is important. Intervention programmes based on smoking status should consider complementary mechanisms to ensure eligible individuals are not missed from programme invitation.

Validation Study of Cardiovascular International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Edition, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) Codes in Administrative Healthcare Databases (ANZACS-QI 77).

BACKGROUND: Administrative healthcare databases can be utilised for research. The accuracy of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Edition, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) coding of cardiovascular conditions in New Zealand is not known and requires validation. METHOD: International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Edition, Australian Modification coded discharges for acute coronary syndrome (ACS), heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF), in both primary and secondary diagnostic positions, were identified from four district health boards between 1 January 2019 and 31 June 2019. A sample was randomly selected for retrospective clinician review for evidence of the coded diagnosis according to contemporary diagnostic criteria. Positive predictive values (PPVs) for ICD-10-AM coding vs clinician review were calculated. This study is also known as All of New Zealand, Acute Coronary Syndrome-Quality Improvement (ANZACS-QI) 77. RESULTS: A total of 600 cases (200 for each diagnosis, 5.0% of total identified cases) were reviewed. The PPV of ACS was 93% (95% confidence interval [CI] 89%-96%), HF was 93% (95% CI 89%-96%) and AF was 96% (95% CI 92%-98%). There were no differences in PPV between district health boards. PPV for ACS were lower in Maori vs non-Maori (72% vs 96%; p=0.004), discharge from non-Cardiology vs Cardiology services (89% vs 96%; p=0.048) and ICD-10-AM coding for unstable angina vs myocardial infarction (81% vs 95%; p=0.011). PPV for HF were higher in the primary vs secondary diagnostic position (100% vs 89%; p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The PPVs of ICD-10-AM coding for ACS, HF, and AF were high in this validation study. ICD-10-AM coding can be used to identify these diagnoses in administrative databases for the purposes of healthcare evaluation and research.

The Prevalence and Management of Atrial Fibrillation in New Zealand Maori Detected through an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Screening Program.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening was incorporated into an abdominal aortic aneurysm screening (AAA) program for New Zealand (NZ) Maori. METHODS: AF screening was performed as an adjunct to AAA screening of Maori men aged 60-74 years and women aged 65-74 years registered with primary health care practices in Auckland, NZ. Pre-existing AF was determined through coded diagnoses or medications in the participant's primary care record. Subsequent audit of the record assessed accuracy of pre-screening coding, medication use and clinical follow-up. RESULTS: Among 1,933 people successfully screened, the prevalence of AF was 144 (7.4%), of which 46 (2.4% of the cohort) were patients without AF coded in the medical record. More than half of these were revealed to be known AF but that was not coded. Thus, the true prevalence of newly detected AF was 1.1% (n=21). An additional 48 (2.5%) of the cohort had been coded as AF but were not in AF at the time of screening. Among the 19 at-risk screen-detected people with AF, 10 started appropriate anticoagulation therapy within 6 months. Of the nine patients who did not commence anticoagulation therapy, five had a subsequent adverse clinical outcome in the follow-up period, including one with ischaemic stroke; two had contraindications to anticoagulants. Among those with previously diagnosed AF, the proportion receiving anticoagulation therapy rose from 57% pre-screening to 83% at 6 months post-screening (p<0.0001); among newly diagnosed AF the proportion rose from 0% to 53% (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: AF screening is a feasible low-cost adjunct to AAA screening with potential to reduce ethnic inequities in stroke incidence. However, effective measures are needed to ensure that high-risk newly diagnosed AF is managed according to best practice guidelines.

A Risk Model to Predict Statin Non-Adherence Following an Acute Coronary Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Patients at risk of statin non-adherence are often not identified during hospital admission with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: In 19,942 patients hospitalised for ACS, statin dispensing was determined from the national pharmaceutical dispensing database. A risk score for non-adherence was developed from a multivariable Poisson regression model of associations between risk factors and the statin Medication Possession Ratio (MPR) <0.8 6-18 months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Statin MPR was <0.8 in 4,736 (24%) patients. MPR <0.8 was more likely in patients with a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) (RR 3.79, CI 95% 3.42-4.20) and those without known CVD (RR 2.25, 95% CI 2.04-2.48) who were not taking a statin on ACS admission, compared to patients with low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol <2 mmol/L who were on a statin. For patients taking a statin on admission, higher LDL was associated with MPR <0.8 (≥3 versus <2 mmol/L, RR 1.96, 95%CI 1.72-2.24). Other independent risk factors for MPR <0.8 were age <45 years, female, disadvantaged ethnic groups, and no coronary revascularisation during the ACS admission. The risk score, which included nine variables, had a C-statistic of 0.67. MPR was <0.8 in 12% of 5,348 patients with a score ≤5 (lowest quartile) and 45% of 5,858 patients with a score ≥11 (highest quartile). CONCLUSION: A risk score generated from routinely collected data predicts statin non-adherence in patients hospitalised with ACS. This may be used to target inpatient and outpatient interventions to improve medication adherence.

Cardiovascular risk prediction in type 2 diabetes before and after widespread screening: a derivation and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, most patients with diabetes worldwide have been diagnosed when symptomatic and have high cardiovascular risk, meaning most should be prescribed cardiovascular preventive medications. However, in New Zealand, a world-first national programme led to approximately 90% of eligible adults being screened for diabetes by 2016, up from 50% in 2012, identifying many asymptomatic patients with recent-onset diabetes. We hypothesised that cardiovascular risk prediction equations derived before widespread screening would now significantly overestimate risk in screen-detected patients. METHODS: New Zealanders aged 30-74 years with type 2 diabetes and without known cardiovascular disease, heart failure, or substantial renal impairment were identified from the 400 000-person PREDICT primary care cohort study between Oct 27, 2004, and Dec 30, 2016, covering the period before and after widespread screening. Sex-specific equations estimating 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease were developed using Cox regression models, with 18 prespecified predictors, including diabetes-related and renal function measures. Equation performance was compared with an equivalent equation derived in the New Zealand Diabetes Cohort Study (NZDCS), which recruited between 2000 and 2006, before widespread screening. FINDINGS: 46 652 participants were included in the PREDICT-1° Diabetes subcohort, of whom 4114 experienced first cardiovascular events during follow-up (median 5·2 years, IQR 3·3-7·4). 14 829 (31·8%) were not taking oral hypoglycaemic medications or insulin at baseline. Median 5-year cardiovascular risk estimated by the new equations was 4·0% (IQR 2·3-6·8) in women and 7·1% (4·5-11·2) in men. The older NZDCS equation overestimated median cardiovascular risk by three times in women (median 14·2% [9·7-20·0]) and two times in men (17·1% [4·5-20·0]). Model and discrimination performance measures for PREDICT-1° Diabetse equations were also significantly better than for the NZDCS equation (eg, for women: R2=32% [95% CI 29-34], Harrell's C=0·73 [0·72-0·74], Royston's D=1·410 [1·330-1·490] vs R2=24% [21-26], C=0·69 [0·67-0·70], and D=1·147 [1·107-1·187]). INTERPRETATION: International treatment guidelines still consider most people with diabetes to be at high cardiovascular risk; however, we show that recent widespread diabetes screening has radically changed the cardiovascular risk profile of people with diabetes in New Zealand. Many of these patients have normal renal function, are not dispensed glucose-lowering medications, and have low cardiovascular risk. These findings have clear international implications as increased diabetes screening is inevitable due to increasing obesity, simpler screening tests, and the introduction of new-generation glucose-lowering medications that prevent cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular risk prediction equations derived from contemporary diabetes populations, with multiple diabetes-related and renal function predictors, will be required to better differentiate between low-risk and high-risk patients in this increasingly heterogeneous population and to inform appropriate non-pharmacological management and cost-effective targeting of expensive new medications. FUNDING: Health Research Council of New Zealand, Heart Foundation of New Zealand, and Healthier Lives National Science Challenge.

Relationship Between Soluble Transferrin Receptor and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure According to Ejection Fraction Phenotype: The New Zealand PEOPLE Study.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency (ID) is highly prevalent in patients with heart failure (HF) but its impact on prognosis in HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains unclear. We assessed whether ID defined by soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) criteria is independently associated with all-cause mortality in patients with HFpEF, and evaluated its comparative prognostic performance to ID definitions in common clinical use. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were analyzed from 788 patients (36% HFpEF) in a prospective multicenter HF cohort study. Baseline plasma samples were analyzed with respect to 4 definitions of ID: sTfR of ≥1.59 mg/L (IDsTfR1), sTfR of ≥1.76 mg/L (IDsTfR2), ferritin of <100 µg/L, or ferritin of 100-300 µg/L + transferrin saturation of <20% (IDFerritin), and transferrin saturation of <20% (IDTsat). In multivariable Cox models IDsTfR2 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-2.75) and IDTsat (HR, 1.69, 95% CI 1.10-2.59) were both independently associated with all-cause mortality in patients with HFpEF, whereas IDsTfR1 (HR 1.41, 95% CI 0.92-2.16) and IDFerritin (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.77-1.85) were not. On inclusion of patients with HF with reduced EF, IDsTfR1 (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13-1.86) gained significance, but IDFerritin (HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.95-1.54) did not. For each pair of definitions intra-patient concordance was approximately 65%. CONCLUSION: ID defined by sTfR criteria is independently associated with all-cause mortality in patients with HFpEF. Poor concordance between ID definitions suggests that iron biomarkers do not reflect the same pathological process in the complex relationship between iron and HF. Therefore, which definition should guide iron replacement needs further evaluation.

Cardiovascular disease preventive medication dispensing for almost every New Zealander 65 years and over: a preventive treatment paradox?

OBJECTIVE: To describe the dispensing of cardiovascular disease (CVD) preventive medications among older New Zealanders with and without prior CVD or diabetes. METHODS: New Zealanders aged ≥65 years in 2013 were identified using anonymised linkage of national administrative health databases. Dispensing of blood pressure lowering (BPL), lipid lowering (LL) or antithrombotic (AT) medications, was documented, stratified by age and by history of CVD, diabetes, or neither. RESULTS: Of the 593,549 people identified, 32% had prior CVD, 14% had diabetes (of whom half also had prior CVD) and 61% had neither diagnosis. For those with prior CVD, between 79-87% were dispensed BPL and 73-79% were dispensed AT medications, across all age groups. In contrast, LL dispensing was lower than either BPL or AT in every age group, falling from 75% at age 65-69 years to 43% at 85+ years. For people with diabetes, BPL and LL dispensing was similar to those with prior CVD, but AT dispensing was approximately 20% lower. Among people without prior CVD or diabetes, both BPL and AT dispensing increased with age (from 39% and 17% at age 65-69 years to 56% and 35% at 85+ years respectively), whereas LL dispensing was 26-31% across the 65-84 year age groups, falling to 17% at 85+ years. CONCLUSION: The much higher dispensing of BPL and AT compared to LL medications with increasing age suggests a preventive treatment paradox for older people, with the medications most likely to cause adverse effects being dispensed most often.

Ten-year trends in cardiac implantable electronic devices in New Zealand: a national data linkage study (ANZACS-QI 51).

BACKGROUND: Implant rates for cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED), including permanent pacemakers (PPM) and implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD), have increased globally in recent decades. AIMS: This is the first national study providing a contemporary analysis of national CIED implant trends by sex-specific age groups over an extended period. METHODS: Patient characteristics and device type were identified for 10 years (2009-2018) using procedure coding in the National Minimum Datasets, which collects all New Zealand (NZ) public hospital admissions. CIED implant rates represent implants/million population. RESULTS: New PPM implant rates increased by 4.6%/year (P < 0.001), increasing in all age groups except patients <40 years. Males received 60.1% of new PPM implants, with higher implant rates across all age groups compared with females. The annual increase in age-standardised implant rates was similar for males and females (3.4% vs 3.0%; P = 0.4). By 2018 the overall PPM implant rate was 538/million. New ICD implant rates increased by 4.2%/year (P < 0.001), increasing in all age groups except patients <40 and ≥ 80 years. Males received 78.1% of new ICD implants, with higher implant rates across all age groups compared to females. The annual increase in age-standardised implant rates was higher in males compared with females (3.5% vs 0.7%; P < 0.001). By 2018 the overall ICD implant rate was 144/million. CONCLUSION: CIED implant rates have increased steadily in NZ over the past decade but remain low compared with international benchmarks. Males had substantially higher CIED implant rates compared with females, with a growing gender disparity in ICD implant rates.

Regional variation in cardiac implantable electronic device implants trends in New Zealand over the past decade (ANZACS-QI 54).

BACKGROUND: Permanent pacemaker (PPM) and implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) implant rates have increased in New Zealand over the past decade. AIMS: To provide a contemporary analysis of regional variation in implant rates. METHODS: New PPM and ICD implants in patients aged ≥15 years were identified for 10 years (2009-2018) using procedure coding in the National Minimum Datasets, which collects all New Zealand public hospital admissions. Age-standardised new implant rates per million adult population were calculated for each of the four regions (Northern, Midland, Central and Southern) and the 20 district health boards (DHB) across those regions. Trend analysis was performed using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: New PPM implant rates increased nationally by 3.4%/year (P < 0.001). The Northern region had the highest new PPM implant rate, increasing by 4.5%/year (P < 0.001). Excluding DHB with <50 000 people, the new PPM implant rate for 2017/2018 was highest in Counties Manukau DHB (854.3/million; 95% confidence interval (CI): 774.9-933.6/million) and lowest in Canterbury DHB (488.6/million; 95% CI: 438.1-539.0/million). New ICD implant rates increased nationally by 3.0%/year (P = 0.002). The Midland region had the highest new ICD implant rate, increasing by 3.8%/year (P = 0.013). Excluding DHB with <50 000 people, the new ICD implant rate for 2017-2018 was highest in the Bay of Plenty DHB (228.5/million; 95% CI: 180.4-276.6/million) and lowest in Canterbury DHB (90.2/million; 95% CI: 69.9-110.4/million). CONCLUSION: There was significant variation in PPM and ICD implant rates across regions and DHB, suggesting potential inequity in patient access across New Zealand.

Cultural context in New Zealand: incorporating kaupapa Maori values in clinical research and practice.

We examined the importance of understanding and incorporating cultural context within Aotearoa/New Zealand when engaging in clinical research and practice. This paper reports on the qualitative findings of a mixed methods study aimed at determining what effect a cardiac risk reduction exercise and lifestyle management programme, embedded within a kaupapa Maori methodological approach, had on Maori participants. This methodology saw participants able to redevelop a western model cardiac risk reduction programme by introducing a Maori worldview. Our study revealed how the kaupapa Maori approach empowered participants to examine and evaluate not only their own health and lifestyle choices, but those of family and the wider community. Combining biomedical and kaupapa Maori components into the programme was found to benefit participants' mental, physical, spiritual and family well-being.

Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy Before and After Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator Implantation in New Zealand (ANZACS-QI 66).

INTRODUCTION: Guidelines recommend angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB)/angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI); beta blockers; and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) in patients with symptomatic heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction before consideration of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). This study aims to investigate dispensing rates of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) before and after primary prevention ICD implantation in New Zealand. METHODS: All patients receiving a primary prevention ICD between 2009 and 2018 were identified using nationally collected data on all public hospital admissions in New Zealand. This was anonymously linked to national pharmaceutical data to obtain medication dispensing. Medications were categorised as low dose (<50% of target dose), 50-99% of target dose or target dose based on international guidelines. RESULTS: Of the 1,698 patients identified, ACEi/ARB/ARNI, beta blockers and MRA were dispensed in 80.2%, 83.6% and 45.4%, respectively, prior to ICD implant. However, ≥50% target doses of each medication class were dispensed in only 51.8%, 51.8% and 34.5%, respectively. Only 15.8% of patients were receiving ≥50% target doses of all three classes of medications. In the 1,666 patients who survived 1 year after ICD implant, the proportions of patients dispensed each class of medications remained largely unchanged. CONCLUSION: Dispensing of GDMT was suboptimal in patients before and after primary prevention ICD implantation in New Zealand, and only a minority received ≥50% target doses of all classes of medication. Interventions are needed to optimise use of these standard evidence-based medications to improve clinical outcomes and avoid unnecessary device implantation.

Risk of major bleeding by ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation among 488,107 people in primary care: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antithrombotic medications (antiplatelets and anticoagulants) reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but with the disadvantage of increasing bleeding risk. Ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation are independent predictors of major bleeds among patients without CVD, but it is unclear whether they are also predictors of major bleeds among patients with CVD or atrial fibrillation (AF) after adjustment for clinical variables. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 488,107 people in New Zealand Primary Care (including 64,420 Maori, the indigenous people of New Zealand) aged 30-79 years who had their CVD risk assessed between 2007 and 2016. Participants were divided into three mutually exclusive subgroups: (1) AF with or without CVD (n = 15,212), (2) CVD and no AF (n = 43,790), (3) no CVD or AF (n = 429,105). Adjusted hazards ratios (adjHRs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazards models predicting major bleeding risk for each of the three subgroups to determine whether ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation are independent predictors of major bleeds in different cardiovascular risk groups. RESULTS: In all three subgroups (AF, CVD, no CVD/AF), Maori (adjHR 1.63 [1.39-1.91], 1.24 [1.09-1.42], 1.57 [95% CI 1.45-1.70], respectively), Pacific people (adjHR 1.90 [1.58-2.28], 1.30 [1.12-1.51], 1.62 [95% CI 1.49-1.75], respectively) and Chinese people (adjHR 1.53 [1.08-2.16], 1.15 [0.90-1.47], 1.13 [95% CI 1.01-1.26], respectively) were at increased risk of a major bleed compared to Europeans, although for Chinese people the effect did not reach statistical significance in the CVD subgroup. Compared to Europeans, Maori and Pacific peoples were generally at increased risk of all bleed types (gastrointestinal, intracranial and other bleeds). An increased risk of intracranial bleeds was observed among Chinese and Other Asian people and, in the CVD and no CVD/AF subgroups, among Indian people. Increasing socioeconomic deprivation was also associated with increased risk of a major bleed in all three subgroups (adjHR 1.07 [1.02-1.12], 1.07 [1.03-1.10], 1.10 [95% CI 1.08-1.12], respectively, for each increase in socioeconomic deprivation quintile). CONCLUSION: Ethnicity and socioeconomic status should be considered in bleeding risk assessments to guide the use of antithrombotic medication for the management of AF and CVD.

Impact of chronic kidney disease on mortality and cardiovascular outcomes after acute coronary syndrome: A nationwide data linkage study (ANZACS-QI 44).

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We examined the characteristics, management and outcomes of patients with CKD in the All New Zealand Acute Coronary Syndrome Quality Improvement (ANZACS-QI) national registry. METHODS: The cohort comprised New Zealand (NZ) patients with an acute coronary syndrome undergoing coronary angiography between January 2013 and December 2016. Patients were categorized according to their stage of CKD. Outcomes included all-cause and cause-specific mortality and hospitalization with myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and major bleeding. RESULTS: Of the 20 604 patients, 20.3% had normal renal function, with 53.3%, 23.3%, 1.7% and 1.4% having CKD stages 2, 3, 4 and 5 CKD, respectively. Patients with severe CKD were more likely to be Maori or Pacific and live in an area with greater socioeconomic deprivation. Death, recurrent MI or stroke, and major bleeding all increased incrementally with each worsening stage of CKD severity. Compared with those with normal renal function, patients with stage 5 CKD had a much higher all-cause (hazard ratio [HR] 16.41, 95% CI 13.06-20.61), cardiovascular (HR 16.38, 95% CI 12.17-22.04) and non-cardiovascular mortality (HR 13.66 9, 95% CI.56-19.51). In addition, patients with stage 5 CKD were at a higher risk of recurrent MI or stroke (HR 4.73, 95% CI 3.86-5.80) and bleeding (HR 5.84, 95% CI 4.39-7.76). CONCLUSION: CKD was associated with increased mortality and a high incidence of morbidity in patients undergoing coronary angiography in New Zealand. Initiatives to understand and improve outcomes in this group of patients are urgently needed.

Predicting Bleeding Risk to Guide Aspirin Use for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Cohort Study.

Background: Many prognostic models for cardiovascular risk can be used to estimate aspirin's absolute benefits, but few bleeding risk models are available to estimate its likely harms. Objective: To develop prognostic bleeding risk models among persons in whom aspirin might be considered for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: New Zealand primary care. Participants: The study cohort comprised 385 191 persons aged 30 to 79 years whose CVD risk was assessed between 2007 and 2016. Those with indications for or contraindications to aspirin and those who were already receiving antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy were excluded. Measurements: For each sex, Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict major bleeding risk; participants were censored at the earliest of the date on which they first met an exclusion criterion, date of death, or study end date (30 June 2017). The main models included the following predictors: demographic characteristics (age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic deprivation), clinical measurements (systolic blood pressure and ratio of total-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), family history of premature CVD, medical history (smoking, diabetes, bleeding, peptic ulcer disease, cancer, chronic liver disease, chronic pancreatitis, or alcohol-related conditions), and medication use (nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents, corticosteroids, and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors). Results: During 1 619 846 person-years of follow-up, 4442 persons had major bleeding events (of which 313 [7%] were fatal). The main models predicted a median 5-year bleeding risk of 1.0% (interquartile range, 0.8% to 1.5%) in women and 1.1% (interquartile range, 0.7% to 1.6%) in men. Plots of predicted-against-observed event rates showed good calibration throughout the risk range. Limitation: Hemoglobin level, platelet count, and body mass index were excluded from the main models because of high numbers of missing values, and the models were not externally validated in non-New Zealand populations. Conclusion: Prognostic bleeding risk models were developed that can be used to estimate the absolute bleeding harms of aspirin among persons in whom aspirin is being considered for the primary prevention of CVD. Primary Funding Source: The Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Personalized Prediction of Cardiovascular Benefits and Bleeding Harms From Aspirin for Primary Prevention: A Benefit-Harm Analysis.

Background: Whether the benefits of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outweigh its bleeding harms in some patients is unclear. Objective: To identify persons without CVD for whom aspirin would probably result in a net benefit. Design: Individualized benefit-harm analysis based on sex-specific risk scores and estimates of the proportional effect of aspirin on CVD and major bleeding from a 2019 meta-analysis. Setting: New Zealand primary care. Participants: 245 028 persons (43.6% women) aged 30 to 79 years without established CVD who had their CVD risk assessed between 2012 and 2016. Measurements: The net effect of aspirin was calculated for each participant by subtracting the number of CVD events likely to be prevented (CVD risk score × proportional effect of aspirin on CVD risk) from the number of major bleeds likely to be caused (major bleed risk score × proportional effect of aspirin on major bleeding risk) over 5 years. Results: 2.5% of women and 12.1% of men were likely to have a net benefit from aspirin treatment for 5 years if 1 CVD event was assumed to be equivalent in severity to 1 major bleed, increasing to 21.4% of women and 40.7% of men if 1 CVD event was assumed to be equivalent to 2 major bleeds. Net benefit subgroups had higher baseline CVD risk, higher levels of most established CVD risk factors, and lower levels of bleeding-specific risk factors than net harm subgroups. Limitations: Risk scores and effect estimates were uncertain. Effects of aspirin on cancer outcomes were not considered. Applicability to non-New Zealand populations was not assessed. Conclusion: For some persons without CVD, aspirin is likely to result in net benefit. Primary Funding Source: Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in 400 000 primary care patients in New Zealand: a derivation and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Most cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in use today were derived from cohorts established last century and with participants at higher risk but less socioeconomically and ethnically diverse than patients they are now applied to. We recruited a nationally representative cohort in New Zealand to develop equations relevant to patients in contemporary primary care and compared the performance of these new equations to equations that are recommended in the USA. METHODS: The PREDICT study automatically recruits participants in routine primary care when general practitioners in New Zealand use PREDICT software to assess their patients' risk profiles for cardiovascular disease, which are prospectively linked to national ICD-coded hospitalisation and mortality databases. The study population included male and female patients in primary care who had no prior cardiovascular disease, renal disease, or congestive heart failure. New equations predicting total cardiovascular disease risk were developed using Cox regression models, which included clinical predictors plus an area-based deprivation index and self-identified ethnicity. Calibration and discrimination performance of the equations were assessed and compared with 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs). The additional predictors included in new PREDICT equations were also appended to the PCEs to determine whether they were independent predictors in the equations from the USA. FINDINGS: Outcome events were derived for 401 752 people aged 30-74 years at the time of their first PREDICT risk assessment between Aug 27, 2002, and Oct 12, 2015, representing about 90% of the eligible population. The mean follow-up was 4·2 years, and a third of participants were followed for 5 years or more. 15 386 (4%) people had cardiovascular disease events (1507 [10%] were fatal, and 8549 [56%] met the PCEs definition of hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease) during 1 685 521 person-years follow-up. The median 5-year risk of total cardiovascular disease events predicted by the new equations was 2·3% in women and 3·2% in men. Multivariable adjusted risk increased by about 10% per quintile of socioeconomic deprivation. Maori, Pacific, and Indian patients were at 13-48% higher risk of cardiovascular disease than Europeans, and Chinese or other Asians were at 25-33% lower risk of cardiovascular disease than Europeans. The PCEs overestimated of hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease by about 40% in men and by 60% in women, and the additional predictors in the new equations were also independent predictors in the PCEs. The new equations were significantly better than PCEs on all performance metrics. INTERPRETATION: We constructed a large prospective cohort study representing typical patients in primary care in New Zealand who were recommended for cardiovascular disease risk assessment. Most patients are now at low risk of cardiovascular disease, which explains why the PCEs based mainly on old cohorts substantially overestimate risk. Although the PCEs and many other equations will need to be recalibrated to mitigate overtreatment of the healthy majority, they also need new predictors that include measures of socioeconomic deprivation and multiple ethnicities to identify vulnerable high-risk subpopulations that might otherwise be undertreated. FUNDING: Health Research Council of New Zealand, Heart Foundation of New Zealand, and Healthier Lives National Science Challenge.

Mortality associated with heart failure with preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction in a prospective international multi-ethnic cohort study.

Aims: Whether prevalence and mortality of patients with heart failure with preserved or mid-range (40-49%) ejection fraction (HFpEF and HFmREF) are similar to those of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), as reported in some epidemiologic studies, remains highly controversial. We determined and compared characteristics and outcomes for patients with HFpEF, HFmREF, and HFrEF in a prospective, international, multi-ethnic population. Methods and results: Prospective multi-centre longitudinal study in New Zealand (NZ) and Singapore. Patients with HF were assessed at baseline and followed over 2 years. The primary outcome was death from any cause. Secondary outcome was death and HF hospitalization. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare outcomes for patients with HFpEF, HFmrEF, and HFrEF. Of 2039 patients enrolled, 28% had HFpEF, 13% HFmrEF, and 59% HFrEF. Compared with HFrEF, patients with HFpEF were older (62 vs. 72 years), more commonly female (17% vs. 48%), and more likely to have a history of hypertension (61% vs. 78%) but less likely to have coronary artery disease (55% vs. 41%). During 2 years of follow-up, 343 (17%) patients died. Adjusting for age, sex, and clinical risk factors, patients with HFpEF had a lower risk of death compared with those with HFrEF (hazard ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.85). Plasma (NT-proBNP) was similarly related to mortality in both HFpEF, HFmrEF, and HFrEF independent of the co-variates listed and of ejection fraction. Results were similar for the composite endpoint of death or HF and were consistent between Singapore and NZ. Conclusion: These prospective multinational data showed that the prevalence of HFpEF within the HF population was lower than HFrEF. Death rate was comparable in HFpEF and HFmrEF and lower than in HFrEF. Plasma levels of NT-proBNP were independently and similarly predictive of death in the three HF phenotypes. Trial Registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRN12610000374066).

Screening for Atrial Fibrillation: A Report of the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration.

Approximately 10% of ischemic strokes are associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) first diagnosed at the time of stroke. Detecting asymptomatic AF would provide an opportunity to prevent these strokes by instituting appropriate anticoagulation. The AF-SCREEN international collaboration was formed in September 2015 to promote discussion and research about AF screening as a strategy to reduce stroke and death and to provide advocacy for implementation of country-specific AF screening programs. During 2016, 60 expert members of AF-SCREEN, including physicians, nurses, allied health professionals, health economists, and patient advocates, were invited to prepare sections of a draft document. In August 2016, 51 members met in Rome to discuss the draft document and consider the key points arising from it using a Delphi process. These key points emphasize that screen-detected AF found at a single timepoint or by intermittent ECG recordings over 2 weeks is not a benign condition and, with additional stroke factors, carries sufficient risk of stroke to justify consideration of anticoagulation. With regard to the methods of mass screening, handheld ECG devices have the advantage of providing a verifiable ECG trace that guidelines require for AF diagnosis and would therefore be preferred as screening tools. Certain patient groups, such as those with recent embolic stroke of uncertain source (ESUS), require more intensive monitoring for AF. Settings for screening include various venues in both the community and the clinic, but they must be linked to a pathway for appropriate diagnosis and management for screening to be effective. It is recognized that health resources vary widely between countries and health systems, so the setting for AF screening should be both country- and health system-specific. Based on current knowledge, this white paper provides a strong case for AF screening now while recognizing that large randomized outcomes studies would be helpful to strengthen the evidence base.

Annual Risk of Major Bleeding Among Persons Without Cardiovascular Disease Not Receiving Antiplatelet Therapy.

Importance: A decision to initiate aspirin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires consideration of both treatment benefits and harms. The most significant harm associated with aspirin is major bleeding, yet there is a paucity of data on bleeding risk in suitable community populations. Objective: To determine the risk of major bleeding among people without CVD who are not receiving antiplatelet therapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study of 359 166 individuals aged 30 to 79 years receiving primary care in New Zealand who had CVD risk assessment between 2002 and 2015. Participants were censored at the earliest date on which they had a first major bleeding event, died, or met any baseline cohort exclusion criteria or the study end date of December 31, 2015. Analyses were repeated after excluding people with medical conditions associated with increased bleeding risk (non-high-risk cohort; n=305 057) and after further excluding people receiving other medications associated with increased bleeding risk (nonmedication cohort; n=240 254). Exposures: Sex and age group in 10-year bands from 30 to 79 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk of a major bleeding event (hospitalization or death associated with bleeding); nonfatal gastrointestinal tract bleeding; and gastrointestinal tract bleeding-related case fatality. Results: Mean participant age was 54 years (SD, 10 years), 44% were women, and 57% were European. Among the 359 166 individuals in the baseline cohort, 3976 had a major bleeding event during 1 281 896 person-years of follow-up. Most had gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding (n=2910 [73%]). There were 274 fatal bleeding events (7%), of which 153 were intracerebral. The risk of a nonfatal GI bleeding event per 1000 person-years was 2.19 (95% CI, 2.11-2.27), 1.77 (95% CI, 1.69-1.85) and 1.61 (95% CI, 1.52-1.69), in the baseline, non-high-risk, and nonmedication cohorts, respectively. Case fatality associated with GI bleeding was 3.4% (95% CI, 2.2%-4.1%), 4.0% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.1%), and 4.6% (95% CI, 3.6%-6.0%) in the baseline, non-high-risk, and nonmedication cohorts, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: In a population not receiving antiplatelet therapy, the annual risk of major bleeding events and nonfatal major bleeding was estimated. These findings could inform population-level guidelines for primary prevention of CVD.

Clinical Characteristics and Burden of Risk Factors Among Patients With Early Onset Acute Coronary Syndromes: The ANZACS-QI New Zealand National Cohort (ANZACS-QI 17).

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular (CV) risk factor profiles of people experiencing acute coronary syndromes (ACS) vary with age, and in New Zealand (NZ), Maori and people of Pacific Island descent typically present with ACS at a younger age. We aimed to explore age- and ethnicity-related differences in CV risk factors in a large NZ cohort with first-time ACS. METHODS: The All NZ Acute Coronary Syndrome Quality Improvement program (ANZACS-QI) registry collects comprehensive data for patients admitted with ACS at NZ hospitals. This analysis includes patients with no prior atherosclerotic CV disease enrolled from 1 July, 2012 to 30 June, 2015. RESULTS: 14,190 patients had confirmed ACS, 8493 (60%) patients with no prior CVD comprised the study cohort. The mean age was 64 years, 25% were aged <55years, and 66% were male. Those aged <55years were more likely than older patients to be current smokers (48% vs 19%), have higher body mass index (BMI) (48% vs 34% with BMI≥30kg/m2), and higher total cholesterol:HDL ratios (≥4.0, 70% vs 50%), all p<0.001. Sixteen per cent of those <55years had diabetes; these patients often had a BMI≥30kg/m2 (67%) and higher median HbA1c than older patients with diabetes (69mmol/mol vs 55mmol/mol). Maori and people of Pacific Island descent were overrepresented in the younger age group; these patients had a very high risk factor burden. CONCLUSIONS: A quarter of NZ patients admitted to hospital with a first-time CV disease event are aged <55years. Younger patients have a very high risk factor burden: half are current smokers, half have a BMI≥30kg/m2, and 16% have diabetes.