CHESS-ALARM score to stratify decompensation risk in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients: An international multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: A combination of platelet and elastography (PE criteria) was proposed to identify compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients at risk of liver decompensation. We aim to validate and refine PE criteria by developing a new predictive score to predict decompensation in Asian cACLD patients. METHODS: An international cohort of 633 cACLD patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and esophagogastroduodenoscopy performed were included. We validated PE criteria to predict first liver decompensation using competing risk analysis, with death and hepatocellular carcinoma as competing events. We developed a predictive model using proportional subdistribution hazard regression. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and ALBI-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under operative characteristic curve (tAUC). RESULTS: Sixty patients developed decompensation over the median follow-up of 39 months. Favorable Baveno VI status ruled out cACLD patients at risk of liver decompensation. LSM > 25 kPa was suboptimal to predict cACLD patients who will develop liver decompensation. We developed CHESS-ALARM score by incorporating age, platelet, and gender into LSM. CHESS-ALARM score (tAUC = 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.94) has significantly higher accuracy than MELD (tAUC: 0.61), ALBI (tAUC: 0.62), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC: 0.70), and LSM > 25 kPa (tAUC: 0.54) to predict liver decompensation at 5 years (P < 0.05 for all). Patients with CHESS-ALARM score ≥ -0.37 had an 11-fold higher risk of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio = 11.2, 95% CI: 5.1-24.5). CONCLUSION: CHESS-ALARM score can be readily incorporated into clinical practice of cACLD patients to estimate individual risk of liver decompensation; however, more data are required in morbidly obese cACLD patients of nonviral etiology.

Translation of acute coronary syndrome therapies: from evidence to routine clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: The use of evidence-based therapies has improved the outcome of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but there is a time lag between the generation of clinical evidence and its application in routine clinical practice. We sought to quantify temporal lags in the lifecycle of American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) class IA ACS therapies. METHODS: Using current and historical ACC/AHA guideline publications, we retrieved publication dates of pivotal clinical trials (PCTs) and class IA guideline-recommended therapies for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and unstable angina (UA)/non-STEMI (NSTEMI). Clinical practice uptake data for each therapy were retrieved from the National Registry for Myocardial Infarction, Can Rapid Risk Stratification of Unstable Angina Patients Suppress Adverse Outcomes with Early Implementation of the ACC/AHA Guidelines, and Acute Coronary Treatment and Intervention Outcomes Network Registry-Get with the Guidelines, which are registries containing publicly available peer-reviewed data. Descriptive data were calculated and compared for each phase of the evidence lifecycle for both STEMI and UA/NSTEMI drug classifications. RESULTS: We identified 11 class IA- and 4 class IB/IC-recommended therapies for acute, inhospital, and discharge use for patients with STEMI or UA/NSTEMI. The median time lags were 2 years (interquartile range [IQR], 1-4 years) from PCT to practice guideline recommendation, 14 years (IQR, 11-15 years) from guideline recommendation to 90% practice uptake, and overall, a 16-year median (IQR, 13-19 years) from PCT to 90% practice uptake. CONCLUSIONS: The time of PCT publication to meaningful uptake of class IA ACS therapies into clinical practice took a median of 16 years. This significant time lag indicates systemic barriers to the translation of therapeutics into routine clinical practice.

Utility of different Baveno criteria to detect esophageal varices irrespective of their size in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Esophageal varices (EVs), irrespective of size, are the most-reliable indicators of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH) in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). While non-invasive tools (NITs) accurately identify those with varices needing treatment (VNTs), their role in identifying any EVs in patients with cACLD is not known. METHODS: Patients with cACLD with reliable liver stiffness measurements (LSM), blood parameters and gastroscopy were retrospectively recruited from a multinational cohort. The performance of Baveno-VI (LSM > 20kPa and platelet count < 150,000/mm3) and expanded Baveno-VI criteria (LSM > 25kPa or platelet count < 110,000/mm3) was assessed to detect VNTs as well as any EVs. This performance was compared with the Baveno-VII possible CSPH criteria (LSM ≥ 15 kPa and platelet ≤ 150,000/mm3) to evaluate its utility in detecting any EVs. RESULTS: Patients with cACLD (n = 1200) of predominantly viral etiology (hepatitis B virus, 269; hepatitis C virus, 564; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, 145; alcoholic liver disease, 130; other, 92) were included. Any EVs and VNTs were present in 514 (42.8%) and 70 (5.8%) patients, respectively. The Baveno-VI, expanded Baveno-VI and Baveno-VII criteria missed 29/514 (5.6%), 115/514 (22.4%) and 19/514 (3.7%) patients with any EVs, respectively, whereas they misclassified 517/686 (75.4%), 211/686 (30.8%) and 598/686 (87.4%) patients with no EVs as having a high risk of EVs. The Baveno-VI, expanded Baveno-VI and possible CSPH criteria missed 3/70 (4.3%), 15/70 (21.4%) and 0/70 (0%) VNTs, respectively. CONCLUSION: Both original Baveno-VI and Baveno-VII criteria were highly sensitive in detecting varices in cACLD, albeit with high misclassification rates.

Novel albumin, bilirubin and platelet criteria for the exclusion of high-risk varices in compensated advanced chronic liver disease: A validation study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Availability of transient elastography (TE) limits the application of Baveno-VI criteria. In a derivation study, the ABP criteria (Albumin >40 g/l, Bilirubin <22 µmol/l and Platelet >114,000/µl) had been shown to perform well in identifying compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients without high-risk varices (HRV). We aim to externally validate this novel ABP criteria for the exclusion of HRVs among cACLD patients. METHODS: Data was retrospectively collected from consecutive cACLD patients with paired TE and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) performed between 2011 and 2017 in Changi General Hospital, Singapore. We estimate the discriminative ability of ABP criteria in validation cohort using AUROC and calibration-in-the-large. We subsequently compare the performance between ABP and Baveno-VI criteria in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Among 314 patients included in our validation cohort, 32 (10.2%) had HRV on screening EGD. Application of ABP criteria within this validation cohort has increased discriminative ability than the derivation cohort. The AUROC of validation and derivation cohort were 0.68 (0.60-0.76) and 0.66 (0.60-0.76), respectively. The mean and standard error for calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope were -0.08 (0.22) and 0.93 (0.26) respectively. The ABP criteria had excellent performance in excluding HRV and will spare more screening EGDs than the Baveno-VI criteria (39.2% vs 27.4%, p < 0.001), without missing more HRVs. CONCLUSION: We validated the performance of ABP criteria for the exclusion of HRVs in cACLD patients. ABP criteria is superior to Baveno-VI criteria by sparing more screening EGD without the need of TE.

Exposure Matching of Pediatric Anti-infective Drugs: Review of Drugs Submitted to the Food and Drug Administration for Pediatric Approval.

PURPOSE: Over the last decade, few new antibiotics have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for pediatric use. For most anti-infective agents, including antibiotics, extrapolation of efficacy from adults to children is possible if the disease and therapeutic exposures are similar between the 2 populations. This approach reduces the number of studies required in children, but relies heavily on exposure matching between children and adults. Failures in exposure matching can lead to delays in pediatric approvals of new anti-infective agents. We sought to determine the extent of exposure matching, defined by a comparison of area under the concentration-time curve, between children and adults, for anti-infective drug products submitted to the FDA for approval. METHODS: We reviewed anti-infective submissions to the FDA (2002-2014) for pediatric indication. We included drug products administered via oral, intravenous, or intramuscular administration routes, and those with AUC estimates for children in available FDA reports. Our main outcome of interest was the proportion of drugs with median (or mean) pediatric AUC within 20% of the median (or mean) reported adult value. FINDINGS: We identified 29 drug products that met inclusion criteria, 14 (48%) of which had mean (or median) AUCs of all submitted age groups within 20% of that in adults. Only route of administration and drug class were associated with pediatric AUC within 20% of adult AUC. IMPLICATIONS: Future research is needed to define criteria for and predictors of successful exposure matching of anti-infectives between children and adults.