Burden of liver complications related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in China from 2005 to 2019: Observations from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2019.

AIM: To assess the burden of liver complications related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (LC-NAFLD) from 2005 to 2019 in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, 2019, to present contemporary and varying profiles of China's LC-NAFLD burden. The Joinpoint Regression model and Gaussian process regression were, respectively, used to estimate the annual percentage change in prevalence rates and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates, and the relationship between the sociodemographic index (SDI) and age-standardized rates of LC-NAFLD. RESULTS: In 2019, China had 293.42 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 263.69-328.44) LC-NAFLD cases with a prevalence rate and DALYs of 20.63 (95% UI: 23.09-18.54) per 1000 people and 591.03 thousand (95% UI: 451.25-737.33), respectively. North China had the highest prevalence but the lowest DALYs of LC-NAFLD, whereas Southwest China had the lowest prevalence but the highest DALYs. LC-NAFLD were more common in men than in women (male: female ratio, 1.27) in 2019. From 2005 to 2019, the prevalence of NAFLD cases increased by 68.32% (from 174.32 million in 2005 to 293.42 million in 2019), mainly because of an age-specific prevalence rate increase. CONCLUSION: The LC-NAFLD burden in China is substantial and has increased markedly over the past 15 years. Effective measures for low SDI regions and men are needed to address the rapidly increasing NAFLD burden.

Can global or national disability weights represent provincial level?

BACKGROUND: A universal set of disability weights(DWs) is mainly based on the survey of North America, Australia and Europe, whereas the participants in Asia was limited. The debate hasn't yet settled whether a universal DW is desirable or useful.The focus of the debate is its representativenes-s.After all, the DWs come from people's subjective evaluation of pain, and they may vary according to cultural background.The differences of the DWs could have implications for the magnitude or ranking of disease burdens.The DWs of Anhui Province has not been completely presented.This paper aims to obtain the DWs suitable for the general population of Anhui Province of China, and attempts to explore the differences between different DWs by comparing the DWs with the similar-cultural background and the DWs with cross-cultural background. METHODS: A web-based survey was conducted to estimate the DWs for 206 health states of Anhui province in 2020. Paired comparison (PC) data were analyzed and anchored by probit regression and fitting loess model. We compared the DWs in Anhui with other provinces in China and those in Global burden of disease (GBD) and Japan. RESULTS: Compared with Anhui province, the proportion of health states which showed 2 times or more differences ranged from 1.94% (Henan) to 11.17% (Sichuan) in China and domestic provinces. It was 19.88% in Japan and 21.51% in GBD 2013 respectively. In Asian countries or regions, most of the health states with top 15 DWs belonged to the category of mental, behavioral, and substance use disorders. But in GBD, most were infectious diseases and cancer. The differences of DWs in neighboring provinces were smaller than other geographically distant provinces or countries. CONCLUSION: PC responses were largely consistent across very distinct settings,but the exceptions do need to be faced squarely.The differences of DWs among similar-cultural regions were smaller than cross-cultural regions. There is an urgent need for relevant gold standards.

Trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality and years of life lost in China and its provinces from 2005 to 2020.

To examine the trends of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in China and its provinces from 2005 to 2020, our study used data from China National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) to estimate the number and rate of mortality and YLL of NPC by age and sex. We calculated average annual percent change (AAPC) to describe the trend of NPC mortality and YLL over time. We also analyzed the proportion of NPC deaths in all cancer deaths and explored the drivers of change in NPC deaths by decomposition analysis. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of NPC in China had a significant downward trend from 2.0/100 000 in 2005 to 1.4/100 000 in 2020 (AAPC = -2.4, P < .05). Age-standardized YLL rate also showed the similar trends (AAPC = -2.8, P < .05). Southern provinces including Guangdong (163.9/100 000), Guangxi (130.5/100 000), and Hainan (105.6/100 000) had the highest YLL rate in 2020. The mortality and YLL rate increased with age and males were higher than females. From 2005 to 2020, the proportion of NPC deaths in all cancer deaths remained stable at around 1.0% in China. The total number of deaths of NPC increased by 7.3%, of which age-specific mortality, population growth, and population aging accounted for -46.2%, 8.5% and 45.0%, respectively. NPC remains a significant public health issue in China southern provinces and tailored prevention and control strategies should be strengthened to reduce the burden of premature mortality of NPC in high risk areas.

Spatiotemporal trends and ecological determinants of cardiovascular mortality among 2844 counties in mainland China, 2006-2020: a Bayesian modeling study of national mortality registries.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in China. No previous study has reported CVD mortality at county-level, and little was known about the nonmedical ecological factors of CVD mortality at such small scale in mainland China. Understanding the spatiotemporal variations of CVD mortality and examining its nonmedical ecological factors would be of great importance to tailor local public health policies. METHODS: By using national mortality registration data in China, this study used hierarchical spatiotemporal Bayesian model to demonstrate spatiotemporal distribution of CVD mortality in 2844 counties during 2006 to 2020 and investigate how nonmedical ecological determinants have affected CVD mortality inequities from the spatial perspectives. RESULTS: During 2006-2020, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CVD decreased from 284.77 per 100,000 in 2006 to 241.34 per 100,000 in 2020. Among 2844 counties, 1144 (40.22%) were hot spots counties with a higher CVD mortality risk compared to the national average and located mostly in northeast, north central, and westernmost regions; on the contrary, 1551 (54.53%) were cold spots counties and located mostly in south and southeast coastal counties. CVD mortality risk decreased from 2006 to 2020 was larger in counties where CVD mortality rate had been higher in 2006 in most of the counties, vice versa. Nationwide, nighttime light intensity (NTL) was the major influencing factor of CVD mortality, a higher NTL appeared to be negatively associated with a lower CVD mortality, with one unit increase in NTL, and the CVD mortality risk will decrease 11% (relative risk of NTL was estimated as 0.89 with 95% confidence interval of 0.83-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial between-county discrepancies of CVD mortality distribution were observed during past 15 years in mainland China. Nonmedical ecological determinants were estimated to significantly explain the overall and local spatiotemporal patterns of this CVD mortality risk. Targeted considerations are needed to integrate primary care with clinical care through intensifying further strategies to narrow unequally distribution of CVD mortality at local scale. The approach to county-level analysis with small area models has the potential to provide novel insights into Chinese disease-specific mortality burden.

Eye-Preserving Therapies for Advanced Retinoblastoma: A Multicenter Cohort of 1678 Patients in China.

PURPOSE: This study attempted to estimate the impact of eye-preserving therapies for the long-term prognosis of patients with advanced retinoblastoma with regard to overall survival and ocular salvage. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study covering all 31 provinces (38 retinoblastoma treating centers) of mainland China. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand six hundred seventy-eight patients diagnosed with group D or E retinoblastoma from January 2006 through May 2016. METHODS: Chart review was performed. The patients were divided into primary enucleation and eye-preserving groups, and they were followed up for survival status. The impact of initial treatment on survival was evaluated by Cox analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall survival and final eye preservation. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 43.9 months, 196 patients (12%) died, and the 5-year overall survival was 86%. In total, the eyeball preservation rate was 48%. In this cohort, 1172 patients (70%) had unilateral retinoblastoma, whereas 506 patients (30%) had bilateral disease. For patients with unilateral disease, 570 eyes (49%) underwent primary enucleation, and 602 patients (51%) received eye-preserving therapies initially. During the follow-up (median, 45.6 months), 59 patients (10%) from the primary enucleation group and 56 patients (9.3%) from the eye-preserving group died. Multivariate Cox analyses indicated no significant difference in overall survival between the 2 groups (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-1.84; P = 0.250). For patients with bilateral disease, 95 eyes (19%) underwent primary enucleation, and 411 patients (81%) received eye-preserving therapies initially. During the follow-up (median, 40.1 months), 12 patients (13%) from the primary enucleation group and 69 patients (17%) from the eye-preserving group died. For bilateral retinoblastoma with the worse eye classified as group E, patients undergoing primary enucleation exhibited better overall survival (HR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.10-5.01; P = 0.027); however, this survival advantage was not evident until passing 22.6 months after initial diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Eye-preserving therapies have been used widely for advanced retinoblastoma in China. Patients with bilateral disease whose worse eye was classified as group E and who initially underwent eye-preserving therapies exhibited a worse overall survival. The choice of primary treatment for advanced retinoblastoma should be weighed carefully.

Left bundle branch pacing in heart failure patients with left bundle branch block: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The clinical benefit of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in heart failure patients with left bundle branch block (LBBB) has been demonstrated. However, a nonresponse rate of CRT nearly 1/3. Recent studies have reported left bundle branch pacing (LBBP) has achieved remarkable effect in CRT. This study aim to explore the efficacy and safety of LBBP in heart failure patients with LBBB. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of science, and CNKI databases for studies about LBBP in heart failure patients with LBBB. QRS duration (QRSd), New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) concentration, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD), pacing threshold and other related data were extracted and summarized. RESULTS: A total of 6 studies were included, and the success rate of LBBP was 93.2%. Compared with baseline, LBBP could shorten QRSd (MD = 61.23, 95% CI: 58.21-64.25, p < .01). Echocardiographic parameters including LVEF and LVEDD significantly improved (both with p < .01). Clinical outcomes including NYHA classification and BNP dramatically reduced (both with p < .01). Compared with biventricular pacing (BVP), LBBP could further improve QRSd, LVEF, LVEDD, and NYHA classification (all with p < .01). However, the pacing threshold at follow-up was 0.06 V higher than that at baseline (p < .01), and the incidence of complications was 2.4%. CONCLUSIONS: LBBP is effective and safe in heart failure patients with LBBB, whether it is better than BVP needs to be verified by randomized controlled trials.

Estimating causes of out-of-hospital deaths in China: application of SmartVA methods.

BACKGROUND: Most deaths in China occur at home, making it difficult to collect reliable cause of death (CoD) information. Verbal autopsy (VA) was applied using the SmartVA tool to a sample of home deaths in China to explore its feasibility as a means of improving the quality of CoD data. METHODS: The study was carried out in 22 districts in 9 provinces, located in north-east, central, and western areas of China during 2017 and 2018. Trained interviewers selected suitable respondents in each household to collect information using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) shortened and validated electronic VA questionnaire on tablets. The CoD was diagnosed from the interview data using the SmartVA-Analyze 2.0 software (Tariff 2.0). RESULTS: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) dominated the leading causes of death in all age groups and for both sexes. After redistribution of undetermined causes, stroke (24%), ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (21%), chronic respiratory diseases (11%), and lung cancer (6%) were the leading causes of death. The cause fractions for level-one cause categories and ranking of specific causes were similar between SmartVA and results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. CONCLUSION: Evidence from this large pilot study suggests that SmartVA is a feasible and plausible tool and could be a valuable tool to improve the quality and standardization of CoD information across China.

Improvement in life expectancy for ischemic heart diseases by achieving daily ambient PM2.5 standards in China.

BACKGROUND: The potential impacts of daily ambient fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) exposure on year of life lost (YLL) due to ischemic heart diseases (IHD) remain uncertain. We aimed to estimate the improvement in IHD-related life expectancy by attaining the daily air quality standards of ambient PM2.5 in China. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study was based on daily mortality data covering 96 Chinese cities from 2013 to 2016. Regional- and national-associations between IHD-related YLLs and daily PM2.5 were estimated by generalized additive models. We further evaluated the IHD-related avoidable YLLs with an assumption that the daily PM2.5 was below the ambient air quality standards of World Health Organization (WHO) and China, and calculated the improvement of life expectancy by dividing the avoidable YLLs by the overall number of IHD mortality. We totally recorded 1,485,140 IHD deaths from 2013 to 2016. At the national level, we found a positive association between IHD-related YLLs and daily PM2.5. Per 10 µg/m3 increment of four-day averaged ambient PM2.5 related to an increase of 0.40 IHD-related YLLs (95% CI: 0.28, 0.51). By achieving the WHO's air quality guideline, we estimated that an averaged number of 1346.94 (95% CI: 932.61, 1761.27) YLLs can be avoided for the IHD deaths in each city. On average, the life expectancy can be improved by 0.15 years (95% CI: 0.11, 0.19) for each death. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides a nationwide picture of the life expectancy improvements by reaching the daily PM2.5 standards in China, indicating that people can live longer in an environment with higher air quality.

Potential gains in life expectancy by attaining daily ambient fine particulate matter pollution standards in mainland China: A modeling study based on nationwide data.

BACKGROUND: Ambient fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is one leading cause of disease burden, but no study has quantified the association between daily PM2.5 exposure and life expectancy. We aimed to assess the potential benefits in life expectancy by attaining the daily PM2.5 standards in 72 cities of China during 2013-2016. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We applied a two-stage approach for the analysis. At the first stage, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) with a Gaussian link to examine the city-specific short-term association between daily PM2.5 and years of life lost (YLL); at the second stage, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to generate the regional and national estimations. We further estimated the potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) by assuming that ambient PM2.5 has met the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS, 75 µg/m3) or the ambient air quality guideline (AQG) of the World Health Organization (WHO) (25 µg/m3). We also calculated the attributable fraction (AF), which denoted the proportion of YLL attributable to a higher-than-standards daily mean PM2.5 concentration. During the period from January 18, 2013 to December 31, 2016, we recorded 1,226,849 nonaccidental deaths in the study area. We observed significant associations between daily PM2.5 and YLL: each 10 µg/m3 increase in three-day-averaged (lag02) PM2.5 concentrations corresponded to an increment of 0.43 years of life lost (95% CI: 0.29-0.57). We estimated that 168,065.18 (95% CI: 114,144.91-221,985.45) and 68,684.95 (95% CI: 46,648.79-90,721.11) years of life lost can be avoided by achieving WHO's AQG and Chinese NAAQS in the study area, which corresponded to 0.14 (95% CI: 0.09-0.18) and 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04-0.07) years of gain in life expectancy for each death in these cities. We observed differential regional estimates across the 7 regions, with the highest gains in the Northwest region (0.28 years of gain [95% CI: 0.06-0.49]) and the lowest in the North region (0.08 [95% CI: 0.02-0.15]). Furthermore, using WHO's AQG and Chinese NAAQS as the references, we estimated that 1.00% (95% CI: 0.68%-1.32%) and 0.41% (95% CI: 0.28%-0.54%) of YLL could be attributable to the PM2.5 exposure at the national level. Findings from this study were mainly limited by the unavailability of data on individual PM2.5 exposure. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that significantly longer life expectancy could be achieved by a reduction in the ambient PM2.5 concentrations. It also highlights the need to formulate a stricter ambient PM2.5 standard at both national and regional levels of China to protect the population's health.

Mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in China and its provinces, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Public health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision making and monitor progress on health at the province level. METHODS: We used the methods in GBD 2017 to analyse health patterns in the 34 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), summary exposure values (SEVs), and attributable risk. We compared the observed results with expected values estimated based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS: Stroke and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of death and DALYs at the national level in China in 2017. Age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population decreased by 33·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 29·8 to 37·4) for stroke and increased by 4·6% (-3·3 to 10·7) for ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised stroke, ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver cancer were the five leading causes of YLLs in 2017. Musculoskeletal disorders, mental health disorders, and sense organ diseases were the three leading causes of YLDs in 2017, and high systolic blood pressure, smoking, high-sodium diet, and ambient particulate matter pollution were among the leading four risk factors contributing to deaths and DALYs. All provinces had higher than expected DALYs per 100 000 population for liver cancer, with the observed to expected ratio ranging from 2·04 to 6·88. The all-cause age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population were lower than expected in all provinces in 2017, and among the top 20 level 3 causes were lower than expected for ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, headache disorder, and low back pain. The largest percentage change at the national level in age-standardised SEVs among the top ten leading risk factors was in high body-mass index (185%, 95% UI 113·1 to 247·7]), followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (88·5%, 66·4 to 116·4). INTERPRETATION: China has made substantial progress in reducing the burden of many diseases and disabilities. Strategies targeting chronic diseases, particularly in the elderly, should be prioritised in the expanding Chinese health-care system. FUNDING: China National Key Research and Development Program and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring the completeness of death registration in 2844 Chinese counties in 2018.

BACKGROUND: Death registration completeness has never been assessed at the county level in China. Such analyses would provide critical intelligence to monitor the performance of the vital registration system and yield adjustment factors to correct death registration data, thereby increasing their policy utility. METHODS: We estimated the completeness of death registration for 31 provinces and 2844 counties of China in 2018 based on death data from the China Cause of Death Reporting System (CDRS) by using the empirical completeness method. We computed the root mean square difference (RMSD) of county-level completeness compared with provincial-level completeness to study intra-provincial variations. A two-level (province and county) logistic regression model was fitted to explore the association between county-level registration completeness and a set of covariates reflecting socioeconomic status, healthcare quality, and specific strategies and regulations designed to improve registration. RESULTS: In 2018, the overall death registration completeness for the CDRS in China was 74.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 66.2-80.4), with very little difference for males and females. Geographical differences in completeness were higher across counties than across provinces. The county-level completeness ranged from 2.4% (95% UI 1.0-5.0%) in Burang County, Tibet, to 100.0% (95% UI 99.9-100.0%) in Guandu District, Yunnan. The coastal provinces of Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Fujian, with higher overall completeness, contained counties with low completeness; conversely, the underdeveloped provinces of Guangxi and Guizhou, with lower overall completeness, included some counties with high completeness. GDP, education, population density, minority population, healthcare access, and registration strategies were important drivers of the geographical differences in registration completeness. CONCLUSIONS: There are marked inequalities in registration completeness at the county level and within provinces in China. The socioeconomic condition, the implementation of specific registration-enhancing initiatives, and the availability and quality of medical care were the primary drivers of the observed geographical variation. A more strategic approach, with more research, is required to identify the main reasons for death under-reporting, especially in the poorer performing counties, to guide remedial action.

New Criterion to Evaluate Acute-on-Chronic Kidney Injury Based on the Creatinine Reference Change.

BACKGROUND: The lack of consensus criteria of acute on chronic kidney injury (ACKI) affects the judgment for its clinical prognosis. METHODS: In this study, we analyzed the data from 711,615 hospitalized adults who had at least 2 serum creatinine (SCr) tests within 30 days. We estimated the reference change value (RCV) of SCr given initial SCr level in adults without known risks of acute kidney injury other than chronic kidney disease (CKD). We proposed a criterion for ACKI based on the RCV of SCr (cROCK), which defined ACKI as a ≥25% increase in SCr in 7 days. We validated cROCK by its association with the risks of in-hospital mortality, death after discharge, and CKD progression in a large cohort of patients with CKD stage 3. RESULTS: In 21,661 patients with CKD stage 3, a total of 3,145 (14.5%), 1,512 (7.0%), and 221 (1.0%) ACKI events were detected by both cROCK and Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO), cROCK only, and KDIGO only, respectively. cROCK detected 40% more ACKI events than KDIGO. Compared with patients without ACKI by both definitions, those with cROCK- but not KDIGO-defined ACKI had a significantly increased risk of in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 5.53; 95% CI 3.75-8.16), death after discharge (HR 1.51; 95% CI 1.21-1.83), and CKD progression (OR 5.65; 95% CI 3.05-10.48). CONCLUSIONS: RCV-based criterion (cROCK) for ACKI is clinically valid in that it has a substantially improved sensitivity in identifying patients with high risk of adverse outcomes.

Unintentional drowning mortality in China, 2006-2013.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological characteristics and recent trends in unintentional drowning at the national level in China are unreported. METHODS: Using data from the Disease Surveillance Points system, the overall, sex-, location-, age- and cause-specific age-standardised mortality from unintentional drowning in China were calculated and compared. Linear regression was used to examine the significance of mortality trend changes over time. RESULTS: The average mortality was 4.05 per 100 000 persons between 2006 and 2013. Men and rural residents had much higher drowning mortality rates than women and urban residents at all time points. Drowning following a fall into natural water was the most common mechanism (46% of all drowning deaths). The overall drowning mortality rate remained stable for all subgroups except for distinct decreases in urban residents, children aged 5-9 years, and other specified and unspecified drowning (-10%, -36% and -25%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The overall drowning mortality rate remained high and stable in China between 2006 and 2013. Effective prevention measures like removing or covering water hazards, wearing personal floatation devices, supervision of children, and teaching survival swimming and resuscitation skills should be implemented nationwide.

A New Criterion for Pediatric AKI Based on the Reference Change Value of Serum Creatinine.

BACKGROUND: Current definitions of AKI do not take into account serum creatinine's high variability in children. METHODS: We analyzed data from 156,075 hospitalized children with at least two creatinine tests within 30 days. We estimated reference change value (RCV) of creatinine on the basis of age and initial creatinine level in children without kidney disease or known AKI risk, and we used these data to develop a model for detecting pediatric AKI on the basis of RCV of creatinine. We defined pediatric AKI according to pediatric reference change value optimized for AKI in children (pROCK) as creatinine increase beyond RCV of creatinine, which was estimated as the greater of 20 µmol/L or 30% of the initial creatinine level. RESULTS: Of 102,817 children with at least two serum creatinine tests within 7 days, 5432 (5.3%) had AKI as defined by pROCK compared with 15,647 (15.2%) and 10,446 (10.2%) as defined by pediatric RIFLE (pRIFLE) and Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO), respectively. Children with pROCK-defined AKI had significantly increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 3.56; 95% confidence interval, 3.15 to 4.04) compared with those without AKI. About 66% of patients with pRIFLE-defined AKI and 51% of patients with KDIGO-defined AKI, mostly children with initial creatinine level of <30 µmol/L, were reclassified as non-AKI by pROCK, and mortality risk in these children was comparable with risk in those without AKI by all definitions. CONCLUSIONS: pROCK criterion improves detection of "true" AKI in children compared with earlier definitions that may lead to pediatric AKI overdiagnosis.

Burden of headache disorders in China, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Headache has emerged as a global public health concern. However, little is known about the burden from headache disorders in China. The aim of this work was to quantify the spatial patterns and temporal trends of burden from headache disorders in China. METHODS: Following the general analytic strategy used in the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study, we analyzed the prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of headache and its main subcategories, including migraine and tension-type headache (TTH), by age, sex, year and 33 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: Almost 112.4 million individuals were estimated to have headache disorders in 1990 in China, which rose to 482.7 million in 2017. The all-age YLDs increased by 36.2% from 1990 to 2017. Migraine caused 5.5 million YLDs, much higher than TTH (1.1 million) in 2017. The age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rate of headache remained stable and high in 2017 compared with 1990, respectively. The proportion of total headache YLDs in all diseases increased from 1990 to 2017 by 5.4%. A female preponderance was observed for YLDs and the YLDs were mainly in people aged 20~54 years. CONCLUSIONS: Headache remains a huge health burden in China from 1990 to 2017, with prevalence and YLDs rates higher in eastern provinces than western provinces. The substantial increase in headache cases and YLDs represents an ongoing challenge in Chinese population. Our results can help shape and inform headache research and public policy throughout China, especially for females and middle-aged people.

Associations Between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and Daily Cause-specific Mortality: Evidence from 272 Chinese Cities.

BACKGROUND: There has been a long history of debate regarding whether ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) directly affects human health. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide time-series analysis in 272 major Chinese cities (2013-2015) to evaluate the associations between short-term exposure to NO2 and cause-specific mortality. We used the overdispersed generalized linear model together with the Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the associations between NO2 and mortality at the national and regional levels. We examined two-pollutant models with adjustment of fine particles, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and ozone to evaluate robustness for the effects of NO2. RESULTS: At the national-average level, we observed linear and positive associations between NO2 and mortality from all causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases. A 10 µg/m increase in 2-day average concentrations of NO2 would lead to increments of 0.9% (95% posterial interval [PI], 0.7%, 1.1%) in mortality from total nonaccidental causes, 0.9% (95% PI, 0.7%, 1.2%) from total cardiovascular disease, 1.4% (95% PI, 0.8%, 2.0%) from hypertension, 0.9% (95% PI, 0.6%, 1.2%) from coronary heart disease, 0.9% (95% PI, 0.5%, 1.2%) from stroke, 1.2% (95% PI, 0.9%, 1.5%) from total respiratory diseases, and 1.6% (95% PI, 1.1%, 2.0%) from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. There were no appreciable differences in estimates from single-pollutant and two-pollutant models. The associations were stronger in the south of China, in the elderly, and in females. CONCLUSIONS: The present study provided robust epidemiologic evidence of associations between day-to-day NO2 and mortality from total natural causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases that might be independent of other criteria air pollutants.

Poisoning deaths in China, 2006-2016.

OBJECTIVE: To provide a comprehensive overview of poisoning mortality patterns in China. METHODS: Using mortality data from the Chinese national disease surveillance points system, we examined trends in poisoning mortality by intent and substance from 2006 to 2016. Differences over time between urban and rural residents among different age groups and across external causes of poisoning were quantified using negative binomial models for males and females separately. RESULTS: In 2016, there were 4936 poisoning deaths in a sample of 84 060 559 people (5.9 per 100 000 people; 95% confidence interval: 5.6-6.2). Age-adjusted poisoning mortality dropped from 9.2 to 5.4 per 100 000 people between 2006 and 2016. Males, rural residents and older adults consistently had higher poisoning mortality than females, urban residents and children or young adults. Most pesticide-related deaths (34 996 out of 39 813) were suicides among persons older than 15 years, although such suicides decreased between 2006 and 2016 (from 6.1 per 100 000 people to 3.6 for males and from 5.8 to 3.0 for females). In 2016, alcohol caused 29.3% (600/2050) of unintentional poisoning deaths in men aged 25-64 years. During the study period, unintentional fatal drug poisoning by narcotics and psychodysleptics in individuals aged 25-44 years increased from 0.4 per 100 000 people to 0.7 for males and from 0.05 to 0.13 for females. CONCLUSION: Despite substantial decreases in mortality, poisoning is still a public health threat in China. This warrants further research to explore causative factors and to develop and implement interventions targeting at-risk populations.

Trends in traumatic brain injury mortality in China, 2006-2013: A population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China's Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural), and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China. METHOD AND FINDINGS: Mortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1) Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13). (2) Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3) Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0-14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for the other age groups. (4) TBI mortality attributed to motor vehicle crashes increased for pedestrians and motorcyclists in all 7 age groups from 2006 to 2013. Our analysis was limited by the availability and quality of data in the DSPs dataset, including lack of injury-related socio-economic factors, policy factors, and individual and behavioral factors. The dataset also may be incomplete in TBI death recording or contain misclassification of mortality data. CONCLUSIONS: TBI constitutes a serious public health threat in China. Further studies should explore the reasons for the particularly high risk of TBI mortality among particular populations, as well as the reasons for recent increases in certain subgroups, and should develop solutions to address these challenges. Interventions proven to work in other cultures should be introduced and implemented nationwide. Examples of these in the domain of motor vehicle crashes include policy change and enforcement of laws concerning helmet use for motorcyclists and bicyclists, car seat and booster seat use for child motor vehicle passengers, speed limit and drunk driving laws, and alcohol ignition interlock use. Examples to prevent falls, especially among elderly individuals, include exercise programs, home modification to reduce fall risk, and multifaceted interventions to prevent falls in all age groups.

Can China achieve a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030?

BACKGROUND: The United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by one third. To assess the feasibility of this goal in China, we projected premature mortality in 2030 of NCDs under different risk factor reduction scenarios. METHODS: We used China results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 as empirical data for projections. Deaths between 1990 and 2013 for cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and other NCDs were extracted, along with population numbers. We disaggregated deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to high systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, high body mass index (BMI), high total cholesterol, physical inactivity, and high fasting glucose. Risk factor exposure and deaths by NCD category were projected to 2030. Eight simulated scenarios were also constructed to explore how premature mortality will be affected if the World Health Organization's targets for risk factors reduction are achieved by 2030. RESULTS: If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from NCDs would increase from 3.11 million to 3.52 million, but the premature mortality rate would decrease by 13.1%. In the combined scenario in which all risk factor reduction targets are achieved, nearly one million deaths among persons 30 to 70 years old due to NCDs would be avoided, and the one-third reduction goal would be achieved for all NCDs combined. More specifically, the goal would be achieved for CVD and chronic respiratory diseases, but not for cancer and diabetes. Reduction in the prevalence of high SBP, smoking, and high BMI played an important role in achieving the goals. CONCLUSIONS: Reaching the goal of a one-third reduction in premature mortality from NCDs is possible by 2030 if certain targets for risk factor intervention are reached, but more efforts are required to achieve risk factor reduction.

[The survival and development conditions of community-based organizations for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among men who have sex with men in three Chinese cities].

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the survival and development conditions of community-based organizations (CBOs) for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chinese cities including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chongqing. METHODS: This study employed both qualitative (focus groups) and quantitative (questionnaire survey) methods to obtain information from 15 MSM CBOs in three Chinese cities. RESULTS: The mean work time of the 15 CBOs for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among MSM was 6.7 years (2.1-11.3 years), and the majority of their funds was from international cooperation projects (80 447 000 RMB, 73.0%) from 2006 to 2013. The survival cost of MSM CBOs apart from expenditure of activities was 2 240-435 360 RMB per year. As it was shown in the graph, the survival and development of MSM CBOs was closely related to the development of international cooperation projects. There was a few small size MSM CBOs taking part in the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS and their work content was limited before 2006. From 2006 to 2008, some international cooperation projects were launched in China, such as the China Global Fund AIDS project and the China-Gates Foundation HIV Prevention Cooperation program. As a result, the number of MSM CBOs was increased sharply, and both the scale and 2012, the performance of these programs further promote the establishment of new MSM CBOs and the development of all MSM CBOs with regard to the work places, full-time staffs, work contents, work patterns and the specific targeted population. After 2012, most international cooperation programs were completed and the local department of disease prevention and control continued to cooperate with MSM CBOs. However, the degree of support funds from the local department was different among different regions. Where the funds were below the half of program funds, the development of MSM CBOs ceased and work slowed down. Besides, there were still some constraints for the survival and development of MSM CBOs, such as insufficient funds, no legitimate identity, the outflow of talents and the unsustainable development. CONCLUSION: The survival and development of MSM CBOs was closely related to the development of international cooperation projects in China. Some departments of disease prevention and control took over the cooperation with MSM CBOs when the international cooperation projects were completed. Given the survival cost of MSM CBOs and the constraints of MSM CBOs development, it needs further investigation on how to ensure the local departments of disease prevention and control to take over the cooperation with MSM CBOs and how to cooperate with MSM CBOs.