Analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of imperfect diagnostics to inform outbreak response: Application to the 2017 plague epidemic in Madagascar.

During outbreaks, the lack of diagnostic "gold standard" can mask the true burden of infection in the population and hamper the allocation of resources required for control. Here, we present an analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of diagnostics when multiple yet imperfect diagnostic tests are available. We apply it to laboratory results of 2,136 samples, analyzed with 3 diagnostic tests (based on up to 7 diagnostic outcomes), collected during the 2017 pneumonic (PP) and bubonic plague (BP) outbreak in Madagascar, which was unprecedented both in the number of notified cases, clinical presentation, and spatial distribution. The extent of these outbreaks has however remained unclear due to nonoptimal assays. Using latent class methods, we estimate that 7% to 15% of notified cases were Yersinia pestis-infected. Overreporting was highest during the peak of the outbreak and lowest in the rural settings endemic to Y. pestis. Molecular biology methods offered the best compromise between sensitivity and specificity. The specificity of the rapid diagnostic test was relatively low (PP: 82%, BP: 85%), particularly for use in contexts with large quantities of misclassified cases. Comparison with data from a subsequent seasonal Y. pestis outbreak in 2018 reveal better test performance (BP: specificity 99%, sensitivity: 91%), indicating that factors related to the response to a large, explosive outbreak may well have affected test performance. We used our framework to optimize the case classification and derive consolidated epidemic trends. Our approach may help reduce uncertainties in other outbreaks where diagnostics are imperfect.

Multiple Introductions of Yersinia pestis during Urban Pneumonic Plague Epidemic, Madagascar, 2017.

Pneumonic plague (PP) is characterized by high infection rate, person-to-person transmission, and rapid progression to severe disease. In 2017, a PP epidemic occurred in 2 Madagascar urban areas, Antananarivo and Toamasina. We used epidemiologic data and Yersinia pestis genomic characterization to determine the sources of this epidemic. Human plague emerged independently from environmental reservoirs in rural endemic foci >20 times during August-November 2017. Confirmed cases from 5 emergences, including 4 PP cases, were documented in urban areas. Epidemiologic and genetic analyses of cases associated with the first emergence event to reach urban areas confirmed that transmission started in August; spread to Antananarivo, Toamasina, and other locations; and persisted in Antananarivo until at least mid-November. Two other Y. pestis lineages may have caused persistent PP transmission chains in Antananarivo. Multiple Y. pestis lineages were independently introduced to urban areas from several rural foci via travel of infected persons during the epidemic.

Performance of plague rapid diagnostic test compared to bacteriology: a retrospective analysis of the data collected in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a highly fatal disease caused by Yersinia pestis. Late diagnosis hampers disease outcome and effectiveness of control measures, induces death and disease spread. Advance on its diagnosis was the use of lateral flow rapid diagnostic test (RDT). METHODS: We assessed the performance of the plague RDT based on Y. pestis F1 antigen detection more than 15 years after its deployment in Madagascar. We compared the RDT with bacteriological culture results, using data from plague notified cases collected during the periods for which both tests were performed independently and systematically. RESULTS: Used with bubonic plague (BP) patient samples, RDTs had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 99.7-100%), a specificity of 67% (95% CI: 64-70%) with a good agreement between bacteriology and RDT results (86%; κ = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.73). For pneumonic plague (PP), RDT had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 91-100%) and a specificity of 59% (95% CI: 49-68%) and concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was moderate (70%; κ = 0.43, 95% CI 0.32-0.55). Analysis focusing on the 2017-2018 plague season including the unprecedented epidemic of PP showed that RDT used on BP samples still had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 85-100%) and a specificity of 82% (95% CI: 48-98%) with a very good agreement with bacteriology 94% (κ = 0.86, 95% CI 0.67-1); for PP samples, concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was poor (61%; κ = - 0.03, 95% CI -0.17 - 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: RDT performance appeared to be similar for the diagnosis of BP and PP except during the 2017 PP epidemic where RDT performance was low. This RDT, with its good sensitivity on both plague clinical forms during a normal plague season, remained a potential test for alert. Particularly for BP, it may be of great value in the decision process for the initiation of therapy. However, for PP, RDT may deliver false negative results due to inconsistent sample quality. Plague diagnosis could be improved through the development of next generation of RDTs.

Short- and long-term humoral immune response against Yersinia pestis in plague patients, Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague, a fatal disease caused by the bacillus, Yersinia pestis, still affects resources-limited countries. Information on antibody response to plague infection in human is scarce. Anti-F1 Ig G are among the known protective antibodies against Y. pestis infection. As a vaccine preventable disease, knowledge on antibody response is valuable for the development of an effective vaccine to reduce infection rate among exposed population in plague-endemic regions. In this study, we aim to describe short and long-term humoral immune responses against Y. pestis in plague-confirmed patients from Madagascar, the most affected country in the world. METHODS: Bubonic (BP) and pneumonic plague (PP) patients were recruited from plague- endemic foci in the central highlands of Madagascar between 2005 and 2017. For short-term follow-up, 6 suspected patients were enrolled and prospectively investigated for kinetics of the anti-F1 IgG response, whereas the persistence of antibodies was retrospectively studied in 71 confirmed convalescent patients, using an ELISA which was validated for the detection of plague in human blood samples in Madagascar. RESULTS: Similarly to previous findings, anti-F1 IgG rose quickly during the first week after disease onset and increased up to day 30. In the long-term study, 56% of confirmed cases remained seropositive, amongst which 60 and 40% could be considered as high- and low-antibody responders, respectively. Antibodies persisted for several years and up to 14.8 years for one individual. Antibody titers decreased over time but there was no correlation between titer and time elapsed between the disease onset and serum sampling. In addition, the seroprevalence rate was not significantly different between gender (P = 0.65) nor age (P = 0.096). CONCLUSION: Our study highlighted that the circulating antibody response to F1 antigen, which is specific to Y. pestis, may be attributable to individual immune responsiveness. The finding that a circulating anti-F1 antibody titer could persist for more than a decade in both BP and PP recovered patients, suggests its probable involvement in patients' protection. However, complementary studies including analyses of the cellular immune response to Y. pestis are required for the better understanding of long-lasting protection and development of a potential vaccine against plague.

Trends of Human Plague, Madagascar, 1998-2016.

Madagascar is more seriously affected by plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, than any other country. The Plague National Control Program was established in 1993 and includes human surveillance. During 1998-2016, a total of 13,234 suspected cases were recorded, mainly from the central highlands; 27% were confirmed cases, and 17% were presumptive cases. Patients with bubonic plague (median age 13 years) represented 93% of confirmed and presumptive cases, and patients with pneumonic plague (median age 29 years) represented 7%. Deaths were associated with delay of consultation, pneumonic form, contact with other cases, occurrence after 2009, and not reporting dead rats. A seasonal pattern was observed with recrudescence during September-March. Annual cases peaked in 2004 and decreased to the lowest incidence in 2016. This overall reduction occurred primarily for suspected cases and might be caused by improved adherence to case criteria during widespread implementation of the F1 rapid diagnostic test in 2002.

Pneumonic Plague Transmission, Moramanga, Madagascar, 2015.

During a pneumonic plague outbreak in Moramanga, Madagascar, we identified 4 confirmed, 1 presumptive, and 9 suspected plague case-patients. Human-to-human transmission among close contacts was high (reproductive number 1.44) and the case fatality rate was 71%. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Yersinia pestis isolates belonged to group q3, different from the previous outbreak.

Analysing trends and forecasting malaria epidemics in Madagascar using a sentinel surveillance network: a web-based application.

BACKGROUND: The use of a malaria early warning system (MEWS) to trigger prompt public health interventions is a key step in adding value to the epidemiological data routinely collected by sentinel surveillance systems. METHODS: This study describes a system using various epidemic thresholds and a forecasting component with the support of new technologies to improve the performance of a sentinel MEWS. Malaria-related data from 21 sentinel sites collected by Short Message Service are automatically analysed to detect malaria trends and malaria outbreak alerts with automated feedback reports. RESULTS: Roll Back Malaria partners can, through a user-friendly web-based tool, visualize potential outbreaks and generate a forecasting model. The system already demonstrated its ability to detect malaria outbreaks in Madagascar in 2014. CONCLUSION: This approach aims to maximize the usefulness of a sentinel surveillance system to predict and detect epidemics in limited-resource environments.

Surveillance and control of rabies in La Reunion, Mayotte, and Madagascar.

Mayotte and La Reunion islands are currently free of animal rabies and surveillance is performed by the French Human and Veterinary Public Health Services. However, dog rabies is still enzootic in Madagascar with 4 to 10 confirmed human cases each year. The number of antirabies medical centres in Madagascar is still scarce to provide easy access to the local population for post-exposure rabies prophylaxis. Furthermore, stray dog populations are considerable and attempts to control rabies by mass campaigns of dog vaccination have not received sufficient attention from the national health authorities. To address these challenges, an expanded program to control rabies needs to be initiated by the Malagasy authorities.

Tuberculin reactivity in first-year schoolchildren in Madagascar.

OBJECTIVE: The tuberculin skin test (TST) is an important tool in the diagnosis of tuberculosis infection in children. However, the interpretation of TST may be complicated by prior Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination. We evaluated the effect of vaccination with BCG on TST reactivity in first-year pupils attending state schools in Antananarivo. METHODS: STs were performed on 376 first-year schoolchildren, aged 6 and 7, attending two state primary schools. The relationships between epidemiological information, BCG status (vaccination, BCG scars) and TST reactivity were assessed to compare TST sensitivity between children with and without BCG vaccination and between those with and without a BCG scar. RESULT: The prevalence of positive TST results of ≥5, ≥10 and ≥ 15 mm was 20.2% (76/376), 18.3% (69/376) and 11.4% (43/376), respectively. BCG vaccination was not associated with TST reactivity, whatever the threshold used: ≥5 mm (odds ratio (OR, 1.2; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.7-2.0); ≥10 mm (OR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.6-1.7); ≥15 mm (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.3-1.2). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that in Madagascar, a positive TST result indicates TB infection (active or latent) rather than past BCG vaccination. Therefore, high BCG vaccination coverage does not appear to impair the usefulness of the TST as a tool for diagnosing tuberculosis.

Field assessment of dog as sentinel animal for plague in endemic foci of Madagascar.

The epidemiology of Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, involves vectors and reservoirs in its transmission cycle. The passive plague surveillance in Madagascar targets mainly rodent and fleas. However, carnivores are routinely surveyed as sentinels of local plague activity in some countries. The aim of this study is to assess the use of domestic dog (Canis familiaris) as sentinel animal for field surveillance of plague in a highly endemic area in Madagascar. Cross-sectional surveys of plague antibody prevalence in C. familiaris were conducted in endemic areas with contrasting histories of plague cases in humans, as well as a plague free area. Rodent capture was done in parallel to evaluate evidence for Y. pestis circulation in the primary reservoirs. In 2 sites, dogs were later re-sampled to examine evidence of seroconversion and antibody persistence. Biological samplings were performed between March 2008 and February 2009. Plague antibody detection was assessed using anti-F1 ELISA. Our study showed a significant difference in dog prevalence rates between plague-endemic and plague-free areas, with no seropositive dogs detected in the plague free area. No correlation was found between rodents and dog prevalence rates, with an absence of seropositive rodents in some area where plague circulation was indicated by seropositive dogs. This is consistent with high mortality rates in rodents following infection. Re-sampling dogs identified individuals seropositive on both occasions, indicating high rates of re-exposure and/or persistence of plague antibodies for at least 9 months. Seroconversion or seropositive juvenile dogs indicated recent local plague circulation. In Madagascar, dog surveillance for plague antibody could be useful to identify plague circulation in new areas or quiescent areas within endemic zones. Within active endemic areas, monitoring of dog populations for seroconversion (negative to positive) or seropositive juvenile dogs could be useful for identifying areas at greatest risk of human outbreaks.

Sentinel surveillance system for early outbreak detection in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Following the outbreak of chikungunya in the Indian Ocean, the Ministry of Health directed the necessary development of an early outbreak detection system. A disease surveillance team including the Institut Pasteur in Madagascar (IPM) was organized to establish a sentinel syndromic-based surveillance system. The system, which was set up in March 2007, transmits patient data on a daily basis from the various voluntary general practitioners throughout the six provinces of the country to the IPM. We describe the challenges and steps involved in developing a sentinel surveillance system and the well-timed information it provides for improving public health decision-making. METHODS: Surveillance was based on data collected from sentinel general practitioners (SGP). The SGPs report the sex, age, visit date and time, and symptoms of each new patient weekly, using forms addressed to the management team. However, the system is original in that SGPs also report data at least once a day, from Monday to Friday (number of fever cases, rapid test confirmed malaria, influenza, arboviral syndromes or diarrhoeal disease), by cellular telephone (encrypted message SMS). Information can also be validated by the management team, by mobile phone. This data transmission costs 120 ariary per day, less than US$1 per month. RESULTS: In 2008, the sentinel surveillance system included 13 health centers, and identified 5 outbreaks. Of the 218,849 visits to SGPs, 12.2% were related to fever syndromes. Of these 26,669 fever cases, 12.3% were related to Dengue-like fever, 11.1% to Influenza-like illness and 9.7% to malaria cases confirmed by a specific rapid diagnostic test. CONCLUSION: The sentinel surveillance system represents the first nationwide real-time-like surveillance system ever established in Madagascar. Our findings should encourage other African countries to develop their own syndromic surveillance systems.Prompt detection of an outbreak of infectious disease may lead to control measures that limit its impact and help prevent future outbreaks.

Dog ecology and demography in Antananarivo, 2007.

BACKGROUND: Rabies is a widespread disease in African domestic dogs and a serious public health problem in developing countries. Canine rabies became established in Africa during the 20th century, coinciding with ecologic changes that favored its emergence in canids.This paper reports the results of a cross-sectional study of dog ecology in the Antananarivo urban community in Madagascar.A questionnaire survey of 1541 households was conducted in Antananarivo from October 2007 to January 2008. The study addressed both owned and unowned dogs. Various aspects of dog ecology were determined, including size of dog population, relationship between dogs and humans, rabies vaccination. RESULTS: Dog ownership was common, with 79.6 to 94.1% (mean 88.9%) of households in the six arrondissements owning dogs. The mean owned dog to person ratio was 1 dog per 4.5 persons and differed between arrondissements (administrative districts), with ratios of 1:6.0 in the first arrondissement, 1:3.2 persons in the 2nd, 1:4.8 in the 3rd, 1:5.2 in the 4th, 1:5.6 in the 5th and 1:4.4 in the 6th arrondissement. Overall, there were more male dogs (61.3%) and the male/female sex ratio was estimated to be 1.52; however, mature females were more likely than males to be unowned (OR: 1.93, CI 95%; 1.39

Burden and epidemiology of influenza- and respiratory syncytial virus-associated severe acute respiratory illness hospitalization in Madagascar, 2011-2016.

BACKGROUND: Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are responsible for substantial global morbidity and mortality in young children and elderly individuals. Estimates of the burden of influenza- and RSV-associated hospitalization are limited in Africa. METHODS: We conducted hospital-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza- and RSV-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) among patients of any age at one hospital and a retrospective review of SARI hospitalizations in five hospitals situated in Antananarivo during 2011-2016. We estimated age-specific rates (per 100 000 population) of influenza- and RSV-associated SARI hospitalizations for the Antananarivo region and then extrapolated these rates to the national level. RESULTS: Overall, the mean annual national number of influenza-associated SARI hospitalizations for all age groups was 6609 (95% CI: 5381-7835-rate: 30.0; 95% CI: 24.4-35.6), 4468 (95% CI: 3796-5102-rate: 127.6; 95% CI: 108.4-145.7), 2141 (95% CI: 1585-2734-rate: 11.6; 95% CI: 8.6-14.8), and 339 (95% CI: 224-459-rate: 50.0; 95% CI: 36.3-74.4) among individuals aged <5, ≥5, and ≥65 years, respectively. For these same age groups, the mean annual number of RSV-associated SARI hospitalizations was 11 768 (95% CI: 10 553-12 997-rate: 53.4; 95% CI: 47.9-59.0), 11 299 (95% CI: 10 350-12 214-rate: 322.7; 95% CI: 295.6-348.8), 469 (95% CI: 203-783-rate: 2.5;95% CI: 1.1-4.2), and 36 (95% CI: 0-84-rate: 5.8; 0.0-13.5), respectively. CONCLUSION: The burden of influenza- and RSV-associated SARI hospitalization was high among children aged <5 years. These first estimates for Madagascar will enable government to make informed evidence-based decisions when allocating scarce resources and planning intervention strategies to limit the impact and spread of these viruses.

Epidemiological characteristics of an urban plague epidemic in Madagascar, August-November, 2017: an outbreak report.

BACKGROUND: Madagascar accounts for 75% of global plague cases reported to WHO, with an annual incidence of 200-700 suspected cases (mainly bubonic plague). In 2017, a pneumonic plague epidemic of unusual size occurred. The extent of this epidemic provides a unique opportunity to better understand the epidemiology of pneumonic plagues, particularly in urban settings. METHODS: Clinically suspected plague cases were notified to the Central Laboratory for Plague at Institut Pasteur de Madagascar (Antananarivo, Madagascar), where biological samples were tested. Based on cases recorded between Aug 1, and Nov 26, 2017, we assessed the epidemiological characteristics of this epidemic. Cases were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed based on the results of three types of diagnostic tests (rapid diagnostic test, molecular methods, and culture) according to 2006 WHO recommendations. FINDINGS: 2414 clinically suspected plague cases were reported, including 1878 (78%) pneumonic plague cases, 395 (16%) bubonic plague cases, one (<1%) septicaemic case, and 140 (6%) cases with unspecified clinical form. 386 (21%) of 1878 notified pneumonic plague cases were probable and 32 (2%) were confirmed. 73 (18%) of 395 notified bubonic plague cases were probable and 66 (17%) were confirmed. The case fatality ratio was higher among confirmed cases (eight [25%] of 32 cases) than probable (27 [8%] of 360 cases) or suspected pneumonic plague cases (74 [5%] of 1358 cases) and a similar trend was seen for bubonic plague cases (16 [24%] of 66 confirmed cases, four [6%] of 68 probable cases, and six [2%] of 243 suspected cases). 351 (84%) of 418 confirmed or probable pneumonic plague cases were concentrated in Antananarivo, the capital city, and Toamasina, the main seaport. All 50 isolated Yersinia pestis strains were susceptible to the tested antibiotics. INTERPRETATION: This predominantly urban plague epidemic was characterised by a large number of notifications in two major urban areas and an unusually high proportion of pneumonic forms, with only 23% having one or more positive laboratory tests. Lessons about clinical and biological diagnosis, case definition, surveillance, and the logistical management of the response identified in this epidemic are crucial to improve the response to future plague outbreaks. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, WHO, Institut Pasteur, US Department of Health and Human Services, Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, AXA Research Fund, and the INCEPTION programme.

Seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors in urban areas of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors for the transmission of HCV vary substantially between countries and geographic regions. The overall prevalence in south and east Africa region has been estimated to be 1.6% but limited information about the epidemiology of HCV infection in Madagascar is available METHODS: A cross-sectional survey for hepatitis C antibodies was conducted in 2,169 subjects of the general population of Antananarivo to determine seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors. RESULTS: The overall seroprevalence was 1.2% (25/2,169). The prevalence did not differ significantly according to gender but it increased with age (Chi2 tendency test, p < 10-5). The variable history of hospitalization, previous therapeutic injections, dental treatment, intravenous drug use, and abnormal ALT and AST were statistically significantly related with the presence of HCV antibodies. No relationship with past history of blood transfusion was observed. CONCLUSION: HCV prevalence in Madagascar seems to be similar to that in most other east African countries. Age appears to be an important risk factor. Iatrogenic causes of HCV transmission need to be further evaluated because all HCV cases had a history of receiving therapeutic injections and data suggested a cumulative effect in relation with therapeutic injections.

Evaluating Effectiveness of Mass and Continuous Long-lasting Insecticidal Net Distributions Over Time in Madagascar: A Sentinel Surveillance Based Epidemiological Study.

BACKGROUND: The reduction of global malaria burden over the past 15 years is much attributed to the expansion of mass distribution campaigns (MDCs) of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN). In Madagascar, two LUN MDCs were implemented and one district also benefited from a community-based continuous distribution (CB-CD). Malaria incidence dropped but eventually rebounded after a decade. METHODS: Data from a sentinel surveillance network over the 2009-2015 period was analyzed. Alerts were defined as w eekly number o f malaria cases exceeding the 90th percentile value for three consecutive weeks. Statistical analyses assessed the temporal relationship between LLIN MDCs and (i) number of malaria cases and (ii) malaria alerts detected, and (iii) the effect of a combination of MDCs and a CB-CD in Toamasina District. FINDINGS: Analyses showed an increase of 13.6 points and 21.4 points in the percentile value of weekly malaria cases during the second and the third year following the MDC of LLINs respectively. The percentage of alert-free sentinel sites was 98.2% during the first year after LLIN MDC, 56.7% during the second year and 31.5% during the third year. The number of weekly malaria cases decreased by 14% during the CB-CD in Toamasina District. In contrast, sites without continuous distribution had a 12% increase of malaria cases. INTERPRETATION: These findings support the malaria-preventive effectiveness of MDCs in Madagascar but highlight their limited duration when not followed by continuous distribution. The resulting policy implications are crucial to sustain reductions in malaria burden in high transmission settings.

Four years into the Indian ocean field epidemiology training programme.

INTRODUCTION: Following the 2005-6 chikungunya outbreak, a project to strengthen regional Public Health preparedness in the Indian Ocean was implemented. It includes the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion (France) and Seychelles. A Field Epidemiology Training Programme (FETP-OI) was started in 2011 to develop a pool of well-trained intervention epidemiologists. METHODS: The FETP-OI consists of two years of supervised, learning-by-doing, on-the-job training at national sites involved in disease surveillance and response. It includes work placements at the Madagascar Pasteur Institute and the French regional epidemiology unit in Reunion and up to three training courses per year. Training objectives include epidemiological surveillance, outbreak investigations, research studies, scientific communication and transfer of competencies. RESULTS: In four years, two cohorts of in total 15 fellows originating from four countries followed the FETP-OI. They led 42 surveillance projects (71% routine management, 14% evaluations, 12% setup, 3% other) and investigated 36 outbreak alerts, 58% of them in Madagascar; most investigations (72%) concerned foodborne pathogens, plague or malaria. Fellows performed 18 studies (44% descriptive analyses, 22% disease risk factors, and 34% on other subjects), and presented results during regional and international conferences through 26 oral and 15 poster presentations. Four articles were published in regional Public Health bulletins and several scientific manuscripts are in process. CONCLUSION: The FETP-OI has created a regional force of intervention consisting of field epidemiologists and trained supervisors using the same technical language and epidemiological methods. The third cohort is now ongoing. Technically and financially sustainable FETP-OI projects help addressing public health priorities of the Indian Ocean.

Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007.

Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75-200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases worldwide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio-temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approximation for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 m in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modeling framework to assess the relationship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded.

Has Madagascar lost its exceptional leptospirosis free-like status?

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is a widespread but underreported cause of morbidity and mortality. It has rarely been reported in either humans or animals in Madagascar. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of the inhabitants in Moramanga, Madagascar, in June 2011, to estimate the prevalence of human infection using the microscopic agglutination test (MAT). This activity was carried out as part of a workshop implemented by the Pasteur Institute of Madagascar, focusing on surveillance with a one week field study and targeting the health staff of the district level. RESULTS: In total, we sampled 678 inhabitants from 263 households. The sex ratio (M/F) was 0.65 and the mean age 26.7 years. We obtained a value of 2.9% for the first recorded seroprevalence of this disease in the human community of Moramanga. Questionnaire responses revealed frequent contacts between humans and rodents in Moramanga. However, activities involving cattle were identified as a risk factor significantly associated with seropositivity (OR=3). CONCLUSION: Leptospirosis remains a neglected disease in Madagascar. This study highlights the need to quantify the public health impact of this neglected disease in a more large scale, in all the country and to establish point-of-care laboratories in remote areas.

A simple and convenient microtiter plate assay for the detection of bactericidal antibodies to Vibrio cholerae O1 and Vibrio cholerae O139.

It is believed that the correlate of protection for cholera can be determined by the serum vibriocidal assay. The currently available vibriocidal assays, based on the conventional agar plating technique, are labor intensive. We developed a simple and convenient microtiter plate assay for the detection of vibriocidal antibodies that is equally as efficient for Vibrio cholerae O1 and for V. cholerae O139. The addition of succinate and neotetrazolium made it possible to measure the growth of surviving bacterial target cells by monitoring a color change. We evaluated assay parameters (target strains, growth of target cells, complement source and concentration) that may affect the reproducibility of the method for V. cholerae O139. The results obtained with the microtiter plate assay were uniformly similar to those obtained with the conventional agar plating assay, when testing both the Inaba and Ogawa serotypes of V. cholerae O1. The microtiter plate assay was also convenient for measuring the activity of animal sera and mouse monoclonal antibodies.