Studying interactions among anthropogenic stressors in freshwater ecosystems: A systematic review of 2396 multiple-stressor experiments.

Understanding the interactions among anthropogenic stressors is critical for effective conservation and management of ecosystems. Freshwater scientists have invested considerable resources in conducting factorial experiments to disentangle stressor interactions by testing their individual and combined effects. However, the diversity of stressors and systems studied has hindered previous syntheses of this body of research. To overcome this challenge, we used a novel machine learning framework to identify relevant studies from over 235,000 publications. Our synthesis resulted in a new dataset of 2396 multiple-stressor experiments in freshwater systems. By summarizing the methods used in these studies, quantifying trends in the popularity of the investigated stressors, and performing co-occurrence analysis, we produce the most comprehensive overview of this diverse field of research to date. We provide both a taxonomy grouping the 909 investigated stressors into 31 classes and an open-source and interactive version of the dataset (https://jamesaorr.shinyapps.io/freshwater-multiple-stressors/). Inspired by our results, we provide a framework to help clarify whether statistical interactions detected by factorial experiments align with stressor interactions of interest, and we outline general guidelines for the design of multiple-stressor experiments relevant to any system. We conclude by highlighting the research directions required to better understand freshwater ecosystems facing multiple stressors.

Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved general understanding of phenotypic and demographic responses to climate change and management implications.

Null Models for the Opportunity for Selection.

AbstractCrow's "opportunity for selection" (I=variance in relative fitness) is an important albeit controversial eco-evolutionary concept, particularly regarding the most appropriate null model(s). Here, we treat this topic in a comprehensive way by considering opportunities for both fertility selection (If) and viability selection (Im) for discrete generations, both seasonal and lifetime reproductive success in age-structured species, and experimental designs that include either a full or partial life cycle, with complete enumeration or random subsampling. For each scenario, a null model that includes random demographic stochasticity can be constructed that follows Crow's initial formulation that I=If+Im. The two components of I are qualitatively different. Whereas an adjusted If (ΔIf) can be computed that accounts for random demographic stochasticity in offspring number, Im cannot be similarly adjusted in the absence of data on phenotypic traits under viability selection. Including as potential parents some individuals that die before reproductive age produces an overall zero-inflated Poisson null model. It is always important to remember that (1) Crow's I represents only the opportunity for selection and not selection itself and (2) the species' biology can lead to random stochasticity in offspring number that is either overdispersed or underdispersed compared with the Poisson (Wright-Fisher) expectation.

The opportunity for selection: A slippery concept in ecology and evolution.

Natural selection can only occur if individuals differ in fitness. For this reason, the variance in relative fitness has been equated with the 'opportunity for selection' ( I ), which has a long, albeit somewhat controversial, history. In this paper we discuss the use/misuse of I and related metrics in evolutionary ecology. The opportunity is only realised if some fraction of I is caused by trait variation. Thus, I > 0 does not imply that selection is occurring, as sometimes erroneously assumed, because all fitness variation could be independent of phenotype. The selection intensity on any given trait cannot exceed I , but this upper limit will never be reached because (a) stochastic factors always affect fitness, and (b) there might be multiple traits under selection. The expected magnitude of the stochastic component of I is negatively correlated with mean fitness. Uncertainty in realised I is also larger when mean fitness or population/sample size are low. Variation in I across time or space thus can be dominated (or solely driven) by variation in the strength of demographic stochasticity. We illustrate these points using simulations and empirical data from a population study on great tits Parus major. Our analysis shows that the scope for fecundity selection in the great tits is substantially higher when using annual number of recruits as the fitness measure, rather than fledglings or eggs, even after adjusting for the dependence of I on mean fitness. This suggests nonrandom survival of juveniles across families between life stages. Indeed, previous work on this population has shown that offspring recruitment is often nonrandom with respect to clutch size and laying date of parents, for example. We conclude that one cannot make direct inferences about selection based on fitness data alone. However, examining variation in ∆ I F (the opportunity for fecundity selection adjusted for mean fitness) across life stages, years or environments can offer clues as to when/where fecundity selection might be strongest, which can be useful for research planning and experimental design.

Core surgical training: The influence of time and date on interview outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Core Surgical Training has become increasingly competitive over the last 5 years with the competition ratio reaching 4.16 in 2021 compared to 2.31 in 2015. This is thought to be due to two key factors: a large yearly increase in the number of applicants and an unchanging number of jobs. Steps are taken by HEE to ensure the process is as standardised and fair as possible. Interview date and time selection remains the only aspect of the process that candidates currently control. We aim to explore whether time and date of an interview has any impact on interview scores within CST. METHODS: This study is a national, retrospective cohort study. A freedom of information act request was submitted to HEE to acquire anonymised interview scores and date/time of interview for all CST interviews conducted for the 2022-2023 cohort. RESULTS: Across the two-week period whereby interviews were held 1264 interviews were undertaken. Candidates with morning interviews had a mean score of 111 (±16) and candidates in the afternoon had a mean score of 108 (±18.5) (p = 0.023). Candidates interviewing in week 1 had a mean score of 107 (±18) and candidates interviewing in week 2 had a mean score of 112 (±16.4) (p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: A small difference in score has a significant impact for candidates with their geographical location, specialty choice or event enrolment in the core training programme potentially impacted. It is therefore imperative that these findings receive further evaluation going forward to ensure the process is fair and robust for all participants.

Autumn outmigrants in brown trout (Salmo trutta) are not a demographic dead-end.

Genetic identity analysis and PIT (passive integrated transponder) tagging were used to examine the freshwater return rates and phenotypic characteristics of n = 1791 downstream migrating juvenile Salmo trutta in the Burrishoole catchment (northwest Ireland) across the period September 2017 to December 2020. In this system, juveniles out-migrate (move from freshwater into brackish or marine habitats) in every month of the year, with distinct seasonal peaks in spring (March through June; mostly silvered smolts) and autumn (September through December; mostly younger, unsilvered fry or parr). Both types exhibited a sex-bias towards females, which was stronger in spring (78% females) than in autumn outmigrants (67%). Sixty-nine returning fish were matched back to previous juvenile outmigrants, and similar return rates were found for spring outmigrants (5.0%), autumn outmigrants (3.3%) and fish that out-migrated outside of spring or autumn (2.8%). Spring and autumn outmigrants returned at similar dates (typically mid to late July), but autumn fish were away for longer periods (median = 612 days; spring outmigrants = 104 days). Autumn outmigrants were 25% smaller than spring outmigrants at outmigration and 6% smaller on their return, and within both groups smaller/younger outmigrants spent longer away than larger/older outmigrants. Autumn outmigrants were more likely to return unsilvered as "slob" trout (84%) than spring outmigrants (31%), suggesting they make greater use of brackish habitats that might be safer, but less productive, than fully marine habitats. Nonetheless, both types also produced silvered "sea trout" (≥1+ sea-age), implying neither is locked into a single life-history strategy. The findings emphasise that autumn outmigrants and the transitional habitats that support their persistence should not be overlooked in salmonid management and conservation.

Personalized brain stimulation for effective neurointervention across participants.

Accumulating evidence from human-based research has highlighted that the prevalent one-size-fits-all approach for neural and behavioral interventions is inefficient. This approach can benefit one individual, but be ineffective or even detrimental for another. Studying the efficacy of the large range of different parameters for different individuals is costly, time-consuming and requires a large sample size that makes such research impractical and hinders effective interventions. Here an active machine learning technique is presented across participants-personalized Bayesian optimization (pBO)-that searches available parameter combinations to optimize an intervention as a function of an individual's ability. This novel technique was utilized to identify transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) frequency and current strength combinations most likely to improve arithmetic performance, based on a subject's baseline arithmetic abilities. The pBO was performed across all subjects tested, building a model of subject performance, capable of recommending parameters for future subjects based on their baseline arithmetic ability. pBO successfully searches, learns, and recommends parameters for an effective neurointervention as supported by behavioral, simulation, and neural data. The application of pBO in human-based research opens up new avenues for personalized and more effective interventions, as well as discoveries of protocols for treatment and translation to other clinical and non-clinical domains.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection.

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Associations between metabolic traits and growth rate in brown trout (Salmo trutta) depend on thermal regime.

Metabolism defines the energetic cost of life, yet we still know relatively little about why intraspecific variation in metabolic rate arises and persists. Spatio-temporal variation in selection potentially maintains differences, but relationships between metabolic traits (standard metabolic rate (SMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR), and aerobic scope) and fitness across contexts are unresolved. We show that associations between SMR, MMR, and growth rate (a key fitness-related trait) vary depending on the thermal regime (a potential selective agent) in offspring of wild-sampled brown trout from two populations reared for approximately 15 months in either a cool or warm (+1.8°C) regime. SMR was positively related to growth in the cool, but negatively related in the warm regime. The opposite patterns were found for MMR and growth associations (positive in warm, negative in the cool regime). Mean SMR, but not MMR, was lower in warm regimes within both populations (i.e. basal metabolic costs were reduced at higher temperatures), consistent with an adaptive acclimation response that optimizes growth. Metabolic phenotypes thus exhibited a thermally sensitive metabolic 'floor' and a less flexible metabolic 'ceiling'. Our findings suggest a role for growth-related fluctuating selection in shaping patterns of metabolic variation that is likely important in adapting to climate change.

Harnessing Escherichia coli for Bio-Based Production of Formate under Pressurized H2 and CO2 Gases.

Escherichia coli is a Gram-negative bacterium that is a workhorse for biotechnology. The organism naturally performs a mixed-acid fermentation under anaerobic conditions where it synthesizes formate hydrogenlyase (FHL-1). The physiological role of the enzyme is the disproportionation of formate into H2 and CO2. However, the enzyme has been observed to catalyze hydrogenation of CO2 given the correct conditions, and so it has possibilities in bio-based carbon capture and storage if it can be harnessed as a hydrogen-dependent CO2 reductase (HDCR). In this study, an E. coli host strain was engineered for the continuous production of formic acid from H2 and CO2 during bacterial growth in a pressurized batch bioreactor. Incorporation of tungsten, in place of molybdenum, in FHL-1 helped to impose a degree of catalytic bias on the enzyme. This work demonstrates that it is possible to couple cell growth to simultaneous, unidirectional formate production from carbon dioxide and develops a process for growth under pressurized gases. IMPORTANCE Greenhouse gas emissions, including waste carbon dioxide, are contributing to global climate change. A basket of solutions is needed to steadily reduce emissions, and one approach is bio-based carbon capture and storage. Here, we present our latest work on harnessing a novel biological solution for carbon capture. The Escherichia coli formate hydrogenlyase (FHL-1) was engineered to be constitutively expressed. Anaerobic growth under pressurized H2 and CO2 gases was established, and aqueous formic acid was produced as a result. Incorporation of tungsten into the enzyme in place of molybdenum proved useful in poising FHL-1 as a hydrogen-dependent CO2 reductase (HDCR).

Impact of delays to incubation and storage temperature on blood culture results: a multi-centre study.

BACKGROUND: Blood cultures are one of the most important tests performed by microbiology laboratories. Many hospitals, particularly in low and middle-income countries, lack either microbiology services or staff to provide 24 h services resulting in delays to blood culture incubation. There is insufficient guidance on how to transport/store blood cultures if delays before incubation are unavoidable, particularly if ambient temperatures are high. This study set out to address this knowledge gap. METHODS: In three South East Asian countries, four different blood culture systems (two manual and two automated) were used to test blood cultures spiked with five common bacterial pathogens. Prior to incubation the spiked blood culture bottles were stored at different temperatures (25 °C, in a cool-box at ambient temperature, or at 40 °C) for different lengths of time (0 h, 6 h, 12 h or 24 h). The impacts of these different storage conditions on positive blood culture yield and on time to positivity were examined. RESULTS: There was no significant loss in yield when blood cultures were stored < 24 h at 25 °C, however, storage for 24 h at 40 °C decreased yields and longer storage times increased times to detection. CONCLUSION: Blood cultures should be incubated with minimal delay to maximize pathogen recovery and timely result reporting, however, this study provides some reassurance that unavoidable delays can be managed to minimize negative impacts. If delays to incubation ≥ 12 h are unavoidable, transportation at a temperature not exceeding 25 °C, and blind sub-cultures prior to incubation should be considered.

Elizabethkingia anophelis Infection in Infants, Cambodia, 2012-2018.

We describe 6 clinical isolates of Elizabethkingia anophelis from a pediatric referral hospital in Cambodia, along with 1 isolate reported from Thailand. Improving diagnostic microbiological methods in resource-limited settings will increase the frequency of reporting for this pathogen. Consensus on therapeutic options is needed, especially for resource-limited settings.

Captive-bred Atlantic salmon released into the wild have fewer offspring than wild-bred fish and decrease population productivity.

The release of captive-bred animals into the wild is commonly practised to restore or supplement wild populations but comes with a suite of ecological and genetic consequences. Vast numbers of hatchery-reared fish are released annually, ostensibly to restore/enhance wild populations or provide greater angling returns. While previous studies have shown that captive-bred fish perform poorly in the wild relative to wild-bred conspecifics, few have measured individual lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and how this affects population productivity. Here, we analyse data on Atlantic salmon from an intensely studied catchment into which varying numbers of captive-bred fish have escaped/been released and potentially bred over several decades. Using a molecular pedigree, we demonstrate that, on average, the LRS of captive-bred individuals was only 36% that of wild-bred individuals. A significant LRS difference remained after excluding individuals that left no surviving offspring, some of which might have simply failed to spawn, consistent with transgenerational effects on offspring survival. The annual productivity of the mixed population (wild-bred plus captive-bred) was lower in years where captive-bred fish comprised a greater fraction of potential spawners. These results bolster previous empirical and theoretical findings that intentional stocking, or non-intentional escapees, threaten, rather than enhance, recipient natural populations.

Food and temperature stressors have opposing effects in determining flexible migration decisions in brown trout (Salmo trutta).

With rapid global change, organisms in natural systems are exposed to a multitude of stressors that likely co-occur, with uncertain impacts. We explored individual and cumulative effects of co-occurring environmental stressors on the striking, yet poorly understood, phenomenon of facultative migration. We reared offspring of a brown trout population that naturally demonstrates facultative anadromy (sea migration), under different environmental stressor treatments and measured life history responses in terms of migratory tactics and freshwater maturation rates. Juvenile fish were exposed to reduced food availability, temperatures elevated to 1.8°C above natural conditions or both treatments in combination over 18 months of experimental tank rearing. When considered in isolation, reduced food had negative effects on the size, mass and condition of fish across the experiment. We detected variable effects of warm temperatures (negative effects on size and mass, but positive effect on lipids). When combined with food restriction, temperature effects on these traits were less pronounced, implying antagonistic stressor effects on morphological traits. Stressors combined additively, but had opposing effects on life history tactics: migration increased and maturation rates decreased under low food conditions, whereas the opposite occurred in the warm temperature treatment. Not all fish had expressed maturation or migration tactics by the end of the study, and the frequency of these 'unassigned' fish was higher in food deprivation treatments, but lower in warm treatments. Fish showing migration tactics were smaller and in poorer condition than fish showing maturation tactics, but were similar in size to unassigned fish. We further detected effects of food restriction on hypo-osmoregulatory function of migrants that may influence the fitness benefits of the migratory tactic at sea. We also highlight that responses to multiple stressors may vary depending on the response considered. Collectively, our results indicate contrasting effects of environmental stressors on life history trajectories in a facultatively migratory species.

Associations Between Two Domains of Social Adversity and Recovery Among Persons with Serious Mental Illnesses Being Treated in Community Mental Health Centers.

As mental health services are increasingly embracing the recovery model, we conducted a study to better understand how social adversity impacts recovery. We also examined how associations between social adversity and recovery are influenced (moderated or mediated) by symptom severity. Data on seven social adversity measures, eight recovery measures, and symptom severity were collected from 300 English-speaking participants, ages 18-65 years, with a diagnosis of a psychotic or mood disorder, from five community mental health agencies in diverse neighborhoods in Washington, D.C. We employed standard correlation, exploratory factor analyses, analysis of variance, and hierarchic regression procedures. Diagnostic category and gender impacted Home Environment Adversities (e.g., food insecurity, perceived neighborhood disorder), the diagnostic category-by-gender interaction influenced Social and Economic Adversities (e.g., years of education and income), and gender affected Recovery. Controlling for diagnostic category and gender, Social and Economic Adversities accounted for 1.7% of variance in Recovery, while Home Environment Adversities accounted for 8.6% (their joint influence was 3.4%). Although symptom severity did not moderate these associations, it partially mediated the effect of Social and Economic Adversities on Recovery, and substantially mediated the effect of Home Environment Adversities on Recovery. The extent to which patients with serious mental illnesses experience recovery may be meaningfully influenced not only by symptoms, but by their social and environmental circumstances.

Anadromy, potamodromy and residency in brown trout Salmo trutta: the role of genes and the environment.

Brown trout Salmo trutta is endemic to Europe, western Asia and north-western Africa; it is a prominent member of freshwater and coastal marine fish faunas. The species shows two resident (river-resident, lake-resident) and three main facultative migratory life histories (downstream-upstream within a river system, fluvial-adfluvial potamodromous; to and from a lake, lacustrine-adfluvial (inlet) or allacustrine (outlet) potamodromous; to and from the sea, anadromous). River-residency v. migration is a balance between enhanced feeding and thus growth advantages of migration to a particular habitat v. the costs of potentially greater mortality and energy expenditure. Fluvial-adfluvial migration usually has less feeding improvement, but less mortality risk, than lacustrine-adfluvial or allacustrine and anadromous, but the latter vary among catchments as to which is favoured. Indirect evidence suggests that around 50% of the variability in S. trutta migration v. residency, among individuals within a population, is due to genetic variance. This dichotomous decision can best be explained by the threshold-trait model of quantitative genetics. Thus, an individual's physiological condition (e.g., energy status) as regulated by environmental factors, genes and non-genetic parental effects, acts as the cue. The magnitude of this cue relative to a genetically predetermined individual threshold, governs whether it will migrate or sexually mature as a river-resident. This decision threshold occurs early in life and, if the choice is to migrate, a second threshold probably follows determining the age and timing of migration. Migration destination (mainstem river, lake, or sea) also appears to be genetically programmed. Decisions to migrate and ultimate destination result in a number of subsequent consequential changes such as parr-smolt transformation, sexual maturity and return migration. Strong associations with one or a few genes have been found for most aspects of the migratory syndrome and indirect evidence supports genetic involvement in all parts. Thus, migratory and resident life histories potentially evolve as a result of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes, which alter relative survival and reproduction. Knowledge of genetic determinants of the various components of migration in S. trutta lags substantially behind that of Oncorhynchus mykiss and other salmonines. Identification of genetic markers linked to migration components and especially to the migration-residency decision, is a prerequisite for facilitating detailed empirical studies. In order to predict effectively, through modelling, the effects of environmental changes, quantification of the relative fitness of different migratory traits and of their heritabilities, across a range of environmental conditions, is also urgently required in the face of the increasing pace of such changes.

Cortical contributions to anticipatory postural adjustments in the trunk.

KEY POINTS: Increases in activity of trunk muscles that occur prior to, or concurrent with, a voluntary limb movement are termed anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs). APAs are important for maintaining postural stability in response to perturbations but the neural mechanisms underlying APAs remain unclear. Our results showed that corticospinal excitability of erector spinae (ES) muscle increased at 40 ms prior to rapid shoulder flexion, with a reduction in intracortical inhibition and no change in spinal excitability. Changes in corticospinal excitability were observed in ES, with similar excitability profiles between standing and lying positions, but were not observed in rectus abdominis. We suggest that the neural control of postural adjustments involves changes at a cortical level, which in part are due to reduced inhibition. ABSTRACT: Voluntary limb movements are associated with increases in trunk muscle activity, some of which occur within a time window considered too fast to be induced by sensory feedback; these increases are termed anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs). Although it is known that the function of APAs is to maintain postural stability in response to perturbations, excitability of the corticospinal projections to the trunk muscles during the APAs remains unclear. Thirty-four healthy subjects performed rapid shoulder flexion in response to a visual cue in standing and lying positions. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) was delivered over the trunk motor cortex to examine motor evoked potentials (MEPs) in erector spinae (ES) and in rectus abdominis (RA) muscles at several time points prior to the rise in electromyographic activity (EMG) of anterior deltoid (AD) muscle. TMS was also used to assess short-interval intracortical inhibition (SICI) and cervicomedullary MEPs (CMEPs) in ES in the standing position. MEPs in ES were larger at time points closer to the rise in AD EMG in both standing and lying positions, whereas MEPs in RA did not differ over the time course examined. Notably, SICI was reduced at time points closer to the rise in AD EMG, with no change in CMEPs. Our results demonstrate that increasing excitability of corticospinal projections to the trunk muscles prior to a voluntary limb movement is likely to be cortical in origin and is muscle specific.

Maternal Effects in a Wild Songbird Are Environmentally Plastic but Only Marginally Alter the Rate of Adaptation.

Despite ample evidence for the presence of maternal effects (MEs) in a variety of traits and strong theoretical indications for their evolutionary consequences, empirical evidence to what extent MEs can influence evolutionary responses to selection remains ambiguous. We tested the degree to which MEs can alter the rate of adaptation of a key life-history trait, clutch size, using an individual-based model approach parameterized with experimental data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We modeled two types of MEs: (i) an environmentally plastic ME, in which the relationship between maternal and offspring clutch size depended on the maternal environment via offspring condition, and (ii) a fixed ME, in which this relationship was constant. Although both types of ME affected the rate of adaptation following an abrupt environmental shift, the overall effects were small. We conclude that evolutionary consequences of MEs are modest at best in our study system, at least for the trait and the particular type of ME we considered here. A closer link between theoretical and empirical work on MEs would hence be useful to obtain accurate predictions about the evolutionary consequences of MEs more generally.

The portfolio effect cushions mosquito populations and malaria transmission against vector control interventions.

BACKGROUND: Portfolio effects were first described as a basis for mitigating against financial risk by diversifying investments. Distributing investment across several different assets can stabilize returns and reduce risks by statistical averaging of individual asset dynamics that often correlate weakly or negatively with each other. The same simple probability theory is equally applicable to complex ecosystems, in which biological and environmental diversity stabilizes ecosystems against natural and human-mediated perturbations. Given the fundamental limitations to how well the full complexity of ecosystem dynamics can be understood or anticipated, the portfolio effect concept provides a simple framework for more critical data interpretation and pro-active conservation management. Applied to conservation ecology purposes, the portfolio effect concept informs management strategies emphasizing identification and maintenance of key ecological processes that generate complexity, diversity and resilience against inevitable, often unpredictable perturbations. IMPLICATIONS: Applied to the reciprocal goal of eliminating the least valued elements of global biodiversity, specifically lethal malaria parasites and their vector mosquitoes, simply understanding the portfolio effect concept informs more cautious interpretation of surveillance data and simulation model predictions. Malaria transmission mediated by guilds of multiple vectors in complex landscapes, with highly variable climatic and meteorological conditions, as well as changing patterns of land use and other human behaviours, will systematically tend to be more resilient to attack with vector control than it appears based on even the highest quality surveillance data or predictive models. CONCLUSION: Malaria vector control programmes may need to be more ambitious, interpret their short-to-medium term assessments of intervention impact more cautiously, and manage stakeholder expectations more conservatively than has often been the case thus far.

Transcranial electrical stimulation (tES) mechanisms and its effects on cortical excitability and connectivity.

In this review, we describe transcranial electrical stimulation (tES) techniques currently being used in neuroscientific research, including transcranial direct current (tDCS), alternating current (tACS) and random noise (tRNS) stimulation techniques. We explain how these techniques are used and summarise the proposed mechanisms of action for each technique. We continue by describing how each method has been used to alter endogenous neuronal oscillations and connectivity between brain regions, and we conclude by highlighting the varying effects of stimulation and discussing the future direction of these stimulation techniques in research.